Service Plays Wednesday 10/1/08

[Can'tPickaWinner]

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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Jim Feist

(951) MIL Brewers
(952) PHI Phillies
Take "Over"
Philadelphia is not a pitcher's park. It's easy to hit home runs. For Game 1, the Phillies go with their ace in Cole Hamels. Only one team that Hamels pitched more than 12 innings against this season got more hits off him than innings pitched: The Brewers. They got 14 hits in 13 innings off him, with a 4.73 ERA -- higher than his 3.09 ERA for the season. These are two strong offensive teams, with the Brewers ranked 7th in the NL in runs scored, the Phillies third. Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo is only 22 years old and has pitched just 4 innings since May 2. The over is 5-2-1 the last 8 meetings between these teams. This shapes up as an offensive show in Philadelphia. Play the Brewers/Phillies over the total.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Bob Akmens

10* Boise St.
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[rocky2]

Bob Balfe MLB Playoffs

Major League Baseball
Phillies -1.5 runs over Brewers +111
Hamels/Gallardo

Angels -125 over Redsox
Lackey/Lester

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Dave Malinsky

10/1/2008

3* PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (**SERIES**)-175 over Milwaukee Brewers (**SERIES**)

The Brewers are a most fragile item heading into playoffs. Instead of being a confident side that has the momentum of achieving a post-season berth, they did not play well at all down the stretch, merely riding the massive shoulders of C. C. Sabathia to get here. Note that they were 6-14 in the last 20 games that were not started by Sabathia, and that with Ben Sheets injured, and without a closer that they can rely on under this pressure, the pitching is a mess. Yovani Gallardo becomes the go-to guy for the opener, despite only having thrown 67 pitches since May 1st, a four-inning stint vs. the weak Pirate offense last week. Then, of course, it becomes C. C. time again, but on Thursday he will be pitching on three days rest for the 4th straight time, including an exhausting 122 pitches vs. the Cubs under that intense Sunday pressure. The Phillies bring a 13-3 run into this series, and can make things happen in so many ways, not just with the lumber on offense, but that terrific 136-161 in stolen base opportunities. We believe that will be the biggest factor in this series, as they run a mediocre (outside of Sabathia) pitching staff ragged, and it would not be a surprise at all if this one ended quickly. They dominated the Brewers by a commanding 26-10 in a four-game home sweep in September, and this picks up right where that left off.


4* LOS ANGELES ANGELS(**SERIES**)-125 over Boston Red Sox (**SERIES**)

If you win 100 games during the regular season, despite playing through a slew of injuries that likely prevented several more W?s from being added, and have the home field advantage, you should be favored by significantly more than the Angels are for this series. But the magic of the Red Sox name rears its head again, even though they bring significant issues to the table this time. Instead of Josh Beckett being the horse that Boston will ride in the post-season, we will not see him until game #3 at the earliest, and his effectiveness is an issue. J. D. Drew and Mike Lowell? Also cloudy pictures. And it absolutely must be factored in just what the home field disadvantage means to a team that was 56-25 in Fenway Park this season, but just 39-42 on the road. But even Fenway is not the usual advantage, with the Angels going 5-1 there this season, part of an 8-1 head-to-head in which seven of those wins came by multiple runs. The better team in this price range is impossible to pass up.
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty split with the Twins and Florida Atlantic ( 3) Tuesday night.

Today it's the Red Sox (Game 1) and Red Sox, Cubs and Phillies (series).
The deficit is 150 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

WILD BILL

1st Round NL & AL Divisional Series

Red Sox +110 (5 units)
Cubs -210 (1 unit)
Phils -150 (1 unit)
White Sox (2 units)

[Can'tPickaWinner]

BIG AL

Los Angeles over Boston in the Playoff Series

The Angels had the best record in baseball this season, and have not gone through many droughts this year. And Boston will find life difficult in the post-season without superstar Manny Ramirez.

PLAY ANGELS IN THE SERIES.
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Doc’s MLB Playoff Opening Pick

3 Unit Play. #952 Take Philadelphia (-1 ½ RL) over Milwaukee (2:00 pm TBS)

[SiberianExpress]

Can'tPickaWinner, do you or anyone else have maddux sports? Thanks.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Insider Sports Report

L.A. Angels -120 over Boston (MLB)

[Can'tPickaWinner]

cappers access

Wed (CFB) Louisiana Tech

Wed (MLB) Cubs

[Can'tPickaWinner]

DCI

Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Western Athletic Conference
BOISE STATE 31, Louisiana Tech 9

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Rocco Spacamuro

50 * Boise State game over 55

[B.S.S.]

weird thing happened. i played the white sox and fla atl +3.. then sort of chickened out and bet a "safety net parlay" of the twins +1.5 and mid ten -150 to win the game.. hit all 3 bets with the impossible middle... shocking.
Soumi

[ymmit2nd]

The Sharp Moves


Oskeim:
Los Angeles Angels (-125) over Boston Red Sox*

*Please list both Jon Lester and John Lackey

Los Angeles finished the regular season standing at a profitable 50-31 at home, 33-16 versus left-handed starters, 69-51 at night and 94-555 on grass, whereas the Red Sox were a money-burning 39-42 on the road (-6.4 units) and allowed an alarming 5.9 runs per game over their last seven contests. John Lackey toes the rubber for Los Angeles and is 12-5 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.224 WHIP this season, including consecutive quality starts versus Boston against whom he allowed a combined five runs over 16 innings of work in 2008. Conversely, Jon Lester takes the mound for Boston and he is 1-1 with a career 7.78 ERA and 2.136 WHIP versus the Angels, including his last two starts wherein he yielded a combined nine runs and 17 hits over just 8 1/3 innings of work.

