Service Plays Sunday 9/28/08

[Can'tPickaWinner]

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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Dr. Bob NFL

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->2 NFL Best Bets this week and one Strong Opinion.

Rotation #199 Houston (+7 1/2) 2-Stars at +7 or more.
Rotation #203 San Francisco (+5) 2-Stars at +4 or more.

Rotation #205 Atlanta (+7) Strong Opinion at +7 or more.

As always, the analysis of the rest of the games can be found on my site at drbobsports.com in the free analysis section (use the menu and look under football to NFL and over to Free Analysis or use the game link at the bottom of the NFL page.

2 Star Selection
** Houston 24 JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 28-Sep-08
I’ll take Houston in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.

2 Star Selection
** San Francisco 26 NEW ORLEANS (-5.0) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 28-Sep-08
I’ll take San Francisco in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 or more.

Strong Opinion
Atlanta 19 CAROLINA (-7.0) 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 28-Sep-08
I’ll probably regret passing on the Falcons as a Best Bet, but I’ll consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion in this game at +7 or more.
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

SCOTT FERRALL

NFL Free Picks for week Four

KC +9 as home dog to Broncos--everyone will be betting on Denver--it smells like a cover--not a win--but they might just get the backdoor cover or be in this one at Arrowhead even though they suck

JAX -7.5 to Texans--Divisional game and the Jags are coming off a good win in Indy. Jones-Drew runs down Houston's throat

JETS -2 to Arizona--Favre has no problem with the Cardinals secondary. Zona and aWarner will be in it, but I think New York will finish them off in the 4th qtr

Saints -5.5 to 49ers--New Orleans gets to party at home against San Fran. The Saints defense is the difference here. Brees will do his thing, even with Shockey out of the lineup

Green Bay +1 from Tampa--Packers steal one on the road. Rodgers has been consistent for the Pack and I think he's better than Griese

St.Louis +8 from Buffalo--Trent Green wings it hard and has everything to gain if he puts on a good showing. Everyone will be quick to pounce on the Bills because they are 3-0, but watch them play down to the Rams level and turn the ball over a couple of times indoors

[Can'tPickaWinner]

WILD BILL

Browns +3 1/2 (5 units)
Over 45 Arizona-Jets (5 units)
New Orleans -6 (5 units)
Atlanta +7 (5 units)
Titans -3 (5 units)
Packers +1 (5 units)
Washington +12 1/2 (5 units)
Steelers -7 1/2 (5 units)

Added
Eagles -3 (5 units)

[Can'tPickaWinner]

allen eastman/ace-ace

$2000.00 Take ‘Under’ 44.5 Cleveland at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)

$800.00 Take ‘Over’ 42.5 Green Bay at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)

$2000.00 #211 Take Buffalo (-8) over St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)

$800.00 #215 Take Washington (+11.5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28)

$360 TO WIN $300 SWEETHEART TEASER: Take Washington (+21.5), ‘Under’ 54.5 Cleveland at Cincinnati, and Take Virginia Tech (+17)

TEASER AND WASH GAME WAS BET ON TUESDAY
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Phenom

Carolina
San Diego
Cleveland/Cincy Over
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Doug Williams NFL Picks Sept. 26

Washington Redskins (+11) to cover against Dallas Cowboys (-11) -- This line has been moving around quite a bit. While America loves the Cowboys, Doug loves winning money. Watch for this line to get even bigger as the week goes on. I still think the 'boys will win, but not in a blow out.

Baltimore Raves (+5) over the Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) -- Take the road dogs on MNF this week. The Ravens D is NASTY and will quite possibly eat Ben alive.

Arizona Cardinals (+1) over NY Jets (-1) -- Combined age of QBs in this game: 412 years old. I just can't get behind the Jets in this one.

New Orleans Saints (-5) Over the SF 49ers (+5) -- The Saints are going to do it at home this week with offence. I like how they play in the SuperDome.
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

NFL Week 4 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (6-3 = 66.7%)

213 San Diego Chargers at 214 Oakland Raiders

The public is overwhelmingly on San Diego in this match-up. The constant pounding of bets on San Diego (75% of sides and a huge 90% of teasers and parlays), has pushed the line off of the "key" number of 7. This is creating a nice value of Oakland +7.5 instead of the opener of +7.

We like cashing in on San Diego's impressive Monday Night win over the Jets. Oakland getting +7.5 points at home looks like a great value -- especially in a tough divisional match-up. Let's "bet against the public" and take the home dog.

Oakland Raiders +7.5 SportsInteraction +7.5

211 Buffalo Bills at 212 St. Louis Rams

Our offshore contacts circled this game due to Smart Money coming in on St. Louis. Including teaser and parlays, almost 80% of all bets are on Buffalo. Even so, early, and big Smart Money landed on St. Louis -- moving the line from its opener of Buffalo -9.5 to the more generally available -8. Our readers know that we will follow the Smart Money and especially like the big home underdogs.

St. Louis is 0-3 and has been outscored by almost 30 points per game this season. They weren't much better last year, going just 3-13. On the other hand, Buffalo has been "fast out of the gate," going 3-0. We often find value by taking the ugliest-looking games on the board and taking the ugly duckling. Last week, Miami showed us that on any given Sunday, anything is possible.

St. Louis Rams +8

195 Denver Broncos at 196 Kansas City Chiefs

This is our Pepto Bismol play of the day -- so take a shot of Pepto and put your hard-earned cash on KC. It goes against everything you think -- but that's exactly why these types of plays are profitable in the long run. Denver has started the season off 3-0, while KC is 0-3. This game looks ugly and the public is piling on Denver.

Almost 3 out of 4 "regular" side bets are coming in on Denver. The large point spread might be making some betters go to teasers and parlays -- where a huge, almost 90% of the bets are landing on Denver. In addition to our traditional philosophy of "betting against the public," we like this play for several other major factors:

KC is a huge home dog value, receiving 9.5 points.

Traditionally strong divisional rivalry.

We are "buying low" with KC and "selling high" with Denver.

Note also that both teams were mediocre last year. 9.5 points is a huge amount to cover.

Kansas City Chiefs +9.5 Skybook +9.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (6-3 = 66.7%)

Oakland Raiders +7.5 SportsInteraction +7.5
St. Louis Rams +8
Kansas City Chiefs +9.5 Skybook +9.5
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Hilton Contest Top 5 Week 4

This is week #4

Tennessee 115
San Fran 109
Baltimore 106
Tampa Bay 102
Washington 88

The leader is Fezzik, he picked: KC, Hou, Ariz, SF, Balt

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Wunderdog

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Green Bay at Tampa Bay (Sunday 9/28 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Green Bay +1 (-110)


Green Bay is a dog here? What?!? How soon people forget the Packers are 19-4 SU in their last 23 regular season games, and 19-0 SU vs teams not named Dallas or Chicago! I say this because at the beginning of the season most thought without Favre the Packers were headed south. That certainly has not been the case as Aaron Rodgers has simply shined. To this point of the season (yes, it's still early), he has been an upgrade at QB with a 102.9 rating and no INTs. To me, this guy looks to be for real. I say that not just based on the numbers. Watch him play, he works through his progressions like a vet, utilizing many different weapons, making it very difficult on opposing defenses. The emergence of Greg Jennings at wideout gives the Packers top recievers on both sides of the field. The Bucs defense is much softer than it has been in many years, and the only legit QB they have seen this season was Drew Brees who lit them up for 343 yards and three TDs. Brian Greise was run out of Chicago (and Denver before that) for a reason. He makes too many mistakes. He did it last week, throwing two INTs that almost cost the Bucs the game. Against a better opponent like Green Bay, it will. Don't be fooled - Brian Griese is not a savior, nor a long-term starting QB in this league. The difference between these teams is that Green Bay and Rodgers take care of the ball and in a close game, mistakes are deadly. Greise has shown a penchant for delivering those mistakes time and time again. I'll go with the Packers and Rodgers, over Griese. The Pack are still surprisingly under the radar despite winning 19 straight vs all but two teams and posting a 13-4 ATS mark on the road under their current coach. We get exceptional value on them thanks to their loss to a superb Dallas team last week. Wrong team favored in this one.
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Pointwise Phone Plays

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->2* Buffalo
2* San Francisco
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Spylock

3* Arizona +1.5

[uscmd]

Week 4

Entire field, though probably could have limited it to top 25


WEEK 4-Updated September 26, 2008- All Contestants Contestant Name Wins Loss Ties Sel1 Sel2 Sel3 Sel4 Sel5
All Contestants - Selection Recap Selection # of Times Selected

TEN -3 115
SF +6 109
BAL +7 106
TB -1 102
WAS +11 88
ARI +2 82
HOU +7.5 80
PHI -3 79
SD -7.5 76
CAR -7 75
MIN +3 69
KC +9 64
CLE +3.5 63
GB +1 59
CHI +3 57
DEN -9 51
NYJ -2 51
STL +8 50
NO -6 49
CIN -3.5 48
ATL +7 45
OAK +7.5 45
JAX -7.5 44
BUF -8 41
PIT -7 38
DAL -11 29


