SQUARE TALK - How to win at sportsbetting......

[Patrick McIrish]

The disclaimer I will put on this is I am not the voice of authority on this. Not even going to pretend to be anything close. I will pass on some real life experiences of mine and more importantly hope others sharper than I will contribute. When thinking of the name who better to host SQUARE TALK than Mr Square himself. That's me Patrick McIrish. Part of learning in life is being humble enough to admit you don't already have all the answers. Got a dozen of the smartest men in the world who already post here, this is for us who are secure enough to admit we can improve. There's a saying one thing a man MUST know before he can teach his dog tricks is more than the dog. LOL. Not sure I know more than most here so keep that in mind. If we help one person learn some stuff it will be worth it plus I can tell Shrink I was busy working. The fact I love this stuff anyway is besides the point. Coming off my play losing 9-0 last night it seemed like the time was right for SQUARE TALK to get off the ground......


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In my opinion winning at sportsbetting is a lot like a football team as it evolves. I live in Tampa and in 1976 when the Bucs entered the NFL we went 0-26 in our first two seasons before winning a game, an NFL record. This year we won the Super Bowl. As you progress in sportsbetting you will notice changes in the way you think, just like a team does. They claim a team goes through 3 steps on it's way to being a proven winner. Again using the Bucs for example, when they entered the league they were going through step #1 which is hoping you can win. When you line up Sunday you have good intentions and a desire to win. Step #2 comes about when you evolve to the point where the team starts to thing we CAN win. No more hoping, the team works hard in practice and they feel they can win when they flip the coin every week. Finally step #3 is when a team EXPECTS to win. Doesn't seem like a big difference but when you expect to win versus thinking you can win it is night and day. We've all bet on teams and you just feel they will not lose this game. I sat in the Old Sombrero as Berman calls it and if the Bucs were up 21-0 at halftime you still just did not believe they would win. Nowadays if they are down 21-0 at halftime you still expect them to win. More importantly the same thoughts of either expecting to win or wondering if we would win were in those locker rooms. In both instances I would guess it showed on the field as well.


How does this correspond to sportsbetting? Not sure yet but trying to make up something. LOL. No the point here is first to win at anything you have to be honest with yourself. Some people will NEVER win betting sports. The reason for it is as varied as the chicks Dennis Rodman dates. Some don't win because they don't want to. Sure he'd like to win but he's calling his bookie to lay half a yard on his favorite team to win on a line he got out of the newspaper. Others want to win but they don't want to put the time or effort in to learn how. Still others would put the time in if they knew what they were suppossed to be doing in trying to learn. And yet still some others just want action. They are only betting because the tracks are closed, the on-line lottery is full or the midget throwing over in Australia has been suspended for a few days. They want ACTION! Having that action is much more important than anything else. As I said, lots of reasons people don't win.



For our first think tank I want to talk on the part about getting your bet down. Most wiseguys will tell you there is nothing more important in betting sports THAN PLAYING AT THE BEST NUMBER! It's a very good rule to get used to when conducting your business. Say I like the Bucs -6 but earlier it was -4, if I missed the price I need I pass on the game. The value has disappeared. If I have to choose between picking the best handicapper in the world and taking the worst number, or taking the best number with Beaner doing the handicapping than I go with Beaner. It is that important. In no real ogranized manner here are some suggestions for us squares.....


Nothing I hear more from a friend of mine than what's the big deal on the price? This guy makes 50 wagers a week but only has one out. Doesn't want another one either. I beg him to at least add a couple more outs but he just doesn't see it. I have shown him where a difference can be a 1/2 point to 2 points but it's no big deal to him. If you are going to win it has to be a big deal. Frankly I think the amount of outs is overrated in my view. Often people wear it as a badge of honor. "Hell I've got 83 outs I use, the wife carries another 20 if I need them". Unless you are running a professional scalp and middle team you don't need that many. You do need a bare minumum of 4 or 5 outs though. If you can't afford it or don't recognize why you need them than go find the naked picture or hangman thread and leave us alone here. The truth is though if you are playing with this few they have to be books who hang different numbers. No need in having a Skybook account and a Rio account if they hang the exact same prices. You need books who will have the greatest variance you can find on games. The idea being whichever side you are on you will have a shot at the best number. So a couple of good books who like dogs and a couple who like chalk would be a good start. If you don't know which books are which feel free to ask me, it changes depending on the sport. I also recommend keeping locals if you have any, I will get more into this down the road but they can be a nice ace in the hole.


I also think you need to start learning to set prices on the games too. Before you even look at the overnights for the lines you should practice setting your own lines. Nothing will teach you quicker what goes into the lines than trying to set your own. The numbers are set mostly for the books in order to attempt to get balanced action. Does not always mean they agree with the lines they hang necessarily. I'm just making this up (it may or may not be true) but if the public as a rule puts too much emphasis on a star's injury the pro's who set the openers may take that into account. Let's say Peyton Manning is out. With Peyton the line may be Colts -4, without him they may change it to Colts -1. In reality the line should only be -3 or so but if the public has a history of overreacting to a star's injury the guys who set the lines already know this. Be aware of the role injuries play in the lines. Also they may know the public loves to bet the Yankees, Duke, Cowboys etc... so they shade the lines against them. These aren't great examples but the point is in order to beat the lines you have to understand where they are coming from and how they are set. What all goes into them? How can you recognize value if you have no idea what something is worth? How can someone have an opinion on totals in baseball if they do not know what 7, 8 or 9 is worth? How often do these numbers hit and how many cents is half a run worth for example? Which is better 8.5 over -120 or 9 over +110? In poker one of the first things in Hold 'em we learned was get used to putting your opponent on a hand. Tough to play your hand and get any long term results if you have no idea what the other guy has. Practice it and it becomes second nature even if you have to back up in the hand to make an educated guess. "He limped in from early position yet he check raised the flop etc....." Does no good at all to see Pinnacle has the Twins at -180 if you don't have any idea where the number should be.


I will stop now and see if anyone else can add to what we have talked about so far or correct me if need be. Again I want to be perfectly clear that I work here so I'd like to have these talks but sometimes it comes across as me pretending to be some sort of wiseguy. I am just here trying to learn like everyone else. To me I have went through similar steps as I mentioned above in betting. I started out hoping I could win. I won't use the NFL because that is clearly my weakest sport and I'm fooling no one other than myself if I don't understand I have to work at this game. In baseball I can usually grind out a small winner for the season but it took a while to get here. I know of not one long term gambler who has not ever been busted. Not one! When younger I was busted more than a "Virgins Gone Bad" 3 pack special at the porn store. I started having a little success in baseball and began reading everything I could get my hands on. I opened up with a few more outs and began to study the game. Still wasn't really winning but slowly the attitude came that I felt I CAN win at this sport. Still I made stupid mistakes. I'd have no money management or discipline. I'd spend hours capping a game and if I lost it try and double up on the late game to get even. Or if I had money in my accounts or a positive balance than I could hardly stand to let it sit there until my next play, I wanted to get it in action. Mistake after mistake. Eventually I started to realize what it takes to win in baseball. I mentioned some of them above. More than one out where I can shop for the best lines. Some sort of money management and a basic understanding of what the lines and numbers represent. Slowly I began to EXPECT to win. While to this day I hate to lose I learned a bad night didn't discourage me off the long term plan. A night in sportsbetting is like one hand in poker, that's it. If you are making the value plays you will win long term. I don't know the disparity on how long a winner can lose or a loser can win but don't let that fool you, it can last a while. If you are making plays and taking the worst of it you will go busted eventually. I have played poker with people who said there is no way in this lifetime that man will ever go broke. If you are playing poker incorrectly, spending time at the crap table, playing slot machines with negative expectation or any of a number of things you will lose your bankroll eventually. The only variables are how often you take the worst of it, how big you are playing and how big your bankroll was when you started. There is no cheating in this game, you are only fooling yourself. If you are a loser at these games and taking the worst of it the only question is if you will live long enough to go busted. It's coming. Anyway thanks for listening men. If anyone likes this or gets anything out of it I will make it a regular thing. If not you won't hurt my feelings, they've toughened me up around here. Peace.

