Sports wagering/handicapping (not gambling) for a living.

[upstatenycapper]

I consider sports wagering/handicapping an art form as opposed to someone going to his/her local, offshore, or casino and drop (gamble) a few beens.

I am not someone who follows trends, or crunches numbers all night long. I dont believe in touts and I "STAY AWAY" FROM HIGH-PROFILE TV MATCHUPS and concentrate on obscure college programs like Ark-St, and Montana. I actually follow 20 or more programs.

I rely on an extensive collection of video tape.........400 college football games and 250 college basketball games. I am huge into the college wagering scene. The tapes go back to the 99 season. I wanted to give myself at least 3 full years to compile tape and learn thecoaching philosophy of the teams I follow.

I understand the importance of money management and I pride myself in my ability not to chase late afternoon and night games to off-set any loss incurred from early afternoon defeats.

I know several individuals making a nice living from sports wagering.

Can "REALLY" people do it?

[ATX]

ABSOLUTELY!!

be careful with the methodology you are employing, it is borderline OVERLOAD, which is almost as bad as misinformation.

You may be looking for TOO BIG an edge for a warranted play, and I have seen a lot of people get in trouble with this. Typically the people I speak of put too much of their bankroll on events they historically won 60% or more of the time. Even if you hit 65% over time on a select few events you will lose 10 in a row at some point. Some people will avoid it for years, but it's elementary statistical probability. I started out in a similar fashion (BigXII tho') and began 'branching out' by putting smaller wagers on other sports, leagues, etc until I felt I had a qualified edge. I may put 1.5-2.5% on some BIGXII games while wagering .5%-1.2% on other conference games, since I have access to better info, and follow these teams more.

You have to realize that you will have many losing days, and quite a few losing weeks, and it takes time to understand when to play a game b/c it has value versus chasing to have a winning day. High volume minimizes losing months, I dont have many of those, but I dont remember too many good Februarys (for some reason??). I have a list of strong angles that realistically I could do nothing and still make a hefty profit, but I dont rely on this working forever. I also add the majority of profit by playing on value almost every day. I have identified certain situations in which in the past have consistently lost money for me, I now do the opposite.

[upstatenycapper]

ATX:

Thanks for the reply.

"be careful with the methodology you are employing, it is borderline OVERLOAD, which is almost as bad as misinformation."

Explain?

Video does not lie. No? Coaches know player match-ups and video allows me to understand the philosophy on both sides of the ball.

Example: 2003, in Conference-USA; video tells me the defensive line of TCU will blitz, blitz, and blitz the offensive line of Army pressuring Dahman, or Nevells forcing either qb to throw the errant pass. Guess what? Sanders, Godbolt, and Walker are all in the TCU backfield waiting.

Because I have the video and follow both teams, I have an idea of what the line is going to be and then make my adjustments.

Video is very important.

[dimeplayersonly]

upstatenycapper...............the most usefull handicapping tools that you mention are "money management and discipline"

now that will not automatically enable you to make a living betting sports........

i catagorize my players as the following

1. squares.........no definition needed

2. educated.......understands money-management,doesnt chase losses, doesnt take bad numbers, understands value, scalpers and middlers fall into this catagory, realize the importance of multiple outs ect..

3. sharps........heres were some might disagree with me, IMO. sharps wager solely on key information, most of the people on my book that i consider sharp, dont handicapp at all, they follow syndicate moves and get down at the best numbers..

you my friend would seem to fall into the "educated" catagory

[dimeplayersonly]

........oops got off track of your topic...


IMO........out of my group only the sharps are able to make a living betting on sports......

but even they can have long streaks of losing...all goes back to money management and discipline..

[upstatenycapper]

Dime:

Man, thanks for the compliment. I appreciate it!

Believe me. I am trying to move up a catagory.......lol!

Your right. Money management and discipline are probably the two most important factors when wagering on sports though the availablity of information/education is priceless. It took me some time to compile all that game tape......whew!

I also know the importance of having a "bankroll" but would you not agree that having the "confidence" in your ability to disect all the information is just as important?

[dimeplayersonly]

extended losing streaks can play havoc with anyones confidence, so its important to have discipline.....

streaks play a large role in gambling, when your hot you have to take advantage of the situation, likewise when your cold you have to bet accordingly....

[DE NIRO]

hey dime i book also (only appox 20 guys)

thank god everyone is squares(doesnt mean they cant get hot as hell though)

can you explain more about "syndicates and there moves" thanks

[upstatenycapper]

"Syndicate's" are major action players that bet when they have credible information. These guys can swing a line BIG TIME!

Look into the story of the computer group. I think thats the story of Billy Walters.

I knew a few guys from White Plains who employed computer programers and tape collectors. They made a mint then retired.

BASTARDS!

[ATX]

information overload is a little difficult for me to exactly define. If you are concentrating on one conference with less than a dozen teams this strategy (watching a lot of tape numerous times) has worked for me. It's actually how I started. When I expanded my wagers to a lot of other teams, I tried to employ the same strategy- I literally watched tape 12 hours a day on one monitor with a monitor for line moves and a monitor with matchups all side-by-side. My brain soon felt like mush, and I had to take time off frequently. But all the work from this strategy paid off. The human brain begins to recognize patterns and correlations between different forms of data, and I ended up with a lot of angles that I can easily live off of each year. I guess my point about information overload is the fact that I sometimes put 16 hours into one day's games and sometimes I put less than an hour into it, and I still have better results with the least amount of effort. The only thing I can contribute this to is information overload and going against initial intuition. Dont ever change your strategy if it is working, but always look for ways to improve your profit margin. What worked for me was branching out and wagering on more games, but putting smaller wagers on conferences/teams that I wasnt as familiar with- hoping to show profit while learning. I'm always interested in hearing how other people do things, a lot of people thought I was crazy- at first.