Top ** Contestants Contestant Name Wins Loss Ties Sel1 Sel2 Sel3 Sel4 Sel5

FEZZIK . 14 1 0 KC HOU ARI SF BAL.......leader

KING OF CRUNK . 13 2 0 CLE SF TEN TB CHI
THE BETTING DOCTOR.COM 12 3 0 KC ATL TEN WAS CHI
MORLEY THE FIFTEENTH 12 3 0 CLE HOU ARI CAR MIN
LONDO . 12 3 0 KC HOU ARI SF BAL
MICHAEL MAROTTA 12 3 0 DEN CLE ATL TB BUF
L.V. HUSTL3RS . 12 3 0 DEN CAR GB SD PHI
LONESTAR COBRA . 11 4 0 HOU ARI TEN CHI BAL
VEGASPORTSLINE .COM 11 4 0 ARI TEN TB WAS BAL
DR.B AND DR. SAUCE 11 4 0 KC CIN SF TEN DAL
WILLIAM CLARKSON 11 4 0 CLE ARI MIN TB BAL
MACKENZIES . 11 4 0 CLE ARI MIN TB BAL
YOU'RE NOT THAT GOOD 11 4 0 HOU SF TEN PHI BAL
SLICK 50 . 11 4 0 SF CAR TEN WAS PIT
DEREK & THE DOMO 11 4 0 DEN JAX NO TEN BAL
ET . 11 4 0 CIN TB STL DAL PHI
A AND L PICK'S . 11 4 0 CLE SF CAR MIN WAS
LYNXLY . 11 4 0 KC HOU ARI SF BAL
BRISKI . 10 5 0 JAX CAR BUF WAS PHI
BLUE THUNDER . 10 5 0 ARI ATL TEN BUF PHI
REYROB . 10 5 0 JAX CAR GB OAK PHI
DURBIFY . 10 5 0 KC HOU NYJ TB WAS
WOOD . 10 5 0 CLE HOU CAR TB CHI
LEO SHAFTO . 10 5 0 KC CAR MIN TB CHI
RUSSIAN 1 . 10 5 0 HOU SF ATL TB BAL
RUSSIAN 2 . 10 5 0 HOU SF ATL WAS BAL
JAXTERSPIX.NET . 10 5 0 CIN TEN SD DAL BAL
RELENTLESS PURSUIT 10 5 0 ARI SF MIN TB PHI
BALD EAGLE . 10 5 0 CIN JAX GB OAK PIT
ACK ACK . 10 5 0 ARI NO TEN TB BUF
LEXI . 10 5 0 KC CLE TEN OAK BAL
THE WATER BUFFALOES 10 5 0 ARI NO CAR TEN PHI
ERWINS . 10 5 0 KC HOU SF OAK BAL
IRISH SAMOA . 10 5 0 ARI GB BUF DAL PHI
THREE OUT OF FIVE 10 5 0 NYJ CAR TEN WAS BAL
JAS . 10 5 0 CLE NYJ ATL CHI PIT
BACKDOORED . 10 5 0 CAR TEN STL SD PHI
J&B ENTERPRISE . 10 5 0 NYJ ATL TEN TB WAS
ZOESBEGEEZER DAD 10 5 0 DEN TEN TB SD BAL
"638 FOREVER" . 10 5 0 HOU SF MIN TB BAL
SUNDOWN . 10 5 0 HOU ARI SF ATL BAL
OTIS . 10 5 0 ATL TEN GB SD BAL
BARTHOLOMEW SIMPSON 10 5 0 KC CLE SF GB PIT
NOAHS ARC . 10 5 0 KC HOU MIN STL BAL
MRVEGASWINS .COM 10 5 0 HOU SF ATL WAS BAL
COLLOSSEUM 2 . 10 5 0 DEN CIN CAR TEN CHI
COLLOSSEUM 1 . 10 5 0 DEN CIN CAR TEN SD
WESTCHESTER MECHANICS 9 6 0 HOU ARI SF TEN BUF
AYE . 9 6 0 CAR SD DAL PHI BAL
FIRST CLASS MIKE 9 6 0 DEN NYJ TEN GB WAS
HULA BOY . 9 6 0 CIN CAR TB SD PIT
TEAM WILLIS . 9 6 0 JAX TEN GB SD CHI
TGCAC . 9 6 0 HOU SF MIN STL BAL
TOO OLD PROS . 9 6 0 ARI SF MIN TB PHI
NIAGA2991 . 9 6 0 ARI NO TEN TB BUF
TOUCHDOWN . 9 6 0 CIN ARI CAR TEN BAL
G. ABREGO . 9 6 0 DEN CIN HOU ARI MIN
TREE TOP TIPS . 9 6 0 CLE HOU ARI CAR TEN
JOHN KWAN . 9 6 0 SF ATL WAS PHI BAL
DACHEETAH JAIALAI 9 6 0 NYJ SF BUF DAL CHI
J.R. A.R. . 9 6 0 DEN SF GB BUF PHI
JOHNNYBO.COM . 9 6 0 JAX ARI SD PHI BAL
KCEXTREME . 9 6 0 JAX NO TEN SD PIT
ABCBAIL . 9 6 0 NYJ NO GB SD PHI
THINKIN LIKE BINKIN 9 6 0 DEN JAX SF ATL MIN
FRANK GAUDIANE . 9 6 0 ARI MIN WAS PHI BAL
MONEY LINE . 9 6 0 KC TB OAK CHI BAL
BUSHWHACK . 9 6 0 KC CAR STL CHI BAL
ITALIAN ICE . 9 6 0 HOU NO CAR SD BAL
PR SPORTS . 9 6 0 ARI TB STL WAS PIT
HOWZIT . 9 6 0 No Ticket
BLONDIE 89103 . 9 6 0 ARI SF CAR PHI PIT
THE EAGLE . 9 6 0 DEN JAX ATL TEN DAL
BIG FIVE . 9 6 0 HOU ARI SF WAS BAL
UPON FURTHER REVIEW 9 6 0 DEN CIN CAR GB SD
TIGER JAM . 9 6 0 KC HOU SF TEN SD
SCOTTY DOESN'T KNOW 9 6 0 KC HOU SF TB BAL
MATTHEW BORKOWSKI 9 6 0 DEN NO TEN TB STL
DR. LOU . 9 6 0 DEN MIN GB SD BAL
VIP WINNERS . 9 6 0 KC CIN TEN TB BAL
KM SPORTS . 9 6 0 ARI ATL OAK WAS BAL
STRAY BULLETT . 9 6 0 KC CLE CAR CHI PIT
*********PAGE. COM 9 6 0 CAR TEN TB BUF SD
SUNDAY NIGHT . 9 6 0 DEN CIN CAR SD WAS
BLUE TEAM . 9 6 0 JAX NYJ NO CAR STL
ROCKSOLIDPICKS .COM 9 6 0 CIN NYJ TEN GB PHI
STYLIN' . 9 6 0 CLE HOU BUF WAS PHI
VEGAS.RUNNER & MARCO DANGELO 9 6 0 CLE HOU OAK DAL CHI
GETHEMONEY08 . 9 6 0 CIN JAX SF MIN SD
FUNHOUSE . 9 6 0 KC HOU STL SD BAL
RWM . 9 6 0 CLE SF TEN TB PHI
BRYAN ATHEY . 9 6 0 HOU NYJ CAR MIN WAS
TIMBUKTU . 9 6 0 ARI GB SD PHI PIT
PLUMB KRAZY . 9 6 0 DEN ARI CAR TEN SD
HUSKER NATION . 9 6 0 KC JAX ARI TEN SD
COPERNICUS . 9 6 0 ARI SF TEN TB BAL
BROKEN ARROW . 9 6 0 DEN TEN GB SD PHI
GORDON GEE . 9 6 0 CIN CAR SD PHI BAL
BET ON ME . 9 6 0 SF MIN WAS CHI BAL
TOANM . 9 6 0 JAX NO BUF OAK DAL
ROY WILSON 9 6 0 CLE ARI MIN TB WAS
TK . 9 6 0 NO TEN SD DAL PIT
BUCKEYE702 . 9 6 0 NYJ SF TEN TB BAL
ABEL . 9 6 0 ARI SF ATL OAK BAL
GRAYBEARDS . 9 6 0 CIN JAX NO WAS PHI
AMNESIA . 9 6 0 CIN JAX MIN SD PHI
IT'S CLOBBER ING TIME 9 6 0 CLE HOU SF TEN BAL
CAROLINE . 9 6 0 SF CAR MIN STL PHI
GAL GUSSO . 9 6 0 CLE NYJ NO TEN SD
VIEWFROMVEGAS .COM 8 7 0 KC ARI TB WAS BAL
3G-SPORTS . 8 7 0 KC CLE NO MIN OAK
MITSU-SAN . 8 7 0 CIN JAX TEN TB DAL
PREPAY . 8 7 0 HOU ARI CAR TB STL
DOUBLE R . 8 7 0 SF MIN GB WAS PIT
GAMBLING RATS . 8 7 0 CIN NYJ GB STL CHI
NATA'S . 8 7 0 KC HOU SF CAR TEN
THE FAR SIDE . 8 7 0 CIN CAR TEN GB WAS
JAMES BROWN . 8 7 0 DEN JAX TEN STL WAS
THE MOST . 8 7 0 DEN CAR TEN BUF WAS
MR. ROGER . 8 7 0 DEN TEN GB SD WAS
MAD ANM . 8 7 0 KC ARI NO BUF DAL
PREDICTEM.COM . 8 7 0 SF CAR MIN TB SD
BRUNO'S BOYS . 8 7 0 SF TEN GB BUF PHI
CHOPPER . 8 7 0 SF CAR TEN WAS BAL
SHARK SANDWICH . 8 7 0 JAX ARI BUF PHI BAL
THE SHARKS . 8 7 0 JAX NO CAR TEN TB
R2K2 . 8 7 0 SF ATL BUF WAS BAL
MADDUX SP . 8 7 0 KC HOU SF OAK BAL
DOCTOR G . 8 7 0 HOU NYJ TEN GB BAL
ANCIENT CHINESE SECRET 8 7 0 KC ARI TEN OAK BAL
MCLOVIN . 8 7 0 DEN SF GB SD PHI
ABI . 8 7 0 CLE ATL OAK WAS BAL
MAC SHANE . 8 7 0 TEN GB WAS PHI BAL
MASTER OF CHOOS 8 7 0 KC MIN TB STL WAS
DR. KING . 8 7 0 DEN CIN NO SD WAS
WIRE TO WIRE . 8 7 0 SF CAR STL CHI BAL
PURPLE AND GOLD 8 7 0 KC CIN CAR STL SD
AARDVARK . 8 7 0 CIN TB WAS CHI BAL
REDMEN . 8 7 0 CIN SF TEN CHI BAL
ZAARNAK . 8 7 0 DEN JAX NO BUF SD
CONTINENTAL SPORTS SERVICE 8 7 0 NYJ SF TEN SD PHI
BIG ANGIE . 8 7 0 CLE HOU SF CAR TEN
GLUTEN FREE . 8 7 0 SF ATL BUF OAK BAL
888 IS ENOUGH . 8 7 0 CLE HOU TEN GB WAS
DOUBLEDAWG . 8 7 0 KC CAR MIN STL PIT
G. D. . 8 7 0 DEN CIN JAX TEN SD
SHORELINE SCRUBS 8 7 0 KC CLE TB BUF CHI
FRANKB22 . 8 7 0 HOU NYJ SF TEN TB
RICO . 8 7 0 JAX NYJ NO TEN WAS
IONE'S SON . 8 7 0 ARI ATL TB OAK WAS
BOBBY BABOWSKI . 8 7 0 NO CAR GB SD PIT
DMACK SPORTS . 8 7 0 DEN ARI TEN GB SD
RED RYDER . 8 7 0 CLE SF TEN TB PHI
MAYO MCCUTCHEON 8 7 0 SF TB STL CHI BAL
CODY . 8 7 0 NYJ SF TB STL PHI
FRANKIE . 8 7 0 NYJ NO CAR STL CHI
DOUGIEFRESH . 8 7 0 ARI NO GB CHI PIT
SRG . 8 7 0 TEN BUF OAK WAS PHI
RAM66 . 8 7 0 KC CLE NYJ TEN WAS
BIG E . 8 7 0 MIN STL DAL CHI BAL
MK SPORTS . 8 7 0 CIN JAX NYJ NO CAR
PIGLET . 8 7 0 CLE HOU ARI TEN TB
ROB DEVLIN . 8 7 0 DEN NO TEN GB SD
TONY SMITH . 8 7 0 NYJ SF GB CHI PIT
PB&K . 8 7 0 JAX TEN TB WAS PHI
FAST EDDIE SPORTS 8 7 0 ARI SF ATL OAK CHI
ESQUIRE SPORTS . 8 7 0 ARI NO MIN SD CHI
GG . 8 7 0 KC NYJ TB OAK CHI
JJFL . 8 7 0 SF TEN TB SD PHI
INSIDESPORTS VIEW 8 7 0 NO TEN TB SD PHI
PREGAME.COM . 8 7 0 NO ATL TEN GB PHI
SIMPLY THE BEST 8 7 0 KC NYJ TEN TB STL
VALENTINO . 8 7 0 No Ticket
OCEAN RAY . 8 7 0 ARI SF TEN GB PHI
REVEREND RIGHT . 8 7 0 KC CLE HOU ATL BAL
ROGER HARRIS . 8 7 0 HOU SF CAR SD PHI
TONY SALINAS . 8 7 0 KC CLE OAK WAS CHI
CHAPPY . 8 7 0 CIN NO TEN GB SD
ICEMAN . 8 7 0 HOU SF ATL PHI BAL
MALSOR . 8 7 0 HOU NO GB WAS PHI
RONIN . 8 7 0 HOU NYJ SF STL WAS
MY BEST PICKS . 8 7 0 NO TB STL DAL CHI
ROY WILSON 8 7 0 CLE HOU ARI MIN CHI
JOJO . 8 7 0 NYJ ATL MIN TB BAL
FGH . 8 7 0 KC HOU NYJ CHI BAL
TAYLORANDSADIE . 8 7 0 CLE HOU CAR TB DAL
RBSPORTS . 8 7 0 CLE JAX TEN OAK DAL
VIDAL . 8 7 0 CIN NYJ NO TEN WAS
HIGHROLLERS TEAM.COM 8 7 0 DEN ARI MIN GB BAL
LANCAN . 8 7 0 ARI GB BUF PHI PIT
"THE FRONZ" . 8 7 0 KC NYJ ATL TEN STL
UNDERAGE GYMNASTS 8 7 0 CIN NO ATL MIN SD
SQUAREPANTS . 7 8 0 ARI GB BUF WAS BAL
130 BRIXX . 7 8 0 DEN CAR TEN BUF DAL
ADAMWINS.COM . 7 8 0 DEN TB OAK WAS PHI
SLY STONE . 7 8 0 CIN HOU TEN GB PHI
SPITGAME.COM . 7 8 0 DEN CIN TB STL BAL
THE CHOSEN ONE . 7 8 0 CLE NYJ TEN GB WAS
JHC III . 7 8 0 DEN ARI ATL SD BAL
HOLY COWS . 7 8 0 DEN CAR MIN BUF SD
DAVID MILLER . 7 8 0 CLE TB BUF WAS BAL
ROUGHING THE PICKER 7 8 0 KC NYJ CAR STL CHI
JARHEAD . 7 8 0 ARI ATL TB OAK BAL
SHAKE AND BAKE . 7 8 0 KC SF MIN TB CHI
MAGIC MAN + EL DIABLO 7 8 0 CIN TB OAK DAL PHI
MONKEY . 7 8 0 HOU ATL TEN OAK WAS
BUSKY . 7 8 0 KC CLE MIN TB WAS
PAPILLON . 7 8 0 ARI NO CAR MIN CHI
THREE AMIGOS . 7 8 0 KC ARI SF GB PHI
DASH RIPROCK . 7 8 0 JAX ARI CAR TB SD
DON JUAN OF THE YUKON 7 8 0 JAX TEN SD PHI BAL
SCOTT STOWELL . 7 8 0 HOU ARI CAR TB BAL
UGLY KID JOE . 7 8 0 NYJ SF CAR TEN GB
RICKJSPORTS PLAYS.COM 7 8 0 KC ATL MIN STL BAL
ROUNDERS . 7 8 0 CLE CAR TB OAK BAL
UPSET SPECIAL . 7 8 0 ARI TB STL OAK WAS
FROGTOWN SPORTS 7 8 0 KC CLE TB SD PIT
ANTHONY GEORGE 2 7 8 0 CLE SF GB WAS BAL
COMMISSIONER AND THE GURU 7 8 0 ATL TEN TB PHI BAL
H20 FIVE 0 . 7 8 0 ARI SF GB OAK WAS
LAVANG . 7 8 0 KC JAX NO GB WAS
HIT HIM IN THE FOOT 7 8 0 DEN HOU TEN TB STL
WIN BIG . 7 8 0 KC JAX MIN OAK WAS
POLSERITA . 7 8 0 CIN ARI NO WAS BAL
DADDY N DOUGHNUTS 7 8 0 DEN BUF SD DAL PIT
OKWATNAK . 7 8 0 JAX NYJ ATL TEN WAS
RAINBOW WARRIOR 7 8 0 JAX CAR TB PHI BAL
MICHAEL PIRANIO 7 8 0 KC NYJ SF STL OAK
BIG TONY . 7 8 0 KC ARI SF TB STL
GA . 7 8 0 DEN CIN SD WAS PHI
BIG LIB . 7 8 0 KC TB STL OAK PHI
SEAN LENAHAN . 7 8 0 CIN ARI NO GB PHI
TEAM FUBAR . 7 8 0 CAR BUF SD DAL CHI
KSHP . 7 8 0 CAR MIN SD CHI PIT
HAMPTONS . 7 8 0 CAR TEN GB BUF PHI
AL THE SLY . 7 8 0 CIN SF ATL TB BAL
FRAT BOYS . 7 8 0 KC CLE ARI TEN GB
TAKE OUT THE TRASH 7 8 0 KC CLE SF ATL OAK
PUT THE MONEY IN THE BAG 7 8 0 CLE NYJ SF MIN OAK
GRANT LINCOLN . 7 8 0 DEN CAR MIN GB PIT
PRINCESS HAIRY WARTS 7 8 0 JAX CAR SD WAS PHI
M + K TEAM . 7 8 0 DEN JAX TEN BUF SD
PIZZA MAN . 7 8 0 NO CAR TB PHI PIT
IBELIEVE . 7 8 0 KC CAR MIN TB SD
BLUTO . 7 8 0 DEN NYJ GB OAK PHI
E.M.H.J.F.C. . 7 8 0 HOU MIN STL DAL CHI
THE ULTIMATE DUO 7 8 0 CIN HOU NYJ SF STL
JOHN SINGLETON MOSBY 7 8 0 HOU ARI SF ATL BAL
THE FAMOUS JOHNNY C. 7 8 0 CLE NYJ MIN GB PHI
BLACK JACK . 7 8 0 HOU SF WAS PHI BAL
HOUSTON 1222 . 7 8 0 KC CLE SF TB CHI
ARTHUR GOLTZ . 7 8 0 DEN JAX TB SD DAL
DIAR . 7 8 0 JAX NYJ MIN SD PHI
22 PURPLE ROSE . 7 8 0 CIN ARI GB OAK DAL
ARI YAZ . 7 8 0 DEN JAX TEN BUF PHI
BEYOND CAPPING .COM 7 8 0 HOU SF TEN WAS BAL
BLMK . 7 8 0 CIN HOU SF GB SD
STRETCH . 7 8 0 ARI SF TB CHI BAL
BIGAL.COM . 7 8 0 CLE ARI MIN WAS BAL
ROCK ON RIDERS . 7 8 0 DEN CLE ARI GB PHI
MAXPESCATORI .COM 7 8 0 HOU ARI CAR TEN BAL
UAREALL DONKEYS 7 8 0 TB BUF WAS CHI BAL
NO COMPLAINTS NO EXCUSES 7 8 0 KC MIN STL CHI PIT
EAGLES FLY . 7 8 0 HOU ARI SF TB WAS
THE PRETZEL . 7 8 0 KC CLE HOU MIN STL
BOZO'S DEAD . 7 8 0 DEN HOU SF TB SD
EDGELINE . 7 8 0 HOU NYJ SF STL CHI
THE SANDMAN . 7 8 0 DEN CLE TEN OAK WAS
BLSSD FLISH TRMNTD 7 8 0 HOU SF MIN GB OAK
WHITE RAIN . 7 8 0 SF CAR TB BUF SD
PHILADELPHIA FREEDOM 7 8 0 STL OAK WAS CHI BAL
NAPKIN NIGHTS . 7 8 0 CLE JAX ATL MIN STL
JUSTPRO FOOTBALL.COM 6 9 0 CIN ARI CAR TEN CHI
ASIS . 6 9 0 DEN TB OAK WAS PHI
REYMAX . 6 9 0 ARI STL SD DAL BAL
JERSEY RED . 6 9 0 KC SF WAS PHI PIT
SEVEN GOLD . 6 9 0 NYJ NO SD WAS PIT
SEVEN RED . 6 9 0 NO TEN TB WAS CHI
D MILL . 6 9 0 HOU SF ATL TB BAL
EASTERNASSASIN S.COM 6 9 0 TB BUF SD WAS PHI
R. . 6 9 0 CLE SF ATL OAK BAL
MISTER P . 6 9 0 KC CLE SF MIN TB
SPARKS . 6 9 0 ARI SF CAR TEN PHI
RIVRATS . 6 9 0 DEN CIN NO TEN BUF
PSI . 6 9 0 KC SF MIN CHI BAL
BOGA DAVE . 6 9 0 CIN JAX ATL SD WAS
QUASIMODO . 6 9 0 NO TEN TB PHI BAL
JUMPIN JACK DOYLE 6 9 0 SF TEN WAS PHI BAL
DETROIT STARS . 6 9 0 JAX ARI CAR PHI BAL
DOS AMIGOS . 6 9 0 HOU TEN OAK WAS PIT
BEE TEE'S S.A.C. 6 9 0 MIN GB STL OAK WAS
54 PAGAN . 6 9 0 JAX TEN SD CHI BAL
BIG PICTURE . 6 9 0 CLE HOU NYJ STL CHI
INTRIGUE SPORTSCAP 6 9 0 ARI SF MIN BUF BAL
SUPER MIKE . 6 9 0 CLE ARI SF ATL TB
BROOKLYN DODGERS 6 9 0 JAX CAR MIN PHI PIT
MOTOR CITY MIKE 6 9 0 CIN ATL MIN TB WAS
CHINO . 6 9 0 ARI TEN BUF PHI BAL
TONY ZZZ . 6 9 0 CLE HOU ARI SF MIN
BLUEHORSESHOE SPORTS.COM 6 9 0 HOU NO CAR BUF SD
STEVE ARNTZEN . 6 9 0 DEN TEN GB WAS CHI
BUDMAN . 6 9 0 CIN TEN TB CHI PIT
BUDLADY . 6 9 0 CLE TEN SD CHI PIT
EXEC . 6 9 0 CLE NYJ NO CAR TB
MAX 1 . 6 9 0 HOU NYJ TB BUF WAS
MAX 2 . 6 9 0 HOU TB BUF WAS BAL
LONG HAIR . 6 9 0 CIN NYJ SF TEN GB
ICEMAN . 6 9 0 DEN HOU STL OAK BAL
DESPERATE HOUSEDOGS 6 9 0 HOU ARI SF STL OAK
THEACCOUNTANTS . 6 9 0 ARI NO CAR TEN TB
LOGAN'S HEROES . 6 9 0 CLE HOU SF TEN PIT
BROCKTON BOXER 6 9 0 DEN JAX SF DAL PIT
TCHGOLD . 6 9 0 KC CLE GB PHI BAL
BUCCANEER MIKE 6 9 0 CLE ARI BUF SD BAL
SLIM TIM . 6 9 0 HOU ATL TEN CHI BAL
BIG JAY SPORTS . 5 10 0 DEN TB OAK WAS PHI
ALIAS SPORTS . 5 10 0 CLE NYJ MIN STL WAS
O.C. DOOLEY . 5 10 0 CIN SF MIN TB CHI
BRAZ . 5 10 0 KC HOU MIN TB CHI
ON A MISSION . 5 10 0 KC CAR STL OAK WAS
BUCKY BADGER . 5 10 0 KC HOU TB STL BAL
DR. EVIL . 5 10 0 KC SF CAR TB BAL
KJW . 5 10 0 DEN CLE HOU SF CHI
BREAKBOOKIES HEART 5 10 0 ARI NO MIN TB DAL
EZ-PAKE . 5 10 0 MIN TB STL CHI PIT
CINEMA MATT . 5 10 0 CLE HOU SF ATL PHI
DAVE'S NOT HERE 5 10 0 DEN SF TEN SD PIT
DENALI 6293 . 5 10 0 CIN SF ATL TEN TB
FAT SQUARED . 5 10 0 JAX NYJ MIN WAS BAL
THE ROUNDERS . 5 10 0 No Ticket
SILVER FOX . 5 10 0 HOU NYJ TB STL CHI
DR. DAVIS . 5 10 0 CAR MIN SD DAL PIT
HOOSIERS . 4 11 0 KC NO TB SD WAS
ANTHONY GEORGE 1 4 11 0 HOU SF MIN WAS BAL
DANNY MONACO . 4 11 0 SF MIN DAL PHI PIT
TBALL . 4 11 0 DEN JAX TEN SD BAL
SULLY SPORTS . 4 11 0 KC HOU SF GB WAS
LOU-T . 4 6 0 KC NYJ MIN PHI BAL
MABEL . 4 11 0 ARI SF CAR SD PIT
ADAM ZINN. . 4 11 0 CIN ARI OAK DAL PIT
BARCELONA . 4 6 0 CLE NO MIN GB PHI
MUSHROOM STAMPER 4 6 0 No Ticket
ANGRY GOATS . 4 6 0 HOU SF CAR TEN SD
WILL PICKEM . 3 12 0 CLE ARI NO TEN PIT
KYONG . 3 12 0 ARI SF MIN WAS BAL
GATORSKINS . 3 12 0 NYJ SF MIN TB STL
SQUAREPANTS II . 2 13 0 CLE HOU ATL WAS BAL
BLINGERS BALLERS 2 3 0 No Ticket
JB ROCKS . 0 5 0 CLE HOU SF MIN TB