The Angels success this season was predicated upon excellent pitching and defense. Indeed, Los Angeles is limiting opponents to a paltry 4.3 runs per game this season, including 4.4 runs per game at home, 4.4 runs per game at night and 3.8 runs per game versus southpaws. Moreover, the Angels' bullpen has compiled an impressive 3.67 ERA and 1.338 WHIP, including a 3.54 ERA and 1.275 WHIP at home.

Lay the reasonable number and invest with confidence

[ymmit2nd]

The Sharp Moves


Offshore Elite:
OFFSHORE ELITE

WEDNESDAY OCT 1st
MLB
CHICAGO CUBS

[th7rose]

any northcoast for tonight?

[rocky2]

Brandon Lang

WEDNESDAY

5 Dime Brewers
5 Dime Angels
5 Dime Louisiana Tech

[rocky2]

Ben Burns
Blue Chip - Angels Under
Annihilator - Cubs

[rocky2]

Wuderdog

We open the MLB playoffs with three plays including a 4-unit pick. We enter the playoffs on a 60% run (9-6), good for +13.4 units over the last week.

We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play. Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Milwaukee at Philadelphia (3:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Philadelphia -203 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 8.5 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)

The Phillies will take on the Brewers to open the NL playoffs. Cole Hamels gets the ball for the Phillies and although the Brewers have been tough on lefthanders, Hamels hasn't been one of them. Hamels has made two starts at home against the Brewers, including one three weeks ago where he allowed just two runs over 6.1 innings. His home starts against the Brewers shows just eight hits allowed in 14.1 innings with 16 k's and a brilliant 2.51 ERA. The Brewers did not get to align their rotation for the playoffs because they did not clinch until the last day of the season. They will go with Yovani Gallardo who, because of a series of injuries threw just 24 innings all season. Gallardo has good stuff, but he is not ready to pitch very deep into games. Off of one four-inning start in September, I would be surprised if he locates well in this one, so the pitching matchup goes to Hamels here as well as the bullpen edge where the Phillies have the top pen in the NL with a 3.21 ERA. I also like the UNDER as the Phillies have their ace with a solid history against the Brewers. He is backed by a top bullpen and all four of Gallardo's starts this season have gone UNDER as well.

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (6:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total OVER 7.5 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)

The NL post season opens in Chicago where the Cubs seek a World Series title in the hopes of breaking the 100 year drought. It will be Ryan Dempster of the Cubs against Derek Lowe of the Dodgers. Although this matchup looks like a pitchers duel, strong evidence supports otherwise. The Dodgers are 25-12 to the OVER against a pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or less over the last two seasons. The Cubs have been 20-10 to the OVER against a pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or less this season. That makes for a combined 45-22 pointing to the OVER, so I will play this one to go over the total.
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[rocky2]

Sebastian:
10* Dodgers, Angels
100* Boise State -24

MLB Series Plays
20* Phillies
10* Dodgers
10* White Soxs

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[rocky2]

Western Athletic Conference

BOISE ST. (-22.5) 44 Louisiana Tech 10

05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Oct-01
Boise State is 38-15 ATS all-time at home, including 18-2 ATS in conference home games when not laying 26 points or more (26-7 ATS in all conference home games). I certainly don’t mind backing that trend with a very good Boise State team that is even better than normal offensively with freshman Kellen Moore at quarterback and also very strong defensively (4.4 yards per play allowed teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Moore certainly proved himself with a fantastic 24 for 36 passing for 386 yards and 9.7 yards per pass play against a very good Oregon secondary and the Broncos’ defense held the Ducks’ great rushing attack to just 4.8 yards per rushing play in their upset road win in Eugene (Oregon would average 5.7 yprp at home against an average defensive team). Louisiana Tech started the season with an upset win over a bad Mississippi State team, but they were out-gained 3.7 yppl to 4.9 yppl in that game. The Bulldogs followed that misleading victory with a 0-29 loss at Kansas that was actually more lopsided than the score indicates, as Louisiana Tech was out-gained 4.5 yppl to 7.6 yppl in that game. Overall, Louisiana Tech has been out-gained 4.7 yppl to 5.9 yppl despite facing teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl and allow 6.2 yppl against an average team. Louisiana Tech has had some big special teams play to atone for their bad play from the line of scrimmage, but Boise State traditionally has strong special teams and my math favors the Broncos by 34 points even with Louisiana Tech having a solid special teams advantage. Louisiana Tech has allowed an average of 334 passing yards at 6.9 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average just 5.5 yppp against an average team. Moore, meanwhile, has averaged 9.8 yppp against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback (after adjusting for Oregon being without starting CB Thurmond when they played Boise). Moore and the Boise State offense will have an easy time throwing the football and the Broncos rarely let up at home. I just don’t see how Louisiana Tech is going to score more than a couple of times in this game given that quarterback Taylor Bennett has completed just 26 of 73 passes in two games against Division 1A competition (Miss State and Kansas) and the Bulldogs’ rush attack is 0.8 yards per rushing play below average (4.7 yprp against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp to an average team). The Bulldogs averaged just 268 total yards at 4.0 yppl against Miss State and Kansas and Boise State is much better defensively than either of those teams. I’ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less and for 3-Stars at -21 or less.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

