View Full Version : A SECRET WAY FOR THE AVERAGE GAMBLER TO BEAT BOOKMAKERS!
I am real serious here. If some of you find yourself consistently LOSING at sports betting, you may want to try this new technique...
It was once told to me by someone I respect and it's worth a shot...
Whenever you feel like betting on game, ask 4-5 of your friends who they like...
Let's use last night's Bears/Packers game as an example...
If 4 out of your 5 friends like the BEARS, then you bet The PACKERS...
It's that simple and one useful way of doing better...
I know there will be some sharpies who attack this technique, but I find it very helpful for many losing gamblers...
THE SHRINK /infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif
crazy vinny
10-08-2002, 06:31 AM
Shrink this explains why you always used to ask me who I liked LOL. /infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif
vinividivinci
10-08-2002, 06:35 AM
This is excellent advice!! The average player could probably easily beat the vig with this plan. The problem, of course, is maintaining the discipline to avoid one's own opinions.
VVV
Seymour
10-08-2002, 06:37 AM
In college I like Temple to beat Cuse, Miami to roll FSU and Missouri to play Nebraska tight. I don't have any NFL plays yet.
LOCOMOTIVE
10-08-2002, 06:55 AM
If you find yourself consistently losing betting sports, fade yourself!! Seriously, if you are only picking 40-45% winners, start fading yourself and you'll get 55-60% winners and start turning steady profits. Most losing bettors' egos would prevent them from doing that. Also, I think money management/chasing losses/impatience is what does most gamblers in. I think a lot of "losing" bettors get 50% (or even slightly more) of their games right, but they allocate more to losing bets and then foolishly chase to get their money back.
jwunderdog
10-08-2002, 07:11 AM
Great Advice very similar to a post Dickyw and I had in the College forum last week.I went one step further and just use to call my book right before game time and ask him who everyone had and would bet the opposite.Worked like a charm especially on single night games like monday and Thursday.
Is this replacing the "fade CHJ" theory as the theory of choice?
I don't believe this will improve many players results...
Homer J
10-08-2002, 08:19 AM
The problem with this is that anyone using this tactic is unlikely to have the discipline of money management. Sure you can come out ahead long term, but it is the ability to accept losing streaks and deal with them that seperates winners from losers.
jwunderdog
10-08-2002, 08:19 AM
NO, but the extra juice will help out the book.
bunyon
10-08-2002, 09:19 AM
What if you don't have any friends? lol
An easier method is to just fade Shrink! /infopop/emoticons/icon_razz.gif
neverstop
10-08-2002, 11:58 AM
random and you are not getting a good sample from a bigger consensus/population. If you did start winning this way i would just consider it dumb luck. If you are LOSING at sportsbetting QUIT while you are ahead. It's not for you. It's as simple as that. To be successful to me it's all about time,patience, different books, and a math background. If you have a wife and screaming kids how the hell are ya gonna be able to do all the research on a Saturday or a Sunday during football season? It's almost impossible i tried it a few times. The ones that can be successful are the guys that can lock themselves in a room all weekend with no worries in the world so they can focus on the task that's on hand (Middling, hedging, scalping, and most of all CAPPING LIKE AN EFFIN MADMAN).Also people that don't think you should be their at halftime to see what the line is of the game you bet on are usually not gonna be winners in the long run. When predicting you are foreseeing the future with all the possibilities, most sportsbettors just don't get it.
buckeye
10-08-2002, 12:13 PM
It worked for Trotter in "Let It Ride" ( my favorite part of that movie ) but you are more likely to go 50% than better, IMO.
One technique I did use was to find the "born loser" in the football pool I used to run and fade him. It dissolved years ago and I lost my "scholarship"! This guy was as bad/good as Loony!
Some fade consensus plays in pools as they figure that is all "major square" action. I'd say the pool I ran went 50-50 on consensus.
GL
Fat Tony
10-08-2002, 12:53 PM
But it isn't. I always play against the public and it doesn't matter. They lose just as much as they win. The Vig is the key. If you could somehow reduce it you have a shot.
P.S. Everyone and I mean everyone were on the Packers last night and the Ravens the night before.
Quewest
10-08-2002, 01:03 PM
Lets pick one game (just one) this weekend and have the members say who they like. At the end, lets all bet the opposite.
Will give the Shrink idea a try.
Thanks.
I have never understood the whole "fading" idea. I guess I am just too logical.
Lets see, the idea is that since you can't figure out how to win yourself, you find someone who is DUMBER than you are, and do the opposite of him.