Top ** Contestants - Selection Recap Selection # of Times Selected

TEN -3 115
SF +6 109
BAL +7 107
TB -1 103
WAS +11 89
ARI +2 83
HOU +7.5 81
PHI -3 79
SD -7.5 76
CAR -7 75
MIN +3 70
KC +9 64
CLE +3.5 64
GB +1 59
CHI +3 57
DEN -9 52
NYJ -2 51
STL +8 51
NO -6 49
CIN -3.5 48
OAK +7.5 46
ATL +7 45
JAX -7.5 44
BUF -8 41
PIT -7 38
DAL -11 29

[badbyzdmx]

Titans
Bears
Bucs
Cardinals

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Tim Trushel

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->20* tampa bay
10* san francisco
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Cajun-Sports NFL Executive Report-Sunday

NFL: 17-8 (+28.20)


Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 28

Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Line Origin: BetCris @ 2:29 EST September 27

Grade / Prediction: 5* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1

Analysis:


Cigar City will be the site of the Battle of the Bay’s as Green Bay heads south to face the hometown Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon at Raymond James Stadium.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers look to bounce back from their prime-time defeat Sunday when they visit Tampa Bay, which is coming off an overtime victory that featured 67 pass attempts by Brian Griese.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was held without a touchdown pass in a 27-16 loss to unbeaten Dallas on Sunday night, Rodgers threw for 290 yards, ran for a score and remained without an interception this season. The latter could very well change against this aggressive Bucs defense on Sunday.

The Packer’s offense was held to three field goals of less than 40 yards, the Dallas defense was able to control the Rodgers led offense. Green Bay only rushed for 84 yards on 21 attempts and Rodgers was 22 of 39 for 250 yards in the loss. The Tampa defense will be looking to do the same here today and have the personnel to make it a long day for Aaron Rodgers and the Pack offense.

The Packers defense was torched by Dallas for 453 yards of offense, including 217 rushing yards. Tampa’s offensive unit is not as explosive as the Cowboys but they should be able to control the tempo of this contest and put enough points on the board to get the win and cover here.

We expect Tampa Coach Jon Gruden to utilize Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn, who have combined for 357 yards at 5.7 yards per rush this season. The Packer’s defense has surrendered 5.8 yards per rush on the season and both Graham and Dunn should be able to exploit their weak run defense.

Buccaneers QB Brian Griese threw the ball for an unbelievable 67 times against the Chicago Bears last week in their OT win. Even against a solid Bears defense Griese was able to average 6.1 yards per pass play so we feel confident in knowing that Tampa can throw the ball if the need arises against this Green Bay defense.

Tampa has also been solid at home when favored by 3 or more points, posting a record of 24-6-1 ATS their last 31 in this role. That record has been accomplished no matter who was under center for the Buc’s.

Our data base research has uncovered several strong technical factors that indicate a strong play on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in today’s contest.

This week’s Technical Situational Report shows Green Bay to be in a negative situation that says to Play Against favorites or underdogs of 7 or less points between Week 4 and Week 15 of the regular season that have a higher Offensive Holding Penalty Against average (ohpa) than their opponent. This situations record is 85-191 ATS since 2001. Season to date numbers for the Packers have them with a horrible OHPA of 3.33 and Tampa has a decent average of 2.33.

We also find the Packers in a negative situation that deals with Pass Defense Ratings matched up against their opponents Pass Offense Ratings. Green Bay’s Pass Defense Rating of +1.28 appears to match up well with Tampa’s Pass Offense Rating of -0.44 but when an advantage (Pass Offense) of at least +1 occurs as in this case this turns a possible positive situation into a huge negative for the Packers.

There are a few more parameters that must be met to make this situation solid, most importantly that the opponent of the team with the Pass Offense Advantage also has an above average Rush Offense Rating which the Bucs currently have a +1.11 in this contest. Add it all up and Green Bay falls into a negative situation that is 53-137-1 ATS since 1994 and 8-27-1 ATS the last two seasons.

One final situation looks at teams that are undervalued and have made huge improvements in their Rushing Offense from the previous season. As mentioned earlier Tampa’s Rush Offense Rating is currently +1.11 which is a vast improvement from last season’s rating of +0.24.

Green Bay’s Rush Offense Rating of only -0.13 also serves as a primary condition in this particular technical situation. This situation tells us to Play On Tampa Bay and the record for the situation is 135-52 ATS since 1994.

We have an NFL Power System that tells us In Game 4, play AGAINST a team (not a favorite of more than 11 points or underdog of more than 6 points) with a TOTAL over 41 points off a SU loss and allowing successively more points in each of its last 2 games. This System’s Play Against Team is the Green Bay Packers and the record for the system is 16-0 ATS since 1989 and averages covering the spread by 13.9 points per game.

The combination of Tampa’s home field advantage and the fact they have strong technical support makes them our 5* NFL Game of the Week selection for Week 4 of the NFL Season.

GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1






Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 28

Game: San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints

Line Origin: BetCris @ 7:20 EST September 27

Grade / Prediction: 4* San Francisco 49ers +5.5

Analysis:


The “Big Easy” will be the site for the clash between the hometown New Orleans Saints and the visiting San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon in the Louisiana Superdome. The Saints have won all four matchups since moving to the NFC South Division including a 31 to 10 defeat last season.

The past four meetings have been controlled by the Saints offense that has averaged 32.5 points per game during that span. The difference in this contest is San Fran’s defense holds a huge advantage over the Saints. They are only allowing 4.6 yards per plays while the Saints are allowing 6.3 yards per play this season.

If we compare the 49ers offensive and defensive YPP to the Saints we really see a huge advantage for San Francisco. San Fran’s YPP numbers on offense are 6.5 and on the defensive side of the ball they are 4.6.

The 49ers are much improved and could actually be 3-0 both SU and ATS this season as they outgained the Cardinals in Week 1 of the season but a turnover margin of 5 to 0 lead to their demise.

The 49ers offense has begun to click under the direction of offensive coordinator Mike Martz. He has taken an inexperienced QB in JT O’Sullivan and turned their passing attack into a force averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt this season.

This offensive prowess of the 49ers could be a huge problem for the Saints defensive unit as they are giving up over 27 points per game and nearly 400 yards per game of total offense. We believe a huge key for the 49ers will be time of possession as they are averaging 35 minutes per game using an elite RB in Frank Gore. The powerful Saints offense cannot score from the bench.

There are two technical angles that have importance in this contest the first is New Orleans is 29-52 ATS as home chalk and San Fran is 8-1 ATS with revenge against a team off two straight losses.

Our Technical Situational Report shows the 49ers in positive situations for today’s contest. First we Play On road teams with an average Field Goal Distance <31 on the year and an average starting field position not more than 5 yards higher than their opponents. The record for this situation is 66-16 ATS.

The second situation says to Play On teams with a POF Rating +1.5 or higher last season facing a team with a PWP <=.500 and the total for the game is at least 45. The record for this situation is 45-8 ATS since 1994.

We have one final situation that says to Play On teams with a season Penalty Yardage For average at least 20 points higher than their Penalty Yardage Against average and their opponent has a below average Rush Offense Rating. The record for this situation is 85-15 ATS since 1994.

Data base research has uncovered on NFL Power System that says In Game 4, play AGAINST a team (not a favorite of more than 11 points or underdog of more than 6 points) with a TOTAL over 41 points off a SU loss and allowing successively more points in each of its last 2 games. This system is 16-0 ATS since 1989 and averages covering the spread by 13.9 points per game.

With San Francisco’s YPP numbers better on both sides of the ball and significant technical and situational support we will make the San Francisco 49ers a 4* NFL Selection for Sunday.


GRADED PREDICTION: 4* San Francisco 49ers +5.5






Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 28

Game: Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans

Line Origin: BetCris @ 7:52 EST September 27

Grade / Prediction: 4* Tennessee Titans -3

Analysis:

The Vikings head to Nashville to face the hometown Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon. The Titans are 3-0 on the young season while Minnesota is just 1-2.

Minnesota finally made the change at QB benching the unimpressive and certainly not an NFL caliber quarterback in Tarvaris Jackson and going with Gus Frerotte. Not a huge improvement but they didn’t have any where to go but up.

Tennessee was forced to make a change at QB with starter Vince Young’s knee problems and his mental instability so they go with veteran Kerry Collins.

Collins was able to rally the troops and pull off a comeback victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars and then lead the team to a 24 to 7 win over Cincinnati a week later.

Tennessee’s offensive success can be attributed in large part to one of the league’s best tandem backfields in LenDale White and rookie Chris Johnson. These two have helped the Titans outscore their opponents by 14.3 points per game this season.

The Titans are known for their solid play on defense and that is true once again this season as they are holding opponents to just 240.3 yards per game in total offense and only 4.2 yards per play. These are very solid numbers and as you know we look closely at teams YPP and that helps us determine which teams are playing better on both sides of the ball.

Minnesota’s QB Gus Frerotte and RB Adrian Peterson will have to earn every yard against a Titans’ defensive unit that picked off Houston’s Matt Schaub three times in last week’s 31-12 victory. Cortland Finnegan brought back his league-leading fourth interception 99 yards for a touchdown. The unit is still anchored by linebacker Keith Bulluck, who scored a touchdown off a blocked punt in the win over the Bengals.

Vikings RB Adrian Peterson may not be at full speed this week as he has been bothered with a hamstring problem and is still not 100%. That is not a good sign for this Minnesota offensive unit. Frerotte was 1-2 last season with the Rams, throwing six touchdowns and ten interceptions. He is 38-44-1 overall as an NFL starter, not good news when facing a stout Titans defense.

On the technical front we see that the Titans are 23-10-1 ATS versus the NFC. They are also 11-4 ATS as non-conference home chalk, 15-3 ATS as a home favorite of three points or less. The Titans are 7-0 ATS when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Vikings are 9-18-1 ATS as non-division road underdogs. The Vikings are 0-8 ATS on the road after a double digit win in which they did not score in the first quarter at home.

