How does one become a

[Dante]

How does one learn to see the "value" in a line. are there sites to go things to look for??

[Patrick McIrish]

Value in a line? Here's a generic example. Let's say you and your brother race mountain bikes and over the last 5 years you beat him 2/3rds of the time. If today he wakes up and says I will bet you even money ($100 to $100) I beat you than there is "value" in betting on Dante. You won't win every time as he wins 1/3 of the time but in the long run it is a money maker to bet on you at that price. It is fair to say there is positive expectation for you to make a bet. The reason is if you could race him over and over again each time taking even money and the results staying the same there is plenty of value in that line. If he says I need odds since you are better than me, I will put up $100 and you put up $200 than the value of betting on you has disappeared. Value can mean lots of things actually but finding the better team and betting on them does not constitute value. In fact usually it is just the opposite when the prices are figured in.

PS - stay tuned to SQUARE TALK for more discussion on this. http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

[SuperWimp]

Never pick the worse line.

Betting is such that you can have accounts in several books and shop for the best line. If there are two lines that are slightly different the sharp player will never play the worse one. If you intend to do this professionally or at least seriously having DonBest is necesary.

Don't chase moves.

If you are watching the screen and aline moves don't bet it automatically. We call those movers or steam players. 90% of them are suckers that lose over the long run.

Never buy points.

If you buy points you bring your necessary winning percentage to break even on straight bets from 55% to 60%. You need to hit 61% of your picks before you make a cent if you buy points. The ½ usually doesn't even make a difference. Shop around until you find the line you like.

Never hook up.

If you like a line bet it. If you like two lines bet them. Separately. If you start playing parlays, teasers, etc. you will only lose. There is a reason those are offered, the suckers love them.

Play injuries.

A star player is out? Play against that team, especially in Basketball where the individuals make a greater difference. Obvious but you'd be amazed at how many chumps out there don't even do that.

Bet early and don't be greedy.

If you placed your bet early you are following your opinion on wether the handicappers were wrong. Remember, humans handicap the games and set the line, not all-knowing beings. When you bet you are saying "I think they were wrong in this direction". If a lot of people think the same as you then the line will move in your direction. If the move is big enough bet the other side. DON'T BE GREEDY and hit your bet again. If you play a middle that is wide enough (1½ points at least, hopefully more) you will have risked $10 (the juice on a $100 bet) to win $200. All you need is to hit one out of 20 middles to break even. This works particularly well in college football and basketball, those lines move a lot. Having accounts in CRIS and/or OLYMPIC is useful for this because they are among the first to post the lines. NFL is particularly bad for this as the lines don't move that much.

Follow your streak.

Don't ask me why, but people win and lose in streaks. If you are hitting bet more (within reason, obvioulsy), if you are losing bet less. the one thing you must remember is to never bet to get out of the hole. Let me repeat that: NEVER BET TO GET OUT OF A HOLE!. If you had loses for the week just take them. Don't send good money chasing bad.

[Dante]

thanks guys...superwimp..solid advise

[raiders72001]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Follow your streak.

Don't ask me why, but people win and lose in streaks. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

People win in streaks because the human element is involved in sports gambling. Unlike craps where the odds are always the same humans feel different every day. We are affected by emotional and psychological events. When you get hot ride the streak. If you are cold cut down on your bets.

[-Slim-]

http://www.kinkythoughts.org/sharpies/sharpie.png

[pilar]

http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

[Railbird]

There is diffrent levels of sharp.

[-Slim-]

hey wideawake!

[Walk of Life]

SuperWimp:

Good post. I particularly agree about betting a team with reported injuries in hoops. One man out (let's say Iverson for the 6ers) and the line will be out of orbit. If you can anticipate the report; that means if through research you can find about the injury report before it's official, you'll be betting pure value. I would disagree with one of your points though:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Follow your streak.

