A SECRET WAY FOR THE AVERAGE GAMBLER TO BEAT BOOKMAKERS! (by Sick Gambler)

Ok folks, forget what the Shrink says about how to do it. If you do it his way, you will eventually go broke, mark my words. All that crap doesn't exist, because no matter how big a loser you are in gambling, you will ALWAYS end up very very close to 50% in picking winners. So if you end up even hitting 52% lifetime over 100,000 games, you will be broke. This is a myth about taking opposite sides of bettors. The only reason all these bettors lose and go broke is NOT because they cannot pick winners. It's because the juice just adds up on them and they eventually go bankrupt. A good buddy of mine has easily hit over 51% lifetime, but is broke today because the vig caught up to him.

But if you really want my advice and NOT a silly tip like the Shrink just gave you, here is how you will really end up a winner.

ONLY ONLY ONLY BET OFF #'S. IF YOU ALWAYS END UP WITH A BETTER # THAN THE CLOSING LINE, YOU WILL BE A WINNER IN THE LONG HAUL.

IN NBA- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 1 PT BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE.

IN NBA TOTALS- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 1.5 PTS BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE.

IN NHL- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 10+ CENTS BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE.

IN MLB- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 5+ CENTS (10 CENT LINE) BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE

IN NFL- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 1 TO 1.5 PTS BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE, DEPENDING ON THE #.

_____________

This is the best and most accurate advice I can give you. If you ever see a book with a # that is different than everyone else, JUMP on it, no matter who it is. Even if you don't like the game. If the book bumps its favorite, take the dog. If the book bumps the over, jump on the under. Trust me folks, this works like magic. Let the book make your pick, not you. Once you start handicapping a game like saying, Barry Bonds won't win in the playoffs because he's a loser, or NO way this game will go over because the under is due, or the yankees have lost 3 straight, what are the odds they get swept and lose 4 straight at home, you WILL eventually end up in the poorhouse, mark my words.

Have numerous outs to bet into, not just one.

Don't bet over your head.

Stay within your means.

Do NOT chase when you have a bad night, and you want to double up on the late game. There will be 48 more bets to choose from in 12 hours.

Do NOT bet over 0.5-1.5% of your bankroll or you will be broke with 1 or 2 bad weeks. You have to stay in the game, because the trick in this business is to not go broke. Once you're broke, you are out. You will be able to raise your bets once you build yourself a little cushion.

If you don't find any good #'s that night, DON'T bet. DON'T just bet for the sake of betting. This will hurt you in the long run. If you wanna bet a tv game because you're bored, put in a very small bet on it, very small.

____________________

There you have it folks, I can sit here and give you a bunch more tips, but these are the main ones.

Forget what that Shrink is saying, he has NO idea what he is talking about. You will just go broke if you listen to that guy. Sometimes I wonder if this Shrink guy is really a square or not. If he wasn't so successful in this business, I'd swear he is. Thank God he gets the plays from someone. Can you imagine if he had to come up with his own plays? He'd be the #1 customer in the offshore industry. Books will love this guy. They would offer him free trips, free escorts, the works...

You have to cut down on the novels you write

I didn't read it ! Can someone provide the cliff notes version of what Sick posted ?

LET'S SMOKE SOME REEFER

Excellent post Sick. Basically, you're using the numbers to create your own "vig" against the bookie. Hell, if they can make a living doing this then why can't we?

I think this strategy is excellent in theory, but it takes a VERY "controlled" person to do this in reality. It's easy to f*** up a months worth of bankroll management with a few compulsive plays. More of less this is what bit Journey in the ass a few weekends back.

Sick, I'm curious - say you average 4 games a night throughout the year where you find these "reverse vig" games. What return do they generally average? I would imagine it would be +.0125 units per day on average. Have you actually calculated this?

sorry hung, but I'm a sick man.

lander,

at 1 pt better in NBA, you get about +.02%.

So if you bet 4 games day at 500 a pop, for 365 days a year, you will end up clearing close to 15,000 for the year, not including re ups, bonuses, referrals, (if you have friends) % back on monthly losses. And if you bet 1 dime a game, it's double, at 30k a year, not including all those perks. You can actually clean up if you do this. And you are right, this takes a lot of discipline. Tough not to bet on a NFC championship game if you don't find value.

Just trying to get to 1000 posts so I can get a free shirt

LET'S SMOKE SOME REEFER

[Shameless Schill]

Sick,
That was shamelessly correct and right on... The only better advice I can think of is to never gamble, drink or chase women and put all of the money that you are tempted to do those things with into bonds....