The League is 7-27-1 ATS as a road dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. The League is 4-19-1 ATS as a road dog after playing at home in each of the previous two weeks.

The League is 43-17-3 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. The League is 22-5-2 ATS within 3 of pick when on a 3 game SU and ATS winning streak.

Our Technical Situational Report has uncovered a positive situation for the Titans. It says to Play On teams with a 2nd Down Pass Rating For >1.4 and an Interception % Against Advantage <0. The record for this situation is 72-17 ATS since 1994.

We have two NFL Power Systems that are active for today’s Minnesota / Tennessee match up. Play ON a non-Saturday home favorite of 2+ points with a TOTAL under 46 points off a home SU win outscoring its foe in each quarter in its last game
versus an opponent not off a Monday road underdog SU loss in its last game, 15-0 ATS. Play ON a non-division home favorite of 3 points or less with a TOTAL of 34-47 points off a SU & ATS win as a home favorite of more than 3 points last week, 16-0 ATS.

With strong fundamental and technical support for the host we will make the Tennessee Titans an NFL 4* Selection for Sunday.

GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Tennessee Titans -3




Time / Date: 4:05 EST / Sunday September 28

Game: Buffalo Bills vs. St. Louis Rams

Line Origin: BetCris @ 3:37 EST September 24

Grade / Prediction: 4* Buffalo / St. Louis Over 41.5

Analysis:

The St. Louis Rams will play host to the red-hot Buffalo Bills on Sunday afternoon in “The Gateway to the West”. Buffalo looks to improve to 4-0 for the first time since 1992 on Sunday and the Rams are hoping a quarterback change will reverse a dreadful first three weeks.
The Bills win on Sunday against Oakland was not without a scare as they trailed for most of the first three quarters but mounted a furious rally with 17 points in the fourth, capped by Rian Lindell's 38-yard field goal as time expired to give them a 24-23 victory.
Bills QB Trent Edwards the second-year quarterback out of Stanford completed 24 of 39 passes for 279 yards, going 14-for-19 for 182 yards and a touchdown on the final three drives that produced Buffalo's 17 points in the fourth quarter of their win over the Raiders.
Rams will make a QB change for Sunday’s game against the Bills as Trent Green gets the start. He was slated to be the starter for St. Louis in 1999, but suffered a season-ending knee injury in the final preseason game. Green returned to appear in eight games for a Rams team that went 10-6 in 2000, and is now back in St. Louis after six years in Kansas City and one in Miami.
With Mark Bulger under center, this year's Rams have scored only 29 points, making them the only NFC team with fewer than 50. On Tuesday, Coach Scott Linehan 11-24 in his third season with the Rams issued a terse, two-paragraph release announcing the quarterback change.
Nothing has worked for the Rams in 2008 their defense has given up a league-high 116 points to complement their struggling offense. All three of their losses have been by 24 points or more, including last week's 37-13 defeat at previously winless Seattle.
In this series it hasn’t mattered who got the start at QB or who was even playing for either team as the last 6 in this series have gone “Over” the posted total. The Bills are 7-0 Over when facing teams from the NFC West their last 7 and 12-3 Over their last 15 as non-division road favorites. The Rams are almost perfect against the AFC East posting a record of 7-1 Over their last 8. The Rams have their bye-week on deck and they have gone Over the posted total in their last 6 games before a bye.

St. Louis is 13-4 Over vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since 1992. St. Louis is 22-9 Over vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards per attempt since 1992. St. Louis is 35-18 Over in non-conference games since 1992. Buffalo is 35-20 Over after a win by 6 or less points since 1992.

The Bills are 11-1 Over as a 7+ favorite when their opponent is off two 7+ losses. The Bills are 10-1 Over on the road after a win in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. The Bills are 7-0 Over as a 7+ favorite when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak. The Bills are 15-5 Over when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date. The Bills are 9-1 Over as a 7+ favorite when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The League is 17-3 Over as a favorite when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date. The League is 24-6 Over when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak. The League is 10-1 Over as a favorite the week after a straight up win at home in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average.

The Rams are 7-0 Over at home the week before their bye. The Rams are 18-5-2 Over at home after playing as a dog. The Rams are 16-4 Over when facing a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 275 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Rams are 11-2 Over after playing the Seahawks. The League is 64-39-3 Over after playing as a dog. The League is 17-3-1 Over as a home dog when facing a team that has forced an average of at least six punts per game season-to-date. The League is 40-17 Over after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time. The League is 14-3 Over at home when they lost and failed to cover their last two games. The League is 10-1-1 Over as a dog when on a 3 game SU and ATS losing streak. The League is 7-0 Over at home when they lost and failed to cover their last three games. The League is 7-0 Over as a 7+ dog when they lost and failed to cover their last three games.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings Index) has both teams scoring over 22.5 points in this game. The TPR and our Math Model both indicate an “Over” play in this contest and the average score goes over the posted total by 6.5 points.

The combination of fundamental, technical and situational factors lead to an “Over” in this game today, this qualifies as our NFL 4* Total Game of the Week.

GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Buffalo / St. Louis Over 41.5




Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday September 28

Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers

Line Origin: BetCris @ 5:40 EST September 24

Grade / Prediction: 3* Atlanta / Carolina Under 40

Analysis:


Carolina will play host to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Both teams are 2-1 on the season and looking to gain on foothold in their divisions. Last week, the Carolina Panthers were hoping the long-awaited reunion of Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith would give their offense a boost. Instead, it never materialized and they suffered their first loss of the season.

After accumulating 604 yards in winning its first two games of the year, Carolina had just 204 in last Sunday's 20-10 loss to Minnesota. Although the Panthers played against a solid Vikings' defense at the hostile Metrodome, most expected better in the first game Delhomme and Smith played together in 364 days.
The duo connected on a 16-yard pass on Carolina's first play from scrimmage, but did little after that. Delhomme, who has just one touchdown on the season, finished 17-for-29 for 191 yards, while Smith had four receptions for 70 yards.
The running game also never got going against Minnesota. DeAngelo Williams had 10 carries for 27 yards after rushing for 117 on 29 attempts in his first two games, while Jonathan Stewart finished with 15 yards on seven carries after gaining 130 on 24 attempts in his first two.
Penalties have also been a major area of concern for Fox, as Carolina committed 12 last Sunday. The Panthers' 28 penalties are tied for the league lead, and in the past two weeks they've been flagged for a false start 11 times.
"The false start penalties are bothersome. That's something that you should be able to fix," Delhomme said. "We had a ton here at home, which is very disappointing."
Atlanta is halfway to its win total from a year ago, but both of those victories have come at home against the hapless Chiefs and Lions.
After losing at Tampa Bay 24-9 on Sept. 14, the Falcons jumped out to a 24-0 second-quarter lead en route to a 38-14 victory over Kansas City last Sunday.
Michael Turner rushed for 104 yards and had the first three-touchdown game of his career against the Chiefs. After spending four years in San Diego backing up LaDainian Tomlinson, Turner is thriving as a lead back. Most of Turner’s yards have come at home against the Chiefs and Lions. He will face a better overall defensive unit on Sunday in Carolina.
After the Falcons established their running game against Kansas City, Ryan was able to get comfortable, and finished 12-for-18 for 192 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. When Turner was limited to 42 yards on 14 attempts against the Buccaneers, though, Ryan also struggled.
Playing on the road may also hinder Ryan. He is 21-for-31 for 353 yards and two touchdowns in his two home wins, but was just 13-for-33 for 158 yards and two interceptions in the road loss.
We expect the Carolina defense to give the rookie QB problems on Sunday. The Panthers are allowing 113 yards rushing per contest and they should be successful in keeping Turner in check.

Technical support for our selection on the “Under” in this contest comes from both teams. Atlanta is 7-2-2 Under their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Atlanta is 26-9-2 Under their last 37 games after rushing for more than 150 yards in their last game, 32-12-1 Under their last 45 road games overall, 25-10-2 Under their last 37 following a SU win, 14-6-1 Under their last 21 after allowing 15 points or less in their previous game, 13-6-2 Under their last 21 after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and 23-11-2 Under their last 36 games following an ATS win.

Carolina is 8-0 Under their last 8 home games versus a team with a winning road record, 7-1 Under their last 8 home games overall, 4-1 Under their last 5 versus the NFC South, 13-4 Under their last 17 games after totaling 250 or less yards in their previous game, 21-8-2 Under their last 31 games during the month of September, 11-5 Under their last 16 games overall.

Our research has uncovered several Power Angles for this contest. The Falcons are 0-13 Under on the road after playing as a favorite. The Falcons are 1-17 Under on the road the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Falcons are 0-11 Under on the road after playing at home as a favorite. The Falcons are 0-9 Under on the road when they covered by 10+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent. The Falcons are 0-9 Under on the road after a straight up win as a favorite.

The Panthers are 0-14 Under as a home favorite versus a divisional opponent. The Panthers are 0-12 Under at home versus a divisional opponent. The Panthers are 0-10 Under as a home favorite when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season. The Panthers are 0-6 Under at home when facing a divisional opponent with the same record as theirs.

We also have a few systems that are active for this game and the first tells us to “Play Under” on any NFL team (Atlanta) the week after a SU win at home in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average, 2-12 Under. “Play Under” on any NFL team (Carolina) as a home favorite of 7 or more points versus a divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent, 6-18 Under.


GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Atlanta / Carolina Under 40
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

*** EZWINNERS MLB ***

5 STAR: (926) MINNESOTA (-1.5)(-$125) over Kansas City
(Listing Baker and Duckworth)
Risking $625 to win $500
1:10PM Central Time<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Kevin Kavitch 11-7-1 +15.60 units ytd

The 49ers are still flying under the radar with a solid running game and improvements in the passing attack. New Orleans has injuy problems right now and their defence makes them quite vulnerable. Good SF pass defence numbers and poor Saints run & pass defence numbers adds to this play. The line move says it all. It opened at -6.5 and a solid majority of bets have come in on New Orleans. Line should move to -7 or more, right? Wrong. Big, sharp money has forced the books to go to -4. Public is going to be surprised here and New Orleans is in for a dog fight. Take San Francisco +4 for a 4* Regular Play.


Houston sits at 0-2 and a lack a focus hurt them last week vs Tennessee. They had numerous chances and didn't execute so the 31-12 score is deceiving. They've had 2 strong opponents and finally have a chance to mentally regroup after all happened recently. Their running game was quite encouraging last week vs Tennessee and they catch the Jags at a good time off a win vs Indy. Jaguar O-line injuries also help. Public money has poured in on Jacksonville but the line has held at -7. We've seen this movie before as smart money is holding the line. Take Houston for a 4* Regular Play. Close to making this a Top Play.


Good setup for an underdog cover. A big road favorite that has struggled defensively, an opponent they'll have a hard time getting up for, and no added urgency with a 3-0 record. KC will start Huard which will help and they have a chance to do well with the running game and mix in the pass. Home dogs in this role do extremely well vs the spread and this fits one of the strongest NFL systems I look for each week. These kinds of picks will never make you feel cozy but they are profitable in the long run. Take Kansas City +9.5 for a 3* Regular Play
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET LATE TELEPHONE SELECTIONS - a.k.a. Nationwide Publishing

1 1/2 units BUCCANEERS
1 unit TEXANS
1 unit PANTHERS

THE GOLD SHEET

1 unit CHARGERS<!-- / message --><!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Brian Gabrielle

Camping World RV 400 at Kansas Speedway

Last Week: Greg Biffle won his second straight Chase race, at Dover, and we had him at +800 in a straight-up bet. That made it a mighty fine week, indeed. We won one unit on 0.5 units wagered, a return of 200% for the week, and for the season we're now up to a profit of 6.19 units on 35 units wagered, a return of 17.7%. We've also given you a winning week in 20 of 27 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have lost won six units on three units wagered, a return of 200%; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 18.73 units on 102 units wagered, a return of 18.4%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)

Take Jimmie Johnson (+450), 1/6th unit. This week, the Chase heads to Kansas, a cookie-cutter mile-and-a-half track with banking a bit more shallow than Atlanta, Charlotte and Texas. The closest equivalent may in fact be Fontana, which is a half-mile longer and with slightly less banking; it just so happens that Johnson absolutely pole-axed the field at Fontana last month. While J.J. hasn't won a race at this track, he's been the cookie-cutter king for years. I give him a great shot to take the points lead Sunday.

Take Carl Edwards (+400), 1/6th unit. And if it's not Johnson, it'll probably be King Carl. Edwards had the field completely covered in the first four cookie-cutter events this year: he won three of them, and should've won an Atlanta race where he blew an engine late with a big lead. Edwards's advantage on this track style hasn't been nearly as pronounced since then, though he did win at Michigan in that venue's second event this season, and I expect him to challenge for the win on Sunday.

Take Matt Kenseth (+1200), 1/6th unit. The chic third pick will be to take Greg Biffle (+500), who won each of the first two Chase races. And Biffle was mighty good to us last week. But those who point to Biffle's win at this track in this event last year might not remember that was a fuel-mileage race where the event was stopped for a couple hours because of a huge wreck, and they basically ran out of daylight, giving Biffle the "still-standing" win when he didn't stop for fuel. Kenseth still hasn't won a race in 2008, and actually has a litany of crummy finishes at this joint, but he has two top-fives this year at both Fontana and Michigan, and top-10s at Atlanta, Charlotte and Texas. Consistency like that is hard to duplicate, and the No. 17 bunch will be motivated to get a win before the season ends. I know Kyle Busch (+450) has a chance to bounce back, too, and he's been the best driver on this track style all year. But I think he'll push too hard and fall again, while Milwaukee Matt may just sneak into Victory Lane.
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Johnny Guild

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers

The Jet's and Brett Favre's days of old record against the Chargers looks exceptionally good. New York is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus San Diego, 4-1 ATS last five in San Diego and the road team has won the last three meetings. Into the bargain, Jets are 3-0 both straight-up and against the spread in the last three meetings in San Diego and Brett Favre is 5-0 in his career against the Chargers. But, San Diego currently is 8-3 in their last 11 games, 9-1-1 ATS and is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 at home and they haven’t played the Jets since, 2005

The Chargers have the talent to defeat Farve and crew and are fuming following last week bad call, costing them the game to the Broncos. The Chargers' offense won’t have difficulty scoring against the Jets, but do believe the Jets will. Go with San Diego at home in a Monday night rumble. NY Jets are just 5-14 in their last 19 games, 2-8 in their last 10 on the road

San Diego Chargers -8.5
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Rocketman Sports

Houston / Jacksonville
Play:3* Houston +7

Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. We'll play Houston for 3 units today!
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

GINA

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Look for the Carolina Panthers potent ground attack to give the Atlanta Falcons a heap of problems in Carolina. Panthers’ Rookie running back Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams WILL bulldoze the Falcons’ defense, ranked 23rd overall against the run.

Carolina Panthers -7


Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

Washington Redskins are a decent team, but won't be able to contain Romo and his arsenal of weapons. Dallas is the superior team and perhaps presently the best in the NFL should win this battle at home easily. The Redskins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings at Texas Stadium.

