Service Plays Sunday 10/26/08

[Can'tPickaWinner]

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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Scott Ferrall

NFL Free Picks SAN FRANCISCO -5 to Seattle--The Seahawks are 7-16-1 last 24 games on the road ATS. Seattle has hit the OVER in 4 of last 5 on road. OVER 41

CINCY +9 from Houston--I don't think the Texans can beat anyone by that number. Take the OVER 44.5--Houston over in all 6 games this year

WASHINGTON -7.5 to Detroit--The Lions don't cover against anybody. Detorit 1-5 last 6 ATS at Ford Field and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall ATS

CAROLINA -4 to Arizona--The Panthers have covered the last four meetings in series and are tough at home. Take the OVER 43.5--Cards are 11-4 in OVERS in last 15 games

BALTIMORE -7 to Oakland--You've got to jump on this one. The Ravens won't let the Raiders do anything offensively

[Can'tPickaWinner]

WILD BILL

Ravens -6 1/2 (5 units)
Saints +3 1/2 (5 units)
Bills -1 1/2 (5 units)
Over 45 Falcons-Eagles (5 units)
Redskins -8 (5 units)
Browns +6 1/2 (5 units)
Giants +2 1/2 (5 units)
Over 43 Steelers-Giants (5 units)
Bengals +9 1/2 (5 units)
Over 44 1/2 Bengals-Houston (5 units)
Colts +3 1/2 (5 units)
Over 42 1/2 Colts-Titans (5 units)

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Armvin Sports nfl

10/26/2008 san diego -3

10/26/2008 atlanta 9

[brady1983]

Larry Ness' Week 8 Las Vegas Insider (5-1)

Larry and his "unmatched" contacts combined on yet another Las Vegas Insider win in Wk 7 as buf beat SD (now 5-1 or 83.3% ATS in NFL '08). Larry's NFL Insider is the 1st play he posts each week (Weds) after he and his longtime contacts "break down" the NFL 'card' on Tuesday. "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in on Week 8?


Dallas Cowboys

[chase88]

JEFFERSONSPORTS EARLY RELEASE
TULSA-23 (RELEASED MON NIGHT)
38-18-1 last 57 football 69%
hit 21 of last 26 NFL

NHL 5-4
CFL 4-1

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Hondo

October 24, 2008
Hondo wrested sole control of first place in the standings last week with a solid but unspectacular 8-6 record that relegated Serby and Miss Charleen to the rear-view mirror. So long, kids!

Giants over Steelers: Big Blue get a slight edge because they not only have Earth, Wind and Fire at running back, but they also have Giant Pain In The Butt at wide receiver. Plaxico's part of the new breed of wideouts who not only can catch bombs from the QB, but also throw "F" bombs at the coach.

New York Jets over Chiefs: If the Great Mangenie seemed unfazed by Favre's info-sharing with the Lions, it's only because his NFL weening came at the breast of Bill Belichick, the mother of all cheaters.

Ravens over Raiders: Mike Lupica has renamed his column "Mondays With Mike." Don't be fooled, it's still the same old "Reflections From The Recliner," a weekly, tortuous, knee-jerk gush about the 'Crats.

Saints over Chargers: The Police Athletic League is honoring Joba ChamberlainJoba Chamberlain Dec. 16 at the Grand Hyatt. For those attending, he'll be the guy at the dais drinking from a container wrapped in a paper bag.

Dolphins over Bills: Hillary hit the campaign trail this week for Al Franken and credited him for "taking on the vast right-wing conspiracy before other people even admitted it existed." Nobody took it on before the Pantsuit, who went on The Today Show in 1998 to blame the Bill-Monica scandal on the vast right-wing conspiracy. Sadly, that turned out to part of Bill's vast West-Wing conspiracy.

Bucs over Cowboys: Basic tenets of handicapping dictate that if Romo's a no-go, the 'Boys are a no-play. See how easy this can be when you have Hondo The Handicapper to guide you?

Falcons over Eagles: Joe Biden, in predicting that Obama would face an international crisis within six months of being elected, told everyone to "gird your loins." It's "not going to be an easy ride." Voters must find it comforting to know they soon may have a VP who's looking out for their loins.

Rams over Patriots: Campaign catch phrases have ranged from "Drill, Baby, Drill" to "Jobs, Baby, Jobs." Now, with McCain's poll numbers trending lower than Joe The Plumber's pants and a Barack presidency seemingly looming, it might be time for a new one: "Gird, Baby, Gird."

Panthers over Cardinals: A Michigan man was arrested this week for receiving "sexual favors" from a vacuum at a car wash. Yikes! Now there's a guy who should be girding his loins.

Lions over Redskins: The car wash freak's lawyer is insisting his client get a jury of his peers, which likely would include Peter "Petey Perv" Cook, Duchovny, CNN's Richard "The 'Nad Roper" Quest, Larry "The Toe Tapper" Craig, as well as several assorted, everyday, run-of-the-mill, subway flasherbators.

Browns over Jaguars: According to a recent study, drinking coffee can shrink the size of women's breasts. All together now, men: Ban coffee now!

49ers over Seahawks: It's The Stink vs. Stench Bowl '08. The New Coach Theory gives Stink the edge.

Bengals over Texans: Bengwad fans reportedly have started wearing bags over their heads. One question: What took so long? One suggestion: Wear two in case the first one falls off.

Titans over Colts: Viewers reportedly are turning away from the nightly news by the hundreds of thousands at all three networks compared to last year. Evidently, the public is becoming increasingly repulsed by the Anchors For Obama News Cabal.

BEST BETS: Bucs, Bengals, 49ers.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Doug Williams

Bucs (+2) OVER Dallas (-2) -- This will officially be the week that Dallas implodes. Go with the "underdog" Bucs against a Romo-less Cowboys team.

Eagles (-9) OVER Atlanta (+9) -- Donovan Mcnabb routinely plays out of his mind after bye weeks -- factor in a returning Kevin Curtis, a rested and healthy Brian Westbrook and DeSean Jackson...that's a lot of offensive fire power. Their D is also healthy, and looking to eat up Matt Ryan.

Pats (-7.5) Over Rams (+7.5) -- Don't let the Rams fool you. They aren't good - Steven Jackson has just had some monster games. I like the Pats to explode offensively two weeks in a row. Moss hasn't quit yet, and he'll walk over this weak secondary.

Panthers (-4) OVER Arizona Cardinals (+4) -- The Panthers have given up 16 points and scored 80 at home in last 3 games. Julius Peppers is freakin' back! I like the Cards, but I don't think they'll hang for an entire game with with a surprisingly scary Carolina team.
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

NFL Week 7 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (12-8 = 60.0%)

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

One of our offshore contacts had this game circled early in the week. Early Sharp money on Miami pushed the line from Miami +2 down to Miami +1 -- even with the Public all over first-place Buffalo. With almost 85% of all bets coming in on Buffalo, you would think someone had Monday's sports page already!

In addition to "Betting Against the Public" and taking the same side as "Sharps" -- we like this game for a variety of other reasons:

Miami is a home dog -- and is definitely a "live dog" in a game that is expected to be close.

This is a game between two divisional rivals.

We'll sell Buffalo at a "high" after last week's convincing 23-14 win over a solid San Diego squad.

We'll buy Miami at a "low" after a 2 touchdown loss to Baltimore.

Miami Dolphins +1.5 (SIA)

St. Louis Rams vs New England

The Public is jumping on the Patriot bandwagon again -- after their impressive performance on Monday Night Football (MNF) against Denver. More than 3 out of every 4 bets are coming in on the Patriots. The line opened at NE -7 and -7.5 -- but the steady pounding of bets on the Pats has started to make the line rise.

We'll "Bet Against the Public" and sell the Pats at a recent high after their big MNF win. The Rams should have some renewed confidence after their win over Dallas last week. The line for this game is rising, so shop around for the best line you can get. Currently, St. Louis +7.5 at "plus vig" is widely available with some +9's around but at "expensive negative vig."

St. Louis Rams +7.5

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

This is a classic "new kid in town" versus the "old gunslinger" match-up. Tennessee brings the league's only undefeated record into this game: a sparkling 6-0 record. Indy has been struggling and limps in at 3-3. The Colts have been showing signs of their championship form, but they lost again last week. The Public is leaning to the Titans, with about 60% of the bets taking Tennessee.

The line opened at Tennessee -3.5 but Public money has moved the line to the key number of Tenn -4. We like this extra value in a key divisional game. How often do you get a team like the Colts plus more than a field goal? We'll take the points on the "old gunslinger" and buy an underperforming Indy team that suffered a big loss last week versus Green Bay.

Indianapolis Colts +4

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (12-8 = 60.0%)

Miami Dolphins +1.5 (SIA)
St. Louis Rams +7.5
Indianapolis Colts +4
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Chip Chirimbes

AFC GOY Miami

[uscmd]

Hilton contest with favorites of top 10 and top 20.

Last few weeks there hasn't been a real "favorite" among the top 10 or top 20.

However this week 7 of the top 10 took Bal, 6 took Pit. Even more amazing, 14 of the top 20 took Bal. And 11 of the top 20 took Pit.



Top 10

Bal 7
Pit 6
TB and Car 4

top 20

Bal 14
Pit 11
TB 6
Mia 6






Selection # of Times Selected
BAL -6.5 141
PIT -2.5 100
CAR -4.5 94
BUF -1 91
TB +3 89
PHI -9 71
NYJ -12.5 70
MIA +1 69
ATL +9 67
NE -7 66
SF -4.5 66
TEN -4 65
JAX -7 62
NO +3.5 58
IND +4 58
CIN +9.5 57
DAL -3 56
ARI +4.5 53
DET +7.5 49
NYG +2.5 48
CLE +7 47
WAS -7.5 39
SD -3.5 37
STL +7 36
KC +12.5 30
SEA +4.5 29
OAK +6.5 22
HOU -9.5 20


