Service Plays Sunday 10/5/08

[Can'tPickaWinner]

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[Can'tPickaWinner]

SCOTT FERRALL

NFL Week Five Free Plays

BALTIMORE +3 from Tennessee--Ravens show the Titans who's boss. Tenn isn't going to the Super Bowl like everyone is thinking. I like Flacco and that Baltimore defense, particularly at home

CAROLINA -9.5 to Kansas City--The Panthers aren't going to let Larry Johnson go off for 198 like he did last week against Denver in KC. The Chiefs still blow and will lay down in Charlotte--Steve Smith has a big game in this one

PHILLY -5.5 to Washington--The Eagles bounce back from the loss at Soldier Field and work over the Skins, who everyone will be pouncing on after they beat Dallas in Big D. They aren't winning two straight on the road. The Eagles D is the difference in this game

DENVER -3 to Tampa--The Bucs have been pretty tough, but not in the thin air at Mile High. Cutler has a field day with Marshall and Royal

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Dr. Bob
BALTIMORE 17 Tennessee (-2.5) 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll still lean with Baltimore, however, based on a 122-54-8 ATS statistical indicator and a 74-32-3 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests the Ravens are the type of team that should cover as a home underdog.


Atlanta 0 GREEN BAY (pick) 0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I have a possible Best Bet on this game, but there is currently no line. Check back on Friday or Saturday (after the line goes up) for that analysis.


Chicago (-3.5) 26 DETROIT 19
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
My ratings favor Chicago by 9 ½ points in this game and the line value favoring Chicago is more significant than the favorable situation applying to Detroit.


CAROLINA (-9.5) 27 Kansas City 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll lean with Carolina based on the line value even though the technical analysis slightly favors Kansas City.


HOUSTON 24 Indianapolis (-3.0) 23
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll lean with the Texans plus the points.


San Diego (-6.5) 27 MIAMI 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
This game is tough to call with the line value favoring San Diego and the technical analysis favoring Miami.


PHILADELPHIA (-6.0) 21 Washington 12
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll favor Philly to cover based on that situation despite the negative line value.


NY GIANTS (-7.0) 26 Seattle 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll lean with the Giants.


DENVER (-3.0) 27 Tampa Bay 26
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll lean with Tampa Bay plus the points.



New England (-3.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here



DALLAS (-17.0) 33 Cincinnati 13
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
The Cowboys may not be in a sympathetic mood for the winless Bengals after getting upset by the Redskins last week and my math model favors Dallas by 20 points in this game.


ARIZONA (-1.0) 23 Buffalo 19
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll lean with Arizona to hand the Bills their first loss.


JACKSONVILLE (-4.0) 20 Pittsburgh 17
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll lean slightly with Pittsburgh even though the technical analysis strongly favors Jacksonville.


NEW ORLEANS (-3.0) 27 Minnesota 23
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-06 - Stats Matchup
I’ll lean slightly with New Orleans.


Rotation #424 San Francisco (+3 1/2) 3-Stars at +3 (-115 odds or better) or more and 2-Stars from +3 (-120 or worse) to +1.

The math model is included this week and the math only officially applies to games in which both teams have played at least 4 games each. The chance of covering listed in the math refers to the chance based solely on the math and does not include any situational analysis. To read my opinion on each game you should consult my free analysis section on the site.

3 Star Selection
*** SAN FRANCISCO 23 New England (-3.5) 17
01:15 PM Pacific, 05-Oct-08
I’ll take San Francisco in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-115 odds or better) and for 2-Stars from +3 (-120 odds or worse) to +1.

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[Can'tPickaWinner]

WUNDERDOG

Game: Buffalo at Arizona (Sunday 10/05 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 44.5 -110
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We were on the OVER last week in the Cardinals game vs. the Jets and they exceeded the total - twice! One look at Arizona last week shows something of interest. They turned the ball over seven times meaning they had seven possessions interupted, but still manged 35 points! That is hard to ignore, especially playing at home. Kurt Warner is a savvy veteran, and I would expect he gets redemption here, and moves the offense as he has with less mistakes. The Bills have turned very offensive behind a developing Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch and WR Lee Evans. Arizona has a QB rating against their defense of 102.4, so look for the pass happy Bills to chew up yardage just like the Favre and the Jets did last week. The Cards, after putting up 350 yards or more in their previous game, have been an astounding 42-17 to the OVER in their next game. They are also 16-6 OVER as an underdog the past three seasons. This one should have plenty of scoring and again go OVER.

[ymmit2nd]

The Experts Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: I have isolated a Selection today that will beat the line by at least TWO TD'S! You can get our ULTIMATE EXPERTS NFL PLAY OF THE MONTH today for just $25 and you will be a winner or you will not be charged! WE ARE ON FIRE as we ar currently on a 34-15 RUN! ARE YOU?!? 10/4/2008

ULTIMATE EXPERTS NFL PLAY OF THE MONTH
426 Arizona -1 4:15 EST

[ymmit2nd]

The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: This will be the HAMMER'S LARGEST NFL FOOTBALL WAGER of the season. It's yours RIGHT HERE - RIGHT NOW guaranteed to bring home the GREEN BACKS or you don't pay! You can get the Hammers "Private Investors Club" NFL GAME OF THE YEAR right now for just $35 - GUARANTEED! The P.I.C. Selections go to the Hammers private members only and Exclusive to YouWinNow.com. 10/4/2008

"Private Investors Club" NFL GAME OF THE YEAR
430 Jacksonville -4 8:15 EST

[ymmit2nd]

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Jack Clayton is on an 11-4 run in the NFL. He steps up on Sunday with another winning day, including his top play here, a 5-Star Chalk Game of the Month! Get aboard the red-hot bandwagon and pay ONLY when it covers! 10/4/2008

5* Chargers at Dolphins: I'm not sold that the Dolphins have turned things around after one stunning blowout win at New England. This is still a young, rebuilding team with a lot of holes and inexperience. The Chargers were not impressed with the way they beat New England, with trick plays and overshifts on the offensive line. "Gimmicky," cornerback Quentin Jammer said. The Chargers have spent time each day this week preparing to face the Miami Dolphins and their highly successful version of the single-wing offense. The Dolphins call it the "Wildcat" offense, and they scored four touchdowns in six snaps against the Patriots. The key in this game is the Chargers versatile, wide open offense against a weak Miami 'D'. This offense is No. 8 in the NFL and scoring a ton of points through the air and the ground. The Chargers are 13-4 SU/ATS as a favorite under Norv Turner. Miami doesn't have strong wideouts and and QB Chad Pennington has just 2 TDs, one pick in 3 games. They won at New England with the ground game, but the Chargers have a speedy secondary and can focus all their defensive effort in stopping the run and blitzing, something they did a lot of in the second half last week at Oakland. The Dolphins are 1-7 SU/ATS their last 8 in Miami. Play the Chargers.

[ymmit2nd]

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$20.00 Guaranteed: There's a soft total that jumps off of Sunday's NFL card, when the oddsmakers overlooked, focusing too much on last season's stats. Get the inside take on this soft NFL total, and pay ONLY when it sails "over"! 10/4/2008

3* Chargers/Dolphins over: Both defenses are ranked in the bottom half of the NFL, with the Chargers at 28th. The defense gave up 26 points to Carolina and 39 at Denver. At least the offense is loaded, ranked 8th in the NFL, with a great offensive line, plus QB Philip Rivers has 10 TDs and 4 picks, alongside RBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. They toasted the Jets in a 48-29 rout. Miami has defensive deficiencies that can be exploited by an good offensive mind like Norv Turner. Miami's offense is much better this season, with a stronger offensive line, a capable, veteran QB in Chad Pennington, plus RB Ronnie Brown. The Dolphins are 17th in total defense with a very young unit. Look for a lot of scoring, play the Chargers/Dolphins over the total

[Can'tPickaWinner]

WILD BILL

Titans -2 1/2 (5 units)
Chiefs +9 1/2 (5 units)
Giants -7 (5 units)
Over 43 1/2 Seattle-Giants (5 units)
Patriots -3 (5 units)
Over 44 Bengals-Cowboys (5 units)
Steelers +3 1/2 (5 units)
Saints -3 (5 units)

[ymmit2nd]

Handicapper: The Prez
League: NFL
Event: Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys on 10/05/2008 at 1:15PM
Condition: Over
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion:
8* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati at Dallas

Cowboys score at least 35 points Sunday making this a Big Game OVER the TOTAL play.

8 UNIT Play on the OVER

[ymmit2nd]

Handicapper: Jimmy Sirody
League: NFL
Event: Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles on 10/05/2008 at 10:00AM
Condition: Under
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: Philadelphia and Washington have made it a habit of going under, turning the trick in 20 of the past 31 meetings. The trend that grabbed my attention is the one that reveals the Skins going under in 19 of 23 games on the road versus good defensive teams--allowing less than 285 yards per game since '92. The Eagles have slipped under in 12 of 15 as favorites of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 and in 24 of their last 31 at home in October.

[ymmit2nd]

Vernon Croy's **20 Unit NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK** (76% Overall this NFL Season)
Ungraded
Handicapper: Vernon Croy
League: NFL
Event: New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers on 10/05/2008 at 1:15PM
Condition: Under
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: 20 Units, Take the Under, This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and both of these teams are solid defensively. New England's defense has allowed just 19.3 ppg this season and 10 points in their only road game while the 49ers defense has allowed just 262.5 ypg at home this season and 18 ppg. The O/U is 1-5 for the 49ers in their last 6 games as a home dog of 3 points or less and the Patriots offense has struggled without Tom Brady this season averaging just 16.3 ppg. The O/U is 1-5 for the 49ers in their last 6 home games and their offense will not be able to get much done against the Patriots veteran defense. The O/U is 5-11 for the Patriots in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less and I look for an offensive struggle by both of these teams Sunday afternoon. Take the Under as my NFL Total of the Week and make sure you get on my NFL Smash of the Year which I have winning hands down Sunday as my 76% season run continues.

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 10/05/08 - 4:05 PMStephen Nover | NFL Total
double-dime bet422 DEN / 421 TAM Over 48.0 BetUS
Analysis:
Buccaneers-Broncos Over 48

Analysis: The Denver Broncos have gone 'over' in all four of their matchups this season. It's not a fluke. The Broncos can't stop anybody, allowing an average of 34.3 points in their last three games, while averaging nearly 34 points.

The Broncos have one of the worst defensive fronts in the NFL. Their linebackers are below average, too. In addition, cornerback Dre Bly has slowed up considerably. Tampa Bay can attack this. The Buccaneers don't have great skill position players, but they have a very sharp offensive-minded coach in Jon Gruden. He'll have veteran Brian Griese probe Denver's many weak spots. Earnest Graham is an underrated running back and veteran Warrick Dunn can be effective, too, versus this defense. The Buccaneers have gone 'over' in eight of their last 10 games.

Tampa Bay's defense is good, but small. It's not a dominant unit. Jay Cutler certainly can pass on the Buccaneers. Brandon Marshall may be the best wide receiver in the AFC right now. Denver has gone 'over' in 14 of its past 17 home games. The Broncos also have gone 'over' 81 percent of the time during their last 27 games on grass. The Broncos also are 11-1 to the 'over' following a loss.

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 10/05/08 - 8:15 PMJeff Bonds | NFL Side
double-dime bet430 JAC -4.0 (-110) BetUS vs 429 PIT
Analysis:
Jacksonville Jaguars -4 at Bookmaker.com



This game is an absolute gift at this price - considering that Jacksonville has been pretty much the only NFL team to enjoy success against Pittsburgh over the past 10 years.



It's even more of a gift considering that Pittsburgh is coming off TWO highly physical games in back-to-back weeks (Philadelphia/Baltimore)....so physical - that both of its top running backs are banged up (one for the year).



This means Ben Roethlisberger is going to have to throw behind an offensive line that - to put it lightly - doesn't have a prayer this Sunday with the recent injury to guard Kendall Simmons.



When Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has to throw the ball more than 20 times a game - the Steelers are a terrible 1-7 ATS in the last eight situations.



Jacksonville picks up a BIG VICTORY to keep them from going under .500 (a huge factor in the NFL) and moves the Pittsburgh Steelers to 0-15 ATS in their last 15 road defeats. They've failed to cover the previous 14 by more than 11 points!

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet414 PHI -6.0 (-110) BetUS vs 413 WAS
Analysis: **2 UNIT PLAY** Analysis to come

Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet410 MIA 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 409 SDC
Analysis:
**2 UNIT PLAY** This line is at +7 at Bodog so I would advise you to get it while you can. Analysis to come.



Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet405 IND -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 406 HOU
Analysis: **2 UNIT PLAY** Analysis to come

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Pointwise Phone Plays

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Philadelphia
Minnesota
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Asa 5*
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Arizona Cards
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[ymmit2nd]

Al Demarco 25 Dimer
Denver Broncos -3

[melch]

<center><b>MEL'S NFL PICKS</b></center>

CHICAGO -3.5 over Detroit
For the first time this season I've seen a line I can't make sense of. Detroit's three games, all losses, have been against a soft schedule and they haven't lost by less than 13 points, and haven't come any closer than 13 of covering the spread. The Lions are off an early bye week which usually doesn't help teams that get off to a bad start. They did play competitive football in their one home game against Green Bay, but blew a fourth quarter lead. Detroit's defense has been a disaster, allowing 5.6 yards per rush and an opponent's QB rating of 118. Amazingly, those three games were all against first year starting QB's. If the Lions are going to routinely have their opponent's QB put up Hall Of Fame numbers they have zero chance. Take Chicago at whatever the going price is. I put an extra unit on this one.

CAROLINA -9.5 over Kansas City
KC had lost 12 games in a row until last week's home win over Denver. They've lost 6 straight road games, and their most recent road loss was 14-38 at Atlanta. Last week Carolina beat that same Atlanta team 24-9. The Chiefs passing game was weak last year, but has dropped to 31st in my numbers this year, and that's been against a soft schedule. Carolina has the best pass defense KC will have faced. The Panthers have played a tough schedule, put up solid passing numbers against four good pass defenses, and should do well against a KC pass defense that has been below average. KC has also been weak against the run, giving up 5.3 per attempt. Carolina has played well in their two home wins and should take this by double digits.

