Service Plays Saturday 10/4/08

[Can'tPickaWinner]

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[Can'tPickaWinner]

SCOTT FERRALL

NCAA Week Six Free Picks

Wisconsin +2.5 from Ohio St--Pryor is going to learn the hard way about being a freshman in Mad Town

Colorado St -2 to UNLV--The Rams pull it off in Fort Collins against the Rebels

Texas Tech -7.5 at Kansas St--The Raiders go to Manhattan and stay unbeaten

Michigan St -9 to Iowa--The Spartans running game goes straight at the Hawkeyes in East Lansing

Maryland -13.5 at Virginia--Ralph's boys aren't to shabby at 4-1 and the Cavs pretty much suck at 1-3

Tulane -19 to Army--The Green Wave should handle to winless Cadets

Air Force -6 to Navy--because they are in Colorado Springs--dogfight decided on the ground

Tennessee -15.5 to Northern Illinois--The Vols finally look good--too bad it's against this team

Baylor +27 from Oklahoma--why the hell not ? I love this kid Griffith (Bears QB)--He's all over the place and tough to catch up with. The Sooners win but don't cover

Kentucky +16.5 from Alabama--The Tide are coming off the huge win over Georgia and some believe they are #1, but not after this performance

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Pointwise:

College Key Selections...
1--OKLAHOMA STATE over Texas A & M 54-20
1--TCU over San Diego State 54-10
2--Missouri over NEBRASKA 45-20
3--NEW MEXICO over Wyoming 38-7
4--ARIZONA over Washington 44-14
4--VANDERBILT (+) over Auburn 17-14
5--Texas over COLORADO 45-17
5--Nevada over IDAHO 52-17

[Can'tPickaWinner]

CKO
CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
PRIORITY PICKS and
PREFERENCES
CKO Vol. 47 Oct. 2 - 6, 2008 No. 6

CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

11 *MINNESOTA over Indiana
Late Score Forecast:
*MINNESOTA 40 - Indiana 21

CKO scouts expect Minnesota HC Tim Brewster to rally his club off Ohio State loss for what is a crucial game in Minny’s quest for bowl eligibility. Gophers have ample weapons to lay open a banged-up Indiana “D”, which has suffered injuries to three 2ndary starters and its nickel back and has yielded 960 total yards & 84 pts. in last 2 games vs. Ball St. & Michigan State. Minny QB Adam Weber is 2nd in the Big Ten in passing and is more efficient this season, with an 8-2 TD-int. ratio (was 24-19 LY). WR Eric Decker not only leads the Big Ten in receptions, but o.c. Mike Dunbar is using him as a runner as well (8 carries, 77 YR last 4 games). Running game hasn’t fallen off much after injury to Duane Bennett, as true frosh DeLeon Eskridge (90 ypg rushing & 5 TDs last 3 games). Indiana QB Kellen Lewis, who was shaken up last week, has seen his passing production take a nosedive this season from 234 ypg LY to 162 in ‘08. Obviously, he misses departed WRs James Hardy & James Bailey, while new lead receiver Ray Fisher has just 4 catches this season.



10 *KANSAS STATE over Texas Tech
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS STATE 34 - Texas Tech 31

Long-time Big XII scouts report oddsmakers paying a bit too much respect to offensively-flashy Texas Tech (leads nation in passing), which has feasted on “cupcakes” and defensively-inept teams so far in ‘08. With
KSU’s demanding HC Prince reportedly spending extra time on tackling fundamentals and techniques after too many misses the past two weeks, doubt Red Raider QB Harrell and mates maintain those eye-popping numbers in hostile Manhattan. Meanwhile, Wildcats 6-6, 260 dual-threat QB Freeman (67%, 11 TDs, 2 ints., hasn’t been sacked yet) should fully exploit a still-vulnerable TT defense that yielded 490 yds. vs. Nevada. With Wildcats ground attack suddenly having much more pop with converted 6-3, 215 soph WR Lamark Brown rumbling for 137 yds. in his debut week ago, Prince’s rising squad capable of minor upset. Red Raiders a woeful 1-7 as 7-pt. or fewer road favorite since ‘03.



10 STANFORD over *Notre Dame
Late Score Forecast:
STANFORD 23 - *Notre Dame 20

The pointspread is rising on this game after Notre Dame pulled away from inconsistent Purdue last week. But Pac-10 scouts report things are finally starting to “slow down” for Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard, who rallied the
Cardinal in the second half two weeks ago for a 23-10 victory over stubborn San Jose and the threw three TD passes in last week’s 35-28 road triumph at desperate Washington. Stanford power back Toby Gerhart (check status) suffered a mild concussion in that game. But sr. Anthony Kimble is the former starter at the same spot! And, with eight srs. on a defense that returned nearly intact from LY, you can be sure it won’t lose its poise at South Bend. The Cardinal has already taken on Oregon State, Arizona State, and TCU—all likely 2008 bowl teams. And you can be sure HC Jim Harbaugh (the former Michigan QB) will have the visitor properly motivated.



10 *WISCONSIN over Ohio State
Late Score Forecast:
*WISCONSIN 27 - Ohio State 19

Wisconsin is coming off a distasteful loss at Michigan, in which the Badgers gave up an uncharacteristic four turnovers and blew a 19-0 lead. Intense Wisconsin HC Bret Bielema will have his team ready to “man up” against Ohio State this week, and he won’t let the Badgers forget that they led the Buckeyes 17-10 late in the third quarter before yielding four TDs in the last 18 minutes in ‘07. Wisconsin has been a powerful play in Madison, notching 27-1 SU & 17-9 spread marks the last 4+ seasons (and the Badgers are 6-2 vs. the number following their last 8 losses). Ohio State QB Pryor has added something to the Buckeye attack, but this is a hostile environment for a youngster. OSU defense not bringing the same type of pressure it has in past, and Buckeyes might look more like they did in trip to USC than they did in 1st 3 Qs vs. Minny.


HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):

MARSHALL (+3½) vs. Cincinnati (Friday night)—Cincy QB injuries and what figures to be a wild home crowd pulling for Thundering Herd in an ESPN extravaganza reasons enough to take a flyer with Marshall...

COLORADO STATE (-2) vs. Nevada-Las Vegas—The real UNLV defense showed up against Nevada and allowed 444 yards on the ground. CSU 5th-yr. sr. RB Gartrell Johnson is looking for a career high...

AKRON (-3½) at Kent State—Kent State is 0-11 in last 11 games on the line, and leading RB Eugene Jarvis has missed the last two games with an
ankle injury. Akron is 6-1-1 vs. the number last 8, and QB Jacquemain throws for 200 yds. or more every time out...

UTEP (+8) at Southern Miss—UTEP QBVittatoe looked sharp vs. Central Florida, and the aggressive Miner defense has made some big plays the last two games. USM defense yielding an uncharacteristically high 27 ppg and ranks 110th vs. the run...J


JACKSONVILLE (estimated line: -3) vs. Pittsburgh—Jaguars have had the Steelers number, winning last four meetings, and Pittsburgh coming off important Monday night AFC North clash against Baltimore<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Power Plays

CFB:
4* SMU
4* Penn State
4* Western Mich.
4* Iowa State
4* UNLV
4* Duke
4* Minnesota
4* FSU
4* California
4* TCU
4* West Virginia
4* Texas El Paso
4* Florida
4* Bowling Green
4* Oklahoma State

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Dr Bob

2 W Va
4 Iowa
2 NC
3 GT
3 Stanford
2 Zona
2 Baylor
3 Okla St
3 Tulsa
2 Hawaii
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Wunderdog

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Oklahoma at Baylor (Saturday 10/04 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Baylor +27 (-110)

Oklahoma, the new #1 team in the nation, is very good. But are they, on the road, 27 points better than Baylor? Perhaps they are, but will they play that way before Texas weekend? Next week's showdown is quickly becoming a stage for who will be in the National Championship Game. It's hard to imagine Oklahoma being 100% focused on this game. Baylor is not the doormat they have been in the past. Robert Griffin is difficult to defend, as he can throw down field and he keeps the defense off balance with his abilty to run. He has some very good numbers for a freshman (seven passing TDs, five rushing TDs and no INTs). Jay Finley has found daylight out of the backfield at 8.1 yards per carry, and Baylor should be able to put some points up here. The question is how much energy is Oklahoma willing to spend with the biggest game of the year on deck? I say not enough to cover four touchdowns on the road. History agrees as the Sooners are 5-11 ATS the week before Texas the last sixteen years. Add in the fact that Baylor is well rested (and presumably well prepared) off a bye, and we have some real value on the dog here.
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Lenny Del Genio's 25* SEC Game of the YEAR!!Play on South Carolina at 2:00 ET.

South Carolina is our 25* SEC Game of the Year.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Alan Eastman

$1000 Take #338 Vanderbilt (+4) over Auburn (6 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)

$300.00 Take #310 Utah (-11) over Oregon State (9 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 2)

$500.00 Take #331 Texas Tech (-7.5) over Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)

$300.00 Take #340 Illinois (+2.5) over Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Dave Cokin

(331) Texas Tech
(332) Kansas St
Take "(331) Texas Tech"
Texas Tech has yet to be tested, and some observers therefore consider the Red Raiders to be a bit overrated at this juncture. I don't think that's the case and I'm of the belief this is going to be Mike Leach's best team yet. There's been a subtle change in the Texas Tech attack this season. In the past, they've been unwilling or unable to feature any consistent running game. But this season we're seeing the Red Raiders balancing things a bit more. Make no mistake, this team will still live and die by the pass. But the fact Leach is showing more faith in the run will enable them to protect leads better. The Tech defense is also better than it has been previously. Kansas State can't trade with the Red Raiders offensively, and they've been absolutely porous defensively. I don't see this one being especially close, even in Manhattan, and I'm laying the points with Texas Tech.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

WILD BILL

NC State +9 1/2 (5 units)
South Carolina +3 (5 units)
Vandy +4 1/2 (5 units)
Nebraska +10 1/2 (5 units)
Colorado +13 1/2 (5 units)
San Diego St +24 (5 units)
Ohio St -2 (5 units)
Washington U +22 (5 units)
Washington State +17 (5 units)
Minn-Indiana Over 58 (5 units)
Oklahoma-Baylor Over 62 1/2 (5 units)
Tulane-Army Over 41 1/2 (5 units)
K State-Texas Tech Over 66 (5 units)
Cal-Arizona State Over 55 (5 units)
AF-Navy Over 52 1/2 (5 units)
Toledo-Ball State Over 65 (5 units)
Tulsa-Rice Under 80 (5 units)
UCLA-Washington State Over 56 1/2 (5 units)
Kentucky +16 1/2 (5 units)
Texas A&m +25 (5 units)
Rice +16 (5 units)

[Sports Funatic]

Vegas Runner's early steam:

IOWA STATE +12

[BETYOURASS]

any chance we can get the breakdown of Dr. Bob's best bets, i.e. the Iowa game is a 4 star between XX points and XX points.

Thanks

:toast:


DR BOB


4 Iowa
3 Utah St
3 Baylor
3 Okla St
3 Tulsa
3 GT
3 Stanford
2 W Va
2 Hawaii
2 NC
2 Zona
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4 Star Selection
**** Iowa 30 MICHIGAN ST. (-7.0) 24
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll take Iowa in a 4-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars from +6 ½ to +4 points (2-Stars down to +3).


3 Star Selection
*** GEORGIA TECH (-12.5) 35 Duke 10
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars from -14 ½ to -17 points.

3 Star Selection
***Stanford 26 NOTRE DAME (-7.0) 23
11:30 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll take Stanford in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars from +6 ½ to +5 points.

3 Star Selection
*** OKLAHOMA ST. (-24.0) 51 Texas A&M 14
04:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll take Oklahoma State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -27 points or less and for 2-Stars at -27 ½ or -28 points.

3 Star Selection
*** TULSA (-15.5) 55 Rice 28
05:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll take Tulsa in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars from -17 ½ points to -20 points.

2 Star Selection
** WEST VIRGINIA (-13.5) 35 Rutgers 14
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll take West Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and I’d consider the Mountaineers a Strong Opinion from -14 ½ to -16 points.

2 Star Selection
**BAYLOR 24 Oklahoma (-26.5) 40
09:30 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll take Baylor in a 2-Star Best Bet at +24 points or more and for 3-Stars at +27 or more.

2 Star Selection
** NORTH CAROLINA (-7.0) 33 Connecticut 17
04:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll take North Carolina in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less.

2 Star Selection
** ARIZONA (-21.5) 42 Washington 10
04:30 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less and for 3-Stars at -21 or less.

2 Star Selection
** Hawaii 24 FRESNO ST. (-22.0) 37
07:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll take Hawaii in a 2-Star Best Bet at +20 points or more.



Strong Opinion
Penn St. (-13.5) 41 PURDUE 23
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll consider Penn State a Strong Opinion at -14 or less and I’d take Penn State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.

Strong Opinion
KANSAS ST. 33 Texas Tech (-7.0) 34
12:30 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll consider Kansas State a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Navy 27 AIR FORCE (-5.0) 26
01:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll consider Navy a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.

Strong Opinion
TCU (-24.0) 38 San Diego St. 9
03:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll consider TCU a Strong Opinion at -24 points or less.

Strong Opinion
Northern Ill 14 TENNESSEE (-16.0) 24
04:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll consider Northern Illinois a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more and I’d take the Huskies in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.

Strong Opinion
UL Lafayette (-2.5) 37 UL MONROE 28
04:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
I’ll consider UL Lafayette a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.

[hook'em25]

Burns underdog game of year- kent state

[hook'em25]

Feist NCAA GOY- Florida over Arkansas

[Sports Funatic]

Tommy Rider | CFB Side
double-dime bet
359 Florida -23.0 (-110) Bodog vs 360 Arkansas

[Sports Funatic]

Tommy Rider | CFB Side
triple-dime bet
389 Ohio St. -2.0 (-110) BetUS vs 390 Wisconsin

[Sports Funatic]

Tommy Rider | CFB Side
double-dime bet
380 Toledo 8.0 (-110) Bodog vs 379 Ball St.

[Sports Funatic]

Tommy Rider | CFB Side
double-dime bet
374 UCLA -17.0 (-110) SportBet vs 373 Washington St.

[Sports Funatic]

Tommy Rider | CFB Total
double-dime bet
332 Kansas St. / 331 Texas Tech Over 66.0 BetUS

[frankey]

roots radio show---BEST PICKS------Ron Meyer--ohio st----Big Al--Atlanta (pros)-----Kelso--tcu-------Wayne Root--Toledo

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Norm Hitzges
NCAA Football Record: 53-44

NCAA

Double Play
Nevada -24.5 vs Idaho
Oklahoma State -25 vs Texas A&M
Nebraska +10.5 vs Missouri
South Carolina +2.5 vs Mississippi

Single Plays

Minnesota -7 vs Indiana
Stanford +7 vs Notre Dame
Michigan -3 vs Illinois
Kentucky +16 vs Alabama
Purdue +13 vs Penn State
Toledo +7.5 vs Ball St
UCLA -17.5 vs Washington St
Fresno -22 vs Hawaii
Tulane -20 vs Army
Colorado +13 vs Texas
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Bettorsworld

2* Connecticut +7 over North Carolina - In evaluating talent on a college football team, it can be helpful in certain situations to take a look back at the previous season. The situations where that is helpful is where teams have lots of starters back from the previous year. Such is the case here for both of these squads as Uconn has 9 on offense and 8 on defense while North Carolina has 10 on offense and 8 on defense. So these teams both have the same core of talent as they did a year ago. Same coaching staffs, same schemes, same team. One significant missing link for both teams is QB as both have seen their starters go down with injuries. For Uconn it's QB Tyler Lorenzen who is out 6-8 weeks with a broken foot. Notre Dame transfer Zack Frazer takes his place. More on that later. For the Tar Heels, starter TJ Yates is out and Cam Sexton and Mike Paulus are in.

So with the core talent the same as a year ago, what can we learn from taking a look back? How about this. They had 3 common opponents, Duke, Virginia and South Florida. The results? Uconn Beat Duke 45-14 while NC beat Duke 20-14. Uconn beat South Florida 22-15 while NC lost 37-10. Uconn beat Virginia 16-17 while NC lost to Virginia 22-20. Sure, there was some bad weather involved here with the Uconn South Florida game last year but by and large what we can take away from last years results is that Uconn was a little better than North Carolina. At the very least, we come away with these two teams being on the same level talent wise.

Schedule strength will be one valid argument used for North Carolina especially when you consider that North Carolina played Virginia Tech and Miami in back to back weeks winning one and having the chance to win both. Playing a higher quality opponent give a team more chance for improvement from week to week. Playing good teams makes you better. It's not Uconns fault, as a tea, but thus far they have played Hofstra, Temple, Virginia, Baylor and Louisville. North Carolina will be their toughest opponent to date without question.