But that would be shamelessly impossible....

Do you know, particually in NFL & NBA, if there is more value in taking the valued line or trying to middle it against the current air line.

I suppose it depends on the situation, but lets say you found (I actually did find this, but didn't middle it) GB +1.0 & Chi +1.0 last night. Would you have taken GB +1.0 since most books moved to GB -1 or is it more adventageous to middle this line?

lander,

that's not a good middle at all. There are no ties in NFL, so that was a useless one. It was NOT a moneymaker. I would just take the value, which in this case happened to be GB+1. You will end up making more in the long haul if you just bet the wrong line and not middle or scalp, because when you scalp or middle, you are usually getting great value on one side and betting the real # on the other.

[go2guy]

For a moment before I actually read the title and not the actual post, I thought you were going to ask us to send you $100 for the info /infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif Nice write-up!

[Shameless Schill]

Go2,
As I am self-admittedly shamelss, I will be happy to send you MY neteller or paypal ID for you (or anyone else) to deposit $100. After all, I would be saving you from the temptation of spending it on the evils of vice!

[This message was edited by Shameless Schill on 10-08-02 at 03:53 PM.]

[Quewest]

Thanks for the advice.

Sounds alot like following steam to me. The books just love that... /infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

not necessariy cecil. If the Knicks are -2 painted everywhere, but one specific book decides he's a genious and thinks that the Knicks should be a little higher because the line is low. So the book makes it Knicks -3. You now jump on the dog +3. That's it, it's that simple. Where is the steam here? The game never moved. This happens quite often, believe me.

Sick, I think another key is finding an opinioned yet solid book that offers opinionated lines. It's not such as easy thing now days with more & more books "moving on air" with the DB screen.

lander

you hit the nail right on the head. Of course you can find 5 books that are off by 2 points in the NBA, but will you get paid? So find some books that are very opinionated, and make sure they're solid, because what good is a book if it's not going to pay you when you win.

[buckeye]

I can understand that if you can better the consensus by enough you can counteract the vig.

But you indicate bettering the closing # by n points, etc. How do you know what the closing # is going to be in any of those sports? If you jump on the "off" line and it moves the wrong way your "supposed edge" evaporates!

What if the book is 1' off consensus because it is the first to be hit or react to steam? So now the steam hits everyone and you don't get the other side at 1' better instead you got the one "off" at less than it ends at and get the worst of it being in the middle of that play!

I can see if you feel the closing number is 50-50 accurate and can consistently make plays far enough off of it to better the vig, but it seems like reading moves and accurately prognosticating the closing # has to be part of that equation, NO?

Earlier this year I saw an NFL total early in the week at consensus 41 and one out of mine had 40' and another seemingly off on its own at 42'. I middled it and it didn't hit(way over). By the end of the week it was at 43 consensus and 43' could be found. If I had used your method I play the und 42' since it was 1' off consensus at the time. But it is a hook WORSE than consensus closing in the end. This might be an extreme example, but it shows why I don't think its that easy to do what you propose! If you know that 42' book is sharp, maybe you play off of it instead. I didn't know they were onto a sharp line so I wasn't that sophisticated in waiting for a bigger buyback # though the winner was way over anyway.

GL /infopop/emoticons/icon_cool.gif

[dimeplayersonly]

that is excellent advice, the only problem with it is that the "average gambler wont follow it thats why they are average. the advice you outlined is what sharps use. trust me on this ive been dealing lines to the "average player for close to fifteen years.

[R Bryan]

That was the best, most relevant post I've ever seen in this forum.

No flaming, no off subject meandering, no idiotic social commentary, just damn good advice..a professional's advice.

dime,

I agree. But this method can be done by squares just as easy as sharps. All the square has to know is don't bet a game that is not off. I know it's easy to say, and it's hard to imply, because you have to be able to control yourself from not gambling when there is a tv game about to start. All you have to do is stare at the screen, and when you see a different line, you just submit it. It's that easy.

Buckeye.

I agree 100% with you. It could get tricky. But when you find a -8.5 and the consensus is -9.5, there might be a play come in on the dog at +9.5, and the line moves back to -7.5. Meanwhile, you now have -8.5, when you could have had it at -7.5. But also, it works both ways. You could have bet -8.5 when it was -9.5 painted, and the play comes in on the fav, and the line goes to -11.5. So now you have a -8.5 when the line is -11.5. You have to look at it like this,in the very long run, you will avg out very close to 50-50 in terms of line movement.

Mathematically, there is NO difference if you have two bets at 1.5 pts better

OR

two bets with one of them being 1 pt worse of the #, and the other bet being 4 pts to the better.