SAN FRANCISCO +3 over New England
New England had feasted on NFC teams, winning 12 straight prior to their Super Bowl loss. This week they make one of their rare West Coast appearances. Although the Pats are 2-1, their numbers don't look like the same team that won all 16 regular season games in '07. The Pats scored 34 points or more 11 times last year. This year they have scored, 17, 19 and 13, in games against, KC, NY Jets and Miami. Diminished offense should be expected with Tom Brady out for the season, but their defensive numbers have fallen off as well. Last year my numbers had them allowing an opponent's QB rating of 62; so far this year it's 92. In fact, the Patriots defensive unit may be showing signs of age. Like New England, SF has faced a below average schedule thus far. Their defense is solid again this year, and their offense has improved under Mike Martz. J.T. O'Sullivan has put up better numbers than Alex Smith ever did. He has taken too many sacks as a result of holding on to the ball too long, but he has made plays. SF has been a weak red zone team over the years, and this year's Niners have yet to show they can finish drives, but I'll take them as a work in progress here. I don't think the Pats will stop Frank Gore, and I don't think Belichick will hatch a scheme that will be effective against O'Sullivan. The fear factor is gone for the Patriots. Last year they scored more than 4 TD's from scrimmage per game; this year only 4 TD's in three games. The 49ers have the home field and the better QB, while NE has the experience. The Niners are averaging 7 points a game more than the Pats, and are the pick here. I'm giving out the play at +3, but this could move to +3.5 closer to game time.

[ymmit2nd]

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

NFL

5* BEST BET
New England over San Fran by 15
Roll the clock back to the first week of the season and our best guess is
the line on this game would have seen the Patriots installed as doubledigit
favorites. Today, with Tom Brady on the sidelines and the Niners a
.500 squad, two touchdowns has become a fi eld goal and suddenly this
game becomes attractive. With that we hurry off to our Bill Belichick
databank and fi nd numbers that support our contention. For openers,
Mr. Personality is 22-9 ATS in his NFL head coaching career on the road in
games off a loss, including 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine and 7-0 ATS as a
favorite of less than 7 points. To top it off he’s squared off against teams
from the NFC West Division 13 times and – you guessed it – he’s 13-0 ATS
in those games. Toss in Frisco’s 1-10 ATS mark as a dog off a non-division
game when facing an AFC opponent and you can see why we’re taking a
patriotic approach to this game.


4* BEST BET

Philadelphia over Washington by 16

Life has been pretty much black and white at home (2-0 SU and ATS) and
on the road (0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS) for the Eagles in 2008. More important,
from a handicapping perspective, the Green Birds have been perfect, 4-
0, In The Stats this season. They will apply that notion against a fat-andhappy
bunch of Hogs, fresh off last Sunday’s underdog win as doubledigit
dogs at Dallas. That fi ts like a Michael Jackson glove given the fact
the Skins are 0-5-1 ATS on the road off a Cowboy win while Philly is
10-3-1 ATS in division games off an ATS loss of 7 or more points behind
Andy Reid. Andy is also dandy in games off a SU favorite loss, going 17-8
SU and ATS. Just like Los Lobos, he sees a red door and wants to paint
it black

3* BEST BET

Detroit over Chicago by 7

It’s been said that the best sex a man can have is right after his favorite
football team wins a game. If that’s the case then the Motor City’s been
celibate this season. With Matt Millen no longer guarding the condoms
this may actually be a breakout game for the Lions. It happens much
more often than not to winless teams after a Bye Week. The fact of the
matter is 0-3 or worse division dogs playing with an extra wink are 7-7 SU
and 11-1-1 ATS. Additionally, the Lions are 7-5 SU and 12-0 ATS as division
home dogs against an opponent that allowed 20 or more points in its last
contest. With Lovie Smith 1-8-1 ATS in games off a win against a foe off
back-to-back losses, it’s time to break out the Trojans. The Lions and the
men from Motown are looking to make a score today!

[ymmit2nd]

STAT FOX / THE PLATINUM SHEET - NFL



10/5/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO at (410) MIAMI
San Diego was sleep walking for three quarters of Sunday’s game
versus Oakland but still managed to turn it on enough to cover a twoscore
pointspread. This team has the type of talent to “flip the switch”.
Hopefully this time around it won’t be a matter of waiting till the point
of urgency, since there’s no reason they shouldn’t walk away with a
comfortable win at Miami, especially since they were finally able to
get their primary weapons, Tomlinson and Gates, going on offense
late in Oakland. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers have been a team
that has been tough to stop once they get started: Turner is 8-1 ATS
(+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins as the coach of SAN
DIEGO. The average score was SAN DIEGO 26.2, OPPONENT 16.3
- (Rating = 1*). They are also a healthy 15-3 ATS in their L18 AFC
games. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are off their bye week and could
be still hung over from the upset of New
England. This game could be a painful
wake up call.
Play: San Diego -6.5




10/5/2008 (413) WASHINGTON at (414)
PHILADELPHIA
As strange as it sounds, Washington
will have wrapped up its road divisional
schedule for 2008 after this game. It is their
second straight contest on the road versus
a NFC East foe, following up the upset
of Dallas last Sunday. It figures to be too
much to ask for them to pull off yet another
stunner here against a Philadelphia team
that is too good on both sides of the ball
to slip to 2-3. In fact, the Eagles could
find themselves in trouble as far as the
playoffs are concerned if they were to
lose here. I just don’t see that happening.
They have been dominant defensively so
far, especially at home, where they have
yielded just 9 points and 346 yards in two
games. Meanwhile, Washington’s offense
has turned it around in its last three games
after the ugly start at New York. However, those offensive breakout
performances were against teams far less capable defensively than
Philly. With RB Brian Westbrook toughing it out this week, look for HC
Andy Reid’s team to bounce back with a convincing win.
Play: Philadelphia -4.5



10/5/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY at (422) DENVER
Prior to Denver’s loss at Kansas City, what do you suppose the line
in this game would have been? My guess is it would have been
something similar or higher than that of the Broncos-Saints game
two weeks ago, or about -5. Let’s face it, the Broncos put on a poor
performance at K.C. but that was a divisional road game with a
double-digit pointspread. There aren’t too many times where NFL
teams cover as chalk in that scenario. It’s simply a difficult situation.
Now, hosting an unfamiliar non-conference foe who hasn’t played in
your stadium since ’99, now that’s a different story. Tampa’s defense
has been bad in five straight road games dating back to last year.
Denver should enjoy another big day offensively. The Broncos are
also due for some luck in the turnover category: Play On - Favorites
vs. the money line (DENVER) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing
1 or less turnovers/game, after 4 consecutive games where they
forced 1 or less turnovers. (26-2 over the last 10 seasons.) (92.9%,
+23 units. Rating = 3*). This seems to be too much of an overreaction
to last week’s results. Take Denver.
Play: Denver -3



10/5/2008 (425) BUFFALO at (426) ARIZONA
Just as I believe that Denver was in a tough spot last week, so was
Arizona, having to play two straight games
across the country on the east coast.
Fatigue was certainly a factor for HC
Ken Whisenhunt’s team, especially on
defense. Fortunately, the Cardinals are
back at home this Sunday, where they are
7-2 under “the Whis”. They’ve also fared
well against the AFC in is tenure, going 5-1
ATS. Buffalo has put together a 4-0 start
but has yet to beat anyone who is sure to
be a playoff team in ’08. This is probably
the Bills’ toughest task to date, since
ARIZONA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when
playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.
> 75%) since 1992. Backed by this nice
StatFox Money Line Super Situation, take
the hosts: Play On - Home favorites vs. the
money line (ARIZONA) - good offensive
team - scoring 24 or more points/game,
after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more
last game. (30-2 over the last 10 seasons.)
(93.8%, +26.8 units. Rating = 4*)
Play: Arizona -2


10/6/2008 (431) MINNESOTA at (432) NEW ORLEANS
Although the results haven’t shown in the point totals that the Vikings
have given up in the first four games, Minnesota is still a very tough
team defensively. In this Monday night game at New Orleans, HC
Brad Childress’ team will enjoy a tremendous statistical edge on
defense. The most convincing numbers to look at are in yards per play
allowed. So far in four games, the Vikings are yielding just 4.9 YPP,
while the Saints have been gashed for 6.2 YPP. For those betting
Minnesota here, you also get the benefit of being a 3-point underdog,
possibly more with a hook if you can score it. The Vikings have faced
a killer schedule thus far and are probably better than the 1-3 record
indicates. Look for them to lean on Adrian Peterson extensively in this
game, giving them a great shot at the road upset.
Play: Minnesota +3







TOP NFL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (405) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (406) HOUSTON
Play Against - Favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by
40+ YPG, after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. (34-7 since 1983.) (82.9%, +26.3 units. Rating=4*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (2-0). L5 Seasons: (7-0). L10 Seasons: (15-2).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (425) BUFFALO vs. (426) ARIZONA
Play Over - Home teams against the total (ARIZONA) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an
average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. (31-7 over the last 10
seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating=3*).
The situation’s record this season is: (1-0). L3 Seasons: (10-2). L5 Seasons: (17-3). Since 1983: (61-44).


MULTIPLE TEAMS
Play On - Favorites (DALLAS, DENVER) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. (41-14 over
the last 10 seasons.) (74.5%, +25.6 units. Rating=3*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (5-1). L5 Seasons: (21-7). Since 1983: (78-45).



TOP NFL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
DENVER is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The
average score was DENVER 21.1, OPPONENT 31.5 - (Rating = 5*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
DENVER is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. The average score
was DENVER 22.6, OPPONENT 29.1 - (Rating = 5*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO vs. (410) MIAMI
Norv Turner is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. as the coach of SAN
DIEGO. The average score was Turner 27.1, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 4*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (423) NEW ENGLAND vs. (424) SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ENGLAND is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ENGLAND
37.1, OPPONENT 13.4 - (Rating = 4*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (429) PITTSBURGH vs. (430) JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. The average score was
JACKSONVILLE 30.7, OPPONENT 21.3 - (Rating = 4*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (415) CHICAGO vs. (416) DETROIT
Rod Marinelli is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of DETROIT. The
average score was Marinelli 18, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 3*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
Mike Shanahan is 98-66 OVER (+25.4 Units) as a favorite as the coach of DENVER. The average score was Shanahan
26, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 2*).


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (419) SEATTLE vs. (420) NY GIANTS
Mike Holmgren is 7-26 ATS (-21.6 Units) in October games as the coach of SEATTLE. The average score was Holmgren
20.1, OPPONENT 24 - (Rating = 4*).



Sunday, 10/05/2008 (425) BUFFALO vs. (426) ARIZONA
Dick Jauron is 37-16 UNDER (+19.4 Units) off 1 or more straight overs in all games he has coached since 1992. The
average score was Jauron 15.4, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 2*).




TOP NFL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (415) CHICAGO vs. (416) DETROIT
The UNDERDOG is 10-8 SU & 14-3 ATS in L19 games of CHICAGO-DETROIT series.


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (407) TENNESSEE vs. (408) BALTIMORE
The UNDERDOG is 8-6 SU & 12-2 ATS in TENNESSEE-BALTIMORE series since ‘97.


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (429) PITTSBURGH vs. (430) JACKSONVILLE
The HOME TEAM is 15-5 ATS in PITTSBURGH-JACKSONVILLE series since ‘95.


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (413) WASHINGTON vs. (414) PHILADELPHIA
The UNDER is 20-11 in the PHILADELPHIA-WASHINGTON series since 1992.


Sunday, 10/05/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO vs. (410) MIAMI
The UNDER is 7-0 in the L7 games between MIAMI & SAN DIEGO

[ymmit2nd]

NFL

THE GOLD SHEET - NFL


KEY RELEASES

NEW ENGLAND by 14 over San Francisco
ARIZONA by 17 over Buffalo
OVER THE TOTAL in the Tampa Bay-Denver game



OVER THE TOTAL DENVER 34 - Tampa Bay 26—Denver’s Achilles’
Heel apparently the same as LY, as Larry Johnson (198 YR last week) the latest
to puncture soft Broncos rush defense. Not sure T.B.’s chop-busting Earnest
Graham can’t do similar damage. But Bucs living very dangerously these days,
with Brian Griese (back at one of his old haunts) still prone to sloppy efforts (his
3 picks nearly undid T.B.’s dominance vs. banged-up Packers last week). Jay
Cutler & Co. (34 ppg last 5 at home) tough to outscore at Invesco Field, and
doubt Denver self-destructs with the TOs (4 of ‘em) that undermined attack at
Arrowhead. “Totals” alert—Broncos “over” 13 of last 15 at home, and 20 of last
25 overall since late “06; T.B. “over” 8-2 last 10.
(04-Denver -3 16-13...SR: Denver 4-2)



New England 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13—Bill Belichick’s defense led
the way in Super Bowl XXXVI at New Orleans as N.E. defeated Mike Martz’
Rams and their high-powered offense 20-17 on a last-second FG. Now,
Belichick’s defenders are under the microscope after giving up TD drives of 74,
79, 77, 79 and 62 yards vs. the Dolphins two weeks ago! Insiders report extrahard-
hitting, back-to-basics defensive practices in Foxborough since then,
while Tom Brady has reported early in the A.M. to help Matt Cassel with film
study after coaches tailored play book more to his liking. Pats just 2-12 vs. the
spread their last 14 overall, but J.T. O’Sullivan sacked six times in N.O. More
of the same this week.
(04-NEW ENGLAND -13' 21-7...SR: San Francisco 7-3)