[This message was edited by Patrick McIrish on June 30, 2003 at 11:21 PM.]

[blue edwards]

nice post paddy. who are the books with the biggest differentials for football?

[BEANTOWNJIM]

SHRINK THIS KID IS GONE HE JUST WROTE A 3 PAGE REPORT OF SH-T I DIDNT UNDERSTAND ONETHING HE SAID MCPUPPET WERE YOU DRINKING TONIGHT.I HAVE BEEN GAMBLING 25 YEARS AND IN THE OLD DAYS I WAS ONE OF THE BEST HANDICAPPERS AROUND I ONCE KILLED A BOOKIE TRUE STORY I BET A HORSE 100 WIN AND PLACE THE HORSE WENT OFF 60-1 8500 DOLLARS I CALLED HIM THE NEXT DAY AND HIS WIFE SAID HE PASSED ON.I GOT MY BOSTON GLOBE AND SURE ENOUGH THERE WAS (PHIL THE BARBER) DIED OF NATURAL CAUSES I DIDNT GET THE FULL AMOUNT AFTER PHIL DIED HIS OFFICE ONLY PAYS 25 TO 1 BUT I DID GET PAID MAN THIS GUY PHIL WAS A STAND UP GUY.BOYS MY POINT IS I WAS GOOD BACK BEFORE ALL THIS LINE MOVE BULLSHIT AND COMPUTERS.THESE FORUMS HAVE F-CKED ME UP BELIEVE ME BOYS READING ALL THESE LINES AND WISE GUY MOVES IS THE BIGGEST CROCK OF SH-T AMD HAS REALLY SCREWED ME UP.I HAVE BEEN GETTING KILLED THIS YEAR BECAUSE AN OFFSHORE BOOK WILL HAVE A BASEBALL GAME -135 UNDER 9 I HAVE BEEN BETTING THE UNDER 9 WITH MY LOCAL GUY -110 FIGURING THE SPORTSBOOKS KNOW SOMETHING AND HAVE BEEN LOSING LIKE 70% OF MY PLAYS.IF I WASNT ADDICTED TO BULLSHITTING WITH YOU NIT WITS I WOULD THROW AWAY MY COMPUTER AND GOT BACK TO JUST BETTING THE GAMES AND F-CK READING THE LINES. http://www.therx.com/forum/grem/fuck2.gif

[MrKennedy]

Jesus H !

you expect people to read all that? I skimmed and even then it was way too much.

but thats just me..

Mr Negative http://therx.infopop.cc/infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

[Angelle]

http://theprescription.infopop.net/infopop/emoticons/icon_razz.gif
I didn't read the whole thing either..
I hope there isn't a test..

But what I got from skimming it it was good Pat. GOOD JOB!

[MrKennedy]

and by the way..squares do not lose track of 713 dollars, in my opinion.. but then again neither should sharps.

I think you are being humble.

[sfeiner]

"If I have to choose between picking the best handicapper in the world and taking the worst number, or taking the best number with Beaner doing the handicapping than I go with Beaner. It is that important."

you could increase your win % by not making this wager at all. discipline is the ONLY KEY to winning at this game. millions of good handicappers, hundreds of good line chasers and only a handful of winners. why? discipline thats why guys like B.W. play the numbers games, they to dont have the willpower to wait for a winner and then hang your hat on it. you need action every night? you will lose, no ifs ands or buts. give me a well handicapped situation at a good number and then we'll talk.anything less you can take it elsewhere cause it dont help me at all.

as far as progressing in knowledge, i grew up with some old timers who tried to save me alot of grief. i find today that if i had listened to their advice from day 1 i'd be way ahead of where i'm at today. i read a post today where someone was touting a great angle on a game. a response said "i saw that but i cant go against a hot team".. i have a feeling i know which of those two guys has the higher win %.

just as not everyone can be a doctor , not everyone can be a sportsbettor. not for a living anyway. if you sell hotdogs on the weekend does that make you a chef? admit what you are and play accordingly.

great thread patrick they should give you a job here.

[Patrick McIrish]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by MrKennedy:
Jesus H !

you expect people to read all that? I skimmed and even then it was way too much.

but thats just me..

Mr Negative http://therx.infopop.cc/infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


LOL, I'll put chapters on it next time. http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

Thanks guys for the feeback already, may have some more to add once the crowd wakes back up. http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_redface.gif

[THE SHRINK]

This is a really GOOD thread and I hope that gamblers take the time to read all the "pearls" that Patrick snuck inside... http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

If he is a square, then I am Santa Claus!

Seriously, I would like to add that the INJURY portion of Patrick's post got my attention...

It amazes me how many squares will call me up during Football Season and ask me if I knew that Rich Gannon was "out" for the Raiders (as an example), and that "The Rams plus 6 is a Steal!"

Forget it!

It is my opinion that sometimes, bookmakers tend to "OVERCOMPENSATE" when a star player is out for a particular team.

They do this knowing full well that the "SQUARES" will be rushing to bet the opposite side of the game involving the injury to the star player..

Another factor to consider when betting on injury games is that quite often the team will bounce back and play even better when their star goes down...

Injuries are as important to handicapping as water is to human beings...

Being FULLY aware of your teams' overall health before betting on them is paramount to being successful at sports betting...

So my addition to the square talk is to have as much UPDATED injury information available to you as possible...

With today's technology and primarily the internet, this shouldn't be hard to do...

Good luck to all,

THE SHRINK

[dogball]

Great post
Good read for newbies or old timers
Thanks

[BEANTOWNJIM]

SHRINK DO YOU EVER SAY A BAD THING ABOUT PATRICK MCPUPPET FINE HE IS ON YOUR PAYROLL BUT DONT PLAY US FOR FOOLS AND TELL US MCPUPPET'S ARTICLE WAS INTERESTING.GUYS HAVE BEEN SPECULATING ON INJURIES FOR 50 YEARS ITS NO SECRET SHRINK 1 OR 2 INJURIES DOESNT CHANGE A GAME THAT IS WHY IN THE OLD DAYS IF A STARTING QB WASNT PLAY THE GAME WOULD BE OFF THE BOARD END OF DISCUSSION THIS IS WHY THE OLD DAYS WERE BETTER.TO MANY LOSERS READ INTO AN OFFSHORE SPORTSBOOKS MOVE AND GET BURNED STAY WITH YOUR OWN CHOICES FROM WATCHING THE GAMES AND DONT BE SWAYED BY JOE PUBLIC.

SHRINK HOW COME YOUR UP MCPUPPETS ARSE LATELY IS HE THREATENING TO GO BACK TO MAJORS PLACE CUT THE SH-T ITS TO OBVIOUS YOU AND PATRICK ARE A LITTLE TO KISSY KISSY FOR ME.OH PATRICK YOUR GREAT I LOVED THAT BOOK YOU JUST WROTE I LOVE YOU PATRICK YOUR BETTER THAN BUTTERNUTTS PATRICK CAN I GO GET YOU SOME WATER JESUS CHRIST SHRINK HE IS UNDER CONTRACT LIGHTEN UP WILL YOU PAL ITS REALLY STARTING TO BUG ME http://www.therx.com/forum/grem/1034535174.gif

[lakerfan]

Another great post. This and the record keeping post are hopefully the beginning of a series. For a square like myself, being able to read detail information from a positive expectation capper such as McIrish is a treat.

