Why would anyone ever wager on a pre season football game? [Archive] - Sportsbetting Forums | Offshore Sportsbooks & Online Sports Picks

SaintJoe57

08-09-2003, 08:06 PM

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> Preseason is so much easier to beat than anything. I like it more than MLB honestly. The coaches say what they are going to do and how long the main guys will play. It doesn't get much easier. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

The NFL has sent out memos to all head coaches asking them not to say how long certain players will play. Just saw this the other day surfing around the web will try to find the article & post it.

TTinCO

08-09-2003, 08:18 PM

SJ57, I heard on the pregame show (local only I think) that Plummer was only going to play 10-12 plays.

Interesting point about the memo's. I usually don't hit the pre-season games until the second half of preseason, but may have to pass if you are correct.....that info is often like gold when you can find it.

lander

08-09-2003, 08:23 PM

Good info guys, I would have personally thought there was little to no value in it due to the fact that all the bums play *sometimes* 80%+ of the game.

TTinCO

08-09-2003, 08:33 PM

Lander, the last couple of years it was fairly easy to find out who was playing what if you could get info from the local press.

Hell, you could get the whole gameplan if you knew someone in the media.

DE NIRO

08-09-2003, 08:41 PM

you actually think its easy

you can make a fortune on preseason??

you are underestimating the bookmakers, boys

kimchee

08-09-2003, 09:54 PM

BOYZ... Just come clean and ADMIT The REaL Reason you're betting Pre-season . YOU CAN'T FvCKIN' WAIT , can you ? You may as well Flip a Coin ...But I'm Sure you'll find a way to think there's "value" so you can get your adreline rush . DENIRO's Right... There are NO Gifts in VEGAS ! JUST Fvckin' WAIT and BE Patient for something YOU REALLY LIKE ...HOMOS !

blue edwards

08-09-2003, 09:58 PM

kimchee, you been eating the paint chips from beantown jim's apartment?

tgoodm1

08-09-2003, 10:05 PM

I agree with kimchee. There can not possibly be any more value than in the regular season. Especially when a coach does not consider the game to be important enough to play their best players long enough to pull out the win.

I think those on this forum who do feel that more info is available, which I do not see, are just trying to justify wagering on preseason action. I consider you to be compulsive gamblers because if you do wager at this time of the year, the result is just as good as flipping a coin.

TTinCO

08-09-2003, 10:15 PM

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by Boxing Freak:
Especially when a coach does not consider the game to be important enough to play their best players long enough to pull out the win.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yeah, that's worthless info......
http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_confused.gif http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_confused.gif http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_confused.gif

[This message was edited by TTinCO on August 10, 2003 at 01:42 AM.]

kimchee

08-09-2003, 10:39 PM

BLUE ... IF you wanna bet GO 4 IT ... I'm just stating given the circumstances ( 1t Fvck'in week ) ,It's Hard to Believe You Can Get any Edge or Feel for a Fvckin' PRE, PRE, PRE , PRE SEASON GAME . It's so Fvckin' volatile , the coaches will change their minds whether to stick with a guy or pull em out . Half the time , They'll go for it on 4th Down when they should kick a field goal . Think about it , Would you really place your hard earned money on a game A TEAM HAS to win ( ex; team A is 4 and 3 and just lost the previous week at home and have another home game the upcoming week ) OR would you place it on some team YOU HAVE NO FVCKIN' CLUE ABout WHATSOEVER !?! personally, I'll wait to see what the fvck is going on before I rush to judgement Meanwhile BluE , You should Try some of these paint chips ... Shit I think I ate too many , I 'm thinking about laying the 4 on the Jets Tonight ! http://therx.infopop.cc/infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

el gordo

08-09-2003, 11:11 PM

i got killed tonight too, but had the cardinals.

harrington

08-10-2003, 06:47 AM

I agree with kimchee. The coaches don't even put together a game plan for these games and I recently heard from a local Buffalo Bill that some players don't even go all out in the preseason. Any action coming in on these games are from desperate players that are all excited that football has started and can't wait for the real bullets to fly. Putting a very small play down just for shits and giggles is one thing but I would never play a large amount on any preseason game. Later.

Big Lou

08-10-2003, 07:10 AM

Betting on pre-season is based too much on ones own opinion and information provided by the media or head coaches, which all too often is incorrect. The other day panther posted the QB rotation for the Giants/Pats game but they did not play in the order that he posted them at. Was the website where he got the info incorrect? Did the coach change his mind during the game about who was going to play? Did the coach flat out lie about the rotation? Too many variables betting exhibition games to get a consistent edge over the long haul in my opinion. I believe it's a good time to evaluate teams and players to see if you can find some teams who are ready for the upcoming season or if you can find some that have been over-hyped during the off-season (like I believe my Giants have been). At least it's NFL football which means the real stuff is not far away.

Are you going to any Bills games this year Harrington? Tried to get tickets for the home opener but no luck.

Big Lou

Dante

08-10-2003, 07:13 AM

I would have to side with the thinking that Preseason is much harder to cap for lots of reasons. A main reason in my eyes is that the coach's do not give a rats ass if they win as it really means nothing. They test there players out. thats my 2 cents

harrington

08-10-2003, 07:27 AM

Lou just hang around the stadium and about two minutes into the game you will get a ticket for next to nothing. I've never paid more then 20 bucks ever to get into a Bills game, and most of the time I get in for free. I've been doing this since I was 12 years old. Between the people I know taking tickets or the scalpers holding tickets after the game starts it's one of the easiest stadiums to get into for next to nothing. Some might think I am full of shit but I swear this method works every time.

