Boxing Mosley-Vargas Bet 7/15

[charleslanger]

Right now, scalps can be had on this Saturday's Mosley-Vargas fight.

We will pass up on that because we feel Mosley will eventually knock out Vargas...probably middle to late rounds.

However, we want to bet in hedge mode: both in case of a fluke, and IFFFF our analysis is errrrrrrroneous...man that was hard to type.

Vargas was totally exposed by the smaller DeLaHoya long ago-- whatever little talent he had he wasted by instead emphasizing steroids & bullying tactics over boxing/hard work/endurance/fitness. His boxing skills & stamina are totally eroded, as far as the elite, top echelon levels are concerned.

If Mosley is in shape & has not eroded, he should take him to school boxing-wise, gradually wearing him down until rendering him completely out of gas.

SO, we're looking & HOPING to find a scalp in the following 2 bets:

Mosley Win...-170 best spotted so far...

UNDER(11½ & 12 being offered) + 165 highest seen.....

The under protects Mosley bet...should Vargas get lucky. But there is NO way on this earth he does ALL THREE of these: outbox Mosley, NOT knock him out, AND go the distance.

We should collect on both bets.

We are also concerned that we will NOT get the necessary odds movements in our favor...

We'll keep monitoring developments.........

[boxlocks]

Who's we?

:think2:

[charleslanger]

Who's we?

:think2:
CUT!!!! You left out the last word: suckah. Then 'OUR' answer'd be: Why, Smith, Wesson, and I!!!

OK! Let's try that back from the top-- with feeling! Places everyone! AND...........ACTION!!!!!!!!!!!

[charleslanger]

'WE' will be in public office one day-- as such we try to build consensus AND be all-inclusive. WE don't lecture down, but instead suggest thru leading by example(our bankroll)...WHILE being open to constructive criticism & suggestions: LEARNING FROM YOU-- which may lead to audibling / adopting one of YOUR suggestions instead-- if it sounds like a better choice / solution than ours.

VERY RARELY can yours truly see the whole picture re a particular event, so TOGETHER WE, YOU AND I, "WILL" GROW OUR COLLECTIVE BANKROLL.

And actually, SOON we will start A PUBLIC BETTING HEDGE FUND...updated right here on-forum-- trying to figure out the best way to 'painlessly & efficiently' start it & keep it updated from among the various books & daily bets. :103631605 :toast: :money8:

[boxlocks]

Sorry I asked

:nohead:

[charleslanger]

Sorry I asked

:nohead:
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=373723&cc=5901 :dancefool

[boxlocks]

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=373723&cc=5901 :dancefool


I've seen enough in this thread to know I'm not interested in that link no matter how many dancing fags you put beside it...sorry

[charleslanger]

OK: Dutch both these @ 5dimes:

25911</TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" nowrap="nowrap">S.MOSLEY POINTS HANDICAP</TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">-4 -115 <INPUT type=checkbox value="2203569_S_Jul 11 2006 10:31:28:670PM" name=SelLine></TD> (any KO is a winner)<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" colspan="2" nowrap="nowrap"> </TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> </TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> </TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">
<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" nowrap="nowrap">1912</TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" nowrap="nowrap">FIGHT WONT GO DISTANCE</TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> </TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" colspan="2" nowrap="nowrap"> </TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">+155 <INPUT type=checkbox value="2256906_M_Jul 11 2006 10:22:06:030PM" name=SelLine></TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"></TD></TD>

The ratio is 57-43 respectively... OR
$137 on the first prop for each $100 on the second prop... OR
$73 on the second prop for each $100 on the first....

In other words, the first prop needs to have 37% more bet on it.

[charleslanger]

OK: Dutch both these @ 5dimes:

25911 S.MOSLEY POINTS HANDICAP -4 -115 (any KO is a winner)
1912 FIGHT WONT GO DISTANCE +155

The ratio is 57-43 respectively... OR
$137 on the first prop for each $100 on the second prop... OR
$73 on the second prop for each $100 on the first....

In other words, the first prop needs to have 37% more bet on it.

[charleslanger]

For those who watched or know how first fight between these two transpired, here are the likely strategic adjustments for each, as well as any other pertinent points-- training notes, what have you.

Firstly: both camps will surely have complained to both the present ref & powers that be about the other fighter's tactics: Mosley about Vargas' wrestling/pushing/manhandling, Vargas about Mosley's excessive clinching & head butting. SO......we look for ref to keep these well-separated...advantageous to Mosley.

Mosley:

He obviously will look to box & move side to side more, jab much more- double & triple up on it, followed by multi-combinations...rather than just stand there looking to trade & establish power early, as in first fight. He will not want to give the slower Vargas a chance to get in and push him around like last time, and will want to work on his stamina.
In other words, he did not fight his fight last time, thus he will look to return to his normal / earlier style-- & this is 'precisely' what will occur because his father is back in his corner! His father has him working on all these things in "15 round" sparring sessions.