[rocky2]

Doc

3 Unit Play. #952 Take Philadelphia (-1 ½ RL) +100 over Milwaukee (3:00 pm TBS)


3 Unit Play. #954 Take Over 7 in Los Angeles @ Chicago (6:35 pm TBS)


3 Unit Play. #956 Take Los Angeles -125 over Boston (10:05 pm TBS)

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Jimmy The Moose

Game: Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
Oct 1 2008 10:05PM

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

Reason: The Red Sox will open the series with Jon Lester on the mound and not the injured Josh Beckett. Lester has been rock solid this season and will need to be on his game tonight if he wants to beat the Angeles. LAA will send John Lackey to the mound tonight to face a team that he used to struggle against but may have gotten over that this season. Lackey has a career 3-6 carrer record vs. Boston but this season he's 2-0 vs. the Red Sox with a 2.81 ERA. Two very good team's meet up in this series but this season the Angels have held the significant edge when the clubs have met. The Angels are a perfect 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Los Angeles Angels -.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Tom Freese

Game: Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
Oct 1 2008 10:05PM

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

Reason: Boston is 41-18 in the last 59 starts made by Jon Lester and they are 19-7 their last 26 Playoff games. The Red Sox are 10-2 in Game 1 of a series and they are 37-16 after a day off. Los Angeles starter John Lackey is 3-11 in 14 career team starts vs. the Red Sox. The Angels are 0-7 their last 7 playoff games and they are 1-4 in the last 5 starts made by Lackey and he has allowed 23 runs in his last 26.1 innings of work. PLAY ON BOSTON (Lester vs. Lackey)

[Can'tPickaWinner]

ARTHUR RALPH

Wednesday
Boise State

[Can'tPickaWinner]

The Vegas Steam Line

Wednesday: Take the Chicago Cubs (Dempster) -155 over the LA Dodgers

[jbragg10]

Western Athletic Conference

BOISE ST. (-22.5) 44 Louisiana Tech 10

05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Oct-01
I’ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less and for 3-Stars at -21 or less.[/B]<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

this looks like dr. bob ... is that right?

[RazorMX]

Mike rose or NSA ?

[Can'tPickaWinner]

GINA

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies

Milwaukee Brewers have lost the last five meetings versus the Philadelphia Phillies and 21 of the last 27. Go with Philadelphia at home. The Brewers are just 2-8 in their last 10 road games and have struggle at Citizens Bank Park, dropping eight of their last 9.


Philadelphia Phillies - 200

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Mr A

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs

Los Angeles Dodgers would love to seize a victory at Wrigley Field, but will have to confront Ryan Dempster tonight. The right-hander has performed impressively at home, 14-3 with a 2.86 ERA in his last 20 home starts and 17-4 in his last 21. Take the Cubs. The Dodgers are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in the Windy City.

Chicago Cubs -150
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

STAT FOX / THE PLATINUM SHEET

LOUISIANA TECH at BOISE ST

It seems that Boise State may be as good as ever, and from early returns, it would appear that Louisiana Tech is also falling into its usual patterns of performance. From a historical perspective that means there could be good value with the Broncos this weekend in the made for TV Wednesday night special. Boise has had its way with Tech on the home turf, winning three games by an average of 36.0 PPG. The only reason they are only 2-1 ATS in those contests is because they’ve been favored by a whopping 29.8 on average. The Broncos have scored 55, 55, & 36 points the last three times they’ve hosted LT. With the Bulldogs allowing 442 YPG and 5.9 YPP, I’d say there is a great chance Boise scores well above 40 points again. This trend says a lot:LOUISIANA TECH is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.The average score was LOUISIANA TECH 12.9, OPPONENT 48.2 - (Rating = 2*).Don’t be scared of the number here, as Tech is one of the worst road underdogs in all of college football, being outscored by a 43.2-11.4 margin in their L14 opportunities (3-11 ATS).Play: Boise St -21.5
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Pick logic

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
Sport: Major League Baseball
Date: Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Time: 7:05 PM Pacific time
Selection: Los Angeles Angels, -126

Remember: PickLogic baseball picks are NOT dependent on any specific pitchers; if at all possible, be sure to specify this when you're placing your bet.

A few notes to keep in mind:

If the line moves up or down (from -150 to -160 or -140), you should still take the game. The ONLY time you should disregard the selection is if the line moves over -200.