Big Lou

08-10-2003, 07:38 AM

Since I come in from out of town and stay overnight I like to have the tickets in my hand. Can't see making the three hour drive without knowing for sure I will be getting into the stadium.

Big Lou

harrington

08-10-2003, 07:42 AM

You will get in, I'm 100% sure. And you call yourself a gambler! http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

Big Lou

08-10-2003, 07:51 AM

I'm big on planning ahead. I always go with a friend of mine who lives about 40 minutes away and has his duaghter every other weekend so the Bills have to be playing a home game the weekend he can get away. (On a side note, my buddy is the nephew of Ed Walsh, who was Jim Brown's high school football coach). It's such a small world isn't it?

Big Lou

tgoodm1

08-10-2003, 08:28 AM

Yeah TTinCo, it seems rather obvious that you fit the profile of a compulsive gambler.

By the way, what you quoted was not meant to be informative. It was just part justification for my not believing there to be value in the preseason.

And it turns out that that info on Plummer getting only 10-12 snaps resulted not to be so golden afterall because Plummer shined the entire time. I don't even know how many snaps he took. The point is that you will not expose any inefficiencies at Vegas when betting on the preseason action. Just wait until the regular season. Preseason presents us with the opportunity to scout and scout only. Why risk money on games when its been 8-9 months since the last time you saw these guys in action.

SaintJoe57

08-10-2003, 05:30 PM

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by Big Lou:
Betting on pre-season is based too much on ones own opinion and information provided by the media or head coaches, which all too often is incorrect. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Who the hells opinion do you use to cap Lou if not your own? I certainly rely on my ownself & where prey tell are cappers going to get info without the media unless your connected to an NFL team, which hardly anyone is.

TTinCO

08-10-2003, 05:56 PM

Yeah Boxing.....I'm full blown compulsive.

Let's see-I've bet about 10 fights & 10 to 15 baseball games since pucks ended. I better go now & find a GA meeting.

sean8499

08-10-2003, 07:09 PM

My philosophy is to ONLY bet on playoff games. The strongest teams know they can't afford an off-day so they go all out. Not always easy to stay on the sidelines but football is now an extra source of income that I rely on.

IDENTITY

08-10-2003, 07:25 PM

sean - so u do not bet alll year?

Big Lou

08-10-2003, 08:20 PM

I meant people seem to bet on the pre-season based on their opinion (like how rookies are going to play in their first ever NFL game or how a team is going to react to a new head coach) rather then time tested methods like systems, statistical angles, etc. My opinion rarely comes into play in making a wager.

Big Lou

ATX

08-10-2003, 08:59 PM

the majority of NFLX games are toss-ups. If you determine that player A will play for 2 quarters, how accurate is the line that you come up with? Throw in the numerous players who have played very little in NFL regular season games and how does that affect that line? I can see where perceived motivation and a specific gameplan may add value to one team, but this can be very difficult to quantify---and may change throughout the game.

I revert back to my assumption that most of these games are toss-ups, which adds instant value to the dog and the dog moneyline. And this makes 2nd halves even better, IMO. This does not apply to every NFLX game, but keep in mind that if you have a win% of over 60% across a small number of games, this can be as much a product of luck as it is skill. I dont see how someone can wager as much on a preseason game as a regular season game with all the question marks. Do people wager larger amounts on preseason baseball than during the regular season? Just my thoughts, and I suggest CAUTION, there are week 1 lines that look 10 times more valuable to me.

SaintJoe57

08-10-2003, 10:51 PM

The time tested methods, systems, & statistical angles that you refer to plays only a very small part of my handicapping. I think you use some of that as well as throwing some of yourself into the game to cap it. To each his own I suppose.

Railbird

08-11-2003, 12:50 AM

Books crushed all the wannabe wiseguys this weekend. Books cleaned up on Jets, Cards and 49ers. Books adjust accordingly now a days, preseason is not as good as it use to be. Too many idiots playing past records of coaches and over reaction to qb rotations. Much more value in tennis, golf or little leauge.

sean8499

08-11-2003, 08:49 PM

IDENTITY
Certifiably Crazy

posted August 10, 2003 10:25 PM
sean - so u do not bet alll year?

Yep. That is correct. My fate boils down to 2 or 3 big plays on selective playoff games.

CRANDELL

08-12-2003, 04:22 AM

5-2 in week one. Pre-season has always been a $ maker for me. Lean toward dogs.

Dante

08-12-2003, 04:31 AM

good job crandell

SSI

08-12-2003, 11:15 AM

last 16 dogs, went 11-5..

Railbird

08-12-2003, 12:43 PM

SSI,

whats that suppose to mean, you going to play 16 more dogs this week. past doesnt = future.

SSI

08-12-2003, 12:52 PM

actually rail, i am going to play all the dogs this week for 1 unit ($100). we shall see how it works out..

RobFunk

05-12-2007, 01:14 AM

bump

ITISWHATITIS

02-18-2010, 07:42 AM

just caught this thread. So easy, 15-4 this year. Really IMO so easy, they tell you what to expect. Follow some team and coaching trends. Best trends are good head coaches don't care about the first pre-season game. New HC's are always trying to win to prove themselves. I wish the whole year was pre-season. Andy Reid in Philly likes to win game #2.