Don't ask me why, but people win and lose in streaks. If you are hitting bet more (within reason, obvioulsy), if you are losing bet less. the one thing you must remember is to never bet to get out of the hole. Let me repeat that: NEVER BET TO GET OUT OF A HOLE!. If you had loses for the week just take them. Don't send good money chasing bad. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I have heard this before from people I respect a lot. And it might seem to work for them. But if you're giving a piece of advise, the best advise you can give is:

Bet FLAT. Having the discipline to do so, will decrease your exposure in the long run. It will eventually allow you to dettach from highly emotional moments, and make a good bet. It creates consistency.

Bet flat. Bet straight. Bet value.

Just my .02

[EveryGamblersDream]

Seriously my best advice is to not even worry about the title of sharp & just pick up things here & there from people you respect & start to trust your own judgement which is much different then betting with your heart.

[pilar]

Hey Slim! Long time no see! http://theprescription.infopop.net/infopop/emoticons/icon_razz.gif

[SuperWimp]

Hey Walk.

I agree that being flat can work for a lot of people because it instills gambling discipline that may otherwise not be there. If there were no junkies then there would be no business. Following your streak has worked very well for long-time players. Hard to do, especially deciding when you are on a streak and when you are just fluking a few.

Since my post I have thought of one other piece of advice for new gamblers:

Set a limit.

How much are you hoping to win? How much money would be "Enough". Everybody knows a smart person walks away while ahead, but you have to know how much you consider "ahead". A hundred? A thousand? Ten thousand? Reach this and then walk away. If you continue to bet without end odds are you WILL lose. Over 4 billion dollars in transactions a year say that the house wins in the long run. That's a mighty powerfull argument.

Likewise, set a LOSING limit. How much can you lose before it is enough? $10 000, $1000, $100? How much can you afford to lose? Same as with your win limit, once you reach then just walk away, hopefully learn a lesson. To do this you must keep track of your history of success betting. Not just a week, but lifetime. Most bookies live off of the short term memory of their players.

"How much did you loose?"

"Just a couple hundred of bucks, not much."

If you look at the lifetime figure of this player he could be down $20,000 over the past five years a "couple hundred" at a time.

Think about it... most players lose consitently, but still they have limits on how much they can bet per week. Is this because bookies are worried about losing too much money? Winning too much!?! What about the guys with a $500 cap? A bookie can't afford to loose $500? The reason the limits are there is to restrict how much a player can lose in a short period of time.

If I owe you $1000 then I have a problem. If I owe you $100,000 then YOU have a problem. Search me, I don't have it, won't have it and can't think of a way of gettin it.

Be smart, the house has the odds of winning. You can walk away with money if you do the right things, but you must learn to walk away.

[docdekay]

Where is Terrel Owens when you need him?

[-Slim-]

On the ESPN hot seat the other day, Terrell promised to bring out several other celebrations this coming year doc...

Just stay tuned...

[Dante]

Jesus slim post once every few YEARS at least my man http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

[SuperWimp]

Jesus Dante use punctuation commas and periods were invented for a reason so sentences don't run into each other without making sense see what I mean because we can't guess what you are thinking


LOL

[Dante]

let me re-read your post super..one sec http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

[-Slim-]

Dante, my man, Im trying to post, I feel like a new man... :P It must be the ginseng im drinking for energy or the pistaccho nuts Im eating right now...not sure what but Imapostinglikecrazy

[-Slim-]

Unclebutternuts, here I come http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gifhttp://www.realnewscentral.com/images/Owens.JPG

[Dante]

How is katwomen Slim??? she is doing well???

[-Slim-]

yup, already answered over in la la land :P

[Banned4Life]

Down here at the Jersey Shore, "Sharpie" is used as a slang term for Syrian Jews.

[greg]

dedication, homework, experience and studying what other sharp guys write. capping can be a full time job the web offers sats, webpages, newspapers then afteryou line a game you have to shop around after all that you find out if you can beat the man then you decide what you need to wager to make it worthwhile. Parlays with better odds can pay off better then straights if you can find 3 find enough STRONG plays to work with which seems to get tougher do do the last few years.

[Lupux]

great post superwimp, I print it and laminate it for further streaks http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_rolleyes.gif

[buckeye2]

Learn the math!

"Never buy points.

If you buy points you bring your necessary winning percentage to break even on straight bets from 55% to 60%. You need to hit 61% of your picks before you make a cent if you buy points. The ½ usually doesn't even make a difference. Shop around until you find the line you like."