Dallas Cowboys -11
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

SPORTS ADVISORS

Denver (3-0, 1-1-1 ATS) at Kansas City (0-3, 1-2 ATS)

The Broncos, who are coming off two lucky home victories, make the trek to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the hapless Chiefs in an AFC West contest.

Denver, which benefited from an official’s mistake in beating the Chargers two weeks ago, barely got off the hook again last week, edging New Orleans 34-32 as a five-point home chalk after the Saints missed a late game-winning field goal try. QB Jay Cutler (21 of 34, 264 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had another solid day, boosting his TD-to-INT ratio to 8-2, and WR Brandon Marshall (6 catches, 155 yards, 1 TD) also had a big game. However, the Broncos defense gave up a whopping 502 total yards, including 421 through the air.

Kansas City, playing musical quarterbacks so far this year, got throttled 38-14 by Atlanta as a 6½-point road underdog for its 12th straight loss (4-8 ATS). Tyler Thigpen was an awful 14 of 36 for 128 yards with one TD and three INTs, one of which was returned for a score. RB Larry Johnson (24 carries, 121 yards, 1 TD) fueled a 184-yard rushing attack, but the Chiefs defense gave up 186 yards on the ground.

With Thigpen having struggled in his first two starts, Chiefs coach Herm Edwards said that veteran Damon Huard will return under center for this game.

Denver won and covered both meetings between these rivals last year by a combined score of 68-18, ending a 3-0 ATS run by Kansas City. However, the home team is still 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 battles, and K.C. is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings at Arrowhead.

The Broncos are mired in ATS funks of 7-19-1 overall, 1-4 on the highway, 3-10-1 in divisional play, 2-5 in division road games, 1-6-1 against losing teams and 3-13-1 following a SU win. The Chiefs aren’t much better at the betting window, carrying negative ATS trends of 0-6 at home, 0-5 in AFC West play, 1-5 against winning teams and 2-6 after a SU loss.

The over has cashed in 10 of the last 13 Broncos-Chiefs clashes overall and six of the last seven in K.C. In addition, the over for Denver is on tears of 6-0 in September, 8-1 inside the division, 22-6-1 overall and 6-2 in roadies, and for Kansas City, the total has gone high in five of its last seven home games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Cleveland (0-3, 1-2 ATS) at Cincinnati (0-3, 1-2 ATS)

Two instate rivals desperate for a win get together when the Browns make the short trip to Paul Brown Stadium for an AFC North clash with the Bengals.

Cleveland lost to Baltimore 28-10 as a one-point road pup in Week 3. QB Derek Anderson continued to struggle, going a dismal 14 of 37 for 125 yards with one TD against three INTs. The Browns finished with just 169 total yards, while allowing 273, and they were on the short end of a nearly 16-minute difference in time of possession.

Cincinnati easily had its best showing so far this year, taking the Super Bowl champion Giants to overtime before losing 26-23, cashing as a 13-point road ‘dog. QB Carson Palmer (27 of 39, 286 yards) finally tossed his first TD pass of the year, hitting WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (12 catches, 146 yards). The Bengals had no turnovers, but they didn’t force any either, and they gave up 406 yards.

Cincy has gone 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in the last seven games in this rivalry, with the home team winning and covering last year’s two meetings.

Despite the Browns’ slow start, they still sport ATS streaks of 13-5 overall, 5-2 in the AFC North, 5-1 after a non-cover and 7-2 after a SU loss. The Bengals are on ATS slides of 1-6 after a spread-cover and 1-4 against losing teams, but they are on a 9-3 cashing spree in their last 12 September starts.

Although these two teams were involved in 51-45 shootout in Cleveland last year, the under has been the smarter play for both squads recently. For the Browns, the under is on runs of 8-1 overall, 4-0 against losing teams and 5-1 against the AFC. The under for Cincinnati has cashed in seven of its last nine overall and is on further runs of 5-0 in division play, 4-0 at home and 6-1 against the AFC.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI and UNDER


Houston (0-2 SU and ATS) at Jacksonville (1-2 SU and ATS)

The Jaguars, coming off their first victory of the season, return home to Alltel Stadium to host the AFC South rival Texans.

Jacksonville knocked off Indianapolis 23-21 as a four-point road pup, winning on Josh Scobee’s 51-yard field goal in the final seconds. The Jags leaned heavily on a running game that produced an eye-popping 236 yards, as RBs Fred Taylor (26 carries, 121 yards) and Maurice Jones-Drew (19 carries, 107 yards, 1 TD) both cracked 100 yards. Jacksonville had a staggering 41:35-18:25 edge in time of possession and outgained the Colts 403-325.

Houston returned to action after a weather-imposed week off due to Hurricane Ike, but it wasn’t aided by the extra rest, losing 31-12 at Tennessee catching 4½ points. With rookie Steve Slaton (18 carries, 116 yards, 1 TD) leading the way, the Texans ran for 146, but QB Matt Schaub (17 of 37, 188 yards) proved to be their undoing with three INTs, including a late fourth-quarter pick returned 99 yards for a TD.

The Texans are 9-3 ATS in the short history of this rivalry, with the underdog going 5-2 ATS in the last seven. The two teams split last year’s contests SU and ATS, with the host winning and cashing each time.

The Jaguars are on a 5-13 ATS slide as a division chalk and are on a 2-5 ATS dip in September games, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 9-4 overall, 4-1 at Alltel, 6-2 after a SU win and 6-2 after a spread-cover. The Texans are on ATS skids of 0-5 on the highway, 1-5 in division play, 3-9 against the AFC, 3-8 in September, 3-7 following a SU loss and 3-7 after a pointspread setback.

The under has been the play in four of the last five series meetings between these teams in Jacksonville. But the over for the Jags is on tears of 11-2-2 overall, 4-0 against losing teams, 4-1 inside the division and 8-2-2 in AFC contests, and the over for Houston is on stretches of 4-0 overall, 4-0 on the road and 13-3 against AFC South foes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE


Arizona (2-1 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Jets (1-2 SU and ATS)

The Jets hope to get the Brett Favre era back on track when they return home to East Rutherford, N.J., for a non-conference contest against the Cardinals.

New York got pounded 49-28 at San Diego in prime time Monday night, falling way short as a nine-point road underdog. Favre threw 42 times, completing 30 for 271 yards and three TDs, but he had two INTs – one returned for a TD and the other converted into a 45-yard scoring drive. The Jets lost the turnover battle 4-1 and the time-of-possession battle by nearly five minutes.

Arizona is coming off a 24-17 loss at Washington as a three-point road underdog. QB Kurt Warner (16 of 30, 192 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) slipped a bit from his performance of the first two weeks, and in an otherwise evenly played game, the Cards lost the turnover battle 2-0 and had a six-minute time-of-possession deficit.

These two teams have met just once this decade, with New York taking a 13-3 road win as a three-point favorite in 2004.

The Jets are on a 2-6-1 ATS slide at home, but they carry positive pointspread streaks of 5-2 after a SU loss and 12-5 after a pointspread setback. The Cardinals are on spread-covering runs of 6-1 in September, 10-3 after a SU loss and 8-3 after a non-cover.

The under for New York has cashed in four straight home games and is on further streaks of 6-1 overall, 6-0 against winning teams and 7-3-1 in September. Conversely, the over for Arizona is on tears of 8-3 overall, 37-15 on the road and 24-7 against losing teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


San Francisco (2-1 SU and ATS) at New Orleans (1-2, 2-1 ATS)

The Saints, who are a couple of plays away from being 3-0, look to get back in the win column at the Superdome when they take on the 49ers.

New Orleans, which gave up two TDs to blow a fourth-quarter lead at Washington two weeks ago, had a potential game-winning field goal go wide right last week in a 34-32 loss at Denver, thought the Saints cashed as a five-point pup. The missed field goal wasted a huge day from QB Drew Brees (39 of 48, 421 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs), as the Saints finished with a whopping 502 total yards, while allowing 369.

San Francisco pounded Detroit 31-13 giving five points at home – which led the Lions to finally firing embattled team president Matt Millen. QB J.T. O’Sullivan (16 of 23, 189 yards, 2 TDs) was terrific, and the 49ers ran for 182 yards, paced by RB Frank Gore’s 130 yards and a TD on 27 carries. The Niners also forced a pair of turnovers while committing none in winning their second straight game.

New Orleans has owned this series of former division rivals, going 9-2 ATS in the last 11 clashes. The Saints have won the last three meetings outright (2-1 ATS), including routs of 34-10 at home two years ago and 31-10 on the road last year. The favorite has cashed in four of the last five showdowns.

The Saints are in a 4-11 ATS decline as a home chalk dating to 2006, and they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 following a spread-cover, but they won and covered at home against Tampa in Week 1 and they’ve cashed in four of their last five games following a SU defeat. Meanwhile, despite winning and cashing the past two weeks, the 49ers are in pointspread funks of 2-6 after an ATS win, 2-6 on the highway and 4-9 against the NFC.

New Orleans’ all-offense, no-defense philosophy has led to a bevy of high-scoring games, as the Saints are on over streaks of 6-0 overall, 6-0 at home, 14-3 versus NFC foes and 4-1 in September. The over is also 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the Saints and Niners.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER


Atlanta (2-1 SU and ATS) at Carolina (2-1, 1-1-1 ATS)

The Falcons, off to a surprising start behind a rookie QB and new head coach, travel north to Charlotte for an NFC South clash with the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.

Atlanta, seemingly getting it together quickly under coach Mike Smith, ripped lowly Kansas City 38-13 as a 6½-point home favorite in Week 3. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (12 of 18, 192 yards, 1 TD, no INTs) wasn’t asked to do much, but he didn’t make any mistakes, and RB Michael Turner (23 carries, 104 yards, 3 TDs) had another big day. The Falcons also forced three turnovers, returning an INT for a TD late in the fourth quarter.

Carolina tasted defeat for the first time in 2008 last week, blowing a 10-0 lead and losing 20-10 at Minnesota as a 3½-point underdog, with the Panthers failing to score in the second half. QB Jake Delhomme led an offense that generated just 204 total yards – to the Vikings’ 305 – and he was sacked five times and lost two of his three fumbles, with one of those run back for a TD just before halftime to tie the game at 10.

These division rivals split last year’s meetings, with the road team winning and cashing each time. In fact, the visitor has covered the spread in the last five battles, and the Falcons are 13-6-4 ATS in the last 23 head-to-head meetings overall and 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes in Carolina.

The Falcons are on a 3-9-1 pointspread slide as a division pup and are on additional ATS skids of 0-4 inside the division and 1-4 against winning teams. The Panthers are on a 3-7-1 ATS nosedive in Charlotte, but they still carry positive ATS trends of 4-1-1 overall and 4-0 after a SU loss.

Atlanta is on a 9-1 “over” tear overall, but the under is on a 32-12-1 in the team’s last 45 road games and 9-4 in its last 13 division tilts. Likewise, the under for Carolina is on runs of 11-5 overall, 7-1 at home, 4-1 in division play and 21-8-2 in September. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five straight games at Carolina and is 11-4-1 in the last 16 matchups overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


Minnesota (1-2 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (3-0 SU and ATS)

The Titans put their perfect mark on the line when they step outside the AFC for a clash against the Vikings at LP Field.

Tennessee breezed past Houston 31-12 as a 4½-point home favorite, easily cashing for the third straight week. QB Kerry Collins, who apparently will remain the starter even when Vince Young (knee) returns, had a serviceable effort in going 13-for-25 for 185 yards with one TD and one INT. He was aided by a ground attack that produced 158 yards, and a defense that picked off Houston’s Matt Schaub three times, with Cortland Finnegan returning the last one 99 yards for a TD with a little more than a minute to play to secure the spread-cover.

Minnesota broke through for its first win by beating Carolina 20-10 as a 3½-point home chalk, scoring 20 unanswered points after falling behind 10-0 early in the second quarter. New starting QB Gus Frerotte (16 of 28, 204 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) fared OK, but the Vikings defense was the difference, recovering two fumbles (one for a TD) and allowing just 204 total yards as Minnesota finished with a nearly nine-minute edge in time of possession.

The Vikings are on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this series, though the two teams haven’t met since 2004, when Minnesota scored a 20-3 home win laying six points.

The Titans are on a 12-4 ATS tear at home against NFC foes, and they are on additional ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 7-0 in September and 4-1 against losing teams. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five against winning teams, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last six outings overall.

The “under” has been the play for both these teams lately. For Tennessee, the under is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 6-1 in September and 11-2-1 after a SU win, while the under for Minnesota is on runs of 7-2-1 in September, 22-6-1 after a pointspread win and 22-7-1 after a SU victory.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and UNDER


Green Bay (2-1 SU and ATS) at Tampa Bay (2-1 SU and ATS)

The Packers, coming off their first loss of the Aaron Rodgers era, make a trip to the Sunshine State to take on the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.

Green Bay looks to bounce back from Sunday night’s lopsided 27-16 home loss to Dallas as a three-point pup. Rodgers had respectable numbers (22 of 39, 290 yards, no TDs, no INTs), but he lost 40 yards on five sacks and didn’t lead a TD drive until running it in from a yard out for a meaningless score late in the fourth quarter. The Pack also allowed 453 total yards, including RB Marion Barber’s 142 rushing yards and one TD.

Tampa Bay rallied past Chicago 27-24 in overtime as a three-point road pup, winning on a Matt Bryant 24-yard field goal. The Bucs pretty much conceded trying to run the ball, as QB Brian Griese threw a whopping 67 passes, completing 38 for 407 yards with two TDs and three INTs. Tampa, which trailed by 10 points in the fourth quarter, pulled it out despite losing the turnover battle 4-2 and finishing with an eight-minute deficit in time of possession.

The Bucs beat Green Bay 17-16 as a three-point road favorite in 2005, the last time these two former division rivals met. The Packers have covered the last two contests after going 1-6-1 in the previous eight meetings.

The Buccaneers are on positive pointspread runs of 7-3 at home, 7-2 as a home chalk, 5-1 in September and 19-9-2 when hosting non-division opponents. The Packers are also on several ATS runs, including 5-1 overall, 10-2-1 on the highway, 5-0-1 after a SU loss, 7-0-2 after a non-cover. But Green Bay is in ATS ruts of 4-9-4 against winning teams and 2-6-1 following a double-digit home loss.

The over for Green Bay is on stretches of 16-5 overall, 6-0 as a visitor and 13-3 against NFC foes, and the over for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 7-2 overall and 6-2 against the NFC. But in this rivalry, the under is on runs of 6-1 overall and 4-0 at Raymond James Stadium.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY


Buffalo (3-0, 2-1 ATS) at St. Louis (0-3 SU and ATS)

The surprising Bills look to stay perfect with a victory against the lackluster Rams in a non-conference contest at the Edward Jones Dome.

Buffalo rallied for a 24-23 home victory over Oakland, falling far short as a 10-point chalk. The Bills scored 17 fourth-quarter points, winning on Rian Lindell’s 38-yard field goal as time expired. QB Trent Edwards (24 of 39, 279 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was steady enough to help Buffalo overcome a 3-1 turnover deficit, and the Bills held a 378-247 total yardage edge and a nine-minute advantage in time of possession.

