Movie Bet - Record 17-2 (+28.05 units)

[lakerfan]

TAKING The Recruit -1/2M (vs Biker Boyz) @ THEGREEK.COM (2 units)
-115
230 to win 200

[Son of a Gun]

Lakerfan, care to share the reasoning behind this pick? You're record is hot so i'm not doubting you but just curious. GL man!

[Royler]

"Biker Boyz" is as absurd a title as Hollywood as ever come up with.

It's a solid bet. "Recruit" has a huge advantage in that it's opening in more theaters and doesn't look as silly as its competition.

Hmmm...

[franks.]

I was about to ask for opinions on this one.
According to Box Office Mojo, the Recruit opens
in 600 more houses, and I haven't seen too many
ads for Boyz. Like this one also, just looks too easy. Feedback please.

[Royler]

Well, notihng is ever "too easy." http://theprescription.infopop.net/infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

BB is going after an urban audience, which is usually pretty reliable for a decent opening weekend. I still think this will flop like a fish. Coming after "Fast and the Furious," it looks redundant. And again, that title...it's making people giggle.

"Recruit," on the other hand, boasts no hugely original concept (looks like a retread of "Spy Game" to me) and no bankable stars. (Pacino is Pacino, but he doesn't open movies.)

I do like the line on "Recruit" +6 million over "Final Destination 2." Assuming both bring in around 10-12 million, that looks to be an easy win as well.

I never bet until the last minute, as lots of things can change. We'll see.

[lakerfan]

Son of a Gun - Last summer I was publishing full page analysis for each pick, now I am more in the thinking that I like to keep some of my angles to myself, so am just posting picks for this weekend.

Agree with Royler that betting early in the week is more risky, but I don't think you will see this line on Thursday.

Also I generally won't go against urban focused films. Theater counts aren't as big a deal for these films because the Per-Screen-Average is generally pretty high.

With that said, I have a number of factors pointing to this line being off by quite a bit so I am betting it and posting it.

[Son of a Gun]

Lakerfan,
I can respect that. I got down for 230/200 myself last night. Obviously it has been pounded as it is now -220/100. Certainly if this pick doesn't feel right, we can take Biker boyz +175 and fully recover our laid down $230 guaranteeing ourselves at least about 70 bucks if Recruit wins. But i don't see i that i need to as of the moment.

BOL to us. This one looks good. By the way, I drank myself to sleep over last week's Confessions. I should've bought it back!!!

[AC]

good luck, but i think the recruit is a bomb. audiences won't come out for pacino and i don't think the public cares about colin farell (hwood loves him though). biker boyz should easily do a solid 12. the urban audience is an automatic and then the hope is to get teens. recruit will not get any teens at all. therefore its audience is all 25 plus and they haven't been going to the movies. been wrong before though and will be wrong again.

AC

[lakerfan]

Weekend Actuals (very close to Weekend Estimates released yesterday)

Recruit 16.30
FD2: 16.02
Boyz: 10.11

Updated record: 18-2 (+30.05 units)

Made it to 90% over 20 picks. Didn't think I would make it.

[Son of a Gun]

congrats again

[gkl895]

Yea nice job lakerfan...thats incredible.

thanks lakerfan, appreciate it, although i didnt catch this on time i ll make damn sure i catch the next one! http://theprescription.infopop.net/infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

[the70srule]

So when do they close the picks on Olympic? I attempted to Friday morning and couldn't find them, and WSEX all were closed as of 11am eastern.

[lakerfan]

WSEX usually closes at 11 AM EST. Olympic used to close at 12 EST, but now usually closes much earlier in the morning (6 AM EST).