Break even on straight bets of -110 is 52.38%(11/21), not 55%. The above post gets the vig ( 4.55% ) confused with the break-even. So buying a hook for 10 cent ups the break-even to 54.55%(12/22), far from 60%.

For the most part, buying points in the NFL is a bad move, but there are some "sweet spot" lines around key numbers where it isn't so dumb. In general it is but not 100%.

GL2ALL

[Lou Diamond]

To become "sharp"?

8 years of the schooling from 'Hard Knocks' (without vacations) and about enough money to cover 4 years at Harvard.

[eric dixon]

SW, Very saliant points and points I have been following for years, except the injuries. It a way to stay in this game for the long haul.

[Sugarbear]

Never pick the worse line.

Betting is such that you can have accounts in several books and shop for the best line. If there are two lines that are slightly different the sharp player will never play the worse one. If you intend to do this professionally or at least seriously having DonBest is necesary.

Don't chase moves.

If you are watching the screen and aline moves don't bet it automatically. We call those movers or steam players. 90% of them are suckers that lose over the long run.

Never buy points.

If you buy points you bring your necessary winning percentage to break even on straight bets from 55% to 60%. You need to hit 61% of your picks before you make a cent if you buy points. The ½ usually doesn't even make a difference. Shop around until you find the line you like.

Never hook up.

If you like a line bet it. If you like two lines bet them. Separately. If you start playing parlays, teasers, etc. you will only lose. There is a reason those are offered, the suckers love them.

Play injuries.

A star player is out? Play against that team, especially in Basketball where the individuals make a greater difference. Obvious but you'd be amazed at how many chumps out there don't even do that.

Bet early and don't be greedy.

If you placed your bet early you are following your opinion on wether the handicappers were wrong. Remember, humans handicap the games and set the line, not all-knowing beings. When you bet you are saying "I think they were wrong in this direction". If a lot of people think the same as you then the line will move in your direction. If the move is big enough bet the other side. DON'T BE GREEDY and hit your bet again. If you play a middle that is wide enough (1½ points at least, hopefully more) you will have risked $10 (the juice on a $100 bet) to win $200. All you need is to hit one out of 20 middles to break even. This works particularly well in college football and basketball, those lines move a lot. Having accounts in CRIS and/or OLYMPIC is useful for this because they are among the first to post the lines. NFL is particularly bad for this as the lines don't move that much.

Follow your streak.

Don't ask me why, but people win and lose in streaks. If you are hitting bet more (within reason, obvioulsy), if you are losing bet less. the one thing you must remember is to never bet to get out of the hole. Let me repeat that: NEVER BET TO GET OUT OF A HOLE!. If you had loses for the week just take them. Don't send good money chasing bad.





Excellent advice and still as true today as when it was first written and will be in the future.

[Sugarbear]

Hey Walk.

I agree that being flat can work for a lot of people because it instills gambling discipline that may otherwise not be there. If there were no junkies then there would be no business. Following your streak has worked very well for long-time players. Hard to do, especially deciding when you are on a streak and when you are just fluking a few.

Since my post I have thought of one other piece of advice for new gamblers:

Set a limit.

How much are you hoping to win? How much money would be "Enough". Everybody knows a smart person walks away while ahead, but you have to know how much you consider "ahead". A hundred? A thousand? Ten thousand? Reach this and then walk away. If you continue to bet without end odds are you WILL lose. Over 4 billion dollars in transactions a year say that the house wins in the long run. That's a mighty powerfull argument.

Likewise, set a LOSING limit. How much can you lose before it is enough? $10 000, $1000, $100? How much can you afford to lose? Same as with your win limit, once you reach then just walk away, hopefully learn a lesson. To do this you must keep track of your history of success betting. Not just a week, but lifetime. Most bookies live off of the short term memory of their players.

"How much did you loose?"

"Just a couple hundred of bucks, not much."

If you look at the lifetime figure of this player he could be down $20,000 over the past five years a "couple hundred" at a time.