As far as sharps/squares goes, dont worry about what people want to label you. With a lot of work and and some experience, you may be able to line a lot of the games with sharper numbers than the books. And that isnt even totally necessary. All you have to do is choose the right side 54% of the time over a large number of wagers for a huge up-side. Sounds simple, but it's a fierce psychological battle, and not many consistently pull it off. Losing streaks are one of the toughest things about this market, and the primary reason for solid money management. One of the reasons that I wager on so many games is it helps my psyche. I have mentioned this before, but I lose 16-17 out of 20 games at least once a year. And usually in one day. When this happens it's very important for me NOT to stop or change my strategy (if I have been doing what I usually do) for two reasons: 1. taking a day off causes me to remember that bad streak and causes more damage to my confidence. 2. My percentage of winning days increases after a losing day. That does NOT mean that I chase, if anything I go slightly smaller. And I dont depend on this happening, I just keep accurate records, and I'm glad that it does. Another advantage to utilize is local lines, but it's usually a good idea to disguise these plays b/c of dual lines. One other thing, I didnt start betting on more than 3-5 games per day until I consistently beat vig of -120 on straights, after that the math said it was dumb not to.

[upstatenycapper]

ATX:

EXCELLENT REPLY!

Very cool man.

Believe it or not, I still have to work on my betting confidence. I cant count the amount of times I layed off a game because of a lack of confidence only to find out later had I placed my wager I would have won.........DAMN!

[ATX]

exactly what I went through for a while. It started getting inside my head, especially when the picks that I actually put money on lost that day. Does anyone just ignore some games? I dont have an opinion on very few games. I go smaller on leans and these show profit at the end of the year and the ROI on these isnt a whole lot worse than regular plays. Plays that I risk quite a bit on still rule the roost and I'm glad to say hit at the highest rate of all my plays. What I started doing on leans was wagering quite a bit less and tracking them separately. After a qualified sample size I reviewed these plays and noted whether or not I needed a strategy adjustment. Of course, I review everything daily as well, but if my leans go 2-6 in one day I dont abandon a strategy just because of that one day. If after 100 plays or so I see that something has ended up hitting at less than 47% then I try to single out the factors that caused this and look to DO THE OPPOSITE. Loss differential plays an important role. If I lost 25% or more of dog ML's by 2 pts or less then the strategy may be correct, it may have just been a series of bad beats in which the plays did have value just didnt happen to cash during this stretch. If I was losing 25% or more of plays by fairly large margins- where it was obvious that my chosen side was the wrong option then that is when a strategy needs serious review. When you put money on a lean it really makes you focus more on some angles/correlations that you might simply overlook if you passed. If you are losing money on these leans, and you are not wagering recreationally, I guarantee you it will get your attention. And only with your full attention will you recognize the strong correlations that drive value. The majority of sports market traders, as I call them, are fiercely competitive, and we dont like to lose anything, period. It doesnt matter if it's a prop for a c-note, or a limit at 5 shops, losing is unacceptable and pisses me off. I also see passing on a lean that wins as losing money. If you take the time to handicap each sporting event every day you can take years off optimizing your advantage. This is exactly what I'm doing in MLB right now. In the past I would bet on baseball every now and then, but my priority was drinking on the lake all day. I did all right with only a sports page and a cell phone, but I feel it is necessary to hone my skills on MLB- there is no guarantee that every basketball and football season will generate revenue like it has every year so far. I may actually need MLB in coming years. What I've been doing since I got way ahead on the soft early-season alt RL's is wagering between 1% and 1.5% total on games that I feel have a very high degree of value, between .5% and .9% on regular plays in which there is a little conflicting statistical interpretation but still have quite a bit of value, and less than .5% on leans that I feel are lined pretty close to what they should be. So far, I would be a lot better off playing every lean or strong play solely on the RL or ALT RL which ever applies, and could easily withstand the streaks involved at 1% per play. At the end of this MLB season I'll see how this holds up, and may make adjustments for early season/late season etc. etc. etc. etc. Tracking your plays is invaluable, read the book "Mega Memory" and do the mental exercises, it helps mold your thinking process into a more categorical computer processor. This helps a lot by helping you recognize value at first glance and sizing the amount of value present quickly, a lot of good numbers get beat down quickly. Just a little of what I've done, I'm sure a lot of people have different methods, but I would much rather hit 54% on a ton of plays, than 60% on just the strong ones.

[punter puppy]

ATX,

Excellent series of posts. Thanks!

-punter puppy

[punter puppy]

The technique that ATX mentions of tracking the success of different betting 'angles' by tracking their win/loss funds separately is very similar to the portfolio management used by investment professional in other markets.

It had occurred to me that this technique would make a lot of sense for managing one's handicapping strategies as well, I'm glad to see that ATX is having success with it.

I am managing my sports bankroll this way, but I do not have enough transactions for the results to be meaningful (yet).

-punter puppy

[punter puppy]

ATX,

I completely agree with your perspective on the value of placing a large volume of wagers in order to continously validate your betting strategies and to minimize the duration of losing streaks.

However, finding a large number of wagers with reasonable value on a daily basis can create an enormous handicapping workload. I know that I am new at this, but I find that it takes me several hours to handicap all the MLB games on most days, and that I usually find only a few games a day that I feel offer strong value. Since MLB has the most games/day of any sport, I expect that it will be even tougher to find large numbers of value plays in other seasons.

ATX, how many wagers per day do you feel one needs to average in order to achieve the above mentioned objectives?

Thanks,

-punter puppy

[ATX]

it depends...on a lot. I'll write up my thoughts in a little while, I was going to briefl answer the question, but I'm still looking at numbers for the remaining baseball games, and it's hard for me to make sense with verbage right now. Numbers really are a different language...

[ATX]

I'll try to make sense...

my fiscal year begins when college football begins, I havent wagered on baseball daily until this year, so in the past I considered the last NBA game until college kickoff to be party time with random baseball games thrown in (I generally take all NFL preseason dogs on the ML for small amounts without any real work put into it). I took all the MLB playoff unders for a couple of years and made real good money on that angle until last year, after the first few games I stopped- when I realized that this angle might have become too public and lost value, I also realized at this point that if I was going to make money in bases I was going to have to put in a lot of work. During the latter stages of the MLB playoffs last year, I went on a big run which boosted my interest.

I mention fiscal year because it relates to my goals. My goal for this fiscal year was to wager on 3000 events at an avg of 1% per wager, with a win rate of 55%. The win rate is adjusted for dog ML's of which I play a LOT of, and of course I have several really large wagers that are around 5%-6% and those add up quick. 3000@55%,1% is big, big return, and I have blown this return number out of the water for 3 years now. My first goal 4 years ago, was 1000 wagers at 60% win rate. My strategy was a lot different than it is now, and it was a LOT harder to hit 60% because you have to pass on so much value.