Top ** Contestants
Contestant Name Wins Loss Ties Sel1 Sel2 Sel3 Sel4 Sel5

THE BETTING DOCTOR.COM 26 7 2 BAL KC MIA ARI PIT
FEZZIK . 25 9 1 BAL NO NYJ TB NE
LONESTAR COBRA . 24 10 1 BUF TB CAR CLE PIT
DURBIFY . 24 10 1 NO CAR JAX PIT CIN
LEO SHAFTO . 24 10 1 BAL NYJ TB SF CIN
KING OF CRUNK . 24 10 1 BAL MIA CAR PIT TEN
BRYAN ATHEY . 24 11 0 PHI ARI PIT SEA IND
NOAHS ARC . 24 9 2 BAL MIA TB PIT TEN
VEGASPORTSLINE .COM 23 12 0 BAL NO NYJ STL JAX
MORLEY THE FIFTEENTH 23 11 1 BAL DAL NE CAR DET
LONDO . 23 12 0 BAL NO NYJ TB NE
MONEY LINE . 23 12 0 MIA PHI PIT SEA HOU
MICHAEL MAROTTA 23 12 0 BAL NO ARI DET JAX
ERWINS . 23 10 2 MIA DET CLE PIT CIN
THREE OUT OF FIVE 23 12 0 BAL BUF CAR PIT SF
THESPORTSPAGE. COM 23 12 0 BAL ATL CAR JAX TEN
STYLIN' . 23 11 1 KC ARI CLE CIN IND
REVEREND RIGHT . 23 11 1 BAL NO MIA TB CLE
THE CHOSEN ONE . 22 13 0 BAL DAL PIT SEA CIN
DR.B AND DR. SAUCE 22 12 1 BAL BUF DAL JAX PIT
WOOD . 22 11 2 MIA TB PHI NYG TEN
WILLIAM CLARKSON 22 12 1 BUF TB ATL CAR PIT
MACKENZIES . 22 12 1 BUF TB ATL CAR PIT
SLICK 50 . 22 13 0 BAL KC BUF ATL WAS
FRANKB22 . 22 12 1 BAL BUF CAR CIN IND
SCOTTY DOESN'T KNOW 22 13 0 BAL MIA STL CIN IND
STRAY BULLETT . 22 12 1 BAL MIA PHI CLE NYG
BARTHOLOMEW SIMPSON 22 11 2 MIA CAR CLE HOU IND
RONIN . 22 12 1 NO TB CLE PIT IND
BUCKEYE702 . 22 11 2 BAL NO NYJ BUF PHI
COLLOSSEUM 1 . 22 13 0 BAL BUF PHI NE TEN
IT'S CLOBBER ING TIME 22 12 1 BAL NYJ MIA PIT CIN
CAROLINE . 22 12 1 BAL DAL PHI JAX CIN
MR. ROGER . 21 13 1 BAL BUF WAS NYG TEN
ACK ACK . 21 14 0 OAK BUF STL DET CLE
THE WATER BUFFALOES 21 13 1 BAL CAR JAX SF TEN
AARDVARK . 21 13 1 KC BUF ATL WAS CLE
SHORELINE SCRUBS 21 14 0 NO STL CAR CLE TEN
RICO . 21 13 1 BAL PHI CAR JAX PIT
KSHP . 21 13 1 SD DAL PHI STL IND
BLUE TEAM . 21 14 0 NO NYJ PHI DET CIN
ZOESBEGEEZER DAD 21 14 0 BAL BUF JAX NYG TEN
COPERNICUS . 21 13 1 BAL MIA CAR PIT TEN
A AND L PICK'S . 21 13 1 NYJ MIA ATL WAS IND
ROY WILSON 21 12 2 BAL NYJ TB ARI CIN
ABEL . 21 13 1 NYJ TB NE ARI JAX
MRVEGASWINS .COM 21 13 1 BAL NYJ TB ATL TEN
SLIM TIM . 21 14 0 BAL NO TB ATL PIT
LYNXLY . 21 13 1 BAL NO NYJ TB NE
GAL GUSSO . 21 13 1 BAL MIA TB CAR PIT
SQUAREPANTS . 20 14 1 BAL SD DAL DET HOU
AYE . 20 14 1 OAK SD MIA TB PIT
VIEWFROMVEGAS .COM 20 14 1 BUF ARI DET CLE NYG
3G-SPORTS . 20 14 1 BAL MIA DAL ARI SEA
NATA'S . 20 15 0 BAL BUF PHI SEA CIN
DAVID MILLER . 20 13 2 BAL NO NYJ TB PIT
JAMES BROWN . 20 14 1 TB ATL NE ARI IND
FIRST CLASS MIKE 20 14 1 BAL NYJ BUF NE CIN
HULA BOY . 20 13 2 BAL NO CAR JAX PIT
SHAKE AND BAKE . 20 15 0 OAK DAL DET NYG SF
PREDICTEM.COM . 20 14 1 BAL NYG SEA HOU TEN
CHOPPER . 20 14 1 BAL BUF ATL CAR WAS
RELENTLESS PURSUIT 20 14 1 KC CAR CLE PIT HOU
DACHEETAH JAIALAI 20 14 1 NO NYJ STL ARI IND
FRANK GAUDIANE . 20 14 1 BAL PHI ARI PIT SF
ITALIAN ICE . 20 15 0 BUF PHI STL CAR SF
REDMEN . 20 14 1 BAL TB PHI SF CIN
YOU'RE NOT THAT GOOD 20 15 0 NO NYJ PHI SF TEN
888 IS ENOUGH . 20 15 0 SD DET CLE PIT IND
BACKDOORED . 20 13 2 MIA PHI CAR JAX PIT
BOBBY BABOWSKI . 20 14 1 BAL MIA DAL NE IND
J&B ENTERPRISE . 20 14 1 NYJ ATL CAR PIT TEN
DOUGIEFRESH . 20 14 1 NYJ DAL CLE SEA IND
VIP WINNERS . 20 14 1 SD DAL CAR DET CLE
VEGAS.RUNNER & MARCO DANGELO 20 14 1 OAK NO MIA NYG HOU
TONY SALINAS . 20 14 1 MIA ARI DET PIT CIN
OTIS . 20 14 1 NYJ BUF TB JAX TEN
PLUMB KRAZY . 20 14 1 BUF ATL NE JAX TEN
HUSKER NATION . 20 14 1 BUF ATL CAR JAX HOU
HOUSTON 1222 . 20 14 1 NO MIA DAL STL SEA
ROY WILSON 20 13 2 BAL NYJ TB SF CIN
L.V. HUSTL3RS . 20 13 2 BAL BUF PHI SF IND
BIGAL.COM . 20 15 0 NO KC DAL PIT CIN
UAREALL DONKEYS 20 14 1 SD BUF TB STL CIN
THEACCOUNTANTS . 20 13 2 BAL NYJ CAR PIT SF
COLLOSSEUM 2 . 20 14 1 BAL BUF NE CAR TEN
REYROB . 19 16 0 SD BUF ARI JAX PIT
D MILL . 19 14 2 NO NYJ TB ARI PIT
THE FAR SIDE . 19 14 2 BAL NYJ PHI CAR WAS
ROUGHING THE PICKER 19 14 2 NO DAL PHI JAX CIN
THE MOST . 19 15 1 BAL BUF PHI JAX TEN
RUSSIAN 1 . 19 14 2 BAL NO NYJ TB ARI
TEAM WILLIS . 19 15 1 BAL SD NE CAR CIN
MISTER P . 19 16 0 DAL PHI NE ARI IND
TGCAC . 19 16 0 BAL KC MIA PIT SF
TOO OLD PROS . 19 15 1 KC CAR CLE PIT HOU
THE SHARKS . 19 14 2 BAL NYJ DAL PIT CIN
MONKEY . 19 15 1 OAK SD BUF PHI SEA
BUSKY . 19 15 1 MIA PHI PIT SF CIN
NIAGA2991 . 19 15 1 BAL SD MIA CAR SF
DON JUAN OF THE YUKON 19 16 0 BAL TB PIT SF TEN
MADDUX SP . 19 15 1 BAL NO NYJ TB ARI
UGLY KID JOE . 19 16 0 NE ARI DET JAX SF
LEXI . 19 14 2 TB PHI STL ARI SEA
KCEXTREME . 19 14 2 BAL NYJ PHI CAR PIT
ABCBAIL . 19 16 0 BAL SD BUF JAX PIT
MAC SHANE . 19 15 1 BUF ATL ARI SF TEN
DR. KING . 19 15 1 BUF NE CAR NYG TEN
WIRE TO WIRE . 19 16 0 SD PHI NE DET NYG
FROGTOWN SPORTS 19 16 0 BAL NO ARI PIT TEN
BIG ANGIE . 19 15 1 BAL ATL DET JAX NYG
RED RYDER . 19 16 0 NYJ BUF DAL PIT TEN
FRANKIE . 19 15 1 BAL MIA PHI PIT SF
MATTHEW BORKOWSKI 19 15 1 BUF ATL PIT SF TEN
DEREK & THE DOMO 19 16 0 BAL NYJ TB NYG TEN
RAM66 . 19 14 2 BAL BUF ATL CAR CLE
MK SPORTS . 19 15 1 NYJ BUF NE WAS SF
PIGLET . 19 15 1 NO BUF PHI ARI PIT
FRAT BOYS . 19 15 1 NO MIA TB CLE IND
PB&K . 19 14 2 BAL PHI NE WAS SF
GG . 19 16 0 NO TB STL CAR WAS
INSIDESPORTS VIEW 19 16 0 BAL BUF ATL NE CAR
IBELIEVE . 19 15 1 OAK MIA DAL NE HOU
FUNHOUSE . 19 16 0 BAL PHI ARI NYG IND
ROGER HARRIS . 19 15 1 BUF PHI CAR CLE CIN
SUNDOWN . 19 15 1 BAL NO NYJ TB NE
MALSOR . 19 15 1 BAL NYJ MIA PHI DET
BET ON ME . 19 14 2 KC TB PHI CAR CIN
FAT SQUARED . 19 15 1 MIA PHI CLE PIT IND
JOJO . 19 15 1 BAL TB ATL CAR PIT
FGH . 19 15 1 TB CAR DET PIT SEA
TAYLORANDSADIE . 19 16 0 NYJ BUF NE SF HOU
EAGLES FLY . 19 16 0 BUF ARI DET PIT TEN
THE PRETZEL . 19 15 1 DAL STL NYG CIN IND
VIDAL . 19 15 1 ATL NE CAR JAX PIT
TCHGOLD . 19 16 0 KC MIA DAL JAX IND
PHILADELPHIA FREEDOM 19 15 1 NO NE DET PIT IND
BRISKI . 18 17 0 DAL ARI WAS CIN IND
WESTCHESTER MECHANICS 18 15 2 BAL NYJ BUF TB ARI
BLUE THUNDER . 18 16 1 BAL TB ATL SEA TEN
JUSTPRO FOOTBALL.COM 18 16 1 BAL MIA CAR WAS TEN
GAMBLING RATS . 18 15 2 MIA DAL PHI PIT IND
SEVEN RED . 18 16 1 NYJ TB ATL ARI IND
RUSSIAN 2 . 18 15 2 BAL NO NYJ TB SF
JARHEAD . 18 16 1 NO TB ATL NE SEA
SHARK SANDWICH . 18 17 0 BAL BUF ARI WAS TEN
JAXTERSPIX.NET . 18 16 1 SD MIA DAL NE NYG
BRAZ . 18 16 1 NO MIA TB DET IND
DASH RIPROCK . 18 17 0 NYJ ARI PIT SF CIN
TOUCHDOWN . 18 16 1 BUF NE CAR JAX PIT
G. ABREGO . 18 16 1 BAL BUF ATL CAR SF
TREE TOP TIPS . 18 16 1 BAL NYJ CLE HOU TEN
SCOTT STOWELL . 18 16 1 BAL BUF DAL HOU TEN
JOHNNYBO.COM . 18 17 0 BUF TB NE WAS JAX
BUSHWHACK . 18 16 1 MIA DAL PHI NE SEA
DOS AMIGOS . 18 16 1 BAL PHI NE CLE CIN
ZAARNAK . 18 17 0 NYJ BUF CAR PIT TEN
CONTINENTAL SPORTS SERVICE 18 16 1 BAL NO BUF PHI WAS
OKWATNAK . 18 17 0 BAL ATL NE CAR TEN
IONE'S SON . 18 16 1 KC NE NYG SEA CIN
TIGER JAM . 18 15 2 BAL NYJ PHI SF IND
MAYO MCCUTCHEON 18 16 1 MIA DAL ATL NYG TEN
BIG E . 18 16 1 OAK MIA ARI SEA IND
KM SPORTS . 18 16 1 NO MIA ATL ARI IND
ROB DEVLIN . 18 15 2 BAL CAR WAS JAX NYG
TONY SMITH . 18 15 2 DAL CAR JAX PIT TEN
BLUEHORSESHOE SPORTS.COM 18 16 1 BAL NYJ BUF WAS IND
ROCKSOLIDPICKS .COM 18 15 2 CAR JAX NYG SEA CIN
STEVE ARNTZEN . 18 16 1 TB ATL NE JAX SF
EXEC . 18 16 1 OAK MIA DAL JAX SF
SIMPLY THE BEST 18 15 2 NYJ BUF NE WAS NYG
MAX 1 . 18 16 1 BAL BUF NE CLE PIT
PIZZA MAN . 18 16 1 BAL BUF PHI CAR DET
RWM . 18 16 1 NYJ TB CAR WAS PIT
CHAPPY . 18 16 1 BAL SD JAX NYG SF
GORDON GEE . 18 16 1 BAL TB CAR JAX SF
MAXPESCATORI .COM 18 16 1 BUF TB WAS CIN TEN
BOZO'S DEAD . 18 16 1 MIA DAL DET PIT CIN
RBSPORTS . 18 17 0 NO STL ARI CLE HOU
BROCKTON BOXER 18 17 0 DAL PHI NE JAX CIN
GRAYBEARDS . 18 15 2 BAL SD ATL JAX SF
SILVER FOX . 18 17 0 MIA ATL STL CAR CLE
LANCAN . 18 16 1 OAK NYJ TB NE CLE
ANGRY GOATS . 18 10 2 MIA ATL ARI PIT SF
PREPAY . 17 17 1 SD MIA ARI SEA IND
DOUBLE R . 17 18 0 BUF DAL PHI STL CIN
HOOSIERS . 17 18 0 BAL NYJ ATL CIN IND
R2K2 . 17 16 2 BAL NO WAS CIN TEN
THINKIN LIKE BINKIN 17 17 1 BAL MIA PHI STL CLE
ROUNDERS . 17 16 2 DAL NE CAR JAX IND
MASTER OF CHOOS 17 17 1 OAK MIA JAX SEA CIN
PURPLE AND GOLD 17 18 0 SD KC MIA CAR CIN
ANTHONY GEORGE 2 17 18 0 KC ATL STL DET PIT
LAVANG . 17 17 1 TB ATL ARI JAX NYG
POLSERITA . 17 17 1 BUF ATL STL NYG TEN
GLUTEN FREE . 17 17 1 BAL NYJ TB NE HOU
JAS . 17 12 1 BAL NYJ CAR JAX SF
DADDY N DOUGHNUTS 17 18 0 BAL NYJ PHI NE NYG
UPON FURTHER REVIEW 17 18 0 BUF TB PHI WAS TEN
RAINBOW WARRIOR 17 17 1 NYJ PHI CAR SF TEN
MICHAEL PIRANIO 17 18 0 OAK KC STL DET CIN
GA . 17 17 1 BUF TB STL PIT IND
TEAM FUBAR . 17 18 0 BAL ATL WAS SF TEN
DR. LOU . 17 18 0 BAL BUF ARI JAX NYG
SUNDAY NIGHT . 17 16 2 BAL NYJ BUF CAR SF
ET . 17 16 2 BUF DET CLE PIT SF
TONY ZZZ . 17 18 0 DET JAX PIT SF TEN
ESQUIRE SPORTS . 17 18 0 OAK KC TB ATL SEA
JJFL . 17 17 1 BAL NYJ PHI CAR TEN
BUDLADY . 17 17 1 BAL KC CAR WAS SF
E.M.H.J.F.C. . 17 17 1 NO DAL ARI JAX PIT
"638 FOREVER" . 17 16 2 TB PHI CAR JAX PIT
TIMBUKTU . 17 18 0 NO ATL NE WAS PIT
ARTHUR GOLTZ . 17 18 0 BUF DAL PHI WAS TEN
22 PURPLE ROSE . 17 18 0 SD DAL PHI CAR PIT
BEYOND CAPPING .COM 17 12 1 BAL TB ATL CAR CLE
BLMK . 17 17 1 DAL NE ARI WAS PIT
LONG HAIR . 17 17 1 SD NYJ DAL CAR JAX
NO COMPLAINTS NO EXCUSES 17 18 0 PHI NE DET JAX IND
BLSSD FLISH TRMNTD 17 16 2 SD NYJ PHI NE CLE
"THE FRONZ" . 17 17 1 SD KC DET JAX CIN
WHITE RAIN . 17 17 1 BAL NYJ BUF CAR TEN
JHC III . 16 19 0 NYJ ATL NYG HOU TEN
HOLY COWS . 16 19 0 NYJ BUF NE WAS CLE
SEVEN GOLD . 16 18 1 SD TB ATL ARI PIT
PAPILLON . 16 18 1 SD BUF NYG SF IND
JOHN KWAN . 16 19 0 BAL BUF TB ATL NYG
DOCTOR G . 16 17 2 BUF TB CAR DET PIT
PSI . 16 19 0 BAL NO NYJ NYG SEA
LOCKSVILLE.COM . 16 18 1 BAL ARI PIT CIN IND
RICKJSPORTS PLAYS.COM 16 17 2 NO MIA ARI CLE SEA
DETROIT STARS . 16 19 0 MIA TB JAX NYG IND
PR SPORTS . 16 17 2 BAL DAL STL JAX IND
BEE TEE'S S.A.C. 16 18 1 BAL SD NYJ BUF DAL
H20 FIVE 0 . 16 19 0 KC MIA NE CAR PIT
BLONDIE 89103 . 16 17 2 BUF TB WAS SF TEN
BIG FIVE . 16 18 1 DET CLE NYG CIN IND
IRISH SAMOA . 16 18 1 BAL NO CAR SF TEN
G. D. . 16 17 2 ATL STL WAS JAX PIT
54 PAGAN . 16 19 0 BAL CAR DET CIN TEN
BIG PICTURE . 16 18 1 MIA TB SF CIN TEN
BIG LIB . 16 17 2 NO TB DET PIT TEN
BUCKY BADGER . 16 18 1 NO TB ATL CAR JAX
SRG . 16 18 1 BAL TB JAX SF TEN
KJW . 16 18 1 BAL SD ATL ARI PIT
AL THE SLY . 16 18 1 ATL ARI NYG SF IND
PUT THE MONEY IN THE BAG 16 18 1 NO NE DET JAX NYG
GRANT LINCOLN . 16 18 1 OAK KC PHI STL IND
PRINCESS HAIRY WARTS 16 18 1 SD PHI CAR SF TEN
PREGAME.COM . 16 19 0 TB PHI NE CAR TEN
SQUAREPANTS II . 16 17 2 BAL BUF ATL DET HOU
BLACK JACK . 16 18 1 ARI CLE PIT SF IND
MY BEST PICKS . 16 18 1 OAK SD DAL DET CIN
BROKEN ARROW . 16 18 1 BAL ATL NE CAR IND
TK . 16 18 1 BAL NYJ PHI NYG SF
EDGELINE . 16 18 1 BAL MIA TB DET PIT
THE SANDMAN . 16 18 1 TB STL ARI DET TEN
DR. DAVIS . 16 17 2 NO MIA DAL PHI ARI
BUCCANEER MIKE 16 17 2 KC TB DET CLE SF
130 BRIXX . 15 19 1 BUF PHI NE CAR NYG
JERSEY RED . 15 19 1 ATL ARI DET CLE CIN
SPITGAME.COM . 15 19 1 BAL NYJ BUF PIT CIN
ALIAS SPORTS . 15 19 1 OAK BUF DAL DET PIT
MITSU-SAN . 15 20 0 SD DAL CLE PIT SF
O.C. DOOLEY . 15 20 0 OAK MIA CLE HOU IND
R. . 15 19 1 NO KC TB ATL SEA
MAGIC MAN + EL DIABLO 15 19 1 BAL NYJ MIA PHI SF
MAD ANM . 15 20 0 BAL NYJ BUF TB NYG
THREE AMIGOS . 15 19 1 BAL TB ATL NYG TEN
SPARKS . 15 20 0 BAL BUF PHI NE CAR
RIVRATS . 15 20 0 BAL NYJ BUF PHI CIN
BALD EAGLE . 15 18 2 DAL CAR JAX PIT TEN
MCLOVIN . 15 20 0 BAL NO NYJ TB SF
J.R. A.R. . 15 19 1 BUF PHI STL ARI SF
COMMISSIONER AND THE GURU 15 19 1 NO BUF ATL CLE PIT
THE EAGLE . 15 19 1 MIA TB CAR WAS HOU
DMACK SPORTS . 15 19 1 TB PHI NE CAR SF
SULLY SPORTS . 15 20 0 OAK KC CLE PIT CIN
CODY . 15 20 0 OAK KC MIA CAR CIN
DR. EVIL . 15 18 2 MIA NE CAR DET PIT
HAMPTONS . 15 18 2 BUF DAL NE CAR TEN
BROOKLYN DODGERS 15 20 0 PHI JAX NYG SEA IND
MOTOR CITY MIKE 15 18 2 BAL BUF TB CAR SF
FAST EDDIE SPORTS 15 19 1 BAL KC MIA PIT IND
TAKE OUT THE TRASH 15 19 1 NO NE DET JAX NYG
BUDMAN . 15 19 1 TB JAX PIT SF TEN
MAX 2 . 15 19 1 BAL NE CLE SF IND
OCEAN RAY . 15 19 1 BAL NO BUF ATL PIT
ICEMAN . 15 19 1 NO DAL STL PIT SF
DIAR . 15 20 0 BAL PHI JAX PIT SF
ARI YAZ . 15 19 1 BAL BUF PHI CAR TEN
TOANM . 15 19 1 BAL NYJ BUF TB NYG
BARCELONA . 15 14 1 BAL BUF ATL PIT SEA
STRETCH . 15 19 1 BAL MIA CLE NYG IND
ICEMAN . 15 19 1 NO MIA DAL PIT CIN
AMNESIA . 15 18 2 MIA JAX NYG SF IND
UNDERAGE GYMNASTS 15 20 0 BUF DAL NE CAR JAX
SLY STONE . 14 19 2 BAL SD DAL STL PIT
BRUNO'S BOYS . 14 21 0 BAL TB WAS CLE TEN
ANCIENT CHINESE SECRET 14 19 2 KC TB CAR DET PIT
ABI . 14 19 2 OAK TB SEA CIN IND
JUMPIN JACK DOYLE 14 20 1 NO BUF ATL WAS CLE
HOWZIT . 14 15 1 ATL STL DET CLE CIN
HIT HIM IN THE FOOT 14 20 1 NO PHI NE ARI PIT
ON A MISSION . 14 19 2 MIA DAL NE CAR NYG
WIN BIG . 14 20 1 DAL NE CAR JAX SEA
BIG TONY . 14 20 1 OAK SD STL SF TEN
LOU-T . 14 15 1 MIA PHI WAS PIT SF
BREAKBOOKIES HEART 14 21 0 MIA DAL PHI JAX IND
M + K TEAM . 14 20 1 BAL KC DAL NE CAR
BLUTO . 14 21 0 BUF DAL CAR NYG IND
GETHEMONEY08 . 14 19 2 SD NYJ DAL NE PIT
DAVE'S NOT HERE 14 20 1 BAL PHI CAR DET PIT
DENALI 6293 . 14 20 1 BAL TB NE JAX NYG
ROCK ON RIDERS . 14 20 1 NYJ BUF TB ARI WAS
LOGAN'S HEROES . 14 20 1 NO PHI STL CAR CIN
HIGHROLLERS TEAM.COM 14 19 2 MIA TB STL WAS NYG
ADAMWINS.COM . 13 17 0 No Ticket
WILL PICKEM . 13 21 1 TB ATL CAR SF CIN
REYMAX . 13 20 2 NYJ BUF TB WAS SF
QUASIMODO . 13 20 2 SD BUF WAS SF HOU
UPSET SPECIAL . 13 21 1 KC STL DET PIT IND
ANTHONY GEORGE 1 13 21 1 KC ATL STL DET PIT
TBALL . 13 21 1 No Ticket
SUPER MIKE . 13 21 1 BAL TB ATL STL NYG
CINEMA MATT . 13 21 1 BAL NO ARI WAS CIN
THE ULTIMATE DUO 13 21 1 OAK SD NYJ MIA ATL
JOHN SINGLETON MOSBY 13 20 2 BAL NO TB ATL IND
DESPERATE HOUSEDOGS 13 22 0 NO BUF TB ARI DET
NAPKIN NIGHTS . 13 21 1 BAL KC DAL ATL CIN
ASIS . 12 18 0 No Ticket
BIG JAY SPORTS . 12 18 0 No Ticket
EASTERNASSASIN S.COM 12 21 2 BAL SD TB CAR WAS
BOGA DAVE . 12 22 1 MIA STL DET CLE CIN
KYONG . 12 22 1 OAK ATL STL CLE IND
DOUBLEDAWG . 12 13 0 BAL NYJ BUF PIT SF
SEAN LENAHAN . 12 22 1 NO BUF ATL CAR NYG
INTRIGUE SPORTSCAP 12 18 0 SD ATL NE JAX TEN
ADAM ZINN. . 12 22 1 SD MIA NE CAR IND
CHINO . 12 22 1 BAL NYJ TB HOU TEN
EZ-PAKE . 12 22 1 ATL CAR DET SEA TEN
MABEL . 9 25 1 KC MIA DAL ATL NE
THE FAMOUS JOHNNY C. 9 11 0 No Ticket
JB ROCKS . 8 16 1 SD ARI SEA CIN IND
VALENTINO . 8 7 0 No Ticket
GATORSKINS . 8 26 1 MIA TB ARI PIT IND
DANNY MONACO . 7 22 1 No Ticket
THE ROUNDERS . 7 16 2 No Ticket
MUSHROOM STAMPER 4 6 0 No Ticket
BLINGERS BALLERS 2 3 0 No Ticket
Top ** Contestants - Selection Recap
Selection # of Times Selected
BAL -6.5 142
PIT -2.5 101
CAR -4.5 94
BUF -1 91
TB +3 90
NYJ -12.5 71
PHI -9 71
MIA +1 70
ATL +9 67
NE -7 66
SF -4.5 66
TEN -4 65
JAX -7 62
NO +3.5 59
CIN +9.5 59
IND +4 58
DAL -3 57
ARI +4.5 54
DET +7.5 49
NYG +2.5 48
CLE +7 47
WAS -7.5 39
SD -3.5 37
STL +7 36
KC +12.5 30
SEA +4.5 29
OAK +6.5 22
HOU-9.5 20

