Can anyone suggest a capping system or disipline?

[3peet]

I wanna know if there's any system out there that anyone uses to manage their bankroll?

For example, if I start with a 1K bankroll...
for the remainder of the NBA season, should there be a maximum amount I should be wagering or a maximum amount of games to be played per day?

Trying to find the most effecient way to play without depleting my bank roll in 1 week. I'd like to know if anyone has any stratgies or disiplines they could share.

i can tell you what works for me, but we all have different opinions on this subject.

first of all, you can either like a game, or not.

betting 100 $ on one game, and 1000$ on another, makes no sense.

occasionally, i do bet more on some games, but thats not a 10 to 1 ratio, more like 3 to 2 ratio.

my bets are for approximately 3% of the bankrol.

try not to play parlays, teasers and props, and never chase your losses.

never play teasers on basketball totals, never.

if you are on a cold streak, take a few days off.

some people think they are more successifull when playing a lot of games.

i do not think so. i usually play 1-3 games per day in nba.

you'll do just fine.

[VG789]

hi don marco ,

I agree with your opinion,I m using a similar rating for US sports.For the european sports I might bet 1000$ on one bet and 100$ on another,as situation there is completely different.

[Gridster]

I agree with Don Marco, your bankroll can live forever if you stay disciplined, and you can collect every once in awhile after a hot streak. Its like free money. Play short odds, slow down when you're losing. Regarding volume: Sometimes, particulary in college where there may be 80 games to chose from on a particular day, you'll see 5 or 6 concurrent games that you want to play. Go ahead and play them, but buy some cheap insurance with a parlay that goes against your picks, just enough to recoup most of your losses if they all go down.

[3peet]

Thanks Don Marco.

That's exactly what I was looking for. I've been playing 5% of my bankroll trying to keep consistent with my plays. (instead of trying to pound games that I think i might like)

So taking time off seems to be the recomendation. Great.

Gridster-
Thanks for your input as well. However what did you mean by "short odds"? Something like -1.5 or +3 instead of a gaudy -14.5?

Thanks all for you input. It's very helpful.

Basically I started the NBA season last Friday. Had a nice opening and went 2-0 & 4-1. (4-1 posted on the RX). But then I hit consecutive bad days Sat & Sun going 1-2 then 0-4.

Definite time off couldn't hurt. I'll continue to:
- play at the 3-5% ratio of my bankroll to keep my plays consistent
- keep my plays within a max of 3-5 games.

We'll see how it goes. Thanks again.

[tsm123]

How good of a handicapper are you?

If your last three wagers lost to the number by an average of -30 points per game, I'd consider a wager of 2 cents per game until you improve your handicapping.

If you're confident with your handicapping and have documented proof, then I'd wager 10 - $20 per game, doing a review of my handicapping as I went along.

Most handicappers merely accept a loss then plunge into the next days card rather than doing a review of why they picked a side which lost by a large ats margin.

Doing a review of a matchup after the game has been played may provide a clue as to where you went wrong or why you were right.

Some of these clues are reoccurring.

Money Management,imo, means minimal exposure of your bankroll.

[Gridster]

Actually 3peet, I was talking about sticking with sides or totals, where its 11/10 odds, or money lines near even. Basically, what Marco was saying about avoiding teasers and parlays. I wouldn't advise anyone not to lay or take a lot of points, thats between you and the linemaker.

I was in the same boat 2 weeks ago as you are now. Made some good bets, but lost on freak plays. I took 4 days off then hit big this week. Sometimes you can put a losing streak behind you just by doing nothing.

[jwunderdog]

One problem with the 3% rule you can be above 53% winners and still lose money if you look at your bankroll every night and bet 3%. The toughest part about money management is knowing when too increase your wagers or decrease them.My rule of thumb is do not increase or decrease you wager amounts for an entire season of a sport. Here is may reasoning behind it. say you start with $1000.00 you bet 10 games at $50 a game you win all 10 now you have $1500. If you bet 5% again you are wagering $75 a game you lose your next 9 games at $75 a game your bankroll is now down to $757 and you won 53%.

You have 53% winners yet you lost $240.Let a whole season play out so all the good and bad bounces are at the same amount.

FORWHATITSWORTH

[3peet]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Let a whole season play out so all the good and bad bounces are at the same amount.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

...and therin lies the disipline to so http://theprescription.infopop.net/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif It is so tempting to pound a game you really feel good at.

Thanks all for your input. It's exactly the info i was looking for. Perhaps I might as well find a hot capper and ride their plays for the remainder of the short season and keep the wagers at the same amount http://theprescription.infopop.net/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif



As for my capping skills?......let's just say I trust my capping skills better between the months of August to January.