One of my main points is that everyone's strategy is different so let me start at the very beginning. I knew NOTHING about betting on sports until I was 23, I went to the University of Texas Business School studied accounting then worked for a Fortune 500 company for 2 years. And HATED it!! I am not an accountant, I am very wild, have just recently managed to cut back on partying 5 or 6 days and nights a week so my personality was not cut out for my role there. My family is small, but they are all keen investors in real estate and stocks, bonds etc. I think that contributes a little to my ideas, as does my schooling (of which I paid zero attention to). OK, so I quit my job, and partied for a year or two, moved in with some friends on the lake and had really good times. One of my friends had been a bookie at Southwest Texas State University when he was in school there, I had always played and loved sports (I paid for school playing semi-pro beach volleyball) and watched football all day with him- one day I asked him, "What is this local line thing in the back of the sports section?" He told me it was for betting- you had to choose the right side. He had to explain to me several times which side was getting/laying points. This still cracks me up. I had saved some money from my previous job, and of course knew regional college football fairly well so he found me a bookie and I started betting 100$ a game. I won the first four games. Then the bookie tried to sell me on betting even more- 500$ and I fell for it. Except that I took UT at home +4 against NEB on a hunch, and I'll never forget being so drunk and happy when my team pulled off the upset. We also rode the Redskins and the over SU and in parlays for 3 or 4 weeks, I must have won at least 15 out of my first 20 wagers. I thought I could win 70% of wagers and take over the world. I rely a lot on instinct, and that has helped a lot, and it is hard to explain a lot of the time. For some reason it dawned on me that maybe the Redskins and the Over might actually lose a couple times and SOON. After we saw the crowd for the Notre Dame at Tennessee on ESPN SAT night, we went a dime a piece on the VOLS and won it easily. Then partied all night, that's when I got a little worried about the Redskins and the Over, and tried to explain it to my friend, but he didnt listen and he was so drunk that he put a dime on WASH, a dime on the over, and a dime on the both of them parlayed. To this day we still call it "Black Sunday", lol. From that day forward he started listening a little bit, and the first inklings of money management had been born. Then my 'good friend' the bookie disappeared with 7K. That's when I started scouring the net for anything having to do with betting on sports. You can guess which site I found first- betonsports.com, lol. After being ripped off, I found the idea of wagering on-line a god-send, but again for some reason something told me this site was just a little too easy to find. They did have a posting forum, which I visited for a couple of years- some of the most entertaining degenerates I'll ever read. But what struck me was the fact that some people actually bet on the WORST team in the league with the points!! And on random totals!! Then the wheels started turning, and I wondered about getting a little group together, maybe some guy that was good in the PAC 10, another in the Big East, another good on 'random' totals. Well the next stop on the tour was, you guessed it- TOUTSVILLE!! The first tout site I stumble across was ALLRANK. I was skeptical b/c they 'only' showed 58-62% winners (varied by sport), but my buddy wanted their services and shelled out a little cash. I have nothing against ALLRANK and though this was several years ago, in hindsight I feel they were honest and if their records are correct did a solid job. However they had some 'WAR ROOM' picks that were supposed to be wagered at 5X the normal picks, and that Sunday they gave us one. I think it was against GB and my buddy and I were real confused because I had the opposite as our strongest play. We decided to say "screw you, war room" and went with our play, which won. Bye-bye toutsville. I have always been curious about bankroll turnover- how to grow it and as quickly as possible and I remember reading some stuff from the Consensus Club and J.R. Miller as well as posters (that usually got heckled into oblivion) about ideas. I also noticed that a lot of the time posters with a lot of picks each day did well in rankings or units won. Hmmmm...

I dont know, but I may be a little lucky. I have never lost money betting on sports, I still have the bankroll that I started with from day one- in fact the ninety-one dollars that I won on my first game I keep laminated in my desk- it has special significance because the bookie had to explain to me why I didnt receive 100$, I knew NOTHING about vig!! I played a lot of parlays and did all right. In fact, when I first bet the NBA, I always told my friends "the first two are easy it's the third game that can screw you" when referring to 3 team parlays. I didnt have much of a clue, but I must have lost more often than not by less than a basket on the third leg. I think one thing that really saved my ass quite a few times was the fact that I never chased, I always realized that there was always the next day, and if anything went a little smaller for a while to get back to where I used to be, or passed. But I have always been good on games that I wagered big, I still have a handful every year that I get excited about.

About 3 years ago I got more organized. I tracked every play, paid attention to line moves and put more effort into totals and handicapping those 'random' teams. One thing that I have always liked about professional sports is the fact that the teams play each other over and over again. In college games I know little about the Florida Internationals and William and Mary's so I dont like to wager as much on unfamiliarity. I also started what I call 'subsets', categories of games in which I historically have a higher win percentage because of one or more correlations. They range from simple ones such as the playoffs, where I look at where my bankroll is from reg. season profit, and from that I increase wager size after estimating the number of plays during the playoffs that I will have (I try to plan it so that if worst case scenario occurs I will still be up.) and I do this by round. If I make 10% during round one, then I add a little to big plays or have more of them, marginal or regular plays stay close to the same. A good example this year was San Antonio -121 to win it all for 5%. I had already taken SA as a long shot after the All Star break when they kept winning on the road, but I did well in the playoffs and was good on nearby SA, so I dipped into the profit pool and threw some down on a play that normally I would either pass on or throw 1% on. I dont like futures much because you can make more (usually) by just betting on that team during their run, but I thought SA should have been closer to -500 at that point. Another subset example is NCAA football dogs of 40 points or more, 35 is a little less (throw KSTATE out), another is NFL teams up by 17 or more at the half (2nd half under) one of my best is NCAA bowl game dogs on the ML (may change but it has been a goldmine). Even if a subset starts to lose, the way I see it is that I'll still be up, way up over the term, even when the value is gone because you can stop or lower wager size at any point, and the winners are already yours. Most of my subsets are strong enough to bet blindly, (playoffs are a little different obviously) and the reason that they are so strong is because I have correlated them to VALUE. This last sentence can start numerous arguments which I'd like to avoid. Most people who speak of correlations refer to them in a purely statistical sense. But betting on sports involves PEOPLE, Human Beings are NOT pure numbers, and this why things such as Favre in domes and due theories, etc apply, IMO. Take NCAA bowl game dogs ON THE ML. The correlation is that there is value on the ML 1. very long time off between games, dog has time to get better and plan/exploit as does the favorite but IMO the time off helps the lesser team catch up more than the other way around. 2. NEUTRAL SITE!! 3. The dog knows it's a dog and is usually out to prove something, MOTIVATION (huge in college games) the favorite may be favored b/c it is commonplace for this team to do well in this bowl, the dog may find this bowl victory more meaningful. 4. A lot of bowl matchups pair two teams that never play each other, this pushes the outcome closer and closer to a toss-up, value on the +. There are other reasons, but I'm ready to go downtown.