[MrKennedy]

my addition to square talk is this.. whenever you see a line and your reaction is oh my god this is a gift..

go the other way.

[BEANTOWNJIM]

THE BEST WAY TO WIN IS FIND FRIENDS LIKE MINE AND GO THE OTHER WAY I USED TO HOLD GUYS PLAYS WHO I KNEW WERE BORN LOSERS THEY ARE OUT THERE YOU JUST HAVE TO REACH OUT AND FIND THEM.EVERYBODY KNOWS A SUCKER IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OR THERE LOCAL TAVERN WHO IS A DEADBEAT GAMBLER AND YOU JUST KNOW HE IS WALKING AROUND WITH A CLOUD OVER HIS HEAD BUT LIKES TO BET FOOTBALL I LOVE TALKING TO THESE GUYS THEY ARE THE ONES YOU LEARN FROM.YOU JUST TAKE THE OPPOSITE OF WHOEVER THEY BET AND I WILL GAURENTEE YOU COME OUT AHEAD.F-CK THE GOLD SHEET,F-CK THE LINE MOVES,F-CK PATRICK MCPUPPETS BULLSHIT JUST FIND THAT CERTAIN SUCKER IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD OR DENNIS THE DUNCE AND GO THE OTHER WAY.THIS IS YOUR BEST CHANCE OF WINNING.I KNOW OF A BOOKIE WHO JUST PLAYS THE OTHER SIDE OF A GUYS ACTION AT ANOTHER SHOP THIS IS HOW CERTAIN THE GUY WILL LOSE.

[THE SHRINK]

Beantown,

You are on to something...

SERIOUSLY...

Something I love to tell friends of mine who love to gamble, but don't have time to handicap is the following...

Ask 5 people who they like on a football game, and whenever 4 out of 5 say take the Steelers, bet the opposite team!

THE SHRINK

[Fishhead]

SHRINKWRAP- I have purchased a home and fine automobiles with only that advice. Lost it all back to the femdoms, but what the heck. http://www.therx.com/forum/grem/1041579183.gif

[Fishhead]

By the way, NICE POST McIRICH. Shoot McIRICH, I may be playing your football picks this year at the rate your learning. Your on an accelerated learning curve sir. I forget something different that is important everyday, and in a few years will be back to SQUARE ONE. I need to curtail my fixation with women. Will never happen unfortunately. http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_frown.gif

[docdekay]

".I HAVE BEEN GETTING KILLED THIS YEAR BECAUSE AN OFFSHORE BOOK WILL HAVE A BASEBALL GAME -135 UNDER 9 I HAVE BEEN BETTING THE UNDER 9 WITH MY LOCAL GUY -110 "

Then scalp the number, moron. This way you wont have worry about picking anything except the trash.

[soccerbob]

Patrick- I enjoyed that. You had some really good advice in there. The anecdotes mixed in there made for a good read.


sfeiner- I know what you were trying to say in the first part of your post. The best way to increase your win % is to pass on those iffy plays that just don't feel right. Having that weird feeling about a game and passing it is just as important as playing a game you really like.


Beantownjim- I like reading your posts. I'm not trying to break your balls but when you do the entire post in capital letters, it's tough to read and looks pretty stupid.

[JackDee]

I haven't read pat's lengthy article yet, but i sure will, but i got to side with beaner here, if you cant pick the right side of the bet, be it total or, well, side, then fvck the number, the only thing a beaner and a good number can get you is something like a +close to nothing in the end, the juice being the killer that it is.

[assassin]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by THE SHRINK:

Ask 5 people who they like on a football game, and whenever 4 out of 5 say take the Steelers, bet the opposite team!

THE SHRINK<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

That sounds like "trendy" wayne root speak. Does Shrink=Wayne Root
We'll see in Vegas.

[THE SHRINK]

assassin,

I used to like Wayne Root, but please don't hold that against me...

I was very young back then... http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

[assassin]

Used to love him on those early monring "tout" shows.
Hey, I'd trade places with him. He clearly has optimized the concept of using other peoples money to leverage his return. ROI unlimited when you don't put up any capital.

Us Ivy guys have got to stick together.

I does miss BUddy Ryan on the tout shows. Coach was hillarious.

[jerseymike111]

Two years ago i was one of those players you had over ten open accts.I was making more money for netteller than myself[tranfer to -tranfer from].Now even in football i only keep open three or four accts and one local that i have been dealing with for over twenty years.He gives out a nice bonus,a case of 12 year old jonny walker every christmas.
Question for you sir or anyone else,Can you name two books that lean heavy towards the favs and two books that lean heavy towards the dogs?I am talking about baseball.
Books I use now are.pinnacle,hollywood,skybook and five dimes.I just closed my acct with cbs.
Thanks

[jwunderdog]

Docdekay,
".I HAVE BEEN GETTING KILLED THIS YEAR BECAUSE AN OFFSHORE BOOK WILL HAVE A BASEBALL GAME -135 UNDER 9 I HAVE BEEN BETTING THE UNDER 9 WITH MY LOCAL GUY -110 "

Then scalp the number, moron. This way you wont have worry about picking anything except the trash.

LMFAO

[jjgold]

Most guys lose now because of all the info available, too much. Everyone is over handicapping now. I used to win just by looking at the newspaer and betting with one out period. If everyone did this there would be more winners.

There are too many bet offers now (like 10 per game) and you cannot win. The old days is what we should go back to,totals only on tv games and staright bets.

None of this fukkin bullshit under 9 -140. Price gouging!!!!

Locals deal -110 period, old school bookmaking, not like today scared fukkin punks screwing hookers and boozing all our post up money.

We are suckers!!!!

[jjgold]

Here is how you win boys, have one out with low juice and bet a few straight plays a week only and fuk the gimmick bets (qts, halves,ect) and fuk the stats. Bet on feel like real men do and you will be right in the game. Fuk the best number, 15 books, 5 stat services, ect it means nothing.

Get back to old school betting, throw the computers away the have buried most of us.

[dimeplayersonly]

we are all squares to some degree.......

i know plenty of "sharps" on the sports...but get them around a racetrack and they turn in to pure sucker......ive seen scalpers and middlers lose control at the dice table........

think your bookie knows all when it comes to gambling?? sit him down at the poker table....

if all else fails........ a pretty lady usually does the trick..........lol

[punter puppy]

Patrick, thanks a bunch. I enjoyed your post, particularly your insight on some of the psychological aspects of sports betting.

You touched on a lot of topics, many of which could be major threads of their own. Being so new I have little of value to offer, but I would really enjoy seeing some of these topics explored in more detail (for the benefit of us newbies).

-punter puppy

[altice]

Great post Pat. These types of posts should be bumped up every now and then so we can review them and actually see them over the countless vanity posts and useless threads that are posted in offshore.

[FatFrank]

Best advice I've ever heard or read:

"Winning at gambling is not a game against you and the casino/book, but a game against you and yourself."

If I have to explain... Forgitaboutit http://therx.infopop.cc/infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

[tryingtofade]

Good thread, Patrick. A great follow up would be a step by step walkthrough of how you take a matchup and convert it into a moneyline.

[bag of tricks]

Thanks for the read old man.