The wager amount specified is what you should RISK, not what you're trying to win. If the bet amount is $100 and the line is -130, you're risking $100 to win around $77. If the line was +120, you're betting $100 to win $120.
Good luck!

The PickLogic Team
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Nathan Armstrong
Highprofitsports

4* Primetime Total Of The Week
La Tech/boise St Over 56
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

JB's Computer Plays

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Time Game Selections

3:00 p.m. Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
(R) Yovani Gallardo (0-0) vs. (L) Cole Hamels (0-0) Philadelphia Phillies -200
6:30 p.m. Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
(R) Derek Lowe (0-0) vs. (R) Ryan Dempster (0-0) Chicago Cubs -155
10:00 p.m. Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
(L) Jon Lester (0-0) vs. (R) John Lackey (0-0) Los Angeles Angels -125
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

WINNERS EDGE-10/1/08

MLB:

Dodgers + 130 , 2 units

Redsox/Angels over 8.5 (-105) , 2 units


CFB:

Boise St/ La Tech under 56.5 , 3 units
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Bettorsworld

MLB SERIES PLAYS

You can't make long term gains laying high priced favorites in any sport. You need to concentrate on finding underdogs with value or short priced favs. Betting on a MLB playoff series is no different. With that in mind, as we look at the 3 MLB playoff series with prices posted, we would automatically throw out the Phillies and Cubs. The prices are too high for us to get involved. We'd only consider playing the Brewers or Dodgers in those series. Of the two, the Dodgers present much more value and the series holds some intrigue with Torre managing in the Playoffs for the 13th straight years. The Dodgers are a live dog here. The Cubs took the regular season series 5-2 but Manny Ramirez wasn't there. Manny is the wild card here. The Dodgers have a very good chance to steal a game in Chicago which would also open the door for hedging opportunities for the faint of heart. The better team generally wins out over the course of a 7 game series but the short 5 game first round series opens the door for upsets. We're going to make a 2* play on the Dodgers to win the series at +190 or better.

We're also going to play the Angels to win the series over the Bosox at-120 or better. The Bosox are banged up, Beckett is hurt, and the Angels simply dominated the Sox this year going 8-1 against them. The Angels are the better team and the price is right. If we get a chance we'll have a more thorough write up posted on Bettorsworld tomorrow.

So two Series plays

2* Dodgers +190 over the Cubs

3* Angels -120 over the Bosox
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

SPORTS ADVISORS

Milwaukee (90-72) at Philadelphia (92-70)

Back in the postseason for the first time in more than a quarter century, the Brewers will send youngster Yovani Gallardo (0-0, 1.88 ERA) to the mound against the Phillies, who will counter with ace Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09) in Game 1 of a best-of-5 playoff series at Citizens Bank Park.

Milwaukee edged out the Mets for the National League wild card, topping the Cubs 3-1 on Sunday while New York was losing 4-2 to Florida. The Brewers, who haven’t played meaningful October baseball since losing to the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1982 World Series, lost 15 of their first 19 games in September, but closed on a 6-1 run. However, they did lose eight of their 10 road games in September.

Philadelphia began its late-season push to its second straight N.L. East title with a four-game sweep of the Brewers from Sept. 11-14. Beginning with that series, the Phillies won 13 of their final 16 games, going 8-2 at home during this surge. Philadelphia, which has reached the postseason in consecutive years for the first time since 1980-81, was on the wrong end of a three-game first-round playoff sweep against the Rockies last season, getting outscored 16-8. The Phillies haven’t won a postseason game since 1993.

Milwaukee beat the Phillies 5-4 in the first meeting of the season back on April 23, but the Phillies won the last five by the combined tally of 29-11, holding the Brewers to three runs or fewer in all five wins. Milwaukee is just 5-15 all-time at Citizens Bank Park, including 1-8 in the last nine.

Gallardo missed the first three weeks of the season with an injury, then after three outstanding starts (four earned runs allowed in 20 innings), the right-hander blew out his knee in his team’s 4-3 win at Chicago on May 1. After lengthy rehab, he returned on Thursday to face the Pirates and went four innings, giving up a run on three hits with two walks and seven strikeouts, failing to get a decision in the Brewers’ 5-1 victory.

Gallardo, who started 17 games as a rookie last season, is 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA in 11 career games (10 starts) on the road, compared with 4-3 with a 4.24 ERA in Milwaukee. In his lone career start against Philadelphia last year, he gave up one run on four hits in 6 2/3 innings, walking one and striking out seven in a 2-1 home victory.

Hamels closed out a solid 2007 season with a 3-2 home loss to the Braves on Sept. 23, giving up all three runs (two earned) in seven innings. Hamels surrendered two earned runs or fewer in 22 of his 33 starts, including nine of his last 10, but the Phillies are just 5-6 in the southpaw’s 11 starts since the beginning of August.

Hamels is 7-7 despite a 2.99 ERA in 17 starts at Citizens Bank Park this year and 2-1 with a 4.41 ERA in five career starts against the Brewers, including a 7-3 home win on Sept. 13 when he gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings. However, he suffered a 5-4 loss at Milwaukee in April, giving up all five runs in seven innings. Finally, in his only career playoff start last October, Hamels gave up three runs on three hits and four walks in 6 2/3 innings, losing 4-2 to the Rockies at home.