Thanks all!

sound advice by don, take heed, i myself might bet 5/1 or slightly more of my normal bet, but i gotta feel strongly about a game, and not just feel, have a lot of angles on it, but remember it's always a bet and you are dealing with probabilities not certainties, and most of the time when something can go wrong it usually does, besides i think that when you overstake a game you got the pitfall of wishfull thinking, i.e. more often than not you want a certain outcome than you accurately predict an outcome.

And go through your bets from time to time, it has helped me a lot to review what i bet a month, or a week, and use hindsight to improve both my capping and moneymanagement. I dont ususally bet flat and dont go around with a calculator rationing my bets, i use a more intuitive style, based on the principles that don's mentioned (%of bankroll etc.) but not strictly adhering to it.

Besides that money management goes hand in hand with learning how to keep your wits together on a losing streak. That is, you ll never go broke going into a super market to buy your groceries and bread, unless you are a compulsive buyer, but you can go broke gambling. Does that mean that in the first case you have a hang of money management while in the second you lose it for no reason? Obviously not. It means that buying groceries is much less of a taxing activity to your nerves, so manage to stay afloat and keep you head together and you ll manage your money alright.

Also, (which happens to be a note to self as well), as someone once said, very clearly stated:

dont be greedy, undisciplined or stupid.

that's a recipe for disaster if any of these ingredients are not in the stew.

[Stalker-Dude]

There is a lot of great advise in this thread. Personally, I can't stress enough having balls to shelf the ego and always remember once you place a bet it is out of your hands. You have no control over what is going to happen in the game. So why then should we get so emotional about our wagors if we watch the game on t.v.? Why then will we let our emotions of one game effect our next bet? Bankroll managment should help protect us from going bankrupt but what happens when we lose 6 or 7 or more in a row?


I cannot stress enough how one must be strong emotionally to deal with the swings of winning and losing. Since each of us is different, we need to find what will work to keep us balanced while winning and losing. Some people feel a need to watch games to get that "rush", or, "to have fun". Personally, I can go someplace else and have fun. Maybe some of you need to learn how to do that.


Bankroll managment is only a small part of what we need to keep in check, but it is an important part. If I'm on a losing skid I will just stop for a few days. I won't even look at the lines or update the scores. I know I need some time to clear my head. I'll go do something I've never done before or go someplace I've never been. The mind and body tend to recycle after doing that and you start to look at things different. Your focus changes and the "rest" is good.


This theory is the same as when people take off for a weekend after a couple of hard weeks work. We can beat ourselves up during a losing streak and continue to chase money and be miserable trying to figure out what is going wrong or just stop what we are doing for awhile and focus on something else.


In my opinion all systems and bankroll management are useless unless you factor in the psychological aspects of how to handle a losing streak and winning streak. To me, this is a lot harder than picking winners.


In closing, just remember to do a little soul searching in what it will take for you to be successful in the game of sports wagors. It's o.k. to get emotional about the games...but it's not o.k. for that emotion to affect our next play. "Check yo self before you wreck yo self" Best of luck in your ride...Stalker

[peskypup]

there is a lot of good advice here on dealing with a bad streak. I think it is equally important to handle a good one well.

The dizzy feeling of success when you win 5 or 6 on the bounce can be very dangerous for the quality of your next bet. It's the equivalent of hitting 5 or 6 winning hands in Blackjack then hitting to hard 17 against a 9 because you are now so sure you'll get a 3 or 4.

The ideal betting head is a cool one. not one that thinks he can predict every game, not one that thinks every bet will turn to dust. That is the challenge, keeping the cool head.

[jwunderdog]

I just read one of the replies to one of my posts and I just want to clarify. I do not bet the same amount on every game it ranges between 1-7 units but the amounts of each unit do not change for the entire season and whether I am on a good streak or bad streak it has nothing to do with what unit amount I place on a game.

A quote I always come back to when I am either really hot or cold is

"you're never as good as you think you are when you hot, or as bad when you're not."


Remember that the next time you are dieing to increase or decrease your next bet based on how hot or cold you are.