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Wunderdog

Game: Arizona at Carolina (Sunday 10/26 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Carolina -3.5 (-110)
<!--p-->
I was all over Arizona in their last game, predicting the upset over Dallas. This week however I am going to fade them. Why? For starters, they are on the road. The Cards are turning into one of the league's best at home, but on the road they don't produce at the same level. Last season they 2-6 on the road but 6-2 at home. This year they are 3-0 SU and ATS at home, outscoring opponents 102-51. That includes wins over the Cowboys and the 5-1 Buffalo Bills. But, on the road, they are 1-2 SU and ATS, getting outscored by an average of score of 25-31. And, those games were against mediocre opponents (San Francisco, Washington and the Jets). This team is just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games as underdogs. Secondly, they are playing Carolina. The Panthers have emerged as a force in 2008. They are 5-2 having posted wins against San Diego, Chicago and New Orleans. They have not lost against the spread in seven straight home games. In their four home games this season, they have outscored their opponents 108-33! The Cards have lost 21 of their last 29 games ATS following two straight wins. I like Carolina here at home, laying the points.

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
triple-dime bet210 PHI -9.0 (-110) BetUS vs 209 ATL
Analysis:
*****5 UNIT NFL GAME OF THE YEAR*****



When I give out a Game of the Year selection, it's always on a team I feel is in the best spot of any throughout the season. As I look over the remainder of the NFL schedule, I don't see a situation that will benefit a team more than the one the Philadelphia Eagles are in this Sunday.



First, let's start with coming off the bye week. Some coaches just know to prepare their team to play after a bye and no one does it any better than Andy Reid. The Eagles are a perfect 9-0 under Reid coming off a bye week. I also like to look at how a team goes into their bye and the Eagles are coming off a strong performance in San Fran. Also, I've been told by Eagles Insiders that even though the team is currently in last place in the NFC East, they believe with the Cowboys having problems and the Redskins still employing a young quarterback that they they are the best team in the division.



Another reason to like the Eagles here is because they are getting healthy at the right time. Brian Westbrook and WR Kevin Curtis will both be playing on Sunday, giving Donovan McNabb and the Eagles their top two offensive weapons on the field together for the first time all year. Also, receiver Reggie Brown is finally back to full strength as well, making this the first time McNabb has had a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal.



Finally, I think the Eagles have the perfect opponent coming off the bye week. The Falcons are a nice surprise but they are a team you bet at home and fade on the road. They did beat a depleted Packers team on the road but were handled easily by both the Bucs and Panthers. Matt Ryan's numbers are significantly worse away from home. Ryan has a 59.2 passer rating on the road compared with a 121.9 mark at home. And now defensive coordinator Jim Johnson has had an extra week to come up with a bevy of new blitz packages to throw at the rookie. Here is what safety Brian Dawkins had to say about this week's gameplan:



"We're not going to stop. You may get us every once in a while, but we're not going to stop, so you have to be able to maintain that same cool that you were on that one play that you got us on the other 20 blitzes that we throw at you."



I expect the Eagles defense to harass the young Ryan and force him into turning the ball over. Remember one thing: Asante Samuel, along with Champ Bailey, is the best CB in the NFL when it comes to jumping a route. I expect him to have a big game against Ryan.



Atlanta has been outgained in all 3 road games 373-291 with Ryan passing for 170 ypg (50%). They now face an Eagles defense that is 2nd in the NFL with 21 sacks & allowing just 91 (3.5) ypg rushing. In other words, the Falcons will be forced to pass and Philly is going to feed off that and eat Ryan alive.



So, those are the reasons why I made this my NFL Game of the Year. I expect something like a 37-6 Eagles win, so hopefully this one will be over early and you can all sit back and relax

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 10/26/08 - 4:05 PMStephen Nover | NFL Total
double-dime bet228 HOU / 227 CIN Over 44.5 Bodog
Analysis:
Bengas-Texans Over 44.5

Analysis: The Houston Texans just may be the best 'over' team in the NFL with a potent offense and weak defense. This has resulted in the Texans going 'over' eight straight times, including all six games this season.

The 'over' has cashed 70 percent of the time during the past 17 instances in which the Texans played a team with a winning percentage of less than 33 percent.

The Texans are fifth in offense. They've scored at least 27 points in each of their past four games and should have no problem reaching that figure against a Bengals defense now missing one of their better players, linebacker Keith Rivers.

Andre Johnson has played better than any other wide receiver during the past two weeks and the Texans now have a solid 1-2 running punch with a healthy veteran Ahman Green joining good-looking rookie Steve Slaton.

Look for Bengals second-string quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to have his best game since replacing an injured Carson Palmer. He's had several starts and his more comfortable with his main wide receiving targets, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmanzadeh.

Houston is yielding 29.8 points per game. Only the Lions are giving up more. The Bengals have the wideouts to take advantage of the Texans' porous secondary.

