Boxing 7/14 - 7/15

[boxlocks]

Played these so far...

Mosley-Vargas Over 11.5 -163...average

Mosley by decision +150...small

Vargas by decision +300...small

Mosley-Vargas Draw +2000..very small


Believe it or not, I'll be adding at least one more play to Mosley-Vargas

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[boxlocks]

Mosley-Vargas II
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1d1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Mosley's speed early, against Vargas' size and power late...a tale of two fights

I expect this fight to go exactly like the first one, but without the giant hematoma around Vargas' eye. We all know there will be plenty of headbutts in this one, so we have to hope they don't do as much damage this time. Maybe Mosley will get the worst of it, but I dought it.

Anyway, barring any early cuts or swelling, I think Mosley and his quick right hand will dominate the early rounds, while Vargas' size and power will wear Shane down by the 8th or 9th round and he'll dominate the rest of the fight. The question is, will Mosley win enough rounds early to seal the deal?

I don't expect either guy to go down in this fight, unless Vargas' making weight effects his stamina and he gets exhausted. I don't see Vargas stopping Mosley either, even if he wears Shane down late in the fight, he won't have enough left to finish him off. Shane has a great chin and a ton of heart, he'll go the distance here.

The 3 most important things to remember from the their first fight...

1) As mentioned at madjacks, the swelling in the first fight was caused by a headbutt in the first round, not a punch

2) Despite a huge swelling over Vargas' eye from the beginning of the fight, the scores were 85-86, 85-86, 86-85 going into the 10th round and Vargas was coming on big time despite the huge handicap

3) After the fight, Mosley was physically spent and kept talking about how Vargas was pushing him around the ring and that it was time for him to go back to 147. At that time he wanted no part of a rematch with Vargas, but the $$$ talked and here we are

Mosley is 34...Vargas is 28 and took 2004 off


I'll have more on this later after I make my final plays

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[GreenDoberman]

Thanks Boxlocks,
Win or lose I always enjoy your posts.

[boxlocks]

Adding

Mosley in rounds 10-12 +1150...very small


Just in case the weight loss effects Vargas' stamina

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[boxlocks]

Adding

7/15

Sidorenko-Kratingdaeenggym Over 11.5 -310...average


Parlay

Sturm over Castillejo -1150 / Mosley-Vargas Over 6.5 -575...(-375)...average


Pending Parlay

Wright-Taylor Over 9 -580 (winner) / Sturm over Castillejo -1150...(-375)...average


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[boxlocks]

Adding

Harold Letterman special at Bet365

Mosley ahead after 3 rounds -175...average


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[TTinCO]

Mosley-Vargas Draw +2000..very small

VERY smart CYA play. I do the same in 99% of my boxing plays. I don't see how you can't.

[Uno]

VERY smart CYA play. I do the same in 99% of my boxing plays. I don't see how you can't.

I agree TTinCO... I am always shocked at the number you can get right up to fight night on the draw...

[williemcgee]

I really like the Mosley ahead after 3 bet, his quickness should allow him to own the early rounds as in the first fight.

I think the draw is a good bet also, I think they are pretty evenly matched fighters.

My main play is on the over 11.5 rounds, small on draw, small on Mosley decision.

GL