With NBA approaching, Any betting suggestions?

[The General]

Is it tough for you? How does it rank among your capping preferences? Do you make money playing NBA? Any hints about "how to win"?

Thanks

[BillDozer]

General,
I gotta think your just trying to get a good NBA thread going becasue we are all excited about it. I think you know that the NBA is the real money maker. I'll try to find some of my old posts to contribute to the thread.

[qwerty90210]

how can u bet on this fixed league?

i remember u saying once they do not let u know who the refs are before the game

90210

[The General]

The NBA is as fixed as it gets. Many good arguments on this subject will arise.

Any suggestions are welcome.

[MadCapper]

either bet the home dogs or against the public

-MC

[dogs24]

Hands down, the league I do best in, year in and year out, is the NBA. It's not even close.

I've been a baseball fan for all of my over-quarter-of-a-century years, to the exclusion of all other sports. I never ever watched basketball, hockey, football, lacrosse or anything else...except baseball. I lived, breathed, ate and drank baseball throughout my childhood.

THen gambling started. And I learned that despite my obsession with the game, my poring over endless statistics etc., I could not make money betting it. My overall baseball losses are too staggering to even think about. But in the NBA, a league playing a game I didn't even know the rules to until a couple of years ago, I've always fared much better.

The greater success had to do with one thing: understanding home team advantage. Once I learned the strengths and weaknesses of particular teams, I would invariably look at lines on games and find them skewed -- visiting teams seemed to be treated very generously. When I first started betting, I went pretty heavy on visiting teams, and lost consistently. I then learned that it ain't just about the relative strengths and weaknesses of the competing teams: home court makes all the difference in the world. Since then, I've essentially used one theory when betting the NBA: always take the home team unless there is VERY compelling reason to take the visitors. This doesn't mean I take the home side 90 or 80 or even 70% of the time. All it means is that when I begin my analysis and research, I start with the assumption that I'm going to take the home team, and only if I find strong reason to take the visitor will I switch to the other side.

Seems to work for me.

[Fishhead]

Study team logs.......scheduling is BIG in the NBA!!

[jls626]

Bet against teams on the road back to back to back nites! Also BET the T'Wolves every damn game!

[The General]

Bet home dogs

Bet against the public

Wager minnesota every game

Look hard at the home teams first

Study team logs.......scheduling

Bet against teams on the road back to back to back nites

[Sodium Pentethol V]

Save your money.

Clearly the toughest league to beat.

Dogs24 guys is a big exception if indeed he is a multi season winner.

Have seen many fine men go down with the NBA.

[Railbird]

nba stands for "no bank account"

[Pancho Sanza]

I'm sure you're familiar with that railtrash. http://www.therx.com/forum/grem/1053174822.gif

[Sports Analysts]

Easiest sport for me....just like in the NFL i play halftimes most of the time with fading some teams in a certain spot. Most important thing for me is to hit the overnight lines, that's where the books are vulnerable the most.

[The General]

Bet home dogs

Bet against the public

Wager minnesota every game

Look hard at the home teams first

Study team logs.......scheduling

Bet against teams on the road back to back to back nites

Do not bet NBA

Look to bet the overnight lines & try to look @ halves over game wagers

[qwerty90210]

i can't figure this gang banger league out
its a joke now

back in 1990-95 it was a league

now since all the young hot dog college guys its a backyard pick up game

i have no clue on how the hell to bet the nba

the fricking last 60 seconds of the game is fixed

they chose to follow or they choose not

then they brick easy free throws

arggggggggh!!!

hate it, its the sport where you bet and do not watch...check your ticket like a lottery stub

my 2 cents
90210

[Patrick McIrish]

No chalk on the road.

[wallstreetcappers]

Bet against the Jazz..they are going to stink up the joint. They cant sign anyone, and will go into the season UNDER the cap by 10M and that is even with the huge salary of that big dope Ostertag..

The Jazz are going to be brutal..

[bosox1086]

Always do my best in the NBA. Home court is huge. Find a team with a shitty record that's tough at home... the Bulls last year for example and ride the moneyline when they're home. Going to be plenty where a free throw at the end decides it. Got to accept that.