St. Louis got pounded 37-13 at Seattle last week getting nine points – the third straight week the Rams have been ‘dogs of nine or more and not come close to cashing. QB Marc Bulger (18 of 31, 184 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was mediocre in leading, and St. Louis got outgained 407-240. Following the setback to the Seahawks, the Rams – who have scored just 29 points all season – made a QB change, as veteran Trent Green will start against the Bills.

These two squads have squared off just once this decade in the regular season, with Buffalo rolling 37-17 as a two-point home favorite in 2004.

The Bills are on a bevy of ATS tears, including 5-1 against the NFC, 5-2 in roadies, 12-4 on turf, 10-4-1 after a SU win and 38-18-3 against losing teams. Conversely, the Rams sport nothing but negative pointspread numbers, including 0-6 overall, 0-5 as a home ‘dog, 2-7 at home, 5-16 against winning teams and 7-21-3 in September.

The under for Buffalo has cashed in four straight on the highway and is on further streaks of 4-1 against losing teams and 12-5 in September. For St. Louis, the over is on tears of 5-1 overall, 4-0 at home and 8-1 after a SU loss.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO


San Diego (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS) at Oakland (1-2, 2-1 ATS)

The Chargers, who finally nabbed their first win of the season last week, travel up the California coast for a matchup with the division rival Raiders at McAfee Coliseum.

San Diego whipped the Jets 48-29 on Monday night as a heavy nine-point favorite. QB Philip Rivers overcame an early INT return for a touchdown to finish an efficient 19 of 25 for 250 yards and three TDs, and the Chargers won the turnover battle 4-1, with CB Antonio Cromartie returning one of his two picks for a TD.

Oakland blew a 16-7 fourth-quarter lead in losing at Buffalo 24-23 a week ago, though the Raiders cashed as a 10-point pup. JaMarcus Russell (9 of 19, 156 yards, 1 TD) still hasn’t thrown an INT this season, but the Raiders generated just 247 total yards against the Bills in failing to take advantage of a 3-1 turnover edge.

San Diego has ripped off nine straight victories against Oakland (8-1 ATS, all as a favorite), including winning and cashing in both contests last year. The Bolts are on a 6-0 ATS run at Oakland, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven series clashes.

The Chargers are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 45-21-3 overall, 5-0-1 on the highway, 8-1 after a SU win, 8-1 after a spread-cover, 19-7-4 in AFC West play, 8-3-1 in divisional road tilts and 5-0 against squads with a losing record. On the flip side, Oakland is on ATS freefalls of 11-29-1 at McAfee Coliseum since 2003, 2-11 in divisional home games and 5-13 as a home pup.

For San Diego, the over is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 12-3-2 on the road and 6-0 in September, and the over for Oakland is on streaks of 6-1 in September, 4-1 inside the division and 8-2 overall. However, the under is 6-1 in the last seven Chargers-Raiders tussles

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO


Washington (2-1 SU and ATS) at Dallas (3-0, 2-1 ATS)

The Cowboys look to keep rolling when they welcome the NFC East rival Redskins to Texas Stadium.

Dallas coasted past Green Bay 27-16 in prime time Sunday night as a three-point road chalk. QB Tony Romo (17 of 30, 260 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was steady, but the Cowboys’ running game stole the show, pounding out 217 yards, including 142 and a TD from Marion Barber. Also, the Cowboys defense yielded just three field goals before giving up a meaningless late TD.

Washington held off Arizona 24-17 giving three points at home for its second straight win and cover (both at home). QB Jason Campbell (22 of 30, 193 yards, 2 TDs) was solid, and the Redskins were turnover-free while forcing a pair of Cardinals miscues.

The Redskins have cashed in five of the last six games in this rivalry, including the last three in a row. In last yea’s battle at Texas Stadium, Washington lost 28-23 but covered as a heavy 11-point pup. The underdog is on a 17-4 ATS tear when these teams meet, though the host is 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups, and Dallas is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests at Texas Stadium.

The Cowboys are on pointspread dips of 2-6 overall, 0-5 in the NFC East, 1-5 in home division games and 3-7 laying more than seven points. The Redskins, meanwhile, are just 5-9-1 ATS in their last 15 roadies, but they are on ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 21-8-1 against winning teams.

The under for Dallas has been the play in six of its last seven overall and is also on a 5-1 run versus NFC foes, and the under for Washington is on streaks of 5-1 in September and 5-2 in division play.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON and UNDER


Philadelphia (2-1, 3-0 ATS) at Chicago (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS)

The Eagles, who are perfect at the betting window so far, hit the highway for the second time this year when invade Soldier Field to take on the Bears.

Philadelphia last week grinded out a 15-6 victory over Pittsburgh laying 3½ points at home, outscoring the Steelers by a less-than-robust 5-0 margin in the second half. QB Donovan McNabb (24 of 35, 196 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was mediocre in a game that was fairly ugly all the way around, with both teams committing three turnovers and Philly gaining just 260 total yards – yet holding the Steelers to just 180 total yards.

Chicago squandered a 10-point fourth-quarter lead last week against Tampa Bay, falling 27-24 in overtime as a three-point home favorite. QB Kyle Orton (22 of 34, 268 yards) offset two TD passes with a pair of INTs, and though both teams moved the ball (454-405 total yardage edge for Tampa), the Bears’ defense gave up a ridiculous 407 passing yards to journeyman QB Brian Griese.

Chicago beat Philadelphia 19-16 catching 5½ points on the road last year, ending the Eagles’ 5-0 SU run (3-2 ATS) in this rivalry. In addition, the underdog and the road team are both 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Philly is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games, including cashing in the last seven in a row. The Eagles also sport ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 against the NFC and 4-1 in September.

The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six after a non-cover, but they are on pointspread downturns of 4-10 at Soldier Field and 1-6-1 in September.

The over has cashed in five of Philadelphia’s last six on the road, but otherwise the team is in the midst of under stretches of 5-2 overall and 19-7-3 against losing teams. Meanwhile, the over for Chicago is on runs of 16-5 at home and 20-6-1 in conference contests. Finally, the under has been the play in four of the last five meetings between these squads.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Sunshine Forecast

1* New York Jets -1
1* Kansas City Chiefs +9 1/2
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Erin Rynning

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Chiefs/ regular
Raiders/ playmaker
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Nathan Armstrong
Highprofitsports

5* Game Of The Week Carolina
3* Minnesota
3* Green Bay
3* Houston/jacksonvill Over 42
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

JB's Computer Picks

Cincinnati Bengals -3½
Jacksonville Jaguars -7½
Denver Broncos -9½
Carolina Panthers -7
New York Jets -2
New Orleans Saints -5½
Green Bay Packers +1
Tennessee Titans -3 * *
San Diego Chargers -7½
Buffalo Bills -8
Dallas Cowboys -11
Philadelphia Eagles -3
Pittsburgh Steelers -6

Best Bet **
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty hit with both Tennessee ( 6-1/2) and Notre Dame (-1) yesterday.

Today it's the Packers and Browns. The deficit is 195 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

HONDO

September 28, 2008

Hondo gave some back yesterday when Santana's Heimlich maneuver saved the Metamucils and slashed the earnings to 750 simpsons.

Today, a round of HondoNation cheers for Cliffy - 10 units on Lee to pick up No. 23 in Chicago.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Armvin Sports Mlb

9/28/2008 Houston Astros -113

[EagleFan]

Brandon Lang

SUNDAY

25 Dime Buccaneers

5 Dime Teaser- Jaguars /Titans (Take Jaguars from -7 to -1 and take Titans from -3 to +3)


FREE - Arizona Cardinals
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[EagleFan]

Norm Hitzges
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->NFL Regular Record: 31-13
NCAA Football Record: 53-44
NFL Preseason Record: 10-22

NFL

Double Plays

Carolina -7 vs Atlanta
Pittsburgh -5 vs Baltimore

Single Plays

Houston +7 vs Jacksonville
Tampa Bay -1 vs Green Bay
San Francisco +5 vs New Orleans
San Diego -7.5 vs Oakland
Minnesota +3 vs Tennessee
Tennessee/Minnesota Under 35.5
Carolina/Atlanta Under 39.5
Arizona/NY Jets Over 44.5
Washington/Dallas Under 46
Chicago/Philadelphia Under 40.5
San Diego/Oakland Under 45.5
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Dave Malinsky

6* Phil/Chic over
4* TB
4* Houston

[EagleFan]

docs sports
6-Unit Game of the Month. #201 Take Arizona +1 over New York (1 pm)

[EagleFan]

Larry Ness

NOS -4.0 vs SF
The 49ers are 2-1, while the Saints are just 1-2 but look at who they've played. San Francisco's wins have come against a pair of teams who are a combined 1-5 (Seattle and Detroit), while the Saints have lost to Washington (2-1) and Denver (3-0). Lay the cheap price with New Orleans.<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Marc Lawrence late phone plays

4*houston
3*cleve
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Cappers Access

Chiefs
Jets
Rams
Bears
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

10* TAMPA BAY over Green Bay

Well, maybe replacing Brett Favre isn’t going to be as easy as it first seemed for Aaron Rodgers, who faced some real pressure for the first time as a starter last week against Dallas, and couldn’t do much damage until outcome was decided. It isn’t helping Rodgers that Green Bay infantry at less than 100% these days with Ryan Grant slightly compromised by a sore hamstring. Things won’t get any easier at loud and distracting Raymond James Stadium, where d.c. Monte Kiffin’s Tampa 2 schemes have frustrated many accomplished QBs (much less one making only 4th career start). Moreover, must note the leadership rejuvenated vet QB Brian Griese (67 pass attempts at Chicago!) now providing for Buc offense. Greater accumulation of edges rests with T.B., which usually takes care of business as home chalk (7-2 last 9 in role).Late Score Forecast: *TAMPA BAY 30 - Green Bay 17

[Sporting]

VICTORIOUSPLAY:

NFL Victorious Plays:


Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Recommendation: 3* Over 42.5


Arizona @ NY Jets
Recommendation: 1* NY Jets -1


Denver @ Kansa City
Recommendation: 2* Over 47


They've been doing great!!!

BOL to you all!!!

:toast:

[Cardiff]

VICTORIOUSPLAY:

NFL Victorious Plays:


Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Recommendation: 3* Over 42.5

:toast:

The 3* are the top? They are good at this 3*?

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Brandon Lang
Last Week 1 win 2 losses
Week before that: 0 wins 3 losses

Chiefs +10 vs. Broncos
The only organization in America that's had a worse September than the Chiefs is Dow Jones. Not only has Kansas City lost all three of its games, it has gotten outscored 78-32, including double-digit blowout losses to the lowly Falcons and Raiders. So what makes me think that the Chiefs can hang with the undefeated Broncos this week? One reason: My 12-year-old nephew and 10 of his buddies could march down the field and score on Denver's sieve-like defense. The Broncos are coming off two home games in which they surrendered 38 and 31 points, and escaped with two wins by a combined three points. So how can you trust such a porous defense to go on the road, in a hostile venue, against a rival, and cover double digits? I can't. And since the Chiefs are wisely going back to veteran QB Damon Huard in this game and former All-Pro RB Larry Johnson got on track last week at Atlanta with 121 rushing yards, I fully expect Kansas City to put up some points in this one.

Also, the home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry; the host is 11-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 15 clashes; and Kansas City is an incredible 18-4-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a home underdog against AFC West foes. Bottom line: You may not have made any money this week supporting one floundering organization (Wall Street), but you can certainly make some on the Chiefs. Take the points.

49ers +5½ at Saints
Three things you can count on every September: The New York Mets will choke away a playoff berth, FOX will unveil a new reality show entitled, Yes, I Have No Dignity, and the Saints' "much-improved defense" will be exposed as being not improved at all. To that latter point: A week after letting Jason Campbell and the pedestrian Redskins' offense put up 29 points and 455 total yards, New Orleans went to Denver last week and got torched for 34 points and 369 yards. So, in a nutshell, the same rule applies here as in the Denver-Kansas City contest: It's difficult to cover a big pointspread when you can't stop an opponent from scoring. And make no mistake, this 49ers offense can put points on the board, having rolled up 33 and 31 on the Seahawks and Lions, respectively, the last two weeks. In fact, San Francisco quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan has a higher passer rating (104.6) than that of Saints QB Drew Brees (103.9).

Speaking of Brees, sure, he's at the controls of an explosive weapon, but right now it's a weapon missing too many bullets. His top wide receiver, Marques Colston went down with a thumb injury in Week 1 and is still several weeks away from returning. Then this week, tight end Jeremy Shockey had hernia surgery and he's down for more than a month. Memo to Reggie Bush: Might want to check your health insurance coverage; you know how these things tend to happen in threes. New Orleans is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite in the Superdome, and they're laying too many points here.

Cardinals +2 at Jets
My sources informed me that Brett Favre sent a text message to Packers GM Ted Thompson this week that read as follows: "Hey Ted – Uh, any chance that $25 million please-stay-retired offer is still on the table?" Seriously, how do you think ol' No. 4 is feeling right now about his decision to un-retire and hitch his Hall-of-Fame wagon to the moribund Jets? His receivers can't get open, his offensive line provides about as much protection as a punctured condom, and his defense couldn't play dead in a western. (I think my 82-year-old grandmother could've gotten free in the Jets' secondary and scored a touchdown Monday night in San Diego - and she uses a walker to get around!) And if that's not bad enough, there's Favre's new coach, Eric "The Weenie" Mangini, who brilliantly decided to try an onside kick Monday after narrowing the deficit against the Chargers to 17-14. If they handed out Ph.D.s for surrendering momentum, "Mangenious" would have to build a new mantel.