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 10/26/08 - 4:05 PMKing Creole | NFL Side
triple-dime bet227 CIN 9.5 (-110) Bodog vs 228 HOU
Analysis: 3*** UNDERDOG Game of the Month on: CINCINNATI BENGALS plus the points vs the houston texans / 4:15pm ET

[ymmit2nd]

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 26, 2008
$30.00 Guaranteed: Jack Clayton nailed his Thursday night Game of the Year on West Virginia and steps up Sunday with a Rare 6-Star Pro Game of the Month! This one won't be close on the scoreboard or ATS. Find out this blockbuster rout and pay ONLY when it wins! 10/25/2008

5* Redskins at Lions: I'm not concerned with the Redskins not putting up a ton of points the last two weeks. There is nothing wrong with this offense. The Redskins (5-2 SU/4-3 ATS) are playing great for new coach Jim Zorn. This is an uptempo West Coast attack and quarterback Jason Campbell has yet to throw a pick! They have outstanding balance with RB Clinton Portis (fourth straight 100-yard performances), plus WRs Santana Moss and Antawn Randle-El. They feature many three-and four-receiver sets and will tear up this terrible Detroit defense. The Lions (0-6 SU/2-4 ATS) may have covered the last two games, losing 12-10 to the Vikings and 28-21 at Houston, but don't be fooled. They were outgained by a wide margin to the conservative Vikings and allowed 404 yards, including 150 rushing, last week to struggling Houston. Houston held the ball for a franchise-record 40:04. This defense is awful, last in the NFL. The offense has turned to Dan Orvolsky (31 points total in his two starts) and recently traded away its best player, WR Roy Williams. The Lions have been outscored 54-0 in the opening quarter this season! Play the Redskins.

[brady1983]

Larry Ness' Week 8 Las Vegas Insider (5-1)

Larry and his "unmatched" contacts combined on yet another Las Vegas Insider win in Wk 7 as buf beat SD (now 5-1 or 83.3% ATS in NFL '08). Larry's NFL Insider is the 1st play he posts each week (Weds) after he and his longtime contacts "break down" the NFL 'card' on Tuesday. "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in on Week 8?


Dallas Cowboys


Larry Ness' 20* Total of the Month (15-6 s/'03!)

Larry plays very few NFL totals but his Total of the Month plays have been 'MONEY' over the last five seaons. He is 15-6 (that's 71.4 percent!) with his NFL Total of the Month plays since the start of the '03 season. Looking for a game which could be 'over' by halftime? Then look no further than Larry's 20* NFL Total of the Month (Oct)! Look out below.

SD/NO OVER


Larry Ness' 20* NFC Game of the Year


Larry was "right on the money" with his 20* AFC/NFC Game of the Year in Wk 5, as the Pats (-3) beat the 49ers, 30-21. This 25-year vet now has his sights set on a Wk 8 game which he's designating as his 20* NFC Game of the Year. You can't afford to get "caught on the sidelines" for this one, as this "no-doubt, double-digit ATS winner" is just a click away!

Philadelphia Eagles

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Allen Eastman

$800.00-105 #207 Tampa Bay (+2.5) over Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)

$2000.00 -105 #203 Kansas City (+14) over New York Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)

$2100.00 -110 ‘Under’ 43.5 St. Louis at New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)

$2200.00-105 #226 Tennessee (-4) over Indianapolis (8 p.m., Monday, Oct. 27)

$800.00 -103 #209 Atlanta (+9.5) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Monday, Oct. 27)

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Sports Wise Guys

5 Star Picks (Week 8)

Cincinnati +10 over Houston
NY Giants +2.5 over Pittsburgh
Buffalo -1.5 over Miami
Pittsburgh/NY Giants over 42.5
San Francisco/Seattle over 41.5

5-Star NFL Picks Season Total: 19-15-1 (55.7%)

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Vegas Vic


Nine-point spread might be too much for Eagles to handle

Falcons (+9) over EAGLES
Has this town ever seen a better day? The Phils gunning for a victory in Game 4 of the World Series while the Eagles look to get back over the .500 mark. And just to add a little spice, Atlanta's rookie QB Matt Ryan is representing Penn Charter. Wow! Pinch me. Don't wanna be a black cloud in the middle of all this, but we have to take a light lean to the Falcons as a big, fat nine-point underdog. Sure the Birds laid a 40 spot on San Francisco before the bye week, but, the key words in that sentence are "San Francisco." Leading up to that game, it was a 15-6 win over Pitt, a 24-20 loss at Chicago and a 23-17 setback against Washington. The Falcs are off to a 4-2 start under first-year coach Mike Smith, straight up and against the spread. And if you're wondering, yeah, I know the Eagles are 9-0 under Andy Reid coming off the bye, which is why this ain't gonna be an upset.


Seahawks (+5) over 49ERS
What has San Francisco done to rate as a 5-point favorite over anyone? As Edwin Starr would say, "absolutely nothing," so we go with the Seahawks as our Best Bet. We do expect the Niners to be pumped up with Mike Singletary stepping in for the fired Mike Nolan, but they are on an 0-4 spread run, and have covered only four of the last 14 at home. This is also, even though he will not admit it, an audition for Mike Holmgren. Every time he gets in front of a microphone or a pen, Holmgren, who is in his final year as the head man with Seattle, insists, he's gonna take off in 2009. Yeah, right. Why the skepticism? Holmgren is a Bay area native, a former high school coach in San Francisco, and a former assistant with the 49ers. Even though the Seahawks talent level is down, and Matt Hasselbeck is out, we see this game going back and forth until a late field goal wins it. Who wins? We couldn't care less! As long as it's by three.


Chargers (-3) over Saints
Talk about a road game, this one will be played at London's Wembley Stadium. And since we are talking about a road game, thought you would be interested to know that New Orleans is 0-3 away from home this season, and will be without the game-breaking talents of Reggie Bush. huge blow for the Saints, which will allow lightning, in the form of San Diego, to strike in London town.


Colts (+4) over TITANS
Every time we count Peyton Manning out, talk about him losing a few inches off his fastball, he seems to come back with an outstanding performance. Indy was 2-2 going into the Baltimore game, coming off a tight win against the lowly Texans, and the Colts crushed the Ravens, 31-3. Obviously, we're not expecting them to squash the 6-0 club from Tennessee, but we are expecting the Horseshoes to cover as an underdog, a spot where they've covered four of the last six.


STEELERS (-3) over Giants
When QB Ben Roethlisberger injured his shoulder and RB Willie Parker went down, we totally thought that this Pittsburgh club would be in trouble. Well, we made a mistake. (See, big boys can admit to mistakes.) The Steelers are 5-1, Big Ben looks just fine, hitting on 17 of 28 for 216 yards with two touchdowns and no picks Sunday, while RB Mewelde Moore filled Parker's cleats with 120 rushing yards and two TDs.


Rams (+7) over PATRIOTS
Not sure what kinda magic Jim Haslett is using, but since taking over after the bye week, St. Louis has upset Washington and Dallas. The Rams ain't gonna get the W, but will keep the final margin inside a touchdown.


LIONS (+7) over Redskins
Lets applaud Jim Zorn for leading Washington to a 4-2 record, but the 'Skins have not won a game by more than seven points yet.


Raiders (+7) over RAVENS
Since Baltimore has covered only seven of its last 23, plus-7 looks like a nice fit for the Silver & Black.


JETS (-13) over Chiefs
Larry Johnson was benched, again, and so was any chance of Kansas City covering this double-digit spread.


DOLPHINS (+1) over Bills
Miami played three solid games in a row, then came up with a clunker against Baltimore Sunday. Look for the Fish to unclunk this week.


COWBOYS (-2) over Buccaneers
Not thrilled with Brad Johnson, but can't back a Tampa team that has an 11-24 road record since 2004.


PANTHERS (-4) over Cardinals
Carolina is 4-0 at home this season, and is riding a 6-0 spread streak in Charlotte.


Browns (+7) over JAGUARS
Cleveland does one thing better than most teams - cover the spread. The Brownies have cashed out 16 of the last 21 times.


TEXANS (-9) over Bengals
This is a game rescheduled because of Hurricane Ike. "Monopoly" money only. <!-- / message -->

[ymmit2nd]

MADDUX SPORTS


NFL - 4 units on Baltimore -1.5,New England -1.5 (2Team 6Point TEASER.

NFL - 3 units on San Diego & New Orleans Over 46

NFL - 5 units on Miami +1 (AFC East Game of the Year)

NFL - 3 units on Pittsburgh -2.5 -120

NFL - 3 units on Cincinnati +9

[Can'tPickaWinner]

NORTH COAST SPORTS
PRO TOTAL POW
WASHINGTON/DET...UNDER 42'
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

winning points

10 star kc chiefs
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

Afc Shocker Of The Month Chiefs
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Spylock

New Orleans......5 unit
monday...Tennessee....1 unit
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Mighty Quinn

1-6 on best bets
Miami + 1 1/2 (BB)
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

BIG AL

1* Tulsa

1* Pittsburgh Steelers

1* Cincinnati Bengals

1* Dallas Cowboys
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Smart Betting Systems

Carolina
Baltimore
Philly
<!-- / message -->

[ymmit2nd]

RON RAYMOND'S 3* NFL UPSET SPECIAL BEST BET!

Pick # 1 Arizona Cardinals (3.5)



RON RAYMOND'S 5* O/U GAME OF THE WEEK!
Pick # 1 Atlanta Falcons /Philadelphia Eagles Under 45 -110

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Randall the Handle

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

MIAMI +1.01 over Buffalo

The Bills stock is way up again after they beat the Chargers last week and ran their record to 5-1 but don’t get too carried away on them yet. A close looks shows a team that beat a woeful Seahawk club in week one and then in week 2 they got a nice win over Jacksonville but they got it in the final seconds and Jacksonville was way out of sync then. In week three, the Bills needed a miracle at home against the Raiders and they got it. In week four they were losing to the Rams most of the way and again made a fourth quarter comeback and won 31-14. They then traveled to Arizona and the Cardinals torched them and made the Bills look bad in doing so. Finally, there was the aforementioned win over the reeling Chargers last week. So, while the 5-1 record looks good on paper, the Bills should be 5-1 with the teams they played and they didn’t do it with ease, that’s for sure. Now they have the media’s attention and a little too much hype. On NFL Countdown this week, Chris Berman sits down with Trent Edwards and discusses the Bills rise to the top of the AFC East. Meanwhile, the Dolphins stock has dropped after consecutive losses to Houston and Baltimore. They could have won both those games and while a loss is a loss, it’s very evident that the Dolphins are on to something good. Chad Pennington keeps moving the offense and in fact, he went 24-35 for 295 yards against a Raven defense that ranks near the top in most categories. I’m just not sold on the Bills as others might be but I am sold on Parcells ability to turn losers into winners. Despite losing its past two, the Dolphins are ready to pop again and this intruder is really not as good as their record suggests. Play: Miami +1.01 (Risking 2 units).

NY Giants +1.35 over PITTSBURGH

For the first time since week one when they beat the Redskins the Giants actually have a game against an opponent they can get excited for. After playing Washington to open the season the Giants faced St. Louis, Cincinnati, Seattle, Cleveland and San Fran. This team hasn’t had their competitive juices flowing for weeks now but a game in Pittsburgh will change that. None of the Steelers wins have been impressive at all. The Eagles buried them and their other wins came against Houston, Cleveland, Baltimore, Jacksonville and Cinci. Incidentally, they were tooth and nails to beat both Baltimore (in Joe Flacco’s first road game) and Jacksonville and one could argue they were extremely fortunate to win both of those. The Steelers will take a huge step up in class here against the bruising play of the Giants. Of all the teams in the league the Giants are the least flawed and probably the most physical and they’ll expose the Steelers just like their NFC East rivals did. Oh, did I mention that the Giants have won 11 of their last 12 road games? Play: NY Giants +1.35 (Risking 2 units).

Oakland +7½ over BALTIMORE

The Raiders will travel across the country again and that’s always a difficult assignment but this Raven team is not built for laying big points with and besides that, who have they beaten to warrant being a 7½-point choice? In fact, the three teams the Ravens have defeated (Cincinnati, Cleveland and Miami) are a combined 4-15. The Colts destroyed them 31-3 two weeks ago. So, while the Ravens defensive numbers are stellar, they’re also a bit skewed after playing some teams that can’t move five yards. Not that the Raiders are an offensive powerhouse because they’re not. However, they are averaging 345 yards per game and they got some life into them last week after a win over the Jets. The distractions surrounding the status of Lane Kiffen are gone and now the Raiders benefited right away. The Raiders have played some of the top offensive teams in the league in San Diego, New Orleans, Denver and to a lesser extent Buffalo and will find the offense or lack thereof of the Ravens to be much more to their liking. The Raiders defense is not easy to score against and in fact, they’ve recorded 16 sack in their past five games. Again, the Ravens are just not a team you lay significant points with and frankly, I’m not even sure they’re that much better then the Raiders. Home field counts for something but not more then a converted TD. If the game were in Oakland it would be a pick’em. Play: Oakland +7½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Tampa Bay +1.18 over DALLAS

Well, the greatest circus on turf will get at it once again and after their most embarrassing and humiliating loss in years one has to believe the Boys will be completely amped up and ready to go here. The question is, will it be enough? I don’t think so. Not because the Cowboys don’t have the talent but because they’re a dumpster-fire that’s burning out of control. Jerry Jones is a gambler. He gambles with oil and he gambles with personalities. When he has coaches that he can puppet-master (Wade Phillips and Dave Campo) the Cowboys sink fast. When he has coaches that bite back (Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells) the Cowboys rise to the top. But alas, Jones has to be in control and Wade Phillips is his puppet. Jones comes storming down onto the sidelines for the second half and we’re not sure who is doing the coaching. Jones gambled with T.O, he gambled with Pac-Man and now he’s gambling again with Roy Williams. T.O is rolling his eyes and screaming at teammates, Williams wants the ball, Brad Johnson is 40 years old and not very good and Wade Phillips has already lost control. Meanwhile, the Bucs continue to battle hard and play as a team. They seldom beat themselves and they have one of the best defenses in the game. The Bucs have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher and that means that Johnson will likely have to go to the air. It’s not a good match-up for the Cowboys and it’s not a good time either. Things are about to blow up for the Cowboys and their pathetic secondary and I just can’t see how they’ll bounce back. This is a team of individuals that are finger-pointing and enjoying the circus. I’ll enjoy it too at about 4:00 PM when I’m in line to cash this ticket. Play: Tampa Bay +1.18 (Risking 2 units).