Vargas:

His trainer is working on improving his speed-- de-emphasizing weight training, & having him jab much more. He wants him tocome in, duck/roll/move his head more to avoid Moseley's right, jab, & throw combos to the body. He wants him to come at Moseley early and take the fight to him. He wants him close to Mosley to negate his right...to not stay at a distance & be target practice for Mosley's quickness. And Vargas himself is under a lot of pressure to produce in a big fight, after several losses to name guys.

Conclusion:

This fight should be fast-paced from the get go.

And it's Mosley who dictates the pace with his quickness & style. Vargas can work on his quickness & movement all he wants, but he is at an inherent disadvantage to his foe.
Much is made of Vargas coming on strong late in their initial fight, but he did not do much early-- or at least as much as he will be doing with the change in plans here.
Much is also made about the head butt in the first fight, but that occurred in the first round, & if he didn't eat so many rights throughout the fight, his eye wouldn't have been an issue.

Mosley, like Leonard vs Duran, did not fight an advantageous fight in the first meeting, but will be able to adjust & really embarass his foe.

On a bizarre/ludicrous note for Vargas: he's stated his face wasn't used to getting hit last time, so he's changed headgear during sparring so that it will get used to getting hit / eating leather. He's never been all together up top, so go figure.

We look for Vargas to wear down as the fight progresses-- both from absorbing punishment & from running out of steam chasing Mosley around.

IF we're wrong, then we're hedged: Vargas would take over and score a KO-- but no way the bigger & slower guy outworks/outdances/outquicks/out-staminas Mosley to earn the decision.

PS should Vargas score a KO here, prepare to make some serious money later on, as he will be utterly destroyed when he moves up in weight class: you'll be able to pick him to lose by KO.

G'luck.

[hailtothechief]

Very Good Figuring Here But I've Got One Question? The Slower Vargas Wins The Fight By K.o. How Much Do You Lose In Your Caculations With More Money Being Bet On The First Prop Bet. What Percentage About Thirteen Or Don't I Figure We'll

[charleslanger]

You make money even if... just over 7½ - 8½ % guaranteed profit...

Where you do NOT win:

1. Vargas win by decision

2. Moseley Decision Win by LESS than 4 total points of the three cards(4 pushes). Even if the decision is split, you have a chance to win if the other 2 cards' margins are 2/3+ each...

And just to clarify: this is NOT a hedge/middle bet for us: we like Mosley to win comfortably...it just so happens that we can partially protect/hedge & still guarantee profit if we lose. We hope to collect on both bets.

IF you give Vargas a strong chance AND feel he can go the distance PLUS earn the decision, then this bet may not be for you.

Here's another formula-- take YOUR preferred TOTAL bet amount & divide it BY our $237...whatever number you get, multiply thusly:

X 137 for the amount on Mosley prop

X 100 for the Not Go Distance prop

Examples:

you wish to bet a total $50. So, / 237 = .211 rounded.

137 X .211 = $29 rounded Total Payoff @ -115 = $54.22

100 X .211 = $21 rounded Pays @ +155 = $53.55



$1,000 / 237 = 4.22

137 X 4.22 = $578 @ -115 = $1,080.61

100 X 4.22 = $422 @ +155 = $1,076.10

If you're getting substantially different odds, just post them here.

GL

[kobefan08]

Who's we?

:think2:

me and charles :toast:

[charleslanger]

me and charles :toast:
:toast:
BOL

[charleslanger]

BoxingTimes Analysis (http://www.boxingtimes.com/previews/2006/060715mosley_vargas2.html)

[charleslanger]

26 cent scalp on the O/U....

[JohnnieC]

I'd really like to see Vargas win this one and get back on track, but I just can't see him beating Mosley.

[charleslanger]

I'd really like to see Vargas win this one and get back on track, but I just can't see him beating Mosley.
Neither can I.
I see Leonard vs Duran 2 or Hagler. Mosley did not fight a very smart / his usual-style fight the first time. And the things Vargas says he'll do: press the fight early, roll down & up when coming in, double/triple up on the jab & throw more combos, moving head & body side to side... he's gonna run out of steam quickly...as well almost ALL fighters say they'll DO those things-- it's real easy to SAY it.
And Vargas is shedding 25 lbs.....

Much is made of Vargas coming on strong last time-- that was two rounds only he did that.

We're hedged in case of KO should Vargas catch him-- but even then, he's not a one-punch KO artist...& the ref may not allow pushing/manhandling...DelaHoya really worked the ref well on this when Vargas tried that.
BUT this is why we put up the analysis...in case someone can convince us of something we're missing.......