I always have a plan B, and C, havent had to use a plan D yet, knocking on wood. For example, I had one hell of an NBA season. I was up over 40% on just the NBA before the All-Star break. I had a terrible FEB, but caught fire heading into the playoffs. I always get nervous before subsets when I increase wager size, but did swimmingly for the first few days. Then I decided to take some shots, I put 2.5% on LA -10 over MINN which lost and I ended up going on a bad, bad run which put me DOWN for the playoff subset in less than 3 days. I was pissed, but more disappointed and embarrassed b/c I send guys plays via email. I felt lost. But I put importance in goals, I had set out to do x% and I WAS NOT going to take a break during the subset in which I make the most money, period. Enter PLAN B. My PLAN B was what I did not want to do, it was a grind approach. No glamourous 2.5% plays, no drinking (much) or watching all the games at a bar or at parties. PLAN B was "damnit I have an edge, and I'm going to apply that edge even if it's .5% over as many plays as possible, which means I look at every prop, 1st,2nd,3rd,4th quarter total, ML, and start forecasting halftime numbers as soon as the game starts. I will grind my way with small wagers back into respectability because "anything less than 20% will be a HUGE disappointment in these playoffs". I became so focused on recognizing value that I didnt pay attention much to my overall profit for almost two weeks. PLAN B worked, and worked well. I learned so much about myself, I gained so much confidence. I got to the point where I was getting chills in the Finals from OLY's bad opening numbers, I could almost perfectly visualize some exact totals and win differentials (a lot of it is there in my NBA playoff thread SA/NJ). I always THOUGHT that I had an edge, but even after thousands of wagers I didnt KNOW it until early JUNE 2003. When you KNOW something there exists NO DOUBT. I pushed myself and exceeded my goals when I didnt think it was possible, when I could have been content with a great regular season. I even picked up some new playoff angles. Plan C I seem to have to revert to each February, I dont know why. Plan C is simply I dont give a f***. Every February I lose money. I hate it, especially after winning so much on the NFL playoffs and baskets to that point. During Plan C I spend little time looking at games when the losing skid starts, it doesnt help, and just frustrates me more. I flat bet for the most part during this time, and usually choose fewer games, and eventually break out with a GREAT March, good April, and May and June I described above.

You never know for sure when a losing skid starts, and when a winning streak ends. I made a mistake at times last NBA season by thinking that there was little chance that I would win the next day. I won 24 days out of a month, and by the time the streak ended my wagers were appx. half of what they were when the streak started, I was convinced that I should limit my exposure b/c I was 'due to lose.' Maybe not a bad idea, since I lose 17 out of 20 wagers during at least one stretch of each year, sometimes in ONE DAY! I lost nearly 20% in one day during football season since I put about 1.5% or more on each game, but that's why there is money management, in three weeks I had made it back and then some. I probably lose more games by two points or less than some people win each year. I remember one NBA week (Feb of course) in which I lost over 10 games out of maybe 30 total by less than two points. Plan C illustrated. All you can do is laugh about it. I'm almost positive that I lose far more games by that small margin than I win by that same margin, some people say that it good from a value standpoint, I'm an optimist and try to agree.

I felt it was necessary to give a 'brief' background of myself to help with your question. I think it is best to use a variety of opinions and pick and choose those which best suit your ambitions. My bottom line is profit, I dont give a rat's ass about wins versus losses, they do help form an outline and a with proper organization can show where your strengths and weaknesses are. I look at how I do with home dogs at +10, +8, +6 etc, away dogs, by conference, after line moves, on a .5% wager, 1.0%, 1.5% etc, etc, just as an example. Be VERY careful with away favorites in the NFL, NBA, and in colleges, you can pick and choose spots, but many of these are losing subsets.

In order to optimize your profit, you need to know your historical win %. If you look for a 60% chance of winning before making a wager you are passing on too many plays for optimization. 55% is good enough and with lower vig that is now available the value add up. If you specialize in certain areas and you have several seasons under your belt, increase those wagers a bit. I emphasize several seasons, that is far more important than having thousands of wagers as a sample size. Each season offers a myriad of changing scenarios to deal with, recognizing value in those changing scenarios which can drastically change by season is more beneficial than having hundreds or thousands of wagers in just a couple of seasons (you may have been sticking with a couple of teams that you rode the entire season which skews your overall advantage). Keep track of how you do on each team. I do better on some teams than others, but I like to be able to spot value on each. Start playing on your leans. When I start playing leans I go small and flat bet for about 1/3 of a regular play. I'm doing this in baseball now, reg plays are .5 to .6% good value is over .7%, leans are .4% or less. Your leans show strengths and weaknesses, if they make money then start upping them, they are a strength to your portfolio, if they lose money, look at the reasons why, if you can correlate it then DO THE OPPOSITE and make money!! If you have a lot of close losses on positive expectation wagers (ml dogs) then a lot of the time the value was there, and these should start falling your way.

Take notes. Pinpoint matchup weaknesses even if you pass on a game, this is how to isolate correlations (subsets are born!) after a number of events. For example, I'm charting WHIP differentials versus moneylines between pitchers in baseball.

I start with bankroll 100% at point 0. If I increase bankroll by 15% then I add that to my bankroll so that a wager of 1% increases from 1% to 1.15% in actuality, but only after I show 15% profit and there are nuances involved such as how favorable the value looks for the next few events. I dont decrease wagers until I lose 20%. If you have an edge you are slightly more apt to win after a losing day. Dont increase wagers each day after a win, that inceases the win% needed to break even from one day to the next. Some days have more value than others, I frequently increase wagers a bit on all plays b/c I feel I have a high probability of showing profit on that card. Just my 2 cents, best of luck.

[punter puppy]

ATX,

Wow! great post. Tons of good info. Thanks for taking the time.