Uconn may actually benefit from the QB change. Zack Frazer was good enough for the folks at Notre Dame to be interested. He's got a great arm and is much more of a long ball threat than Lorenzen was. When you have the number one rusher in the country in your backfield, and now a deep threat, the two go hand in hand to help each other. Concentrate too much on stopping Donald Brown and that leaves the deep threat open. Keeping the North Carolina secondary honest opens it up for Donald Brown to continue to eat up yards on the ground.

The Uconn defense been a bend but not break defense. They gave up over 500 yards to Louisville but kept them out of the end zone. They had a yards per point number last season of 18 and this year it's currently at 22. Very good. Again, who they did it against will be the common argument against Uconn, but we have shown that going back and taking a look at the core talent from a year ago for both squads, that these teams figure to be evenly matched. Uconn has played a weak schedule perhaps, but they have done what's expected when you play a weak schedule....they won and are 5-0.

This isn't a play against North Carolina or for that matter, a play on Uconn because we feel they are superior. What we have here are two well coached teams that aren't beating themselves. Both teams can pound the ball. Uconn may have the better defense but the offensive edge goes to North Carolina with more weapons. Shake it all up and we have two evenly matched teams taking the field. The +7 is what attracts us here. This Uconn team is built to play the type of game that gets decided late, which is an ideal spot for a 7 point underdog.

One area of concern here, and it's a legitimate one, is Uconns performance on the road. They have only had a winning record on the road once this decade. Even last years team managed just a 2-3 road record. But the talent is there for a close game, even a win, so we'll grab the +7 here and make a 2* play on Uconn. 2* Uconn +7





2* Vanderbilt +4 over Auburn - We had a feeling we'd be playing this one a couple of weeks ago. First we are going to tell you why this play scares us. Then we are going to tell you why we're going to play it anyways.

A pointspread is an indicator of a teams value in the marketplace. If a team outperforms the indicator, it tells us they are undervalued. If a team doesn't perform well against the pointspread, it tells us they are overvalued. This game presents a classic look at overvalued and undervalued. This generally happens because a team is given credit, or not given credit, based on what they have done historically. Here we have Auburn, a team that is top 5 in wins over the last decade in college football, against Vanderbilt, a team that hasn't had a winning season in 25 years. Auburn is down a notch mostly as a result of implementing a new offense while Vandy is playing at a higher level thus far than they have in years. So it should be no surprise that Vandy is 4-0 against the spread this year while Auburn is 1-3 against the number.

The problem is that when this occurs, adjustments are made each week to correct the problem. Little by little, that early season value begins to disappear. Without these adjustments, bettors could simply load up on or against these teams each week and laugh all the way to the bank. As it stands with Vandy, we are approaching the point of diminishing returns. Interestingly enough, the oddsmakers still didn't get it right this week according to the early bettors who are usually a sharp crowd. Auburn opened a 6 point favorite but was quickly bet down to 4.

In order for their to be any value betting on Vanderbilt this season, past this game, there needs to be a correction in the market place. Is this the week of the correction? We hope not, as we are going to ride the Vandy train for one more week.

You've seen us refer to special seasons and the likes of Cinci, Rutgers and Wake Forest in recent years. One thing that all of these teams had in common was that they were all among the best teams in the nation in turnover margin at the time of their special runs. You commonly here people state that these teams "get all the breaks" or the "ball has bounced their way" but that's all nonsense. Teams that find themselves at the top of the turnover category are creating those bounces and breaks. So with Vanderbilt, it should come as no surprise that they are #1 in the country in Turnover Margin at +9. Auburn meanwhile, weighs in at -3 which is to be expected from a team implementing a new spread offense.

It won't be easy to beat Auburn with a one dimensional attack. Auburn has a fantastic defense. Vanderbilt is all about the run. They are pretty much no threat whatsoever to throw the ball downfield. Auburn held two opponents this year to 39 yards rushing. They held another to 84 yards on the ground with only LSU and Tennessee gaining any significant yardage overland but both of those teams were a threat thru the air which opened up the ground game. No such threat with Vandy and that could be a problem.

What we need here is a game that plays out similar to the Auburn Miss State game. A defensive battle where one or two big plays makes the difference. We like our chances of Vandy being the team that gets the big play to make a difference.

As with the Wake Forest and Rutgers teams, we get to say that this will probably be the biggest game Vanderbilt has ever played to date in the history of their program. They get the chance to prove they are deserving of the top 25 ranking. ESPN will be broadcasting from there all day starting with their Game Day show. For Vanderbilt, that's huge. The added emotional boost here can only be a positive. We'll ride Vandy one more week. 2* Vanderbilt +4
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Northcoast Big Dogs

Iowa +7.5
Iowa St.+13
Duke +14
SMU +15
No. Illinois +16
Nebraska +10.5
Washington +21.5
UTEP +7.5
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Larry Ness' 20* Revenge Game of the Year-CFB
My 20* play is on Air Force at 4:00 ET. That's the case here and I look for the Falcons to roll. Revenge GOY 20* Air Force.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' CFB Blowout Game of the Month
My CFB Blowout of the Month is on Both Ohio U and Western Michigan were bowl teams in 2006 but the Bobcats fell to 6-6 last year, with the Broncos falling even further (5-7). Broncos roll in this one. Blowout Game of the Month 15* Western Michigan.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CFB (6-2 with FB Insiders to open '08!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on Miami-Ohio at 3:30 ET. Las Vegas Insider on Miami-Ohio.

Good Luck...Larry
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

EZWINNERS Saturday


5* Toledo +7.5
2* Toledo ML
3* Miami (OH) -7
3* Illinois +2
2* Tennessee -16
2* Colorado +13
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Spylock

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->10/04/08 Boston College -9 Boston College -9 1
12:00 PM NC State


10/04/08 LouisianaLafayette -2.5 LouisianaLafayette -2.5 1
7:00 PM LouisianaMonroe


10/04/08 Ohio State -1.5
8:05 PM Wisconsin Wisconsin +1.5 5
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Nationwide - Gold Sheet

Super Power 7 Minnesota
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[ymmit2nd]

Vegas Experts The Edge Newsletter

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3* Texas Tech
3* Arizona State
3* Toledo

[ymmit2nd]

NELLY


- KICKED ASS LAST WEEK - DONT HAVE THE RECORD BUT IF YOU WANT GO BACK TO LAST SAT AND SUNDAY AND CHECK
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6-gtech
4-scar
3-smiss
2-conn
2-af
1-kentucky
1-iowa

[ymmit2nd]

sportsinsights (8-7)



NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 6 – Games to Watch

Texas Tech vs Kansas State (10/4 3:30P)

Coming into the season, everyone knew about Texas Tech's high-powered offense led by Senior QB Graham Harrell and Sophomore WR Michael Crabtree. The Red Raiders haven't disappointed by putting up over 45 points and 570 yards a game while climbing to No. 7 in the rankings with a 4-0 record. Texas Tech improved their running game behind a pair of talented backs, Baron Batch and Shannon Woods, that each average over 6 yards per carry and are receiving threats out of the backfield. The Red Raiders are backing up all that offense with an improved defense that is giving up an average of 16 points per game.
Kansas State also knows how to put up a lot of points, as they average 47 points a contest. The Wildcats are led by Junoir QB Josh Freeman, who broke KSU's career record for passing yards last week and needs only two passing TDs to tie the school mark. KSU finally found a running game during their last contest as converted WR Lamark Brown rushed for 137 yards and a TD to give the offense a balance.

We're expecting there to be plenty of points with these two offenses facing off. Texas Tech opened as -6 favorites at Pinnacle before the line quickly moved to -7 with the Red Raiders receiving the majority of the public's wagers. The line fluctuated and triggered multiple Smart Money Plays on KSU before dropping down to Texas Tech -7.5. We like to follow the Smart Money and home teams getting more than a TD. We're backing the Wildcats in Manhattan.

Kansas State +7.5

Ohio State vs Wisconsin (10/4 8P)

Ohio State heads into Wisconsin coming off a pair of home wins to wash the bitter taste of the USC game out of their mouth. The Buckeyes haven't looked dominating since their opening win against Youngstown State, as they've been dealing with a nagging injury to starting tailback Beanie Wells and inconsistent play at quarterback. Wells finally returned and looked healthy last week against Minnesota as he rushed for 106 yards on 14 carries. Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor finally brought some playmaking ability to the QB spot while splitting time with Todd Boeckman. Pryor was steady throwing the ball while rushing for 97 yards and two scores on eight carries. The Buckeyes' defense also looked better last week as they allowed only two field goals before Minnesota scored two late TDs when the game was out of reach.

Wisconsin will look to bounce back from last week's devastating second half against Michigan. The Badgers led 19-0 at halftime but allowed the Wolverines to score 27 points in the final 18 minutes to pull the upset. A big part of that loss was the four turnovers committed by Senior QB Allan Evridge. The Badgers defense allows only 17 points per game and has forced 11 turnovers. Wisconsin historically plays well at home, and they have won 27 of their previous 28 games at Camp Randall Stadium.

This will be the Buckeyes first test since USC, and playing at Wisconsin is a tall task with a freshman QB. Wisconsin may have blown it last week, but they have already defeated a top-25 team this season, and they know their season could be on the line with No. 6 Penn State visiting next week. Ohio State opened as -2.5 favorites at Pinnacle, but the line has dropped to Ohio State -1 despite the Buckeyes receiving 72% of public wagers. This has triggered multiple Smart Money plays on Wisconsin, so we'll take the Badgers at home with a point or so.

Wisconsin +1.5


Missouri vs Nebraska (10/4 9PM)

Missouri has looked excellent so far this season behind Heisman hopeful QB Chase Daniel. The Tigers offense is ranked second nationally in scoring and total yards as they've racked up four non-conference wins to open the season. The only close contest was in their opening game against then-No. 20 Illinois, which they won 52-42. Daniel has completed over 75% of his passes while throwing for 12 touchdowns against one interception. The offense is balanced with RB Derrick Washington, who averages 6.8 yards a carry and has scored 8 TDs on the ground.

Nebraska is coming off a tough 35-30 home loss to Virginia Tech, and has to face one of the nation's most powerful offenses. First-year Cornhuskers coach Bo Pelini has his team off to a good start, but knows the Huskers have a tough task this week. Nebraska has put up 37.5 points per game, and they will look to take advantage of a porous Missouri pass defense with Senior QB Joe Ganz.

This will be Missouri's first road contest as they open their Big 12 schedule. They opened as -10 favorites at Pinnacle and the line has moved up and down between 10 and 11 across the marketplace throughout the week. With the Tigers receiving 77% of the public's backing, Nebraska is receiving a plethora of Smart Money plays, mostly from books with positive records, due to the betting percentage and line fluctuation. We'll follow the Smart Money and take the Huskers with the points.

Nebraska +10.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 4.

Games to Watch (8-7)
Kansas State +7.5
Wisconsin +1.5
Nebraska +10.5

[ymmit2nd]

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA:


THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (12-9)...


TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK



UTAH - ALREADY A LOSER

Revenge isn’t the only factor that favors hot Utah when it plays host
to Oregon State at Salt Lake City Thursday night, although it helps to
strength the case for the Utes after their 24-7 loss at Corvallis last
season. Keep in mind that Utah has usually taken care of business at
Rice-Eccles Stadium lately, covering 8 of its last 12 at home. If the
Utes end up laying double digits, note their 7-2 mark in that role since
2006. Meanwhile, the Beavers have long struggled as a visitor in nonconference
play, dropping 5 of their last 6 spread verdicts.


NAVY
Anchors Aweigh, indeed, for the Naval Academy as it prepares to
again defend its Commander-in-Chief Trophy when traveling to
Colorado Springs for a Saturday battle vs. rival Air Force. The series
has been all Midshipmen lately, with the Annapolis bunch winning
and covering 5 straight at the Falcs’ expense. Navy has also been
an accomplished spread performer on the road for years, standing
11-4 vs. the line as a rod dog since ‘03. The Mids are also featured
recommendation in the Rivalry Dog and Power Underdog systems
this week.



NEVADA
It’s hard to grasp just how bad things are going for Idaho.
Certainly, the Vandals are one of the most-pronounced pointspread
cold streaks in recent memory, dropping 12 of their last 13 vs. the
number. Moreover, they’ve dropped their last 8 spread decisions at
home in the Kibbie Dome, where they’ll host surging Nevada
Saturday afternoon. The Wolf Pack, fresh off an exhilarating win
over rival UNLV, is a featured Streakbuster “Win” recommendation
this week. Further arguments supporting the case for Nevada
include the Pack’s solid chalk mark (18-8) since HC Chris Ault
returned to the sidelines in 2004, and Idaho’s poor -18.50 “AFS”
(“Away from Spread”) number its last two games on the board.



UCLA
Not often do we find a team continuing to appear on a weekly
basis on the plus or minus sides of the “AFS” (“Away from
Spread”) list, featured weekly in our Systems Spotlight feature.
And we certainly don’t recall a team continuing to stay at or near the
top of the “minus” list as has Washington State, which travels to
Pasadena for a Saturday date vs. UCLA. The Cougs’ latest “AFS”
number is a woeful -26.75 (two-game average), following recent
weeks in the minus 30 range, the most-extended and pronounced
AFS “minus” drought we can recall. Note the Bruins’18-5 spread
mark their last 23 at the Rose Bowl, and their inclusion as a featured
Streakbuster-Win recommendation this week.



OKLAHOMA STATE
It’s go-with vs. go-against when Oklahoma State plays host to
Texas A&M Saturday at Stillwater. “Go-with” means the Cowboys,
off to a 3-0 start vs. the number, and now 7-0 as double-digit chalk
since 2005. And in this matchup, “go-against” means the Aggies,
losers of 4 of 5 vs. the line since late last season and owners of a sorry
-19.00 “AFS” (“Away from Spread”) number their last 2 games

[ymmit2nd]

Northcoast PowerSweep



NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP DOG (3-0)

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (1-4)






4* Michigan 30-20
3* Florida St. 21-17
3*Tulane 38-10
2*Notre Dame 34-17
2*Duke + 20-24
2*Western Mich. 30-16
Underdog Toledo +7 34-31


UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

TOLEDO (+7) over Ball St

Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 180-124. Over the
last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 28 OUTRIGHT UPSET
WINNERS to the incredible record including last week with Michigan over
Wisconsin! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week:
BSU won at UT in ‘06 snapping a 5 game losing streak in the Glass Bowl. The HT is 11-3-1 SU winning
the L/11 by 20 ppg. LY at Muncie, Toledo had a 313-206 yd edge at the half in a 20-20 gm but thanks in
part to losing their QB to inj, did not score in the 2H and lost 41-20. BSU is 14-3 ATS on the road while
UT is 41-8 SU at home but has suffered 2 straight losses for the first time S/’85. UT, after almost upsetting
#25 Fresno St, was favored (-20) over FIU and led 13-0 but gave up 4 TO’s and despite 20-12 FD and
302-239 yd edges lost 35-16 as they all’d 4 TD drives that started in their own territory. UT played without
leading rusher Collins (360, 8.2, CS). UT QB Opelt is avg 182 ypg (57%) with a 7-2 ratio. BSU QB Davis
is avg 284 ypg (71%) with an 11-3 ratio. RB Lewis leads the tm with 645 yds (5.8). BSU is 5-0 SU and
3-1 ATS incl 2-0 SU in MAC play. The Cardinals had 26-18 FD and 423-353 yd edges winning 41-20 over
Kent but failed to cover as a 22 pt HF. UT is 1-0 SU & ATS in MAC play so the winner here will have a
step up in the MAC West race. BSU has the off (#28-57) and def (#83-94) edges but UT has played the
much tougher schedule (#42-105). On Sept 20th, Toledo (+7) delivered an Underdog Play Winner and
an almost outright upset of Fresno St (54-55) in this very spot. FORECAST: TOLEDO 34 Ball St 31



4* MICHIGAN over Illinois - LY with the game tied mid-4Q, IL fmbl’d a punt to set up a UM TD as
they lost 27-17 (+1). UM is 39-4-2 SU vs IL. IL is 5-2 as an AD (1-1 TY) but on its 2nd straight road trip
and this is Zook’s 1st trip to the Big House. Mich won as an Underdog POW on these pages and a 4H
LPS in the biggest UM comeback in Michigan Stadium history as they trailed Wisky 19-0 at the half.
Five UM 1H TO’s set up the Badgers but the Wolves, who had just 21 1H yds, exploded in the 2H for
247 yds & 27 pts (1 IR TD). Threet had a season high 58 yd run vs the Badgers but UM is #109 in the
NCAA in pass eff & #110 in ttl off. Wolves D allows 89 rush ypg (2.3) with 14 sks. IL lost at PSU 38-24
as they went for it on 4th & 2 at their own 48 early 3Q but were SOD and all’d 94 yd KR TD. QB Williams
avg 226 ypg (59%) with a 9-6 ratio and 283 rush yds. RB Dufrene (396, 6.7) suffered a shoulder inj LW
(CS). Illini allow 183 rush ypg (4.8). Wolves shutdown Williams & Co and take adv of a porous Illini D.
FORECAST: MICHIGAN 30 Illinois 20



3* Florida St over MIAMI, FL - This used to be one of the top rivalries but both have gone thru a
downturn recently (LY was 1st meeting S/’77 that neither ranked). This game is always close with the
L/7 decided by 4.4 ppg and none by more than 8. FSU was in control on LY’s game but let it slip away
(see PH) as FSU led 29-24 & UM scored 2 TD’s in :11 w/1:05 left. Miami is 7-2 SU in the series. FSU
won their last trip here in ‘06 13-10 (+3’) in a D struggle (176-134 yd edge, two tms 17 comb FD’s).
Shannon is 0-5 ATS in ACC HG’s with 4 upset losses as they were upset LW 28-24 (-8) vs NC. QB Marve
is avg 139 ypg (66%) with a 5-3 ratio. FSU is 5-9 as an AF. LW the Noles defeated Colorado 39-21 in
Bowden’s 500th game as a HC giving us our Sept GOM 5H Winner. FSU has a solid off and ST’s edge
(off #30-64, ST #37-73) but these 2 matchup pretty evenly on D (FSU #14-17). FSU QB Ponder is avg
137 ypg (51%) with a 6-4 ratio. RB Smith has rushed for 302 yds (5.7). FSU receives their final player
back from susp and you saw what they could do with their full compliment of players. The speedy D will
frustrate rFr QB Marve. FORECAST: Florida St 21 MIAMI, FL 17



3* TULANE over Army - This will be the first game at the outdoor Gormley Stadium S/‘04 and is HC.
Tulane is 5-1-1 SU at home vs Army (avg score 30-16) and the last trip here we used a 3H LPS on
Tulane (-5’) and they won easier than the 42-28 final with a 35-16 FD edge. LY was a tough loss for TU
as they led by 10 w/2:00 left but Army tied it on a Hail Mary and won in OT. TU had a 401-240 yd edge
and the departed RB Forte rushed for 202. That was Army’s last win as they have dropped 10 str. Army
is off their best off perf of the yr as their new option off finally started clicking. QB Bowden, in his first
start, led with 128 yds (3.8). They were only outgained 290-284 and had a 21-14 FD edge. The Knights
had just 1 TO, but A&M returned that fmbl 58 yds for a TD and held on to win 21-17, but Army easily
got their 1st cover of the yr (+28). Tulane does have 2 extra days to prep, which is always a plus, and is
all’g just 69 ypg rush (2.8). They led SMU 31-7 at the half but had to hang on to win 34-27 as we won
a Thur Night Marquee Play on SMU (+18). Tulane has played the tougher schedule (#59-111), has the
better off (#90-120) and D (#52-102) and catches Army in 2nd of B2B AG’s in a situation where they
had a disappointing finish in a competitive gm vs A&M. FORECAST: TULANE 38 Army 10



OTHER SELECTIONS

2H*NOTRE DAME over Stanford - This marks the12th straight year these 2 have met with ND winning
the L/6 SU (last loss hosting Stanford was in ‘92) while going 4-2 ATS. Irish QB Clausen (275 pass yds,
3 TD) and RB Allen (134 rush yds) recorded career highs allowing ND to pull away in the 2H vs Pur
while delivering a 3H LPS Winner. The Irish have gone 25-12-1 SU & 23-15 ATS all-time vs the P10
but Weis has struggled as a HF going just 3-8 ATS. These schools combined for 6 TO’s, 5 missed FG’s,
4 plays overturned by replay & 9 PF’s LY with ND actually the underdog on the road in their 21-14 win
(+4’).The Cardinal are in their 4th RG in 5 weeks and now travel to the Midwest in a P10 sandwich after
gaining a ssn best 466 yds vs a weak Husky defense as bkup RB Kimble marched for a career-high
157 yds replacing an inj’d RB Gerhart (concussion-CS) midway through the 1Q. While the dog in this
series has gone 6-3 ATS in recent years, the resurgent Irish should be too much for the road weary
Cardinal in this one. FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 34 Stanford 17



2* Duke (+) over GEORGIA TECH - The winner in this series has won by DD 19 of 22 gms (86%). GT
is 12-1 SU in the series, has won 6 straight in Atl, is off a bye and only has a IAA foe on deck. Duke DC
MacIntyre played football for GT for 2 years. Duke got some excellent prep work for this as they faced
Johnson’s old team Navy (held Midshipmen to a ssn low 13 FD’s & 207 rush yds) on Sept 13 and has
a bye next week. Since Duke upset GT in ‘03 the Wreck has won the L/4 by 22 ppg. Johnson is 4-9 as
a HF and Cutcliffe is 4-2 as an AD but this is their road opener. GT is avg 307 rush pg (#5 NCAA). GT
is holding opp’s to just over 14 ppg and has been especially aggressive creating TO’s (11). QB Nesbitt
suffered a hamstring 2 wks ago but Johnson said he could be back vs Duke. On the season Nesbitt
is avg 140 ypg ttl off. RB Dwyer has 389 rush yds (8.1). GT has the edge on both sides of the ball (off
#31-77, def #40-46). Duke is 1 holding pen away from being unbeaten. They snapped a 25 gm ACC
losing streak with their 31-3 win over UVA LW & are off to their best start S/’94. QB Lewis is #2 in the
ACC avg 219 ypg (61%) with a 7-2 ratio. WR Riley has 22 rec (12.2). Duke is a much improved team
allowing 117 less ypg than LY. Duke showed LW that they’re learning how to win under SEC Coach
Cutcliffe and takes the next step. FORECAST: Duke 20 (+) GEORGIA TECH 24



2* W MICHIGAN over Ohio - The Bobcats are 2-9 SU visiting Kalamazoo with wins in ‘96 & ‘98. Last
met in ‘06 and Ohio, despite just 10 FD, still won at home 27-20 (+4). This is HC for WM and their only
IA HG in a 2 month span so the fans should be hungry. Ohio is 1-4 SU (only win vs IAA tm) with their
avg loss by 6 ppg but is 4-1 ATS. WM is 4-1 SU but 1-3 ATS. WM was avg over 36 ppg but was held to
just 7 pts vs Temple. Ohio is 0-1 SU in MAC play and WM is 2-0 SU in MAC play (0-2 ATS) winning by
a comb 7 pts. Despite having just 35 yds vs TU LW, WM RB West leads w/467 (5.8) which is more than
twice the rest of the tm combined. WM QB Hiller avg 271 ypg (70%) with a 15-3 ratio. Ohio QB Jackson
in his 3 starts is avg 293 ypg (63%) with a 6-2 ratio. The Bobcats top rusher is Harden with 274 (5.3).
The Broncos have a slight def edge (#65-71) and a bigger off edge (#67-101). WM came up flat vs the
Owls without their starting QB but now stay focused at home. Nothing wrong with their D as they’ve
held their L/2 opp to 23 ttl FD’s and 474 combined yds. FORECAST: W MICHIGAN 30 Ohio 16

[ymmit2nd]

THE RED SHEET

THE RED SHEET 88* (7-7-1)
THE RED SHEET 89* (5-4-1)




RATINGS:
89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY



South Carolina 27 - MISSISSIPPI 20 - (2:00 EDT) --Line opened at Mississippi minus 3, and is now minus 2½. This contest sets up perfectly for the Gamecocks, not only catching the Rebs off their epic draining upset of Florida, but also on the heels of their previous grinder vs Vandy. SC has been somewhat of a disappointment so far, but took Georgia to the final gun, & is in off a couple of warmups, Wofford & UAB. The 'Cocks field the 9th best "D" in the nation, & top passing "D", which should put Reb QB Snead to the test. SEC has been dog heaven in this type of affair, & Spurrier has been a premier road pup play. And again.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 89

OKLAHOMA STATE 55 - Texas A&M 20 - (7:00) --Line opened at OklahomaSt minus 23½, and is now minus 24½. The Cowboys have to be the number one "under the radar" team in the land, just now sneaking into the Top 25 (21st & 22nd in the polls). Their triumvirate of QB Robinson (5th ranked passer in the land), Hunter (#3 rusher), & Bryant (#5 receiver) lead the nation's 3rd rated scoring offense. Contrast that to the Aggies, who've rank 101st in total offense, are 103rd in rushing (133 RYs vs Army), & are hurting at QB. Toss in the fact that the 'Pokes have dropped 2 straight series heartbreakers. Revenge in true style.
RATING: OKLAHOMA STATE 89


MIAMI-OHIO 30 - Temple 10 - (3:30) --Line opened at Miami minus 8, and is now minus 7. A week ago, we went against these Owls, in their home match with WesternMichigan, figuring that their offensive production would take a nose-dive, with the loss of QB DeMichele, & it more than proved out, as Temple managed but a mere FG vs the Broncos. However, it ended in a
push, as Western, despite a 252-60 PY edge, & an 18-10 FD advantage, was able to post just 7 pts itself. But the Owls must now travel to a Miami team,which has already faced a non-conference slate of Vandy, Michigan, & Cincinnati. Another revenger.
RATING: MIAMI-OHIO 88

BOWLING GREEN 48 - Eastern Michigan 10 - (4:00) --Line opened at BowlingGreen minus 20, and is now minus 21. The Falcons of BG are another rather unnoticed team, as their 2-2 log would indicate. However, those setbacks came vs the likes of Minnesota & Boise. So note that the Gophers have but a single loss, to OhioSt, while the Broncos are perfect, while holding down the 17th spot in the nation. Not only that, but the Falcs played Minny even-up, statwise, except for a 5-0 TO deficit. And their loss to Boise again was due to the OT (3), as BG had 22-16 FD edge. Eagles allowing 44 ppg in their last 7 lined games.
RATING: BOWLING GREEN 88

Akron 34 - KENT STATE 14 - (12:00) --Line opened at Akron minus 3½, and is still minus 3½. As long as the Flashes are on the board, there is only one way to go. That's right, an 0-11 spread run! And as we noted on Pointwise, earlier in the week, they are minus 146½ pts ATS in their last 6 games. They have actually been decent, overland, but their ace RB Jarvis is now hurting (ankle). Defensively, they can't stop much, ranking 105th overall, including 114th vs the run. The Zips' record is a bit deceiving, with 2 of their 3 losses coming vs Wisconsin (5½ pt cover), & Cincinnati (9-pt cover). Leadership of Jacquemain decides it.
RATING: AKRON 88


NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): TCU, Missouri, MichiganSt, UCLA --

[ymmit2nd]

HQ Report Newsletter 10/4

HQ REPORT 5* (3-1-1)
HQ REPORT UNDERDOG PLAY OF WEEK (4-1)
HQ REPORT ATS (3-2)
HQ REPORT TOTAL RECALL (2-3)



5* BALL STATE (-7) over Toledo by 17
3* Connecticut (+7) over North Carolina
3* Ohio U (+4) over Western Michigan
3* Texas Tech (-7) over Kansas State by 14

*HQ Underdog Play of the Week
TOP PLAY--UTEP (+8) over Southern Mississippi (4-1)


*HQ Total Recall Over/Under
Single Play--Indiana vs Minnesota Play Over

*A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems)
TOP PLAY --South Carolina (+3) over Mississippi

[ymmit2nd]

Mark Lawrence


5* (4-1)

4* (2-3)..

UPSET (0-3)






5* BEST BET

South Carolina over Old Miss by 13

What in the world can Houston Nutt do for an encore? After outplaying
fearsome Florida in the Swamp and leaving Gainesville with a 31-
30 signature win (snapped a 9-game SEC losing streak), Nutt and his
rejuvenated Rebels are suddenly a ‘playuh’ in the SEC. Bear in mind with
a few lucky bounces against Wake Forest and Vanderbilt, Ole Miss could
easily be 5-0 and wearing a national ranking in addition to the 2008
‘glass slipper’. Still, we’re compelled to remind you that South Carolina’s
Steve Spurrier owns a profi table 45-22-1 SU and 45-23 ATS record on the
conference road in his college head-coaching career. The ol’ ball coach
may not have cashed the ticket in last week’s win over UAB but he fi nally
got to keep QB Stephen Garcia on the fi eld for an extended period of
time and the redshirt freshman revived the moribund Gamecock offense
(completed 13-of-20 passes for 131 yards and scrambled for 86 more).
That’s good news for a team that lost SU at Columbia as 17-point favorites
in their last meeting with the Rebels. Much like the Oregon State game
on Thursday, Ole Miss falls into the ‘teams off a SU dog win of 20 or
more points’ scenario, a feeble 8-16 ATS proposition when taking on a
foe off back-to-back SU wins. Nutt appears to have his Ole Miss team on
the fast track to success but following their huge win over the Gators,
the Rebels’ feet don’t fi gure to hit the ground here until they go into
the locker room at halftime. The clincher is Nutt’s poor 4-15 ATS record
versus conference opponents off a SU win (0-6 if he’s off a SUATS win).
Gamecocks are 5-0 ‘ITS’ this year and will show up HUNGRY




4* BEST BET

Alabama over Kentucky by 3
Folks in south Florida may still despise the ground he walks on but there’s
no denying coach Nick Saban has damn near performed miracles with
the Alabama program since he arrived at Tuscaloosa in 2007. Last week’s
shocking domination of preseason No. 1 Georgia at Athens moved the
Tide up to 4th spot in the Coaches Poll – and also drove the line up on
this matchup by at least a fi eld goal. After such a monster effort, Saban
will be hard-pressed to get his team up for a so-so Kentucky team. Bama’s
poor ATS history in today’s role doesn’t help, either. Bear’s descendants
are a woeful 0-4 ATS home off BB road games and just 3-12 ATS in Game
Six (Saban is also only 6-12-1 ATS off a SU dog win). Kentucky coach Rich
Brooks has led his Wildcats to an impressive 9-0 SU record in the fi rst fi ve
games of the past two seasons. UK is also 5-1 ATS away off BB homers and
5-1 ATS off a DD non-SEC win. THIS JUST IN: Since 2005, 4-0 road dogs are
11-2 ATS in Game Five. Did we mention that Bama is also a SMART BOX


3* BEST BET

Georgia Tech over Duke by 24

Hell officially froze over last weekend in Durham, NC, when Duke
absolutely bedeviled visiting Virginia in a merciless 31-3 beating. But
even though the win elevated the Dukies’ 2008 record to a surprising
3-1, expect a rapid thaw to set in Saturday when the Blue Beelzebubs
head down I-85 to Atlanta. If you’ve yet to climb aboard the Georgia
Tech ATS train, don’t let it leave the station without you. We’ve been
Paul Johnson fans from way back and his 2-1 ATS start this season has
increased his pointspread prowess to 35-21-1 since the beginning of
2004. Even better, Johnson is 11-4 SUATS during the regular season when
playing with rest, including 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS as chalk of more than 3
points. Our powerful database backs that up with this beauty: Game Five
teams playing their fi rst road game off a SUATS win are only 7-17 versus
the number. Hey, Duke took this many points at home last year in a 41-24
loss and they were 25-point dogs here in a 28-point loss in 2006! Looks
like David Cutcliffe’s Devils will start a new ACC losing skein here today as
Tech males a wreck out of Duke.



UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
NEBRASKA over Missouri by 3
Go ahead… laugh if you want. The truth is No. 3 Missouri has beaten a
trio of 98-pound weaklings after opening the season with a diffi cult 10-
point win over Illinois. Translation: sure the Tigers are good but they’re
going to have to step WAY UP to prove it here today. The Corn Boys have
a bumper crop of good stats tucked in their silo: they’re 6-0 ATS playing
in their fourth straight at Lincoln, 13-2 SU and 14-1 ATS taking on Big 12
adversaries when playing off if three in a row at home and 10-1 SU and
ATS home versus undefeated conference opponents. Whew! The big, bad
Tigers are a woeful 0-3-1 lately as double-digit road chalk and they’ve
covered just ONCE if their last fi ve tries coming off a bye week. True,
Nebraska failed its fi rst major test against Virginia Tech but the Huskers
were undone by two Hokie trademarks, special teams and defense…
not exactly Missouri’s forte. With Nebraska the subject of this week’s
INCREDIBLE STAT (page 3), we can’t fade numbers like these – especially
when the series host has cashed six straight tickets. Children of the Corn
turn Memorial Stadium into a house of horrors for Mizzou today.

[ymmit2nd]

THE SPORTS MEMO -


ED CASH (4-0)

BRENT CROW (1-2)

ERIN RYNNING (1-0)

ROB VENO (1-1)

TEDDY COVERS (0-2).

TIM TRUSHEL (1-1).

JARED KLEIN (2-0)





ROB VENO
RUTGERS AT WEST VIRGINIA -14
Recommendation: West Virginia


ED CASH
DUKE +14 AT GEORGIA TECH
Recommendation: Duke


TEDDY COVERS
TEXAS TECH -7 AT KANSAS STATE
Recommendation: Texas Tech


JARED KLEIN
OHIO STATE AT WISCONSIN +3
Recommendation: Wisconsin


TIM TRUSHEL
OKLAHOMA AT BAYLOR +27
Recommendation: Baylor


BRENT CROW
TEXAS AT COLORADO +14
Recommendation: Colorado


ERIN RYNNING
ILLINOIS +2.5 AT MICHIGAN
Recommendation: Illinois

[ymmit2nd]

THE SPORTS REPORTER - NCAA

SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (6-11-1)
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (9-7-1)
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (1-2)




SUPER BEST BET

RUTGERS over *WEST VIRGINIA by 8
RUTGERS, 27-19.



BEST BET

*GEORGIA TECH over DUKE by 26
GEORGIA TECH, 41-15.


BEST BET
*MIAMI-OH over TEMPLE by 20
MIAMI-OH, 23-3.



BEST BET
MISSOURI over *NEBRASKA by 21
MISSOURI, 48-27.


BEST BET
*COLORADO over TEXAS by 1
COLORADO, 27-26.



BEST BET
*OKLAHOMA STATE over TEXAS A&M by 35
OKLAHOMA STATE, 48-13.


BEST BET
OHIO STATE over *WISCONSIN by 15
OHIO STATE, 25-10.

[ymmit2nd]

THE GOLD SHEET (9-11).

KEY RELEASES

MICHIGAN STATE by 19 over Iowa
CONNECTICUT by 3 over North Carolina
VANDERBILT by 5 over Auburn
ALABAMA by 28 over Kentucky


MICHIGAN STATE 36 - Iowa 17—MSU’s RB Ringer has 681 YR in his
last 3 games and leads the nation in scoring. Meanwhile QB Brian Hoyer
showed improved form at Indiana, throwing for 261 yds. & 2 TDs with no
interceptions. Iowa’s 5-TO performance against Northwestern shows Hawkeye
offense still has problems. QB Ricky Stanzi has 3 ints., just 1 TDP in last 54
passes, and a late-game head injury to star RB Greene clouds the offensive
picture. Iowa on 9-19-1 spread run. TV-ESPN2
(07-IOWA 34-Mich. St. 27 (OT)...M.23-13 I.44/230 M.52/160 M.25/44/0/308 I.5/15/0/53 I.0 M.1)
(07-IOWA +3 34-27 (OT)...SR: Iowa 20-17-2


*Connecticut 27 - NORTH CAROLINA 24—Both teams off uplifting
come-from-behind road wins led by reserve QBs. UConn soph QB Frazer
(Notre Dame transfer) has nation’s leading rusher in jr. Donald Brown (906 YR & 11
TDs), a physical OL featuring two 5th-yr. seniors and a more veteran defense that’s
allowed just 14 ppg. Favor undefeated Huskies energized by confident HC Edsall.
TV-ESPN2 (DNP...SR: N. Carolina 1-0)


*VANDERBILT 22 - Auburn 17—Since Auburn QB Todd (last in SEC
in pass efficiency) struggling in new spread attack (Tigers last in 3rd-down
conversions), willing to “take” with rested, confident Vandy, led by versatile QB
Nickson, who is expected to welcome back previously-injured WR G. Smith (top
returning pass catcher). Doubt Todd or backup Burns will suddenly shine vs.
aggressive, mistake-creating ‘Dore defense (11 sacks; 10 ints.), spearheaded by
marvelous, 2-way performer D. J. Moore (37 YR vs. Rice). TV-ESPN
(07-AUB. 35-Vandy 7...A.19-17 A.39/239 V.38/133 A.14/18/1/165 V.12/31/1/88 A.0 V.0)
(07-AUBURN -7' 35-7...SR: Auburn 20-19-1)



ALABAMA 38 - Kentucky 10—Now that highly-ranked Bama is in the
thick of national title hunt, believe mastermind Saban (unhappy with “lack of
intensity” in 3rd Q vs. Georgia) can prevent major letdown with fast-starting Tide
(outscoring foes 74-0 in 1st Q). Bama owns huge QB edge with polished J.P.
Wilson (63%, 6 TDs, 1 int.), whose ground assault (215 ypg, 13 TDs) will wear
down Kentucky defense. Tide’s stifling run defense has yielded only 1 rush TD
in last 24 Qs! TV—CBS
(DNP...SR: Alabama 33-2-1)

[ymmit2nd]

STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (10-9-1)...



10/1/2008 (303) LOUISIANA TECH at (304) BOISE ST
It seems that Boise State may be as good as ever, and from early
returns, it would appear that Louisiana Tech is also falling into its usual
patterns of performance. From a historical perspective that means
there could be good value with the Broncos this weekend in the made
for TV Wednesday night special. Boise has had its way with Tech on
the home turf, winning three games by an average of 36.0 PPG. The
only reason they are only 2-1 ATS in those contests is because they’ve
been favored by a whopping 29.8 on average. The Broncos have
scored 55, 55, & 36 points the last three times they’ve hosted LT. With
the Bulldogs allowing 442 YPG and 5.9 YPP, I’d say there is a great
chance Boise scores well above 40 points again. This trend says a lot:
LOUISIANA TECH is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units)
versus good offensive teams - averaging
>=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOUISIANA TECH
12.9, OPPONENT 48.2 - (Rating = 2*).
Don’t be scared of the number here, as
Tech is one of the worst road underdogs in
all of college football, being outscored by a
43.2-11.4 margin in their L14 opportunities
(3-11 ATS).
Play: Boise St -21.5





10/4/2008 (351) MISSOURI at (352)
NEBRASKA
Does the fact that Nebraska was a 7-point
home favorite over Virginia Tech and a
10-1/2 point home dog to Missouri mean
that the Tigers would be favored by almost
20 against the Hokies? Or this simply an
overreaction to last week’s line mistake in
the Cornhuskers’ game? I’d say more of
the latter. Nebraska is still a good team,
and their Outplay Factor number thus
far (+17.6) proves it. Missouri’s is just 2.5
points higher at this point, meaning both
teams are of elite caliber. Therefore, there’s
really no reason for the lofty double-digit pointspread. Let’s not forget
the Tigers’ historical troubles in Lincoln. Since ’92, Nebraska is 8-0 in
this series at home, playing to an average line of -23.2 and winning by
a 38-11 count. HC Gary Pinkel would be happy enough to just walk out
of this game with a win, never mind the pointspread. Nebraska will not
roll over for the Tigers on the home turf. Don’t fall for the overreaction
or Missouri’s stats vs. suspect defenses.
Play: Nebraska +10.5



10/4/2008 (379) BALL ST at (380) TOLEDO
In its first game without fallen WR Dante Love, Ball State barely missed
a beat, turning back Kent State 41-20 on the home turf. The Cardinals
used Love’s absence as a motivating tool for that game. This week’s
contest will be a real test however, as Ball State takes to the road to
face a Toledo team with which they have historically had problems. The
Rockets have consistently been one of the toughest teams in the MAC
when playing at home. They are 19-9 ATS against conference foes
under Tom Amstutz and have taken six of the L7 against Ball State in
Toledo. On top of that, HC Brady Hoke’s team is struggling defensively,
having allowed 400 YPG over their last four. If there is one recipe I
can suggest to stick to, it’s fading struggling defensive teams as road
favorites in environments where they have historically faltered.
Play: Toledo +7


10/4/2008 (385) OKLAHOMA at (386) BAYLOR
Oklahoma has put up some gaudy offensive numbers in the early
going but there are just certain spots on the schedule that are difficult
pointspread wins for even the best teams
in the country. This game in Waco could
be one of those for the Sooners. It is a
sandwich contest between the TCU game
last week and next week’s Red River
Rivalry showdown with Texas. However,
this isn’t just a situational spot. There are
some valid reasons by Baylor should prove
competitive in this game. The Bears are
drastically improved under Art Briles. In
fact, you should probably take all recent
Big 12 trends at this school and throw them
away, they no longer apply. Unlike past
seasons, this Baylor squad is able to both
run and throw on offense and defend the
run well on the other side of the ball. OU’s
defense meanwhile, hasn’t exactly been
dominant since the Week 1 win, allowing
325.3 PPG since. They typically aren’t a
great large favorite either: OKLAHOMA
is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a favorite of
21.5 to 31 points since 1992.The average
score was OKLAHOMA 33.9, OPPONENT
12.4. Don’t expect an outright upset here
but don’t assume this will be the usual
Oklahoma rout either.
Play: Baylor +27



10/4/2008 (393) OREGON at (394) USC
USC lost to an extremely motivated Oregon State team last Thursday
night. That in turn should make the Trojans extremely motivated
themselves for the next several weeks as they try to get back into the
national championship picture. A convincing win over Oregon would be
enough to get the pollsters to forget about the defeat and start the push
back to the top. There is one specific trend I like to point to when USC
welcomes any upper level team to L.A.: Pete Carroll is 11-3 ATS (+7.7
Units) in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+
PPG on the season as the coach of USC. The average score was USC
37.6, OPPONENT 16.6 - (Rating = 1*). I learned my lesson betting
against this team when it is motivated. I’ll back them here.
Play: USC -16.5

[ymmit2nd]

Pointwise


1* (4-6)

2* (0-6)




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

College Key Selections...
1--OKLAHOMA STATE over Texas A & M 54-20
1--TCU over San Diego State 54-10
2--Missouri over NEBRASKA 45-20
3--NEW MEXICO over Wyoming 38-7
4--ARIZONA over Washington 44-14
4--VANDERBILT (+) over Auburn 17-14
5--Texas over COLORADO 45-17
5--Nevada over IDAHO 52-17




OKLAHOMA STATE 54 - Texas A&M 20 - (7:00) -- Check it out. Cowboys piled
up 55 pts, 35 FDs, & 612 yds vs Troy's #12 "D", which held OhioSt to 309 yds.
Robinson, Hunter, Toston, & Co. A steamroller. Contrast that to Ags' #101 "O"
(14 FDs vs Army) & #103 run "O". 'Boys in consecutive series heartbreaks


TCU 54 - San Diego State 10 - (6:00) -- Frogs were overmatched at Okla, but
who isn't? Were +80½ pts ATS in previous 8 gms, & allow just 29 RYpg. The
Aztecs & QB Lindley (school-record 433 PYs) did their thing vs hapless Idaho,
but remember a 293-6 RY deficit in last RG (19-pt ATS loss). Romper Room!


Missouri 45 - NEBRASKA 20 - (9:00) -- Home series, & 'Huskers averaging 45
ppg in last 5 hosters. But also allowing 46 ppg in last 7 conference games, &
managed only 55 RYs in loss to VaTech. Rested Tigs at 42.4 ppg last 18 lined
gms, on 14-4 ATS run, with Daniel in off Big12 record 20 straight completions.



NEW MEXICO 38 - Wyoming 7 - (9:30) -- 'Boy woes continue. Eleven TOs last
2 wks, with 4 QBs tossing 4 INTs vs BG. Now at 10 INTs & just 6 TDs this yr.
Lobos sputtered LY, but check 297-48 RY edge vs NMexSt. WY 0-12-1 ATS!


ARIZONA 44 - Washington 14 - (7:30) -- What little hope Huskies had is now
gone with loss of Locker (thumb). No running, rank behind only SMU in "D"
column, & 0-4 start is Willingham's worst ever. Rested Wildcats have a 111-16
pt edge at home, & own nation's 6th ranked "D". Tuitama (10/2) leads this rout.

VANDERBILT 17 - Auburn 14 - (6:00) -- Tigers have had their way with 'Dores
(Wise Points), but enter off 3 wars (1-pt, 5-pt, 2-pt margins). Spectacular "D"
(9 FDs LW), but <100 RYs "O" last 2 wks. Vandy rested, & 4-0 for only 4th
time since WorldWarII. Solid overland game, & +62 pts ATS in the early going.



Texas 45 - COLORADO 17 - (7:00 - ABC) -- Steer QB McCoy 80-of-100 TY (17-
of-19 LW), with astounding 14/1. Balance, & a 28 RYpg "D" last 2 weeks. UT
has scored 59, 52, 52, 42, 52, & 52 pts in last 6 wins, & Buffs have allowed 30+
pts 7 times since LY. Buff QB Hawkins: just 47% LW, after entering at 70%.


Nevada 52 - IDAHO 17 - (5:00) -- Vandals the pits. Now -95½ pts ATS, allowing
43 ppg in last 20 outings. Made to order for 'Pack, which is in off 2nd 49-pt
effort of the year (444-54 RY edge), behind QB Kaepernick (5 TDs, 416 yds).

[ymmit2nd]

Winning Points-

WINNING POINTS BEST BET (6-4)
WINNING POINTS PREFERRED (9-13)





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

****BEST BET
SOUTH CAROLINA over MISSISSIPPI* by 14
SOUTH CAROLINA 31-17.




***BEST BET
MISSOURI over NEBRASKA* by 24
MISSOURI 40-16.




**PREFERRED
Tulane* over Army by 28
TULANE 38-10.

Miami O.* over Temple by 18
MIAMI O. 30-12.

Alabama* over Kentucky by 6
ALABAMA 20-14.

Ohio State over Wisconsin* by 13
OHIO STATE 27-14.

[ymmit2nd]

Kevin O'neil's -The Max-


DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (3-1)

ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (3-1)

MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (3-4)

KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (7-5)


SELECTIONS: October 2-6, 2008



Saturday, October 4th, 2008
Iowa (+9) over @Michigan State
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
The natives are getting restless in Iowa City
and more than a few fans are calling for Kirk
Ferentz' scalp. The Hawkeyes snatched another
defeat from the jaws of victory, this time in
their Big 10 opener against Northwestern. Up
17-3 late in the 2nd quarter Iowa managed to
fumble their way to a come from ahead 22-17
homecoming loss. After ringing up 159 yards
on 21 carries, Stud RB Shonn Greene sat out
the final quarter thanks to a vicious hit. His
presence might have provided the Hawkeyes
the edge needed to hold off the Wildcats. As I
write this Greene is expected to play on
Saturday. One has wonder whether Greene or
MSU's Javon Ringer is the fresher back. Greene
has carried the ball 99 times so far while
Ringer has averaged 42 carries over the past 3
games. Iowa's meltdowns have concealed
superior stats. Against FBS opponents the
Hawkeyes have a 4.9 to 2.9 yards per carry
advantage, while MSU gains and gives up 4.3
yards per carry. Iowa has a small edge in the
passing department, and the teams have faced
the same level of opposition.
My database pops a trio of bounceback
systems on Iowa; the records are 44-12, 65-
34, and 127-71 ATS. The Hawkeyes are also
favored by a 36-12 ATS system involving
single-digit road dogs. Michigan State applies
to a negative 113-196 ATS statistical matchup
indicator that is 1-2 so far in 2008 including a
winner against Ohio State last weekend. And
the final technical nail in the Spartan coffin is a
13-35 ATS system that plays against favorites
with a perfect mark inside their conference.
Given the recent performances of these teams I
would have expected a somewhat larger number.
Based on each team's average lines this season a
fair price would be somewhere from -9 to -10 on the
home team, but it opened 8. Still the stats and the
technical outlook strongly favor an Iowa team that
needs this game more than Michigan State. Take the
points. Michigan State by only 1





South Carolina (+2½) over @Mississippi
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
Nice upset by Mississippi last week. They went into
a very tough place to play, and stole a win from
Florida. The result was not shocking at all as we
called for Mississippi to hang tough in this space,
although we didn’t call for the outright win. And
according to the box score, Ole Miss didn’t beat
Florida, but more like the Gators beat themselves,
which falls directly on Urban Meyer. We pointed out
Meyer’s historically bad preparation in that spot, and
that’s exactly what cost Florida the game. On the
field, Florida did have 14 more first downs (24-10),
and 118 more yards (443-325). But Ole Miss won
the turnover battle (3-1) and also made big plays
throughout the game with the biggest being the
blocked extra point, which gave the Rebels a 31-30
win. A win is a win, whether it is earned or not. But
the magnitude of that win is so big that it is
inevitable that the Rebels have to suffer a letdown
this coming Saturday.
While the Rebels were pulling off a shocker in Gainesville,
South Carolina was playing in a non-eventful game with
UAB. The Gamecocks “squeaked” by the Blazers 26-13
and I say that because Carolina was a 25½-point favorite.
And to score just 26 points total is really not too
impressive. But there are some things to like. Their
defense was once again outstanding holding UAB to just
207 yards on 3.9 yards per play. UAB only had two drives
all game that went longer than 22 yards, and in fact,
Carolina held them to 8 drives of three and out. Steve
Spurrier also made a much needed move at quarterback by
playing heralded, but troubled, Stephen Garcia. The kid is
highly thought of, but off the field incidents have
prevented him from seeing much action. He played
fantastic hitting 13 of 20 for 131 yards. But his biggest
attribute comes with his legs where his mobility will
definitely help South Carolina’s struggling offense. Garcia
ran for 86 yards, and his presence will give Spurrier a
mobile QB, something he hasn’t had since Syvelle Newton
in 2005. With Newton, that team went 3-1 as a road
underdog, which included two straight-up wins, one being
at Arkansas when Houston Nutt was there. Garcia could
be the spark that Carolina needs.
The line on this game looks out of whack. In week two,
South Carolina was a 9½-point road favorite at Vanderbilt.
Two weeks back, Mississippi was a 7-point home favorite
over the same Vanderbilt team. Now, we have Ole Miss
laying almost a field goal to South Carolina. It just doesn’t
make any sense because South Carolina was rated 2½
better than Vanderbilt than what Mississippi was. And
Carolina would have been a much bigger favorite if the
game was on their home field. So we can take points with
the higher rated team because of last week’s results, and
knowing that SEC road teams are 8-3 straight-up in
conference play, we’ll play the underdog here. South
Carolina by 4.




@Vanderbilt (+4½) over Auburn
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Some teams don’t have much returning on the
offensive line and it murders them (Clemson, South
Carolina, Hello!!) Others don’t return much on the
offensive line but surprise with the quality of their
work and quietly do well. Such is the case of
Vanderbilt. Behind a reconstituted offensive line,
the Commodores are averaging 4.6 yards per rush
attempt. It allows them to play ball control, use
their terrific defense, and play conservatively until
“winning time”. That careful approach should come
in handy against an Auburn team that is suffering
from some fumbles and turnovers as they
implement their new offense. Vandy is 4-0 and that
includes conference wins against South Carolina and
Ole’ Miss.
I’m convinced that Auburn made the right hire in
Tony Franklin, but such a drastic change in offensive
philosophy is bound to take a little time. And
obviously Auburn’s offense has been an immense
struggle thus far. 226 yards and 14 points Saturday
at home against Tennessee, 21 points and 320
yards at home against LSU (one of the TD’s was by
the defense), and the colossal 3 points and 315
yards in the Tigers’ 3-2 win at Mississippi State.
And in the non-conference home games against
Louisiana-Monroe and Southern Miss hardly
exhibited a lot of fireworks. While Auburn has an
excellent defense, they’re having real troubles
creating any offense. This simply isn’t the profile of
a team that is worthy of support laying points on the
conference road. Vandy’s defense is more athletic
than people realize, but they also have some
vulnerabilities. But the struggles of the Auburn
offense make that less important.
Vandy has a nice schedule. They play four games,
get a week off, play another four, get a week off,
and then they play their final four games. This is a
nice week-off with revenge scenario for a team that
is playing with a lot of confidence. Though it’s early,
the rest may come in handy. Auburn is playing their
sixth straight game and the last three have gone
down to the last play. Showing up here flat
remembering a 35-7 win in Auburn last year
wouldn’t be a surprise. Vandy is the least fierce
venue on the SEC road but that’s changing some, as
there is genuine excitement over this outfit in
Nashville. Tommy Tuberville’s patience is being
tested with the struggles of the new offense. He’s
got offensive coordinator Franklin on a short leash,
and that will likely be even more the case in this
road game. This has all the makings of a field goal
affair, and we’ll call for the outright upset. Vandy
by 3.




Stanford (+7) @Notre Dame
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
We mentioned in a report to you last week that we
would have liked to have bet against both Purdue
and Notre Dame last Saturday, but unfortunately
these two overrated teams were playing each other.
It was a nice comeback win for the Irish, as they
trailed early but came back to notch a 38-21 win.
ND had some breaks (Purdue led 14-7 with the
Irish’s only score at the time being a long INT return
of the game’s lone turnover), but played their best
game of the campaign. But you would hope so. A
dull win over San Diego State is not exactly flattered
by the Aztecs ineptitude against everyone else, 6
turnovers by Michigan fueled a win over the
Wolverines (leading fumblers in the country) in a
game that saw ND outgained by 128 yards. Then
the Irish were held to 16 yards rushing in a 23-7
loss at East Lansing. In the win over Purdue. Notre
Dame outgained their opponent for the first time
this season. No real accomplishment, as Purdue,
traveling for the first time this season, has yet to
outgain a Division 1-A team this season, getting
outyarded against both Oregon and Central Michigan
by over 90 yards each.
Though his achievements have been little noticed,
Jim Harbaugh has done a terrific job resurrecting
the Stanford program. After previous Buddy
Teevens’ poor recruiting helped doom Walt Harris to
a 1-11 record in 2006, with only one loss by less
than 9 points, Jim Harbaugh replaced him before
last season. A lot of folks were fading Washington
due to an extreme revenge factor for the Huskies,
and leading rusher Toby Gerhart went out with a
mild concussion in the first quarter. But none of it
bothered Stanford, as Anthony Kimble stepped up
and ran for 168 yards in a 35-28 win Stanford win
that was 35-21 before a late UW garbage time
score. Tavita Pritchard is coming into his own, and
he had 222 yards passing on only 24 attempts for
three TD’s. The Cardinal did benefit from Jake
Locher breaking his finger in the second quarter, but
they were containing the Washington QB
impressively at the time.
Averaging 3.3 yards per rush, Notre Dame is once
again one of the worst rushing teams in the country,
so they’re opening things up. Stanford is prepared
for some of Notre Dame’s new approaches. In Pac
Ten play they regularly see the 4-wide and 5-wide
formations the Irish used against Purdue. The
Cardinal outgained the Irish in a 21-14 home loss
last season, so they know there is no reason they
can’t play with the Golden Domers. While Notre
Dame has been hanging out at home, with only a
single road game at Michigan State, this is already
Stanford’s fourth road game, and they won’t be intimidated
after already visiting Arizona State, TCU, and Washington.
Look for underrated Stanford to be right in there in this
one against overrated Notre Dame. Stanford by 1.


@Nebraska (+11) over Missouri
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
Nebraska wanted to get back to Nebraska football
with the hire of Bo Pelini. Bill Callahan and his west
coast offense were not a big hit in Lincoln. And
after last year’s 5-7 campaign, athletic director and
former coach Tom Osborne fired Callahan and hired
Pelini away from LSU. Offensively, the Huskers
were fine last year (over 33 points per game), but it
was their defense that was terrible (allowed 37
points per game). Knowing the defense needed
fixing, Osborne got a defensive minded coach in
Pelini. And until last week, Pelini’s team allowed 24
points or less in their first three games.
Virginia Tech scored 35 points while handing
Nebraska their first loss of the year. But the
defense played a lot better than the 35 points
allowed indicate. They only allowed two
touchdowns that came on extended drives. The
Blackshirts forced 4 field goals, and the other nine
points came on a safety after a blocked punt and an
11-yard scoring drive after an interception. Now
Virginia Tech’s offense isn’t all that good, and not
even on the same planet as Missouri’s, but
Nebraska’s defense has done a 180 from last year.
The Huskers were forced to deal with the mobility of
Tyrod Taylor and a power running game, but they
face just the opposite here. Missouri is a passing
juggernaut, and Pelini’s previous work as a
defensive coordinator should come into play. He
and his brother Carl (defensive coordinator) should
be able to devise a solid defensive game plan in
order to try and slowdown Missouri’s attack. That’s
easier said than done, but the fact that Nebraska
runs the ball more now than they did in the last four
years under Callahan gives them a chance to stay in
this game. Their best defense may be their offense,
as they’ll try to shorten the game while running
more.
Missouri continues to roll. They’ve scored 42 points
or more in every game so far this year, and every
win has been by 10 points or more. They also enter
this game off a bye, but not so sure that’s a good
thing for them this early in the season. Missouri is
an offensive machine that is built on timing between
quarterback Chase Daniel and his receivers. So their
timing may be off just enough to allow Nebraska to
hang around early which would certainly give the
Huskers added confidence. This is also their first
true road game of the year. It’s not much of a
factor because the Tigers have experience, but head
coach Gary Pinkel has bad numbers as a road
favorite. Last year, they covered all three times as a
road favorite. But they were laying only 6, 3 ½, and
7 points. And over the 6 years before that, Pinkel
was just 3-9-1 as a road favorite with Missouri. That
history, along with this absurd double-digit line,
makes the home dog very attractive here. Missouri
by only 3.



@Miami-FL (-2.5)[/color] over Florida State
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Both programs have made major overhauls to their
respective coaching staffs over the last couple of
seasons, and this game will be a good measuring
stick to see which team is further along. If you read
my FSU/Wake Forest writeup two weeks back, you
know that I am a very critical of the culture and
leadership at Florida St. right now with Jimbo Fisher
waiting to replace Bobby Bowden. On the other
hand, although a young Miami team led by a young
staff is undergoing a bit of baptism under fire right
now, I like the overall direction the Canes are
headed under Randy Shannon. Shannon's players
would run through fire for him, and he has
experience as a coach and a player in this
passionate rivalry. Last season, a very bad, very
injury-riddled UM team lost 6 of its last 7 games, but the
only win was as a 5-point underdog at Tallahassee. Also,
in Shannon's 4 seasons as a player at UM, he never lost to
some very good Seminole teams. In fact, over the past 25
years (which includes 1 bowl game), if you take out a 4-0
SU/ATS run by Florida St. from 1995 to 1998 when the
'Canes were buried under probation-induced scholarship
limits, this has been UM's series as they have a 16-6 SU/
14-7-1 ATS mark against FSU.
FSU's offense in recent years has really struggled due to
the lack of a running game as, despite some talented
backs, they have only averaged over 3.7 yards per rush or
more than 135 yards per game on the ground once (2004)
in the last 5 seasons. Last week they busted out against
Colorado with 250 yards on 5.7 ypr and they will need to
duplicate that ground success to win games this year.
However, I'm very skeptical they can do that against a
Miami defense whose front 7, especially a very good set of
LBs, is their strength. Miami's new defensive coordinator
Bill Young coached some great run defenses at Kansas (no
more than 109 ypg or 3.5 ypr in the last 3 seasons in a
very good running conference), and the Canes are only
allowing 2.1 ypr on the season defensively. Having seen
FSU play a couple times, the 16-40, 4.2 yards per pass, 0/4
ratio posted by Sophomore QB Christian Ponder in 2 games
against 1A opponents this season is every bit as bad as it
looks. Ponder is not a very good QB right now. He will not
be able to exploit UM's weakness, which is a 7.7 ypp
secondary that cost them the game last week against
North Carolina. Miami's corners are very mediocre, and
there have been some blown coverages in Young's new
aggressive scheme. However, Ponder is not the QB to take
advantage of this.
That's not to say that young Cane QBs, Robert Marve and
Jacory Harris, will not struggle against FSU DC Mickey
Andrews' pressure D. However, both of these two,
especially Marve who plays most of the game, rate a huge
edge over Ponder. Miami has greatly improved on offense
since struggling early on against a tough Florida defense,
and the matchups in this game favor them, as I don't
believe FSU will be able to maintain the success it found on
the ground vs. CU last week. Despite last week's results, I
still believe UM is a little further along at this point. Those
results give us value here, and home field and superior QB
play will lead UM to a win which, at this price, should bring
home the money as well. Miami by 7



@Wisconsin (+2½) over Ohio State
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Absolutely dominating the proceedings in the first
half, only to inexplicably let it slip away, Wisconsin’s
loss to Michigan was simply one of those wacky
things you have to just write off. It isn’t often that
you blow a 19-0 halftime lead, and if Indiana or
Northwestern or somebody like that was coming to
town it’d be tough to get up for the game. But
that’s not the case. You’re looking at the mighty
Buckeyes rolling into Madison, and that will keep
Wisconsin’s mind on business this week.
4-1 Ohio State continues to massively underperform
to the pointspread, losing by a combined 52½
points in failing to cover all four lined games. And
that’s been reflected in this line. Ohio State laying
less than a TD definitely would have looked good in
the summertime, with 17 starters returning to an
Ohio State team that played for the national
championship. But the Buckeyes are not
developing. Are some of those returning starters
more concerned with their potential draft status and
other individual concerns? Could be.
Beanie Wells will be the healthiest he’s been since
his injury, and he went for 106 yards on only 14
carries (7.6 yards per attempt) in a win over the
Minnesota Golden Gophers on Saturday. Obviously,
his return makes things different, but Wisconsin’s D
is tons better than Minnesota’s. Camp Randall
Stadium is a terrific environment, and a legitimate
home field edge will be in play. Obviously Terrell
Pryor is a unique talent to have displaced the
veteran Todd Boeckman. But this is his first road
start in a wickedly intense environment. His center
is also a true freshman, and won’t the line calls be
difficult in this environment, particularly when
dealing with an inexperienced classmate as your
signal caller?
Mental errors killed Wisconsin in Ann Arbor. The
game would have gone to overtime if it weren’t for a
penalty due to a mistake in offensive alignment on a
successful two-point conversion. Michigan players
knocked Wisconsin’s physical conditioning, saying
that they were fresher late. That will add to the
focus here, and the desire to prepare. This is the
first visit to Wisconsin by Ohio State since 2003. A
game that Wisconsin won outright at a (lookie here)
2½-point underdog. The Badgers have been home
dogs six times since 2001. In each instance there
was concern that their opponent was too athletic
and would outclass them. Wisconsin covered all six
times. We’ll look for the same here with a big,
tough, physical team that will put everything they
have into this one off of the Michigan loss.
Wisconsin by 4.

[ymmit2nd]

North Coast Sports

Comp Under Dog Pow...iowa State

Early Bird Pow.... Florida

#2 Economy Club Play ..minnesota -7

Pac 10 Pow ...california

Big 12 Pow....texas Tech

[ymmit2nd]

Pigskin Prophet

Missouri....44-27
Southern Mississippi....35-23

[ymmit2nd]

Marc Lawrence 100% CFB Super Super Pick Super Play! - Saturday 10/4:

Play On: Stanford

Note: Notre Dame returns home to host Stanford Saturday afternoon with the Cardinal looking to avenge a 7-point home loss last year. While the Irish appear to have turned things around the fact of the matter is they are still being outgained on the playing field, allowing 51 YPG more than they gain this season. With the Dame 0-8 ATS against avenging opponents, look for Stanford to get their revenge against the Irish.

[GATA]

LSU Dawg

Auburn -4
Tennessee -15.5
Ole Miss -2.5
Alabama -15.5
Florida -24.5

[SiberianExpress]

maddux sports


looks like a win on friday on utah st +29. here's the one update from yesterday. there should be one more tomorrow morning and i will try to post that. these lines are from the beginning of the week. i believe the line now for iowa is dropped below 7 so i bought it up to 7. hopefully we won't need it.


Football
#321 - NCAA - 5 units on Iowa +8
#358 - NCAA - 3 units on California -9
#383 - NCAA - 3 units on UTEP +8
#394 - NCAA - 3 units on Tulsa -14

[thekeyman]

Big Al- (cfb early releases)

4* Iowa --- BIG 10 GOY
3* Tulsa
3* Vandy
3* Kentucky
3* Colorado
3* Nebraska
3* Notre Dame

[thekeyman]

Scott Spreitzer

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Home Chalk GOY West Virginia

[thekeyman]

Erin Rynning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

20* north texas.
reg. kent st.
reg baylor.

[thekeyman]

<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Dave Cokin Pac 10 GOY

California

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"><TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smalltext width="100%" colSpan=2></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[thekeyman]

Glen Mcgrew

Cfb Trifecta Of The Year

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami Ohio,

Utep

Ok St

[thekeyman]

INDIAN COWBOY


Vandy +4 (POD)

Iowa ST. +11.5

Kentucky +15.5

Northern Illionois +16.5

Wyoming +11.5

[SiberianExpress]

maddux sports final update for saturday

Football
#321 - NCAA - 5 units on Iowa +8
#358 - NCAA - 3 units on California -9
#383 - NCAA - 3 units on UTEP +8
#394 - NCAA - 3 units on Tulsa -14
#386 - NCAA - 3 units on Baylor +24.5
#388 - NCAA - 3 units on Oklahoma State -25
#355 - NCAA - 3 units on Florida State +2

[Jr Boy]

here there full card:
321 - NCAA - 5 units on Iowa +8
#358 - NCAA - 3 units on California -9
#383 - NCAA - 3 units on UTEP +8
#394 - NCAA - 3 units on Tulsa -14
#386 - NCAA - 3 units on Baylor +24.5
#388 - NCAA - 3 units on Oklahoma State -25
#355 - NCAA - 3 units on Florida State +2


you get can maingate from the thereal animal website.

[Jr Boy]

3* illinois
3* florida st
2* navy
2* oregon
2* wash st.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Bettors World Key Release

3* Colorado +14 or better over Texas - (released to the email list Tuesday) Often times in our write ups we refer to last season. Or, in some instances, the history of a program. At times, last season means nothing when looking at a game to take place this now. However, often times you can learn a lot about what to expect by doing so. This is one such case, we feel.

There is still some uncertainly with this play. That uncertainly lies with Texas. We simply don't know how good they are. Sure, they are 4-0 and blowing teams away but they have faced some pretty bad teams so far. Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Rice and Arkansas. UTEP lost to Buffalo 42-17. While Texas beat UTEP 42-13, the score was 28-13 at the half and UTEP held Texas scoreless in the 3rd, only to give up 2 TD's in the 4th. But UTEP had more total yards, more on the ground and almost as much thru the air. 412 total. It wasn't as much as a mismatch as the score board indicated.

Texas did dominate the other 3 they faced but again, look at who it was. We can't get too excited about that. Yet this line no doubt reflects that performance. That, and last weeks visit to Florida State by Colorado which didn't go as planned.

So let's take a look back to last year. We have mentioned that we felt Colorado is a team on the rise. They are headed in the right direction. Remember the West Virginia game where we mentioned stepping stones. Look at any team that turns the program around and you'll find signature victories along the way. This Colorado team already has a couple of those signature wins. Last year they beat Oklahoma at home 27-24. They played #15 Kansas close, but lost 19-14, they beat Texas Tech and they beat Nebraska in a shoot out 65-51.

How is any of that significant now? Well, Colorado returns a good chunk of last years starters on offense including QB Cody Hawkins. They also have 8 starters on defense back. Texas also returns a good chunk on offense but only 4 on the defensive side of the ball. Texas lost to Oklahoma last year and only got by Nebraska by a field goal. They also lost to Texas AM and we're damn lucky to get by Central Florida early in the year. So we have some common opponents from last year that would indicate that Colorado can play on the same level as Texas. We also have some opponents that beat or played well against Texas that were just mediocre teams. So this tells us is that the talent is there on this Colorado team, to compete with Texas. What we're asking of the Buffs is not impossible. Recent history proves that. Teams change from year to year, but they don't change drastically. They get a little better, or a little worse in most cases.

Having played two decent teams their last two games in Florida State and West Virginia is a positive for Colorado here. You don't get better, or improve areas that need improving, by playing cupcakes. When you breeze through the little sisters of the poor for 4 weeks straight, there tends to be a false sense of security. Colorado, talent-wise, is better than any team Texas has faced this year.

Having a little added motivation never hurts our cause. Such is the case with this game. Now, there's revenge in college football, and then there's REVENGE with capital letters. Plain old revenge is getting even for a loss. REVENGE is getting even for a humiliation which is what happened to Colorado in 2005, the last time these two played. Texas handed the Buffs their 3rd worst defeat in the history of their program and their worst defeat since 1946! Sure, not many of the current Colorado players were around to remember that loss, but they'll be reminded of it often enough this week.

Revenge only works if the team seeking it is capable of pulling it off. We have outlined above why we think Colorado is capable. What adds to the appeal of this play is that we are getting 2 full touchdowns or more. A valiant effort still gets us the money.

There are concerns. Colorado is hurting on the offensive line. You don't want line troubles heading into a game against Texas. This is a young Colorado team. The offense only has 3 seniors. They will be a Big 12 force in the coming 2-3 years as QB Hawkins is only a Sophomore and they have a couple of fantastic rookie backs. Whether or not they take a giant step in that direction this week remains to be seen, but the talent is there to at least put forth a huge effort.

Oh, it's also homecoming. Guess who came to town last year on Homecoming? Oklahoma. Ranked #3 at the time. They left with their tail between their legs and a 27-24 loss. We'll take our chances here. The stronger schedule to date, the results against good teams and common opponents last year, the revenge factor, the altitude, Homecoming, it all adds up. Colorado +14

[Can'tPickaWinner]

MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty hit with the Rays last night and is now even for the year.

Today it's UNLV and Ohio University.

[Dubya]

RIGHT ANGLE SPORTS

Play: #342 Western Michigan -4 for 1 UNIT

Play: #395 Wyoming +12 for 1 UNIT


TOTALS

(Friday Game)
#312 Cincinnati/Marshall UNDER 49 for 1 UNIT

#388 Texas A&M/Oklahoma State UNDER 63 for 1 UNIT

#396 Wyoming/New Mexico UNDER 43.5 for 1 UNIT

[Dubya]

ACE-ACE CFB/NFL COMBINED (21-8):
CFB:
$1000 Take #338 Vanderbilt (+4)
$500.00 Take #331 Texas Tech (-7.5)
$300.00 Take #340 Illinois (+2.5)
NFL:
$2000.00 Take Washington (+6)
$2000.00 Take Denver (-3)
$800.00 Take Buffalo (+1.5)
$400.00 Take ‘Under’ 44.5 Chicago at Detroit
$300.00 Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Indianapolis at Houston
$300.00 Houston +3
$400.00 SWEETHEART TEASER: Take Washington (+16), Take Vanderbilt (+14.5), and Take Kansas City (+19.5)

SPYLOCK :
5* WISCONSIN
1* UL LAFAYETTE
1* BOSTON COLLEGE

[chase88]

JEFFERSONSPORTS EARLY RELEASES
HIT 10 of last 14 Football Plays
FLORIDA-24 -135 if you cant buy to 24 play sma;;
WEST VIRGINIA-13.5 -120

[Dubya]

Marco franchetti pick's

4*iowa
4*florida
4*vanderbilt
4*alabama

3*arizona
3*maryland
3*wisconsin
3*v.tech/w.kentucky over
3*v.tech

free play's
ucla
toledo
vanderbilt/auburn under

[Dubya]

DOC

4 Unit Play. #88 Take Minnesota Golden Gophers over Indiana Hoosiers

[Dubya]

BURNS
UNDERDOG GAME OF YEAR I'm taking the points with KENT STATE.
BIG TEN GAME OF WEEK I'm taking the points with PURDUE.
ULTIMATE REPORT I'm taking the points with IOWA.
BIG 12 GAME OF WEEK I'm taking the points with BAYLOR.
MAIN EVENT I'm taking the points with NEBRASKA.

[The Boss]

Maddux any good in college football

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Cajun-Sports Gator Report Newsletter for Saturday October 4, 2008

Gator Report CFB 15-10 ATS +280
Gator Report NFL 12-1 ATS +1090


NCAA “Tech” Game of the Week:

12:00 PM EDT

2 STAR SELECTION

Rutgers +14 over WEST VIRGINIA

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WEST VIRGINIA 34 RUTGERS 27


NCAA 70% Super Situations:

>NCAA Saturday: Play Under CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 in weeks 5 through 9. This situation is 24-4 Under (85.7%) since 2003.
PLAY: Rice / Tulsa Under 80


Gator Report NCAA Games of the Week:

>SEC GOW (2-2 -.20 ): Kentucky +15½ over ALABAMA 3:30 PM EDT


>ACC GOW (1-0 +100): Florida State +2 over Miami, Fl 3:30 PM EST


>“BIG EASY” GOW (4-1 +290): TCU -24½ over San Diego State 6:00PM EST

>Underdog GOW (3-1 +190): NEBRASKA +10½ over Missouri 9:00PM EST
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Hondo

Hondo's October run of futility continued yesterday when those darn Chisox failed their assignment against the Rays, which lowered the total in the vault to 655 roseboros.

Today, he'll vacate the diamond district and try to be a BBMOC (big betting man on campus) with Texas Tech - 10 units on the revved-up Red Raiders to KO K- State.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL



(6) Penn State (5-0, 3-1 ATS) at Purdue (2-2, 1-2 ATS)
The Nittany Lions leave the comforts of Happy Valley for just the second time this season when they go to West Lafayette, Ind., to take on Purdue in a Big Ten matchup.
Penn State has opened the season with five straight wins, including last week’s 38-24 victory over Illinois, though Joe Paterno’s club came up just short as a 15-point home favorite, its first non-cover of the season. In their lone road trip this season, the Nittany Lions went to Syracuse and delivered a 55-13 beatdown as 27½-point road chalk. Penn State comes into this contest ranked fourth in the nation in scoring (49.8 points per game) and ninth in total offense (515.2 yards per game).
Purdue couldn’t stop Notre Dame last weekend in South Bend, giving up 476 yards in a 38-21 loss as a two-point road ‘dog. The Boilermakers have scored 21 or more points in every game this season, but they’ve been outrushed in every contest and outgained in their last three. Also, senior QB Curtis Painter has not been on top of his game this season, throwing just five TDs and four INTs.
Painter has not thrown a TD pass in 104 attempts over three games against Penn State, and the Purdue offense hasn’t scored a TD in its last two matchups, including a 12-0 home loss in 2006. The Nittany Lions won last year’s game 26-19 in Happy Valley, but came up short as an eight-point favorite. Penn State is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, and the straight-up winner is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.
Penn State is just 12-20 ATS on the road in Big Ten action since 2000, and they are on additional ATS slides of 3-8 on the road overall and 1-7 in conference roadies. Purdue is on a slew of ATS nosedives, including 1-5 overall, 7-15 at home, 3-14 in October, 8-20 against teams with a winning record and 5-17 following a straight-up loss.
The over is 4-1 in the Lions’ last five conference games and 4-1 in their last five after a straight-up win. Meanwhile the under is on a plethora of runs for the Boilermakers, including 26-8-2 at home, 27-10 in Big Ten matchups, 16-5 in October and 12-5 following non-cover. Finally, the under has been the play in this rivalry each of the last the last six years.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PENN STATE and UNDER



(24) UConn (5-0, 2-2 ATS) at North Carolina (3-1, 2-1 ATS)
UConn is trying to go 6-0 for the first time in 14 years when it visits Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill, N.C., to take on the Tar Heels.
The Huskies opened last season 5-0 to catapult themselves into the Top 25 and they’ve done the same this year, with three of the victories coming in thrilling fashion. That includes last week’s 26-21 win at Louisville as a 3½-point underdog, as UConn got an interception return for a touchdown for the winning score in the waning minutes. The Huskies also narrowly edged Baylor 31-28 back on Sept. 19 as a 13-point home favorite and got a 12-9 overtime win over Temple in a downpour in Philadelphia, coming up short as a seven-point favorite.
UConn’s offense revolves around stud RB Ronald Brown, a junior who is the nation’s leading rusher with 906 yards in five games, and he is second in scoring with 11 TDs.
North Carolina rallied for a 28-24 road win in Miami last week, cashing as a 7½-point underdog. The Tar Heels got the job done in South Florida behind backup QB Cameron Sexton, who threw for 242 yards and a pair of fourth-quarter TDs against the Hurricanes, including the game-winner with less than a minute to play.
UConn is on ATS slides of 5-12 as a road ‘dog since 2003, 1-5 against winning teams and 1-4 in its last five on the road overall, but the Huskies are on positive pointspread runs of 28-13-1 in non-conference action and 4-0 in October contests. North Carolina is on ATS streaks of 12-5-1 in October and 4-1 in non-conference action, but they are on slides of 1-5 against Big East foes and 2-7 ATS as a home favorite since 2003.
For the Huskies, the under is on streaks of 7-2 vs. ACC foes, 13-6 in non-conference action, 6-0 in October and 5-1 on the highway. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels have topped the total in six of their last eight against the Big East, but the under is 4-0 in their last four at home.
These two teams have not met since 1990 when North Carolina scored a 48-21 win, getting the cash as a 14-point favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE



South Carolina (3-2, 2-2 ATS) at Mississippi (3-2, 3-1 ATS)
In what might just boil down to an early elimination game in the SEC, South Carolina heads to Oxford, Miss., to take on Ole Miss at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks have beaten two inferior opponents in Wofford (23-13 in a non-lined contest) and UAB (26-13 as a 26-point favorite) the last two weeks after losing back-to-back SEC contests to Georgia and Vanderbilt. Redshirt freshman QB Stephen Garcia will get the start today after throwing for 131 yards, rushing for 86 and accounting for two TDs in the ‘Cocks win over UAB.
South Carolina’s defense leads the SEC in total yards allowed (221.4 ypg) and is fourth in scoring defense (12.8 ppg).
Mississippi pulled off the upset of the week last Saturday, going to Gainesville and shocking Florida 31-30 as a 23-point ‘dog. The Gators scored late in the game, but Ole Miss blocked the ensuing game-tying PAT attempt. Houston Nutt’s offense averages 172 rushing yards per game and 214 through the air, but his defense has allowed 23.4 points per game this season. QB Jevan Snead paces the offense, throwing for 1,029 yards, but his eight TD passes have been offset by eight INTs.
These squads haven’t met since 2004, when Ole Miss went to South Carolina and prevailed 31-28 as a 17-point underdog. The Rebels have won all four meetings dating back to 1998 (2-2 ATS), but three of the four contests have been decided by three points or less with the underdog going 3-1 ATS and the road team a perfect 4-0 ATS.
South Carolina is 7-2-1 ATS as a road underdog under Spurrier, but otherwise the ATS numbers aren’t pretty for the ‘Cocks, including 2-7-1 overall, 1-4 in October kickoffs, 0-5-1 in SEC action, 0-4 on the road and 0-4 following a straight-up win. Conversely, the Rebels are on ATS streaks of 8-3-1 at home, 6-1 overall, 4-1 in SEC play and 4-1 in October.
For the Gamecocks, the under is on runs of 4-0-1 overall, 25-9-1 on the road and 6-2 following a non-cover. The under is also 9-3 in the Rebels’ last 12 October games. But the over has been the play in the last two head-to-head meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER



(7) Texas Tech (4-0, 1-1-1 ATS) at Kansas State (3-1, 1-2 ATS)
Kansas State tries to remain perfect at home in 2008 while trying to slow one of the most potent offenses in the country in this Big 12 battle with Texas Tech, which arrives in Manhattan carrying a six-game winning streak.
The Wildcats have posted three double-digit wins at home, all against inferior foes North Texas (45-6), Montana State (69-10) and Louisiana-Lafayette (45-37). However, the one time it stepped up in class, Kansas State lost 38-29 at Louisville as a 5½-point road underdog, getting outgained 577-343. Wildcats QB Josh Freeman (67 percent completion rate, 1,105 yards, 11 TDs, 2 INTs) has been solid, but the defense is allowing 22.8 points and 370.5 yards per outing.
The Red Raiders prepped for this Big 12 opener with a 56-14 home win over Massachusetts in a non-lined game on Sept. 20. Senior QB Graham Harrell (64.5 percent completion rate, 1,573 yards, 12 TDs, three INTs) paces a Texas Tech offense that’s averaging 47 points and 572.8 total yards per game, including 426.2 passing ypg. But the biggest surprise has been the play of the Red Raiders’ defense, which is yielding only 16 points and 346 yards per contest.
Texas Tech is on a 3-0 SU and 4-0 ATS roll against the Wildcats, with the most recent meeting coming in 2005, when the Red Raiders cruised to a 59-20 victory as a 15-point home chalk.
Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS as a road favorite dating to last season, 4-1-1 ATS in its last six on artificial turf and 35-17 ATS in its last 52 October games. Meanwhile, Kansas State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven lined games, but 13-6 ATS in its last 19 at home.
Despite their explosive offense, Texas Tech has stayed under the total in eight of its last 10 games overall and six of its last seven in Big 12 play. Conversely, K-State is on over runs of 35-16 overall, 20-7 in league action and 4-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE



(13) Auburn (4-1, 1-4 ATS) at (19) Vanderbilt (4-0 SU and ATS)
Off to one of the most surprising starts in college football, Vanderbilt looks to remain perfect when it hosts 13th-ranked Auburn in an SEC battle.
The Commodores opened SEC play with a 23-17 upset win at Mississippi as a seven-point road underdog back on Sept. 20, then took last week off. Vandy is putting up nearly 30 points per game despite an offense that’s averaging only 282.8 total yards per contest, including 80.8 ypg on the ground. In fact, the Commodores have been outgained in three of their four wins – including by a 385-202 margin at Ole Miss – and the defense is surrendering 81 more ypg than the offense is producing.
Auburn bounced back from a difficult 26-21 home loss to LSU by eking out a 14-12 home win over Tennessee last week. However, the Tigers, failed to cover as a 6½-point home favorite and have yet to cash a ticket this season.
Auburn has defeated Vanderbilt 13 straight times dating to 1995, and that includes a 35-7 rout as a seven-point home favorite in 2007. The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including three straight spread-covers since 2002, with the average margin of victory being 30 ppg (37-7).
In addition to its spread-covering woes this year, Auburn has failed to cover in five of its last six league games. But the Tigers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 in October and 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the highway. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is just 3-6 ATS as a home underdog since 2005 and 10-21-1 ATS in its last 32 in October
For Auburn, the under is on runs 6-1 overall, 9-3 in SEC action and 5-2 on the road. For Vanderbilt, the under streaks include 11-4-1 overall, 7-2-1 at home, 9-1-1 in conference and 4-0 in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: AUBURN and UNDER




Illinois (2-2, 1-2 ATS) at Michigan (2-2, 1-3 ATS)
Illinois faces its second tough Big Ten road test when it travels to Ann Arbor to take on the resurgent Wolverines, who are coming off the biggest come-from-behind victory in Michigan Stadium history.
The Illini went to Happy Valley last week and became Penn State’s latest victim, falling 38-24, but cashing as a 15-point underdog. Illinois had a balanced offensive attack (183 passing yards, 189 rushing yards), but its leaky defense couldn’t stop the Nittany Lions, giving up 422 total yards, including 241 on the ground. For the season, the Illini are surrendering 32 points and 384 total yards per game (182.5 rushing ypg).
Michigan stormed back from a 19-0 halftime deficit in last week’s Big Ten opener against Wisconsin and held on for a 27-25 victory as a 5½-point home underdog, its first spread-cover of the season. The Wolverines prevailed despite just 96 passing yards and five turnovers (all in the first half), but the defense forced four Badgers turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown.
These schools met last year for the first time since 2004, and Michigan prevailed 27-17 as a 1½-point road favorite, improving to 39-4-2 SU all-time against the Illini. The Wolverines have won the last five meetings in a row since 2001, going 4-1 ATS, all as a favorite.
Michigan snapped an 0-5-1 ATS regular-season slide with last week’s win and cover, and the Wolverines are now 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Big Ten contests, as well as 8-2 ATS in its last 10 in October. Meanwhile, by getting the cash at Penn State, Illinois improved to 8-2 ATS in its last 10 true road games and 4-0 ATS in its last four Big Ten outings. On the downside, the Illini are in ATS ruts of 22-47 after a SU defeat and 6-15 in October.
The over is on runs of 6-1 for Illinois overall, 5-0 for Illinois on the road, 4-0 for Illinois on artificial turf and 4-1 for Michigan overall. However, the under is 12-5 in the Wolverines’ last 17 conference contests, and 2-0 in the last two meetings between these teams (both at Illinois).
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN




(4) Missouri (4-0, 2-1 ATS) at Nebraska (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
Nebraska will try to bounce back from its first loss of the Bo Pelini era when it hosts Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Daniel and the high-scoring Tigers in the conference opener for both Big 12 North rivals.
After blowing out three weak non-conference opponents – Western Michigan, San Jose State and New Mexico State – by the combined score of 120-43, the Huskers finally met their match last week, losing 35-30 to Virginia Tech as a seven-point home favorite. Nebraska’s offense produced just 333 total yards and 14 first downs, and the Huskers got outrushed 206-55 and lost the turnover battle 2-0.
Missouri has been idle since a 42-21 win over Buffalo on Sept. 20, coming up short as a hefty 31½-point home favorite. The 42 points were the fewest the Tigers have scored this season, as the offense is netting nearly 54 points and 595.5 total yards per game. Daniel has been the catalyst, completing an astounding 77 percent of his throws for 1,412 yards with 12 TDs and just one interception.
The home team is on a 6-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, including Missouri’s 41-6 rout in Columbia last year as a 6½-point chalk. Each of the last nine series meetings dating to 1999 has been decided by double digits, with eight decided by at least two touchdowns.
Going back to last year, Nebraska has alternated ATS wins and losses in its last nine games, but otherwise the Huskers sport a bunch of negative ATS trends, including 4-11 overall, 3-7 at home, 2-7 in Big 12 games, 4-10-1 on artificial turf, 1-4 in October and 2-9 against winning teams.
Missouri is 7-1 ATS on the highway since last year, going 3-0 ATS as a road favorite. The Tigers are also on pointspread runs of 14-4 overall, 7-3 in conference play, 4-0 after an ATS setback and 9-3 versus winning teams.
The over for the Cornhuskers is on streaks of 5-2 overall and 15-6 in Lincoln, while the over is 6-1 in Mizzou’s last seven on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI and OVER



(5) Texas (4-0 SU and ATS) at Colorado (3-1, 2-1 ATS)
Texas quietly rolled through a perfect September and now figures to face its stiffest test of the season when it travels to Colorado for a Big 12 clash.
The Longhorns are coming off identical 52-10 home routs of Rice and Arkansas, covering easily as 29- and 27½-point favorites. Texas has given up exactly 10 points in three of its first four games (allowing just 13 in the other), and the offense has produced exactly 52 points in four of five games going back to last December’s 52-34 Holiday Bowl rout of Arizona State. For the season, Mack Brown’s troops are averaging 49.5 points and 482 total yards per game, while giving up 10.8 points and 303.2 yards per outing.
Texas junior quarterback Colt McCoy is playing out of his mind, completing 80 percent of his passes for 1,018 yards with a 14-1 TD-to-INT ratio. He faces a defense today that’s allowing just 163 passing yards per game.
Colorado followed up a 17-14 overtime upset win over then-No. 21 West Virginia with last week’s 39-21 loss at Florida State, falling way short as a 5½-point road underdog. The Buffaloes got outgained 368-278, including 249-124 on the ground, in suffering their first defeat of the season.
These teams last met in the 2005 Big 12 Championship game, and Texas pummeled the Buffs 70-3 as a 25½-point favorite. The Longhorns also routed Colorado 42-17 as a 16-point home favorite in the 2005 regular season, and they’re on a 6-0 ATS tear in this rivalry, winning four of the last five meetings by the combined score of 184-34.
Texas has cashed in five straight games overall dating to last year and is also 6-1 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning record. Conversely, Colorado is mired in pointspread funks of 6-13 in Big 12 play and 1-4 against winning teams.
The over is 7-2 in Texas’ last nine on the highway, 9-4 in its last 13 on grass, 5-2 in Colorado’s last seven overall, 8-3 in Colorado’s last 11 conference contests and 3-1 in the last four series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER



Florida State (3-1, 1-1 ATS) at Miami (Fla.) (2-2, 1-2 ATS)
One of the sport’s most heated rivalries gets renewed at Dolphin Stadium in South Beach, as the Hurricanes host Miami in an annual ACC battle.
Miami squandered a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead in last week’s conference opener against North Carolina, falling 28-24 as a 7½-point home chalk. The Canes outrushed the Tar Heels by 100 yards (135-35), but allowed a second-string quarterback to pass for 264 yards and two touchdowns, including the clincher with 46 seconds to play.
The Seminoles rebounded from an ugly 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest with a dominating 39-21 non-conference home win over Colorado, easily covering as a 5½-point favorite. After committing seven turnovers in the loss to Wake, Florida State coughed the ball up twice against Colorado, but also forced two miscues, one of which led to a safety.
After a series of boring low-scoring affairs against each other, the Canes and Seminoles got the offenses cranked up last year in a 37-29 shootout, with Miami prevailing as a 5½-point road underdog. Not including one pick-em contest, the underdog has covered in six consecutive head-to-head battles, including five straight outright upsets.
Going back to 2000, Miami is on a 7-2 SU roll against Florida State and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 battles. Finally, the last seven clashes have been decided by an average of 4.4 points per game.
Florida State is on an 8-3 ATS roll as an underdog since 2005, but Bobby Bowden’s squad is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 ACC games, 1-5 ATS in its last six after an outright win and 1-5 ATS in its last six in October. Meanwhile, Miami is 8-19 ATS as a favorite going back to 2005 and 0-5 ATS in ACC home games under coach Randy Shannon. Additionally, the Hurricanes are on pointspread nosedives of 9-20-1 overall, 0-5 at home, 3-7 on grass, 1-4 in the ACC and 1-4 in October.
These teams had stayed under the total in six straight meetings before last year’s clash, and the under is 5-0-1 in the last six tussles in Miami. The under is also on streaks of 41-20 for the Hurricanes overall, 24-8 for the Hurricanes at home, 13-6 for the Hurricanes in conference action and 7-3 for the ‘Noles following a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI, FLA. and UNDER



Kentucky (4-0, 2-1 ATS) at (2) Alabama (5-0, 4-1 ATS)
Fresh off a dominating victory over third-ranked Georgia, Alabama will try to avoid the dreaded letdown when it returns home to Tuscaloosa for an SEC battle against unbeaten Kentucky.
The Crimson Tide went to Georgia as a 6½-point road underdog but quickly proved the oddsmakers were way off, jumping out to a 31-0 halftime lead and cruising to a 41-30 victory. Although Alabama had just a 10-yard edge in total offense (334-324), it forced two turnovers, got efficient play from QB John Parker Wilson (13-for-16, 205 yards, 1 TD, no INT) and was never threatened in the game. Nick Saban’s defense is yielding just 13.4 points and 259.4 yards per outing this season.
Kentucky was barely tested during its non-conference campaign, outscoring its four opponents by the combined tally of 126-22, including last weekend’s 41-3 rout of Western Kentucky as a 21-point favorite. The Wildcats have held three opponents – Western Kentucky, Norfolk State and Louisville – to 3, 3 and 2 points, respectively, and they’re giving up an average of just 227.5 ypg.
This is the first meeting between these teams since 2004, when Alabama rolled to a 45-17 road win as a 4½-point chalk. That snapped a 4-0 run (3-1 ATS) by the home team in this rivalry. The Tide are 33-2-1 SU all-time against the ‘Cats, including 19-0-1 at home.
The Wildcats, who have won five straight games dating to last year’s bowl victory over Florida State, are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 as a double-digit underdog, but 1-4 ATS in it their last five SEC contests and 2-5 ATS in their last seven in October.
Alabama has followed up an 11-22-3 ATS slide by going 5-1 ATS in its last six. However, the Tide are just 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, including 3-15 ATS as a home favorite since 2005.
Kentucky is on under runs of 6-2 overall (3-0 this year) and 5-2 on the road, but Alabama has over streaks of 3-0 overall, 7-3 at home, 7-2 in SEC play, 8-1 following a SU win
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE



(14) Ohio State (4-1, 0-4 ATS) at (18) Wisconsin (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
Seven days after a shocking loss at Michigan, things don’t get much easier for Wisconsin when it welcomes electrifying freshman QB Terrelle Pryor and Ohio State to Camp Randall Stadium for a Big Ten tussle.
The Badgers were seemingly in control with a 19-0 lead at Ann Arbor last week, then completely came unglued in the final two quarters, losing 27-25 as a 5½-point road favorite. Wisconsin, which had a 384-270 edge in total offense, scored a touchdown with 13 seconds to left, but a game-tying two-point conversion was nullified by a penalty, and the second attempt failed.
Ohio State opened Big Ten play with last week’s 34-21 victory over Minnesota, but the Buckeyes gave up a touchdown with a little more than a minute to play to blow the cover as a 20-point home favorite. A week after throwing for four touchdowns in his first collegiate start, Pryor accounted for three scores in the win over Minnesota (one passing, two rushing) and finished 8-for-13 for 70 yards in the air and had 97 rushing yards on just eight carries (12.1 yards per rush).
The Buckeyes hammered Wisconsin 38-17 as a 16-point home favorite last year, snapping the Badgers’ two-game SU and four-game ATS winning streaks in this rivalry. Prior to OSU’s rout last year, the underdog had cashed in seven straight series meetings.
Despite failing to cover a spread all season, the Buckeyes are still on ATS hot streaks of 11-3 as a road favorite, 22-8 in conference action, 9-2 in Big Ten road games and 6-1 in October. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is 6-2 ATS as a home pup since 1998, including 2-0 ATS since 2005, and 4-1 ATS in its last five overall at Camp Randall. However, the Badgers have now failed to cash in seven of their last nine Big Ten battles.
The over is 6-2 in Wisconsin’s last eight overall, 4-0 in its last four in league play and 4-1 in Ohio State’s last five Big Ten games. However, the last four head-to-head clashes at Camp Randall have stayed under the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE



(23) Oregon (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at (9) USC (2-1 SU and ATS)
Having had nine days to digest its shocking loss at Oregon State, USC returns to the field hoping to re-establish its dominance – and avenge a loss – when it hosts Pac-10 rival Oregon at the L.A. Coliseum.
The Trojans went to Corvalis, Ore., as a 25-point favorite and the top-ranked team in the nation last Thursday, but they came out flat, falling behind 21-0 at halftime. They were unable to recover in a 27-21 loss, snapping a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) that dated to last year’s loss at Oregon. Against the Beavers, USC committed two turnovers, forced none and got manhandled at the line of scrimmage, giving up 176 rushing yards while totaling just 86 yards on the ground.
Oregon bounced back from a surprising 37-32 home loss to Boise State with last Saturday’s 63-14 destruction of Washington State as a 21½-point road chalk, improving to 2-0 in Pac-10 play. The Ducks rolled up 507 total yards, gave up only 271 and forced four turnovers while committing none. Mike Bellotti’s team has lost its top two quarterbacks this season, but sophomore Jeremiah Masoli (9-for-16, 161 yards, 2 TDs) performed well last week.
Oregon’s offense has been unstoppable this year, putting up 47.4 points and 531.6 yards per game (308.6 rushing ypg), while the Trojans are averaging 36 points and 405.3 total yards (155 rushing). However, USC has the edge on defense (12.3 points, 245.7 yards per game) over Oregon (22.2 points, 330.2 yards per game).
The Ducks snapped a three-game losing skid against USC with last year’s 24-17 victory as a three-point home favorite. The favorite has covered in each of the last four meetings dating to 2002 after the ‘dog went 5-1 ATS in the previous six.
USC is on a 4-2 ATS roll following a SU regular-season defeat. The Trojans are on further pointspread streaks of 28-12 at home (1-0 this year), 16-8 ATS as a home chalk in league play, 5-1 against winning teams and 6-1 on grass. However, they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven October affairs and now 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as a double-digit chalk against Pac-10 rivals.
Oregon has cashed in four of its last five in October and is 25-13 ATS in its last 38 as an underdog dating to 1998 and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 after a victory of more than 20 points.
The under is 5-1 in the last six series meetings between these teams. Furthermore, USC is on under streaks of 20-8 overall, 7-1 at home, 21-7 in the Pac-10, 16-5 on grass and 4-0 in October. Finally, Oregon’s under runs include 4-1 on grass and 5-2 in conference, but the over is 5-1-1 in the Ducks’ last seven overall and 9-4-2 in their last 15 on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON and UNDER
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS



N.L. DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS

Philadelphia (2-0) at Milwaukee (0-2)
On the brink of their first trip to the National League Championship Series since 1993, the Phillies hand the ball to ageless Jamie Moyer (16-7, 3.71 ERA) as this best-of-5 series shifts to Miller Park. Meanwhile, the Brewers turn to the inconsistent Dave Bush (9-10, 4.18) to save their season.
Philadelphia on Thursday did what no other National League team was able to do this year, roughing up Brewers ace CC Sabathia en route to a 5-2 home victory. Shane Victorino’s grand slam sparked a five-run second inning against Sabathia, who lasted just 4 2/3 innings, his shortest stint since joining the Brewers in mid-July.
The Phillies, who got swept in last year’s divisional round, are on runs of 15-3 overall run, 5-1 on the road, 8-0 against the N.L. Central, 5-0 on Saturdays, 11-1 following a day off and 20-7 against right-handed starters. Additionally, since losing the season’s first meeting in Milwaukee, Philly has now won seven straight games against the Brewers. Those seven wins have come by the combined tally of 37-14, and the Phillies have held Milwaukee to three runs or fewer in each victory.
Milwaukee, which is back in the playoffs for the first time since the 1982 World Series, is 3-13 in its last 16 against winning teams and has lost nine straight contests to N.L. East foes. On the bright side, the Brewers went 49-32 at home this year (6-1 in the last seven), and they’re on positive runs of 11-4 on Saturdays and 8-2 when hosting Philadelphia at Miller Park.
Moyer won his final six decisions in the regular season, and Philadelphia went 7-0 in his last seven starts overall and 6-0 in his last six on the road. The 45-year-old lefty allowed one run on six hits in six innings in each of his final two outings – a 4-3 home win over the Nationals and 5-2 road victory at Florida.
Moyer went 10-3 with a 2.92 ERA in 17 starts on the highway this season, with the Phillies winning 13 of those contests. He’s also 9-5 with a 3.63 ERA in 22 career appearances (17 starts) against the Brewers, including 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA in two games this season (both Philly wins). Finally, Moyer is 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA in five playoff stats, including a no-decision in the Phillies’ season-ending 2-1 loss at Colorado in Game 3 of last year’s NLDS.
Bush pitched three innings of scoreless relief in last Saturday’s 7-3 home loss to the Cubs, and Milwaukee was just 1-4 in his last five starts. He gave up three earned runs or fewer in nine of his 10 starts after Aug. 1, including each of his last four. Bush, who is pitching in the postseason for the first time, went 6-4 with a 3.50 ERA in 17 games (16 starts) at Miller Park. Also, he has a 5.88 ERA in six career starts against the Phillies, failing to get a decision in any of those contests, with Milwaukee going 4-2 (1-1 this year).
The under is 3-0 in the last three meetings between these teams and is on further runs of 6-1 for the Brewers overall, 4-1 for the Brewers at home, 39-17-4 for the Brewers against the N.L. East, 7-3 for the Phillies overall, 4-1 for the Phillies on the road, 4-1 for the Phillies in the playoffs, 15-6 in Moyer’s last 21 starts overall and 16-5 in his last 21 outings on the road. However, with Bush on the mound, Milwaukee has over steaks of 5-0 overall, 16-5-1 at home and 12-5-1 against the N.L. East, and all six of his starts against the Phillies have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER



Chicago Cubs (0-2) at L.A. Dodgers (2-0)
Needing a victory to keep their season alive, the scuffling Cubs hand the ball to Rich Harden (5-1, 1.77) in Game 3 of a best-of-5 divisional series at Dodger Stadium, while Los Angeles will counter with rookie Hiroki Kuroda (9-10, 3.73).
The Dodgers stunned the Cubs at Wrigley Field in Games 1 and 2, outscoring Chicago 17-5 after scoring only three runs in three previous games this year at the old yard. Los Angeles, which hasn’t won a postseason series since capturing the 1988 World Series, is on hot streaks of 21-8 overall, 24-9 at home, 7-0 against winning teams, 13-6 against right-handed starters, 5-0 on Saturdays and 4-0 after an off day. However, they’re still just 3-12 in their last 15 postseason outings dating to 1993.
Chicago has now dropped eight straight playoff games. On the positive side, the Cubs are on runs of 21-8 on the highway, 39-20 against right-handed starters, 22-11 against the N.L. West, 4-1 on Saturdays and 8-1 behind Harden this year.
Los Angeles is now on a 4-1 roll against Chicago, but the teams split four-regular season meetings at Dodger Stadium.
Harden was brilliant in his 12 starts with the Cubs after being traded from Oakland in July, giving up two earned runs or fewer in 11 of those 12 contests, including allowing one or no runs nine times. In his final start on Sept. 25 at the Mets, he allowed three runs (two earned) on two hits and five walks, failing to get a decision in his team’s 7-6 loss.
Including his time with the A’s, Harden was 10-2 with a 2.07 ERA this year, including 5-2 with a 2.50 ERA on the road. Tonight marks his first career start against the Dodgers, and in his only playoff outing back in the 2006 A.L. Championship Series, Harden surrendered three runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 3-0 loss to the Tigers.
Kuroda, whom the Dodgers acquired from Japan in the offseason, was sharp in his final regular-season start, giving up two hits in five scoreless innings at the Giants on Sunday. He didn’t register a decision, as Los Angeles lost 3-1, ending a 4-0 run with Kuroda on the hill.
The right-handed Kuroda was 6-2 with a 3.68 ERA in 14 home starts this season, including a complete-game 3-0 shutout of the Cubs on June 6, as he scattered four hits, walked none and struck out 11. He also pitched at Wrigley Field 10 days earlier, giving up two runs (one earned) on seven hits in 6 1/3 innings, losing 3-1.
The first two games of this series topped the total, and the over is on runs of 7-2 for Chicago overall, 5-2 for Chicago on the road, 9-3 for Chicago in the playoffs, 6-2 for the Dodgers overall, 4-1 for the Dodgers at home, 4-1 for the Dodgers in postseason play, 4-1-1 with Kuroda on the hill overall and 5-2 when Kuroda works in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and OVER
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

POWER INDEX

1. Florida -24½ over Arkansas* (Saturday)
We have enjoyed going against the Razorbacks for the last 2 weeks and hope to win again at their expense. The Hogs have played 4 awful games so far and look to be outclassed again. The spread has grown to 24½ but we just don't see how Arkansas can stay in this game for long with their pathetic offense and rollover defense. Tebow leads the charge to rebound from last week's devastating loss to Ole Miss.

2. Notre Dame* -6½ over Stanford (Saturday)
The rebuilding job continues at Notre Dame. QB Clausen is developing with each outing. The Irish have now won 3 straight at home and we expect another solid performance against a mediocre Pac-10 team. Clausen had a solid game last week against Purdue and should find the Cardinal pass defense as exploitable as they were last week against pass-happy Washington.

3. Texas Tech -7½ over Kansas State* (Saturday)
Texas Tech has been unstoppable facing weak competition. Kansas State has three wins, all against poor opponents. Our bet is on the Red Raiders here, as K-State was pushed to the limit last week by UL-Lafayette, who gashed the Wildcat defense for 335 rushing yards. There is no doubt that Tech QB Harrell will be able to move the team and score plenty of points. We have our doubts that Kansas State can stay close for 4 quarters.

4. Florida State/Miami FL* UNDER 42 (Saturday)
Two tough defensive units should be able to shut down the opposing running games and neither team is particularly scary though the air.

5. Oregon +16½ over Southern Cal* (Saturday Night)
USC looks to rebound from last week's surprising loss to Oregon State on the road. The Trojans fell behind by 21 points and rallied to make a game of it late. The ability of the Beavers to run the ball on the Trojan defense was a surprise. Oregon features a very explosive offense and their ground game is as good as anyone's. We feel the Ducks can make a game of it and stay within 16½.

6. Ohio State -2 over Wisconsin* (Saturday Night)
Ohio State is on the comeback trail, following that awful loss earlier to USC. The Buckeye defense is solid and RB Wells is healthy again. QB Pryor is getting a little better each time out. We believe the edge here goes to the Buckeyes, as Wisconsin lost to Michigan last week in a 4 turnover debacle. The OSU defense should pressure Wisconsin into a few mistakes, too.

7. Missouri/Nebraska* UNDER 69 (Saturday Night)
The number on this game is a remarkably high 69. While Missouri is very explosive, the Huskers are not. Nebraska will need to employ a little ball possession to stay in the game. Therefore, we are expecting a few long Husker drives to consume some clock and make 69 difficult to reach. Missouri is not stellar on defense, but Nebraska should score in long, slow drives.
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

VEGAS EXPERTS

Oklahoma at Baylor
Saturday, October 4th, 12:30 PM ET

This is a classic sandwich spot for the Sooners. They come off a big revenge win against TCU (Horned Frogs handed OU 1 of 2 home losses in Stoops' era) and have the Red River Shootout vs. Texas on deck. They are being asked to lay nearly four touchdowns on the road here against a much-improved team coming off a bye. Oklahoma is 5-12 ATS the week prior to playing Texas, so the look ahead factor does seem to come into play.

Play on: Baylor

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Gold Medal Club

321 Iowa @ 322 Michigan State 12:05 pm

PLAY ON 322 MICHIGAN STATE -6.5

Lesson number one, learn when your young, things aren't always as they appear. Okay so Iowa owns the 20th ranked defense and Michigan State is 63rd. But a closer look reveals that Iowa has not had a tough schedule, and now they go on the road facing an offensive powerhouse, there ranking will change after this game.
We back the Spartans knowing they are 6-1 ats after 2 consecutive wins during the last 3 years, and are in revenge mode for last years loss to Iowa.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Armvin Sports

10/4/2008
Arizona State 9.5

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Saturday TCU

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Tom Freese

Game: Ohio State University at Wisconsin
Oct 4 2008 8:00PM

Prediction: Wisconsin

Reason: Wisconsin is 13-3-1 ATS after allowing less than 275 yards in their last game and they are 20-8-1 ATS after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their last game. The Underdog in this series is 7-1 ATS the last 8 meetings. Ohio St is 0-4 ATS their last 4 games vs. winning teams and they are 0-5 ATS off a Straight Up win. The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their last game. PLAY ON WISCONSIN +

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Jimmy The Moose

Game: Penn State at Purdue
Oct 4 2008 12:00PM

Prediction: Penn State

Reason: Penn State is off to a 5-0 SU start and 3-1 ATS. They have been very good offensivley averaging 49.8 PPG while the D has bee n solid allowing an average of 12.8 PPG. Purdue is 2-2 SU and 1-2 ATS. The Boilermakers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games. In their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning record Purdue is 8-20 ATS. Purdue is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games played in October. The Nittany Lions are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Play on Penn State

[Can'tPickaWinner]

JEFF BENTON

If you haven’t heard it yet, you will hear that Missouri hasn’t won in Lincoln in 30 years. True. But the Tigers have never taken a team THIS good to Husker-ville, and with two weeks to prepare for this Big 12 opener, there’s little doubt that Mizzou will finally get it done at Nebraska tonight. And the reason is Chase Daniel and the incredible video game-like offense, which is producing 53.8 points and almost 600 yards per game. In fact, the 42 points the Tigers scored against Buffalo two weeks ago was their fewest of the season.
Daniel has been about as close to perfect as you could possibly be, completing an astounding 77.1 percent of his passes for 353 yards per game with 12 TDs and just one pick. But the Heisman Trophy frontrunner isn’t doing it all alone, as the Tigers are averaging 191 rushing yards per game (5.8 yards per carry).
What about Nebraska, you ask? Well, the Cornhuskers finally stepped up in class last week, hosting Virginia Tech at home … and they lost 35-30 as a seven-point favorite. Well, if Va-Tech’s pedestrian offense can put up 377 yards and 35 points on the Huskers’ defense, how much of a field day are Daniel and the Tigers going to have?
Throw in some favorable trends for Missouri – the Tigers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 overall, including 7-1 ATS on the road, while Nebraska is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 overall (3-7 ATS at home) – and I’ll confidently lay the big price, as Missouri is much further along right now than the Huskers.
(Based on a 1♦ to 10♦ rating system)

8♦ MISSOURI

[Can'tPickaWinner]

The Vegas Steam Line

Take Tennessee -16 over Northern Illinois

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Action Sports Services

10/4/2008
Best Bet! USC -16

[Can'tPickaWinner]

The Edge

3* Texas Tech
3* Arizona State
3* Toledo

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Vegas Steam

New Mexico
Iowa

[Can'tPickaWinner]

RED ZONE

COMPS
air force
north carolina

[Can'tPickaWinner]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Sat (CFB) Purdue
Sat (CFB) Notre Dame
Sat (CFB) Miami-Fla
Sat (CFB) Wisconsin

[Can'tPickaWinner]

John Ryan

Maryland vs. Virginia (NCAAF)
Oct 4, 2008 12:00 PM EDT

Play: Virginia

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on University Of Virginia – AiS shows a 72% probability that UVA will lose this game by 13 or fewer points when facing Maryland this Saturday. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-10 ATS for 79% since 2002. Play on a home team with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season and after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Turnovers are very difficult to predict, but they do have predictable trends that can help assess a wager opportunity. UVA has certainly had it’s share of misfortune and not all turnovers are caused by mistakes. Most recently, Oregon State threw a pass into the end zone that truly should have been picked off, but it deflected of the defenders hands and into the waiting hands of the WR for a TD. I had Oregon State as a 5* Monster so I viewed it as a huge break. (I also had 7* Under in that same game, and also had a 10* winner on Mississippi in the huge upset over Florida. Point is that when I get a dog from my AiS it sometimes can be one that makes headline news.) Over the course of the season, UVA will more than likely have a poor turnover mark, but they are at any extreme level based on the AiS. The currently inflated line also reflects UVA’s weak playing performance and also Maryland’s strong 4-1 start. Reflecting this phenomenon is that UVA is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992. Take UVA to cover and make this game very close.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

ANTHONY CAPONE

TULSA AS YOUR FREE PICK SELECTION FOR SATURDAY

* Note that free plays now stand at 15-4

[Can'tPickaWinner]

A good friend of the forum wanted you to have this:

Analyst: Eddie Roman

First Ever Waive the Rating Game of my Career

Ohio State Buckeyes -1.5 @ Wisconsin

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Same friend:

NSA Saturday

20* USC -16
10* Florida -24.5
10* Virginia Tech -28
10* Arizona St +9
10* Nebraska +10.5
10* Fresno St -21
10* Dodgers +125

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Insider Sports Report

Auburn -4 over Vanderbilt (NCAAF)

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Nathan Armstrong
Highprofitsports

5* South Carolina
3* Nc State
3* Unlv
3* Rice/tulsa Under 80
3* Fresno State
2* Navy
2* Texas Tech/kansas State Under 65.5
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[ymmit2nd]

POINT TRAIN

6* Minnesota -7
4* Ohio State -1
3* Kansas State +7

[ymmit2nd]

GOLDEN CONTENDER SATURDAY SYSTEM CLUB PLAY COURTESY OF SELECTIVESPORTSSYSTEMS.COM.-On Saturday the system club play is the UNLV RUNNIN REBELS.Game 339 at 2 pm eastern.These system club plays moved to 4-0 on the year in college football, and ive cashed 10 of my last 12, including last weeks 6 unit bomb on southflorida over nc.st. lets see if wen can go to 5-0 here.The rebels are the beneficiaries of a very good system that goes against the Colorado ST. rams here. The system says to play against hame favorites of less than 5 points if there off a road dog loss and ats loss and allowed 40 or more, if there opponent is off a home loss.the record of this system since 1980 is 7-30 ats and plays against colorado st here.Unlv in there last road game shocked a better azona st team, so them getting only a deuce doesnt scare me.This system cashed this year already when memphins coverd as a small dog against marshall, so ill go right back to it here on saturday.For some big bombs to unload on consider a favorite in an angle thats 4-40 su, in a game where our team will win the game su, or another solid 21-3 system that dates to 1980,also available is a tremendous big favorite blowout play where the game wont even be close.Its a power packed card that all starts at 2 eastern.Jump on and make some cash.Ill come back tomorrow with an nfl system club play-be sure to check out the free contest next to the service play section bol on saturday gc

[ymmit2nd]

Pointwise Phone Plays

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2*
Minnesota
Bowling Green
Arizona St

[ymmit2nd]

Jim Feist Mismatch GOM



Fresno St

[ymmit2nd]

ASA


10/4/2008
2:30:00 PM -2,MIAMI (FL) HURRICANES
-vs-Florida State Seminoles
ASA 4-Star @ Miami Fl (-2) over Florida State - 2:30 pm CST
Take Miami minus the points.


10/4/2008
6:00:00 PM OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (-25)
over Texas A&M Aggies
ASA 5-Star @ Oklahoma State –25 vs. Texas A&M - 6:00 pm CST

This one gets really ugly!
10/4/2008


6:30:00 PM ARIZONA WILDCATS (-21)
over Washington Huskies
ASA 3-Star @ Arizona –22 over Washington - 6:30 pm CST

Zona head coach Mike Stoops has reminded his team of the letdown they had earlier this year @ New Mexico and they are squarely focused on Washington. Big time win here for Arizona.


10/4/2008
7:00:00 PM -2,OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
-vs-Wisconsin Badgers
ASA 3-Star Ohio State (-2) @ Wisconsin - 7:00 pm CST Ohio State –2 over Wisconsin We have to take the Buckeyes at this low number.

[ymmit2nd]

Brandon Lang

SATURDAY

20 Dime Navy

5 Dime Florida St
5 Dime Vanderbilt

FREE - Nebraska

[What's the good word?]

Trying to get this from a friend....but, no luck getting in touch with him yet. Will post if I get it.

[thekeyman]

50 CENT,your posting all doubles and wasteing pages,why not look before you post

[beachboy]

Northcoast Complimentary College Play of the Week...
SMU (+14) over UCF

TV Play of the Day...
Ohio State (-1) over Wisconsin

[ymmit2nd]

Triple Threat Sports Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, October 04, 2008
$20.00 Guaranteed: We are hitting better than 63% on our College Totals Plays of the Week since 2005 and delivered an easy winner (Michigan State/Indiana OVER) in this space for all clients last week. This is our TOTALS PLAY OF THE WEEK and comes in an early game so you can start your day off right with our TOTALS PLAY OF THE WEEK...Join Us! 10/4/2008

2* Indiana/Minnesota OVER [Noon]

The Indiana defense has allowed 42 points in back to back weeks, and Minnesota has scored 31, 35, and 37 points at home this season. We expect the Gophers to be able to move the ball and dent the dish. As for the IU offense, this is the weakest defense they have faced since Murray State, and they hung 45 on them, and last week managed 29 against Michigan State. They should do their part to keep the scoreboard operator busy. The last three series meetings have seen 60, 89, and 63 points, and the average of the last seven series meetings is 67ppg.

Thanks, and Good Luck!