Just remember, it will all even out. As long as when you put it in, you had the 1 or 1.5 pt advantage, the #'s will fall your way in the long haul. Half the time, the # will move your way and half the time, it will move against you. And a lot of times, it will just stay like that and NOT move at all.

thank you mr bryan

buckeye,

I also forgot to mention that I say closing line because without a doubt, the closing line is the most accurate line. You wanna be able to beat that # anytime you can.

[curt]

I have a local book who takes all his lines out of the paper. There seems to be a lot of differences on college games. Should I just bet all the games where I have a better line? Also,on the pros he ups the line on certain games. For example this week,he made Philly 4.5 instead of 3 and SF 8 instead of 6.5. I did bet against these two and split. I take it that you are saying I will profit from this in the long run. Thanks.

[R Bryan]

A guy who takes his lines from the newspaper????

I'm moving to Maine tonight...Bangor, here I come.

[dimeplayersonly]

a local book that uses lines out of a newspaper will not stay in business very long ......thats a 100 % gurantee. should you use him? sure but i wouldnt try to beat him out of more than a couple of hundred a week, otherwise you might not get paid.

[eric dixon]

I always have said this "bet flat to increase your gambling pleasure"! And look for bad #'s!

I agree with everything sick says but I do like betting TV games, because thats the fun for me!

So I just cap the games and if the # is way off of what I have, I bet it!

Also if the public drives the total way up or down I bet the other side, so at least I get a positive #(baseball).

Example: Today, I guess, the public started betting the under so I jumped the over at 10(+113).

[curt]

I have had friends who bet with this local and he has been rock solid with payouts for years. I just started with him a little while ago. In the Cincy-Miami(Ohio)game on Saturday,he had a total of 53. I saw that Pinnacle had 59. I didn't try to middle it but bet over with the local. Final score 31-26 for a total of 57. The line is right out of the paper. He uses the New York Dailey News. The Saturday paper is printed in the early afternoon on Friday so he does not have the updated lines but the lines he does have are pretty true if you bet the Saturday games on Friday. I don't know what the big deal is becasue it can go either for or against you.

[dimeplayersonly]

first of all good luck with the guy, and if your guy can run a book using the lines out of the paper good for him, (especially if hes been in business for a while) its just that in my experience a person that runs a book using lines from the paper doesnt know much about the business, and all it takes is a few sharp players to shut him down pretty quick.

i've got 1 guy i play into here who takes it off the paper. It is great because when Shaq and Kobe are out and the line is now Lakers -5.5, I end up getting Dog +13 sometimes. Now here is the tricky part. This guy here is clueless, and I am very thankful that he has 60 customers and myself and someone else are the only guys who know what we are doing. They are all squares, I saw his sheet. But what I do is I have a settling figure of 5k with him. Anytime it reaches 5k, we collect. Sometimes i am meeting this guy everyday or 9 out of 10 days. This way, I cannot get stiffed by him because it's a matter of time before I do get stiffed by him. But here is the good part. I scalp and middle every game that is off with this guy with my offshore books. So here is the good news for me. I cannot beat this guy if my life depended on it. I must be down now over 300 dimes to this guy lifetime, and I love it. This bookie loves me to death. He thinks I'm the biggest square he's ever seen, which is absolutely great for me. I want him to think this, because it's a matter of time when i win 6 straight weeks and take him out of business by winning back the 300 dimes, plus interest. I just hope I keep losing to this guy. But i would recommend if anyone plays with a guy like this, settle with him on a daily basis if you have to. Don't ever make a figure run that high. It's a matter of time before these dummies go down.

curt,

yes, bet every single game that is off. The games that are off by a little, don't put much. But the games that are off by a lot, bet big on them. Try to bet the most for your dollar.

[curt]

So are you saying to middle? Or should I bet more with the local or only with the local? I appreciate your input.

eddie murray,

I'm sorry, but I really have NO f-in idea what you are talking about, but you seem pissed at me. Why??? Please explain.. thanks

curt,

I'm a wuss. I hate to admit it, but i am NOT a gambler, and I hate losing money. I am a bad sport and a terrible loser when i lose. So i do it the gutless way. But in the long haul, you are waaaaaaay better off gambling than scalping or middling. Especially if you can get big points off these games. You will clean up!! Don't be like me. If you are a born gambler and you have a strong heart to face those interception TD returns, or a missed extra point, then gamble.

