Golden Globe Awards 1/19/03

[parlayin]

Any thoughts?

-------------

Best Film Drama

About Schmidt 5-2
Lord of the Rings: Two Towers 8-5
The Gangs of New York 8-5
The Hours 7-2
The Pianist 12-1

Best Film Musical/Comedy

About A Boy 15-1
Adaptation 6-1
Chicago 1-4
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2-1
Nicholas Nickleby 30-1

Best Actor Drama

Adrien Brody (The Pianist) 12-1
Daniel Day Lewis (Gangs of NY) 5-6
J Nicholson (About Schmidt) 8-5
L DiCaprio (Catch Me If You Can 8-1
Michael Caine (Quiet American) 3-1

Best Actress Drama

Diane Lane (Unfaithful) 6-1
Julianne Moore (Far From Heaven 5-8
Meryl Streep (The Hours) 5-1
Nicole Kidman (The Hours) 5-2
Salma Hayek (Frida) 4-1

Best Actor Musical/Comedy

Adam Sandler (Punch Drunk Love) 9-2
Hugh Grant (About A Boy) 6-1
Kieran Culkin (Igby Goes Down) 15-1
Nicolas Cage (Adaptation) 1-5
Richard Gere (Chicago) 5-1

Best Actress Musical/Comedy

Catherine Zita Jones (Chicago) 7-2
Goldie Hawn (Banger Sisters) 15-1
Maggie Gyllenhaal (Secretary) 12-1
N Vardalos (Fat Greek Wedding) 11-10
Renee Zellweger (Chicago) 5-6

Best TV Drama

24 7-2
Six Feet Under 8-5
The Shield 6-1
The Sopranos 3-1
The West Wing 9-5

Best TV Comedy

Curb Your Enthusiasm 6-1
Friends 5-8
Sex and the City 4-1
The Simpsons 8-1
Will & Grace 2-1

[AC]

value plays only and I won't be betting these because GG's are unpredictable. but since you asked.


Best Film Musical/Comedy

Adaptation 6-1



Best Actor Drama

Adrien Brody (The Pianist) 12-1
(see other post for reasoning)


Best TV Drama

24 7-2
(show is real real good and is both critical and commercial success)

Best TV Comedy

Curb Your Enthusiasm 6-1
(this is the best bet. only problem is that it is foreign press picking. if this was the emmys, curb would be a lock.

we'll see how I do. and please don't bet too much.

AC

[parlayin]

hey ac, was lookin forward to your input...thanks for responding. do longshots pay off for awards shows? i know they did a couple yrs ago at the grammys, but it seems like favorites usually win. with your plays, you only gotta hit one so i guess its a good card

[AC]

there have been surprises at the gg's before. gg's set the tone for who will win the oscars. this trend has bee much more eveident the past four years. oscars are usually much more predictable but there is always one shocker.

like i said, these are value plays. i think the line is off and the odds should be lower. they all could win, but they all could very easily lose. so I wouldn't bet them heavy. I'M NOT GOING TO BET THEM. but you wanted an opinion, so I gave it.

curb is a pretty good bet. just worried that the foriegn folks might not get it. everyone in hollywood thinks the show is genius. as do I.

AC

[Royler]

Curb is not at all a good bet...not smart to wager with what "deserves" the statue, since that's all subjective. Goal is to figure out what ninety foreign press members think deserves it, and half of that equation is pure politics.

I have some thoughts on this, but probably won't post until I lay down money myself. Don't want the odds shifting too much.

AC is right, though...if it's a good night, I'll probably lose a 1/3 of my wagers. Thing is, this isn't predicting the future. They've already voted. You need to look at the hints in the media to figure out which way things have gone. There are some good 'dogs that will pay off here.

[parlayin]

please post when you're ready royler http://theprescription.infopop.net/infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

[AC]

royler: I'm being objective about curb, FYI. The foriegn press tracks what is hot in hollywood and larry david is very flavor of the month right now. as is HBO. so I think it has a good shot.

will be waiting for your opinions. smart not to post them until you bet them, considering the market for these types of plays is so small.

Ac

[lakerfan]

Not recommending others play these, but . . .

Jack Nicholson 3 to 1

33% chance of winning the Oscar but 50% chance he gets the Globe.