I am still digesting a lot of it. Wow, 3000 wagers/year is a lot of wagers.

I understand and agree with your strategy of maximizing profits by taking on a larger number of wagers with smaller margins of value, but I doubt that my handicapping skills would allow me to find that many wagers with value and I worry that I would end up placing wagers with negative value. I have noticed in the handicapping contests that I have monitored, it is common for the percentage of players who end with positive net results to be much higher if the contest limits the number of picks per day. My suspicion is that your average handicapper is susceptible to unknowingly wandering 'across the line' into the field of negative value picks when there is no constraint on the number of picks. That is certainly a concern I have about my own picks.

You certainly have an 'optimized' strategy and I'm glad that it is working for you. You have clearly developed superior handicapping skills (whatever the methodologies you employ) and you leverage them well with discipline and well developed judgement. I see many many more hours of handicapping in my future if I hope to ever approach those levels of competence.

Once again, thanks for taking all the time to elaborate. You provide an inispiration for some of us newbies.

-punter puppy

[upstatenycapper]

ATX:

You, my man, are what we consider......ROYALTY!

Whewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww.

I for one would be honored if we ever exchanged conversation.

My e-mail: cockrane_65@yahoo.com

Incredible post!

[dimeplayersonly]

guys.....if i may let me tell you that ATX is without a doubt the rare breed of gambler that is able to show a profit especially with that many wagers over a season....

now here me out, im not disputing what he wrote be any means, but im on the other side of the counter, and i would absolutely be in heaven if my players played that many games in a season..because they will lose their ass......


with that said, the vast majority of you guys are/will lose money betting on sports....plain and simple....im just stating facts...not trying to sound like a naysayer just speaking on what i know.....


my advice to the majority of people who gamble on sports.....do it for pleasure only....go out with the guys have a beer and bet on your favorite team....thats it..nothing more..

i have booked guys who poured over countless programs, stats, betting strategies, you name it they absorbed it...only to have bad beats leave them with a negative figure at the end of the week.....

i have seen them get so frustrated it affected other aspects of their lives.... ie. jobs, family ect...


you have to ask yourself is it worth it???


the guys that bet on a team just so they can root against their buddies, might not show a profit but they seem to enjoy it a whole lot more.....

what im saying is just keep everything in perspective

because for whatever reasons the vast majority of you guys will not make money at betting sports........g.l.

[DE NIRO]

people underestimate also the juice

that 10% is there to beat mathmatically any billionaire

the more you bet, the more juice you pay and the more games you have to win to just break even

[SaintJoe57]

I never come in this forum! http://www.therx.com/forum/grem/bowdown.gif http://www.therx.com/forum/grem/bowdown.gif http://www.therx.com/forum/grem/bowdown.gif http://www.therx.com/forum/grem/bowdown.gif

Best of luck no matter what side you are on!

[punter puppy]

dimeplayersonly,

Thank you Sir for the "reality check".

Given that you are 'on the other side of the counter', you are unquestionably a man with honorable ethics. I am honestly touched by your efforts to steer the naive away from disaster as opposed to attempts to profit from it.

ATX is certainly an exception in his abilities/strategies and it could be misleading to many Newbies to imply that 'the more bets' the better. Much of that discussion was probably not appropriate for a 'Newbie' forum, but I applaud ATX for sharing the info since it is so seldom done.

dimeplayersonly, you offer very sound advice for Newbies: Sports Betting can be fun and it can enhance your enjoyment of sporting events - so long as it is done as recreation.

I find a similarity between Sports Bettors and Muscians, 99% of those involved 'pay to play' and only 1% can 'make a living' from it. ( these statistics are not accurate but are for illustrative purposes ). There is nothing wrong with either role, so long as the members of each category are clear about which role they are experiencing. Unfortunately, there is usually a margin of grey in-between.

Thanks again both to ATX and dimesplayeronly.

-punter puppy

[ATX]

dime, excellent post. listen to dimeplayersonly, guys, you need to hear from the other side of the counter. I book a little myself, and I may elaborate on that a little sometime. My input is to help keep what dime sees everyday from happening to you, if nothing else. You've got to understand that my last post takes place over 4 to 5 years. My learning curve is a little abnormal (in just about everything, not just the sports market). It takes me a little longer to catch on to a lot of things. I'm very systematic, and it's kind of like putting a puzzle together. At first it takes a long time to see the first two pieces that fit. But when you start seeing angles and correlations that fit together, the last few pieces come together faster and faster. But there are many frustrations along the way, and your confidence will be all but destroyed many times as pieces that look like they fit together end up being fool's gold. And then the fool's gold that you wager against ends up being a gold mine, and then you REALLY get confused. I have destroyed at least 5 or 6 TV's, computers, radios, my entire office, tried to find phone numbers to make death threats to relievers (j/k), gone out and celebrated a big victory for two days only to find out YAHOO POSTED THE F***ING SCORE WRONG, etc. etc. etc. You know what, all of the above helps relieve stress, especially when you can laugh about it later. I no longer can talk about sports with many people because for some reason it's almost like talking about politics or religion, things get heated and turn south fast. Once someone knows what I do, they instantly get defensive and try to prove me wrong more often than not, instead of listening to angles that make money every year. All the vast majority of sports fans see are the final scores from the day before, most dont know a lot of the teams' records, and very few know home/away records which are really one of the most important things. A lot of my close friends used to get VERY upset with me for betting against the Longhorns, I am still very much a huge UT fan, but I have sacrificed being a sports fan for the most part because nothing creates more bias than rooting for or against a team, if you are not objective then you have already lost half the battle. That being said I'll tell a little more about the bright side.

punter, dont ever put limits on yourself- on what you can or cannot do. It's important to look at this VERY longterm. I know that I will always do this in some capacity for the rest of my life, it is my passion. Dont think that you will get rich quick- as in a week or a month or even in a year. In three years with a lot of blood, sweat, and tears you can DEFINITELY go places. Think of your bankroll as your 401K or an investment portfolio, you dont use rent money to put on the stock market, and you dont take money out of your 401K each month to spend on bullsh**. The SAME applies to betting on sports- if you want to go this route, avoid touching your bankroll for as long as possible, once you gain consistency and apply your edge, your bankroll will grow fast. I dont know if you did the math, but 3000 wagers at a win rate of 55% with 1% on each is appx 165% a year, with ML's and the 8-10% of wagers that are over 1%, higher yield is possible. I have been told over and over again that this is not possible, that 20-25% is the best one can hope for, and I spent a good deal of time trying to figure out why it wasnt possible. A lot of things in life are best learned by experience, dont believe something just because it is said and accepted by the majority. After thousands and thousands of wagers I tell you that: The above yield is more than possible, it can actually become PROBABLE!