[dimeplayersonly]

that does it im cancelling my don best premium subscription, chunking my computer out the window, renewing my subscription to the local paper, offering free 1 pnt moves on sides (and totals, no juice and hopefully ill retire next year. lol

[eddie murray,number33]

nevermind man, i guess we are on different pages /infopop/emoticons/icon_rolleyes.gif

eddie murray,

I guess it is you (journeyman). I should have known with the eddie murray, being one of the best Orioles player ever and you from Baltimore. I still didn't understand one word you said from this recent post of yours. It sounded like you were talking with your mouth full.

[eddie murray,number33]

you seemed to believe all the tabloid trash posted about me, which NONE OF IT WAS TRUE! none of it, oldfriend said i stole money from him, he said he sent me money pay pal,LIE! i don t even have a pay pal account never did...

just not easy when you see lie after lie and you can`t defend any of it!

even if it is on the net!

wtf, i felt like f-ing o.j. simpson!

journey,

i don't even think you know what the hell you were saying. You sounded confused. So what were you saying, were you insulting me? I don't really care if you were, but I was just curious.

Man, if I ever get banned from here, I will just come back like you with a different handle. Maybe call myself "Vladimir Guerrero, Expos lover" I'm sure no one will know it's me, seeing I'm from Montreal. It worked for you, and you're from Balty. /infopop/emoticons/icon_rolleyes.gif

[eddie murray,number33]

i know what i`m saying and i know what i read...

i guess you post so much you just forgot, /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif, no biggie!

BTW Eddie was the BEST player Balto. ever had!

journey,

I NEVER really cared what you did, it didn't bother me at all. It didn't involve me and you NEVER stole from me, so I didn't care. If you wanna sell things, go ahead, I don't care, it's not my site. But it just wasn't nice of you to hope cancer on Peep, or go to MW and bash us all here, or even threaten to kill Peep and slap him out. Those things were NOT nice at all. Aside from those things, you really did NOTHING that serious.

better than Ripken? You might have a lot of arguments there.

[Monkey4]

What is the best way to go about finding a local bookie to bet with?

[eddie murray,number33]

... /infopop/emoticons/icon_rolleyes.gif.......

he percieved(i will be nice) (i`m sure i`m being watched behind the glass)he percieved things that were way off what was reality, of course i took offense, i never said i would kill him, although i was infuriated by what he did and said...

eddie carried the orioles for years cal couldn`t have carried the orioles i was there, he hit 500 homers when that meant something too! 500 with todays exchange rate is about 620, he was the best player in baseball from like 83 to 87, he was the best clutch hitter in the game at the time!

Sick,

Some friendly advice....

Stick to scalping and middling because you aren't bright enough to figure out in advance what the closing lines will be on anything unless of course, you are a psychic or an orginator...

If you think even the above average gambler can do as you say, than maybe they can pass Calculus 3 for my nephew in Harvard, lol..

THE SHRINK /infopop/emoticons/icon_razz.gif

[Thrillseeker]

Tonight, the consensus line is say -11...5 minutes before kickoff, bowmans is at -12, carib at -10...which way do you go?

fortunately, I called all Sick Gambler's friends and they told me take the -10...so I took the +12... /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

thrill, that was a tough call at -10 and +12. This don't happen to me too often. If I was in that situation, I would take the side that the play was on. For example, if the line was 10 and going to 12 eventually, I would have laid the -10. If the line was 12 and going down to 10, i would have taken the +12. I don't know what was the play because I did NOT even look at college footsies tonight. If there was NO move on the game, I would have just middled it at -10 and +12.

[trader1]

SG,

Can you sign on to your MSN messanger. Thanks.

T~

sorry trader, don't have a MSN messenger.

sickgambler@hotmail.com

[trader1]

OK,

How come you don't take the 2 mins to download it? I'll email you. You'll understand.

it screws up my EA Sports pc hockey and baseball game. I keep hearing a noise everytime I'm on a breakaway or something. Last time, Saku Koivu had a penalty shot for the Habs, and I started hearing all these bells, which confused the hell out of me. I got nervous and fanned on the shot, as I had Hasek beat, these bells scared me, and the Habs ended up losing in OT in the playoffs, and I was eliminated. I came so close to advancing to the Stanley cup final and upsetting Hasek and the Red Wings. I never came close again to winning Lord Stanley, thanks to that stupid MSN messenger. Ever since then, NEVER again have I installed this crap.

[SÅTAÑ ¤]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Tonight, the consensus line is say -11...5 minutes before kickoff, bowmans is at -12, carib at -10...which way do you go? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
The opening line was around -9.5 on monday. Then it moved to -11. This morning the line was -11 then it moved to -10...then it started to move up again. 2-3 minutes before kick off thlne as -11.5 at Pinnacle then it dropped to -10.5, at carib the line moved from -10 to -10.5, at WSEX the line dropped from -11.5 to -11...so I would say +12 was the right side!