[xoxojoe]

wallstreet I agree General add THE JAZZ WILL SUCK to the list

[FatFrank]

Fade the lakers... Always over priced!

[The General]

Bet home dogs

Bet against the public

Wager minnesota every game

Look hard at the home teams first

Study team logs.......scheduling

Bet against teams on the road back to back to back nites

Do not bet NBA

Look to bet the overnight lines & try to look @ halves over game wagers

No chalk on the road

Bet against the Jazz

Home court is huge. Find team with bad records, but tough at home. Ride the M/L

Fade the lakers

[Chuck Sims]

Betting on the NBA is one of the easiest to beat. Look to bet against the usual suspects.

[been_there]

NBA is the easiest sport for me..........
I make my #'s early, very early now that
the race has begun between Oly + Cris...
I very rarely bet either early...
But if you watch the screen, and play matches
Bingo....
I assume it's the same for most sports,
but in NBA I know when the move is wrong
and bet against for value...

BT

[The General]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Chuck Sims:
Betting on the NBA is one of the easiest to beat. Look to bet against the usual suspects.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Chuck, what are you referring too here? Is it the usual loser teams?

[Fishhead]

Again, consider scheduling as your #1 area of concentration.

[The General]

Bet home dogs

Bet against the public

Wager minnesota every game

Look hard at the home teams first

Study team logs.......scheduling

Bet against teams on the road back to back to back nites

Do not bet NBA

Look to bet the overnight lines & try to look @ halves over game wagers

No chalk on the road

Bet against the Jazz

Home court is huge. Find team with bad records, but tough at home. Ride the M/L

Fade the lakers

look to bet against the ususal suspects??

Pay attention to early lines

[EveryGamblersDream]

Look into team totals! Some situations & teams are like clockwork. They get overlooked bigtime in my opinion.

[EveryGamblersDream]

Oh & I also suggest quarter bets as like with team totals, some situations & teams are like clockwork.

[The General]

Bet home dogs

Do not bet NBA

Fade the lakers

No chalk on the road

Bet against the Jazz

Bet against the public

Wager minnesota every game

Pay attention to early lines

Study team logs.......scheduling

Look hard at the home teams first

look to bet against the ususal suspects??

Bet against teams on the road back to back to back nites

Look to bet the overnight lines & try to look @ halves over game wagers

Home court is huge. Find team with bad records, but tough at home. Ride the M/L

[BoZZi]

I've made a first half system based on the last 3 years that worked very well in the playoffs so thats what i'm going to use.....

this trend has been proven to be money in the last couple of years...

Go against a team that is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the third game has to be the backend of a B2B + it has to be on the road.

Minnesota sucks when their playing their second of B2B road games...like 4-16 ats but not exactly sure bout the record but its in that area somewhere.

[DNoonan]

agreed that NBA is tough

I try to pick my spots and keep my eye out for team trends/spots that may be profitable, like the denver 2nd half under some of the boys were hitting or for a while the bulls were very tough in the first half and a few years back the Lakers second half seemed to be a profitable venture most of the time

who knows what this year will hold...

good luck

[cincy_]

I have a fail proof system to bet the NBA.

Single unit play:

GO AGAINST ME!!!!!!!

I su@k at capping NBA games, so if you just go against me, you'll have a 60%+ system going. I am the anti-lock (is the anti-lock = the key?). Bet against me and you're a winner - guaranteed.

Double and triple unit plays:

GO AGAINST ME WHEN I REALLY LIKE A GAME!!!!

If I am either (a) chasing or (b) telling you that I REALLY like a certain team, hammer the opposite and you'll be rolling in dough.

[The General]

Follow trends

Bet home dogs

Do not bet NBA

Fade the lakers

Fade cincy_hugg

No chalk on the road

Bet against the Jazz

Bet against the public

Wager minnesota every game

Pay attention to early lines

Study team logs.......scheduling

Look hard at the home teams first

look to bet against the ususal suspects??

Bet against teams on the road back to back to back nites

Look to bet the overnight lines & try to look @ halves over game wagers

Home court is huge. Find team with bad records, but tough at home. Ride the M/L

Go against a team that is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the third game has to be the backend of a B2B + it has to be on the road.

[BillDozer]

How about the denver 2nd hlf under last yr?? $$$$$$$ holl shit those were fun. This yr though has totally different team.

At the risk of sounding like a poster who goes against the grain on everything I'm gonna chime in again. I post the same way I cap games.. I try to get rid of all the irrlevant info and go from there. I think thats what capping is all about. You look at all the "trends" and factors by which the line is made and then remove which ones you dont think apply to that specific event. If you see the bulls -6 vs lakers you better figure out why before you take the lakers+6.

I like to use the mavs for a simple example. Last yr when they played back to back the O/U went down. I figured the O/U went down because people figured they would be tired but knowing the Mavs run at the same speed no matter how much gas is in the tank you may want to eliminate the 2 game in 2 night factor.

There are asome suggestions in this thread that are kinda dangerous, like fade the Lakers or play the Wolves. I have seen that advice everywhere. JUst makes me think the spread will be adjusted. The spread evens out favorites and dogs (in perception) so advising that is like saying a boxer is gonna win a fight before you find out if hes fighting Lewis or some featherweight. The linesman could give you either one at any given game.

So thats my suggestion. Don't use the same capping criteria for every game. Each game has its own applicable factors and each game presents idependant oppurtunities by perception of the public but even more so by the linesman.

[Hache Man]

Dont tease totals......

[The General]

Follow trends

Bet home dogs

Do not bet NBA

Fade the lakers

Fade cincy_hugg

Dont tease totals

No chalk on the road

Bet against the Jazz

Bet against the public

Wager minnesota every game

Pay attention to early lines

Study team logs.......scheduling

Look hard at the home teams first

look to bet against the ususal suspects??

Don't use the same capping criteria for every game

Bet against teams on the road back to back to back nites

Look to bet the overnight lines & try to look @ halves over game wagers

Home court is huge. Find team with bad records, but tough at home. Ride the M/L

Go against a team that is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the third game has to be the backend of a B2B + it has to be on the road.

[Steve McGarrett]

Bet the lakers every game, dont even have to watch the game, just collect the money you will win!

[WildBill]

Here is a very good tip. I notice everyone has ideas about sides, but the sharp money and what the books fear about the NBA are totals. I would say my balance of betting NBA is 20% sides, 80% totals. The lines are generally fairly accurate with all these factors you list often having effect on the posted number. I have seen teams playing back to back games having a line 5 points off what the power ratings would suggest, just because all the bettors are loading up on the rested team.

Stick to totals, its hard many times for the books to put up a proper number. There are games where I will think two teams will score 150 points, but the books never put numbers up that low or else they will not get balanced action. Focus on those games between very low or very high scoring teams and bet accordingly. You will be in good shape betting some of the best opportunities there are in all of sports betting.

[BillDozer]

I agree with wildbill on totals being a good investment. I also probably bet 2 totals for every side. It seems as though totals are more likely to be off the number than the spread. I will see if I can dig up some numbers to support this.

[The General]

Follow trends

Bet home dogs

Do not bet NBA

Stick to totals

Fade cincy_hugg

Dont tease totals

No chalk on the road

Bet against the Jazz

Bet against the public

Wager minnesota every game

Pay attention to early lines

Study team logs.......scheduling

Look hard at the home teams first

look to bet against the ususal suspects??

Don't use the same capping criteria for every game

Bet against teams on the road back to back to back nites

Look to bet the overnight lines & try to look @ halves over game wagers

Home court is huge. Find team with bad records, but tough at home. Ride the M/L

Go against a team that is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the third game has to be the backend of a B2B + it has to be on the road.

[The General]

Come on guys. Give up the secrets. http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

[Hache Man]

Ok General, here's your next job/step. Now, take all of those suggestions, and narrow it down to what you believe are the top 5. http://www.therx.com/forum/grem/1036316054.gif

[BillDozer]

yeah pick the flowers out of the weeds (and a lil bit of dogshit).

[The General]

Tough to do Hache. To each their own. NBA is tough for many. The officials are some of the best actors in any sport.

[wilheim]

/////