View Full Version : Newbie question - How do you Handicapp a FOOTBALL game?
Intuition BET
06-03-2003, 09:01 AM
How do you Handicapp a FOOTBALL game?
Angelle
06-03-2003, 10:11 AM
you aren't a newbie...
but if you like I guess we can explain for you
Intuition BET
06-03-2003, 11:30 AM
Please do as all Newbies will benefit.
The same goes for the other 3 newbie posts
tsm123
06-04-2003, 04:21 PM
Trial and error.
Handicapping is a laborious process. It's tedious, time-consuming and no matter how good you become, it is not fool-proof.
The trick lies in knowing what to look for and why...And it's much more difficult than it seems.
In most cases, the "agony of defeat" far outweighs the "thrill of victory".
Truthfully, I don't think anyone who has a handle on "what to look for and why" is going to give away any secrets.
My advice would be if you read something about handicapping that makes sense to you...write it down.
Here's a riddle:
STEELERS -6' v Browns.
You like the STEELERS -6'.
Who is your opponent?
mickj
06-04-2003, 08:31 PM
The people who bet on the Browns.
tsm123
06-04-2003, 08:58 PM
Your opponent is The Linesmaker.
Your opponent has ALWAYS BEEN The Linesmaker and WILL ALWAYS BE The Linesmaker.
Banned4Life
06-05-2003, 02:12 PM
When handicapping football concentrate on the defenses and how they match up with the other offense. Most cappers overrate offense and ignore defense.
DE NIRO
06-18-2003, 07:31 PM
bet the dogs and only the dogs
you will be up at the end of the year
flat bet
tsm123
06-19-2003, 12:13 PM
DE NIRO,
On any college football game card, the number of dogs or favorites covering the number hovers around 50%. There is no real advantage to either role.
Some dogs cover by 1/2, others cover by 14'or >.
Some dogs do not cover by 1/2, others by 14' or >.
Same applies to the favorites.
As a handicapper, our task is far more difficult than just betting one team role over the other.
We have to learn "what to look for and why".
DE NIRO
06-21-2003, 09:05 PM
no loser
i book bets i dont make or pick them
yes in college its around 50%
alot more dogs in pros
you have a better chance being ahead alittle betting only dogs
i dont believe in switching fav then dog
i also dont believeing too much in value "what to look for and why"
linemakers are the best
sharper than anybody
they know who the peolpe like and its 95%swayed to the fav. you have the line and dog winning outright
take my advice flat bet pick 10 games sat(tv games) 10 sun
bet all dogs
you will only make a few units but you wont get killed
tsm123
06-22-2003, 04:03 PM
"linemakers are the best...sharper than anybody"
That's because they know "what they're looking for and why".
the oddsmaker's dont always have the best number, there are too many games for them to line for them to have the best number on all games. A good starting point for newbies is on regional action on college games. There is a lot of info that is available to locals before the books adjust their lines (often they never do). For example, I live in Austin so I get a lot of info on UT, ATM, Baylor, Rice, OU, $pur$, etc. BEFORE the oddsmaker. For this reason, I typically win at a much higher rate in the BIGXII conference than I do on teams several hundred miles away. I also look for writeups from people that I respect on their regional action. If you are new to handicapping try putting less on teams that could have problems that you dont know about, and more on teams that you read about every day in the paper.
For the NFL pay particular attention to avg yards per rush for, and avg yards per rush against (defense). A team that can run the ball and stop the run often controls time of possession, and the game itself. There are many other things to look at, and it's hard to explain further strategy without an actual matchup to illustrate, but those two things are considered very important to a lot of people that show profit.
Another NFL angle to look at sounds very simple, but year after year it makes me a LOT of money. Just pick the winner of the game. 84% of the time the team that wins the game covers the spread. What does that mean and how can it possibly help? Well, first do your homework and spend a good deal of time reviewing boxscores, rushing yards, defensive stats, and special teams. After that, in many instances you can come to a solid conclusion about who you think will WIN the game. If you think a team favored by 7.5 points will win the game straight up, dont take the underdog simply because you think the favorite will win by exactly 7. If you think a 6.5 point underdog has a really good chance of winning the game USE the MONEYLINE. On almost all NFL dogs that I wager on I put AT LEAST 30% of my wager on the moneyline, and this almost doubles my profit each year. For example, I typically wager 1.5% of my bankroll on an NFL game. If I take an underdog, I usually put 1% on the +6.5 points and .5% on the moneyline of +300 because 84% of the time if the underdog covers the spread, they WIN THE GAME. If the dog loses by 3 in this case you still make good money. Keep track of your plays, and see how this does for you personally over time- that is the only thing that really matters. Also keep in mind that the NFL has achieved remarkable parity when compared to other US sports, and appx 60% of NFL DOGS covered last year, WOOF!! and best of luck.
Almost forgot to add this- wagering on a lot of road favorites is not a winning proposition, especially on MONDAY NIGHTS. Remember Denver at Baltimore.
johnho300
06-23-2003, 09:50 PM
do you guys think that dogs that cover the spread also win those games(like the nba) at a higher rate than just covering?
jwunderdog
06-24-2003, 09:12 AM
Other then last year in the NFL, betting the dog was only slightly better then betting the favorite, both of them were losing props. if you include juice. FYI
John,
You are better off playing the moneyline on dogs than taking the points, like in the NBA.
84% of the time the points ATS dont matter.
I only put appx 35% of my wager on the moneyline for psychological reasons. There are team tendencies involved.
Intuition BET
08-25-2003, 05:56 PM
ATX - I agree. Play the Moneyline on the DOGS.
Let's see if the Dogs are going to REPEAT last year.
After analyzing and all that.....
Pick your plays.. When in doubt, go with the dog for a third, the dog su for a third, and the under for a third.. With the points (and the under) you are winning until you lose....
And always play nfl home dogs of less than three to win su.. I've tried to beat this into people, they just don't want to believe something so simple wins. See the football money lines thread from last year in the handicapping section. Anyway, as always, gl..
Donaldb
09-02-2003, 02:13 PM
Handicapping is not a gift! Go by feeling my freind and the money shall flourish! http://www.therx.com/forum/grem/1053174822.gif
Phaedrus
09-03-2003, 02:10 AM
I worked on a basketball system all through the NBA season that actually ended up in profit -- my first year of doing so without following someone else's picks. I have been working on a way to "convert" the system over to football, as it is not really sport-specific but more to do with odds and spreads.
The very basics of the system are:
1) Only bet on dogs (not to be confused with betting on all dogs.)
2) On all bets, place a certain amount on the spread and a smaller amount on the ML -- always small enough so that a spread win will cover a loss on the ML with change left over.
3) The ratio of the amount between the ATS and ML bets is determined by the spread itself -- the wider it is, the lower the percentage.
The rest boils down to deciding on which teams to actually make the bet, which I did so in an entirely unscientific manner: mostly by hitting the dogs where public money was slamming the favourites.
At the end of the season, this ended up very slightly in profit -- not much, but low double digits, which has me thinking that by refining my math skills and basketball knowledge I could improve this win rate next season.
I'd like to try to transpose this over to football, but the points are so odd in football -- 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, etc., that I am worried about how to determine the proper percentage to put on the dog ML bet. The dog ML bets in NBA are what made the system profitable, because the extra little bit of money made when a +8.5 dog wins outright can really add up over the course of a season.
Just not sure how it would work out as far as football spreads go. Any suggestions?
Phaedrus
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