[Sodium Pentethol V]

There will always be a sizable contingent advising take the best number,

this is from folks that bet mainstream sports,
the ability to generate an accurate estimate is the most important facet of sports gambling, then any number that is better than your estimate is a bet.

the post above about BW is wrong of course, the guy is a degenerate thru and thru, but has the best resources to create the best estimates and doesn't always just bet the best number, may bet the best number and continue betting until the spread reaches his estimates.

If I had to give a newbie one piece of advice it would be that if they happen to come up with a dog or an under, wait till gametime and bet twice as much as if you liked the chalk or over.

I am not minimizing getting the best number, but simply stating generating the best estimates is what the big boys do best.

[Patrick McIrish]

Thanks for the feedback guys, seriously. I was away yesterday and was really hoping others would read the post and comment on it if they think it's a worthwhile subject. I know it's not for everyone but if some enjoy it than that's good enough for me. It's easy to come up with an idea to start a subject like SQUARE TALK but when I actually sat down to write out some thoughts it was more difficult than I expected. Bear with me. From head to fingers a lot gets lost in the transition, LOL. Anyway I will continue on, think it's nice to throw ideas around but hope wiser one's than I will continue to pitch in. Thanks to all who did here.

I will go back and answer the questions I can in a bit, keep the suggestions coming. I will definitely keep doing it since others seem to like to chat on sports as well.

[Patrick McIrish]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by tryingtofade:
Good thread, Patrick. A great follow up would be a step by step walkthrough of how you take a matchup and convert it into a moneyline.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Not a bad idea though it may show just how many sides this square has. Might be good to throw it out and hear what others will add or take away.

Jersey - thanks for the comments. On bases I like to pick my numbers off as early as I can, almost exclusively the night before. For that reason I don't use Hollywood, Cascade and some others that I would if I bet later the day of the game. For me I use Pinnacle, CanBet, BetWorks and Intertops mostly for bases right now. I think between these 4 books I am getting the best number and I have no worry about my money. I also have an arrangement with a local that I may mention in an upcoming post that helps a great deal. If you can have a couple extra outs or do your capping the day of the game that might change some, maybe a good question for others. I think a lot of people respect Lenny's numbers when they are hung.

Blue - I will start a thread about football books to hear what others say. Square books like SIA are great if you can bet smart enough to not get booted. I am king of the squares in football and do not bet it as much as other sports so I want to hear other opinions.

[jwunderdog]

Patrick, Threads like this can be very helpful but I would break it down into small topics and have posters post insight,on each topic. Example: THe worth of 1/2 a run when betting over/unders. What is better taking a half a run to a whole # or off a whole#. In other words if you had two books one hanging an 8 and one hanging an 8.5 what should the price difference be for these to be equal bets.

THese type of small topics can change your winning % by 1/4%, which adds up over time with each topic. Just a thought.

[Patrick McIrish]

Good suggestion Dog. I do think each topic in the main post could be broken down more indepth. Good feedback. As I said was trying to feel out others if this would interest anyone. Surprised by the results. When I do totals that is a good idea. I can give the info you mentioned and add stuff like the % a game will land on the key numbers and how much a half run is worth off certain numbers. It varies. Thanks.

When we graduate from SQUARE TALK we go to tech talk. This is the minor leagues up here. http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_cool.gif

[punter puppy]

Sodium Pentethol's perspective makes a lot of sense to me.

If the outcome projections (handicaping of games) that you use are not better on average then the those represented in the lines you choose to wager into, I don't see how you can hope to win in the long run, regardless of how well you shop for lines.

-punter puppy

[Sugarbear]

The disclaimer I will put on this is I am not the voice of authority on this. Not even going to pretend to be anything close. I will pass on some real life experiences of mine and more importantly hope others sharper than I will contribute. When thinking of the name who better to host SQUARE TALK than Mr Square himself. That's me Patrick McIrish. Part of learning in life is being humble enough to admit you don't already have all the answers. Got a dozen of the smartest men in the world who already post here, this is for us who are secure enough to admit we can improve. There's a saying one thing a man MUST know before he can teach his dog tricks is more than the dog. LOL. Not sure I know more than most here so keep that in mind. If we help one person learn some stuff it will be worth it plus I can tell Shrink I was busy working. The fact I love this stuff anyway is besides the point. Coming off my play losing 9-0 last night it seemed like the time was right for SQUARE TALK to get off the ground......


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In my opinion winning at sportsbetting is a lot like a football team as it evolves. I live in Tampa and in 1976 when the Bucs entered the NFL we went 0-26 in our first two seasons before winning a game, an NFL record. This year we won the Super Bowl. As you progress in sportsbetting you will notice changes in the way you think, just like a team does. They claim a team goes through 3 steps on it's way to being a proven winner. Again using the Bucs for example, when they entered the league they were going through step #1 which is hoping you can win. When you line up Sunday you have good intentions and a desire to win. Step #2 comes about when you evolve to the point where the team starts to thing we CAN win. No more hoping, the team works hard in practice and they feel they can win when they flip the coin every week. Finally step #3 is when a team EXPECTS to win. Doesn't seem like a big difference but when you expect to win versus thinking you can win it is night and day. We've all bet on teams and you just feel they will not lose this game. I sat in the Old Sombrero as Berman calls it and if the Bucs were up 21-0 at halftime you still just did not believe they would win. Nowadays if they are down 21-0 at halftime you still expect them to win. More importantly the same thoughts of either expecting to win or wondering if we would win were in those locker rooms. In both instances I would guess it showed on the field as well.


How does this correspond to sportsbetting? Not sure yet but trying to make up something. LOL. No the point here is first to win at anything you have to be honest with yourself. Some people will NEVER win betting sports. The reason for it is as varied as the chicks Dennis Rodman dates. Some don't win because they don't want to. Sure he'd like to win but he's calling his bookie to lay half a yard on his favorite team to win on a line he got out of the newspaper. Others want to win but they don't want to put the time or effort in to learn how. Still others would put the time in if they knew what they were suppossed to be doing in trying to learn. And yet still some others just want action. They are only betting because the tracks are closed, the on-line lottery is full or the midget throwing over in Australia has been suspended for a few days. They want ACTION! Having that action is much more important than anything else. As I said, lots of reasons people don't win.



For our first think tank I want to talk on the part about getting your bet down. Most wiseguys will tell you there is nothing more important in betting sports THAN PLAYING AT THE BEST NUMBER! It's a very good rule to get used to when conducting your business. Say I like the Bucs -6 but earlier it was -4, if I missed the price I need I pass on the game. The value has disappeared. If I have to choose between picking the best handicapper in the world and taking the worst number, or taking the best number with Beaner doing the handicapping than I go with Beaner. It is that important. In no real ogranized manner here are some suggestions for us squares.....


Nothing I hear more from a friend of mine than what's the big deal on the price? This guy makes 50 wagers a week but only has one out. Doesn't want another one either. I beg him to at least add a couple more outs but he just doesn't see it. I have shown him where a difference can be a 1/2 point to 2 points but it's no big deal to him. If you are going to win it has to be a big deal. Frankly I think the amount of outs is overrated in my view. Often people wear it as a badge of honor. "Hell I've got 83 outs I use, the wife carries another 20 if I need them". Unless you are running a professional scalp and middle team you don't need that many. You do need a bare minumum of 4 or 5 outs though. If you can't afford it or don't recognize why you need them than go find the naked picture or hangman thread and leave us alone here. The truth is though if you are playing with this few they have to be books who hang different numbers. No need in having a Skybook account and a Rio account if they hang the exact same prices. You need books who will have the greatest variance you can find on games. The idea being whichever side you are on you will have a shot at the best number. So a couple of good books who like dogs and a couple who like chalk would be a good start. If you don't know which books are which feel free to ask me, it changes depending on the sport. I also recommend keeping locals if you have any, I will get more into this down the road but they can be a nice ace in the hole.