ARIZONA 30 - Buffalo 13—After spending two the last two weeks on
the east coast, yielding a total of 8 TOs and 8 TDP, Arizona gets to turn the
tables on undefeated AFC East rep Buffalo. But even if hard-nosed WR
Anquan Boldin sidelined (check status), will come back with Cardinals now on
home turf for only the second time TY. Rookie power back Tim Hightower (via
Richmond) helping Edgerrin James in backfield, and QB Kurt Warner’s arm is
well-oiled, as evidenced by his 472 YP in six-giveaway performance by Arizona
last week. (04-BUFFALO -3' 38-14...SR: Buffalo 5-3)





Indianapolis 31 - HOUSTON 23—First home game for 0-3 Houston, thanks
to Hurricane Ike, which not only damaged the roof of Reliant Stadium, but also
the homes of several Texan players. Indy’s divisional home loss two weeks ago
vs. Jacksonville makes us lean to Colts for the victory, even with Indy’s depleted
defense (especially without SS Bob Sanders). Houston will be a hard-fighting,
homesick host. But Texans finding ways to lose, and New Orleans—albeit in a
more severe situation—never could shake the Katrina distractions in 2005.
Houston 16-7-1 “over” last 24.
(07-Indy 30-HOU. 24...I.18-16 I.29/92 H.17/40 I.20/29/0/270 H.27/33/2/214 I.0 H.0)
(07-INDY 38-Hou. 15...I.33-18 I.31/120 H.19/66 I.31/40/0/338 H.22/36/3/233 I.1 H.0)
(07-Indianapolis -6' 30-24, INDIANAPOLIS -7 38-15...SR: Indianapolis 11-1)



BALTIMORE 16 - Tennessee 15—Kerry Collins still has occasional
nightmares about the Baltimore defense, which intercepted him four times
when Collins was with the Giants for a 34-7 Raven victory in Super Bowl XXXV.
Collins might have a touch of déjà vu, as Baltimore’s zone blitzers collected 7
sacks and 5 takeaways in allowing only 20 total points vs. Cincy & Cleveland in
Ravens’ first two home games. With 4-0 Tennessee lacking premier WRs,
Baltimore’s zone blitzers will be after Collins if they are able to keep RBs C. Johnson
& L. White under control. Will Flacco remain unflappable vs. Titan defense (8
ints.)? Balt. FB Le’Ron McClain a revelation with 152 YR first two games.
(06-Baltimore -7 27-26...SR: Baltimore 9-8)



San Diego 23 - MIAMI 20—You can be sure Miami will add a few wrinkles to
its “Wildcat” formation after six plays at New England produced four TDs in the
Dolphins’ 38-13 upset (Miami QB coach David Lee was o.c. LY at Arkansas).
Fortunately for S.D., starting LB Stephen Cooper (Chargers’ top tackler LY)
returns to action this week. However, QB Philip Rivers (sacked four times by
Raiders last week) absorbing more punishment than LY. Chad Pennington
(64%) a steadying influence on Dolphin offense.
(05-Miami +13 23-21...SR: Miami 13-12)


CAROLINA 27 - Kansas City 10—Herm Edwards is still rather limited in his
offensive options, as K.C.’s best alternative is to bang away with Larry Johnson
and hope for error-free work from vet QB Damon Huard (which Huard provided
vs. Denver...and which Tyler Thigpen could not). But doubt L.J. can puncture
the stout Carolina defensive interior as he did the less-assertive Broncos with
198 YR. It’s looking like the 2003 Super Bowl year in Charlotte, with old WR
buddies Muhsin Muhammad & Steve Smith reunited (14 combined recs., 2 TDs
last week), providing familiar targets for re-energized Jake Delhomme.
(04-Carolina +6' 28-17...SR: Kansas City 2-1)



PHILADELPHIA 23 - Washington 13—Jim Zorn having fine success tutoring
potential-laden young QB Jason Campbell (66%, 6 TDs, 0 ints.) and inspiring
hard-driving runs by Clinton Portis (369 YR). But coping with the Philly pass
rush (17 sacks TY) can be tough (just ask Ben Roethliesberger). Status of Brian
Westbrook (knee) unclear, but Correll Buckhalter a serviceable sub, and rookie
WR DeSean Jackson has enlivened Eagle aerial game.
(07-Was. 20-PHIL. 12...W.19-18 W.33/130 P.20/114 P.28/46/0/226 W.16/29/1/207 W.0 P.0)
(07-Phil. 33-WAS. 25...W.25-22 W.36/158 P.28/139 P.20/28/0/240 W.23/34/0/203 P.2 W.2)
(07-Washington +6' 20-12, Philadelphia +2' 33-25...SR: Washington 76-65-5)


DETROIT 23 - Chicago 20—Oh, Happy Day! That’s the tune Lions’ fans
were singing last week when lucratively-paid GM Matt Millen was fired after
Detroit was 31-84 during his tenure. The question is whether such a move will
be a positive on the field for an 0-3 team that has been outgained by more than
100 yards in each game, out-rushed 623-227 overall, out-sacked 12-3, and
outscored 63-20 in the first half. Lions could hardly be worse. However, this is
the NFL, and let’s remember Detroit swept the Bears LY, has potent weapons
at WR, and is virtually in a must-win situation to join the NFC North race.
(07-DET. 37-Chi. 27...C.22-19 D.25/95 C.22/69 C.34/52/3/234 D.20/24/0/215 D.2 C.0)
(07-Det. 16-CHI. 7...D.22-16 D.28/119 C.20/63 D.24/35/0/246 C.22/40/4/192 D.1 C.0)
(07-DETROIT +2' 37-27, Detroit +5 16-7...SR: Chicago 87-64-5)



GREEN BAY 17 - Atlanta 16—Things keep repeating for Atlanta, which has
beaten two troubled teams (Detroit & Kansas City) in similar fashion and lost by
exact 24-9 scores at both Tampa Bay & Carolina. Catching angry Green Bay at
Lambeau after The Pack dropped a pair would appear to put this contest more
in the Bucs-Panthers category for Falcs. But not so fast, as G.B. might have to
go with rookies Matt Flynn and/or Jeff Brohm at QB if Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder
injury is serious. If that’s the case, Atlanta can hang around, especially with HC
Mike Smith having rookie Matt Ryan throw mostly short and safe while Michael
Turner (422 YR) keeps the clock and chains moving.
(05-Green Bay +9 33-25...SR: Green Bay 13-11)



NY GIANTS 33 - Seattle 17—Bye week came at a nice time for Seattle, which
is getting a bit healthier on offense and fortified depleted WR crew with recent
additions of vets Keary Colbert & Koren Robinson. But Seahawks likely to catch
a focused N.Y. team after uncharacteristic flat effort that nearly cost G-Men in
last outing vs. Cincy, not to mention N.Y.’s chance to stay ahead of Dallas in
ultra-tough NFC East. D.c. Steve Spagnuolo’s sack-happy Giant defense has
a rather stationary target in Matt Hasselbeck. N.Y. has covered 10 of last 12
overall. Totals note—Both teams trending “over” lately (Giants “over” 7-3 at
Meadowlands; Seattle “over” 20-7-1 last 28 as visitor).
(06-SEATTLE -3' 42-30...SR: NY Giants 7-5)



DALLAS 30 - Cincinnati 13—Carson Palmer’s elbow expected to be okay.
Even so, it’s hard to count on the poorly-balanced Cincy offense producing only
13 ppg vs. the improved Cowboy defense. Dallas underestimated Washington
last week. But another T.O. tirade is indicative that a similar occurrence unlikely
this week. Huge rush edge owned by RBs MB III and Felix Jones should make
play-action easy for Tony Romo and get winless Bengals to playing from behind
early. (04-CINCINNATI +1 26-3...SR: Dallas 5-4)


*JACKSONVILLE 23 - Pittsburgh 13—Jags have won last four meetings,
including LY’s controversial playoff victory in Pittsburgh. And, while
Jacksonville has plugged the early holes in its OL, the Jags now catch the
Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger nursing a sore shoulder, RB Willie Parker on
the shelf, and two starters out on Pittsburgh DL. Moreover, the Steeler OL was
overwhelmed in its last road game, giving up nine sacks in a 15-6 loss at Philly.
The healthier, more nimble David Garrard (7 for 41 rushing last week) could be
the difference. TV—NBC
(07-Jack. 29-PITT 22...J.25-13 J.42/225 P.17/111 J.17/33/1/197 P.16/33/0/106 J.0 P.0)
(07-Jack. 31-PITT 29...P.24-14 J.29/135 P.26/43 P.29/42/3/297 J.9/21/2/104 J.0 P.1)
(07-Jacksonville +3' 29-22, Jacksonville -2' 31-29 (Playoffs)...SR: Jacksonville 12-8)



MONDAY, OCTOBER 6
*Minnesota 27 - NEW ORLEANS 24—CB Mike McKenzie (int. last week;
torn ACL late LY) now has two games under his belt to help the N.O. defense
recover from its early-season injuries. And Saints rediscovered Deuce
McAllister (73 YR last week) to take some pressure of Drew Brees (8 TDs, 4
ints.). However, with Gus Frerotte (15 completions to WRs last week; check his
left hand injury) now balancing the Viking offense, will count on Adrian Peterson
(420 YR) and Minny defense to give Vikes a chance for a Monday night surprise.
Minny used to dome conditions. Saints “over” 17 of last 23. CABLE TV—ESPN
(05-MINNESOTA -3' 33-16...SR: Minnesota 19-7)

[ymmit2nd]

NFL

THE SPORTS REPORTER - NFL


BEST BET
ATLANTA over *GREEN BAY by 4
The Packers are enduring a tough time right now as AJ Hawk is dealing with a groin
injury and Al Harris is done for several weeks, if not the season, with a busted spleen. On
offense, new quarterback Aaron Rodgers is dealing with nagging injuries to his back and
shoulder, including a potentially dislocated throwing shoulder. There is a good chance
that Rodgers will be either hampered for this game, or miss it, which would test the
chemistry of an offense that was on the verge of truly coming together with Ryan Grant
healing up and the Rodgers-to-Greg Jennings combo becoming an every week threat.
Now the young, but feisty, Falcons travel to Lambeau Field with the chance to steal a
game on the road against one of the “better” teams in the conference that we’ve felt was
kind of fake all along anyway. Green Bay’s run defense has been horrendous, allowing
over 150 yards per game on the ground. The Atlanta game-plan should be centered
around exploiting that weakness. Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood form a potent
combination of power running and speed at the edges that will be instrumental in attacking
a weak Packers defensive front seven and easing the pressure of rookie franchise
quarterback, Matt Ryan. If the running game can force the Packers to play close to the
line of scrimmage, Ryan has the poise to find Roddy White as his big-play threat among
a group of back-up Green Bay corners. The Packers had everything go right for them last
season and even in the first two games of ’08. But the NFL has a way of leveling things
off and setting up “good” teams to be exploited. ATLANTA 20-16.





BEST BET
TAMPA BAY over *DENVER by 7
Layin’ points with that Denver defense, which hasn’t made a key stop since Hector was
a pup? Good luck to ya. Bucs’ head coach Jon Gruden hasn’t prioritized non-conference
road games and is 1-7 ATS in them since 2004, for anyone ATS logging at home. But
that’s part of the smokescreen for this particular match-up. Sure, the Bucs have NFC
South foe Carolina on deck. But the Panthers are hosting the Chiefs this Sunday, which
makes Carolina a good bet to be 4-1 when this game kicks off. With the New York Giants,
Dallas and Washington also 3-1, playoff spots might start to dry up early if teams with
winning records do not keep winning. Mike Shanahan is on the other sideline, and that
gets Gruden’s attention from when they squared off when Gruden coached the Raiders.
Playing in Denver also gets the attention of Bucs’ starting quarterback Brian Griese, who
was booed out of the place and returns as the Broncos’ defense is trying to stop moving
backwards all the time. The Bucs’ offense was logging more offensive plays per game
than anybody else in the NFL prior to facing Green Bay last Sunday (68), then went out
and logged 71 against the Packers, for 36 minutes of clock time. Denver QB Jay Cutler
is good for a few picks against a Cover-2 defense. Hey, he tossed two into the Chiefs’
Cover-2 last Sunday. TAMPA BAY, 27-20.



BEST BET
*ARIZONA over BUFFALO by 14
The Bills venture to the West Coast in a second consecutive non-conference road game
vs. an NFC West opponent. The Bills are already playing their third non-conference game
through five weeks and while they didn’t encounter much resistance while throttling
Seattle and St. Louis, perspective must be maintained. After all, the opening week
Seahawks had a rotating cast of no-names playing wide receiver and the Rams have
played like the worst team in the NFL. The wins were a big boost to an emerging franchise,
but Arizona, despite their own meltdown against Gang Green, are a better team
than their two divisional competitors. With the Bills riding high after starting the season
4-0 and Arizona looking weak after dropping two straight road losses, now is the time
for the smart investor to buy low and bet against the hype. The Bills will be traveling close
to 6,000 miles in the two weeks preceding this game and will be dealing with a knee
injury to their best cornerback, Terrence McGee. Arizona may or may not have Anquan
Boldin, after he suffered an ugly helmet-to-helmet hit against the Jets, but Larry
Fitzgerald will prove to be a complete mismatch against whichever cornerback lines up
against him – Ashton Youboty or Leodis McKelvin. Look for the home team to be rejuvenated
and regain some measure of pride after two desultory efforts. ARIZONA 28-14.



RECOMMENDED
*NY GIANTS over SEATTLE by 15
Seahawks’ head coach Mike Holmgren is a well-known schedule and standings cheat.
When it is imperative for Seattle to play, they play as well as they can play. When it isn’t
imperative for them to play as well as they can play, they play worse than their best and
point to the prioritized affairs. Holmgren’s team is 1-2. With a chance to tie 2-2 Arizona
and 2-2 San Francisco in the NFC West standings, it’s kind of imperative to play, but not
a drop-dead, must-have game because the Seahawks have Green Bay home on deck,
San Francisco and Arizona are loser-laden division rivals who play basically the same
tough schedule as the Seahawks face, and St. Louis barely exists. Giants dangerous
receiving weapon Plaxico Burress has been suspended for this game, and we ain’t fallin’
into the trap of expecting the Giants to fall apart just because the guy who caught the
Super Bowl-winning TD pass won’t be on the field. The Seahawks would need more than
the bye week preceding this to figure out how to protect Matt Hasselbeck from getting
torn in pieces by the Giants’ defense. If they are getting their best receivers like Engram
and Branch back after the bye after they’ve been injured and out so far, all the more reason
for the passing game to still be rusty and the offense prone to being pressured and
picked. The Seahawks’ offense isn’t gonna see the ball much anyway, unless their overrated
defense takes it away from Giants’ RB Brandon Jacobs. NY GIANTS, 28-13.




SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5
INDIANAPOLIS over *HOUSTON by 2
Peyton Manning and the Colts have to hope that the bye week fixed what ails them because
after this week’s tilt with the Houston Texans, the schedule becomes considerably more difficult.
A home game against Baltimore is followed by consecutive road games against the
Packers and Titans, with games against the Patriots and Steelers lying in wait. If the Colts
can’t get their line issues straightened out, this could be a very bumpy season. Jeff
Saturday’s return should give the offensive line some kind of consistency with the running
game improving in turn. Too often, the Colts have given Joseph Addai no room to run, putting
more pressure on a rusty Manning to carry the offense. More recovery time for an injured
offensive line can only make the Indy offense more consistent. However, the run defense
remains suspect due to a thin defensive line and Bob Sanders once again being out with
injury. New Houston tailback Steve Slaton, with his running and receiving skills, will be
expected to put up a big game in this home outing – the Texans will need it if they hope to
stay in this one. The Colts have handled the Texans pretty well over the years and the added
benefit of having the bye week should ensure that Indy wins their second game and returns
to .500 – an accomplishment that travels further and further out of sight for Houston as they
keep falling on their face against divisional opponents. INDIANAPOLIS 27-25.



TENNESSEE over *BALTIMORE by 6
Titans’ dominant d-lineman Albert Haynesworth and his buddies might munch on a Flacco
Joe sandwich for Sunday brunch here. As stated several times, Baltimore, against a good
defense, does not stand out as a profitable prospect vs. the spread. But they have their own
good defense and they might force Tennessee quarterback Kerry Collins to do bad things, as
many as Flacco Joe will do if the Ravens – off one of their two annual auto-grudge matches
vs. Pittsburgh on Monday Night -- cannot dent the Titans on the ground. When Collins sees
the Ravens’ helmets and colors, and Ray Lewis across from him at the line of scrimmage,
he will have flashbacks and day sweats about the 2000 Super Bowl, when Baltimore’s
defense did everything but yank his pants down and spank him in front of millions. A huge
game from Collins is highly unlikely, but the Titans are becoming Baltimore, Jr., winning
through intimidation and depth on the defensive front seven, which makes business easier
for the secondary. Both defenses are allowing low rushing yardage per game. When offenses
cannot run, they usually cannot pass well either, which makes for a low score unless
defense and/or special teams score points or set up short-drive offensive scores. TENNESSEE,
13-7.



SAN DIEGO over *MIAMI by 7
The San Diego Chargers should be nicknamed the Cardiac Kids for their propensity to coast
through the first half, then explode in the second half of games. That being said, Norv Turner
might have a reason to suffer an actual heart attack if there is reason for the Chargers to
need a second half comeback to defeat the Dolphins. Of course, he probably felt that way
when the Chargers allowed the Raiders to tie the game with 3 minutes left last week, but the
Chargers were once again able to pull it out. What’s most important for the gambler to realize
is that San Diego is an extremely talented but inconsistent team that has yet to coalesce.
Shawne Merriman’s injury has had an incredibly detrimental effect and the defense remains
a trouble spot that could be exploited by a creative offensive package out of Miami offensive
coordinator, Dan Henning. While the Miami defense hasn’t been spectacular, they have managed
to hang with solid offenses for most of the year. Having the bye week to game plan
should help the Dolphins hang with the Chargers for most of this game. Ultimately, the superior
firepower of the Chargers will cement the outcome, but be wary of an inflated point
spread and a Miami coaching staff that will do whatever it takes to even up the playing field
on game day. SAN DIEGO 27-20.



*CAROLINA over KANSAS CITY by 13
The absolute lack of any kind of pass rush or run defense by the Denver Broncos made the
Kansas City Chiefs look like a legitimate NFL offense for one week, at least. However, facing
an elite level defense like Carolina on the road will revert the Chiefs right back to their pedestrian
performances of the first three weeks. Damon Huard, who was benched for Tyler
Thigpen due to injury and ineffectiveness, will prove to be a great target against the strong
Carolina pass rush and the combination of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will face
little resistance against an inexperienced and inconsistent Kansas City front seven.
Conversely, Larry Johnson will find it difficult to put up another 100-yard game against a
stout run defense that has depth on the defensive line and fast linebackers to chase down
running backs in pursuit. It’s not like LJ is the fastest running back around and he’ll find it
more difficult to break tackles against a defense that does more than just stick an arm out
when trying to stop a moving object. The aging Patrick Surtain and his fellow cornerbacks
will prove witness to the improving rapport between Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith, which
in turn will open up the entire Carolina passing offense. Just witness what Muhsin
Muhammad did last week – while that is certainly not a performance that will repeat every
week, the return of Smith gives the Panthers one more option to worry the defense. CAROLINA
23-10.



*PHILADELPHIA over WASHINGTON by 3
Redskins are off a hard-fought win against division rival Dallas, the kind of thing that sometimes
can take the air out of a team temporarily. Yet the points we said were coming
Washington’s way in the Gibbs (ZZZzzz)-to-Zorn switch have materialized: 29, 24, 26 since
the opening night stonewalling suffered in New York. Gibbs and Al Saunders are looking like
human anchors now. You wouldn’t want to be a Philadelphia defensive player in practice this
week after they allowed Kyle Orton of the Bears to look like a champ in only the first half last
Sunday night. They will be drummed into a frenzy and be looking to take it out on Jason
Campbell and the Redskins. Can they? The Eagles have always prided themselves on allowing
yards but stiffening in the red zone, which didn’t happen last Sunday. Campbell has
always had problems producing in the red zone, and one Sunday’s work at Dallas isn’t
enough evidence that this problem has ceased. Getting Westbrook back would help the
Eagles soften up the Skins’ D and take the pressure off their own. PHILADELPHIA, 23-20.



CHICAGO over *DETROIT by 2
Somehow, Detroit was 2-0 vs. Chicago last season. They did something they usually do not
do – win – twice. Therefore, they are capable of doing it again. They are a group of blockheads
seeking to rise above the label, an often-dangerous mix. They have the added edge of
coming off a bye week, while the Bears played the Sunday Night game vs. Philadelphia last
week. Once again, the Lions alleged brain trust was in front of the big screen, passing around
the Pretzel Thins and Diet Squirt, thinking about how they might put their players in position
to beat the Bears, and hoping that their quarterback, Charlie Brown-head Kitna, doesn’t point
the gun at his own team despite no real running game to support him, which is one reason
for Kitna’s repeated self-inflicted wounds. Detroit’s ownership kicked the architect of their
mess out of his chair since they last played, but Matt Millen wasn’t on the field or coaching
the Lions, and the Ford family still has major karmic payback coming its way for manufacturing
machines that have killed more people than any other invention besides guns and
bombs, polluting the atmosphere and burning precious energy in the process. The Bears are
healthier on defense this season than they were for either of the meetings vs. Detroit in ’07,
and their o-line protects well enough. CHICAGO, 23-21.


NEW ENGLAND over *SAN FRANCISCO by 8
Matt Cassell isn’t Tom Brady – both of their mothers and the entire world knows that, including
the San Francisco 49ers. In fact, rumors persist that rookie Kevin O’Connell, a third round
pick out of San Diego State, may see some playing time against the 49ers. Bill Belichick has
had an extra week of preparation time to limit the exposure of his team’s weakest assets
while realizing that new San Francisco quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan has a tendency to hold on
to the football for way too long. Expect the Patriots to keep the pressure on O’Sullivan all day
long, which should result in Frank Gore receiveing a heavy workload. The 49ers just might
be able to hang with the big boys for a while, as the Patriots are traveling west for a nonconference
road game and may not be fully there mentally. But the prospect of chasing a 4-
0 Buffalo team should ensure that the Patriots pull out a victory over a team they have a
superior talent edge against. NEW ENGLAND 24-16.


*DALLAS over CINCINNATI by 20
Knee-jerk reaction would be to say that because Cincinnati went into New York as a two-TD
underdog and took the NFC East Giants to overtime, they will come into Dallas and stay close
with the Cowboys. Hey, they might, anything is possible, but it’s also possible that the
Bengals will have picked yet another bad week to be the Bengals, with Dallas coming off
their first loss last Sunday. Before the season started, we talked about how Dallas had prepared
itself for inevitable NFC East defeats by bringing in assistant coaches with recent experience
in the AFC, including new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, who was Cleveland’s
defensive coordinator for three seasons and game-planned against the Bengals six times in
that span. Even Wade Phillips, the head coach, game-planned against Bob Bratkowski’s
Cincinnati system when he was defensive coordinator of the Chargers in 2006. Cincinnati is
no stranger to the locker-room string pullers, whose ego-bruised player puppets will be
foaming at the mouth to get their stats back up to par this Sunday. Winless Cincinnati’s
seams could be unraveling and if the Dallas pass rush is effective, it may not matter whether
or not Carson Palmer returns from a sore elbow. He missed a key AFC North game last
Sunday, so the injury has to be significant. DALLAS, 37-17.




*JACKSONVILLE over PITTSBURGH by 8
Two straight game-winning field goals by Josh Scobee has given the Jaguars a .500 record
and a new lease on life. The Jacksonville offensive line has been slowly improving after a terrible
start to the season, as has their defensive line, and the performance of David Garrard
and the run defense is testament to that improvement. Conversely, any offseason talk about
Pittsburgh’s offensive line having turned the corner has been exposed as fradulent and erroneous,
after the way Ben Roethlisberger has been knocked around like a pinball all season.
The big quarterback is dealing with an injured throwing shoulder and has been battered
around every game without failure. The Jaguars should be able to exert similar pressure on
the quarterback this week and the absence of Willie Parker and the reliance on rookie
Rashard Mendenhall, who has noticeably struggled with blitz pick-ups in his young career,
should make the pass protection a precarious situation once more. The Jaguars are slowly
rising up after a disastrous start to the season and facing an injured Pittsburgh squad coming
off a short week of rest should help them achieve a winning record for the first time this
season. JACKSONVILLE 23-15.



MONDAY NIGHT, OCTOBER 6
MINNESOTA over *NEW ORLEANS by 1
You can buy the 1-3 SU and ATS Vikings cheap, despite the very real fact that they are transitioning
from the one of the best opposing offensive-defensive line combinations
(Tennessee) to one of the weakest. New Orleans’ running game, so-so at best, attempts to
dent a good run defense that did everything it needed to do last week in a loss, and might
get rewarded if they bring it again here. The Vikings will contain the run and they have the
speed on defense – especially at linebacker -- to chase down Bush on those screen and
wideout pass plays. Drew Brees has nightmares about floating balls over the line and into
Cover-2 defenses. The Saints’ ability to stop anything that moves with a purpose (do not
count the San Francisco 49ers’ offense as something that moves with a purpose) is highly
suspect. MINNESOTA, 24-23.

[ymmit2nd]

NFL

THE SPORTS MEMO - NFL


MARTY OTTO
INDIANAPOLIS -3 AT HOUSTON
O/U 47
Recommendation: Over
I normally wouldn’t play an NFL total lined this high but some real fundamental and situational factors line up and make this one hard to pass up. For starters, the Houston defense just can’t keep opponents off the scoreboard. They’ve given up at least 30 points in all three of their games thus far, equally gashed on the ground and through the air even by modest offensive teams like Jacksonville and Tennessee. While I think the Colts’ offense is somewhat diminished from recent years due to poor health along the front line, they did have the luxury of working out the kinks during their bye last week. Going back to the second half of the Minnesota game we have seen Peyton Manning shake off some of the rust after missing camp with a knee injury and the running game finally make a contribution. When the game has been on the line Manning
has led his team to easy points and I don’t see him having a problem picking apart Houston’s shady secondary. I don’t however think the Colts’ defense will be able to fix their problems in one week. They are undersized and inexperienced and the sudden emergence of Steve Slaton for Houston will add to the Colts’ misery in stopping
the run. Six straight in this head-to-head have gone Over and this makes seven.


FAIRWAY JAY
SAN DIEGO AT MIAMI +7
Recommendation: Miami
Two weeks ago we cashed our easiest winner of the season when the Dolphins (+12.5) traveled to New England and crushed the AFC Champs 38-13. Now back in action and coming off a bye week, Miami is in a very strong situation as a big home underdog. Numerous strong situational systems support Miami this week, as the players and coaches have the extra week of preparation and planning while the public still approaches these fish as dead and unable to swim with the big fish. The Chargers were losing 15-0 at halftime last week and struggled mightily with the Raiders before scoring 25 points in the fourth quarter to get the 28-18 victory and a remarkable pointspread cover. Oakland had some injured offensive linemen and less than 100% running backs, but still managed to outgain San Diego despite
Tomlinson’s big late touchdown run. This week it will be the Dolphins’ ground attack of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams that can chew up yardage similar to how the Panthers and Broncos (140+ each rushing) did while beating San Diego in weeks 1 and 2. Add in some single wing sets, short Pennington passes and a stronger
and improving Dolphins’ defense and this ‘Dog should be ready to bite again.



DONNIE BLACK
BUFFALO AT ARIZONA -1.5
Recommendation: Arizona
The Cardinals were 2-15 straight up in the Eastern Time Zone entering their game against the New York Jets. To spark some success the organization decided
to stay on the East Coast for the entire week. Many players were not in favor of the plan. Kurt Warner was the most outspoken against it and perhaps the results were indicative of his displeasure. The game results were not good as the Cardinals lost 56-35 and Warner had three fumbles lost and three interceptions. The Cardinals showed some spark as the offense
in the second half was tremendous. However, the defense could not slow down Brett Favre on his way to six touchdown passes. Off the big loss the Cardinals return home to face the perfect 4-0 Buffalo Bills who rallied in the second half to win and cover against the St. Louis Rams. Buffalo was outgained by more than 100 yards and was only 3-of-13 on third down yet was able to manage a 17-point win. For Buffalo, this will be the best team in the most favorable situation that they have faced this season. We expect Arizona to earn the win as we eagerly grab the small line in this matchup.




TEDDY COVERS NEWS AND NOTES


Bengals - Ryan Fitzpatrick is certainly no Carson Palmer; really struggling
with the down field passing game. 57 yards and two interceptions
in the first half doesn’t cut it, even for a backup. A big part of the problem is the offensive line. There’s no running game to support the quarterback here, and Fitzpatrick does not have time to find receivers down field. Chris Perry leads NFL running backs in fumbles through four games, another very bad sign. Even with multiple injuries in the secondary,
Cinci did do a solid job of shutting down the Browns passing game, the lone bright spot for the afternoon. This team is playing passionless football, and that’s a very bad sign this early in the season.


Bills - This is a team to bet against in the first quarter/first half. The sluggish starts have been a consistent thing for Buffalo; three straight weeks in which they’ve looked half asleep early. This offensive line is not getting the job done here - Trent Edwards took way too many hits and Marshawn Lynch did not have room to run. We forget how young this team actually is - there are only six players on the roster on the wrong side of 30. Hence, the lapses in concentration and intensity are perfectly understandable. And with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, no team in the NFL has stepped up better than the Bills so far this young season, turning fourth quarter deficits into victories in each of their last three ball games.


Broncos - Brandon Marshall might be the single best receiver in the NFL right now. The guy has linebacker size, but the softest hands around and the ability to outleap defenders. His touchdown catch to give the Broncos the lead here was truly a thing of beauty. With Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler, this passing game is borderline unstoppable, all with players that have three years of experience or less; an outstanding core group to build around. Too bad Jay Cutler had an awful afternoon, his first bad game of the season. This run defense is getting pushed around badly. The problems Denver has had with its front seven in recent years aren’t solved. Dre Bly is clearly the weak link in this secondary. This is not an upper echelon defense by any stretch of the imagination.


Chargers - LaDainian Tomlinson is a complete non-factor right now. It’s perfectly clear to anyone who is impartially watching that Darren Sproles is the more explosive running back. Every time Ted Cottrell calls a blitz, something good seems to happen. Every time the defense drops back into coverage, something bad seems to happen - the pass rush simply isn’t there without the blitz. I just can’t fathom why they aren’t blitzing on almost every play. Does anyone else think that Nate Kaeding is the spitting image of a young Bob Newhart, especially following
a missed field goal?


Chiefs - Herm Edwards refused to take a chance on fourth and short from inside the two yard line, settling for 23 and 21-yard field goals in the first quarter. It’s not rocket science to recognize that Edwards is too conservative, but this was downright ridiculous; a coach more interested in hanging around than in putting pressure on their opponent
right from the get-go. These rookie cornerbacks are going to have their share of growing pains. Punter Dustin Colquitt really might be the most important pointspread player on this team, consistently pinning the Broncos deep in their own territory. With all the money and high draft choices they’ve spent on their defensive line over the past few seasons, I have only one question - where’s the pass rush! Key injury to first round draft choice, offensive lineman Brandon Albert, who was carted off the field. At least Larry Johnson showed up today, carrying the team on his back to earn their first win since last October despite the offensive line woes.


Jaguars - These safeties are really struggling in pass coverage - the secondary depth here is not very good. And the once vaunted run defense
looked a bit suspect here - I’ve got serious questions about this defense. The Jags offense had the ball for 26 minutes in the second half against Indy last week, but that was only because the Colts were scoring so quickly. Here, the Texans were able to control the clock for a good portion of the game against Jacksonville. This coaching staff is making excellent adjustments at halftime. For the third week in a row, the Jags came out in the second half and marched down the field, taking control of a close game. David Garrard is really taking apart the Texans secondary with short, precise throws. Four drives in the second half and overtime; four scores.


Jets - Their uniforms are ugly enough to warrant some discussion here. Aren’t the Jets a green and white team, not a yellow-and-blue team? Quit messing me up! This was the second straight week that we’ve seen some ball-hawking potential out of this defense. On Monday
Night, the Jets had a pick six, and they had another one here with Darrelle Revis. Shaun Ellis forced a Kurt Warner fumble for a loss of 23 yards, negating a red zone opportunity, then Dwight Lowery created a turnover two plays later with a devastating hit on Anquan Boldin, recovered by the newly signed Hank Poteat. This young secondary is making some plays! Forcing five first half turnovers goes a long way towards notching a victory in a must win game.


Raiders - The Raiders were able to run the football effectively, even when facing eight or nine men in the box. And with the opposing defense selling out to stop the run, for the second straight week we saw a big play catch and run touchdown throw from JaMarcus Russell. But the passing game couldn’t carry the offense after halftime - held to a single first down for the first 25 minutes of the second half. And once Russell was faced with some blitzes, the offensive production declined markedly.
Texans - The whole offense is predicated on Matt Schaub’s ability to hit receivers in stride, and he’s just not doing that right now. Andre Johnson isn’t running crisp routes, and their shots down the field to Johnson aren’t connecting. Even the bread and butter of the offense, the underneath routes, are not connecting. One touchdown in six red zone possessions heading into this game, and it was a problem again here. Rookie running back Steve Slaton is very slippery, the perfect fit for this offense. But when the offense finally found some rhythm, the defense fell apart, allowing four scores on four drives after halftime. This secondary really is bottom tier - they need Dunta Robinson to get healthy ASAP.

[ymmit2nd]

PowerSweep

NFL


4*Tenn. 23-10
3*Arizona 31-20
2*Miami + 17-20
2*NYG 30-10

3* KC/Carolina Under 37
3* Washington Under 38
3* Bengals/Cowboys Over 44
2* Pats/49's Under 42
2* Colts/Texans O46



4* Tennessee over BALTIMORE - TEN is 4-0 for the 1st time in franchise history after a 4H win as a
Key Selection LW. BAL beat the Titans 27-26 in the last meeting in ‘06 but failed to cover as a 7 pt AF.
This game pits the Titans #5 D (#1 sacks) vs the Ravens #1 D (#17 sacks). The Ravens are off LW’s
MNF game vs PIT & teams are 6-20 ATS after dealing with the Steelers physical style of play. TEN is
11-4-1 ATS on the road. The Ravens have been able to insulate Flacco (129 ypg 58% 0-2 5.4 ypa) with
a strong run game but that has been vs CIN #19 & CLE #10 D’s which is inflated. While Flacco has
only been sacked once prior to MNF he’s only thrown 48 pass att’s which was tied for 31st prior to LW.
Dating back to LY TEN is allowing only 79 rush ypg (3.9) on the road. While BAL is only allowing 70 ypg
rushing (3.5) TY, CIN didn’t put much effort into WK 1 & CLE dumped the run game after Anderson’s
2 int put them in the hole. TEN QB Collins has fulfilled his role as a game manager admirably TY with
171 ypg (56%) with a 2-1 ratio in his 3 starts being sacked just once. TEN’s #8 pass D is only allowing
203 ypg (57%) with a solid 1-8 ratio with just a 5.7 ypa (52.5 QBR). While there is no line due to MNF
TEN has the better QB, is healthier with a very impressive defense with more rest & we return to them
as a Key Selection. FORECAST: Tennessee 23 BALTIMORE 10



3* ARIZONA over Buffalo - The Bills travel for the 2nd straight week but have a bye on deck. ARZ is
finally home after 2 straight road games. ARZ is 10-3 as a non-div HF & 6-1 ATS vs the AFC. ARZ decided
to stay out on the East Coast LW & they were unable to focus on the goal at hand with police escorts to
practice & spending their free time seeing the sights. They were down 34-0 at the end of the 1H with 4
TO’s converted into 20 pts & outgained 203-92. The came out strong in the 2H as they outscored NYJ
35-22 & had 27-9 FD & 376-170 yd edges. ARZ is expected to be without WR Boldin after he took a
vicious hit at the end of the game. BUF started slow vs STL LW being down 14-6 at the end of the 1H &
was outgained 210-96. They then rallied & scored 25 unanswered points. BUF only had an 11 yd edge
in the 2H but had 3 drives start on their 41 or better & 100 of STL yds came on their L2 drives. ARZ has
the #5 & #9 units which is impressive considering 3 of their 1st 4 games have been on the road. BUF’s
#17 ranking is skewed due to the success of their special teams & their #7 defensive ranking is vs a
STL team in chaos, OAK with essentially rookie QB, a JAX team with no quality WR’s & a depleted OL
& very beaten up SEA team. BUF will be hearing how good they are & front runners for the division but
expect an embarrassed ARZ team to come ready to play. FORECAST: ARIZONA 31 Buffalo 20


OTHER SELECTIONS

2* MIAMI (+) over San Diego - MIA is off a stunning upset win of NE before their bye & HD’s that
scored 24 or more before their bye are 13-5 ATS when they return. SD is in a tough spot here as they
are off a 1 pt loss to DEN, a MNF game, a road game vs OAK & have a SNF game vs NE on deck.
SD is 2-5 ATS in EST games. MIA is 1-5 ATS as a HD. SD gets a good matchup with Rivers who has
passed for 256 ypg (65%) with a 10-4 ratio taking on MIA’s #26 pass defense which is worse than the
ranking shows. They have allowed 242 ypg (69%) with a 6-1 ratio & 8.7 ypa (114.9 QBR). The Chargers
also have a huge special teams edge (#5 vs #32). Pennington has been very efficient with the ball (225
ypg 64% with a 2-1 ratio) but its the run game with Brown & Williams who have combined for 311 yds
(4.4) that makes the MIA offense go. SD was down 15-0 to OAK LW & was outgained 199-85 at the
half & a slow start on a long road trip would be tough to overcome. MIA’s Wildcat offense caught NE
completely off guard & Sparano will probably have more wrinkles for this game. We’ll side with MIA
here as an Ugly Dog which is now 19-9 (68%). FORECAST: MIAMI 17 (+) San Diego 20


2* NY GIANTS over Seattle - Both teams are off their bye weeks & SEA expects to get WR’s Engram,
Robinson & Branch back for this game. The Giants initially suspended WR Burress for this game after
he violated team rules but he is appearing. SEA is 1-8 ATS after a bye under Holmgren & 4-13 ATS in
EST games. The Giants are 5-13 ATS after a bye. This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years & SEA won the
last one 42-30 as a 3.5 pt HF. SEA was up 28-0 at the half & while the Giants had a 337-333 yd edge
198 yds came in the 4Q with the game out of reach. The Giants have won the yardage battle in all 3
games & have outgained foes 400-252 on the year earning 13 sacks. SEA has only outgained the hapless
Rams & were outgained by an avg 352-302 vs BUF & SF. Hasselbeck has struggled playing with
#6 & #7 WR’s starting with just 184 ypg passing (49%) with a 2-3 ratio & he faces the Giants #3 pass
defense. Manning has continued to be solid with 255 ypg passing (61%) with a 4-1 ratio & he gets to
take on SEA’s #25 pass defense. While SEA should be better with their WR’s returning the Giants are
at home, healthier & deeper at this point. FORECAST: NY GIANTS 30 Seattle 10







Indianapolis 31 HOUSTON 21 - The Texans finally get to play a HG but it’s vs a Colts team that was
stunned on a last second FG vs JAX. Dungy noted during the bye that Manning really needed the time
to heal his knee & improve his timing while the DL needed to assimilate their #3 & #4 DT’s which they
picked up off TC waivers. IND is 3-0 ATS after a bye but just 1-6 as a div AF. HOU is 9-4 ATS as a division
HD. The home team has covered 4 straight & the teams split LY’s series. IND beat HOU 30-24 but failed
to cover as a 6.5 pt AF as HOU opened the game with an 84 yd KR for a TD. IND had a 30-17 lead in
the 4Q but Schaub led HOU on a 75 yd 14 play drive to steal the cover. IND avg’d a 410-277 yd edge vs
HOU in both meetings LY. IND also expects C Saturday, LT Ugoh & TE Clark to return for this game but
SS Sanders is out for another month. Both teams are pretty even statistically (IND #19 & #23 vs HOU
#20 & #25) but HOU’s offense has been limited due to the lack of a true #1 RB even as Slaton only has
142 yds rushing (3.6) minus his 50 yd run vs TEN. Schaub had a good game LW with 307 yds passing
(73%) with a 3-0 ratio but JAX won the coin toss in OT & hit the game winning FG. Manning gets a good
matchup vs a HOU defense whose #9 pass defense ranking isn’t as good as it looks as they are allowing
160 ypg rushing (4.8). HOU does have a sizeable special teams edge but the Colts have put up 40, 36 &
29 pts after a bye the L3Y & the road team is the play in a higher scoring game.


CAROLINA 23 Kansas City 10 - This is only the 2nd time CAR has ever been a DD favorite & they are
4-1-1 ATS as a fav of 7 or more. KC goes from facing strong offensive team to a stout defensive team
& was a much needed bye on deck. CAR is in a flat spot here after facing 3 of the better defenses & a
beating a division rival as a 3H LPS at home. They now get one of the NFL bottom feeders & CAR has a
road game vs TB on deck. CAR’s win came at a heavy price as both OT’s Gross & Otah were KO’d of LW’s
game & their status is unknown. KC is 2-6-1 ATS on the road vs the NFC but CAR is 2-5-1 ATS at home
vs the AFC. KC snapped a 12 game losing streak but lost 1st RD DC LT Albert (knee). KC has only won
the yardage battle in 3 of their L13 games. The Chiefs were able to take advantage of DEN’s #30 defense
& RB Johnson rushed for 198 yds (7.1). Fielding a pair of rookie CB’s the Chiefs were able to hold a DEN
team that scored 41, 39 & 34 in their first 3 to just 19 pts. CAR outgained ATL 401-268 & forced them to
punt on their 1st 4 drives of the 2H and followed up with a pair of SOD. Delhomme had a standout day with
294 yds passing (69%) with a 2-0 ratio & 10.1 ypa. CAR is a poor HF but KC has struggled with power
rushing teams TY (OAK, ATL) & they are too young to take on a CAR team playing with confidence.

PHILADELPHIA 21 Washington 10 - The Eagles are off LW’s SNF game vs CHI & it’s not known if McNabb
played the entire game or if RB Westbrook & TE Smith played. The dog has covered 3 straight & PHI lost
to WAS 20-12 as a 6.5 pt HF LY on MNF. PHI is 2-5 ATS as a div HF. PHI has won the yardage battle in 5
of their L6 games thanks to a resurgent McNabb with a 377-264 yd edge going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS. While
McNabb has passed for 288 ypg (66%) with a 10-3 ratio the rush defense has been outstanding allowing
just 65 ypg (3.3). They have allowed 216 ypg passing (56%) with a 3-6 ratio & have earned 18 sacks.
WAS upset DAL LW with a good game by Portis (121 yds 5.8) & another efficient game by Campbell who
passed for 231 yds (65%) with a 2-0 ratio. WAS forced DAL to punt on 4 of their 1st 5 drives & held DAL
to 44 yds rushing (4.0). While there is no line due the SNF game, Westbrook should return here & we’ll
side with the home team.



Chicago 24 DETROIT 17 - DET did some housecleaning during the bye & the new front office immediately
turned the

[ymmit2nd]

Ron Raymond
1 2008-10-04 RON RAYMOND'S NFL UPSET SPECIAL BEST BET PICK
Pick # 1 Miami Dolphins (6.5)



2008-10-04 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH
Pick # 1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Denver Broncos Under 46.5 -1

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Big Al for Sunday

3 Indy UNDER
3 Philadelphia Eagles
3 Arizona

Opinions Niners & Seattle
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[ymmit2nd]

Doug Williams

Here we go with Week 5 -- 2nd quarter of the season. We're starting to see some big lines, big matchups, and big byes.

The Picks:
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Indianapolis Colts (-3) OVER Houston Texans (+3) -- Indy's coming off a bye week and they're going to be hungry. Steve Slaton might run all over them, but I still like Manning to come through for the Colts (and you guys).


New England Patriots (-3) OVER San Fran 49ers (+3) -- Ok, so if I told you last year that taking the Colts AND Pats at -3 in week 5 wouldn't be a no-brainer, would you believe me? Believe me now, bye week = rested, covering machines.


Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) OVER Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) -- I'm taking the home faves in this one. Big Ben has been taking a beating lately, and I just don't like the Steelers' RB situation. Go Jags.

Dallas Cowboys (-16) Over The Bengals (+16) -- taking a line that's over 2 TDs? Yes. The 'boys are just that much better than this dysfunctional squad. I feel a lot stronger about the first three picks...but why not this one too?

[ymmit2nd]

SPYLOCK

San Fran +3......5 units

[ymmit2nd]

ace-ace

$400.00 Take ‘Under’ 44.5 Chicago at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
The 'under' is 5-2 in Chicago's last seven road games. I think that Detroit is going to "get back to basics" after their bye week and I look for them to commit to the running game. I also think that they will shore up their defense in the time off and that they won't get blown out like they have in their first three games. This game features two teams that both employ the Tampa-2 defense, which is supposed to minimize big plays. Also, this is a key game for both teams that could change the direction of both seasons. I expect it to be close and to stay in the 30's.

$2000.00 Take Denver (-3) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) -110
The Broncos come home after an upset loss and should regroup nicely. This is a very young, inexperienced Denver squad and I think that they are going to be affected more drastically by playing at home versus on the road. Tampa Bay is coming off a pretty emotional home win over Green Bay, but they had trouble with the Packers passing attack.

$300.00 Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Indianapolis at Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
Also Houston +3 for $300.00 +104
We are going against the squares with this selection, as everyone expects two big offenses to put up all kinds of points. However, both teams move the ball well enough to keep the chains - and the clock - moving. I also don't think either team stops the run particularly well so look for both teams to keep it on the ground. Many of the games in this series have gone 'over', so I am looking for the books to overcompensate and for us to collect with an easy 'under'.

$800.00 Take Buffalo (+1.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +104
People continue to doubt the undefeated Buffalo Bills. They are undefeated on the season, and if they can win in Jacksonville I think they can win out in the desert against a Cardinals team that has only beaten bad teams like Miami and San Francisco. Arizona is also probably going to be without some key contributors, as Anquan Boldin and Adrian Wilson are both just 50-50 to play. Buffalo is 13-4-2 ATS following an ATS win and I think they keep it rolling.

$2000.00 Take Washington (+6) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
I don't think that Brian Westbrook is going to play this weekend, and if he doesn't then look for the Redskins to make it back-to-back divisional wins on the road. Even if Westbrook does suit up, he won't be 100 percent and the Eagles are not the same team without him in the lineup. The Redskins have covered seven of nine games in conference play and they are 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven against the Eagles. The road team has been the play in this series, winning six of nine games outright. I think the points hold up.

$400.00 SWEETHEART TEASER: Take Washington (+16), Take Vanderbilt (+14.5), and Take Kansas City (+19.5) -480/400

[RazorMX]

any chance of VictoriousPlay for NFL?

[SiberianExpress]

maddux sports

Football
#408 - NFL - 3 units on Baltimore +3
#424 - NFL - 3 units on San Francisco +3.5
#426 - NFL - 3 units on Arizona -1
#417 - NFL - 3 units on Atlanta & Green Bay Over 40.5
#429 - NFL - 3 units on Pittsburgh +5.5
2 Added picks for the Sunday card. Going to take a pass on Miami and not force a play at +6, if you can get +7 -110 with a local I think they are a good bet. Everyone will likely to be on Jacksonville Sunday night so you may get a better line before kickoff if you wait. Getting the opportunity of Pittsburgh +6 or better is worth taking the chance of losing +5 which is a dead number in the NFL

[Nickels And Dimes]

bobby esposito 50,000 dime oddsmaker error?? i only ask because i believe someone said they will have it ?

[Heel_Yes]

I saw Dr. Bob's picks on the 1st page, but he has a best bet on NE and San Fran.

Does anyone has what that pick is?

[Piks]

Dr. Bob

BEST BET 3* San Fran


GL
Piks

[stuckforever]

Al Demarco 25 Dimer
Denver Broncos -3


thanks! by any chance, do you have the writeup?

[LongboardLarry]

FOOTBALL JESUS SUNDAY EARLY PLAYS

Dolphins+7
Seahawks+7
Ravens+3

[Nickels And Dimes]

is 2DIMES alive?? anywhere...hes missing in action..if so...check yo mailbox bossman :toast:

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Golden Contender Sunday Nfl System Club Play Courtesy Of Selective Sportssystems on Sunday They System Club Play Is On The Philly Eagles.game 414 At 1pm Eastern.the Eagles Qualify In A Few Tight Systems One Of Which Goes Against The Redskins Which Is Hitting In The High 90/s As Far As Percentage Wise Goes.last Weeks System Club Play Cashed Making The Nfl Record Even At 2-2.lets See If We Can Get It Over 500 Today.due To The Redskins Big Upset Win Last Week They Are Set Up In A Lot Of Negative Situations On Sunday,one Of Which Is To Play Against Road Dogs Between 5-10 Points Provided They Are Off A Road Dog Win,and There Opponent Is Off A Road Favored Loss.with The Big Dog Win In Dallas Coupled With The Philly Failure In Chicago Last Week Ill Back The Eagles Here On Sunday.the Record Of The Aforementioned System Is 0-11 Su 2-9 Ats Against The Skins.for The Rest Of The Card I Have A 19-0 Su-ats System Bomb Where Qualifying Teams Are Winning By An Average Of 17 Points Per Game.a 92% Totals Play In Nfc Action, Plus A Solid Home Dog Situation And A Bases Play. The Eagles Will Be Rated At 4 Units At 7 Or Less Bol Goldencontender.
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty missed with UNLV ( 2) and Ohio University ( 6-1/2) yesterday.

Today it's the Lions, 49ers and Cardinals. The deficit is 110 sirignanos.

[layker]

Anyone know what Maddux, Football Jesus, and Dr. Bobs pro records are like this year?

[LLXC13]

Dr. Bob is 3-1 in the NFL. He doesn't play much NFL till around after Week 5. 2-0 on 3* and 1-1 on 2*.

[LLXC13]

Maddux has been on FIRE lately...according to his website, he is on a 30-7 run in NFL and NCAAF combined...

[drdubois]

kelso has two plays for today in nfl

50 stars each

thanks the dr

:money8::money8::money8:

[mt.gardner77]

any chance of VictoriousPlay for NFL?


Hey Razor, I'm gonna buy the Soccer, someone dropped them here yesterday and they went 3-0! I'm gonna post them once I receive them...

You wanna get the NFL so we can exchange them??? I read on their blog that they went 3-0 yesterday on NFL!

Thanks!

[mt.gardner77]

As promised, here are the VictoriousPlay recommendations for today...

Soccer Victorious Plays:


Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC (English Premiership)
Recommendation: 2* Manchester City 0,+0.5


Portsmouth FC vs. Stoke City FC (English Premiership)
Recommendation: 2* Portsmouth –0.5,-1


Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Hull City AFC (English Premiership)
Recommendation: 2* Tottenham Hotspur -0.5, -1

FC Schalke 04 vs. VfL Wolfsburg (German Bundesliga)
Recommendation: 3* Schalke 04 –0.5


they also have a free recommendation on their blog, Spartak or whatever on under...

GL ALL!!!:pope:

Razor, are you gonna place here those NFL plays, please??? thanks!

[ymmit2nd]

NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 4* (1-0).
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 5* (1-0)

5-ne
4-tb
3-mia
2-gb
1-sea

[ymmit2nd]

Vegas Experts The Edge Newsletter

3*Carolina
3*Arizona
3*Jacksonville

[DirtyErnie]

Hey Razor, I'm gonna buy the Soccer, someone dropped them here yesterday and they went 3-0! I'm gonna post them once I receive them...

You wanna get the NFL so we can exchange them??? I read on their blog that they went 3-0 yesterday on NFL!

Thanks!
How did they go 3-0 in nfl yesterday?

[hook'em]

:WTF:hey guy's did anyone see how root did yesterday not very good from what I saw.

[rocky2]

Tim Trushel
20* Lions

[Roc112]

Big Al for Sunday

3 Indy UNDER
3 Philadelphia Eagles
3 Arizona

Opinions Niners & Seattle
<!-- / message -->


Hey Cpaw who is Big Al ? is he big al mcmordie from the winningedge or some other person?

[rocky2]

Erin Rynning...20* Playmaker Ravens

[cut-paste-hero]

Hey Cpaw who is Big Al ? is he big al mcmordie from the winningedge or some other person?

http://www.toptencappers.com/uploads/pictures/handicappers/thumbnail/279ec8ed466da293c3381757f3a4077f.gif

[ymmit2nd]

INDIAN COWBOY

Take Over 47 (POD) between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans
(Sunday 1pm Eastern).

Take Arizona -1 over Buffalo (Sunday 4:15pm Eastern).

[Roc112]

http://www.toptencappers.com/uploads/pictures/handicappers/thumbnail/279ec8ed466da293c3381757f3a4077f.gif

Thx, cut paste hero

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Nathan Armstrong
Highprofitsports

5* Total Of The Month Denver/tampa Under
3* Giants
3* Cardinals
3* Cinci/dallas Over
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

WILD BILL

Sunday, Oct 5

Phillies -110 (5 units)
White Sox -135 (5 units)
Under 8 1/2 Tampa-CWS (5 units)
Angels +165 (5 units)

[Can'tPickaWinner]

HONDO

October 5, 2008

KITTERY POINT, Maine - Hondo's investments on Chicago's Lovable Lou-sers ended in the sewer as he went down the drain with both his NLDS and World Se ries investments. Fortunately, some of the pain was eased by Mr. Aitch's Texas Tech triumph, so the earn ings were trimmed only to 580 grogans.

Today, it looks like free-money in Frisco. The bye week gave Belichick two weeks to prepare, so there's no telling how many illegal cameras he has set up in Candlestick Park. Ten units on the Pats.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Cappers Access

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Texans
Lions
Broncos
Jaguars
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Armvin Sports Nfl

10/5/2008 New England -3

[Can'tPickaWinner]

DaMan Sports MLB

10/5/2008 TAMPA BAY RAYS 129

[hockey2424]

He's got a 50 Dime release from the Baltimore crew.....anyone got it??

[Kinged]

<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5COwner%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><!--><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:Verdana; panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:536871559 0 0 0 415 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--> Over the years I have followed the Bookies Battle in [I]GamingToday. The angle is to fade those teams that clearly have over 70% of the casino contestants picking one side.

Let’s see how this angle has worked so far this year.

Week #1 thru #4: 6-4-1 <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Over the last couple of years, it seemed to hit around 60%.The only problem: Not a lot of action.

Week #5 Picks are on: HOU and CIN<o:p></o:p>

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Rewyan expert's 05/10

NFL ATS:
Indianapolis Colts -3
Tennessee Titans -1
San Diego Chargers -6.5
Carolina Panthers -9.5
Chicago Bears -3.5
Green Bay Packers -3.5
Denver Broncos -3.5
Cincinnati Bengals +17
Jacksonville Jaguars -5

NFL Total:
San Diego Chargers/Miami Dolphins Over 44.5
Kansas City Chiefs/Carolina Panthers Over 38.5
Washington Redskins/Philadelphia Eagles Over 41.5
Chicago Bears/Detroit Lions Under 45.5
Tennessee Titans/Baltimore Ravens Over 33.5
Pit/Jack over 36.5
NE/SF over 41
Dal/CIN over 44.5

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bears

[Can'tPickaWinner]

The Vegas Steam Line

Sunday: Take New England/San Francisco OVER the total of 41

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Beat Your Bookie

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->100 san diego
50 jacksonville
50 dallas
<!-- / message -->

[Jake Gittes]

Frank Rosenthal

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 05, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB
971 PHILLY-110 SB
975 RAYS+130 SB
977 ANGELS+160 SB
NOTE:
PMG=ADVERTISED PITCHERS MUST GO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL - WEEK 5
405 COLTS-3 SB+
410 DOLPHINS+6.5 SB
415 BEARS-3 SB+
422 BRONCOS-3 -120 SB
423 PATS-3 SB
427 BENGALS+17 SB+
UNDER 45 SB
430 JAGS-4.5 SB
OVER 36 SB+

[johnmadden13]

Would love to get Budin before heading down to the Linc!:cripwalk:

[johnmadden13]

It will pop up soon:pope:

[Karol58]

That is not correct. Kelso has 50 unit play on Arizona Cardinals. Please note correction. Given wrong pick over phone. 50 unit play from Kelso Sturgeon is Arizona Cardinals.

[odds on sports]

It will pop up soon:pope:
arizona

[odds on sports]

Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK
50 DIME

ARIZONA

paid.
BTW, I like his pick again today.
GL!

[odds on sports]

yourwinningpicks nfl full card:

****STRONG OPINION****San Diego Chargers (-6.5) VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS: The Chargers are a team that no one can quite figure out as they seem to struggle to play complete games. They were awful in the first half against a bad Raiders team last week before rallying in the second half for the win. Now they cross the continent to take on a Dolphins team coming off a bye and who are feeling good after upsetting the Patriots the week before. They should play well again here at home as QB Chad Pennington will be able to throw against the awful Charger secondary that gives up the most passing yards in the league. That will enable Pennington to set up his play action passing which is his strength and also allow star RB Ronnie Brown to pick up nice yardage. The Dolphins are also in agood betting situation as they qualify for a 22-3 ATS angle that play on a home underdog after a bye. THE PICK: Miami Dolphins (+6.5)


****BEST BET***PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-6) VS. Washington Redskins: This is a classic letdown/bouonce back game for these teams as the Eagles come off a tough loss on the road to the Bears while the Redskins are on a three-game winning streak and due for a stumble. The Birds have owned this series over the years, especially at home and they should be up to the task again this week. The ferocious Eagle pass rush will make things difficult for Redskins QB Jason Campbell and give little running room to RB Clinton Portis. Washington also is in a terrible spot due to an incredible 1-17 ATS angle that plays against teams that won as a huge underdog the previous week. To top it off, they also qualify in a 22-56-2 ATS road letdown angle. This one is clear as day. THE PICK: Philadelphia Eagles (-6)


*****BEST BET*****New England Patriots (3.5) VS.20SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: The Patriots are just not a very good football team right now and that was before the Dolphins smashed them in the mouth two weeks ago. New England is seriously doubting themselves after that game and the bye week won’t fix the fact that the offense is a joke without Tom Brady at QB. The 49ers on the other hands have played better than expected as JT O’Sullivan continues to do a nice job complementing the great running of Frank Gore. The spread on this game reflects the respect the oddsmakers have for New England but realistically the Niners should be favored by a field goal here. I will gladly take the 3.5 points based on that mistake by them and also by the fact they the Patriots are 7-10 ATS under Belichick following a loss which included 0-3 ATS after the bye. Look for the upset here. THE PICK: San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)


****STRONG OPINION****DALLAS COWBOYS (-17) VS. Cinc innati Bengals: The Cowboys will absolutely roll here after their shocking loss to the Redskins last week. They will show no mercy against a Bengals team who will once again be without QB Carson Palmer. Without Palmer the offense is awful and don’t count on Ryan Fitzpatrick being able to generate much in the passing game. Tony Romo and company will have a field day against the pathetic Bengals defense. This one should be over by the half at the latest. This pick applies only if Fitzpatrick plays. THE PICK: Dallas Cowboys (-17 if Palmer is out, otherwise its OFF)


****BEST BET****ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1) VS. Buffalo Bills: The Bills are the surprise team of the league as they come into this one at 4-0 with some impressive wins on their resume. This is a bad spot for them however as they must cross the country and take on a Cardinals team that has proven to be a very tough team to deal with at home. The Cards are ticked off after losing two straight and the defense should have an easier time with the less-expl osive Buffalo attack. Arizona is in a great spot as they apply to a 31-6 ATS bounce back angle. THE PICK: Arizona Cardinals (-1)

[ymmit2nd]

Teddy Covers

5* Over 47 Colts
4* Jaguars -4
3* Chiefs +10.5
3* Over 45 Bears
3* Broncos -3

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Hilton Contest Leader picks. Two tied for first at 17-3.

KING OF CRUNK: Baltimore, Miami, Atlanta, San Fran, Minnesota

FEZZIK: Baltimore, Miami, Atlanta, San Fran, Arizona


Hilton Wk 5 Picks

4-1 last wk

12-8 season

1 Ariz -1
2 Bal +3
3 Ind -3
4 Den-3
4 Jax -4

There was a tie between Den and Jax so that is why there is no 5

[B.S.S.]

Arthur Ralphs Superpicks Are 10-2 In Football This Year.
Anyone Have It?

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Cajun-Sports NFL Executive Report -Sunday

NFL: 21-9 (+39.80)


Time / Date: 4:15 EST / Sunday October 5

Game: New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers

Line Origin: BetCris @ 8:33 EST October 4

Grade / Prediction: 5* New England Patriots -3

Analysis:

The New England Patriots make the long trip west to face the hometown San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon. Both teams are coming into this contest off of a SU loss although the Patriots had a bye week last week and time to think about their embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Miami Dolphins.

The Patriots have played well of late when coming off their bye week posting a record of 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS since 2003. We also note that the Patriots under Head Coach Bill Belichick are 13-4 ATS their last 17 coming off a SU loss of 10 or more points in their last game.

The 49ers are a much improved team this season but as we all witnessed last week they are far from being an elite team. They were beaten soundly and failed to cover the number against a beat-up and injury riddled Saints squad last week.

San Francisco lacks any real threats on the outside and relies solely on the running of Frank Gore. San Francisco QB JT O’Sullivan has been sacked 19 times already this season and that will not get any better against this veteran Patriots defense. With two weeks to prepare you know Belichick has prepared his defensive unit with a solid game plan to force O’Sullivan into mistakes and/or sacks.

Word out of the Patriots camp is they have gone back to the basics and have worked extremely hard since that humiliating loss to the Dolphins to ensure they do not get embarrassed like that again. Patriot Coaches have tailored the offensive playbook more to QB Cassel’s liking and Brady has been working with the youngster to help with his preparation for this week’s game.

For the most part this is the same Patriots team with the glaring exception of Tom Brady. With the extra time to prepare it should help in that department especially for Cassel. We know the 49ers defense is suspect as they gave up 30 points to Seattle and 31 points to New Orleans and both teams were limited on offense due to a number of players being out with injuries.

On the technical front we see that Coach Belichick is 22-9 ATS in his career on the highway when coming off a SU loss including a perfect 9-0 SU and ATS his last 9. He is also a perfect 7-0 ATS when favored by 7 or less in that situation. Belichick’s teams have faced NFC West opponents thirteen times in this situation and yes he is a perfect 13-0 ATS in that role. One more tech set tells us that San Fran when coming in off a non-division contest installed as an underdog and now facing an AFC opponent are only 1-10 ATS in that role.

The Patriots are 13-1 ATS on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game are fewer than 30. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS on the road when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. The League is 46-17-3 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.

The 49ers are 1-10 ATS after playing on the road as a dog. The 49ers are 1-12 ATS the week after in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The 49ers are 0-8 ATS as a dog after playing on the road as a dog. The League is 1-17 ATS within 3 of pick at home when they are 500. The League is 1-13-1 ATS within 3 of pick at home when they are 500 after a straight up loss.

Our Situational Report tells us to Play Against teams with a Rush Rating For advantage >2, a below average Passing Game and an above average Rushing Attack, 22-3 ATS since 1994.

We have two NFL Power Systems that are active for today’s game. The first one tells us to Play On NFL road teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a road loss, 27-7 ATS since 2003. The second system says to Play On NFL road teams off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, in weeks 5 through 9, 25-6 ATS last ten years.


GRADED PREDICTION: 5* New England Patriots -3






Time / Date: 4:05 EST / Sunday October 5

Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos

Line Origin: BetCris @ 9:20 EST October 4

Grade / Prediction: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

Analysis:


The Denver Broncos will play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon at Mile High. Denver returns home off an embarrassing loss last week to the winless Kansas City Chiefs while the Bucs defeated Green Bay in Tampa. Both teams share a 3-1 record on the young season.

Denver has been great offensively this season; Jay Cutler has really come into his own as an NFL Quarterback. They are averaging better than 6.5 yards per play on offense this season. Their problem is their defense allows about the same yards per play and has been unable to keep the opposing teams out of the end zone.

Tampa Bay’s defense will be the strongest the Broncos have faced to this point in the season. The Buc’s “D” has some playmakers on that side of the ball and should be able to slow the Denver offense enough to give their offense a chance.

The Buc’s offensive unit with RB’s Earnest Graham who has rushed for 334 yards this season with an average of 5.9 yards per carry and Warrick Dunn who has 197 yards rushing on 4.7 yards per carry should have a big day against the Denver defense.

Last week the Buc’s rushed for 178 yards on 4.3 yards per carry. The Denver defense allowed KC to rush for 213 yards on 6.5 yards per carry. This is not a good match up for the Broncos to try and get last weeks loss off their minds. They will be facing the better defensive unit and a team that can rush the football.

Our Situational Report shows the Broncos in a negative situation that tells us to Play Against teams with a SU Win% that is >than last season’s SU Win% and a Pass Offense Rating Advantage >1 with a gross PYF>44 and rushing yards against-for were >75 in their last game. This situations record is 34-3 ATS since 1994 and a perfect 2-0 ATS this year.

The Buccaneers are 10-1-1 ATS versus any team with the same record after playing at home. The League is 23-5-2 ATS within 3 of pick when on a 3 game SU and ATS winning streak. The League is 41-17-2 ATS on the road versus any team with the same record after a straight up win. The League is 7-0 ATS within 3 of pick the week after a win when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they were behind by at least a TD at the end of the first quarter.

The Broncos are 8-24 ATS as a home favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Broncos are 4-17-3 ATS as a favorite versus any team with the same record. The Broncos are 2-12-3 ATS as a favorite versus any team with the same record. after a straight up loss. The League is 0-10-1 ATS within 3 of pick at home versus any team with the same record after a straight up loss on the road.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that tells us to Play Against NFL teams with a defense that is allowing 24 or more points per game, after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored, 99-56 ATS the last ten years.


GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3






Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday October 5

Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens

Line Origin: BetCris @ 10:52 EST October 4

Grade / Prediction: 4* Baltimore Ravens +3

Analysis:


The Baltimore Ravens will play host to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon at M & T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. The Ravens are coming in off an overtime loss on Monday night in Pittsburgh and the Titans are coming in off their first 4-0 start in franchise history including when they were in Houston.

These two teams have arguably the best defenses in the league right now. Over their first three games the Ravens have only allowed 3.5 yards per play. Teams have found it rough going when they attempt to run the football as the Ravens only allow a little over 3 yards per carry.

Baltimore’s pass defense has suffered from the injury bug with CB Samari Rolle and Safety Dawan Landry both having injuries. They gave up over 6 yards per pass play to the Steelers on Monday night after only allowing an average of less than 3 yards per pass play in their first two games.
Ravens QB Joe Flacco, the first-round pick of the 2008 draft for Baltimore, started his career with consecutive wins prior to last Monday’s 23-20 overtime loss to Pittsburgh. First year Coach John Harbaugh will continue to work the offense the same, run the ball, throw safe short passes to Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason, who are very good at finding holes in zone defenses.
The experience factor will change in due time, but Baltimore, like Tennessee, has its offense centered on a bulldozing running attack. Willis McGahee (questionable), LeRon McClain and Ray Rice form an intimidating backfield trio that punishes defenses from any point on the field.
It’s still all about the defense and the Ravens defenders are vultures when at home with a 7-0 ATS record after allowing 225 or less total yards a game over their last three.
The Titans will once again have veteran QB Kerry Collins under center for Sunday’s game. Vince Young returned to practice this week but he will serve only as a back-up to the back-up. His mental status is still unknown and Coach Fisher said he is sticking with Collins as long as they continue to win. That may end in Baltimore on Sunday.

As evenly matched as the Ravens and Titans are in rushing the ball and defense this game will likely come down to mistakes and special teams. Baltimore has an edge on special teams and playing at home we believe the Ravens will make fewer mistakes and come away with the upset victory.

Our Situational Report shows the Ravens to be in a positive situation in today’s contest. It states to Play On teams with a Rushing Play% For more than their opponents RP% and a Total <35 and a Fumble Differential >0.5 for the season. This situations record is 71-15 ATS since 1994 and a perfect 1-0 ATS this season.

The Titans are 2-9 ATS within 3 of pick versus a non-divisional opponent. The Titans are 4-14 ATS when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is greater than 30. The Titans are 1-6 ATS on the road after playing as a favorite. The League is 8-23-1 ATS as a road favorite when they won last week while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2 at home as a favorite. The League is 2-10-3 ATS as a road favorite the week after at home when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average.