The over is 5-2-1 in the eight series meetings between these teams (2-0-1 in Philly this year). Also, the over is 10-4-1 in the Phillies’ last 14 at Citizens Bank and 5-2-3 in Milwaukee’s last nine on the highway.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER


L.A. Dodgers (84-78) at Chicago Cubs (97-64)

The Cubs begin their quest for their first world championship in 100 years when they send Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96) to the Wrigley Field mound for Game 1 of this best-of-5 series against the Dodgers and Derek Lowe (14-11, 3.24).

The Cubs cruised to their second straight N.L. Central crown and finished the season with the National League’s best overall record and best home mark (55-26). However, Chicago, which split its final 12 regular-season contests, got swept in the best-of-5 divisional round against the Diamondbacks last year, getting outscored 16-6. The Cubs haven’t won the World Series since 1908 or even played in the Fall Classic since 1945, and they’re looking to return to the N.L. Championship Series for the first time since 2003.

Los Angeles used an 18-5 run down the stretch to leapfrog Arizona and win the N.L. West title in manager Joe Torre’s first year with the club. The Dodgers, who won 10 of their final 15 road games, have reached the playoffs four times since winning the 1988 World Series, losing all four series while winning just one of 13 postseason games.

The Cubs beat the Dodgers five times in seven tries in the regular season, including sweeping a three-game set at Wrigley Field in late May by the combined tally of 8-3, with L.A. scoring a single run in all three contests.

Dempster, who returned to the starting rotation this year after several seasons as Chicago’s closer, was far and away the Cubs’ best pitcher at Wrigley Field this year, going 14-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 17 starts. The veteran right-hander gave up three earned runs or fewer in 27 of his 33 outings overall, including holding 22 of those foes to two runs or fewer. He went 7-2 with a 2.52 ERA in his 13 starts after the All-Star break.

Dempster faced the Dodgers twice this year, giving up a combined four runs and 13 hits in 12 1/3 innings, winning 3-1 at home and getting a no-decision in Chicago’s 5-4 victory in Los Angeles. For his career, he’s 4-3 with a 3.01 ERA and six saves in 19 career appearances (nine starts) against the Dodgers. Finally, Dempster’s playoff experience is limited to one perfect inning of relief last year against Arizona, striking out two.

Lowe closed the regular season with a flourish, giving up just six total runs in his last nine starts covering 57 2/3 innings, good for a 0.94 ERA. He also went 3-1 with a 1.23 ERA in his last five outings on the road to finish 5-6 with a 4.42 ERA in 17 starts away from Dodger Stadium.

Lowe went 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts against the Cubs in 2008, giving up three runs on 10 hits in 14 innings, with the Dodgers winning at home and losing on the highway. For his career, Lowe is 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA in eight starts against Chicago. Finally, Lowe has a ton of postseason experience, going 4-4 with a 3.34 ERA in 18 appearances (seven starts) totaling 67 1/3 innings.

The under was 5-2 in the seven Cubs-Dodgers clashes this year, including 3-0 at Wrigley Field. Also, four of Dempster’s last five starts overall have stayed low, and the under is 9-3-1 in Lowe’s last 13 outings against N.L. Central foes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS and UNDER


A.L. DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS

Boston (95-67) at L.A. Angels (100-62)

The Red Sox and Angels clash in the first round of the playoffs for the third time since 2004, with Los Angeles looking to finally get over the hump against Boston. John Lackey (12-5, 3.75) takes the ball for the Halos in Game 1 at home against Red Sox southpaw Jon Lester (16-6, 3.21).

Although the Angels got the best of the Red Sox in the regular season in 2008, winning eight of nine clashes, Boston has had L.A.’s number in the postseason, sweeping Mike Scioscia’s club in the divisional round in 2004 and 2007 en route to winning the World Series both times. The BoSox also won a seven-game A.L. Championship Series against the Angels in 1986 and enter tonight with a nine-game postseason winning streak in this rivalry.

Los Angeles was the first team to clinch a playoff berth and finished with baseball’s best record, posting an identical 50-31 mark both at home and on the road. Despite wrapping up a playoff berth early, the Angels still won 13 of their last 18 games, including a pair of five-game winning streaks.

The Red Sox, who outscored the Angels 19-4 in last year’s playoff sweep en route to the World Series title, claimed the A.L. wild-card berth this season by going 19-10 in September. However, Terry Francona’s club struggled on the road in 2008, going 39-42 (compared with 56-25 at Fenway Park). The Sox lost all three games at Angel Stadium back in July, getting outscored 20-8.

The last time Lester was on the mound in October, he was leading Boston to a World Series-clinching victory over the Rockies, scattering three hits and three walks over 5 2/3 innings, winning 4-3 in Game 4. In all, Lester appeared in three postseason games last year, allowing two runs, six hits and four walks in 9 1/3 innings (1.93 ERA).