[SÅTAÑ ¤]

SG-
Nice topic!

Nice thread Sick. Very good.

Curt - good luck. Hope you follow what Sick is saying. When I was younger I had several opportunities to take advantage of these situations and blew them. I either was too dumb to take advantage or too greedy to make it last longer than I should. Went for the big kills instead of just milking the guy along and got ran.

If your local takes numbers from the papers he better be taking almost exclusively square action or be throwing out winners right away or no way can he last. Get on line and see where the numbers really are and take the best side of it. If you don't understand ask more questions until you do.

These are the topics some folks really can learn from.

[trader1]

Mr. McIrish,

Please sign on to MSN.

[grousmaster]

I like the = HENHOUSE = name much better.
Please go back to HENHOUSE ! ! ! !
trader1 sounds very gay

HENHOUSE

thats a manly name..

Let me try and get signed on. I have had such problems with it since my wife added another computer.

Don't ask me why! /infopop/emoticons/icon_mad.gif

[trader1]

Hey G-master,

Thank you for the entertaing post. I'm definitely not the Hen. SG just happened to help me out a when I needed it a while ago. Although, I always found the Hen an entertaining post.

What's next, you call me Mr. McIrish? UnF*cking likely.

Please sign on to MSN.

T

[trader1]

Why do you think I'm the Hen?

BTW Mr. McIrish is one of the most solid guys you'll ever find. I believe Hen is solid also.

[acw]

Who apart from trying to price up a game as accurate as possible also tries to make a prediction of how the market move will be?

[Owen]

There is no mention of risk. Over the long run you will make money...but what about the risk of going broke? Sick's advice is good for a solid bankroll. For those with a limited bankroll, I would middle and scalp. Open up LOTS of accounts and get to work.

Good luck

If the game went to 12 at most of the sharp sports books, but you can still get a 10, the right decision is to lay the 10 but NOT MIDDLE a 10 and a 12!!!

Why would anyone want to give up a 2 point advantage to be at a disadvantage with what I call a stupes middle (10-12 is weak)...

As I stated before, MIDDLING football is for LOSERS and you will eventually go BROKE trying to make a living doing it...

HOOPS on the other hand is a completely different story that offers a much better chance to win at!

THE SHRINK

[Owen]

Shrink...I guess I'm a loser /infopop/emoticons/icon_rolleyes.gif

I agreee that -10 and +12 aint the right move, and I don't want to get into specific numbers, but anything can be middled. I for one have have south florida +4 so miss -2.5. I don't have an opinion on the game so I play the numbers. Most would argue that I'm giving away my advantage when I take the strong side. I agree. But I am also reducing my risk. I still have an advantage on the play and my risk is minimal.

[curt]

I think my local has all squares betting with him. They have no clue about this. I will keep you posted on the differences in lines and will try it for awhile. On Saturday's college games is where there are most differences. Thanks.

"As I stated before, MIDDLING football is for LOSERS and you will eventually go BROKE trying to make a living doing it..."

Shrink, please add me to the loser list also... /infopop/emoticons/icon_rolleyes.gif /infopop/emoticons/icon_rolleyes.gif

And good thread all around.

[Thrillseeker]

I don't think I'd middle on a 10 and 12, but the halftime middle was a sweet 8 pts last night - and it hit...these are generally the sorts of middles that I look for in foots...

Memphis+12 at bowmans
memphis 13-10 at half with Lou -7 for 2nd half
final 38-32 Lou

[parlayin]

so 1% of BR on all the offlines ny the standards you laid out for each sport and i'm good?

[sidingman]

sometimes when the local is off 5-6 points i will put 300 on say for instance one side and then 500 on the side in your favor.this way you have chance to middle and also have 200 minus vig in your favor.hope this helps some

[Mr Landau]

The opening total for a college game is 52..the line moves to 54 at most sportsbooks..one book has it at u55.5...another one(Pinnacle) has it at 53.5

What do you do?

I dont know if you are the guy that posts at MW or not, but I took ov 48 and under 54.5 at the same time on last nights game. Of course I sided it, so if it went over I would come out ahead...