24 7-2

Best Bet. Tons of buzz and the other shows have already had their wins.

Curb at 6-1 might not be a "bad" bet as everything else has pretty much had a win except Simpsons. It does have a lot of Hollywood interest even though most HATE Larry David. This group of foreign press (like AC said) likes to be seen as hip and this is really the only choice that would do that. I don't know that this will win, but I think the catagory is more open than the present odds suggest.

N Vardalos (Fat Greek Wedding) 11-10

i think vardalos should get that easily, not so much for performance but because golden globes and hollywood love to hype up small budget film success stories, because of her greek background and since all the other established stars are not in any big movie, odds might not SEEM enticing but as far as i am concerned it's a good bet.

[AC]

if you talk to people who work in the biz, they uniformly hate that movie (greek). this isn't the people's choice awards. gg's will want some prestige, and greek will not give that to them. also, no one had ever heard of her before this movie, and that does factor into things. the chicago girls are the favorites her, in my opinion. I would take m. gylenhaal over nia.

of course, I could be poisoned by the anti-greek buzz too.

AC

[parlayin]

thanks for the responses guys..i will look into these

[parlayin]

its only a 2 horse race for best actor? caine has no shot?

[Oren1]

Daniel Day Lewis is going to win best actor. LOL.

[Royler]

Ok!

I've wired some money, and now I feel compelled to share my choices, coupled with explanations. I doubt the odds have shifted all that much, but your mileage may vary.

Like AC and lakersfan, I have to offer a disclaimer: these are NOT "sure things," even in the context of gambling lingo. I personally feel the odds of winning are conducive to making an overall profit. All I'm trying to do is guess the choices made by ninety press people, which, in most cases, is really a 50/50 split...usually only two nominees have a great chance of winning out of a field of five. For the majority of the nods, it really is "just an honor to be nominated."

But I could totally strike out. You could, too. No crying to me. http://theprescription.infopop.net/infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

MONEY PLAYS

Best Actor in a Drama: Jack Nicholson

Even though oddsmakers disagree, it's widely believed by most pundits that Jack Nicholson has this tied up. Why? For one, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (the people who vote on this stuff) adores him. They love his antics and his attitude. When he won a Globe five years ago for "As Good As It Gets," he mooned the audience. They ate it up. (Well, not his ass, but the gesture. You get what I mean.) He is tied with Rosalind Russell for most Globes won (5), and they will likely see this as a chance to honor him with the record. Beyond that, he's been nominated 14 times. If Jack so much as sneezes on film, he gets noticed. If it's Jack really hitting the mark, he wins. AND he apparently has ties with many members of the voting media.

But this is a close race...anyone who saw "Gangs of New York" - hell, anyone who saw clips of it - saw what a brilliant performance Daniel Day-Lewis gave. The guy inhabits this psychopathic character to the point of being eerie. So him deserving the award isn't in question. As a point of fact, the argument could be made that Jack has enough of the damn things, so it's time to share the wealth. What's more, these two tied at the Film Critics' ceremony on Friday. It doesn't get any closer.

But you need to look at why he *won't* win...namely, the guy is a virtual recluse, and some press members may look upon that as him acting "above" this sort of fluff. These awards are voted on by members of the press, and Day-Lewis rarely interacts with them. Second, as AC has pointed out, Hollywood seems to hate "Gangs." Why, I couldn't begin to tell you. But they don't seem eager to honor it. Furthermore, his role is more a supporting one in terms of screen time. Finally, the press may feel that the Oscar will go to Day-Lewis, so it's up to them to honor Jack here. Maybe they won't have another chance to have him obtain the record for winningest Globe actor.

And one other aside: many members of the HFPA are over the age of 60, with perhaps a dozen (of the 93 members) over eighty! Which character are they more likely to identify with: a sadistic gang leader or a forlorn senior citizen?

All things considered? At OLY, I have odds of 3-1 on Nicholson. On a $500 risk, that's a $1500 payout, and obviously what I'm hoping for.

Adrien Brody is the dark horse here, and if the Globes want to shock, they'll cut him in. I'm banking they won't. OLY has odds on Brody at 10-1, so for $100, it's wise to hedge your bet a little further. I didn't.