Lester gave up one run or less in five of his last six regular-season efforts, and Boston went 22-11 in his 33 starts. However, the Sox were only 7-9 in Lester’s 16 starts on the road, with the young lefty going 5-5 with a 4.09 ERA (as opposed to 11-1 with a 2.49 ERA at home). Finally, Lester has struggled in four career starts against Los Angeles, going 1-1 with a 7.78 ERA, including 1-0 with an 8.64 ERA in two outings at Angel Stadium.

Lackey went 11-2 with a 2.95 ERA in his first 19 starts, with the Angels winning 14 of those games. However, the big right-hander stumbled down the stretch, going 1-3 with a 7.96 ERA in his last five trips to the mound. In fact, his worst outing of the season came Friday at home against Texas, when he got drilled for 10 runs on 12 hits in just 2 2/3 innings, losing 12-1.

With Friday’s disastrous outing, Lackey ended up 5-3 with a 4.29 ERA in 12 home starts this season. On the bright side, he dominated Boston in two starts this year (2-0, 2.81 ERA) after going 1-7 with a 6.24 ERA in 12 previous regular-season outings against the Red Sox. Finally, Lackey is 2-2 with a 3.63 ERA in nine career postseason appearances (seven starts) with the Angels, but one of those losses came against the Red Sox last October when he yielded four runs on nine hits in six innings in a 4-0 loss at Boston in Game 1.

The under is 9-3 in L.A.’s last 12 home games and 4-1 in Boston’s last five contests overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS


COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Louisiana Tech (2-1, 1-1 ATS) at (17) Boise State (3-0, 1-1 ATS)

Boise State returns to action for the first time since an impressive upset win at Oregon, with the Broncos opening Western Athletic Conference play against Louisiana Tech.

The Broncos took advantage of four turnovers at Oregon on Sept. 20 and jumped out to a 37-13 lead heading into the fourth quarter, then held off a furious Ducks rally to win 37-32 as a 10-point road underdog. Going back to September 2005, Chris Peterson’s squad is 35-5 SU, including 22-2 in the WAC, but just 13-10-1 ATS in league play.

Louisiana Tech bounced back from an ugly 29-0 loss at Kansas on Sept. 6 with a 41-26 rout of Division I-AA Southeastern Louisiana in a non-lined home game on Sept. 20. The Bulldogs have alternated wins and losses in their last seven games, going 1-4 ATS in their last five lined contests.

Louisiana Tech won the first four meetings with the Broncos from the mid-1990s to 2001, but Boise State has controlled this series since, winning six in a row (3-3 ATS) by an average of 24 points per game. Last year, the Broncos went to Louisiana and struggled for three quarters before finally putting the Bulldogs away 45-31, failing to cash as a 16½-point road chalk as La-Tech found the end zone with 90 seconds to play to get the backdoor cover.

The last two times Boise has hosted the Bulldogs, it won by identical 55-14 final scores, cashing easily both times. In fact, the host is 7-2 ATS (5-4 SU) in this rivalry since 1997.

Behind the strong play of quarterback Kellen Moore (71.8 percent completion rate, 840 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT), Boise State’s explosive offense is putting up 35.3 points and 448.7 total yards per game, including 306 yards through the air and 142.7 yards on the ground. Defensively, the Broncos yield 15.3 points and 326 total yards per contest, but 148.3 rushing ypg.

The Bulldogs have been outscored (23 ppg-21 ppg) and outgained (445-328) on the season, but they do hold a commanding rushing edge, outrushing foes 164-97. However, Louisiana Tech has struggled in a big way in the passing game, producing just 163.7 ypg in the air and allowing opposing QBs to throw for 348 ypg.

Boise State has won all 28 of its WAC home games since joining the conference in 2001, and the school is 14-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in weekday regular-season contests (10-0 SU, 7-1 ATS at home). Additionally, the Broncos are on ATS streaks of 37-16-1 on the blue turf and 4-1 in WAC play.

On the other hand, Louisiana Tech is mired in pointspread funks of 9-22 on the highway, 6-24-1 after a SU win, 6-20 versus teams with a winning record and 5-12 after a bye.

The over is 4-1 in the last five series clashes between these teams, 5-2 in Boise’s last seven in October and 15-6-1 in La-Tech’s last 22 in October. Conversely, the under is on runs of 4-0 for the Bulldogs overall, 6-2 for the Bulldogs on the highway, 5-2 for the Bulldogs in conference, 4-0 for the Bulldogs after a bye and 4-1 for Boise State in WAC action.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOISE STATE
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

NSA

20* Boise st
10* la tec/boise under

10* mil/phi over
10* lad
10* laa
10* bos/laa over

[thedegen]

T. Covers or Rob Veno?

[tbarney]

NSA

20* Boise st
10* la tec/boise under

10* mil/phi over
10* lad
10* laa
10* bos/laa over



thanks cpaw...the plays from these guys on a daily basis are MUCH appreciated!!!!

[podsports]

INDIANCOWBOY COMP

La Tech/Boise State Under 56.6

It's not like I'm overly thrilled with the under here, but it is my lean and consequently my comp pick today. This is a WAC Contest and features La Tech on the road at Boise State. The line originally opened up at -19.5 and has quickly jumped to -23 on this weeknight football game. The total originally opened up at 53 and has jumped up to 56. La Tech actually covered this game last year as they fell short by 14 points at home, were active dogs and the game went over the 53.5. Boise State has covered the -36.5 and -24.5 the previous years they have had this game at Boise. Note, both games at Boise went over as well. Kellen Moore has thrown for 5 td's and a pick while completing over 70% of his passes and Boise State currently sits at 18th in the country. Note, that the Bronco defense gave up just 7 points to Bowling Green and Idaho State at home. La Tech on the other hand didn't put up a point on the road at Kansas. People love Boise State and the over here by over margins of 66% and I know the total has taken a spike up. Regardless, it is tough to wager against Boise State at home - but this is a conference game and Boise State could be in for a let down where they don't play well in the first half. Regardless, I wouldn't be surprised to see an under here because it is conference play similar to yesterday and the public is well over 70% on the over. La Tech is a young team on the road so I don't see them necessarily plowing away the points, nor do I see Boise State letting too many points being scored at home. The under is 4-0 for the Bulldogs of La Tech after a bye week and the under is 4-1 for the Broncos in conference games. Lean and comp pick on the under today.

[sdf]

Power Sweep (is there a newsletter section this week?)

http://www.zshare.net/download/197058928b533c06/

[th7rose]

northcoast play tonight??

[aaronjacob]

Looks like Bob Valentino has a 30dime play today, he is on 22-7 run. It's between angels and redsox.

[ymmit2nd]

The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, October 01, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: We are now 80-43 for +30.1 Units this year in Baseball playing ONE UNIT PER GAME! Today we are featuring 5000* BASEBALL DIAMOND CONSENSUS TOTALS WINNER as ALL FIVE of our handicappers are on this game and ALL FIVE of them are making this game a BEST BET!! The Computer Simulator gives our play an 87% chance of winning! Get this GUARANTEED WINNER for $25! WE ARE ON A 11-1 RUN!!! 10/1/2008

5000* BASEBALL DIAMOND CONSENSUS TOTALS WINNER
UNDER 8.5 Boston and LA Angels 10:05 EST

[ymmit2nd]

Johnny Guild

Boise State -24'

[ymmit2nd]

Friends Of Mike Lee
3* La Angels -130

[Nigel44]

Maddux Sports (11-1 Last Four Days)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
Phils/Brew Un8 .5<o:p></o:p>
Cubs -150<o:p></o:p>
Angels -130<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>

[B.S.S.]

50 do you have the other consensus play?

[Jr Boy]

maddux football?

[Budha Kane]

mike rose

mil over 8 1/2 -15 2*
lad under 7 e 3*
laa - 1 1/2 +65 2*

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Pure Lock

Boise St -24½

[Nigel44]

I had to choose Maddux baseball or football. Someone else will have to get that one. GL!

N44

[Sports Funatic]

Wed, 10/01/08 - 6:35 PMvegas-runner | MLB Money Line Triple-Dime Bet
954 CHC (-148) Sportsbetting.com vs 953 LOS
Analysis:
*** MLB PLAYOFFS 3* GAME of the WEEK ***
(Dempster vs Lowe)

[Sports Funatic]

Wed, 10/01/08 - 6:35 PMvegas-runner | MLB Total Single-Dime Bet
954 CHC / 953 LOS Over 7 SportBet
Analysis: * 1* TOTAL * (OVER -120...Dempster vs Lowe)

[Dubya]

Ats financial

3* over boise st

[B.S.S.]

Anyone Get Brent Crow.
His Football Says He Is 40-14??
Thats Nuts....

[jblonghorn]

Wed, 10/01/08 - 6:35 PMvegas-runner | MLB Money Line Triple-Dime Bet
954 CHC (-148) Sportsbetting.com vs 953 LOS
Analysis:
*** MLB PLAYOFFS 3* GAME of the WEEK ***
(Dempster vs Lowe)

Will someone tell me how VR's been on baseball these last couple of months? How are his "Game of the week" plays? Thanks in advance.

[JD11]

Will someone tell me how VR's been on baseball these last couple of months? How are his "Game of the week" plays? Thanks in advance.


his baseball has been very good, his football has been god awful.

[Peterex]

Anyone Get Brent Crow.
His Football Says He Is 40-14??
Thats Nuts....

Hasnt got any play 4 today..:think2:

[B.S.S.]

Hasnt got any play 4 today..:think2:
guess he aint pressing.. hope he is here this weekend.

[aaronjacob]

Never heard about him before, did we ever have his play here?? I didn't think so...

[sheetplayer]

Anyone Get Brent Crow.
His Football Says He Is 40-14??
Thats Nuts....
why would you want to follow someone who is sooo due for a correction..talking about missing the wedding but being there for the funeral.

[sheetplayer]

Never heard about him before, did we ever have his play here?? I didn't think so...he is another solid member of the sportsmemo crew, he is not that great of a football capper but his top selections,20* and superplays, always do well. He is very strong in college hoops, especially when he puts up a 20*

[B.S.S.]