The quicker man should dictate the pace here.

Oh, and what about Vargas: sparring to get used to getting hit in the face? Lost me with that one.

Best of luck with your betting here and always.:toast:

[boxlocks]

Harold Lederman had Mosley winning all of the first 3 rounds in the first fight. You can get Mosley -175 to be ahead on Harolds card after 3 rounds again tonight.

That might be a safer bet than Mosley straight at the same price

Last time the judged had it 86-85, 86-85, 85-86 despite the rest of the world seeing it 6-3 or 7-2. Obviously the pro-Vargas latino crowd was able to influence the scores, and it will be the exact same scenario this time.

The judges scorecards from the last fight should worry Mosley backers here

gl bl

[jimbo069]

Thanks Charles! Do not have to watch the fight? But you are 100 % RIGHT! Mosely will K.O. Vargas. A Lock if ever one? Mosely too Skilled and Smart. Vargas only Hope a 1-3 round Prayer Knock-Out? Mosely Boxes from 1-4 rounds as he keeps the jab peppering Vargases swollen eyes again. 6-9rds. mosely sets in to his combinations body-head side to side movement. From here the broken if still around Vargas has the ref. stop? Corner? Lights-Out $ Paid we are Happy Again!

[charleslanger]

Harold Lederman had Mosley winning all of the first 3 rounds in the first fight. You can get Mosley -175 to be ahead on Harolds card after 3 rounds again tonight.

That might be a safer bet than Mosley straight at the same price

Last time the judged had it 86-85, 86-85, 85-86 despite the rest of the world seeing it 6-3 or 7-2. Obviously the pro-Vargas latino crowd was able to influence the scores, and it will be the exact same scenario this time.

The judges scorecards from the last fight should worry Mosley backers here

gl bl
Thanks very much for that--- did take that into consideration when doing the -4 points...Vargas just 'looks' so dangerous compared to most his opponents-- like he can take them out at any time...maybe that also plays into the decisions. But you know,
1. I'm really looking for a Mosley shutout...but i could be wrong about so many things: ref favors Vargas style, Vargas' new game plan works, etc. & assuming I am wrong for the sake of argument, then:
2. From the expected changed battle plans for each fighter-- something has to give: somebody 'has' to run out of gas and also get hit a LOT.

Even though a substantial scalp can be had with the O/U, I'm nevertheless sticking big with Mosley.

BTW I'm real fascinated with how you've taken all sides here with guaranteed profit-- if you'd care to give a summary, it'd be very interesting. I was going to ask you in your thread, but didn't want to come off as looking to pick a snit or steal your thunder.

BOL tonight & always.:toast:

PS re Harold: maybe Vargas overwhelms early this time...If that could've been a + price, then maybe it could be hedged w/ a round prop or something.....thanks again.

[charleslanger]

Thanks Charles! Do not have to watch the fight? But you are 100 % RIGHT! Mosely will K.O. Vargas. A Lock if ever one? Mosely too Skilled and Smart. Vargas only Hope a 1-3 round Prayer Knock-Out? Mosely Boxes from 1-4 rounds as he keeps the jab peppering Vargases swollen eyes again. 6-9rds. mosely sets in to his combinations body-head side to side movement. From here the broken if still around Vargas has the ref. stop? Corner? Lights-Out $ Paid we are Happy Again!
Caveat: for me this is not a lock like say, DelaHoya's last fight..otherwise i'd bet straight Win, & that expected net on Mosley by KO.....but is a similar lock in the style of DelaHoya-Vargas: bet Delahoya & hedge with the Under to possibly collect both bets but still collect something if it goes to the cards. At Mosley's age & size he 'better' be A1 tonight-- & the fast-paced 15 round sparring sessions do inspire enough confidence to lay the 4 points.

BOL

[charleslanger]

What is he-- delusional & paranoid from drugs & steroids??!!!!?

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/boxing/news/story?id=2518605

[boxlocks]

The swollen eye was a hematoma caused by one single blow in which a blood vessel or vein is broken.

Since the swelling was obvious after the 1st round, its obvious that the initial swelling wasn't caused by all the right hands that landed later in the fight.

A headbutt in the first round caused the hematoma, and Mosley's quik right hand landing at will made the swelling much worse. I've seen the headbutt in the first round that caused the whole thing, it wasn't a big one but it doesn't have to be.

Its not a coincidence that Rahman's hematoma occured while fighting Holyfield, who used his head as weapon like it was his fist.


Btw, sorry for disturbing your thread, my bad

No hard feelings

gl bl

[charleslanger]

The swollen eye was a hematoma caused by one single blow in which a blood vessel or vein is broken.

Since the swelling was obvious after the 1st round, its obvious that the initial swelling wasn't caused by all the right hands that landed later in the fight.