I think the hardest thing for me is keeping my mind in peak condition. It is a fine line between too little investigation of a game and information overload. I know some people are glued to the screen for baseball lineup information, it may work for them, I dont even pay attention. Baseball is a different sport to invest in, the changing prices dont affect your profit margin as much as spread sports like basketball and football. If Baltimore goes from +180 to +165 some of the value is gone but if BALT wins then you still get paid, just not as much. If the Ravens go from -2.5 to -3.5 and you made a big mistake by misguaging the line move and had to take them at -3.5 and they win by only 3, then the changing price turns a win into a loss (if you wanted BAL all along). With experience you will be on more of the -2.5's than -3.5's, with even more experience you will use changing spreads to your advantage by playing some middles. I dont middle a whole lot, but I hit a staggeringly high percentage of middles, this should change IMO, it's just not probable for my % to stay that high. My strategy on middles is: I like a side, I play that side, if I think the side will cross a key number or be buyable to a key # I may put a little more on that side. I ONLY play middles in which I feel the number(s) in between are relatively probable, typically 20% or more, of landing exactly. Sometimes I play a weighted middle for insurance, if something comes up after I've wagered on a side and the line has moved in my favor then I can put a little on the opposite side which reduces my risk on the side that I liked, while at the same time offers the possibility of winning BOTH. It happens, and it doesnt have to happen much for those small subsets to add quite a bit to the ledger. For example: When ORL and NY met in the NBA last winter, I had taken NY +4 for about 1%. I heard that TMAC (I think) wasnt going to play and decided to take another lead, I put an add'l 1.5% on NY at +4. Very quickly the lines went crazy, and dropped to ORL pick. I liked my position on NY +4 for about 1.5% and I had hoped that the above would happen so I timed it just right and go down on ORL pick for 1% (I might have had more on each side, cant remember) and just as it posted the line went back up to -2. ORL ended up winning by 2 or 3, that was one of the first NBA middles that I ever played and I'll never forget it. But this never would have taken place if I wasnt glued to the screen for an avg of 12 hours a day during football and basketball season. Do I get burned out? OH YEAH!! I almost always wager though. If my mind starts to feel like mush, (usually after a string of 3 or more consecutive losing days) then I move to Plan C, I use a sports page and a cell phone and just look at the spreads in the paper and wager on the lines that jump out at me. Sometimes I do this for more than a week, and I usually do well, I dont have as many wagers though, and very few totals. The more time you spend learning this market the faster you can gain an edge and apply an edge to a large number of events. I probably have more experience from the VERY intense last 3 years than some people who have wagered for decades, nothing takes the place of seeing a large number of seasons though. What the long hours have provided me is what I call "the language of numbers" in this market. On a lot of events the actual number says "public darling, 20% markup" or "bluelight special, buy in quantity", some of my wagers are based only on certain books' opinions which are apparent by the number that they hang versus the rest of the market. I am spending more and more time on 2nd half lines, if the strategy that I use now fails me in the future, I can do almost as well just by playing 2nd half lines, but I'll have to risk more on each event. Another market that I'm starting to look at is interactives or exchanges, in which you can bet on games WHILE they are being played, the possibilities seem almost limitless. I am branching out and have done surprisingly well on sporadic soccer plays and tennis. I just cant seem to be able to force myself to learn hockey b/c of all the other sports going on at the same time. After all the time that I have spent so far, I do probably 75% of my work in less than an hour each day. A lot of the games/prices jump out at me, like BALT today. But I spend probably 6-8 hours on baseball spread out during the day. I spend more time deciding HOW MUCH to wager on each event, than on WHAT sides I like. Sometimes over half of the games I have no opinion on until I look at current stats, sometimes I like every side with no research. I think it's VERY important to be passionate about this market. For me, it's not work at all, almost all my time is spent in this field. Of course, I have a life. It's just that I spend a lot of my life doing this!! I'm good looking, I love to party, make friends easily, but having a serious girlfriend is pretty much out of the question. I dont really want one though, which is good, I'm not lonely by nature, I used to spend all day hanging out w/ friends, now I just choose not to. When someone asks me to do something during 'work hours', I automatically figure out the oppurtunity cost of missing out on the ability of wagering on the upcoming games, especially 2nd halves which you cant do in advance. At first my friends thought this was strange, now some of them dont like me to leave the computer, lol. GIRLS WILL NEVER UNDERSTAND!! Think of how few girls like to watch sports!! Now add in the fact that the same sports that they hate offer the very real possibility of costing THEM money. If I meet a girl that is interested in this, I will be VERY impressed (oh, they all SAY they like sports- they think they know but they have no f***ing idea of what sports meant to me!!) This could be a huge sacrifice for some people, for me I like being single, my personality seems to attract the very possessive Leo anyways, no can do. Another sacrifice is the fact that I dont actually watch many of the actual games. Well, I watch the games on Yahoo sports, as in watching the scores by quarter and player stats. I do watch football, and as much as possible. Watching the stats pile up during the games is crucial for 2nd half wagers, it is a new language to learn- maybe just a dialect. Next year I may watch the games and the stats screen together, but only if it helps. Sometimes it's better not to see the f***ing relievers that blow the games.

I dont know if I'm more suited than a lot of people for this market, but I tend to think so. I stated my beginnings just as a point of relevance, I know some people lost a lot starting out, I was fortunate not to. I also listed some things about me that show some of the sacrifices that are necessary for me. I know people that have very compulsive personalities, and even if they win on some games just blow it all in the on-line casinos. I'm lucky to have almost zero urge to play table games where the advantage is against me. I love poker, but I only play medium stakes against real people. If you are serious about making money, then you need to focus on worrying about how you do each week, not each day. Put money aside each week (if you have a job) much like a 401K to help build your bankroll, and treat each game as an investment. If you need action, then play parlays for less than 10% of what a small investment would be. 3 team parlays have very low vig. Following other people's plays is usually suicide, especially using a consensus of several people. If you do follow someone you need to pretty much follow them exactly. I'd love to hear other people's views.