------------------------------------------------

Other games (6-3).

Other games with a lean but no wager

Atlanta +9 over PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles get back Westbrook and they’re coming off a bye, which is a dangerous combination but damn, these are a lot of points to be spotting the Falcons. In fact, the team with the better record here is receiving nine big points and that seems a little out of whack to me. I’m not sure if this is a trap or just that the Falcons aren’t getting the respect they deserve and it’s for that reason I’m backing off. Still, the Falcons, too, are coming off a bye week and this team has shown they can do a lot of good things. Matt Ryan is most definitely NFL caliber and it doesn’t hurt that the Falcons possess one of the NFL’s top rushing game. It’s an interesting match-up to be sure, as the Eagles love to blitz and we’ll see how Ryan and the Falcons offensive line holds up. It is notable that only one team this season has covered when spotting double digits and I certainly wouldn’t put this one is the big mismatch category. The Eagles look overpriced here but when something looks too good it’s usually a red flag. The Falcons are a young and dangerous team with nothing to lose and that makes them even more appealing. Play: Atlanta +9 (No bets).

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Side
double-dime bet208 DAL -2.0 (-110) Bodog vs 207 TAM
Analysis: This game will be between two teams with different states of mind right now. More important than injuries or the players missing on a certain game, the psychological aspect can be the most important factor of a game and the teams are coming to this game in opposite states of mind.

Dallas has lost their second game in a row and the 3rd of their last 4 games. Their defeat against the Rams was horrible (I took them). The Cowboys started well the game with a TD on the first drive of the game, but then allowed 3 TD on the 3 first drives of the Rams, suffering 21 points in the 1st quarter of the game! This was the second game in a row the Cowboys have allowed at least 30 points and I expect the team to bounce back this week.

Cowboys coach Wade Phillips said Friday morning he was impressed with how the players responded to up-tempo practices this week and also with the atmosphere in the locker room.

"I have a good feeling," Phillips said. "Our team attitude is good. They're looking forward to this game."

Their defense will have their big test this week, after being humiliated last week against one of the weakest offenses of the league. The situation that I've told before about the psychological aspect of this game has to go with the fact this is a must win game for Dallas and it is inserted on a very strong spot called "Playoff Potential". And why? Well, Dallas is 4-3 and a defeat this week would put them with a 4-4 record, knowing the Giants are 5-1 and the Redskins are 5-2. So, a loss this week would put on a big hole, especially when their next two games will be against the Giants and the Redskins on the road!!! A defeat this week would almost kill their chances of reaching the postseason.

The spot of the Bucs is totally the opposite. They are 5-2 right now and they are coming from a very big home win over Seattle on a SNF game. And looking at their schedule, their next three games will be against the Chiefs, Minny and Detroit. A possible 3-0 for them on these games would be no surprise, which put the Bucs on a lookahead situation this week.

QB Brad Johnson didn't have the season debut as a starter he wanted last week against the Rams, with 3 interceptions and 1 TD pass, for just 50% completions, but Johnson has an edge this week. He has played in Tampa for four seasons with coach Gruden and know the Bucs' defensive system very well and knows how to avoid it.

Dallas is 0-4 ATS on their last 4 games and they are just being favored by 2 points on this game, so a win by a FG is enough for them to cover. The team still has a lot of talent even without Romo and the spot is too strong to be avoided. Dallas is 15-4 ATS in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games since 1992. So, I'm taking Dallas in here for a good bounce back game for them. DOUBLE DIME PLAY.





Sun, 10/26/08 - 4:15 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Total
dime bet220 PIT / 219 NYG Under 42.0 Bodog
Analysis: At first sight, we could say this game will have as its key matchup, the offense of the Giants (2nd best in the league with 395.0 yds/game) and the defense of the Steelers (best in the NFL with only 228.3 yards/game allowed). The Giants are showing this season that they have a good offensive game. They won last season's SuperBowl, mainly due to their defense, but this season their offense is simply on-fire. All of this is true, but it hides a very important factor: the level of the opponents the Giants have faced this season. In 6 games, the Giants have faced one team with a winning record, the Redskins on opening night. After that, the Giants faced teams with a combined record of 7-25!!! So, it's better to be careful, when we analyze the Giants for this week's game. They have the best rushing game of the league, with 169.7 yards/game. But if we see the defenses of the Giants' opponents on their last 5 games, the team with the best rush defense is Seattle and they are just 22nd on the league with 121.3 rushing yards/game allowed. The last two times teams limited the Giants' running games, they had problems, as they barely defeated the Bengals and lost against the Browns.

Well, the Steelers are at a whole different level. They are the 2nd best rush defense of the league with just 69.7 yards/allowed and the Giants will for the first time the season face a team, which is capable of making them struggle on both ends of the football. However, the defense of the Giants continues to be very strong, even though most of the talk is about their offense right now. The team bounce back nicely from their MNF disaster at Cleveland and limited the 49ers to 17 points. And the Steelers will struggle on the offense. First of all, the injuries: WR Santonio Holmes is a big loss for this game, due to extra football motives. And if we add the fact RB Willie Parker is doubtful for this game, the Steelers will have problems in their offense this week. The blitzing DL of the Giants will cause a lot of problems to the Steelers and their way of attacking the pass rush is very similar to the one the Eagles use and if you remember earlier in the season, the Eagles defense rocked Ben Roethlisberger for eight sacks. The Giants are the 2nd team of the league with most sacks this season: 21! And the best of the league on that stat is the... Steelers with 25!

So, I predict both teams to have problems on their offense on this week and I expect an hard game in a low scoring affair in here. This will be the first big test of the Giants this season and the Under is 6-2 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. Unless, some weird stuff happens on the field, this will be a low scoring game. Take the under in here.

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMTony George | NFL Side
dime bet208 DAL -1.0 (-110) Bodog vs 207 TAM
Analysis:
Dallas -1

The Cowboys back is against the wall, Tampa Struggled against lowly Seattle for most the game last week, but I have a feeling that this is a game many expect Dallas to lose in the shape they are, but Brad Johnson and company get it done against his old team here. Tampa 1-2 on the road this year and I like Dallas to bounce back at home in a game that sets up the rest of the season in my opinion. Cowboys have more talent and should be able to get it all put together against a suspect Bucs team. Look for a reversal of fortune here for Dallas.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas.




2 team teaser. Tease Baltimore to -3 and tease the TOTAL in the Steelers / Giants game Up to 48.5 and take the UNDER. Play 1 Unit..Thanks and Good Luck..Tony George





Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMTony George | NFL Side
dime bet209 ATL 9.5 (-110) BetUS vs 210 PHI
Analysis:

Atlanta +9

A team who beat Green Bay on the road getting 9 here. Unlike other rebuilding teams like KC lets say, Atlanta is getting better each week. The power running game, good passing by Rookie Ryan, and Philly is not fully recovered from their losing ways, although we pounded them last week against the 49ers, anyone looks good against the 49ers. Atlanta has a solid defense, good special teams, confidence, and some great skill players and scheme their games well. Should be a good game, possibly low scoring, I will take Atlanta. and the generous points. I watch Atlanta play and beat a good Chicago team last week and am impressed with the QB and RB and defense as well as being very well coached and prepared.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta






Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMTony George | NFL Side
dime bet214 CAR -3.5 (-110) BetUS vs 213 ARI
Analysis:


Carolina -3.5

Sold on the resurgence of Carolina here who plays tough defense at home and power running game should dominate here, and open play action to WR Smith to make big plays. Arizona has lost 2 out of their 3 roadies this year to the NY Jets and Washington, both sound defeats. I like going against an Overtime winner, especially a dog the following week. Carolina is on a roll, they are 7-2-1 ATS their last 10, and in their last 3 games they have allowed 11 ppg on defense. Like the running game against Arizona here and the home team.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

[LLXC13]

Bill Gallo

5-2 best bets..Lost last 2
Tampa + 2..BB

[ymmit2nd]

Lock of The Day - paid pick
NFL Lock Of the Month - Ravens

[ymmit2nd]

Nathan Armstrong
Highprofitsports

5* Chargers/saints Under
4* Ravens
4* Bengals
3* Panthers
2* Jags

[kellyt]

Dr. Bob

BALTIMORE (-7.0) 21 Oakland 13
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-26 - Stats Matchup
Oakland applies to a negative 80-138-6 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset overtime win over the Jets, but I’m not thrilled about the idea of taking a Baltimore team that is showing cracks in the secondary and doesn’t have an offense good enough to trust laying a big number. The Ravens have averaged just 4.6 yards per play this season and they rate at 0.6 yppl worse than average. The Raiders’ defense has been good in a few games and horrible in a few other and they allowed 418 yards at 5.9 yppl in last week’s 16-13 win over the Jets. Oakland rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively for the season, but they’ve had more success in games when they’ve blitzed more often and defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has stated his intentions of coming after the Ravens’ rookie QB. Oakland’s run-oriented attack won’t have much success on the ground against Baltimore’s dominating defensive front (3.0 ypr allowed), so it will be up to JaMarcus Russell to lead the team down the field with his big, but inaccurate, arm going up against a suddenly vulnerable Baltimore secondary that hasn’t been nearly as good in 4 games without star CB Samari Rolle (allowed 7.0 yards per pass play in those 4 games to teams that would combine to average 6.5 yppp against an average team). The other star CB Chris McAlister is in coach Harbaugh’s doghouse and didn’t start last week when the Ravens allowed Miami to throw for 8.0 yppp. McAlister probably won’t start again this week, so Russell should have decent success throwing the ball in this game and he is much more careful with his passes (just 2 interceptions) and Flacco has been (7 picks). My math model favors Baltimore by just 5 points, but I’ll lean slightly with the Ravens at -7 or less based on the situation.



Kansas City vs. NY JETS (-13.0)
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-26 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here



MIAMI 23 Buffalo (-1.0) 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-26 - Stats Matchup
Buffalo isn’t as good as their 5-1 record indicates, rating at average offensively (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and 0.4 yppl better than average on defense, and the Bills apply to a negative 79-146-9 ATS road letdown situation today in addition to a 124-195-16 ATS statistical profile indicator. Miami has emerged as a very good offensive team since playing poorly on that side of the ball the first two games of the season and the Dolphins are now 0.5 yppl better than average on offense for the season (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl). Miami’s defense has been inconsistent and the Dolphins are at 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season, but they aren’t that much worse than the Bills overall from the line of scrimmage. Buffalo is once again among the best teams in the league in special teams and my math model favors the Bills by 2 ½ points, but I’ll lean with Miami based on the situation.



St. Louis vs. NEW ENGLAND (-7.0)
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-26 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here



New Orleans 27 San Diego (-3.0) 26 (at London)
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-26 - Stats Matchup
This game is being played in London and should be a much more entertaining contest than last year’s low scoring, muddy affair between the Giants and the winless Dolphins. Both of these teams are equally great offensively, as the Saints have averaged 6.3 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the Chargers have averaged 6.1 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but the Saints have been better defensively so far this season. New Orleans was shaky defensively the first 3 games of the season but they’ve tightened up the last 4 games and now rate at average for the season on defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off a poor defensive game in Buffalo (6.4 yppl allowed) and they’ve given up 5.5 yppl for the season (against teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team). The loss of Reggie Bush doesn’t hurt the offense at all, but he’s been worth almost 3 points per game with his punt returns, 3 of which have gone for touchdowns, and San Diego now has the special teams edge in this game with New Orleans continuing to suffer with their place kicking. My math model favors New Orleans by ½ a point, so I like the Saints plus the points in this one and I'll favor the Over.


Washington (-7.5) 23 DETROIT 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-26 - Stats Matchup
Detroit has covered the spread in consecutive weeks with the situational analysis in their favor, but the Lions are still a horrible team and my math model favors the Redskins by 11 ½ points in this game. The Lions are once again in a pretty good situation – qualifying in a 77-27-1 ATS situation that plays on teams on a 5 game or more losing streak. I’ll have to lean slightly with Detroit at +7 ½ or more based on that angle.


PHILADELPHIA (-9.0) 28 Atlanta 17
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-26 - Stats Matchup
Atlanta has been surprisingly good offensively with rookie quarterback Matt Ryan at the controls (5.9 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Falcons are bad defensively (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average just 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team) and have been blown out in two of their three road games. Philadelphia rates at 0.7 yppl better than average offensively and Donavan McNabb should have a big day throwing against a bad Falcons’ secondary, and the Eagles are 0.7 yppl better than average defensively. My math model favors Philly by 11 ½ points and I have no reason to vary from that projection.


DALLAS (-2.0) 23 Tampa Bay 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-26 - Stats Matchup
Dallas applies to a very good 35-8-2 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s blowout loss in St. Louis and the Cowboys also apply to a 135-65-5 ATS contrary indicator that is based on their poor spread performance so far this season (2-5 ATS). The problem with playing on the Cowboys in a good technical spot is the fact that they are not nearly as good as Tampa Bay with Brad Johnson at quarterback in place of the injured Tony Romo. I do expect Johnson to be a better than average quarterback given his talent at receiver, although he didn’t show it last week, but he’s not going to be nearly as good as Romo, who was averaging over 8 yards per pass play. Dallas does have a good rushing attack and they I still rate the Cowboys’ offense at 0.4 yards per play better than average with Johnson at quarterback, but the Buccaneers are 0.4 yppl better than average defensively. The difference in this game is when the Bucs have the ball, as Tampa is 0.3 yppl better than average with Jeff Garcia at quarterback (and he doesn’t throw nearly as many interceptions at Brian Griese does) while Dallas has been just average defensively this season (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and are worse without top defensive back Pacman Jones, who has been suspended. Jones broke up 6 passes in 6 games and nobody else on the team has more than 2 passes defended. Jones’ impact was felt last week, as a weak St. Louis offense racked up 5.9 yppl. I rate the Cowboys at 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively without Jones and my math model favors the Bucs by 4 points in this game with current personnel. With the math going one way and the technical analysis going strongly the other way, I will pass on this game.


CAROLINA (-4.0) 23 Arizona 19
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-26 - Stats Matchup
Carolina and Arizona are two good teams and the Cardinals are back at full strength offensively with WR Anquan Boldin returning after missing two games with a concussion. Cardinals’ quarterback Kurt Warner was 1.5 yards per pass play better than average in 4 games with Boldin and just 0.5 yppp better than average in two games without him. I rate Arizona’s offense at 0.7 yards per play better than average heading into this game and that unit will be challenged by a good Panthers’ defense that is 0.8 yppl better than average. Carolina’s offense has improved since star WR Steve Smith joined the lineup in week 3 after missing the first two games due to a suspension, and that unit rates at 0.2 yppl better than average. Arizona struggled defensively in weeks 4 and 5 with star safety Adrian Wilson out, but he returned for their upset win over the Cowboys and I rate the Cardinals’ stop unit at 0.1 yppl better than average with Wilson back. These teams match up pretty evenly from the line of scrimmage, but my math model favors the Panthers by 5 ½ points in this game. I don’t like laying points with Carolina, as the Panthers are just 10-19-1 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or more under coach John Fox, including 7-19-1 ATS if they are not coming off a bye week. I’ll pass.


JACKSONVILLE (-7.0) 25 Cleveland 16
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-26 - Stats Matchup
Jacksonville’s 3 losses this season have come to Tennessee, Buffalo and Pittsburgh, who are a combined 16-2 straight up. However, the Jaguars haven’t exactly been winning convincingly when they have won, as their average margin of victory in their 3 wins is just 4 points. The Jaguars still have the reputation of being a good team, but that is simply not the case so far this season. Jacksonville has averaged just 5.1 yppl on offense (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and they’ve allowed 5.9 yppl (to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team). Those are not good numbers and Cleveland is certainly capable of competing in this game. The Browns’ offense has really struggled in 5 of their 6 games, but they’ve also faced the toughest schedule of defensive teams in the league – a group of teams that would combine to allow just 4.7 yppl to an average team. Cleveland has averaged 4.4 yppl, so they really haven’t been much worse than average – although their average is skewed a bit by only great offensive game (8.1 yppl against the Giants). Cleveland’s defense has been 0.3 yppl worse than average, but that’s better than the Jaguars’ offensive rating. My math model sees these teams as about the same and favors the Jaguars by just 3 points. I’m still going to back the Jags in this game on the basis of a 46-13-4 ATS subset of a 219-128-16 ATS statistical indicator. That’s one of my favorite angles, so it’s too bad the line is too high for me to play it.



Cincinnati vs. HOUSTON (-9.5)
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-26 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here



PITTSBURGH (-2.5) 21 NY Giants 16
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-26 - Stats Matchup
This game will be a good test for both teams and the Steelers’ defense gives them the advantage. Pittsburgh has been tremendous defensively this season, allowing just 3.7 yards per play (and no more than 4.2 yppl in any one game) to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive unit. As good as New York’s offense has been (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), it has not been nearly as good as Pittsburgh’s defense. The Steelers’ offense has been nothing special in averaging 5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, and the Giants have been 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl). This game appears to be pretty even from a yards per play perspective, but my math model favors the Steelers by 5 ½ points.


SAN FRANCISCO (-5.0) 23 Seattle 16
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-26 - Stats Matchup
Seattle is a horrible team that has averaged just 4.5 yards per play on offense while allowing 5.7 yppl on defense. The Seahawks are even worse with quarterback Matt Hasselbeck out and they were out-played 4.9 yppl to 5.8 yppl with Hasselbeck in a week 2 home loss to the Niners. San Francisco is better than their 2-5 record, as the Niners have out-gained their opponents 5.5 yppl to 5.2 yppl. San Francisco even out-played the Giants last week (5.1 yppl to 4.6 yppl), but their -3 in turnover margin led to a defeat. San Francisco is likely to be negative in turnovers with reckless J.T. O’Sullivan at quarterback (10 interceptions in 7 games), but it’s just bad luck that the Niners are -6 in fumbles. My math model favors the 49ers by 12 ½ points in this game, but Seattle applies to a very strong 48-9-1 ATS subset of a 75-21-4 ATS situation that makes it tough for me to play this game either way. I’m going to lean slightly with San Francisco under new coach Mike Singletary.


TENNESSEE (-4.0) 23 Indianapolis 16
05:35 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-27 - Stats Matchup
I went against the Colts last week for a 3-Star Best Bet winner on Green Bay, and Indy still appears to be overrated. The Colts have been just 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively this season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they are only 0.2 yppl better than average if I take out Peyton Manning’s rusty performance in the opener against Chicago (he missed all of training camp and the pre-season and was obviously rusty). Tennessee’s defense is good against the run and good against the pass and the Titans rate at 0.8 yppl better than average defensively overall (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team), so I don’t expect the Colts to have much success in this game. The Titans’ offense has been a bit sluggish, rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average and they are at a slight disadvantage against a Colts’ stop unit that is just average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Tennessee is clearly the better team and my math model favors the Titans by 8 points in this game. There are very strong situations favoring both sides in this game, so I’ll stick with the math and lean with the Titans minus the points.

[kellyt]

Myedge 6-0 L 2 Weeks

3* Kansas City at NY Jets - Sunday, October 26
3* Carolina vs Arizona - Sunday, October 26
3* Jacksonville vs Cleveland - Sunday, October 26

[kellyt]

MADDUX SPORTS


NFL - 4 units on Baltimore -1.5,New England -1.5 (2Team 6Point TEASER.

NFL - 3 units on San Diego & New Orleans Over 46

NFL - 5 units on Miami +1 (AFC East Game of the Year)

NFL - 3 units on Pittsburgh -2.5 -120

NFL - 3 units on Cincinnati +9

[chase88]

JEFFERSONSPORTS--been on fire in NFL hit 21 of last 26 (81%)

39-23-1 last 63 fb plays
5-4 in NHL
4-1 CFL

FOOTBALL
TULSA-23 (released last mon)
NFL EARLY RELEASE
PHILADELPHIA-9

more in morning
good luck

[LLXC13]

Two Minute Warning

Best Bets
Investor

Baltimore -7
New Orleans +3
Buffalo -1
Tampa Bay +1 1/2
Atlanta +9
New England -7
Detroit +7 1/2
Jacksonville -7
Cincinnati +9 1/2

Locals line

6-5 LW
29-20-2 YTD

[Tiznow214]

Chris Rizzo

BEST BET PLAY 2-0 YTD

INDY 4

[Tiznow214]

Action Sports Services

Best Bet Play 4-0 YTD

Detroit +7.5

[LongboardLarry]

Can someone please post football jesus for sun

so far he gave me Dallas-2

the rest will be out by NOON PST

[Polynikes2008]

<table class="data"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell">EXPERT: Ted Sevransky</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datacell">TITLE: Teddy's Tremendous Trifecta</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datacell">[B] Big Ticket: 6* Take the Giants.
</td></tr></tbody></table>

[lucid_dreamer]

kelsos
50 units chairman goy

ny jets

:103631605

[Banker]

kelsos
50 units chairman goy

ny jets

:103631605


Is this confirmed . . . no mention of chairman GOY on his website. It shows a NFC GOY which is reported to be San Fran from another site.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

SUNSHINE FORECAST

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Oakland Raiders (+7) at Baltimore Ravens

Power Rating Projection:

Baltimore Ravens 26 Oakland Raiders 18
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Oakland Raiders 24 Baltimore Ravens 23
Oakland Raiders (1 star)


New Orleans Saints (+3) vs. San Diego Chargers [@ London, England]

Power Rating Projection:

San Diego Chargers 25 New Orleans Saints 23
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

San Diego Chargers 31 New Orleans Saints 30


Kansas City Chiefs (+11½) at New York Jets

Power Rating Projection:

New York Jets 26 Kansas City Chiefs 14
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New York Jets 23 Kansas City Chiefs 10


Buffalo Bills (-1) at Miami Dolphins

Power Rating Projection:

Buffalo Bills 20 Miami Dolphins 17
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Buffalo Bills 15 Miami Dolphins 12


Tampa Bay Buccaneers(+1) at Dallas Cowboys

Power Rating Projection:

Dallas Cowboys 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Dallas Cowboys 35 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22
Dallas Cowboys (1 star)


Atlanta Falcons (+7½) at Philadelphia Eagles

Power Rating Projection:

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Atlanta Falcons 16
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Philadelphia Eagles 20 Atlanta Falcons 13


St Louis Rams (+4½) at New England Patriots

Power Rating Projection:

New England Patriots 27 St Louis Rams 12
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New England Patriots 23 St Louis Rams 9


Arizona Cardinals (+4½) at Carolina Panthers

Power Rating Projection:

Carolina Panthers 24 Arizona Cardinals 20
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Carolina Panthers 26 Arizona Cardinals 22


Washington Redskins (-7½) at Detroit Lions

Power Rating Projection:

Washington Redskins 26 Detroit Lions 18
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Washington Redskins 28 Detroit Lions 20

Angle: Favored by More Than 7 Points on the Road [Road teams favored by more than 7 points ]
Go against Washington Redskins ( No additional conditions, 48-68-3, 41.4% )

Cleveland Browns (+7) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Power Rating Projection:

Jacksonville Jaguars 25 Cleveland Browns 17
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 Cleveland Browns 16


New York Giants (+1) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Power Rating Projection:

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 New York Giants 22
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 New York Giants 26


Seattle Seahawks (+5) at San Francisco 49ers

Power Rating Projection:

San Francisco 49ers 23 Seattle Seahawks 21
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

San Francisco 49ers 24 Seattle Seahawks 22


Cincinnati Bengals (+10) at Houston Texans

Power Rating Projection:

Houston Texans 25 Cincinnati Bengals 20
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Houston Texans 28 Cincinnati Bengals 23


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, October 27, 2008

Indianapolis Colts (+3½) at Tennessee Titans

Power Rating Projection:

Tennessee Titans 21 Indianapolis Colts 19
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Tennessee Titans 19 Indianapolis Colts 17

[EagleFan]

Is this confirmed . . . no mention of chairman GOY on his website. It shows a NFC GOY which is reported to be San Fran from another site.

From another site....
Kelso
50* NFC GOY ....49ers............confirmed
75* NFL side & total parlay...........?

Saw posted somewhere that he has an NFL GOY = Jets...UNCONFIRMED..........There is no mention of this on his website.....

[Can'tPickaWinner]

SUNSHINE FORECAST

NCAAF

Sunday, October 26, 2008

U-C-F(+21) at Tulsa

Power Rating Projection:

Tulsa 49 U-C-F 19
Statistical Projections

U-C-F 25

Rushing Yards: 162
Passing Yards: 159
Turnovers: 2 Tulsa 33

Rushing Yards: 162
Passing Yards: 293
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to U-C-F
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Tulsa 56 U-C-F 26

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Norm Hitzges

NFL
Double Plays

Cincinnati +9.5 vs Houston
Philadelphia -9 vs Atlanta

Single Plays

Buffalo/Miami Under 42.5
NY Giants +2.5 vs Pittsburgh
NY Giants/Pittsburgh Over 42
Baltimore -7 vs Oakland
Kansas City +13.5 vs NY Jets
Carolina -4 vs Arizona
Tampa Bay +2.5 vs Dallas
Tampa Bay/Dallas Under 40.5

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Jimmy The Moose

Game: San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints Oct 26 2008 1:00PM
Prediction: under

Reason: The Chargers have played under the total in their last 3 games. Over their last 3 games San Diego is averaging 18 PPG while their D is giving up 16.7 per contest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games played in October. The Saints have played the under in their last 2 games. New Orleans will be without Reggie Bush in this one and his injury will hurt this team. Last year when the team's played in London, England it was rainy and the field wasn't the best resulting in a low scoring game, look for the same today. Play the under.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

The Vegas Steam Line

Sunday: Take BUFFALO/MIAMI UNDER the total of 42

[Can'tPickaWinner]

GOLD SHEET

NCAAF


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26

*** *TULSA 56 - UCF 24—While the old-school handicapper in us might tend to favor defense over offense, the firepower edge enjoyed by Tulsa in this matchup is so stark that we’re compelled to lay the lumber. How can sputtering UCF (just 243 ypg—worst in country) possibly keep pace with juggernaut Golden Hurricane side that peppers the scoreboard with a nation-leading 57 ppg? CABLE TV—ESPN (07-UCF 44-Tulsa 23...T.25-24 U.48/229 T.25/59 T.35/61/4/320 U.21/29/0/224 U.1 T.0)
(07-UCF -3 44-23 05-Tulsa -2 44-27 at Orlando...SR: EVEN 1-1)

[brady1983]

Larry Ness' 20* Total of the Month (15-6 s/'03!)

Larry plays very few NFL totals but his Total of the Month plays have been 'MONEY' over the last five seaons. He is 15-6 (that's 71.4 percent!) with his NFL Total of the Month plays since the start of the '03 season. Looking for a game which could be 'over' by halftime? Then look no further than Larry's 20* NFL Total of the Month (Oct)! Look out below.

SD/NO OVER

Larry Ness' Week 8 Las Vegas Insider (5-1 in NFL)

Larry and his "unmatched" contacts combined on yet another Las Vegas Insider win, as the Bills beat the Chargers in Week 7 (now 5-1 or 83.3% ATS in NFL '08). Larry's NFL Insider is the first play he posts each week (on Weds) after he and his longtime contacts "break down" the NFL 'card' on Tuesday. "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in on Week 8?


Dallas Cowboys


Larry Ness' 20* NFC Game of the Year


Larry was "right on the money" with his 20* AFC/NFC Game of the Year in Wk 5, as the Pats (-3) beat the 49ers, 30-21. This 25-year vet now has his sights set on a Wk 8 game which he's designating as his 20* NFC Game of the Year. You can't afford to get "caught on the sidelines" for this one, as this "no-doubt, double-digit ATS winner" is just a click away!