[curt]

I didn't try to middle this week but just took what I thought was the advantage with local book and got killed!! I bet four games with him and they all lost. He upped the lines on the pro games. He had Cinn.+8.5 instead of 5.5...Wash.+4.5 instead of +1...Cleveland...+10.5 instead of 7 and Seattle +6.5 instead of +3. Instead of trying to middle I loaded up on the four dogs figureing I was getting big value and would hit at least 3 out of 4. Instead I went 0-4!!! Any more advice? I need it now. Thanks.

curt,


I'm sorry to hear that. But you know the rule of gambling. You CANNOT judge it by 4 games If you go with such a short amount of games, you will lose your marbles. You should go by 1000 games. Hell, if you go by 4 games, then you would have thought Billy Walters is a big loser had you played his games 2 saturdays ago when he went 1-10 in 11 games.

BTW, how in the hell did you get those #'s? I'd be worried of getting paid with this bookie with #'s like that. How can anyone survive giving out #'s like this. You should not be worried in winning, but you should be worried in collecting your money when you do win.

[curt]

He has been in business for years and has always paid. I found out that just recently he got tired of always giving out the lines to everyone and decided it wwas easier for everyone to buy the paper. You never know week to week what lines he is going to up if any. Thanks sick.

[loxneggs]

First I would like to admit that I DIDN'T even read the thread by SG.

Second I would like to say the Sick is a liar and piece of crap and anyone who follows this losers advice is just going to go broke like Sick himself.

whoaaa!!

somebody's having a bad day. /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

Why all the hostility??

[This message was edited by sick gambler on 10-15-02 at 06:45 PM.]

[loxneggs]

just wanted to bump up this thread and point out the time of the initial fraud alert on Sick before all the NAB bashing!

[Keith Richard]

bump

[Am i tight or not?]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by loxneggs:
First I would like to admit that I DIDN'T even read the thread by SG.

Second I would like to say the Sick is a liar and piece of shit and anyone who follows this losers advice is just going to go broke like Sick himself.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
sick gambler is a great guy! He is not a scammer or a liar. I disagree, he is a not a piece of crap and he never played at Rio!

He is not a loser!

STFU Clevman! and stop creating multiple accounts stupid rat!

[zackzk]

Don't pay much attention to sick's betting advice..its only 10% true.
I bet even He doesn't practice what He is preaching.

[Budworth22]

How much of this is still relevant today?

What has changed?

[Fishhead]

How much of this is still relevant today?


What has changed?


For all SIMPLISTIC purposese what he is saying he very accurrate and true today.

SHOPPING for the BEST LINES and spotting weak numbers is much, much more the reality in becoming a longterm winner than "handicapping".

Sure one can win consistantly just by handicapping and doing little shopping, but the cases are in the minority.

Whatever the case, one can certainly improve their bottom line GREATLY by simply shopping.

[Iceman]

How much of this is still relevant today?


What has changed?
someone gave me this exact advice back in early feb. Betting college and pro hoops I had the greatest run of my life. I won over 65+units, hitting over 55% and it was simple. I had a winning day 75% of the time with ZERO handicapping involved. Lots of books, contant screen watching and a few more ticks and ANYONE could do it.

The one problem is I could not get the same results betting bases, just didn't seem to work and I looked for a bigger edge than SG said to have.

BY FAR the best piece of advice anyone could give a gambler was Sick Gamblers first post in this thread, it was dead on.

[Coach LT]

someone gave me this exact advice back in early feb. Betting college and pro hoops I had the greatest run of my life. I won over 65+units, hitting over 55% and it was simple. I had a winning day 75% of the time with ZERO handicapping involved. Lots of books, contant screen watching and a few more ticks and ANYONE could do it.

The one problem is I could not get the same results betting bases, just didn't seem to work and I looked for a bigger edge than SG said to have.

BY FAR the best piece of advice anyone could give a gambler was Sick Gamblers first post in this thread, it was dead on.



Different strokes for different folks. Since I basically do College Football ONLY, and the # of games overall is low, Capping and getting the best #s are close to being equal. I would, for me only, give capping the nod. I am also NOT a proponent of equal % on each play. I have an indicator that points me to the BIGGER plays and some might ridicule it. IT is what I call "The Hard Nipples and Goosebumps Predictor" When I first see a line and I get the HN&GB Predictor, I have had extraordinary success. Laugh if you want, but it works for me! Sort of like Alchemy of College Football. :103631605 :money8: LT

[LEYKIS101]

Different strokes for different folks. Since I basically do College Football ONLY, and the # of games overall is low, Capping and getting the best #s are close to being equal. I would, for me only, give capping the nod. I am also NOT a proponent of equal % on each play. I have an indicator that points me to the BIGGER plays and some might ridicule it. IT is what I call "The Hard Nipples and Goosebumps Predictor" When I first see a line and I get the HN&GB Predictor, I have had extraordinary success. Laugh if you want, but it works for me! Sort of like Alchemy of College Football. :103631605 :money8: LT

And I see Winbet has a similar indicator, called the IT(itchy testicle) or P.I.G(Pain in Groin) indicator.


:suomi:

[Coach LT]

[QUOTE=LEYKIS101]And I see Winbet has a similar indicator, called the IT(itchy testicle) or P.I.G(Pain in Groin) indicator.



Winbet and me will have to compare notes at the Bash! :103631605 :lolBIG: :party: LT

[Iceman]

Different strokes for different folks. Since I basically do College Football ONLY, and the # of games overall is low, Capping and getting the best #s are close to being equal. I would, for me only, give capping the nod. I am also NOT a proponent of equal % on each play. I have an indicator that points me to the BIGGER plays and some might ridicule it. IT is what I call "The Hard Nipples and Goosebumps Predictor" When I first see a line and I get the HN&GB Predictor, I have had extraordinary success. Laugh if you want, but it works for me! Sort of like Alchemy of College Football. :103631605 :money8: LT Hey if there is one thing I have learned from these forums is there is more than one way to skin a cat. I LOVE to cap and bet is as much as the next guy. Having opinion and seeing it come true makes us feel like einstein, no better gambling rush.

My point was this is the easiest way to become a winning player and it surprising how simple SG's approach is.

[Sugarbear]

When I find it again I will post what is the answer to the bonus whore delima as told by Sick G just a few months after he was aquitted. It started as one thing and turned into a debate with Java. Sick G won but both were right.

All should have listened to him. Bonus shoppers would long be a thing of the past. They say the guy who takes advantage of the system the best is the one to ask how to fix it. Only no one asked he just told.

[wilheim]

...

[Dawoofdaddy]

How much of this is still relevant today?

What has changed?



d1g1t

[nadalbg]

There is no way to beat bookies so easily :p
Learning that will help you a lot

_____________________________________
http://www.betting-forum.com/

[scat131]

for bases and hockey, is he talking about the money line or the runline when he says .5/.10 cent differencial

[scat131]

anyone?

[goblue12]

For all SIMPLISTIC purposese what he is saying he very accurrate and true today.

SHOPPING for the BEST LINES and spotting weak numbers is much, much more the reality in becoming a longterm winner than "handicapping".

Sure one can win consistantly just by handicapping and doing little shopping, but the cases are in the minority.

Whatever the case, one can certainly improve their bottom line GREATLY by simply shopping.

I honestly don't know why more people haven't caught onto this. I've been doing this for 3 days and have made 12+ units betting nothing but bad lines. Once you figure out who the sharpest books are, all it takes is a few hours a day devoting your spare time to screen watching (which is a lot easier these days thanks to all of the line sites) to make some serious cash.

[Sawyer]

Ok folks, forget what the Shrink says about how to do it. If you do it his way, you will eventually go broke, mark my words. All that crap doesn't exist, because no matter how big a loser you are in gambling, you will ALWAYS end up very very close to 50% in picking winners. So if you end up even hitting 52% lifetime over 100,000 games, you will be broke. This is a myth about taking opposite sides of bettors. The only reason all these bettors lose and go broke is NOT because they cannot pick winners. It's because the juice just adds up on them and they eventually go bankrupt. A good buddy of mine has easily hit over 51% lifetime, but is broke today because the vig caught up to him.

But if you really want my advice and NOT a silly tip like the Shrink just gave you, here is how you will really end up a winner.

ONLY ONLY ONLY BET OFF #'S. IF YOU ALWAYS END UP WITH A BETTER # THAN THE CLOSING LINE, YOU WILL BE A WINNER IN THE LONG HAUL.

IN NBA- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 1 PT BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE.

IN NBA TOTALS- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 1.5 PTS BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE.

IN NHL- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 10+ CENTS BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE.

IN MLB- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 5+ CENTS (10 CENT LINE) BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE

IN NFL- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 1 TO 1.5 PTS BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE, DEPENDING ON THE #.

_____________

This is the best and most accurate advice I can give you. If you ever see a book with a # that is different than everyone else, JUMP on it, no matter who it is. Even if you don't like the game. If the book bumps its favorite, take the dog. If the book bumps the over, jump on the under. Trust me folks, this works like magic. Let the book make your pick, not you. Once you start handicapping a game like saying, Barry Bonds won't win in the playoffs because he's a loser, or NO way this game will go over because the under is due, or the yankees have lost 3 straight, what are the odds they get swept and lose 4 straight at home, you WILL eventually end up in the poorhouse, mark my words.