[ATX]

three things that will help newbies:

1. MONEY MANAGEMENT (1% on each game, you MAY get away with 2%)

2. MONEY MANAGEMENT (dont bet more when you are losing, dont bet more when you are winning, learn to bet according to the value that is presented you)

3. dont worry about today's results, concern yourself with weekly and monthly performance
4. bet on games that you feel you have an advantage, no matter how slight (over 53% probability of winning). It takes time and experience to gain an edge over a large number of weekly games. Going small on numerous games shows if you have an edge, the larger the sample size the more accurate it is. If your wagers SUCK and lose money, then do the opposite. What went wrong? What stats were you placing emphasis on? More often than not the losing wagers have a high number of ROAD FAVORITES. If you dont know or cant figure out what you were looking at for each game, then you are not INVESTING you are GAMBLING.

YOU WILL LOSE 10 WAGERS in a row at some point. I will probably lose 20 in a row at some point. I dont know or care about how many in a row I have won, I have made over 20% in one day several times and IMO profit margin is far more important than wins to losses.

DeNiro, you do have a point. But when you have positive vig what I do makes sense. In other words I dont look at it as laying -110. I look at it as recouping +102.6 on the majority of my wagers. Essentially I have been booking the book's action. I should also point out that I dont flat bet. IMO some investments offer more value than others, I try to wager more on lines that I feel are off more. If it's marginal then I wager a lot smaller amounts. If the marginal wagers lost money I would cut them, if they have a higher ROI then I raise them. The key is to have a reason for wagers, and to keep track of not only the wagers but the reasoning behind them.

[ATX]

punter, you are right. A lot of this is a little complicated for the newbies forum. But I would have killed to have access to a lot of the info that I just posted when I was starting out. I spent countless hours combing the net reading other people's views trying to find out an optimum approach. 99% of what I read was garbage. Most people have the attitude of "I am the best, every one else blows, and always will. What I know is worth millions, dont think I will just give it away." I had to figure out for myself the vast majority of what I believe now. And I dont know everything, not even close. No one does, and as in most things in life you are either moving forward or backward. Life and lines are constantly changing. One of the main reasons that I post is to get my ideas out there so that other's can critique and detract from my opinions, it's a great way to see what I may be missing. And of course what goes around comes around.

[punter puppy]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by ATX:
... I would have killed to have access to a lot of the info that I just posted when I was starting out...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

ATX, you have been very generous with information, both here and in other posts that I have seen. I thank you Sir.

I have always been interested in sports betting but due to career and family committments I never seemed to have any time to really look into it. Not until about a year ago. Since then I have been lurking around the boards to try to learn whatever I can. ( just found the RX a few months ago. ) You are so right ATX, the noise to signal ratio on most boards is very high so it takes patience to filter out useful info.

I agree with dimesplayersonly that for most people sportsbetting offers an enjoyable recreation, but it would become a trail of tears for most if they were to take it to the next level.

Nonetheless, as in music and sports, a small percentage of people are able to take it to the next level and consistently thrive. I am happy for your success ATX and very aware of the rarified company you are in.

At this point I don't know if I have what it takes to step beyond recreational wagering but I am investigating it. For the first time in several decades I have a few free hours a day available. My education and career were in engineering and I have been a successful albeit small investor so I am familiar with many of the math and business concepts that you have mentioned. I also have been brushing up on my programming skills as I can forsee some useful tools to help expedite the time-consuming process of handicapping.

Thanks again ATX for sharing all the great info and I look forward to seeing you around the boards.

good luck,

-punter puppy

[drunkguy]

great post guys.

ATX-
You posts in this thread are worth solid gold. This should be mandatory reading for everyone.

[VOLTITAN]

Dime,
Very profound and in most cases very true. As has been said many times, the lines are set to get action from both sides and just to hopefully make $ from vig and get basically an equal amount of winning and losing $. That is why it is truly gambling and not an exact science you can master...much like golf where the greatest current player(Tiger) loses to a guy who is playing in his first major(Ben..uh who???). When Greg Norman blew a 7 shoot lead in the final round of the Masters and was puting balls in the water I said to myself, "My God, I can do that! and he is a professional who has spent his whole life on this damn game and look at him." http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_confused.gif I then realized I should always just play golf with the attitude that I am going to hit bad shots and I will never master it. Much like no matter how much you study and cap you will take a bad beat(at times). So don't bet everything on one game and don't bet with scared money. Make it a hobby and either a source of extra income but not money you need to live on.

[winbet]

dimeplayersonly, I agree with you 100%. I was an independant bookmaker in London for 16 years, and in that time saw many punters with systems, databanks, staking plans, you name it.
None of these worked, although I was amazed how long some of them ran for, the longest being about 2 years. These punters were the worst hit when things started going wrong as they were convinced by then that things would turn around.
There was several I knew who made a living from gambling, but on getting to know them found that they made their money wheeling & dealing, putting on large bets for lazy clients taking some of the price off the top. Betting something at the best price & touting it was another. One of them had an uncle who was the biggest commission agent in London and always knew where the big money was going. He made a living by taking the odds in the morning and laying them back at shorter odds later.
All of the above was mainly horseracing. As for sports betting I never met anyone who made a living from it but knew plenty who won consistantly on the side. The one thing they had in common was that they knew there sport inside out and never bet on anything else.
Before you ask, there is a big difference between working and winning on the side and gambling for a living.

[nepenthe]

I posted the following yesterday in the Offshore forum, but think that it might be better suited to this thread.

-----------------
It appears that with the growing competition amongst locals and offshore markets, the juice is steadily shrinking from 2 dimes to 1 dime to 5 cent lines, from -110 to -107 to -105, etc. I wonder what this means with respect to the evolving accuracy of bookmakers / sportsbettors, if any. Are bookmakers' lines getting sharper, or are the bettors becoming smarter and more informed, or is it neither or both? With the advent of the internet, I would assume it is much easier than before to collect numerous data, but I also surmise the wealth of available data increases the knowledge level of the general betting population, thereby increasing competition. Since you are betting against the "average bettor" in sports wagering, the growth of intelligence level of such average bettor should be detrimental to the sharps of ages past, unless those sharps upgrade their methodologies somehow to stay above the rest.