I was also going to hedge big time by taking the EV odds on Day-Lewis at BoDog.com, but those imbeciles won't raise the $50 max on the novelty wager. So much for being 90% covered. I gotta LOL at that one. BoDog won't be seeing any of my business.

I am ****ed if the Globes pull a weird surprise and award the Globe to Michael Caine or Leonardo DiCaprio. Caine won a few years ago, and the press likes him, too, but I'm just not really anticipating that. DiCaprio was lucky to even be nominated.

The bottom line is, anytime you can get +300 on a two-horse race with a better than 50% chance of winning, you best ****ing take it. If I eat it, I eat it. I can handle that knowing I made an intelligent wager. I am NOT encouraging anyone to risk this amount, but odds like these do not come along very often.


Best Actress in a TV Drama: Edie Falco

For my money (literally), this is the value play of the night. Falco is 9-2, but damn, she was unbelievable in the season finale of The Sopranos. The show itself isn't destined for any other awards after a lackluster season, but I can't believe the press would ignore the performance of a career. She won back in 2000, but I don't see why it can't be repeated here. Jennifer Garner won last year, and Rachel Griffiths won Best Supporting Actress at the same time (she got bumped up to Best Actress this year), so that leaves Allison Janey to **** me up, assuming they don't feel the need to repeat. Pundits are split between these two. Entertainment Weekly and TV Guide agree with this choice, among other outlets. Risk/payoff here is fantastic, unless Garner upsets again. I just don't see that happening. Risking $500 to win $2250.


LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY

Before I get flamed...this is the very defintion of a "novelty" bet. DO NOT TAKE MY CUE HERE! I'm doing this purely for the hell of it. I DO NOT EXPECT TO WIN.

Took "The Pianist" for Best Drama at 10-1. "Two Towers" absolutely will not win: if they get nods, it'll be for the last film in the series next year. "GONY" suffers from Hollywood politics. "About Schmidt" is about Nicholson, and (hopefully) his Best Actor reward will be enough. That leaves "The Hours" and "Pianist." Hours was initially a 'dog, and then goldderby.com and America's Line proclaimed it to be the heavy favorite: it has a ton of noms and the Globes are attracted to the snotty literary stuff. OLY went from a 4-1 line on "Hours" to a 4 to 5 line. BoDog stayed at 3-1.

This morning, I woke up and visited the aforementioned goldderby.com site, and Tom O'Neil, a noted awards pundit, says he's changing his tune from "Hours" to "Pianist" purely because he's sensing a ton of support for the flick now that he's in the thick of the pre-ceremony schmoozing. O'Neil picked 14 out of 16 Grammy nods correctly and has written books on this subject, so I'll defer to him, especially with 10-1 odds. $500 on "Pianist," my longest shot of the night, to win $5000.

Anything else I shied away from, either due to poor odds or a murky outcome...brief thoughts...

Matt LeBlanc is said to have great chances for Best Comedic Actor, but Jennifer Aniston is a "sure thing" for Best Comedic Actress, and it's said they may not want to give these two awards to the same show.

Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical is too wide open to call. Zellweger will likely take it, but Zeta-Zones apparently steals every scene she's in. And they may decide to acknowledge "Greek Wedding" here by canceling out the "Chicago" votes and giving it to Varlados. Stay away from this one.

Chicago is guaranteed to win Best Comedy/Musical, but the odds are terrible.

Been doing a lot of research and thinking, and I like my chances. There are "surer" things on the card, but the odds reflect that, and after all, this is a subjective awards ceremony...I'd rather risk on odds of 3-1 than 1-1 when you could just as easily lose on the "guarantee" (Scorcese, Aniston). My max payout if I hit 3 for 3 is about 10k. My max loss is $1500. I may fool around a bit more before the telecast. Hitting just one out of the three will see a profit. Good luck to all!

[AC]

good luck, I like the Edie Falco bet a lot.

also, the pianist at 10-1 odds is excellent value. the only problem that I see is that The Hours is looking very very strong.