Is there any other business that does things this way? Could you imagine starting a business, and at the corporate meeting saying "Here is our business Plan. Jacckoff co. has been the worlds lowest supplier of gummy worms. They are on the verge of bankruptcy. Our business model, will be to do everything the opposite of them, without letting our own decisions influence us".
Its a very strange idea to me, not to mention it would take the fun out of the recreational player picking the games. I guess its done in fun, but I still don't get it...
Can you offer any advice to a guy who doesn't have 4 or 5 friends? Thanks /infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif
Hamneggs- Voted America's Sharpest Player 9 years in a row...
silver7
10-08-2002, 01:59 PM
For some reason your reply struck me as funnier than hell!! I`m still smiling and I`m a pretty dour guy. Shrink BTW don`t think I haven`t thought of this when in the midst of a horrendous losing streak. But no one and I mean nobody has the balls to make his picks, do all the research, etc. etc. and then bet the opposite. I`d like to meat the man w/that kind of control. Gummy Bears Jeez! Thanks Cecil
Instead of calling around, simply call your local Bookmaker. Ask him, who does everyone have, or who is he short or heavy on? And simply go from there.
Even easier, simply monitor websites, which post ‘consensus’ picks for the day or week…write down the teams that have the least support, testing if you’d win more then you’d lose on paper…if you observe a tend over a period of time, start playing (small at first) moving up if tend continues.
Applicable Theories:
-Walk the opposite direction of the masses (public).
-The more certain an outcome appears, the least likely it will occur.
Simple Game /infopop/emoticons/icon_cool.gif
Cecil,
I agree 100% with your theory about fading people is stupid, but there is ONE exception to it.
It's called
cool hand JIM.
He is the only exception in this case.
The man is just a born loser. When this square is involved, you have to fade him. How can you not fade the world's #1 square.
He's the reason why the fade even exists in the gambling world. The fade was invented after him. If there wasn't a CHJ in this world, there would have NEVER been a fade in betting. He was the first guy faded back in '77, when CHJ started gambling. But aside from him, I agree, fading is silly.
Yes Hamneggs,
Go to our football forum and look at who the consensus of gamblers are betting on any partular game then take the opposite side...
I am not suggesting retiring off of this system but I believe that going against PUBLIC OPINION has a far better chance of hitting 52-53% in the long run than does the actual square....
And that should break you even which isn't all that bad...
THE SHRINK
The General
08-02-2003, 03:06 PM
Look for the capper who is hot and the capper who is cold. Fading either scenerio is a good measure. You must increase the roll a little each wager to get back some profits. Show me any capper who hits or loses 4 or more straight wagers ATS on a consistent basis. One needs to study more than one or 2 cappers though. Lets say your starting point is 4 and the capper hits 6, then no need to follow him again if you are playing others too. I do not remember seeing multiple cappers at once on 6-7 ATS winning streaks in NFL.
Thanks and good luck in 2003 http://therx.infopop.cc/infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif
stickn8ball444
08-02-2003, 03:14 PM
I used the same system in stocks, every one I pick would go down in price, needed to do calls and puts and started shortselling http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif
General,
You MUST know the historical win rate for an individual over time for this to be of any use. There are plenty of people that hit over 60% (they are selective) and fading these people "when they are hot" is really a bad idea.
Fading someone at any time that historically wins is a bad idea.
If you can ID the people who dont have a clue, and fade THEM when they are hot, this is not a bad idea. Part of the problem is that these losers typically disappear after a bad run, they run out of money.
It's a hell of a lot better, and a hell of lot easier to learn how to ID value and invest in yourself, IMO. Dependence is weakness.
Dante
08-02-2003, 03:30 PM
ATX..good post! you are being nominated for the POST of the week contest this week..good luck!
The General
08-02-2003, 03:32 PM
I understand ATX. It is not an easy task for sure. Alot of attention must be given, and when one lists plays that start at the same time or overlap, there presents a problem.
basesAREloaded
08-02-2003, 03:34 PM
Fade 'em all n' shop.
Plus side rules.
General,
dont get me wrong. I am playing devil's advocate, your logic in this example does work, but the trick is narrowing this sample down (getting rid of as many 50% scenarios as possible). And there are all kinds of overlaps, a game in one region may have one-sided action on one team, and somewhere else a bookmaker may see the exact opposite.
I dont know if you pay any attention to my plays, but I wager on a lot of games. Probably 20% of them are based on fading the public (in football and basketball). If I like a side already and find out that the public is going against me, I often increase that wager (especially if the line is moving with me). There are games that I dont have an opinion on (or dont see value in) and many times I will fade the public and throw a small wager on the opposite team. Look into breaking it up a little:
home/away fave/dog over/under line/move
I think fading the public is generally better at the end of regular seasons than at the beginnings. I dont think fading the public is a great idea in the playoffs, I got hurt a little at the start of the NBA playoffs. I havent done anything with it in baseball, I'm still new to that sport. Best of luck.