A headbutt in the first round caused the hematoma, and Mosley's quik right hand landing at will made the swelling much worse. I've seen the headbutt in the first round that caused the whole thing, it wasn't a big one but it doesn't have to be.

Its not a coincidence that Rahman's hematoma occured while fighting Holyfield, who used his head as weapon like it was his fist.


Btw, sorry for disturbing your thread, my bad

No hard feelings

gl bl

I enjoy & learn a lot from your insights. The only thing i wonder is how Lampley & others say they never saw...I believe what you said re the butt btw.

[boxlocks]

Excellent job tonight Charles


Congrats

[jimbo069]

Charles ! As the Posts reads a Lock if ever there is one. 6 th Round K.O. Winner! L O C K

[charleslanger]

Excellent job tonight Charles


Congrats

Thank you boxlocks!
I got lucky-- I don't get too many strong opinions that often-- end up passing A LOT of fights. The lesser-known fighters especially, i do not have a clue on: wish i could be able to bet many more fights like you do: hopefully this sub-forum will help with that. That's why i sincerely mean i learn a lot from you.

Maybe i can look at next week's Baldomir fight-- but those odds are so lopsided.

All the best, look forward to your musings.

[charleslanger]

Charles ! As the Posts reads a Lock if ever there is one. 6 th Round K.O. Winner! L O C K
Tally-ho! What prop did you bet-- & what odds did you grab, if i may ask?

YOU really called it on the button...no way was I even remotely THAT sure. Congrats to YOU!!!!!!!

[Uno]

Nice night Charles...

[charleslanger]

Nice night Charles...
Thank you, Doc!

BOL always.

[boxlocks]

Thank you boxlocks!
I got lucky-- I don't get too many strong opinions that often-- end up passing A LOT of fights. The lesser-known fighters especially, i do not have a clue on: wish i could be able to bet many more fights like you do: hopefully this sub-forum will help with that. That's why i sincerely mean i learn a lot from you.

Maybe i can look at next week's Baldomir fight-- but those odds are so lopsided.

All the best, look forward to your musings.


Thanks for the kind words...hope I can be more of a help in the future

The Gatti-Baldomir line was a unique situation where 5dimes opened their own number early and as usual it was way off. Along with a few other guys at madjacksports, I got Baldomir at +400 before they realized just how bad the line was. So I'm in the drivers seat now with Gatti at -190 at most shops.

My biggest play on this fight is Baldomir +17.5 points -115 as posted at the other forum. Unfortunately, and as predicted, the line has moved substancialy to +14.5 -115...I still see some value there but wouldn't play at less than 14 points. The fights in Gatti's back yard and hosted by his promoter so you can expect some favoritism here. But I expect this to be a very close fight, esp after Gatti hurts one or both of his hands.

Also played the Gatti-Baldomir Draw at +2500...very small


gl Charles...let me know if you ever want my opinion or have any questions on the fight game

bl

[charleslanger]

boxlocks (http://forum.therx.com/member.php?u=36667) vbmenu_register("postmenu_3026532", true);
RX Member

Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Middle of Nowhere
Posts: 389


http://forum.therx.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by charleslanger
Thank you boxlocks!
I got lucky-- I don't get too many strong opinions that often-- end up passing A LOT of fights. The lesser-known fighters especially, i do not have a clue on: wish i could be able to bet many more fights like you do: hopefully this sub-forum will help with that. That's why i sincerely mean i learn a lot from you.

Maybe i can look at next week's Baldomir fight-- but those odds are so lopsided.

All the best, look forward to your musings.



Thanks for the kind words...hope I can be more of a help in the future

The Gatti-Baldomir line was a unique situation where 5dimes opened their own number early and as usual it was way off. Along with a few other guys at madjacksports, I got Baldomir at +400 before they realized just how bad the line was. So I'm in the drivers seat now with Gatti at -190 at most shops.

My biggest play on this fight is Baldomir +17.5 points -115 as posted at the other forum. Unfortunately, and as predicted, the line has moved substancialy to +14.5 -115...I still see some value there but wouldn't play at less than 14 points. The fights in Gatti's back yard and hosted by his promoter so you can expect some favoritism here. But I expect this to be a very close fight, esp after Gatti hurts one or both of his hands.

Also played the Gatti-Baldomir Draw at +2500...very small


gl Charles...let me know if you ever want my opinion or have any questions on the fight game

bl
http://forum.therx.com/images/statusicon/user_online.gif http://forum.therx.com/images/buttons/report.gif (http://forum.therx.com/report.php?p=3026532) BL, thank you so much for your insights.
WOW! You've really raped this fight! If that's not a scalping with middling with beating steam lesson, i don't know what is!

Thanks again for your kind offer too.