So, could someone who has been using a particular handicapping formula 10-20 years ago at a profit still make similar profits today using the same formula? Is the general population becoming sharper to the extent that eventually, there will be little or no advantage left for the sharps? Or do you believe that there will always be enough squares, blokes and temperamental bettors for the advantage players to rake in the profits?

One similar illustration of the detrimental increase in the intelligence level of the general populace would be Blackjack which, as you may know, has been becoming less and less appealing recently on land and online. As for land-based blackjack, as the general population became more aware of the various methods of card counting, the casinos have caught on and employed methods to discourage or preclude counting, either via the 5:6 BJ payoff rule, elimination of single-deck games, or the automatic shuffler. On-line blackjack is suffering the same fate: as more people are catching on to the profitability of bonus hunting, casinos are taking measures to either increase wager requirements or eliminate blackjack from wagering altogether. In both cases, as more people become wiser to a given advantage, the overall profitability of a venture decreases.

Do you see a similar trend in sports betting, or is such apprehension a mere delusion of fatalistic musing?
-----------------

Personally, I believe that the profitability of betting on sides and totals might be diminishing because they are the most common bets amongst the masses. As ATX mentioned previously, one way to maintain a high level of advantage for sharp bettors is to branch out to other, more esoteric areas, including interactives, half/quarter bets, unpopular sports and so on. While many experts and touts alike can claim to have their own patented system of capping sides and totals, and certainly there is a wealth of statistics to assist one in that regard, it seems that comparatively few can claim the same with respect to these other areas (I haven't seen anyone advertise himself as a half/qr capping expert, for example). As the masses gradually wise up to the advantages inherent in sportsbetting, I think it's pivotal for the elites to either improve their handicapping system or move on to other, less crowded areas.

[drunkguy]

nepenthe...excellent post

Sure the internet has made information more accessible for the average bettor. The problem is, the average bettor doesn't know how to use that information. People are still following trends like "Atlanta is 10-0 on odd number Sundays in October" which have no grounds in reality. Most bettors have no idea how to determine statistical significance, let allow "data mine" or pull information out of mounds of statistics. So even though more information is out there, it doesn't mean anyone has gotten any "smarter".


Of course any given system is eventually going to fade out as people catch on to it. The "sharp" bettor is always constantly monitoring his systems and adapting them to stay one step ahead of everyone else.

I see the reduction in juice at sportsbooks due to the internet as being similar to what Wal-mart has done with retailing. As offshore bookmaking attracts more customers (and it has been exploding due to the internet), you have more and more action, leading to more profits. Just like Wal-mart can afford to keep the lowest prices due to their tremendous sales volumes, internet bookmaking allows you to reduce your profit per bet because you are doing so much more volume.

Also, computer technology has allowed these offshores to automate everything, cutting down on overhead. A book like Pinnacle just basically has to keep a server running 24/7 to make money. Eliminating all those phone reps saves a ton of money, which can be passed off as lower juice to the customer. Hell, with Don Best service, you don't even need a legitimate linesmaker any more (see all the clone books around right now).

Sure, moving into unpopular sports and thinks like betting exchanges is going to help keep an individual's betting profits higher, as it always has. But I don't think that beating the "normal" lines is going to be significantly more difficult thatn it has in the past (not that it was ever easy anyhow).

[winbet]

nepenthe, drunkguy.
The tax or juice as you call it effects the punter as it is taken off his bets . The bookmaker does not concern himself with tax as he passes this on to the punter. Wether he is paying 10% or nil, his margins stay the same.

[ATX]

Drunkguy, you worded it well. A lot of what you posted are my thoughts exactly. I feel that the reduced vig is to attract volume from competitiors, this is how any other market thrives.

The various angles that I use are based on correlations, this is very much different than trends. A trend (my def.) is a random occurrence such as you will find in numerous football periodicals, and they usually read something like Dallas is 12-1 after a division win preceding a Monday night game against a non-division opponent (I just made this up). You can use statistics to prove just about anything, and most trends like this are simply filling data into a small sample size to sell a magazine. If anything, I usually assume that if something goes 11-1 then it is more likely that the opposite will start to occur and the value is on the other side.

But if you can correlate or isolate WHY something keeps occurring, and why there is recurring value over long periods, then that is a different story. Most of the angles that I have stocked have recurring value because the public consistently BETS THE OTHER SIDE. In many instances the oddsmaker takes this into account so the value is almost always there. Some scores at halftime are very key numbers, and they give value to 2nd halves. One of the reasons is these key numbers (as I call them) are representative to the flow of the game, how the game is being played, and a lot of the time the public naturally assumes that since a low number of points were scored in the first half and these teams USUALLY score a lot more for the game, that in the 2nd half doubling up on the over is the way to go since the two teams dont even have to hit the full game over. A lot of the same applies to sides. This is just one example.

I also think that people that are successful have an ever-changing strategy. Baseball is a great sport to learn handicapping from. You MUST switch gears every day. One day I'm on one team, the next I may find double the value against them. I actually look at less for a baseball game than I do for other sports since I dont really try to figure out who wins a baseball game, in most cases, while for football and baseball I usually try to determine who wins by how much and what percentage of the time. And try to guess who guards who, what plays will be called, who is injured, field conditions, which coach is the bigger idiot, etc. But as far as a lot of the angles that I use, the value will be there for a while because the public just doesnt care to hear about value. It's actually funny, I'll tell someone standing next to me at a sportsbar to take the under in the 2nd half and they think I'm nuts, and this is after they know what I do and heard me call in my wager. But for some reason they usually think that it would take an act of God for the two teams not to hit the full game over, much less the 2nd half over. And later they think it was a bad beat, and probably triple up next time.

There are angles that I've used in the past that I've discarded, and angles that I now go opposite. If you practice sound money management you will take notice when something is losing value and come up with a solution. I look at a lot of things as subsets, and I try to make sure that each one shows profit. In other words there are pitchers and even teams that I ride streaks on (I usually go against teams that have won several in a row) and once I have wagered and won several in a row on or against that pitcher or team I start wagering smaller amounts on them since usually the value starts to diminish and I want to make sure that I come out ahead on as many subsets as possible. Keep in mind that almost none of this is done blindly, I still must find value in a line in order to wager a significant amount otherwise it is just a nominal wager. A lot of this is done subconsciously, and why I feel the trained human mind is far more powerful than a computer program. A lot of things I dont even realize that I take into account when handicapping a game, unless I start writing like this. But that's just me, I guess.