The General
08-02-2003, 04:05 PM
ATX,
Your mathematical insights are matched by no one here, so i dare not compete with your knowledge of numbers. Thanks for the feedback. As always, very good opinions.
Hache Man
08-02-2003, 04:19 PM
ATX, I have to agree, in the Football Forum yesterday when I suggested the Tampa game would go over the points and trying to decide if I should lay it, and you responded by saying it may likely go under, that was the "sign" this thread points out to go ahead and play the over!.... http://theprescription.infopop.net/infopop/emoticons/icon_razz.gif I'm only joking ATX! http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif Just playing around, I highly respect your opinions, and look for your help and suggestions on insight this football season. General said it all in post above.... http://www.therx.com/forum/grem/1036316054.gif
General,
I dont have as strong a background in math as you probably assume. There are many posters that are far more qualified in statistics. I'd say that my wagers are based on 70% logic (or more), 30% probability. When my logic fails, I'm doomed. I stated before in another thread that I think math often gets in the way. I probably spend 10% of my time trying to find the 'right side' and the rest of the time deciding how large a wager should be. To be honest, a lot of games take less than 5 minutes for me to handicap, the more time I spend on a game the more confused I get.
Hache Man
08-02-2003, 04:41 PM
Regardless ATX, your still obviously intelligent and informative, very easy to tell this is what General is getting at. You seem like a classy guy, keep it up.....Seems as though this forum only has Good Guys~~Or~~Bad Guys......Nothing in~between~...... http://theprescription.infopop.net/infopop/emoticons/icon_razz.gif
Hache,
glad you cashed with the over!! I havent tried to handicap the NFL preseason before, my opinion on it is has little value. My logic is that very few teams should actually be favored in NFLX (or at least not by much) so there is value on the points and the dog ML. I'm going very small, maybe I'll pick up some bank, maybe I wont. When the regular season starts I'll risk a lot more. I'm nervous about the NFL, it's been too good to me for too long...
cecil
08-02-2003, 04:47 PM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by cecil:
I have never understood the whole "fading" idea. I guess I am just too logical.
Lets see, the idea is that since you can't figure out how to win yourself, you find someone who is DUMBER than you are, and do the opposite of him.
Is there any other business that does things this way? Could you imagine starting a business, and at the corporate meeting saying "Here is our business Plan. Jacckoff co. has been the worlds lowest supplier of gummy worms. They are on the verge of bankruptcy. Our business model, will be to do everything the opposite of them, without letting our own decisions influence us".
Its a very strange idea to me, not to mention it would take the fun out of the recreational player picking the games. I guess its done in fun, but I still don't get it...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
The idea was just as dumb last year as it is now...
Hache Man
08-02-2003, 04:50 PM
ATX, I hope you know I was just joking up above, but thanks for the congrats, I just figured with Gruden wanting to see what his backups could do offensively, and Tampa Bay's ability to score on defense, that 32 points was too low. You will do fine this year in NFL, trust yourself, you haven't been "too good for too long" like you say for nothing! Luck is always involved, of course, but maintaining like you have tells the tale. I did very well in NFL last year, better than some that are considered tops here, but just like you, am worried that as soon as I begin to post my picks this year, it will all fall apart! I dont want to be in Big Lou's situation, knowing that you are a solid NFL capper and know the game, but a bit of bad luck gets you "shots" and "criticism" from many!
Cecil, I agree with your opinion. But I use the public's opinion as just one of many different angles, and I like to know who the public is on so I can pay special attention to the OPPOSITE side.
Hache, if you are not bashed at least once during the football season you will be the first, LOL.
valdosta
08-02-2003, 08:55 PM
Anyone who "fades" thereself is imcompetant and shouldn't be gambling in the first place!!
Have a database with the prices of different books at different times, keep the data of the tipsters, etc., etc.!!!!!
You will be a winner!
There is quite a bit of logic in Shrinks story, but to just say that one should fade others is not enough.
Patrick McIrish
08-03-2003, 02:56 AM
Wake me up when we have a topic on how below average gamblers can beat bookmakers..... http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_frown.gif
The General
08-03-2003, 07:54 AM
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Patrick McIrish:
Wake me up when we have a topic on how _below_ average gamblers can beat bookmakers..... http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_frown.gif<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
http://www.therx.com/forum/grem/applaudit.gif
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