Philadelphia Eagles


Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner (ATS blowout!)

Larry has some "making up to do" after a poor Saturday but he had no problems winning his Weekend Wipeout Winner in CFB. Missouri (-24) beat Colordao, 58-0 and while you don't get blowouts like that too often in the NFL, Larry anticipates a "double-digit ATS win"with his NFL Week 8 Weekend Wipeout Winner. Any takers?


Carolina Panthers

[Can'tPickaWinner]

GOLD SHEET

NFL

KEY RELEASES
MIAMI by 10 over Buffalo
WASHINGTON by 18 over Detroit
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Giants-Pittsburgh game

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26

BALTIMORE 21 - Oakland 10—It appears that Baltimore rookie QB Joe
Flacco is further ahead in his development than second-year Oakland QB
JaMarcus Russell. Considering Russell’s protracted holdout in 2007 and TY’s
early coaching change, that’s quite understandable. Ravens suffered a blow
when aggressive G Marshall Yanda, the new anchor of their OL following the
retirement of Jonathan Ogden after LY, suffered a season-ending injury. But in
a duel of the Ryan brothers as defensive coordinators, we’ll trust Ray Lewis &
Co. to get into the head of the talented—but young—Mr. Russell.
(06-BALTIMORE -12' 28-6...SR: Baltimore 4-1)

New Orleans 23 - San Diego 17—If the Wembley pitch is as waterlogged as
it was for last year’s Giants-Dolphins mud bath (and rain is a good bet this time
of year in London), then Reggie Bush’s likely absence due to a knee injury might
not hurt N.O. as it might have on the fast track of the Superdome. Besides,
Deuce McAllister might be a better infantry alternative on an “off” track anyway.
Meanwhile, we’re beginning to wonder if it’s the occasional bursts of brilliance,
or the ongoing inconsistencies, that represent the “real” San Diego, which
misses Shawne Merriman’s pressure and intimidation on defense and is
another misstep from falling to 3-5. (at London, England)
(04-SAN DIEGO -6' 43-17...SR: San Diego 7-2)

NY JETS 30 - Kansas City 13—Even with the pointspread lofty, K.C. has too
many problems to make the Chiefs a worthy side. QB carousel. Tony
Gonzalez’ attempt to get out. High-maintenance Larry Johnson in the
doghouse. Youth in the OL. Effort concerns on defense (Titans 332 YR last
week). Jets are 2-1 vs. the spread at home TY and capable of a much better
offensive effort than last week’s 13 points in OT. Thomas Jones had 159 YR
week ago behind N.Y.’s improved OL. In Favre we trust.
(07-NYJ 13-K. City 10 (OT)...N.20-14 N.45/199 K.19/53 K.20/43/0/166 N.14/26/0/138 N.0 K.0)
(07-NY JETS -5 13-10 (OT)...SR: Kansas City 17-16-1)

***MIAMI 23 - Buffalo 13—Perhaps Baltimore’s defense has provided the
road map to deal with Ronnie Brown and Miami’s “Wildcat” formations, blitzing
repeatedly and limiting the Dolphins to just 4 yards on 5 Wildcat plays last week.
Buffalo, however, neither stonewalls the run nor pressures the passer as well as
the Ravens, so Chad Pennington (75% the past 4 weeks) ought to be able to so
some business. No complaints about Trent Edwards, but Bills not trustworthy
on the road, especially with their OL experiencing power shortages (Fowler out
last week) and with Marshawn Lynch yet to crack the century mark.
(07-Buf. 13-MIAMI 10...15-15 M.38/143 B.25/63 B.12/23/1/151 M.16/29/0/126 B.0 M.0)
(07-BUF. 38-Miami 17...B.20-18 B.40/224 M.21/65 M.23/44/2/220 B.11/23/0/165 B.1 M.3)
(07-Buffalo -2' 13-10, BUFFALO -7 38-17...SR: Miami 50-37-1)

DALLAS 20 - Tampa Bay 16—The absence of Tony Romo, RB Felix Jones,
CB Adam Jones, WR Sam Hurd and P Mat McBriar proved to be far more than
Dallas could absorb last week, even vs. marginal St. Louis. Moreover,
considering the way the Cowboy OL and defense played, the coaching staff can
also be faulted for failing to fire up the remaining core of key Dallas players.
Romo’s status remains uncertain at this writing, but the Cowboys’ 2-10 spread
mark their last 12 overall is not. At our deadline, we’re uncomfortable laying
more than four in Dallas’ return home after two defeats.
(06-DALLAS -11 38-10...SR: Dallas 9-3)

PHILADELPHIA 20 - Atlanta 17—Normally reluctant to recommend a rookie
QB against Jim Johnson’s aggressive Philly defense that made Ben
Roethlisberger look like chopped liver at the Linc in September. But Atlanta’s
Matt Ryan is mature far beyond his years, and the presence of Michael Turner
(597 YR) is providing the necessary balance for the Falcon attack. And with
new HC Mike Smith “slowing down” the games for Ryan, it’s doubtful the Eagles
can capitalize on the sort of mistakes they did vs. Mike Martz’ 49er offense in
Philly’s last outing. A bit reluctant to lay significant points with Eagles until Brian
Westbrook (ribs; check status) able to play with abandon.
(06-PHILADELPHIA -8' 24-17...SR: Philadelphia 14-11-1)

NEW ENGLAND 20 - St. Louis 17—Rematch of Super Bowl XXXVI in the
2001 season, when Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes vs. Mike Martz’ offense
and the clutch plays of the young Tom Brady began the Patriots’ dynasty. Lots
has happened since then, most of it good for the Pats and bad for the
Rams...until Brady’s knee injury. St. Louis has put together back-to-back hardfought
victories, with Steven Jackson rushing for 239 yards in the two and
speedy rookie WR Donnie Avery contributing 9 recs. for 138 yards. Rams have
a long way to go, but Pats were 0-7 vs. the spread their last 7 at Foxborough
prior to their Monday nighter vs. Denver.
(04-New England P 40-22...SR: EVEN 5-5)

CAROLINA 30 - Arizona 16—Now that order has been re-established in
Charlotte after last week’s 30-7 romp past the Saints, will lay points with
confident host. After all, Panthers a much different “animal” when Jonathan
Stewart & DeAngelo Williams (66 & 68 YR, respectively, last week) establish
Carolina’s power rush attack, allowing Jake Delhomme to execute play-action
and locate old friends Steve Smith (6 for 122 vs. Saints) & Muhsin Muhammad
downfield. Meanwhile, Arizona one of the five western-most teams that has
struggled with cross-country travel (2-7 vs. spread in role TY; Cards have
already lost at Skins & Jets).
(07-Car. 25-ARIZ. 10...C.14-10 C.30/181 A.26/98 C.20/33/0/193 A.14/26/3/159 C.0 A.2)
(07-Carolina +5 25-10...SR: Carolina 5-2)

***Washington 31 - DETROIT 13—Redskins once captured 18 straight
meetings between these two from 1968-97. Detroit is 2-3 in the series since,
but it’s hard to count on them—even as a sizeable home dog—now that they’re
clearly thinking of the future (e.g., GM Matt Millen ousted, WR Roy Williams
traded, QB Jon Kitna placed on IR). Redskin OL is being praised for its
improvement in Jim Zorn’s West Coast base, and Shaun Alexander is now
around to help relieve some of the work load on Clinton Portis (818 YR).
Opposing QBs Jason Campbell (no ints. TY) & Dan Orlovsky both in their fourth
seasons. But who is more likely to make costly mistakes? Lions—trying to
overcome poor choices in the front office and on draft day—only 3-11 vs. the
spread last 14 overall.
(07-WASH. 34-Det. 3...W.23-11 W.35/118 D.20/68 W.23/29/0/248 D.16/29/2/76 W.1 D.0)
(07-WASHINGTON -3' 34-3...SR: Washington 29-10)

JACKSONVILLE 23 - Cleveland 20—Jags 0-3 vs. the spread at home, as
TY’s early OL injuries a key factor in the team’s inconsistent 2008 offense.
Jacksonville is hopeful that C Brad Meester, G Chris Naeole, and S Reggie
Nelson will be returning to action for this game after its bye week. However,
Cleveland (16-6 last 22 vs. the spread) also benefited health-wise from its recent
bye week and seems ready to rejoin the AFC playoff chase if only Browns can
get QB Derek Anderson (14 of 37 at Wash. last week) back on track.
(05-Jacksonville -3 20-14...SR: Jacksonville 8-2)

***OVER THE TOTAL NY Giants 27 - PITTSBURGH 26—Winners of two
of last three Super Bowls. Can the 2008 Steeler OL, with no big-play threat of
Willie Parker (check status) behind it, keep the attacking N.Y. pass rushers off
Ben Roethlisberger? Remember, Giants’ offensive coordinator Steve
Spagnuolo is a pupil of the Eagles’ Jimmy Johnson, who battered Pittsburgh
QBs for nine sacks a month ago in Philly. G-men warmed up with six sacks vs.
S.F. last week and are surely deeper at RB, while Eli was able to throw just fine
despite bruised chest. Steelers “over” 2-0 at home TY and “over” 43-14-1 last
58 at Heinz Field!!!
(04-Pittsburgh -10 33-30...SR: NY Giants 43-28-3)

SAN FRANCISCO 23 - Seattle 17—S.F. offense suffering from problems
with sacks (28) and turnovers (-8), while Mike Holmgren can’t seem to keep his
beloved offense healthy in his final year in Seattle. Seahawks have garnered
only 187, 177 & 176 total yards, respectively, in their last three games. Seattle
blew a 17-6 lead in the first meeting TY, losing at home in OT despite outrushing
the 49ers 169-93, but turning loose J.T. O’Sullivan for several key plays
in the second half. Niners only 1-2-1 when favored the last 2+Ys, but they have
a few more weapons going for them than crippled Hawks.
(08-S. Fr. 33-SEA. 30 (OT)...Se.22-20 Se.34/169 Sf.23/93 Sf.20/32/0/272 Se.18/36/2/182 Sf.1 Se.1)
(07-Sea. 23-S. FR. 3...Se.17-9 Sf.19/109 Se.37/93 Se.23/32/1/278 Sf.12/34/2/75 Se.0 Sf.1)
(07-SEA. 24-S. Fr. 0...Se.27-6 Se.36/106 Sf.16/79 Se.27/40/1/274 Sf.12/28/0/94 Se.1 Sf.2)
(08-S. Fran. +6' 33-30 (OT); 07-Sea. -2 23-3, SEA. -9' 24-0...SR: Seattle 10-9)

WRITE-IN GAME
HOUSTON 34 - Cincinnati 17 [Schedule re-arrangement due to due
Hurricane Ike]—Houston did everything but blow out the Lions last week, with
only a Matt Schaub fumble in the red zone keeping the game from being a first
half rout. Detroit then used a couple of 54-yard FGs and a 96-yard TD pass to
come in the back door. With Schaub completing 26 of 31 vs. the Lions, can’t
count on Ryan Fitzpatrick (0-3 vs. the spread as a starter vs. Browns, Jets,
Steelers) to keep pace. (05-CIN. +9' 16 - Hou. 10...SR: Cincy 3-0)

MONDAY, OCTOBER 27

*Indianapolis 24 - TENNESSEE 23—Indy is clearly not the team of recent
years. Peyton Manning has only 8 TDP vs. 7 ints. The OL has been banged up,
Joseph Addai is expected to miss another game, and Marvin Harrison doesn’t
seem to be his old self. The DL is undersized, and 2007 defensive player of the
year Bob Sanders is out. In LY’s 16-10 Titan victory in Game 16, Tennessee
needed to win, while the Colts did not, with Manning completing 14 of 16 before
taking a seat. But it’s now do-or-die for one of the league’s proudest teams,
which is 8-4 vs. the spread the last 5+Ys as a road dog. Titans 6-0 SU & vs the
spread in 2008, but their schedule has hardly been imposing. Let’s see how
they cope with Indy’s desperation shot. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-Indy 22-TENN. 20...I.23-19 T.34/141 I.22/81 I.28/42/1/300 T.17/27/0/172 I.0 T.2)
(07-Tenn. 16-INDY 10...T.25-13 T.39/98 I.10/46 T.24/31/0/258 I.25/40/0/148 T.2 I.1)
(07-Indianapolis -7 22-20, Tennessee -4' 16-10...SR: Indianapolis 15-12)

[lucid_dreamer]

sorry if Jets are not the play, just saw it on another forum, cannot confirm in anyway

[lucid_dreamer]

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY

(NFC GOY)--- PHILADELPHIA -9.5 over Atlanta

The Falcons are 0-8 ATS vs. teams that average 5.65 ypp or better, while the Eagles are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 5-0 ATS off a bye week if vs. a .666 or better opponent. The Eagles traditionally have been a good team coming off a bye week as they are 11-3 ATS with a week of rest, including an 8-1 ATS mark in their last 9 off a bye, allowing just 8.8 ppg in those last 9 with rest. The Eagles have also gone 4-0 ATS the last 4 times they played Atlanta here, winning by an average of 16 ppg. The Eagles defense has been tough all year, ranking 7th overall and 11th in scoring and will be taking on an Atlanta offense that is 9th overall and 15th in scoring. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has been solid this year for them, but mostly at home and he has not seen the kind of blitzing schemes that Jimmy Johnson and this Eagles defense will throw at him. The Eagle offense ranks 10th overall, 4th in passing and 4th in scoring and they should be getting back Westbrook for this one, so look for them to have a big day vs. an Atlanta defense that is 25th overall and 26th vs. the pass. They do allow just 21.2 ppg, but I see the Eagles putting at least 30 on the board for them. Matt Ryan has struggled on the road this year and will have all sorts of problems vs. JJ's defense, so I see them having a hard time reaching double digits in this one. Eagles roll easily.