[dimeplayersonly]

DON MARCO........good sound advice...

i really want to comment on what STALKER DUDE SAYS..

he is one of the few people i have seen that realize how important the phsycological aspect of gambling is...if you think its all about numbers and value........my friend you can end up just as busted as the next guy.
lets face it, in order to be a successful gambler you have to be disciplined...the majority of gamblers arent...where does it usually show? chasing loses is by far the biggest mistake most people make.

best way to stay disciplined? make your bets....and go on about your day ....dont watch the games, like stalker says you become emotional if you watch them....treat gambling like a job and set a loss limit and stick to it...

but im going to be honest...the majority of you wont be able to do this, because like most people that started out gambling they did it for the THRILL....and that stays with you.

if your number #1, goal is to make money, and your not disciplined enough...the cold hard facts is that you cant do it with gambling....

[dimeplayersonly]

i should have said........most gamblers know they should be disciplined..........but actually being able to show discpline is another story

[3peet]

I must say, this has been quite an informative and valuable thread. (for my part atleast)

I've already learned to take time off during cold streaks. (Very benifical) I'm also betting no more than 4-5 wagers per play. Thus far I've remainded consistent in my wager placements 3-4% of bankroll. I have yet to increase any of my wagers since I'd like to maintain the consistency and better yet the roll I'm on.

Thanks to everyone (Don Marco, Dime, Gridster, JWun, Pesky, Stalker) and everyone else that may have been missed.

Again this thread has taught me a ton of things! More importantly...it's kept me in the green! Hopefully I can maintain a sense of disipline once playoffs roll around.

Thanks 2 everyone!
-Peet

[tsm123]

This article was written by Ted Sevransky, aka "Buzkil" or "Teddy Covers". Ted is a well-respected handicapper and operates the paysite,

No Url's Please

Ted is a very good writer and this article is just one of many which can be found at his site.

**********************************************
Five secrets that professional handicappers know that every recreational bettor should learn



Most casual bettors don’t make a profit from their sportsbetting hobby. This includes bettors who are relatively sharp as well as those who couldn’t pick a winner if their lives depended on it. That’s not a horrible thing either – if every bettor won, sportsbooks would be going belly up far more often than they do, and bettors would run out of places to play. And many bettors really don’t care very much about earning a long term profit. They like to have some action on games as a form of recreation or excitement, not as an investment decision. Many of these type of bettors are far more interested in TV games than anything else, and they tend to bet more on bigger games, like the Super Bowl or NCAA Tournament.



Much of the industry jargon considers money management as important as picking winners, if not more so. And it certainly is. But throwing around buzzwords like ‘money management’ and describing esoteric concepts like ‘isolate a percentage of bankroll’ and ‘positive expectation bets’ really doesn’t help the fortunes of most recreational bettors. If you, personally, are content with betting for entertainment purposes only than this essay will serve little purpose. But if you wish to be a successful sports bettor, even as an amateur, and earn a profit from your betting over an extended period of time, here are some tips that should help you in that quest.



1) Don’t bet into bad numbers.

Professional handicappers recognize the value of the half point. On the average college basketball Saturday, for example, there are at least ½ dozen games that are won or lost against the spread by a point or less. If he bet on the game, the pro bettor will be on the right side of just about every one of those decisions. He’ll either getting the push when others lost, or he’ll get the win when others pushed. (I use ‘he’ because, to be honest, every professional sports bettor that I know is a man – this is a very segregated industry in that regard). The pro will take the extra time to shop around for the best number at multiple sportsbooks. He’ll have accounts that are funded in enough places to ensure that when he finds the line that he is looking for, he’ll be able to place the bet. And he’ll have an idea of which direction the line is likely to move, enabling him to bet early or late, depending on which time offers an advantageous number. The pro wins by a half point far more often than he loses by the hook. Making a modest 20 bets a week (1000 a year, a number that is on the low side for most professionals), it is not unusual to gain an extra 10 or 15 wins a year and another 10 or 15 pushes just by betting into good numbers. Assuming the bettor is betting a modest 2% of his bankroll on any given play, those 20 or 30 favorable decisions translates into a 40-60% swing in his return on his sportsbetting investment. That’s not chump change, folks, it’s hard earned profit gained one half point at a time!



2) Make more straight bets and fewer parlays.

Professional bettors make the vast majority of their bets as straight bets, not as parlays. For amateurs, the number is closer to 50:50, and there are many, many amateurs who rarely straight bet at all. But the straight bet is the pro’s bread and butter. Professionals are satisfied with the return on investment from a 3-2 day, or a 12-8 week. They are in it for the long haul, not always looking for the quick score that parlays provide. Amateurs are often lured by the big paydays that winning parlays provide, conveniently forgetting that a season largely consisting of steady 2-1 type days will be even more profitable than the big hits that parlays provide even in a good overall season. Straight bettors never curse the 4-1 days – when they pick more winners than losers – because they make a profit every time, while parlay bettors don’t. There’s a reason that every sportsbook in Las Vegas has their parlay cards prominently displayed – frankly, parlays pay the bills at most joints here in town. That’s not to say pro bettors never go for the longshot score, but when they do, they do it for a considerably lesser percentage of their bankroll, and they do it in conjunction with their straight bets, not in lieu of them.



3) Concentrate more on box scores and less on final scores.

It’s easy to look at the final score of a game and make all kinds of false assumptions. This team got killed, that team gave ‘em all they could handle. But without reading game recaps and looking at box scores, you really have no idea of what took place, and what kind of current form the teams you are examining are in. It’s key to handicap games again, after the games are over. What happened that you expected to happen, and what was a surprise? Which things are likely to repeat themselves, and which are something of an anomaly? Here’s an example. The Pistons play the Bulls at home, as nine point favorites, but win by only seven, 97-90. But looking at the box score, it’s clear that Detroit dominated for most of the game. The Pistons won the rebounding battle and forced the Bulls into turnovers. They led by double digits at halftime and after three quarters. Bu the Bulls hit some late shots in garbage time and made the final score closer than the game was. On that same night, the Raptors are nine point favorites to the Nuggets, and win by that same 97-90 margin. But the box score here indicates a whole different story. The Raptors trailed throughout this game, but got hot in the 4th quarter to steal the win. Toronto made an uncharacteristic 27-30 from the free throw line, and hit ten three pointers, while Denver shot just 4-19 in the 4th quarter. By examining the box scores you can recognize that the Pistons are in better form than the Raptors and/or the Nuggets are in better form than the Bulls, making your future wagers involving those teams more likely to be successful, even though the final scores of the two games were exactly the same.



4) Take advantage of value.

Linesmakers have a pretty good idea of which way the money is going to flow once they hang their opening numbers. And amateur bettors are a big part of this, falling in love with ‘public’ teams, betting them over and over again. In college sports, these ‘public’ teams are usually in the Top 25, from a major conference – well known schools. In the pro sports, they are the hottest teams, teams at the top of their respective divisions or conferences. The professional bettor will recognize this public bias, notice that the lines are inflated for many of the best teams in the country, and either bet against many of the good teams or pass on their games entirely. Instead, the pro’s concentrate much more on backing the ‘good but not great’ type of squads, teams that have fallen underneath the public’s collective radar, as well as fading some of the mediocre type squads that are in poor current form. The pros bet against Top 25 clubs far more often than they back ‘em – that’s where the value is, catching six points with an underdog that should only be getting four. It’s equally important to recognize when the linesmakers have priced you out of a play. Kentucky and Arizona have been red hot in college basketball for the last couple of months, and they are the top two teams in the whole country right now. While few bettors of any ilk like to step in front of juggernauts like these, they also recognize that the time to back these two schools has come and gone – there’s no value on their respective sides. Both clubs had great records against the spread at one point this season, but neither is above .500 vs. the number here in February.



5) Be smart when betting your streaks.

It’s one of the most common mistakes that amateurs make, and it’s quite possibly the most costly. They press their losses, raising the stakes to get back to even off a losing week/streak. Pro bettors know that there will be times when you lose more than you win. Hopefully, those times are few and far between, but inevitably, they will happen to everybody. Rather than raising the stakes during those times when you are having a bad run, the pro lowers his stakes, conserving bankroll while waiting for things to turn around. There’s no ‘double or nothing’ attitude on Monday Night Football games for the pro. Conversely, the pro knows that winning streaks are the time to press your bets, not the time to pull back with a conservative approach to their recent profit. When a ‘capper is in good form and good rhythm, with his read on the games in solid form and the bounces generally falling in his direction, he’s not afraid to raise his stakes a bit, making larger plays when the percentages are in his favor (positive expectation wagers) It sounds so basic – don’t chase losses, ride your winning streaks, but few amateur bettors are able to maintain an even keel during periods of higher rates than the norm of both successes and of failures

[This message was edited by The General on 03-29-03 at 02:21 PM.]

[ATX]

The amount of money that you have as your bankroll plays a significant part of your strategy. How easily replaceable is it? At lower levels you may be able to get away with 5% wagers, but it is a very BAD habit to get into. Over a large enough sample size you WILL lose 10 wagers in a row, WILL. That is 50% of BR in a VERY short period of time. I dont have the binomial distribution in front of me, but I believe over a sample size of 500 you will lose 7 wagers in a row appx 3 times over 500 events. That is why it is so important to limit exposure on a single event- anything can happen. In the past I averaged 3% per wager, but over the years as BR grew I have settled into an average wager of 1% or less. Sure, I increase wager size on SOME events, such as the playoffs as a whole, but history shows me that I average better than 59% on playoff wagers, so increased risk increases profit. I have also increased the volume of plays over the years, from 2 or 3 big NFL games starting out, to 80% of sides and about 50% of totals on the NFL now. This strategy is not for everyone, but the way I see it, if you have an edge against the house you should apply it as many times as possible- I dont wait for 2 or 3 points. I eased into this strategy with painstaking recordkeeping. I handicapped games that I didnt put money on, with my opinion WRITTEN DOWN so that it meant something, to see if wagering on more events was a benefit or a liability. I soon realized that a winning % of 55% over a couple of thousand events was a lot better than 58-60% on several hundred, and worked out a strategy to minimize risk (1%). Just about every year I lose 17 or 18 out of 20 during one point, but at 1% it doesnt matter- if after 1000 I bank on 540. I also think wagering on a lot of events helps me psychologically- I dont have a lot vested in a single event. It helps keep me from pounding a single game- every event against the spread pays off the SAME. It's gotten to the point where I think it is MUCH easier to win 11 out of 20 than to win on a single event.

I think the best thing to do is to limit your wager size to 2% or less, it's TOO HARD to learn to do it later. If you want to do it for FUN, then dont worry about wager size, just set aside an amount each week that you can LOSE, and have FUN. If you want to make some cash, then you MUST approach this as any other market- buy low/sell high/acquire as many shares as possible/diversify. I havent seen very many people who practice bad money management at the dollar level turn things around at the dime level. The sports market industry thrives upon the weakness of human nature, the numbers are secondary- otherwise this would be a lot more difficult. Just my thoughts, and I've got a lot of them.

[This message was edited by ATX on 04-08-03 at 06:02 PM.]

[jateeluv]

3%-5% of bankroll is good. I try to do that but I have a square tendency to do a few parlays for 1%-5% every now and then.

Stay from parlays when you are down.

When you are up, you can chance a parlay.

Never Chase a loss ESPECIALLY on the same day/night. Wait a day and still see if you feel the need to chase a loss.

If you feel the need to bet bigger than what you usually do, do not watch the game.

Whenever possible, do not watch the games that you bet. Only watch games in which you do not have a bet. I know this is hard but it will make your stress levels less and wont allow you to chase losses as much.

Never bet on your favorite teams. No matter what you say or think, you have a biased towards your favorite team and/or players. F*cking, Wizards, Caps, and Skins! If only I had 'this feeling' on them, I might be doing well! ha!

[Big Lou]

jateeluv,

I disagree about watching games you wager on. I feel it is imperative to watch to see if the game turns out the way you expected it. Did the team turn the ball over as you expected? Did the defense stop the run like you thought they would? Did the team you wagered against make uncharacteristic mistakes like you thought they would in this particular situation?

I feel there a lot of nuances that you can't pick up from the boxscore. Watch the games you wager on. If they lose, hopefully you can find out why they did and correct your mistake.

Big Lou

[ATX]

Lou, it depends on how many games that you wager on. I have videotaped every NFL and NCAA game (available) in the past and watched them, but it really led to information overload- it didnt help me at all. But I may wager on 20 or more sides and totals in the NCAA and usually wager on 80% or more of NFL games, and a ton of 2nd halves, so watching all of them isnt really feasible for volume investors.

The lines are based on boxscores (more or less), so I feel that type of information is most relevant. You can pick up additional angles from watching the game, such as "a team that has quit". But these types of nuances comprise only one angle that I will look at out of maybe a dozen for a single game. I do feel that a team's playing style is a very significant nuance when handicapping totals in the NFL. I was kicking myself for not going higher on the PITT/TENN playoff total. Keep in mind when watching the games that some teams are Jekyll and Hyde- they change drastically from week to week. One of the reasons that 11 out of 20 takes so much work.

[ATX]

Jateeluv,

check out this thread on page 3: http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=8183022525&m=2333090686

if you increase your wager size every day after a winning day then your needed win% increases for the next day. I typically wait until I accumulate 15% profit before increasing my wager size from 1 to 1.15 etc. I tend to be streaky when I am winning so I chose 15% over waiting for 20%. When I am losing I dont change my wager size unless I accumulate 15% in losses (BR of 85%). A lot of it is touch and go (especially if you have 20% of BR oustanding per day).

[Big Lou]

ATX,

Boxscore are very important. I hope it doesn't look like I was trying to say they aren't. But I do like to watch the games for the reasons stated earlier. I'm definitely not a volume better, as I only handicap the NFL, so I do tend to keep a close eye on the games I'm on. The only games that are recorded and kept for future review are as many Week One contests that I can record between the dish and cable TV and all of the playoff games every year.

You are right on about teams drastically changing from week to week. (The Saints beat Tampa Bay TWICE but lost to Cincinnati). I never wager on a team thinking they will play badly because they had a poor outing last week. That's what the general public loves to do, backing a team that played great last week or fading a team that played poorly.

Big Lou

Very good point there Lou. Always a sign of who's a pro and who's not, public never taking into account regression to the mean, while pros always do. I ll even bet a team who's doing badly if i can get a good price on them (a public biased line that is) and i ve capped their team strenght to be above their recent performances. Of course it's a tricky thing and sometimes a team that has not been performing well, IS actually not as good as one thinks it is, but most of the time outcomes of the game are more a matter of chance (the proverbial bounce of the ball, bad days for the players, other chance factors), and the teams regress back to their mean, their actual capabilities that is, and when they are not "hot" you can find some great betting value with them.

[ATX]

Big Lou, I wasnt directing anything at you personally. I was just stating that the boxscores provide a strong quantitative aspect for drafting lines, and watching the games to view playing styles, matchups, emotional factors etc provide the qualitative aspects. In the vast majority of regular season games I feel that the quantitative aspect bears more weight than the qualitative (football is a little different b/c of fewer games). In the playoffs the qualitative aspect is more significant as matchups, emotion etc come more into play. A good example is TB over OAK, the oddsmakers relied too heavily on their quantitative and had the wrong team favored, they didnt seem to take matchups very seriously. I guess my point is that in the regular season I dont watch a whole lot of NBA and MLB games- the teams may look like contenders one night and not give a rat's ass in the next b/c the seasons are so long. But in the playoffs I DO watch the games b/c every play counts much more and I typically wager a LOT more per contest, and go a lot heavier on 2nd halves esp when I see something to exploit.

NJ over MIL was a pretty easy example of regression today.

A lot of the time teams whose "mean" is overvalued lack a strong defense (in football, basketball). Matchups problems can also skew the mean (for a specific event) Most of the time these and other factors arent figured accurately into the line, and usually the +ML is worth a LOT more than 2 points to me. An interesting mean that I am watching is KC (and AZ).

[This message was edited by ATX on 04-19-03 at 09:55 PM.]

[mhk]

I agree with ATX on not changing bet size until a substantial (+ or - 20%) change in br occurs.. I'm big on betting dogs su, forget the points (see a previous thread re: football ml's). I agree with Big Lou on watching the games.. Know why things happened firsthand, it will only help you down the road, imo..

[Stalker-Dude]

I always find it interesting to come back to this thread about every couple of weeks or so and see what has been added. While we as sports investors have our own ways of what works for us individualy, it is great to see how others in the sports investing arena are dealing with it.


What may work for one person may not work at all for somebody else. But it's those little gems that we can pick-up to help us become sharper and fine tune our own personal style of investing that make it all worth while. To me, those are priceless.


I thank each and everyone of you for your thoughts and contributions to this thread. I commend all those who have opened their soul and shared a part of their life with others so that those who are missing something might have the chance for a better life.


Helping each other is what life is really all about. If you take that to heart, the ball will bounce your way more than not. Karma has a funny way of kicking your ass when you think you have it all figured out. Let's hope we all "Never Arrive"...if you know what I mean. Best of luck in all your investments...Stalker

[tsm123]

Betting is easy, handicapping is difficult.

You have to analyze, decide to wager or not, then review.

If the outcome followed your reasoning...congratulations! Hopefully, it continues and you gain confidence. If it didn't, you need to review the box score/summary and see where the mistake was made.

Is the time and effort involved in handicapping worth the effort?

Is the investment of our time and effort and the risk of hard earned money worth the possible reward?

I say, "yes".

[ATX]

I totally agree with the 'karmic responsibility' involved with sharing. For me personally, what goes around comes around. I am not lucky, I catch a lot more bad breaks than I get lucky bounces, I KNOW when I win a wager that should have probably gone as a loss. It seems that I've had fewer bad breaks since I've been posting though, fwiw, and I also notice that those who bash dont seem to win for long.

Another thing that I think is important in handicapping is experience. Obviously the more experience and work you put into it the better you get, but I think that CONTINUOUS handicapping is very important. What I mean is when you are suffering through a losing streak I've seen plenty of advice to "take a few days or a week off". I dont think this helps at all. You take yourself out of the arena, you miss out on subtle nuances and team tendencies. If your BR is taking a hit, it may be a good idea to limit exposure, but if you are trying to learn and gain experience in handicapping I dont think time off is the best solution.

If I start feeling worn out, which losing streaks can help cause, and I'm not 'seeing clearly', I may decrease wager size substantially or not actually wager at all. But I ALWAYS handicap the games for each day. I need to because I get down on a ton of games. If something comes up and I physically cant handicap, I make sure that I dont hear the outcomes of games on radio/TV before I run the data myself and come up with my own conclusions. I remember times when I took a day off and looked at the sports section the next day and thought to myself "Cleveland won SU!!, I would have been on that ML huge!!" This builds false confidence, anyone can handicap from the next day's box scores. I keep every single sports section every day, if I have to go on a long car ride I've been know to grab a couple random sports pages from the past and handicap the day's events- kind of like doing a crossword puzzle.

[Stalker-Dude]

ATX you really shared some good things. I agree with you on the "long car ride crossword puzzle thing". Been there....Done that.

[bblight]

I just re-read this thread and and I see a lot of good information and advice, but I still don't see anyone mentioning my #1 bankroll killer which is GREED!!!!
All of the disciplines, money management skills, great handicapping abilities and line-hunting expertise are great - but the big bankroll killer for me has been GREED!
Just about every dumb trick I've pulled on myself has been due to greed: I had a bad day and I want to catch up, so I'll make this very large bet to catch up (I won't worry about if I lose!); There aren't a lot of good choices on today's card, so I'll pick a few of those borderline teams for the action (I won't worry about them losing); I've been winning lately, which means I'm infallible, so I'll pick a few extra teams - what the hell - I can't lose (and I won't worry about the possiblity of losing); etc., etc..
Every time I look at my past mistakes, greed is sitting there making ugly faces at me. Greed is the monkey on my back that I have to be on constant guard against - because the second I ignore greed's ugly little face, it'll come back to wreck my day as sure as God makes little green apples!
The good thing about this is that the smart handicapper can learn from his mistakes and not repeat them - or at least not repeat them very often.
Yup! Greed is the biggest bankroll killer there is - it's created more losers by a factor of millions, than any other reason there is, so when you're making that bankroll discipline list, make sure you list GREED at the top, in caps, so you'll remember that greed will do you in faster than a room full of touts with ten billion star locks!

Good luck!

[This message was edited by bblight on May 26, 2003 at 11:44 AM.]

[tsm123]

greed: An excessive desire to acquire or possess more than what one needs or deserves, especially with respect to material wealth.

I hate to say this, but I think it's true...
greed is a function of poor handicapping.

Improve your handicapping to the point where you are able to select ONLY SOLID COVERS and you will no longer be bothered by greed.

If you do not/cannot develop the ability to select ONLY SOLID COVERS, then you have no business being greedy and you've now compounded your problem...poor handicapping and poor money management.

Sorry if this pissed anyone off, but that's my honest opinion.

[OgieOgelthorpe]

Wow. I haven't read the entire thread (yet) but the last two posts, I found myself nodding.

Just last week I was up 13.00 with my guy and because of just what you guys have said, I ended up going to the hip.

Now I'm on a losing streak that I can't seem to break. Thanks for this thread and Im about to dive into it.

[ATX]

Ogie, if you dont have much experience in baseball you might be interested in the two rules that I set in stone for my first two years after I got my ass handed to me my first couple of months in bases. It was amazing how fast things turned around, and I still adhere to them the vast majority of the time.

1. do not wager on ANY favorite over -140. I know that matchups differ and at times warrant the chalk, but it takes experience to recognize a 70% chance of winning. Simply put, a MLB team doesnt win 70% of its games. Convert the price into a fraction, this shows the percentage that the given team must win in THIS situation.

2. flat bet- on any favorite lay the same amount that you would on a dog. this is another way of reducing plays on favorites since you wont make as much on faves as a dog play. flat betting also keeps you from putting large chunks of money on "locks" and keeps you from "chasing".

Baseball, for me, is different than any other sport. In the NBA and NFL I devote most of my time in determining who will WIN the game, the cover takes care of itself the vast majority of the time. In baseball I couldnt care less who wins each game. I devote my time in bases in handicapping the PRICE. I take any game in which I assume the PRICE is off. For example, in today's HOU game I had STLOU at -150, in the NYM game I had PHI at -160. Did I think HOU and NYM would win? NO, but the price offered on the dogs (HOU,NYM) was worth the investment, and in this case paid off. If you try to determine who will win each game you usually get into trouble. Who will San Diego beat? They SHOULD lose the rest of their games this year, based on thier statistics (I think they are playing DET soon, on a side note), but they WONT, Seattle will NEVER lose etc, etc, etc. I hope this makes sense. My point is that if you play enough games where you find the price to be just 15 cents or so off what it should be, then you will profit greatly. And dont even bother with a W/L record, it's ALL about %BR gained (for any sport). Check out the numbers in my bases thread for examples of what I am talking about. Alternate Runlines are getting sharper, but they still offer the most value in a lot of situations.

[Sixth Sense]

Outstanding advice ATX!

I, too, subscribe to the flat betting - betting to win less on the favorites and betting to win more on the dogs.

And the advice on the price in baseball is correct too. I look for a 20% ROI in pricing baseball.

Nice job ATX!

[couch_potatoes]

Here is a professional's math formula for determining the maximum that you can risk on one game:

A= % of wins (expressed as a decimal) --&gt; This is your EXPECTED overall win rate.

B = Average profit per game won

C = Average loss per game lost

D = Size of your bankroll today

E = Percentage of bankroll to risk on 1 game

For example, making a modest presumption that you can win 55% to 60% of the time, A = 0.55

Assuming you make $10 profit for every $11 wagered when you win, B = $10

Again, assuming you lose the amount wagered ($11) whenever your team loses, C = $11

Say your bankroll is $500. D = $500

Here is the math:

E = A - [(1-A)/(B/C)] &lt;----- This is the formula

1-A = (1 - 0.55) = 0.45
B/C = ($10/$11) = 0.91

E = 0.55 - (0.45 / 0.91)
E= 0.55 - 0.4945, or 0.05, or 5%

If D = $500, the amount to risk = 5% x $500 = $25


Just remember, if you can win 55% of the time, you will make money over the long run. However, a string of 6 or 7 losses from time to time is inevitable. But so are streaks of 6 or 7 winners in a row.

http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

[2006]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> E = A - [(1-A)/(B/C)] &lt;----- This is the formula
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>I don't see the logic behind it but it should make for some interesting conversation.

[ATX]

similar to a formula I'm trying to develop to minimize streaks. I hate the ups and downs more than anything. It affects me psychologically, and other than money management and house limits that is the ONLY stumbling block.

What I've realized in this pursuit: DUE FACTORS

They are configured into lines every day, and that is why if you have more information than the oddsmaker on a specific team/teams for a given event one has a supreme edge.

I LMFAO at some people who say due factors aren't relative. DUE FACTORS are relavant b/c if a human being doesn't produce then they are replaced. Sporting events arent cards or dice where an event is ENTIRELY INDEPENDENT. NOTHING in a sporting event is ENTIRELY independent. He who has the best DUE FACTORS gets hired by the LVSC, the pure numbers are avail to ANYONE. The 11/10 is what beats the public- in addition to the books having an almost unlimited bankroll (by comparison), and the fact that the public has no idea what the NUMBER SHOULD be. In the NBA the number is off by an avg. of 7-8 points. In MLB even so called "handicappers" dont have a clue what the number should be, they just try to pick teams that 'wont' lose.
That formula has some merit, but the problem is that this market is so subject to change. As every day goes by, I am more compelled to adhere to my original belief- "YOU EITHER HAVE "IT" OR YOU DON'T!!"

drunk as a skunk.

[bblight]

Hmmmm!
ATX, I kinda sorta agree; if you add in the cumulative affect of experience.
If you haven't figured it out after you've gone through the learning curve, then ain't got it!

Good luck!

[couch_potatoes]

ATX good point:

"He who has the best DUE FACTORS gets hired by the LVSC, the pure numbers are avail to ANYONE. The 11/10 is what beats the public- in addition to the books having an almost unlimited bankroll (by comparison), and the fact that the public has no idea what the NUMBER SHOULD be."

Indeed the human factor makes team sports quite different from a random dice game. The way spreads are set, you must give more points on popular favorites because there are loyal fans willing to throw $ on their team for emotional reasons.

You gotta figure out what a fair spread should be, and take advantage when it is off by a few points. Admittedly it's easier said than done, but if this was an easy way to make $ the freeway would be full of chauffeur driven limo's.

[RobFunk]

:toast:

[3peet]

wow...looking back, I totally forgot I made this thread.

Gonna re-apply all the great advice here going into the NBA/NCAAB season. Its still early!!