AC

[Royler]

AC,

Absolutely. As I stressed, "Pianist" is the longest of long shots. However, I still feel this category is a two-horse race (like most of them), and 10-1 odds on a thirty-percenter is amazing. I'd be more inclinded to recommend somebody laying $100 on it. That's the kind of bet it "feels" like. I may have overshot.

It's being said that the HFPA wants to award the "important" or meaningful film. I would've taken "Hours" when it was 4-1, but history is history. What Tom O'Neil posted really motivated me.

Still thinking about some last-minute wagers. I could hedge on "Hours" at 4-5, as well as Allison Janey at 2 to 1.

I also like Chiklis' chances for Best Drama Actor at 5-2. I don't see Sutherland winning a second year in a row (although the HFPA has given Sara Parker three Globes in a row).

I think my choices are solid.

[lakerfan]

Nice write-ups Royler. Well researched. All the best tonight.

took a shot at edie falco and jack based on your write-up.....missed the presentation,but,looks like falco may have won....that salves my eagles loss earlier today....really appreciate your input......good job.....

[lakerfan]

Nice call AC:

HBO's acerbic sitcom ``Curb Your Enthusiasm'' won best TV comedy series.

``This is a sad day for the Golden Globes. It is however, quite a good day for Larry David,'' joked David, the star and executive producer of the show. ``I suspect the wife will be a little forthcoming tonight.''

[lakerfan]

My best bet 24 goes down as The Shield won best TV drama, and Michael Chiklis the main actor on the Shield got best actor.

It is great show by the way, recommend it to anyone who likes the quality of HBO shows (but it is on FX). First season is on DVD for anyone who has missed it.

[lakerfan]

Nice call Royler:

The dramatic TV actress award went to Edie Falco (news) for her performance as the unhappy wife of gangster Tony Soprano in HBO's "The Soprano." Gasping that she was suffering from laryngitis, she accepted her award by flapping her hands and whispering, "I can't talk."

[lakerfan]

Jack wins. http://theprescription.infopop.net/infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

[AC]

my girlfriend got very excited about the possibility of betting on the awards when I mentioned it to her around 4:30 PST today. she thought she had a couple of the musical selections nailed. I was going to throw a few bucks on my 6-1 picks and the pianist and coattail royler on the edie falco bet. (congrats btw)

evidently though these things don't work like sports bets and they were not available for wagering, even though the event hadn't started. of the books that offer this, I only had $$ at oly, so that was the only book I checked.

AC

[AC]

ps. since my girl was so disappointed, I offered to book her action. she doesn't really understand how these things work, so she was pissed when I told her if she wanted Chicago for best musical/comedy, she was going to have to pay $1 to win .50 cents. everything else I either gave her at the odds I knew or at 110 to win 100. she wasn't really pleased about the vig, but I figured it was a good object lesson.

needless to say, she lost her BIG bet of $55 to win 50 on best score! she had the hours and I just checked and it was a loser.

so it wasn't a total loss for me.

AC

[Royler]

Excellent night! Pianist struck out, but I really expected that...still very profitable.

I was also jazzed to see the Shield and Chiklis win...had the trigger on both, but didn't pull. No complaints!

AC, great call on "Curb." Lots of surprises tonight. Glad mine weren't on the list. http://theprescription.infopop.net/infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

OLY did seem to close the lines earlier than expected...I ran upstairs at 7:00 or so to think about some other plays and they were down, even though post time was 8 PM.

[lakerfan]

I like bets to stay open as long as possible, but events that only have 90 voters I can understand closing a little early for added protection.

I also think books that take a big (relative) bet on entertainment and movie props should get kudos. I understand BoDogs $50 max, but those who take $500 are really willing to books some action.

WSEX and their movie betting (although not on this event) comes to mind.

[Royler]

True. With rare exception, OLY and MVPSportsbook are the only two places I do business. Reliable and fair.

WSEX...well, since I've lost my ****ing shirt on movie gross props, their higher limits weren't a good thing. http://theprescription.infopop.net/infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

[parlayin]

hey, thanks everyone for replying in my thread. good banter. AC, that was hilarious about your girlfriend. i can't believe u gave her -200 on chicago though...it was -400 or -500 everywhere else! great call on curb your enthusiasm!

[AC]

what is really funny is that she wouldn't take the bet! she thought I was ripping her off.

AC