The Ravens are 12-2-2 ATS at home after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average. The Ravens are 8-0 ATS within 3 of pick the week after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays as a dog. The Ravens are 12-3 ATS when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. The League is 14-3 ATS after a loss on the road as a dog against a divisional opponent in which they were winning at the half.

Technical, Fundamental and Situational support gives of this home underdog winner for Sunday afternoon. Back the host here in a mild upset and the Ravens stop the Titans undefeated streak.

GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Baltimore Ravens +3







Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday October 5

Game: Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans

Line Origin: BetCris @ 8:44 EST October 2

Grade / Prediction: 4* Indianapolis / Houston Over 47

Analysis:

The Houston Texans play host to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon in Houston. Sunday will mark the first game of the season at Reliant Stadium for the Texans, who were forced to play their first three contests on the road due to the effects of Hurricane Ike. They finished that stretch with a 30-27 overtime loss last Sunday at Jacksonville.
A shaky start through the first few weeks of the season has the Indianapolis Colts in an unfamiliar territory with a 1-2 record. Slow starts are uncommon for Indianapolis which has opened each of the last three seasons 7-0 or better.
Although they bounced back from a season-opening home loss to Chicago with an 18-15 road victory at Minnesota in Week 2, the Colts couldn't keep their momentum going as they fell 23-21 at home to division foe Jacksonville on Sept. 21.
After allowing the third-fewest total yards last season, the Colts have surrendered the eighth-most (1,021) through three games, including 403 in their most recent loss. They have particularly struggled to stop the run, yielding an average of 199.3 yards after giving up 236 versus Jacksonville.
Houston's Matt Schaub rebounded from a three-interception game in a loss at Tennessee the previous week with a strong performance against the Jaguars. He was 29-for-40 for 307 yards and a career high-tying three touchdowns as the Texans racked up a season-best 386 yards.
Schaub was 27 of 33 for 236 yards and a TD in a 30-24 home loss to the Colts on Sept. 23, 2007 in his only appearance against the division rivals.
Houston’s offense finally played up to their potential last week, averaging 6.3 yards per play against the Jags, and that unit should perform well against a Colts’ defense that has had a tendency to struggle without Bob Sanders in the lineup (out with ankle injury possible 4-6 weeks).
The Colts gave up 403 yards at 5.8 yards per play to the Jaguars in their first game without Sanders and we believe the Texans will be able to move the ball consistently against this Colts defense.
With Peyton Manning missing all of the pre-season he hasn’t looked like Peyton in the first 3 games of the season averaging just 6.0 yards per pass play. The bye week should help Manning get on track and they are still one of the league’s best passing teams and should right the ship here on Sunday.

Prior to last year's 29-7 win at Jacksonville, Indianapolis had gone OVER in eight straight post-bye week games. The Colts are scoring 33.7 PPG on their own in that span.

Data base research has uncovered several strong technical situations that help solidify our position on the “Over” in this contest. NFL Teams as a road favorite versus a divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent are 15-4-1 Over. NFL Teams as a favorite when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date are 18-4 Over. NFL Teams are 26-8 Over when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak. NFL Teams are 49-17-2 Over when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25.

NFL Teams are 14-4-1 Over as a dog the week after on the road in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 75-44-4 Over after playing as a dog. NFL Teams are 21-6-2 Over at home the week after on the road as a dog in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 12-1-1 Over as a home dog the week after on the road in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 26-7 Over within 3 of pick after playing as a dog. NFL Teams are 13-5 Over as a home dog when facing a team that has an average turnover margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date.

The Colts are 21-6-2 Over on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Colts are 13-3-1 Over on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Colts are 6-0 Over as a road favorite when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date.

The Texans are 10-0 Over when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Texans are 10-1 Over the week after a loss in which they committed no turnovers. The Texans are 7-0 Over at home versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Texans are 12-2 Over at home after playing on the road. The Texans are 10-0 Over versus a divisional opponent. The Texans are 5-0 Over as a home dog after they scored at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average.

Both teams need a win here and we expect this game to be an old-fashioned shoot-out in the Wild West. With strong fundamental, situational and technical support we will make this our 4* NFL Total Game of the Week Selection for Week Five of the NFL Season.

GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Indianapolis / Houston OVER 47



Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday October 5

Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins

Line Origin: BetCris @ 10:24 EST October 2

Grade / Prediction: 3* San Diego / Miami OVER 44.5

Analysis:


The Miami Dolphins host the San Diego Chargers on Sunday afternoon in south Florida. The Dolphins enter this contest off their bye week and a huge upset win on the road against the New England Patriots 38 to 13 the week prior to that bye.

Miami is a much improved team and they have a better than average rushing attack which averages almost 4.5 yards per play. Dolphins QB Chad Pennington was 17 of 20 for 226 yards against the Patriots.

The Dolphins defense looked outstanding against the Patriots but against Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals back in Week Two they torched them for 7.8 yards per play. We believe we will get the in-between version of the Dolphins “D” on Sunday as they face a solid Chargers offensive unit.

The Chargers are explosive on offense and average almost 6.5 yards per play this season. Chargers QB Phillip Rivers has averaged over 8 yards per pass play on the year and has really stepped up his performance while RB Tomlinson has been bothered by an injury to his right toe. It appears Tomlinson is getting back to his old self coming off a solid performance last week versus the Raiders where he had 106 yards rushing and two touchdowns, including a 41-yard scamper, in San Diego's 28-18 win over Oakland on Sunday.

San Diego’s defense has been average at best they are allowing 5.5 yards per play to teams that normally average just over five yards per play. The loss of their defensive leader in Shawne Merriman has definitely had an impact on their performance.

Both teams should be able to move the football and in turn score, we expect this game to go over the posted total. Some may see where this series has gone “Under” the last six meetings well these teams though haven't met since Dec. 11, 2005, when the Dolphins won 23-21 at San Diego so we don’t put a lot of stock in that particular trend.

Our data base research has uncovered strong technical situations that are current and score much higher on the Z-factor for angles and trends. NFL Teams are 16-4-1 Over on the road the week after a straight up win as a favorite in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 41-15-1 Over as a favorite when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. NFL Teams are 30-9-1 Over when they won by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks.

NFL Teams are 34-15-2 Over versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent. NFL Teams are 33-17-2 Over at home when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date.

The Chargers are 10-2 Over as a favorite after playing on the road as a favorite. The Chargers are 14-3-1 Over on the road. The Chargers are 6-0 Over as a road favorite the week after an away game.

The Dolphins are 10-1 Over when facing a team that has forced an average of fewer than four punts per game season-to-date. The Dolphins are 6-1 Over last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game

Strong fundamental, situational and technical support leads to an “Over” in today’s match up.

GRADED PREDICTION: 3* San Diego / Miami OVER 44.5
<!-- / message -->

[Royal_Flush]

NFL 3-0

Arizona Cardinals - Bookie Killer Play (10-1 lifetime with these plays)

[pacesetter]

FOOTBALL JESUS SUNDAY EARLY PLAYS

Dolphins+7
Seahawks+7
Ravens+3

[ymmit2nd]

Power~Plays

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Chargers by 12
Bears by 11
Greenbay by 13

[TheyCallMeMoney]

Beat Your Bookie

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->100 san diego
50 jacksonville
50 dallas
<!-- / message -->

:pope::cripwalk::pope::cripwalk:

[ymmit2nd]

Bill Gallo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4~0 this year in best bets...Giants - 7 1/2

LAST WEEK 9~4
FOR THE YEAR 38~21

COLTS
TITANS
SD
KC
PHILLY
BEARS
ATL
DEN
PATS
BILLS
CINNY
JAGS
SAINTS

[ymmit2nd]

Burns

UNDER packers/falcons

Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers Game Time: 10/5/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: under Look for this afternoon's game to be lower-scoring than most are expecting once again.

Game: Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Game Time: 10/5/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Houston Texans

Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins Game Time: 10/5/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Miami Dolphins

Game: Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals Game Time: 10/5/2008 4:15:00 PM Prediction: under *Non Conference Total of the Month


Game: Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Game Time: 10/5/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Detroit Lions I'll take all the points I can get, but I look for the Lions to rise to the occasion and win this game outright. *NFC North

[ymmit2nd]

PSYCHIC

2 units Houston +3
2 units Denver -3
5 units Arizona -1.5
WISEGUY

DA STICK

5 units Kansas City +10
10 units New England -3
10 units Dallas -16
10 units Houston +3 (underdog of day)
15 units Philadelphia -6
10 unit Teaser of Week
Miami +16.5, Detroit +13.5, Arizona +8.5

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Kelso Clubs

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Chairmans
15 units Jacksonville -5.5

Best Bets
5 units Houston +3
3 units TB/Denver UNDER 47 points
<!-- / message -->

[Cardiff]

As promised, here are the VictoriousPlay recommendations for today...

Soccer Victorious Plays:

GL ALL!!!:pope:

Razor, are you gonna place here those NFL plays, please??? thanks!

mt.gardner77, can you send me a private message with his web/blog?

Obrigado!

[Twisted_One]

Anyone gettin 3G today?

GL

[odds on sports]

Power~Plays

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Chargers by 12
Bears by 11
Greenbay by 13

He has powersweep I know, also seen some of his plays listed as Power Plays or this this a different service? thanks

[sportsman362008]

Law Plays

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Confirmed Sunday Nfl Selections (final)
2% Denver -3
2% Detroit +3 +$105
2% Arizona -1
2% Philadelphia -6

[Jake Gittes]

Two Minute Warning

Best Bets
Investor

Houston +3
Baltimore +3
Miami +7
Detroit +3 1/2
Denver -3
Arizona -1
Cincinnati +16 1/2

Locals Line

TMW 16 - 9 YTD<!-- / message -->

[ymmit2nd]

He has powersweep I know, also seen some of his plays listed as Power Plays or this this a different service? thanks


different service..

[ymmit2nd]

frank patron big play

Den-3

[ymmit2nd]

ESPN's Hank Goldberg (2-4 last week)

Colts -3
Falcons +3.5
Jaguars -4.5
Titans -3
Patriots -3

[sheetplayer]

50cent..any idea which side play of Burns is his top play?

[ymmit2nd]

50cent..any idea which side play of Burns is his top play?


i have to fine out..

[patriots12]

50cent..any idea which side play of Burns is his top play?
Will this help you?

<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td colspan="3">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td valign="top"><input id="pick-1" name="pick-1" value="105003" type="checkbox"></td> <td>**STOP** Burns Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR - EARLY $50.00
Ben Burns' highest rated plays have been MONEY IN THE BANK for years & his HIGHEST RATED SIDE from Week 5 is another absolute MONSTER. In fact, it's the first of his highly renowned Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR releases. If you liked Ben's Non-Conference GOM (Cincy) two weeks ago or his GOM (Tampa) last week, you're going to LOVE this one!</td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td valign="top"><input id="pick-2" name="pick-2" value="105011" type="checkbox"></td> <td>Ben Burns #1 October Non-Conf. TOTAL OF THE MONTH! $40.00
Exactly two weeks ago, Ben Burns released his September Non-Conference Game of the Month, an easy cover (lost by 3 in OT) with +13 Cincinnati. Last Saturday, Ben released his September NCAA Non-Conference GOM and Notre Dame POUNDED Purdue. This Sunday afternoon, he STEPS OUT with his Non-Conference Total of the Month for October. Get on it!</td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td valign="top"><input id="pick-3" name="pick-3" value="105079" type="checkbox"></td> <td>***ALL EARLY*** 3-Game ULTIMATE (2 sides, 1 Total) $45.00
While he cashed his Underdog GOY Ben Burns had to settle for a 1-1-1 split with his "Ultimate Report," with the "push" coming when Purdue missed a PAT. More determined than ever, Burns returns on EARLY Sunday afternoon with a TRIO OF PLAYS from the pros. This POWERFUL REPORT contains TWO SUPER SIDES and one TERRIFIC TOTAL. Get on it!</td></tr></tbody></table>

[ymmit2nd]

Brandon Lang

SUNDAY

20 Dime - Jaguars

5 Dime 6-point teaser - Eagles and Colts/Texans Over

FREE - Cardinals and Steelers/Jags OVER

[sheetplayer]

Will this help you?

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=3>

</TD></TR><TR><TD></TD><TD vAlign=top><INPUT id=pick-1 type=checkbox value=105003 name=pick-1></TD><TD>**STOP** Burns Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR - EARLY $50.00
Ben Burns' highest rated plays have been MONEY IN THE BANK for years & his HIGHEST RATED SIDE from Week 5 is another absolute MONSTER. In fact, it's the first of his highly renowned Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR releases. If you liked Ben's Non-Conference GOM (Cincy) two weeks ago or his GOM (Tampa) last week, you're going to LOVE this one!
</TD></TR><TR><TD></TD><TD vAlign=top><INPUT id=pick-2 type=checkbox value=105011 name=pick-2></TD><TD>Ben Burns #1 October Non-Conf. TOTAL OF THE MONTH! $40.00
Exactly two weeks ago, Ben Burns released his September Non-Conference Game of the Month, an easy cover (lost by 3 in OT) with +13 Cincinnati. Last Saturday, Ben released his September NCAA Non-Conference GOM and Notre Dame POUNDED Purdue. This Sunday afternoon, he STEPS OUT with his Non-Conference Total of the Month for October. Get on it!
</TD></TR><TR><TD></TD><TD vAlign=top><INPUT id=pick-3 type=checkbox value=105079 name=pick-3></TD><TD>***ALL EARLY*** 3-Game ULTIMATE (2 sides, 1 Total) $45.00
While he cashed his Underdog GOY Ben Burns had to settle for a 1-1-1 split with his "Ultimate Report," with the "push" coming when Purdue missed a PAT. More determined than ever, Burns returns on EARLY Sunday afternoon with a TRIO OF PLAYS from the pros. This POWERFUL REPORT contains TWO SUPER SIDES and one TERRIFIC TOTAL. Get on it!
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
its either Hou or Det..im thinking DET as that post has a *NFC then gets cut off...