So now the Jets, with a gimpy Favre (ankle injury) and playing on a short week after a miserable 3,000-mile flight home from San Diego, have to face an improving Cardinals team that prudently chose to remain on the East Coast after last week's tough 24-17 loss at Washington rather than go back home to Arizona and travel all the way back to New Jersey. Besides, do you think after watching Philip Rivers and his arsenal of weapons shred the Jets' defense Monday that Arizona's trio of Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin are drooling over the fact that it's their turn to put up big numbers? Finally, remember that it was just two weeks ago that the Jets lost convincingly at home to Matt Cassel and the Patriots – the same Patriots who lost by 25 points at home to Miami last week. Throw in the fact that the Jets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine home games, and this one's a no-brainer.
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (2-0-1)


4* Tenn 27-9
3* Over Cleveland 31-30
2* Houston (+) 17 (+) -20
2* San Fran 27 (+)-28

4★ TENNESSEE over Minnesota - These teams are rather similar in that they feature smashmouth offenses with excellent RB’s & powerful physical defenses. MIN is 0-5-1 ATS away vs AFC teams. TEN is 12-4 ATS at
home vs the NFC. LW the Vikings made a surprise move by switching to QB Frerotte to salvage the season for a heavy preseason playoff favorite. Frerotte was decent & after a slow start fi nished with 204 yds (57%)
with a 1-1 ratio (7.3) but the defense was dominant as MIN outgained CAR 166-38 in the 2H. TEN’s defense has been ferocious TY as they are only allowing 89 ypg rushing (3.7), have 11 sacks, a 1-7 ratio & a 5.4 ypa.
Collins is doing enough in the passing game to keep opposing defenses honest & the combo of Johnson & White has rushed for 141 ypg (4.3). While both teams are mirror images we’ll side with the home team that
has allowed 14 or less pts in 11 of its L19 games. FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 Minnesota 9



3★ OVER: Cleveland 31 CINCINNATI 30 - Neither CIN or CLE has had a fair shot to start the year as both teams have faced 3 straight top 10 defenses. CLE got its season on track LY with a 51-45 shootout win in
Wk 2 as a 7 pt HD only to lose ATS CIN 19-14 as a 2 pt AF in Wk 16. CLE has a much needed bye on deck to heal up & is 5-1-1 ATS before it. The favorite is 10-6 ATS. While Palmer had a good game LW with 286
yds (69%) with a 1-0 ratio vs NYG they only have 3 offensive TD’s in 3 games. They revamped the defense in the offseason but have been outrushed 174 (4.7)-97 (3.3) & the offense has only converted 15 of 49 3rd Dns (35%). Anderson started out 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS LY & avg 262 ypg passing (58%) with a 23-12 ratio (89.4 QBR) & 7.6 ypa. Anderson is 3-4 SU & ATS & has avg’d 161 ypg (51%) with a 7-10 ratio (57.6 QBR)
& a horrible 5.3 ypa since. It’s been 10 years since an 0-3 team made the playoffs & after LW’s close loss it’s business as usual for CIN. CLE however was billed as a playoff team before the season & look for them to go all out to snare a win before the bye as both QB’s vent their frustration in a higher scoring game.
FORECAST: OVER: Cleveland 31 CINCINNATI 30



OTHER SELECTIONS


2★ Houston 17 (+) JACKSONVILLE 20 - HOU is the 1st team since 1991 to start the season with 3 road games. The Texans are 9-3 ATS vs the Jaguars. LY JAX beat HOU 37-17 as a 6.5 pt HF. HOU drove inside
the JAX 10 on their 1st 2 drives but settled for a FG & fumbled the ball away. JAX had TD drives of 76, 81, 78, & 73 yds along with a 77 yd fumble return for a TD. HOU is 5-13 ATS on the road while JAX is 5-13 ATS as a division favorite. QB Schaub was very rusty LW vs TEN with only 188 yds passing (45%) and an 0-3 ratio (5.1 ypa). HOU did fi nally fi nd a RB as Slaton rushed for 116 yds (6.4). The Jags stuck to what they do best with the run & defense LW & beat IND on a 51 yd FG with :08 left. JAX outrushed IND 236 (4.9) to 114 (6.0) & had a huge 41:35 to 18:25 TOP edge. Garrard is back to his role as game manager & he only had 167 yds (73%) with an int LW & JAX WR situation simply doesn’t give JAX the ability to engage in a shootout. We’ll side with the Ugly Dog (18-9 67%) getting generous points vs a JAX team that has a tough SNF game vs PIT
on deck and will just be happy to get a SU win here. FORECAST: Houston 17 (+) JACKSONVILLE 20



2★ San Francisco 27 (+) NEW ORLEANS 28 - This is the 3rd year in a row & 12th in 10 years that these former NFC West foes square off with NO going 9-2 ATS. Brees has avg’d 261 ypg (72%) with a 5-0 ratio in
his 2 meetings vs SF beating them by a combined 65-20. LY NO jumped out to a 31-3 lead before allowing an 80 yd 15 play drive to SF in garbage time as the Saints had a 26-15 FD & 438-260 yd edge as a 2 pt
AF. NO is 5-14 ATS as a HF. SF is 2-6 ATS as an AD. NO returns home after 2 road games while the 49ers are off a “Martz” revenge game vs DET. SF mauled DET with 14-4 FD & 224-67 yd edges with a 21-3 lead.
In his L2 games O’Sullivan has passed for 255 yds (66%) with a 3-0 ratio & 113.4 QBR. SF’s pass defense was 21st LY but thanks to the better efforts of the offense to keep them fresh they are 8th at this point with
a 5.5 ypa. Brees once again had an outstanding game LW passing for 421 yds (81%) with a 1-0 ratio but the run game only gained 88 yds (3.5) vs DEN #27 rush defense. After 3 high scoring & taxing games. NO
is in a fl at spot with a MNF HG on deck vs MIN. SF delivered as our 4★ Key Selection LW here & look for SF to make this a surprisingly close game. FORECAST: San Francisco 27 (+) NEW ORLEANS 28
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[EagleFan]

Brandon Lang
Last Week 1 win 2 losses
Week before that: 0 wins 3 losses



CPW,
On his website he has posted a 25 dimer release and a 5 dime teaser.
Where did these plays come from?
Thanks for all you do!!!


NO RATINGS ON THESE PLAYS.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET

THE GOLD SHEET (3-6)

KEY RELEASES

CAROLINA by 18 over Atlanta
PITTSBURGH by 21 over Baltimore (Monday)
OVER THE TOTAL in the Buffalo-St. Louis game


CAROLINA 28 - Atlanta 10—Week Two redux for Atlanta, which, after
opening impressively vs. a troubled foe (Detroit), was stonewalled at an angry Tampa Bay? Perhaps, as Falcs now must face another NFC South contender (Carolina) in bounce-back mode. Improved as Atlanta “D” might be under new HC Mike Smith, it’s unlikely the Falcs can shut down the Panther infantry as did Minnesota’s strong front seven last week. And if Jake Delhomme can effectively use play-action, expect his special rapport with favorite WR Steve Smith (4 catches in return from suspension last week) to reappear. Atlanta still not asking a lot of rookie QB Matt Ryan (only 31 total pass attempts in Falcs’ two wins), and doubt Michael Turner (366 YR) provides enough ground support on road to compensate.
(07-Car. 27-ATL. 20...C.24-21 C.36/175 A.19/91 A.31/44/0/351 C.13/22/0/138 C.2 A.0) (07-Atl. 20-CAR. 13...A.12-10 C.28/90 A.28/88 A.20/27/0/189 C.13/29/1/145 A.1 C.1) (07-Carolina -4 27-20, Atlanta +3' 20-13...SR: Atlanta 16-10



OVER THE TOTAL Buffalo 29 - ST. LOUIS 24—The Rams’ back
seven has been shredded the first three games, with opponents completing 58 of 88 passes for 7 TDs with no interceptions. St. Louis has now lost seven straight games going back to LY, the last six of them by 17 points or more! Meanwhile, the Bills have fortified their aerial game with the addition of 6-5 WR James Hardy, their second-rounder from Indiana. All that being said, this is the NFL, and the opening spread near 10 could still turn out to be a heavy load for improving Buffalo (3-0 for the first time since 1992). Rams HC Linehan fighting for his job, and he still has talent on offense in RB Steven Jackson, QB Marc Bulger, and WR Torry Holt. St. Louis “over” 17-8-1 its last 26 at home.
(04-BUFFALO +1 37-17...SR: Buffalo 5-4)
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (2-3)
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (1-3).
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK UPSET (0-3)



5* BEST BET
PITTSBURGH over Baltimore by 17
The 2nd place Steelers host the 1st place Ravens in this battle of AFC
Central Division rivals under the Monday Night lights in a showdown of
the league’s No. 1 and No. 2 ranked defenses. When the Steelers come
out of the tunnel they will take the fi eld knowing they are 14-1 SU and
12-3 ATS at home on Mondays since 1990, including 6-0 SU and ATS with
revenge. On the other side of the coin, Baltimore is 1-6 SU and ATS on
Mondays against division rivals when not taking double-digits. With
Marc’s PROVE IT ALL NIGHT theory (see page 2) also at work here, look
for the Ravens to drop to 1-7 ATS as a guest in this series when Pittsburgh is off a loss. Our taste buds are set. Pass the ketchup.



SUNDAY

4* BEST BET
Cleveland over CINCINNATI by 7
division cellar-dwellers. The Bengals came oh-so-close before falling in
overtime to the NY Giants. That sets the table for this contest as teams off a loss of 3 or fewer points against the defending Super Bowl champions
are 1-7 ATS when hosting a division foe the following week. Couple that
with the fact that winless teams at home in Game Four of the season
are 1-11 SU and ATS when facing an opponent off a loss of more than 7
points. With a strong possibility of a ‘Quinn sighting’ in the offi ng and
the Black Cats a putrid 2-16 SU and ATS in Game Four of the season, look
for Romeo to come calling today.

3* BEST BET
Houston over JACKSONVILLE by 3
Questionable play-calling by Gary Kubiak denied the Texans a chance to
take Tennessee down while a fortuitous 51-yard fi eld goal at the buzzer
lifted the Jags past the Colts in diverse results for both of these teams
last week. As a result the Texans are in quest of their fi rst win of the
campaign with a defense that’s allowed 31 and 38 points in its two losses.
We mention that because teams in Game Three that have allowed more
than 30 points in each game to open the season are 4-1 SU and ATS when taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS win. Jack Del Rio’s 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS mark as a favorite against division opponents off a loss is disturbing. No surprise here to see Jax fall to 0-6 ATS as home chalk against a foe off an away game. Take Tex.
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

THE RED SHEET

THE RED SHEET 90* (0-0)
THE RED SHEET 89* (0-0)
THE RED SHEET 88* (1-2)


CAROLINA 27 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Carolina minus 7, and is still minus 7. Yes, it is very unusual for us to be backing the favorite in a game involving the Panthers, as the dog has been simply golden over the past 5+ seasons. However, there has been a bit of a chink in that armor of late, with the chalk on an 8-3-1 spread run in Carolina games since last year.The return of Delhomme has resulted in a 2-1 start for the Panthers, & we have to see him doing his thing, after a less than stellar showing in Minnesota last week. The Falcons, behind QB Ryan & RB Turner, have been world beaters as hosts in the early going, but in their lone road game, both came up considerably short. Lay the wood here.RATING: CAROLINA 89


NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Chargers, Bills, Steelers
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Tom Stryker

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->4 * Chargers

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Frank Patron

10,000 unit lock - Redskins +11.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Tommy Rider

1* k.c. +10
2* car. -6.5
2* over 44 cinn/clev

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Beat Your Bookie

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->100 st.louis
50 minn

NFL
100 No Limit clev.
50 chic
30 kc
<!-- / message -->

[ymmit2nd]

EAST COAST SPORTS CONSULTANTS

WILLIE "D"
Elite HOUSTON
Blue Chip ATLANTA/CAROLINA OVER
Inside Info MINNESOTA
Primetime Shocker CHICAGO

"LEGS" DIAMOND
Bookie Total Nightmare Play Tampa Bay / Green Bay Over
Sunday Night Bookie Massacre Play Chicago

RANDY MITCHEL
Diamond CHICAGO
Platinum HOUSTON
Platinum GREEN BAY/TAMPA BAY OVER
Gold OAKLAND

[ymmit2nd]

2 2008-09-26 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL UPSET SPECIAL PICK! (S)
Pick # 1 Atlanta Falcons (7.0)


1 2008-09-26 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL BEST BET WINNER $0.00
Pick # 1 Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.0)



2008-09-26 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH
Pick # 1 San Diego Chargers / Oakland Raiders Under 45 -110

[ymmit2nd]

Grid "iron" Gold
Cleveland/cincinnati Over The Total
Houston
Arizona/ny Jets Over The Total
Washington

[B.S.S.]

Insider Sports Network
Denver

[Twisted_One]

3-0 or your money back :missingte

TEXANS +7
Cards +1
Chiefs +9

:toast:

[Can'tPickaWinner]

SEABASS:

20* Teaser TB&SF
30* ARI/NYJ over
30* TEN/MIN under
30* HOU/JAC under
50* SD
100* KC
100* Dal/Was over
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[Kinged]

GT Bookie Battle YTD (3-3-1) LY (as posted on this forum: 22-12)

Over the years I have followed the Bookies Battle in GamingToday. The angle is to fade those teams that clearly have over 70% of the casino contestants picking one side. Over the last couple of years there hasn't been a lot of action, but it seemed to hit around 60%.

Let’s see how this angle has worked so far this year.

Week #1 thru #2: 3-3-1 (Can’t seem to get beyond breakeven)

Week #3 Picks are on: CAR and BAL

[B.S.S.]

Computer Crushers
Houston +7

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Burns


UNDER raiders/chargers

Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders Game Time: 9/28/2008 4:00:00 PM Prediction: under *AFC West TOY



ST LOUIS

Game: Buffalo Bills vs. St. Louis Rams Game Time: 9/28/2008 4:00:00 PM Prediction: St. Louis Rams *Non-Conf. GOW


UNDER bears/eagles

Game: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears Game Time: 9/28/2008 8:15:00 PM Prediction: under *Main Event



TAMPA BAY

Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Time: 9/28/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers *NFL GOM
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[sportsman362008]

Big Al

At 1 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers plus the points over the New Orleans Saints NFC Conference Game of the Month on San Francisco. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05pm our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

[sportsman362008]

Big AL

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings plus the points over the Tennessee Titans. Take the points. NFL Game of the Month on the Vikings. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans plus the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars. AFC South Game of the Year on the Houston Texans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Frank Rosenthal

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB
911 PIRATES+140 SB
912 PADRES-145 SB
914 GIANTS-165 SB
917 RAYS+105 SB
920 COOKIES+105 SB
NOTE:
PMG=ADVERTISED PITCHERS MUST GO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL - WEEK 4
196 KC OVER 46 SB+
199 TEXANS+7 SB
201 CARDS+1.5 SB
OVER 43 SB
203 49ERS+4.5 SB
205 FALCONS+7 SB+
210 BUCS-1 SB+
213 CHARGERS-7 SB
215 SKINS+11 SB
218 BEARS+3 SB
UNDER 40 SB

[sportsman362008]

ATS Lock Club

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5 Eagles -3
5 San Diego -7
5 Packers +1.5,

3 Montreal -6 in Canadian Football

[Can'tPickaWinner]

From a friend

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Kevin Francis</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Sunday, September 28, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: We are currently on a 67-34 guaranteed winning run with all of our selections and today we have isolated ANOTHER NFL FOOTBALL WINNER! You can take advantage of our 5000* NFL BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE MONTH for just $25 and you will pay only after you win! Do Not Miss Out on the STRONGEST NFL PLAYS on this web site today!!!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>9/28/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>5000* NFL BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE MONTH
203 San Francisco +4 1:00 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Seabass Steam play

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->100* Carolina Panthers

[jagwood]

Scott Delaney

80 DIME TENNESSEE (in the event this line goes to 3-1/2, be sure to buy the 1/2-point off this game and lay -3 points against Minnesota. Do not lay 3-1/2 points.) - The age-old cliche that defense wins certainly applies well to the Titans (3-0 SU and ATS), who know a thing a or two about clamping down on opponents. Take the first three games of this season, for example: Tennessee has yielded 10, seven and 12 points in those matchups -- for an average of under 10 ppg. Or even go back to last season, when the Titans held eight opponents to two TDs or less.