Never heard about him before, did we ever have his play here?? I didn't think so...
you clearly know little about the industry

[aaronjacob]

he is another solid member of the sportsmemo crew, he is not that great of a football capper but his top selections,20* and superplays, always do well. He is very strong in college hoops, especially when he puts up a 20*


Thanks for the info, on his website he states that he is 40-14 this football season though which is not bad.

[sheetplayer]

Thanks for the info, on his website he states that he is 40-14 this football season though which is not bad.
Not Bad..are you serious? You think anyone can keep up a pace like that? I suspect he will barely break 50% for the remainder of the season which will put him around 56% when all is said and done ,which is where he always lands.

[B.S.S.]

Not Bad..are you serious? You think anyone can keep up a pace like that? I suspect he will barely break 50% for the remainder of the season which will put him around 56% when all is said and done ,which is where he always lands.
i hear ya.. i'm always trying to catch lightning in a bottle.

[aaronjacob]

That's not bad SO FAR this season, I didn't say he will keep it up like that in the future, did I?

[sheetplayer]

i hear ya.. i'm always trying to catch lightning in a bottle.
hey i could be wrong, maybe he has that once in a lifetime season, but a regression to the mean is the more likely path for BC...do follow his college hoops 20* though..very very solid.

[Peterex]

guess he aint pressing.. hope he is here this weekend.

Yeah, lot of touts passing today.

[moneyiswhatiwant]

Dives Handicapping

Los Angeles Dodgers

[sportsman362008]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Cubs
Millionaire- Angels

[sportsman362008]

northcoast wed nite marquee - BOISE

[Anastasius4]

Yeah, lot of touts passing today.


that is a cop out, if you are handicaapper, you are paid to have an opinion, my grandma can "pass" real cappers have picks

[ms71906]

big al? 18-0 boise st game????

[Pokerfanatic]

that is a cop out, if you are handicaapper, you are paid to have an opinion, my grandma can "pass" real cappers have picks


You want to follow a capper that plays every game every night?

[Sports Funatic]

Wed, 10/01/08 - 10:05 PM vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Single-Dime Bet
955 BOS (+124) Bodog vs 956 ANA
Analysis: * 1* All-Access ML WAGER * (Lester vs Lackey)

[Brownbull]

You want to follow a capper that plays every game every night?


Paid to have an opinion every night? That is the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

[B.S.S.]

anyone got roman tonight?

[Anastasius4]

You want to follow a capper that plays every game every night?


no , but they get off the fence, get some sack , and have a pick, an opinion, anything , they never pass on the super bowl!!

[rocky2]

Executive 200% Red Soxs

[Peterex]

Wed, 10/01/08 - 10:05 PM vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Single-Dime Bet
955 BOS (+124) Bodog vs 956 ANA
Analysis: * 1* All-Access ML WAGER * (Lester vs Lackey)

Can someone provide me vegas-runner url ??

Thx and GL !!

[EagleFan]

winners inc.,from donn wagner the swami's site // TOP PLAY LA. TECH +24 !!
<!-- / message -->

THIS GUY 12-3 FOR THE YEAR ON TOPS !1

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Today's 3 unit MLB play is Under 8.5 Boston/LA Angels

Best of luck.

*********
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Seabass Football

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->100* Boise State buy to -24
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Triple-Dime Bet
954 CHC (-148) Sportsbetting.com vs 953 LOS
Analysis:
*** MLB PLAYOFFS 3* GAME of the WEEK ***
(Dempster vs Lowe)



vegas-runner | MLB Total Single-Dime Bet
954 CHC / 953 LOS Over 7 SportBet
Analysis: * 1* TOTAL * (OVER -120...Dempster vs Lowe)




vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Single-Dime Bet
955 BOS (+124) Bodog vs 956 ANA
Analysis: * 1* All-Access ML WAGER * (Lester vs Lackey)
<!-- / message -->

[RaginCardinal]

vegas runnner is part of pregame group

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Beat Your Bookie

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->100 cubs
50 laa

NCAA 100 boise st.
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

csssports

cubs
red sox
la tech
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Vegas Sports Experts

10* Take Boise State (-24.5) over LA Tech (NCAA Power Play)
8:00 PM EST

Louisiana Tech
• 3-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons
• 1-9 ATS in road games when the total is between 52.5 and 56 points
• 4-14 ATS coming off a bye week since 1992
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

LVTR

La Tech +25 (buy Hook If Needed)

Under 57 (comp Play)
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Yankee Capper

3 Units - Dodgers/Cubs Over 7

2 Units - La Tech/Boise Under 56.5
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Mike Lineback

L. A. Angels
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

WINNING POINTS

TAKE ANGELS OVER BOSOX PLAY OF DAY

TAKE BOISE Preferred
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Opposite Action Plays

La Tech / Boise St. Over 56.5
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

PowerPlayWins

BOISE ST -24
<!-- / message -->

[TheSucker]

Anyone got TeddyJunes baseball pick?

Thanks in advance

:toast: