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View Full Version : Hot Chick Bet - Record: 17-1 (+32.55 Units)

lakerfan
12-11-2002, 03:25 PM
TAKING HOT CHICK OVER 9.5 @ WSEX (3 units)
-150
450 to win 300

All the best - lakerfan
12-11-2002, 05:43 PM
olympic has it:

11 MILL

-115 BOTH ways

so.............
lakerfan
12-11-2002, 08:32 PM
Based on my numbers has value, but given that the -150 is still available at WSEX. I would either take that or pass.
Royler
12-11-2002, 08:38 PM
Took the -150 and then the -160 line at WSEX. It'll probably see -200 before close. Schnieder has never had a movie open to less than 10-12 million, with Animal doing 17 million. Also the only broad-appeal comedy out there. Solid line.
geeze
12-11-2002, 09:22 PM
Thank you.
AC
12-11-2002, 10:31 PM
looks good

good luck.

what are the numbers on Drumline? i think it should do 8 to 10 at a minimum.

AC
parlayin
12-13-2002, 03:08 AM
olympic has over 11 million +105
Son of a Gun
12-13-2002, 04:05 AM
I got down on it for Over 9.5 -170. I also hit over 22 +100 for Nemesis. I have a good feeling this weekend!!!
Royler
12-13-2002, 07:23 AM
SofG,

Yeah, I was a little taken aback by the even odds on Nemesis to come in over. Usually the Trek movies have a solid fanbase that you can rely on for at least decent opening business. You'll do fine.
12-13-2002, 12:53 PM
I just discovered this thread, so too late to bet on things this weekend. Just curious, what kind of limits do books allow you to wager on these?

Good Luck,
Bart
monkey82
12-13-2002, 01:43 PM
Star Trek Nemesis and The Hot Chick, especially, should tank this weekend. It will take some luck to win these bets, IMO.
parlayin
12-13-2002, 01:58 PM
monkey, what are the reasons?
lakerfan
12-13-2002, 02:23 PM
Bart,

WSEX has $300 limits, but most can bet as much as they want as the odds change with every bet.

OLY has different limits. Usually no lower than $200 and no higher than $500. They allow you to usually bet again when the odds or the line changes.

monkey 82,

One can't win them all, but I think Hot Chick has a very good chance to go OVER. As for Star Trek, in an even money bet if I HAD TO take a side I would take the over at 22, but I didn't make that play. I never like to see you on the other side of a play, but such is betting /infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif .

All the best - lakerfan
Royler
12-13-2002, 09:13 PM
Gotta disagree with monkey82. "Trek" is always good for around a 20 million bow, and will likely take the #1 spot, followed by Maid in Manhattan and Hot Chick.

HC is the only broad-appeal comedy out there for the juvey set, and amazingly, Rob Schneider is usually good for at least a $10 mil opening. It was a solid bet, and I have two units at WSEX on the OVER 9.5 mil. Be very surprised if it didn't make 11-13 over the weekend. Analyze That was considered a bit of a bomb and still did around 11 mil, and that was for an "R" flick.

Now stop getting us riled. /infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif
lakerfan
12-14-2002, 09:45 AM
Looks like I am going to have my first posted loss in a while. Friday Numbers:

star trek 7.671
maid in man 5.681
drumline 4.222
hot chick 2.605
Royler
12-14-2002, 10:04 AM
Grrrrr! That's two in a row I've eaten!

It's possible Hot Chick could increase a bit today, but it would take a miracle for it to eek over 9.5 million.
monkey82
12-14-2002, 10:08 AM
Hot Chick isn't going over. Rob Schneider isn't the draw he used to be, and this movie wasn't any good.
AC
12-14-2002, 02:27 PM
wait for the sun estimates. hot chick is in 2200 theaters. sat business might end up being significantly higher by 2 or 3 million. if that happens then you will probably get there. plus, they might inflate their estimates on sun to get it above 10 and then downgrade it on tuesday when official numbers come out.

when are these bets graded? if they are graded on sundays they are graded on estimates which are always inflated.

AC

ps. my estimates had maid at 6.5 FYI
lakerfan
12-14-2002, 05:06 PM
Y, AC the later release (by only a couple minutes) had Maid at 6.5. I tend to think that one is probably right although neither is the actual take which most movies will have official tomorrow, but showbiz (6.5) is generally the best.

The grading for these bets is based on actuals of course /infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif .

I have to agree with monkey in that there is almost no way that Hot Chick goes over. It would have to have multiplier of over 4 which doesn't happen.
lakerfan
12-16-2002, 01:29 PM
Updated record: 17-2 (+28.05)

I am going to be taking a break from movies for a while. So if I don't comment on them you will know it is nothing personal. I have had other projects come up that are taking more of my time.

All the best - lakerfan