I also think you need to start learning to set prices on the games too. Before you even look at the overnights for the lines you should practice setting your own lines. Nothing will teach you quicker what goes into the lines than trying to set your own. The numbers are set mostly for the books in order to attempt to get balanced action. Does not always mean they agree with the lines they hang necessarily. I'm just making this up (it may or may not be true) but if the public as a rule puts too much emphasis on a star's injury the pro's who set the openers may take that into account. Let's say Peyton Manning is out. With Peyton the line may be Colts -4, without him they may change it to Colts -1. In reality the line should only be -3 or so but if the public has a history of overreacting to a star's injury the guys who set the lines already know this. Be aware of the role injuries play in the lines. Also they may know the public loves to bet the Yankees, Duke, Cowboys etc... so they shade the lines against them. These aren't great examples but the point is in order to beat the lines you have to understand where they are coming from and how they are set. What all goes into them? How can you recognize value if you have no idea what something is worth? How can someone have an opinion on totals in baseball if they do not know what 7, 8 or 9 is worth? How often do these numbers hit and how many cents is half a run worth for example? Which is better 8.5 over -120 or 9 over +110? In poker one of the first things in Hold 'em we learned was get used to putting your opponent on a hand. Tough to play your hand and get any long term results if you have no idea what the other guy has. Practice it and it becomes second nature even if you have to back up in the hand to make an educated guess. "He limped in from early position yet he check raised the flop etc....." Does no good at all to see Pinnacle has the Twins at -180 if you don't have any idea where the number should be.


I will stop now and see if anyone else can add to what we have talked about so far or correct me if need be. Again I want to be perfectly clear that I work here so I'd like to have these talks but sometimes it comes across as me pretending to be some sort of wiseguy. I am just here trying to learn like everyone else. To me I have went through similar steps as I mentioned above in betting. I started out hoping I could win. I won't use the NFL because that is clearly my weakest sport and I'm fooling no one other than myself if I don't understand I have to work at this game. In baseball I can usually grind out a small winner for the season but it took a while to get here. I know of not one long term gambler who has not ever been busted. Not one! When younger I was busted more than a "Virgins Gone Bad" 3 pack special at the porn store. I started having a little success in baseball and began reading everything I could get my hands on. I opened up with a few more outs and began to study the game. Still wasn't really winning but slowly the attitude came that I felt I CAN win at this sport. Still I made stupid mistakes. I'd have no money management or discipline. I'd spend hours capping a game and if I lost it try and double up on the late game to get even. Or if I had money in my accounts or a positive balance than I could hardly stand to let it sit there until my next play, I wanted to get it in action. Mistake after mistake. Eventually I started to realize what it takes to win in baseball. I mentioned some of them above. More than one out where I can shop for the best lines. Some sort of money management and a basic understanding of what the lines and numbers represent. Slowly I began to EXPECT to win. While to this day I hate to lose I learned a bad night didn't discourage me off the long term plan. A night in sportsbetting is like one hand in poker, that's it. If you are making the value plays you will win long term. I don't know the disparity on how long a winner can lose or a loser can win but don't let that fool you, it can last a while. If you are making plays and taking the worst of it you will go busted eventually. I have played poker with people who said there is no way in this lifetime that man will ever go broke. If you are playing poker incorrectly, spending time at the crap table, playing slot machines with negative expectation or any of a number of things you will lose your bankroll eventually. The only variables are how often you take the worst of it, how big you are playing and how big your bankroll was when you started. There is no cheating in this game, you are only fooling yourself. If you are a loser at these games and taking the worst of it the only question is if you will live long enough to go busted. It's coming. Anyway thanks for listening men. If anyone likes this or gets anything out of it I will make it a regular thing. If not you won't hurt my feelings, they've toughened me up around here. Peace.

[This message was edited by Patrick McIrish on June 30, 2003 at 11:21 PM.]




This is Excellent. A ton of truths and insights in this post. what hapened to square talk? Excellent concept.

[Sugarbear]

we are all squares to some degree.......

i know plenty of "sharps" on the sports...but get them around a racetrack and they turn in to pure sucker......ive seen scalpers and middlers lose control at the dice table........

think your bookie knows all when it comes to gambling?? sit him down at the poker table....

if all else fails........ a pretty lady usually does the trick..........lol



Clap, Clap, Clap.

[Fishhead]

we are all squares to some degree.......

i know plenty of "sharps" on the sports...but get them around a racetrack and they turn in to pure sucker......ive seen scalpers and middlers lose control at the dice table........

think your bookie knows all when it comes to gambling?? sit him down at the poker table....

if all else fails........ a pretty lady usually does the trick..........lol


This has been my downfall time and time and time and time and time and time and time and time again.

[Journeyman]

This has been my downfall time and time and time and time and time and time and time and time again.

Can't tell you how many times I have been thrown off my game (of life) for one....not so much betting but in general.

:nohead:

[bigdong]

hey who is this patrick mcirish charactor??,..ok ok i read alot of this thread,..i like this guys posts!!,..just remember him from long ago at,...well heck eric's mr.odds,............yeah long ago!!:103631605

[Fishhead]

McIrish is one of the very sharpest gamblers I have ever had the honor of meeting.

[winbet]

Sugarbear,
Nobody on this Forum has the Balls to tell people when their going off the Tracks, but I will. For you to spend time going back 3 years in posts means you have a problem, I dont know what it is but better you talk about that than cover it up. I for one will help if I can but there's others here that you can E-Mail for help. :103631605

[Patrick McIrish]

This is Excellent. A ton of truths and insights in this post. what hapened to square talk? Excellent concept.


Wow, I didn't even remember writing this thread until I just reread it. Thank GOD I got off the pain killers, LOL. I was a mod here at the time and I was always tired of the bickering, tried to get discussions on other things rather than the fighting. Damn they were right, I was boring as hell! Thanks for the ride through memory lane Bear.

[Sugarbear]

Sugarbear,
Nobody on this Forum has the Balls to tell people when their going off the Tracks, but I will. For you to spend time going back 3 years in posts means you have a problem, I dont know what it is but better you talk about that than cover it up. I for one will help if I can but there's others here that you can E-Mail for help. :103631605



I have been studying the history of the offshores for some time winbet for reasons that will be apparent later on in the year. Suffice it to say 2 things. One I can easily prove that in the last 5.5 years as I have gone back to the graveyard for some answers that many answers to many problems have been disscussed and acted on but thru pure greed and twisted agenda's from nefarious types left and right thru the years
WATCHDOGS AND PLAYER ALIKE nobody has ever done a thing to correct it or establish the offshores as the respected entity they should be after
10 YEARS OUT THERE. I have bumped many things from the past on here and MW that point this out with plenty of insightful commentary on how I really feel sitting on MW. You want to see sick? Go read along my line there. I dare you if you want to know the real truth of things. My handle is Juice there.

When the hard times that are here now for the offshores become truly apparent and the players run around with there heads cut off screaming for help I have stuff written stuff already that shows this exact path of inaction and the inward implosion it is now causing places to collapse out there just like what happened in Vegas in the 80's.


I will bring it up for all to review as well as uncork stuff saved to file.
You can look at it as a mirror under construction that few will be able to look in when I am done. I am already done with it in truth.


I also have done a deconstruction of the late 70's and the 80' and what are the real things that happened to bring the True Vegas Old Guard to a close.


In time I will be presenting to the public the 80's deconstruction and if I am right about all I have said about the offshores I will be the one answering the questions to THE RIGHT PEOPLE HERE IN VEGAS as to what happened out there and how to fix it seeing that I have found all the answers to the main problems several times over now plus you can add people are way more up to speed than people think out here just being observers and followers of what goes on in there industry as a matter of proffesionalism if nothing else.


We all see the same basic things and I speak for many when I write the things I do. Whats scary the stuff thats lacking out there is truly fundemental buisness 101 stuff first. Forget bookmaking. A true appalling
lack thereof of fundementals. The offshores in my proffesional opinion
only have three places that can stand in the modern day Vegas light right this second no problem.


Pinnacle, WSEX and CANBET. CANBET is really the leader when you consider all of the parts of the operation first and then add players funds security that all point to as the way to do it. There are other factors also.


2. When its Sat July 1st and you are at work from 8-1 when everyone in America is on holiday for the 4th here which means no one will be calling in where I work but you still have to be there just in case with positivly nothing to do before August 1st and going on Vacation right after the shift is over and you done all you can do on the net in a hour.


Puliing up old threads in a "this day in history" fashion passes the time. Sometimes you find really good stuff that should either invoke thought like Dante's post since it is an appliable question today or teaches something timeless and just as true as today as it was yesterday. How many more sqaures have come on to the scene since Patrick wrote this in 03 that could use this exact help right now?


These type of things contribute to a socitey and sometimes brings it back to its roots.



Thank you for asking Winbet. I have been wantng to get a lot of that off my chest for awhile now. Whew. I really do feel much better. Thanks.

[whalewager]

I have been studying the history of the offshores for some time winbet for reasons that will be apparent later on in the year. Suffice it to say 2 things. One I can easily prove that in the last 5.5 years as I have gone back to the graveyard for some answers that many answers to many problems have been disscussed and acted on but thru pure greed and twisted agenda's from nefarious types left and right thru the years
WATCHDOGS AND PLAYER ALIKE nobody has ever done a thing to correct it or establish the offshores as the respected entity they should be after
10 YEARS OUT THERE. I have bumped many things from the past on here and MW that point this out with plenty of insightful commentary on how I really feel sitting on MW. You want to see sick? Go read along my line there. I dare you if you want to know the real truth of things. My handle is Juice there.

When the hard times that are here now for the offshores become truly apparent and the players run around with there heads cut off screaming for help I have stuff written stuff already that shows this exact path of inaction and the inward implosion it is now causing places to collapse out there just like what happened in Vegas in the 80's.


I will bring it up for all to review as well as uncork stuff saved to file.
You can look at it as a mirror under construction that few will be able to look in when I am done. I am already done with it in truth.


I also have done a deconstruction of the late 70's and the 80' and what are the real things that happened to bring the True Vegas Old Guard to a close.


In time I will be presenting to the public the 80's deconstruction and if I am right about all I have said about the offshores I will be the one answering the questions to THE RIGHT PEOPLE HERE IN VEGAS as to what happened out there and how to fix it seeing that I have found all the answers to the main problems several times over now plus you can add people are way more up to speed than people think out here just being observers and followers of what goes on in there industry as a matter of proffesionalism if nothing else.


We all see the same basic things and I speak for many when I write the things I do. Whats scary the stuff thats lacking out there is truly fundemental buisness 101 stuff first. Forget bookmaking. A true appalling
lack thereof of fundementals. The offshores in my proffesional opinion
only have three places that can stand in the modern day Vegas light right this second no problem.


Pinnacle, WSEX and CANBET. CANBET is really the leader when you consider all of the parts of the operation first and then add players funds security that all point to as the way to do it. There are other factors also.


2. When its Sat July 1st and you are at work from 8-1 when everyone in America is on holiday for the 4th here which means no one will be calling in where I work but you still have to be there just in case with positivly nothing to do before August 1st and going on Vacation right after the shift is over and you done all you can do on the net in a hour.


Puliing up old threads in a "this day in history" fashion passes the time. Sometimes you find really good stuff that should either invoke thought like Dante's post since it is an appliable question today or teaches something timeless and just as true as today as it was yesterday. How many more sqaures have come on to the scene since Patrick wrote this in 03 that could use this exact help right now?


These type of things contribute to a socitey and sometimes brings it back to its roots.



Thank you for asking Winbet. I have been wantng to get a lot of that off my chest for awhile now. Whew. I really do feel much better. Thanks.


I gotta get to know u sugar. Hopefully we will meet up one day.

[Coach LT]

I have been studying the history of the offshores for some time winbet for reasons that will be apparent later on in the year. Suffice it to say 2 things. One I can easily prove that in the last 5.5 years as I have gone back to the graveyard for some answers that many answers to many problems have been disscussed and acted on but thru pure greed and twisted agenda's from nefarious types left and right thru the years
WATCHDOGS AND PLAYER ALIKE nobody has ever done a thing to correct it or establish the offshores as the respected entity they should be after
10 YEARS OUT THERE. I have bumped many things from the past on here and MW that point this out with plenty of insightful commentary on how I really feel sitting on MW. You want to see sick? Go read along my line there. I dare you if you want to know the real truth of things. My handle is Juice there.

When the hard times that are here now for the offshores become truly apparent and the players run around with there heads cut off screaming for help I have stuff written stuff already that shows this exact path of inaction and the inward implosion it is now causing places to collapse out there just like what happened in Vegas in the 80's.


I will bring it up for all to review as well as uncork stuff saved to file.
You can look at it as a mirror under construction that few will be able to look in when I am done. I am already done with it in truth.


I also have done a deconstruction of the late 70's and the 80' and what are the real things that happened to bring the True Vegas Old Guard to a close.


In time I will be presenting to the public the 80's deconstruction and if I am right about all I have said about the offshores I will be the one answering the questions to THE RIGHT PEOPLE HERE IN VEGAS as to what happened out there and how to fix it seeing that I have found all the answers to the main problems several times over now plus you can add people are way more up to speed than people think out here just being observers and followers of what goes on in there industry as a matter of proffesionalism if nothing else.


We all see the same basic things and I speak for many when I write the things I do. Whats scary the stuff thats lacking out there is truly fundemental buisness 101 stuff first. Forget bookmaking. A true appalling
lack thereof of fundementals. The offshores in my proffesional opinion
only have three places that can stand in the modern day Vegas light right this second no problem.


Pinnacle, WSEX and CANBET. CANBET is really the leader when you consider all of the parts of the operation first and then add players funds security that all point to as the way to do it. There are other factors also.


2. When its Sat July 1st and you are at work from 8-1 when everyone in America is on holiday for the 4th here which means no one will be calling in where I work but you still have to be there just in case with positivly nothing to do before August 1st and going on Vacation right after the shift is over and you done all you can do on the net in a hour.


Puliing up old threads in a "this day in history" fashion passes the time. Sometimes you find really good stuff that should either invoke thought like Dante's post since it is an appliable question today or teaches something timeless and just as true as today as it was yesterday. How many more sqaures have come on to the scene since Patrick wrote this in 03 that could use this exact help right now?


These type of things contribute to a socitey and sometimes brings it back to its roots.



Thank you for asking Winbet. I have been wantng to get a lot of that off my chest for awhile now. Whew. I really do feel much better. Thanks.






Sugarbear, I really look forward to your walk down memory lane. As an older punter I LOVE having my memory refreshed. It seems that the newer players only want winning selections without having to bother to learn how someone comes to the selection. How long have you been around the Vegas sporting scene? If you go back to the late 70s and early 80s we might know some of the same people. Will you be at the Bash? Hope so, LT:103631605 :party:

[Bluemyboy]

keep in mind I am very young and have alot to learn but here is some stuff I have learned really in the last year in a half, before that I was just giving money away.

1. Track your bets. may not be much but it has honestly made me think about why I am making a bet on a couple occasions and saves you alot of hassel if you feel you have an issue.

2. Don't bet into a tendency that the books take advantage of. Basically like I believe it was said above 80% of people betting one side and the books are still taking the action means that something might be up. It may not win this time but it pays off in the long run. injurys and hearsay are played up alot more then they should be in reality. Books do shade action and if you do not believe it you will pay for it.

3. Obviously get the best line, but try not to spread yourself to thin. pretty much what the first post suggested, that half point may not turn you into a winning gambler, but it will sure save you on multiple occations. reduced vig works the same in the same way.

4. money management and dedication to being smart will in my oppinion aid most the furthest. It is oversaid but underused. that 20-40$ you throw away on a horrible parlay every now and again makes it that much harder to meet your break even point.

5. bonuses and contest "whoring" may be looked down on by some, but hey the books have their advantage why not gain a little upperhand. there is lots written throughout the forum on smart ways to turn over the restrictions.

beyond that, sportsbetting is not rocket science, but to actually make money it requires paitence and understanding that consistency is going to be a grind, although it may have the sexy appearance of that big shot, odds are astronomical of that one big sting.
Hell quite honestly I have come so that come football season I look at nothing but public percentages and line movement, quick and I get what I want. That combined with what I said above makes me quite secure in every bet I make. There is obviously people who make it by pouring over stats and trends, and that is all well and fine if you are willing to put in the time and know what to look for. Bottom line is you must enjoy doing this and just be responsible with what you are doing. Hell if you are able to read this entire thread you are giving this "hobby, thing, profession" the attention it requires. Good thread, and great posts!

[Sugarbear]

Sugarbear, I really look forward to your walk down memory lane. As an older punter I LOVE having my memory refreshed. It seems that the newer players only want winning selections without having to bother to learn how someone comes to the selection. How long have you been around the Vegas sporting scene? If you go back to the late 70s and early 80s we might know some of the same people. Will you be at the Bash? Hope so, LT:103631605 :party:


Thank you Coach you are truly one of the people I look up to in here.
I have been around the sports betting scene since Jan 91 and to the best of my knowledge I am the only one of my generation which I call tweener.

Tweener refers to the time after of the true Vegas Old Guard but a solid 5 years before the internet offshore. If you or anyone has not read my Sportsbook stories from the 90's or my Could you live this life from the bottom up today thread please do as it sets the table for what I hope is to come.



Its not so much my memories you will hear about but the many little people behind the scenes stories as well. There are many you will hear from one way or another by Dec.


My true writing stance is called Other Side of the Counter or OTC. Forever and always when I am talking about a lot of things I am behind the counter at the dust just doing my thing while seprating the public from there money one dollar at a time. Money they are happy to give for not much more than some sheets, pens, a place to sit, drink tickets and comps to the buffet or more correctly for the Stardust the snack bar that is in the sportsbook area becase thats as far as most can stand to be away from there action. NO LIE. People would stab there own mother for a comp to the coffee shop, let me tell you. They take full advantage too. You should see some of the bills that have come back. He ordered what???? If you only knew.


Just little insights like that. Not so much stories but insight of what its like or was like behind the scenes.



I will be at the bash.

[SteamDaddy]

The disclaimer I will put on this is I am not the voice of authority on this. Not even going to pretend to be anything close. I will pass on some real life experiences of mine and more importantly hope others sharper than I will contribute. When thinking of the name who better to host SQUARE TALK than Mr Square himself. That's me Patrick McIrish. Part of learning in life is being humble enough to admit you don't already have all the answers. Got a dozen of the smartest men in the world who already post here, this is for us who are secure enough to admit we can improve. There's a saying one thing a man MUST know before he can teach his dog tricks is more than the dog. LOL. Not sure I know more than most here so keep that in mind. If we help one person learn some stuff it will be worth it plus I can tell Shrink I was busy working. The fact I love this stuff anyway is besides the point. Coming off my play losing 9-0 last night it seemed like the time was right for SQUARE TALK to get off the ground......


---------------------------


In my opinion winning at sportsbetting is a lot like a football team as it evolves. I live in Tampa and in 1976 when the Bucs entered the NFL we went 0-26 in our first two seasons before winning a game, an NFL record. This year we won the Super Bowl. As you progress in sportsbetting you will notice changes in the way you think, just like a team does. They claim a team goes through 3 steps on it's way to being a proven winner. Again using the Bucs for example, when they entered the league they were going through step #1 which is hoping you can win. When you line up Sunday you have good intentions and a desire to win. Step #2 comes about when you evolve to the point where the team starts to thing we CAN win. No more hoping, the team works hard in practice and they feel they can win when they flip the coin every week. Finally step #3 is when a team EXPECTS to win. Doesn't seem like a big difference but when you expect to win versus thinking you can win it is night and day. We've all bet on teams and you just feel they will not lose this game. I sat in the Old Sombrero as Berman calls it and if the Bucs were up 21-0 at halftime you still just did not believe they would win. Nowadays if they are down 21-0 at halftime you still expect them to win. More importantly the same thoughts of either expecting to win or wondering if we would win were in those locker rooms. In both instances I would guess it showed on the field as well.


How does this correspond to sportsbetting? Not sure yet but trying to make up something. LOL. No the point here is first to win at anything you have to be honest with yourself. Some people will NEVER win betting sports. The reason for it is as varied as the chicks Dennis Rodman dates. Some don't win because they don't want to. Sure he'd like to win but he's calling his bookie to lay half a yard on his favorite team to win on a line he got out of the newspaper. Others want to win but they don't want to put the time or effort in to learn how. Still others would put the time in if they knew what they were suppossed to be doing in trying to learn. And yet still some others just want action. They are only betting because the tracks are closed, the on-line lottery is full or the midget throwing over in Australia has been suspended for a few days. They want ACTION! Having that action is much more important than anything else. As I said, lots of reasons people don't win.



For our first think tank I want to talk on the part about getting your bet down. Most wiseguys will tell you there is nothing more important in betting sports THAN PLAYING AT THE BEST NUMBER! It's a very good rule to get used to when conducting your business. Say I like the Bucs -6 but earlier it was -4, if I missed the price I need I pass on the game. The value has disappeared. If I have to choose between picking the best handicapper in the world and taking the worst number, or taking the best number with Beaner doing the handicapping than I go with Beaner. It is that important. In no real ogranized manner here are some suggestions for us squares.....


Nothing I hear more from a friend of mine than what's the big deal on the price? This guy makes 50 wagers a week but only has one out. Doesn't want another one either. I beg him to at least add a couple more outs but he just doesn't see it. I have shown him where a difference can be a 1/2 point to 2 points but it's no big deal to him. If you are going to win it has to be a big deal. Frankly I think the amount of outs is overrated in my view. Often people wear it as a badge of honor. "Hell I've got 83 outs I use, the wife carries another 20 if I need them". Unless you are running a professional scalp and middle team you don't need that many. You do need a bare minumum of 4 or 5 outs though. If you can't afford it or don't recognize why you need them than go find the naked picture or hangman thread and leave us alone here. The truth is though if you are playing with this few they have to be books who hang different numbers. No need in having a Skybook account and a Rio account if they hang the exact same prices. You need books who will have the greatest variance you can find on games. The idea being whichever side you are on you will have a shot at the best number. So a couple of good books who like dogs and a couple who like chalk would be a good start. If you don't know which books are which feel free to ask me, it changes depending on the sport. I also recommend keeping locals if you have any, I will get more into this down the road but they can be a nice ace in the hole.


I also think you need to start learning to set prices on the games too. Before you even look at the overnights for the lines you should practice setting your own lines. Nothing will teach you quicker what goes into the lines than trying to set your own. The numbers are set mostly for the books in order to attempt to get balanced action. Does not always mean they agree with the lines they hang necessarily. I'm just making this up (it may or may not be true) but if the public as a rule puts too much emphasis on a star's injury the pro's who set the openers may take that into account. Let's say Peyton Manning is out. With Peyton the line may be Colts -4, without him they may change it to Colts -1. In reality the line should only be -3 or so but if the public has a history of overreacting to a star's injury the guys who set the lines already know this. Be aware of the role injuries play in the lines. Also they may know the public loves to bet the Yankees, Duke, Cowboys etc... so they shade the lines against them. These aren't great examples but the point is in order to beat the lines you have to understand where they are coming from and how they are set. What all goes into them? How can you recognize value if you have no idea what something is worth? How can someone have an opinion on totals in baseball if they do not know what 7, 8 or 9 is worth? How often do these numbers hit and how many cents is half a run worth for example? Which is better 8.5 over -120 or 9 over +110? In poker one of the first things in Hold 'em we learned was get used to putting your opponent on a hand. Tough to play your hand and get any long term results if you have no idea what the other guy has. Practice it and it becomes second nature even if you have to back up in the hand to make an educated guess. "He limped in from early position yet he check raised the flop etc....." Does no good at all to see Pinnacle has the Twins at -180 if you don't have any idea where the number should be.


I will stop now and see if anyone else can add to what we have talked about so far or correct me if need be. Again I want to be perfectly clear that I work here so I'd like to have these talks but sometimes it comes across as me pretending to be some sort of wiseguy. I am just here trying to learn like everyone else. To me I have went through similar steps as I mentioned above in betting. I started out hoping I could win. I won't use the NFL because that is clearly my weakest sport and I'm fooling no one other than myself if I don't understand I have to work at this game. In baseball I can usually grind out a small winner for the season but it took a while to get here. I know of not one long term gambler who has not ever been busted. Not one! When younger I was busted more than a "Virgins Gone Bad" 3 pack special at the porn store. I started having a little success in baseball and began reading everything I could get my hands on. I opened up with a few more outs and began to study the game. Still wasn't really winning but slowly the attitude came that I felt I CAN win at this sport. Still I made stupid mistakes. I'd have no money management or discipline. I'd spend hours capping a game and if I lost it try and double up on the late game to get even. Or if I had money in my accounts or a positive balance than I could hardly stand to let it sit there until my next play, I wanted to get it in action. Mistake after mistake. Eventually I started to realize what it takes to win in baseball. I mentioned some of them above. More than one out where I can shop for the best lines. Some sort of money management and a basic understanding of what the lines and numbers represent. Slowly I began to EXPECT to win. While to this day I hate to lose I learned a bad night didn't discourage me off the long term plan. A night in sportsbetting is like one hand in poker, that's it. If you are making the value plays you will win long term. I don't know the disparity on how long a winner can lose or a loser can win but don't let that fool you, it can last a while. If you are making plays and taking the worst of it you will go busted eventually. I have played poker with people who said there is no way in this lifetime that man will ever go broke. If you are playing poker incorrectly, spending time at the crap table, playing slot machines with negative expectation or any of a number of things you will lose your bankroll eventually. The only variables are how often you take the worst of it, how big you are playing and how big your bankroll was when you started. There is no cheating in this game, you are only fooling yourself. If you are a loser at these games and taking the worst of it the only question is if you will live long enough to go busted. It's coming. Anyway thanks for listening men. If anyone likes this or gets anything out of it I will make it a regular thing. If not you won't hurt my feelings, they've toughened me up around here. Peace.

[This message was edited by Patrick McIrish on June 30, 2003 at 11:21 PM.]

What a load of babblegab:puppy:

[Fishhead]

SteamDaddy-

McIrish will be the first to tell you that he gets destoyed, absolutely destoyed........... year in and year out.

[Coach LT]

Thank you Coach you are truly one of the people I look up to in here.
I have been around the sports betting scene since Jan 91 and to the best of my knowledge I am the only one of my generation which I call tweener.

Tweener refers to the time after of the true Vegas Old Guard but a solid 5 years before the internet offshore. If you or anyone has not read my Sportsbook stories from the 90's or my Could you live this life from the bottom up today thread please do as it sets the table for what I hope is to come.



Its not so much my memories you will hear about but the many little people behind the scenes stories as well. There are many you will hear from one way or another by Dec.


My true writing stance is called Other Side of the Counter or OTC. Forever and always when I am talking about a lot of things I am behind the counter at the dust just doing my thing while seprating the public from there money one dollar at a time. Money they are happy to give for not much more than some sheets, pens, a place to sit, drink tickets and comps to the buffet or more correctly for the Stardust the snack bar that is in the sportsbook area becase thats as far as most can stand to be away from there action. NO LIE. People would stab there own mother for a comp to the coffee shop, let me tell you. They take full advantage too. You should see some of the bills that have come back. He ordered what???? If you only knew.


Just little insights like that. Not so much stories but insight of what its like or was like behind the scenes.



I will be at the bash.





Sugarbear, thanks for the compliment! I look forward to you sharing your experiences with us. I will probably be in LV on tuesday the 15th or wednesday the 16th at the latest. This Bash is shaping up to be the most informative Bash ever. The early lineup of "Grizzled Veterans" that will attend will be a great way to swap stories and most important, share personally our way to pick winners. Sometimes it only takes ONE angle or different way someone else does things to make ALL the difference in a few added winners. Cannot wait to meet you guys and share. LT:103631605 :toast: :party:

[Fishhead]

keep in mind I am very young and have alot to learn but here is some stuff I have learned really in the last year in a half, before that I was just giving money away.

1. Track your bets. may not be much but it has honestly made me think about why I am making a bet on a couple occasions and saves you alot of hassel if you feel you have an issue.

2. Don't bet into a tendency that the books take advantage of. Basically like I believe it was said above 80% of people betting one side and the books are still taking the action means that something might be up. It may not win this time but it pays off in the long run. injurys and hearsay are played up alot more then they should be in reality. Books do shade action and if you do not believe it you will pay for it.

3. Obviously get the best line, but try not to spread yourself to thin. pretty much what the first post suggested, that half point may not turn you into a winning gambler, but it will sure save you on multiple occations. reduced vig works the same in the same way.

4. money management and dedication to being smart will in my oppinion aid most the furthest. It is oversaid but underused. that 20-40$ you throw away on a horrible parlay every now and again makes it that much harder to meet your break even point.

5. bonuses and contest "whoring" may be looked down on by some, but hey the books have their advantage why not gain a little upperhand. there is lots written throughout the forum on smart ways to turn over the restrictions.

beyond that, sportsbetting is not rocket science, but to actually make money it requires paitence and understanding that consistency is going to be a grind, although it may have the sexy appearance of that big shot, odds are astronomical of that one big sting.
Hell quite honestly I have come so that come football season I look at nothing but public percentages and line movement, quick and I get what I want. That combined with what I said above makes me quite secure in every bet I make. There is obviously people who make it by pouring over stats and trends, and that is all well and fine if you are willing to put in the time and know what to look for. Bottom line is you must enjoy doing this and just be responsible with what you are doing. Hell if you are able to read this entire thread you are giving this "hobby, thing, profession" the attention it requires. Good thread, and great posts!


Nice addition to this thread BLUE

[Sugarbear]

A positive classic worth reading again.