They've got the league's third-best "D" this season, allowing just 240 ypg. And they've got a Vikings team coming to town that will start a 37-year-old journeyman QB in Gus Frerotte. That will allow Tennessee to focus more on slowing RB Adrian Peterson. The betting numbers bear out a Titans play this week, as well, as they are on ATS runs of 7-0 in September, 4-1 against losing teams and 4-1 overall.

And when NFC teams come to Nashville, Tennessee knows how to get the job done, with a 12-4 ATS mark in its last 16 home non-conference clashes. On the flip side, you've got Minnesota (1-2 SU and ATS), which has a sound defense, but its middle-of-the-pack offense (17th in the league) will put too much pressure on its defense to bail the Vikes out against the Titans. The Vikings have cashed just once in their last six games, and they don't respond well to non-conference roadies, going 0-5-1 ATS the last six times in that situation. Take the Titans this week.

10 DIME ARIZONA - The Cardinals' best move for this game might prove to be the one they didn't make -- flying back to Arizona after last Sunday's loss at Washington. Instead, they smartly stayed on the East Coast, rather than criss-crossing the nation a couple of times leading up to this game. And it's an even smarter move in light of the Jets not only coming off a short week, but off a coast-to-coast road trip, as New York got pelted in San Diego 48-29 on Monday night.

The Redbirds (2-1 SU and ATS) won and cashed in their first two games, and they were certainly in it last week against the Redskins, losing 24-17 on a fourth-quarter TD as a three-point road pup. Plus, Arizona is a good bounce-back team to bet, with ATS runs of 10-3 after a SU loss and 8-3 after a pointspread setback, and they're on a 6-1 ATS run in September contests. The Jets, meanwhile, have cashed in just two of their last nine home games, and with QB Brett Favre nursing a gimpy ankle, the Arizona defense will look to take advantage of that. The Cards are the play in this one.

10 DIME PHILADELPHIA - I think most people would consider the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger a solid NFL quarterback. He limits his mistakes, he gets his team to the playoffs, and he even got a Super Bowl ring in just his second season. So if Roethlisberger got his lunch eaten last week in a 15-6 loss at Philadelphia -- going 13 of 25 for a paltry 131 yards, with one INT, two lost fumbles and an eye-popping eight sacks -- how do you think Chicago QB Kyle Orton will fare against the Eagles defense this week? The guess here is, not too well.

The Eagles (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) are No. 1 in the league against the run, allowing a suffocating 45.7 ypg rushing. Should that trend continue this week, all the pressure falls on Orton and the passing game -- and Philly fields the league's fourth-best defense in total yards, at just 242 per game. Plus, Eagles QB Donovan McNabb (289.3 ypg passing) leads the NFL's sixth-best total offense (373 ypg). Add to that Philly's current 10-2 ATS tear on the highway, and the Bears' current 4-10 ATS freefall at home, and you've got to back the Eagles this week.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

friend sent this one as well:

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Andrew Powers</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Sunday, September 28, 2008
</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>9/28/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>LATE STEAM POWER PLAY NFL WINNER
210 Tampa Bay -1 1:00 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[sportsman362008]

Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, September 28, 2008

LATE STEAM POWER PLAY NFL WINNER
210 Tampa Bay -1 1:00 EST

[pacesetter]

Dr. Bob

2 Star Selections
HOUSTON TEXANS +7
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +5

[frankey]

who to bet on is putting out washington and chicago

[ymmit2nd]

Hammering Hank

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tenn
San Fran
Philly
Cinn
Houst

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Sixth Sense Sports

Denver –9.5 KANSAS CITY 47
DENVER 29 KANSAS CITY 20

CINCINNATI –3.5 Cleveland 44.5
CLEVELAND 21 CINCINNATI 13

JACKSONVILLE –7.5 Houston 42.5
JACKSONVILLE 30 HOUSTON 27

NY JETS –1.5 Arizona 44.5
ARIZONA 20 NY JETS 17

NEW ORLEANS –5 San Francisco 48
SAN FRANCISCO 27 NEW ORLEANS 20

CAROLINA –7 Atlanta 39.5
CAROLINA 20 ATLANTA 16

TENNESSEE –3 Minnesota 36
TENNESSEE 21 MINNESOTA 10

TAMPA BAY –1 Green Bay 42.5
TAMPA BAY 27 GREEN BAY 17

Buffalo –8 ST LOUIS 43
BUFFALO 30 ST LOUIS 14

San Diego –7.5 OAKLAND 45
SAN DIEGO 31 OAKLAND 25

DALLAS –11 Washington 46
DALLAS 27 WASHINGTON 21

Philadelphia –3 CHICAGO 40
CHICAGO 27 PHILADELPHIA 21

PITTSBURGH –5.5 Baltimore 33.5
PITTSBURGH 17 BALTIMORE 16


BEST BETS

YTD 13-3 +29.10%

3% CLEVELAND +3.5
3% SAN FRANCISCO +5
3% TENNESSEE –3
3% TAMPA BAY –1
3% CHICAGO +3
3% HOUSTON/JACKSONVILLE OVER 42.5

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Lisowski

5 Tennesee
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Northcoast
3'* T bay
3* Tenn
3* Car

Op---Under Philly, Den., Over Clev, Hst, SF & SD

Phil Steele
4* T Bay
3* Tenn
3* Car
3* Over Cinn
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[EagleFan]

BSS I don't see Budin in that Thread???

He asked that you put REQUESTS for plays in that thread. he is trying to use this thread for plays only as not to clutter up the thread with requests.

[KillaRSox]

Please post requests in the request and chatter section. Were trying to keep this thread strictly plays. I know this causes clutter too but thought i'd ask nicely.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Bob Balfe


NFL Football
Chiefs/Broncos Over 47
The Broncos have proved they can score, but they cant stop teams either. Kansas City is in need of a matchup against a soft defense. Arrowhead is always a tough place to play, but these are not your same dangerous Chiefs so I don't think it will slow Denver down. Kansas City will be without cornerback Patrick Surtain and really look to have no answer for Denver. KC will be going with Huard at QB today and I think he will be able to spark this offense for the first time this year. Look for a lot of points. Take the Over.

Bengals -3.5 over Browns
Ohio Football doesn't have much to cheer for these days. The loser of this game will be end their playoff hopes today. I like what I saw out of the Bengals last week against the Giants. The defense stepped up and the offense ran the ball and controlled the clock well. The Browns are a mess. There will be a QB change today and Cleveland has a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball. Both starting WR's are hurt. Stallworth wont even play in the game and on the other side of the ball Shaun Rogers is banged up, both outside linebackers are hurt and they have a weak and very young secondary. The Bengals are at least healthier on offense and at home should get the victory.

49ers +4.5 over Saints
The Saints will be slowed down on offense with FB Karney and TE Shockey out of the lineup. This really will effect the short passing and running game. The Saints starting LG Nesbit is out on a drug suspension and the LT Brown is banged up. WR Patten is also hurt. San Francisco is healthy and Frank Gore should run all over this weak defense. J.T. O'Sullivan should also have a huge game. This San Francisco team is very underrated. Take the 49ers.

Panthers -7 over Falcons
Atlanta has impressed me this season, but Matt Ryan on the road will struggle against a tough Panthers team at home. 3 of the 4 defensive linemen for the Falcons are on the injury list. They all probably will play, but they will not be 100%. The Falcons offense is very young which will allow the Panthers defense to confuse them all day and force turnovers. Atlanta has two very young corners which wont be able to keep up with Steve Smith when he gets into the open field. Look for Carolina to dominate. Take the Panthers.

Cowboys -11 over Redskins
These two teams hate each other and I personally think this is the biggest rivalry in the NFC. Dallas is going to put up their points, there is no doubt about that. The question will be if the Redskins can match them. I just do not think Jason Campbell has the big play ability in his game yet. Washington will be without their defensive leader Jason Taylor today. The Dallas O-Line is so much bigger than the Redskins D-Line which will open up the running game. Dallas should have no trouble scoring and should run away with this game around halftime. Take the Cowboys.

Bears +3 over Eagles
The Eagles injuries on offense are as bad as it gets. McNabb will be returning to his home town, but will not have the offensive weapons at 100%. The entire Eagles backfield is banged up or not playing. The Eagles have key players hurt on the offensive line and receiver injuries. Last week the Bears blew the game against the bucs when they committed a personal foul in overtime. Instead of the Bears getting the ball back around midfield the Bucs continued their drive and won the game. This Bears team proved it could play of the big stage when they beat up Indy on the road this year. I do not see how the Eagles will be able to put up many points. The Bears have a lot more experience up front then the Eagles do on defense and should be able to be two dimensional in running and passing to win this game. Take Chicago.
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

KBHOOPS

7* NFL Game of the Week Tampa Bay Bucs -1
5* Minnesota +3
4* Houston +7
4* Kansas City +9.5
4* Bears +3 (Sunday Night Football)
3* Cowboys -10.5
3* Rams +9
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Nsa 20 minn+3

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Sports MarketWatch
NFL Week 4 - Early Moves
9/26/2008 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 4

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 3 was a good day to be a sportsbook and a bad day to be the Public. JC, head lineman at Skybook, put it best, "The ball bounced our way on Sunday." All sportsbooks reported retaining over 2-4% of their handle. New England losing outright as -13 point favorite and the NY Giants, also 13 point favorites, needing overtime to defeat winless Cincinnati were big games for the books. But the game that really turned things around for the sportsbooks was Tampa Bay, pulling out a miracle against the Chicago Bears. It would have a huge day for the sportsbook had they not given back a lot of early gains on the Sunday Night game.

SportsInsights analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public took a bloodbath going 3-7, making the Public 12-16 for the season. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis continued its winning ways, going 3-0, 6-3 = 66.7% for the season. We're back on the positive side and look forward to padding the bankroll.

NFL WEEK 4
We anticipate Denver, Buffalo, and San Diego to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 4 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (6-3 = 66.7%)

213 San Diego Chargers at 214 Oakland Raiders

The public is overwhelmingly on San Diego in this match-up. The constant pounding of bets on San Diego (75% of sides and a huge 90% of teasers and parlays), has pushed the line off of the "key" number of 7. This is creating a nice value of Oakland +7.5 instead of the opener of +7.

We like cashing in on San Diego's impressive Monday Night win over the Jets. Oakland getting +7.5 points at home looks like a great value -- especially in a tough divisional match-up. Let's "bet against the public" and take the home dog.

Oakland Raiders +7.5 SportsInteraction +7.5

211 Buffalo Bills at 212 St. Louis Rams

Our offshore contacts circled this game due to Smart Money coming in on St. Louis. Including teaser and parlays, almost 80% of all bets are on Buffalo. Even so, early, and big Smart Money landed on St. Louis -- moving the line from its opener of Buffalo -9.5 to the more generally available -8. Our readers know that we will follow the Smart Money and especially like the big home underdogs.

St. Louis is 0-3 and has been outscored by almost 30 points per game this season. They weren't much better last year, going just 3-13. On the other hand, Buffalo has been "fast out of the gate," going 3-0. We often find value by taking the ugliest-looking games on the board and taking the ugly duckling. Last week, Miami showed us that on any given Sunday, anything is possible.

St. Louis Rams +8

195 Denver Broncos at 196 Kansas City Chiefs

This is our Pepto Bismol play of the day -- so take a shot of Pepto and put your hard-earned cash on KC. It goes against everything you think -- but that's exactly why these types of plays are profitable in the long run. Denver has started the season off 3-0, while KC is 0-3. This game looks ugly and the public is piling on Denver.

Almost 3 out of 4 "regular" side bets are coming in on Denver. The large point spread might be making some betters go to teasers and parlays -- where a huge, almost 90% of the bets are landing on Denver. In addition to our traditional philosophy of "betting against the public," we like this play for several other major factors:

KC is a huge home dog value, receiving 9.5 points.

Traditionally strong divisional rivalry.

We are "buying low" with KC and "selling high" with Denver.

Note also that both teams were mediocre last year. 9.5 points is a huge amount to cover.

Kansas City Chiefs +9.5 Skybook +9.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (6-3 = 66.7%)

Oakland Raiders +7.5 SportsInteraction +7.5
St. Louis Rams +8
Kansas City Chiefs +9.5 Skybook +9.5
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio
President

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Capone 20 jax-7

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Dennis Hill

50* System play Chiefs
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

LT's Lock

Vikings +3'

[eaglezzz]

Palmer #3 QB today for Cincy. Fitzpatrick to start. I bet people start jumping on Cleveland now

Line down to -1.5 now

[eaglezzz]

Also for the Cards Jets game. Weather report states 40% chance of thunderstorms. The under is looking good

[2DIMES]

NFL Plays for my brothers...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Take these today SU.....

SF/NO UNDER 48.5
WASH/DAL UNDER 46.5

Throw the above two totals with the following below for a 6 team parlay. I am not taking all of the below sides SU but I do like them, just not as much as the totals above.

Bears +3
Rams +8 (man they suck but the are due to cover & possibly win)
Raiders +7.5
Cheifs +8.5

parlay the above 6 for $20 to win $863

GL!!!
YOU CRAZY

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Two Minute Warning

Best Bets
Investor

Kansas City +9 1/2
Houston +7
San Francisco +5
Atlanta +7
San Diego -7 1/2
Philadelphia -3

Locals Line

TMW YTD 12-6
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK
50 DIME

CAROLINA PANTHERS
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[Dubya]

Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK
50 DIME

CAROLINA PANTHERS

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Oscarxena Sports

201 Arizona +1 +1.04 (3 Unit Play)
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[sportsman362008]

rocketman

5 tampa -1.5
4 san fran +4.5
3 houston +7
3 tenn -3
3 wash +11

confirmed..............

[Dubya]

rocketman

5 tampa -1.5
4 san fran +4.5
3 houston +7
3 tenn -3
3 wash +11

confirmed..............

[Dubya]

Roots Upset Club

Sunday, September 28, 2008
medium Kansas City Chiefs (+10) Denver Broncos
1:00 PM -- Arrowhead Stadium

medium Oakland Raiders (+7½) San Diego Chargers
.
medium Chicago Bears (+3) Philadelphia Eagles
8:15 PM -- Soldier Field


Also Millionaire Sunday Night GOY.......CHICAGO

[Can'tPickaWinner]

WINNERS EDGE

NFL:

NY JETS -1 , 2 units

TB BUCS -1 , 2 units

WASHINGTON REDSKINS + 10.5 , 1 unit
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[uscmd]

Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK
50 DIME

CAROLINA PANTHERS

This guy has been money!!!!

[Can'tPickaWinner]

docs sports
6-Unit Game of the Month. #201 Take Arizona +1 over New York (1 pm)


3 rams
3 san francisco<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Mike Volpe

NFL Football 3 Team Best Bet System
OVER 47 Chiefs
OVER 42 Bengals
UNDER 44 Jaguars

[sportsman362008]

Billy Coleman's
5* Under GB
4* SD
3* Wash
3* Philly
3* Under Atl

3* Angels--MLB

[Can'tPickaWinner]

*** EZWINNERS MLB ***

5 STAR: (926) MINNESOTA (-1.5)(-$125) over Kansas City
(Listing Baker and Duckworth)
Risking $625 to win $500
1:10PM Central Time<!-- / message -->

EZ Winners FB

3* Houston
3* Minn
3* Chicago