Think about it... most players lose consitently, but still they have limits on how much they can bet per week. Is this because bookies are worried about losing too much money? Winning too much!?! What about the guys with a $500 cap? A bookie can't afford to loose $500? The reason the limits are there is to restrict how much a player can lose in a short period of time.

If I owe you $1000 then I have a problem. If I owe you $100,000 then YOU have a problem. Search me, I don't have it, won't have it and can't think of a way of gettin it.

Be smart, the house has the odds of winning. You can walk away with money if you do the right things, but you must learn to walk away.




This could very well be the best piece of advice anyone can follow betting this stuff. Excellent advice.

[Dawoofdaddy]

Whats sharp about betting vs. teams with injuries?

If anything, bettors should probably bet the teams with a known injury, not bet vs.

Especially NBA.

NFL if buying onto or off key # and juice isnt too bad, it seems like the thing to do.

I dont believe NEVER buying points is solid advice.

[Mr J]

Excellent advice and still as true today as when it was first written and will be in the future.

There is some terrible advice there.

Never Buy Points

Rubbish. Buying points for key numbers can be +ev.

Play injuries

Silly thing to generalize. The public can overcompensate.

Bet early and don't be greedy

I've got a better suggestion: Study line movement. Early numbers aren't always the best.

Follow your streak

This is ridiculous. Bet more when you are 'hot' and bet less when you are not??

[Dante]

very good advise in this thread..from LONG ago...I can post a good thread now and then :grandmais

[Fishhead]

Will be honest with you..........very hard to become an EXTREME sharpie without living on the streets of Vegas.

Don't get me wrong, there are MANY sharps that have never even set foot in the state of Nevada, but living in Vegas is a HUGE advantage and education for the all-around gambler.

[ha85]

"Follow your streak"

Not good advice...anyone who is "sharp" will know that when losing streaks come, it only creates more value...

"Don't chase moves.

If you are watching the screen and aline moves don't bet it automatically. We call those movers or steam players. 90% of them are suckers that lose over the long run."

another bad piece of advice, if you can get a scalp or middle later, bet the freaking line move...everyone knows that...

[ha85]

there are a lot of faults in that adivce given, but im not going to tell you the rest :puppy: :money8:

[El Iguana]

Here's my little tidbit:

Don't bet unders in football based solely on impending bad weather.

For every 10 times everyone gets all riled up about "high winds" or "thunderstorms," the weather actually affects the score maybe once. The truth is, bad weather creates as many scoring opportunities as it prevents, i.e. turnovers, muffed punts, defenders slipping, etc.

Cappers feel "sharp" when they catch an early weather report, but 9 times out of 10 it makes no difference IMHO. As is typical with weather forecasting, often the bad weather never even comes!

[Coach LT]

Never buy points is crazy advice! I will NEVER NEVER lay -71/2 or take +61/2 ! LT:monsters-

[Sugarbear]

This is good. I thought there might be some dissent but the overall tone of the post is correct.


All please remeber some of these old post were directed at the true rec crowd that exist here. Some of the counter points while good is not something a true square vs a sharpare should really consider.

I am big on not buying points for the true square for the exact reasons SW said plus it teaches bad habits and breeds overconfidence in the square bettor.


One of the problems in the fourms today is that most forget that there is a crowd right below us that aren't up to speed with the moves or lingo of the culture and should stay with the basics at all times.

[tbonestk]

One of the problems in the fourms today is that most forget that there is a crowd right below us that aren't up to speed with the moves or lingo of the culture and should stay with the basics at all times.

How do you interpret line moves on Totals, my locals give out lines 1hr before kickoffs. Of course real lines are dynamic, please give some examples on reading the sharp moves vs square moves.

[Fishhead]

Never buy points is crazy advice! I will NEVER NEVER lay -71/2 or take +61/2 ! LT:monsters-


NEVER take +6.5 in the NFL if one can buy to +7 for 10 cents or less...................ABSOLUTELY 100% CORRECT!

[parlayin]

when can you buy on or off 7 for 10 cents OR LESS???

[Dubpoet]

Learn the other sports on the card

Murray -1600 free money starts in 2 minutes

[RobFunk]

:uzi: