Does anyone here FADE a capper after they`ve been on fire? [Archive] - Sportsbetting Forums | Offshore Sportsbooks & Online Sports Picks

The General

05-18-2003, 03:55 PM

Dogball,

Playing on the "DUE" is a big part of my game. I am not going to argue it, cause some will say im a nut, but it works & i tend to double down until they hit. Works more than not, but one must learn the cappers first. Very important. And the games need to be layered so that one has a solid trend to bet on.

If you post 3 games that start @ once, then i cant really get a trend unless they all hit or miss before you post your next play. If you post the 4th while the others are in progress, then its not easy.

Duckstabber

05-18-2003, 03:58 PM

Of course not! The results of their picks yesterday don't affect their picks today. (Assuming that we're only talking about serious cappers who don't change their capping methods from day to day)

Journeyman

05-18-2003, 03:58 PM

Knowing the cappers style and posting schedule is important...It sounds like The General has this down to some degree...

dogball

05-18-2003, 03:59 PM

Dante- wise choice my friend. http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_cool.gif
Dante- are you ever in NYC or should we meet at Lugers for dinner? Lets get together for a dinner soon. We can even make it a local thing and get a few local boys from the area, likedocdekay ...
Let me know

General- Got to say I am surprised. Learn something new everyday . Best of luck and thanks for the response. Why dont you open up a local shop??

The General

05-18-2003, 04:03 PM

I do not have the capital to book, but to be honest it is a possibility in the future. We do not know what the future holds though. Not feasible in the near future.

I tried to relate this theory of wagering in the RR once & got laughed out of there. http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

The General

05-18-2003, 04:05 PM

And you guys thought i was building a post count when i reply in all those sports threads. http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

May as well say hi, while im there http://theprescription.infopop.net/infopop/emoticons/icon_razz.gif

There's a method/reason for all madness.

dogball

05-18-2003, 04:07 PM

General-
In the end, It would probably work if you stick with it.

I was in atlantic city last night and lost for 2nd time in 2 weeks there. I was ****ing around near the end of night and started playing craps " DOnt Pass"
If i had the patience to stick with it , I could have made a nice comeback. I also realize what it takes to win at sports gambling and it is an amazing amount of effort to do so. Luckily I am a natural
http://therx.infopop.cc/infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

The General

05-18-2003, 04:10 PM

Thanks for sharing Dogball. I wish you the best. I was one who nominated you for poster of the month or week for your winners last year, so i knew you had talent. http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

jjgold

05-18-2003, 04:12 PM

General's methods are actually pretty good. If you see a guy 3-0 in early bases and has 2 more to go, the worst you will do is 1-1 most of the time, this is good for any sport and you can use all different type of fading methods. This is not to say our cappers are not good, they are excellent but it is the law of averages.

I think though it does not work in soccer forums because the guys are sharp and only play select games which makes it harder.

Dante

05-18-2003, 04:16 PM

thanks my friend I would love to but...I was born in brooklyn...not there now...but that will always be home..

raiders72001

05-18-2003, 04:17 PM

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> General's methods are actually pretty good. If you see a guy 3-0 in early bases and has 2 more to go, the worst you will do is 1-1 most of the time <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

This is similar to the guy that plays black in roulette after red has come up three times in a row. It makes no logical or mathematical sense.

dogball

05-18-2003, 04:17 PM

Crap- You are in Idaho correct?
Well, let me know when you are in town next
Thanks

Dante

05-18-2003, 04:19 PM

yep for now....trying to move back East....I miss it..will do dog..got a ton of relatives there...ill let you know..shoot me your email...so I can save it ..thanks dog

Journeyman

05-18-2003, 04:20 PM

I agree JJ ...I have used that formula...If a guy has 6 picks and he`s 0-4 not likey to go 0-6...all according to the time of games too...Or if he`s won ...Again you have to know the capper..

Dante said a mouthful , you don`t fade certain guys even if they are on fire...Dogball is the one that comes to mind immediately..Never fade DOGBALL...The guy has late inning voodoo magic if need be http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_eek.gif

I`ve seen his act too many times http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

raiders72001

05-18-2003, 04:22 PM

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> The guy has late inning voodoo magic if need be <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

lander

05-18-2003, 04:22 PM

What DuckStabber and Raiders said ..

this theory holds hold mathmatical advantage, so I suspect you would (on average) split the games you "fade" and lose on the vig.

The General

05-18-2003, 04:24 PM

Doubling up is key.

Show me any capper in any forum who on average hits 4 in a row ATS before losing or loses 4 in a row ATS before winning & i will show you a bit more about this strategy.

http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_cool.gif

raiders72001

05-18-2003, 04:26 PM

Some things that I'm reading here remind of people playing slots in Vegas. They watch a machine that hasn't hit in a while. They wait and watch someone feed the machine money. After the person walks away they run to the machine figuring the odds are with them. The machine has to hit now. http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_eek.gif

The General

05-18-2003, 04:27 PM

Some of us cant help it because you got things to learn. http://theprescription.infopop.net/infopop/emoticons/icon_razz.gif

Journeyman

05-18-2003, 04:30 PM

I ve played slots like three times in my life...Man nothing funnier than the fat lady outta quarters waiting for the change guy....Guarding it like a 10 dollar sundae http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_eek.gif

Banned4Life

05-18-2003, 04:30 PM

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> General's methods are actually pretty good. If you see a guy 3-0 in early bases and has 2 more to go, the worst you will do is 1-1 most of the time <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

This is about the biggest bunch of crap I've ever heard. So just because a guy is 3-0 so far today means he can't go 5-0? That his chances of winning his next 2 games are less BECAUSE of his record in the first 3? That you actually think you can predict exactly WHEN a hot capper will suddenly turn cold??? I'm so glad there are guys out there who think like this keeping the sports books in business. http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_rolleyes.gif

The General

05-18-2003, 04:32 PM

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Show me any capper in any forum who on average hits 4 in a row ATS before losing or loses 4 in a row ATS before winning & i will show you a bit more about this strategy.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Damnit, I said i wouldnt argue this. http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

Journeyman

05-18-2003, 04:34 PM

Banned ...that is one approach...Let me give another scenario, a little longer approach...

Lets say a capper who is known well in the sports forums and is tracked by The recordkeeper..Lets say he starts the first two months of the NBA season 50-30 ...

Now that could be fade time...

dogball

05-18-2003, 04:34 PM

Dante- You have mail

JMAN- LOL , funny stuff, thanks

Raiders-
Re the slots and roulette- COmpletly agree. It is an intersting approach general is talking about, and I dont mean this as a slap to him but if he feels that way he should be booking. In sports betting it might have legs though. It is also surprising that general offers plays of his own in the picks forum if he is playing as stated above. In a lot of cases the book is going to win- in the long run, we both know that. Now general you are expressing that doubling is the key here, but at the same time say you have a limited bankroll. How far out will you take it if someone does go 5-0. Will you ride it out or pass and take the hit?

05-18-2003, 04:35 PM

I love fading the perennial losers here at the rx, but even posters like rx-maniac can get on temporary hot streaks. One should never bet against someone who is hot, not even MFG.. Wait until they lose some. Betting against someone who posts 5 plays and is 4-0 is just plain stupid and don't even come with the due theory or law of averages.

raiders72001

05-18-2003, 04:40 PM

I agree with J2 here. If a guy has just gone 4-0 and you put a gun to my head and say this next play determines your life I'll say the guy will win. I will always play a streak.

Banned4Life

05-18-2003, 04:41 PM

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> Lets say a capper who is known well in the sports forums and is tracked by The recordkeeper..Lets say he starts the first two months of the NBA season 50-30 ... <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

And why choose this ARBITRARY point to start fading him? He could just as easily improve to 60-35 before turning cold. Or he may not turn cold before the end of the season... there are cappers who have compiled incredible records for entire seasons. Or better yet... Billy Walters could be posting his picks anonymously and you'd end up fading him straight to the poorhouse.

And I won't even get into what happens if you find more than one "fadable" capper, and they disagree on a game.

raiders72001

05-18-2003, 04:42 PM

Dog and Genera- The doubling theoury is very dangerous.

The General

05-18-2003, 04:43 PM

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> It is also surprising that general offers plays of his own in the picks forum if he is playing as stated above. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

2 different worlds. I will post plays that i like, not necessarily all that I am playing.

If i see any capper post 3 or 4 losers in a row, then i would likely play a unit on the next game & double up for a couple thereafter for a couple games.

One must also understand that it is the trends that you are playing, not a particular capper all of the time. By playing on several cappers, one does not need to chase any one capper to the brink of a big loss. If maniac would hit 6 in a row, then why bother trying to chance more losses on him. There are others working for you at the same time.

The General

05-18-2003, 04:45 PM

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by raiders72001:
Dog and Genera- The doubling theoury is very dangerous.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

But, there is no need to instill all of your plays in one player. Use several & back of off the one who wins/loses past a comforting margin.

dogball

05-18-2003, 04:46 PM

Raiders-
posted May 18, 2003 07:40 PM
I agree with J2 here. If a guy has just gone 4-0 and you put a gun to my head and say this next play determines your life I'll say the guy will win. I will always play a streak

Completly agree, i would walk the plank the same way..

also
Lets just say this is an understatement!!

" The doubling theoury is very dangerous"
Especially on a tight roll
Good luck

raiders72001

05-18-2003, 04:52 PM

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>" The doubling theoury is very dangerous"
Especially on a tight roll
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

05-18-2003, 04:53 PM

You do have to know the capper before you fade. I have tracked the Rx-Maniac through all sports and have determined he is a perinnial loser. He got destroyed in the MLB, NFL and College Hoops and Football, but you even at the start of each of those sports I gave him a chance to prove he didn't suck at sports betting. He started off bad in all of them and I faded all throughout the seasons, but this NBA season he started off quite well.. After I lost 3 games in a row fading him, I stopped until I felt he would cool off. HE did great the first 3 months of the season. About midway through the NBA season he started back to picking roughly 50-50 and since I know his betting tendencies I figured he would go cold as much as he was hot early on. Talk about cold, he dropped 900 units in about 3 months. This MLB I gave him another chance, but this time I didnt start fading him constantly right away.. He started off good and was nailing totals and then starting losing ground again, but up to this far since he barely posts anymore I'm not sure what Im going to do with his picks when he posts again. He has been also known for the ole hidden ball trick a few times this year. To fade properly IMO you must know the capper and his tendencies and you will be successful.

raiders72001

05-18-2003, 04:59 PM

You can also help the fading process along with proper prodding. See MFG

Fishhead

05-18-2003, 05:02 PM

NEVER fade the following

BRETT
FISHHEAD
McIRISH

This would lead to poverty.

The General

05-18-2003, 05:07 PM

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Does anyone here FADE a capper after they`ve been on fire? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

It is much more complicated than that.

If i were to read that and think of one capper, i would say No.

SECprophet

05-18-2003, 10:49 PM

Hate to say it, but if anyone knows when to fade a capper its J2. He makes me look like a clown at his J2FI, yet he always knows when not to play my winners...http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_frown.gif

J2 is the resident fade-expert IMO.

gl

raiders72001

05-18-2003, 11:06 PM

I'd also add Don Marco and Hammy as a fade experts. There are also a couple still in training at the J2fi that should be ready by football season.

Journeyman

05-18-2003, 11:08 PM

I should have worded it a "streaking capper" either way...

raiders72001

05-18-2003, 11:08 PM

DickyW is good at spotting the <hidden ball trick> from the posters that are faded.

jwunderdog

05-19-2003, 06:41 AM

I fade several bad cappers but not good ones. The theory to fade someone that is hot is statistically insignificant. FOr every poster you see on this site that goes 4-0, there is another poster at another site that went 0-4 and the fifth wager they have bet the same way so what do you do? Forget betting on streaks, just find the consistantly worst capper and fade them blindly. http://therxforum.com/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif GL

"Only one thing more consistant then a good capper and that's a bad one."

RDC

05-19-2003, 03:22 PM

Wagerline.com is a great site for finding lousy cappers to fade. I usually look for someone thats hitting 49% or less on sides or Totals. Then I wait for them tohave a good day...by that I mean hiiting 75% or better....then the following day, I fade them. This has made me about 10 units a month during baseball season starting in May.