Have numerous outs to bet into, not just one.

Don't bet over your head.

Stay within your means.

Do NOT chase when you have a bad night, and you want to double up on the late game. There will be 48 more bets to choose from in 12 hours.

Do NOT bet over 0.5-1.5% of your bankroll or you will be broke with 1 or 2 bad weeks. You have to stay in the game, because the trick in this business is to not go broke. Once you're broke, you are out. You will be able to raise your bets once you build yourself a little cushion.

If you don't find any good #'s that night, DON'T bet. DON'T just bet for the sake of betting. This will hurt you in the long run. If you wanna bet a tv game because you're bored, put in a very small bet on it, very small.

____________________

There you have it folks, I can sit here and give you a bunch more tips, but these are the main ones.

Forget what that Shrink is saying, he has NO idea what he is talking about. You will just go broke if you listen to that guy. Sometimes I wonder if this Shrink guy is really a square or not. If he wasn't so successful in this business, I'd swear he is. Thank God he gets the plays from someone. Can you imagine if he had to come up with his own plays? He'd be the #1 customer in the offshore industry. Books will love this guy. They would offer him free trips, free escorts, the works...

People who can't hit above %55 think everybody will go %50. It's not right. You can make %58-59 on the long run. It's possible.

Not to mention, in labouchere methode you can make lots of money even with %40 winning percentage. Thanks to Matchbook and betfair, vig is really reduced today..

[Mr.Maxx]

Ok folks, forget what the Shrink says about how to do it. If you do it his way, you will eventually go broke, mark my words. All that crap doesn't exist, because no matter how big a loser you are in gambling, you will ALWAYS end up very very close to 50% in picking winners. So if you end up even hitting 52% lifetime over 100,000 games, you will be broke. This is a myth about taking opposite sides of bettors. The only reason all these bettors lose and go broke is NOT because they cannot pick winners. It's because the juice just adds up on them and they eventually go bankrupt. A good buddy of mine has easily hit over 51% lifetime, but is broke today because the vig caught up to him.

But if you really want my advice and NOT a silly tip like the Shrink just gave you, here is how you will really end up a winner.

ONLY ONLY ONLY BET OFF #'S. IF YOU ALWAYS END UP WITH A BETTER # THAN THE CLOSING LINE, YOU WILL BE A WINNER IN THE LONG HAUL.

IN NBA- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 1 PT BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE.

IN NBA TOTALS- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 1.5 PTS BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE.

IN NHL- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 10+ CENTS BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE.

IN MLB- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 5+ CENTS (10 CENT LINE) BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE

IN NFL- YOU MUST END UP AT LEAST 1 TO 1.5 PTS BETTER THAN THE CLOSING LINE, DEPENDING ON THE #.

_____________

This is the best and most accurate advice I can give you. If you ever see a book with a # that is different than everyone else, JUMP on it, no matter who it is. Even if you don't like the game. If the book bumps its favorite, take the dog. If the book bumps the over, jump on the under. Trust me folks, this works like magic. Let the book make your pick, not you. Once you start handicapping a game like saying, Barry Bonds won't win in the playoffs because he's a loser, or NO way this game will go over because the under is due, or the yankees have lost 3 straight, what are the odds they get swept and lose 4 straight at home, you WILL eventually end up in the poorhouse, mark my words.

Have numerous outs to bet into, not just one.

Don't bet over your head.

Stay within your means.

Do NOT chase when you have a bad night, and you want to double up on the late game. There will be 48 more bets to choose from in 12 hours.

Do NOT bet over 0.5-1.5% of your bankroll or you will be broke with 1 or 2 bad weeks. You have to stay in the game, because the trick in this business is to not go broke. Once you're broke, you are out. You will be able to raise your bets once you build yourself a little cushion.

If you don't find any good #'s that night, DON'T bet. DON'T just bet for the sake of betting. This will hurt you in the long run. If you wanna bet a tv game because you're bored, put in a very small bet on it, very small.

____________________

There you have it folks, I can sit here and give you a bunch more tips, but these are the main ones.

Forget what that Shrink is saying, he has NO idea what he is talking about. You will just go broke if you listen to that guy. Sometimes I wonder if this Shrink guy is really a square or not. If he wasn't so successful in this business, I'd swear he is. Thank God he gets the plays from someone. Can you imagine if he had to come up with his own plays? He'd be the #1 customer in the offshore industry. Books will love this guy. They would offer him free trips, free escorts, the works...


This does not apply to Ncaa football or basketball?

[Muddy]

thx