4 UNIT PLAYS

Total Of The Week--- NY Jets/ Kansas City Over 39

The Over is 8-1 when KC is off 4 consecutive games in which they allowed 6 ypp or more and 6-0 in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home, while the Over is 13-3 when the Jets are off 2 consecutive games where they had a TO margin of -2 or worse and 4-1 in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Both teams have given up their share of points this year, as the Chiefs have allowed 27.5 ppg, while the Jets have allowed 24.3 ppg. The Chiefs have not been great on offense this year, but they may get a spark from 3rd string QB Tyler Thigpen, who will be facing the 24th ranked passing defense of the Jets. NY Can score points as they are 8th in the league in scoring at 25.7 ppg and they should have a good day vs. the 31st ranked overall defense of the Chiefs. KC?s offense should be able to get at least 17 in this one while I can see the Jets putting up 27 or more. This game easily flies over the posted total.


Underdog Of The Week--- Cincinnati +9 over Houston

The Texans are 4-15 ATS off a home win and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games in October. Houston Checks in at 2-4 on the season and yet they are huge home favs for their 2nd week in a row. Of the two wins, one was by just 1 point, while the other was by 7 and this team allows nearly 30 ppg on the year. Certainly not good enough numbers to warrant being such a big fav, even though they are facing the 0-7 Bengals. Yes the Bengals are 0-7, but this team has played hard as evidenced by their game vs. Dallas and they were in the Jets game for most of it. Last week they had a topugh go of it vs. Pittsburgh, but Houston is not the Steelers. Last week Houston struggled some with the Lions and I feel the Bengals are better than the Motor City boys and they will be able to keep this game to Under a TD.


3 UNIT PLAYS

Philadelphia/ Atlanta Under 45.5

The Under is 0-9 in the Falcons last 9 games off a bye and 10-2 in their last 12 on grass fields, while the Under is 17-3 when Philly is off a bye week and 25-7 in the month of October. This OU line seem a bit high considering the Eagles have allowed just 8.8 ppg in their last 9 post bye games and they are facing a QB that has not seen the kind of blitzing schemes he will see today. I really don?t see the Falcons getting double digits in this one so in order for this one to go over the Eagles will have to put 35 plus on the board. They have an offense to do it, but may not get as many chances as the Falcons should be running the ball more in this one and that will help the clock run. I see a 30-7 final in this one.


Buffalo -1 over MIAMI

Buffalo is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. teams with a losing record and 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS win, while Miami is 2-11 ATS at home off 1 or more losses in a row and 6-22-2 ATS in their last 30 vs. AFC East. The Bills are rolling right now as they sit at 5-1 with a 1 game lead over the Pats in the AFC East. The Bills offense has taken off this year as they are 13th in passing and 10th in scoring putting up 24.3 ppg, compared to the 16 ppg, 19 ppg and 1`7 ppg they have put up the last 3 years. The defense has been very good this year for the Bills as they rank 10th overall, 8th vs. the pass and 10th in points allowed at 19.7 ppg. One look at last weeks game vs. the top scoring team in the league (San Diego) will show you just how good this defense is right now. A few weeks back the Dolphins unleashed their wildcat offense on the Pats and it was a huge success, but teams have caught on a bit as the Miami rushing numbers have decreased in each of the last 3 weeks. Miami is week vs. the pass as they rank 27th in that department and should have all sorts of problems vs. the Buffalo passing attack that has taken off. Miami has looked better this year, but Buffalo has the edges on both sides of the ball, plus the ST edge and they have momentum. Too much for Miami to handle here.

Teaser Of The Week--- 3 Team 6 Point Teaser: Philly -3.5, St Louis/ New England Under 48.5 & Cleveland +13


2 UNIT PLAYS

Arizona/ Carolina Over 43

The Over is 23-8 when Arizona has won 2 of their last 3 games and 12-2 after scoring 25+ points in 2 consecutive games, while the Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games in Week 8. The Arizona Cardinals are the top scoring team in the league at 29.5 ppg, but their defense has not been as good as they are allowing 24 ppg thus far. That offense will have a tough test this week vs. the 3rd ranked scoring defense of the Panthers, but I do see them still getting about 21 in this one. Carolina?s offense scores just 21 ppg overall this year, but at home that number jumps to 27 ppg. I see about 48 points in this one.

3 Team 10 Point Teaser--- Cleveland +17, Pittsburgh +7 & Cincinnati +19


1 UNIT PLAY

3 Team 6 Point Teaser--- Oakland/ Baltimore Under 41.5, Arizona/ Carolina Over 37 & San Diego/ New Orleans Over 40

[Can'tPickaWinner]

SPORTS ADVISORS

Oakland (2-4, 3-3 ATS) at Baltimore (3-3, 4-2 ATS)

The Raiders, who haven’t won consecutive games since the first week of last December, look to do just that when they travel to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Ravens.

Oakland topped the New York Jets 16-13 in overtime last week, giving the SU winner a 13-2 ATS mark in the Raiders’ last 15 games (5-1 this year). QB JaMarcus Russell (17 of 30, 203 yards, 1 TD) was hardly brilliant but did have a turnover-free game, while the Raiders forced three turnovers, including two Brett Favre INTs. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski won it with a career-best 57-yard field goal.

Baltimore rolled past Miami 27-13 as a three-point road pup to snap a three-game SU slide and a two-game pointspread skid, and the SU winner is now 9-1 ATS in the Ravens’ last 10 games (5-1 this year). QB Joe Flacco (17 of 23, 232 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) and RB Willis McGahee (19 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) had solid games, the Ravens defense gave up just 71 rushing yards and LB Terrell Suggs returned an INT for a score.

Baltimore is 2-1 SU and ATS in three meetings with Oakland this decade, including a 28-6 home rout two years ago giving 12½ points.

The Raiders are on ATS declines of 6-12 in the Eastern time zone, 8-16 as a non-division road ‘dog, 8-17 in October and 2-7 after a pointspread win. The Ravens are on a 5-2 ATS run overall – all against AFC foes – and are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a non-division home chalk, but they are in a 1-8 ATS rut as a favorite.

The over for Oakland is on tears of 9-3 overall, 8-0 in October and 5-2 on the road, and the over for Baltimore is on streaks of 9-4 overall, 9-3 against the AFC and 5-2 at home. However, in this rivalry, the under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE


San Diego (3-4 SU and ATS) vs. New Orleans (3-4, 4-3 ATS)

(at London)

The Chargers and the Saints, both trying to regain their playoff form, travel across the pond for a non-conference clash at Wembley Stadium.

San Diego managed just seven points in each half at Buffalo last Sunday, losing 23-14 as a one-point ‘dog to give the SU winner a 24-1-1 ATS mark in the Bolts’ last 26 games (6-0-1 ATS this season). QB Philip Rivers (22 of 29, 208 yards, 2 TDs) had decent numbers, but he accounted for all three of his team’s turnovers, with two lost fumbles and a late-game INT with San Diego inside the Bills’ the 10-yard line. The Chargers were outgained 370-263, lost the time-of-possession battle by 11 minutes and forced no turnovers.

New Orleans got belted 30-7 at Carolina as a three-point ‘dog, as the SU winner improved to 16-1 ATS in the Saints’ last 17 games (6-1 this season). QB Drew Brees (21 of 39, 231 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) was mediocre, with his INT leading to a third-quarter TD for Carolina, and the Saints failed to score in the second half.

These teams haven’t met since 2004, when San Diego claimed a 43-17 win as a 6½-point home favorite. It will be the first time Saints QB Drew Brees has faced his former team since the Chargers allowed him to leave as a free agent after the 2005 season.

Despite last week’s setback, the Chargers are still on a lengthy 47-23-3 ATS run overall, and they sport additional positive pointspread streaks of 4-0-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 against losing teams and 20-6-3 after a SU loss, but they are on ATS slides of 1-8 in non-division roadies and 2-5 against the NFC. The Saints are on ATS runs of 4-0 after a SU loss, 5-1 after a pointspread setback and 9-5 in non-division roadies.

The over for San Diego is on streaks of 15-5 on the road, 7-2 after a SU loss and 11-5 against losing teams, and for New Orleans, the over is on a 9-2-1 stretch overall and is 6-1 in its last seven against losing teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Kansas City (1-5, 2-4 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (3-3 SU and ATS)

The Jets and QB Brett Favre look to get back above .500 when they host the hapless Chiefs in East Rutherford, N.J.

New York is coming off a 16-13 overtime loss at Oakland as a three-point road chalk, scoring just three points in the first three quarters before scrambling to force the extra session. The SU winner is now 7-0 ATS this season for the Jets. Against the Raiders, Favre was below average, going 21 of 38 for just 197 yards, with no TDs and two INTs, as New York lost the turnover battle 3-0 in failing to take advantage of RB Thomas Jones’ 159-yard rushing effort.

Kansas City got shutout for three quarters in last week’s 34-10 blowout loss to Tennessee as a nine-point home underdog. The Chiefs’ QB by committee – Brodie Croyle started but got hurt, then Damon Huard got dinged, bringing on Tyler Thigpen – combined for 214 passing yards as K.C. finished with just 272 total yards, while allowing 455.

Kansas City is on a 3-0 ATS run (2-1 SU) in this series, losing 13-10 in overtime at the end of last season but covering as a four-point road ‘dog.

The Jets are on positive ATS streaks of 5-1 as a non-division home chalk, 6-2 as a favorite of six or more points, 4-1 after a non-cover and 6-2 after a SU loss. The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, but they are on ATS slides of 4-11 overall, 2-9 on grass and 3-7 after a SU loss.

The under for New York is on stretches of 8-2 overall, 8-1 against the AFC and 5-1 at home, and the under is also 10-4 in Kansas City’s last 14 road games. But the over is 12-4 in the Chiefs’ last 16 October contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS


Buffalo (5-1, 4-2 ATS) at Miami (2-4, 3-3 ATS)

The Bills aim to keep their surprising season rolling and remain atop the AFC East standings when they head to South Beach to take on the Dolphins in a divisional battle.

Buffalo came out of its bye week and dropped San Diego 23-14 as a one-point home chalk, bouncing back from a blowout loss at Arizona. QB Trent Edwards, who was knocked out of the Arizona game with a concussion, came back and had a strong outing, completing 25 of 30 passes for 261 yards with a TD and no turnovers, and the Bills forced three turnovers en route to winning the time-of-possession battle by 11 minutes.

Miami tumbled to Baltimore 27-13 as a three-point home favorite, halting a three-game spread-covering streak. QB Chad Pennington (24 of 35, 295 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had good numbers, but his INT was returned for a second-quarter touchdown, and the Dolphins managed just 71 rushing yards.

Buffalo is on a 7-0-1 ATS tear in this rivalry, winning and cashing in both clashes last year, including a 13-10 win at Miami to push as a three-point chalk. Buffalo is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six contests in Miami, and the favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight series meetings.

The Bills are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 8-2 in division play, 13-5-1 after a spread-cover, 11-5-1 after a SU win and 39-18-3 against losing teams. The Dolphins are on a batch of ATS skids, including 11-29-1 at home, 2-12-1 in home division games, 6-22-2 overall in AFC East contests and 2-5 after a SU loss.

The under is 10-4 in Buffalo’s last 14 games against losing teams and 7-2 in its last nine on grass, but the over for Miami is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 7-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 after a non-cover and 7-3 against the AFC.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO


Tampa Bay (5-2 SU and ATS) at Dallas (4-3, 2-5 ATS)

The flailing Cowboys try to right the ship when they welcome the Buccaneers to Texas Stadium.

Dallas got whacked 34-14 by lowly St. Louis a week ago as a nine-point road chalk for its fourth straight pointspread setback. QB Brad Johnson (17 of 34, 234 yards, 1 TD), the 40-year-old backup subbing for Tony Romo (broken pinkie), threw three INTs, and the Cowboys trailed 21-7 at the end of the first quarter and never drew closer. Dallas lost the turnover battle 4-0 and the defense allowed 160 rushing yards and three TDs to Rams RB Steven Jackson.

Tampa Bay topped Seattle 20-10 last Sunday night but couldn’t get the cash as a 10½-point home favorite. However, the SU winner is still 22-2 ATS in the Bucs’ last 24 games. Against the Seahawks, QB Jeff Garcia (27 of 36, 310 yards, 1 TD) was solid, and the Buccaneers yielded just 176 total yards while rolling up a whopping 23-minute edge in time of possession.

Tampa is 3-1 SU in four meetings this decade against Dallas, but the teams have split the cash in those contests, with the host covering each time. Most recently, the Cowboys rolled 38-10 in November 2006 as a 12½-point home chalk.

The Cowboys are 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 as a non-division home favorite, but otherwise they are on a bevy of ATS downfalls, including 0-5 at home, 0-4 after a SU loss, 1-9 against NFC foes, 1-7 after a non-cover and 1-5 against winning teams. Conversely, the Bucs are on positive ATS stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 against winning teams and 4-1 against the NFC, but they are in a 5-13 ATS slide as a non-division road ‘dog.

The over for Dallas has cashed in four straight overall and is on additional runs of 7-1 in October, 4-1 on grass and 4-1 against the NFC, and the over has been the play in six of Tampa Bay’s last seven roadies.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Atlanta (4-2 SU and ATS) at Philadelphia (3-3, 4-2 ATS)

The Falcons will try to keep their stunning turnaround going when they travel to Lincoln Financial Field for a meeting with the Eagles.

Atlanta took last week off after its shocking, last-second 22-20 victory over Chicago as a three-point home pup Oct. 12, giving the SU winner a 15-1 ATS mark in the Falcons’ last 16 contests. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (22 of 30, 301 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) had his breakout game, which included leading a two-play, six-second drive that ended with Jason Elam kicking the game-winning field goal as time expired after the Bears had taken a 20-19 lead on a TD with just 11 seconds remaining.

Philadelphia also had its bye last week after dropping San Francisco 40-26 giving 4½ points. The Eagles forced three turnovers (two INTs, one fumble) en route to 23 unanswered fourth-quarter points, erasing a 26-17 deficit. QB Donovan McNabb (23 of 36, 280 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a good enough day to help Philly halt a two-game SU and ATS hiccup.

Atlanta has cashed in its last two meetings against Philadelphia (1-1 SU), snapping a 6-0-1 ATS run by the Eagles in this rivalry. In the most recent meeting two seasons ago, the Eagles won 24-17 but came up short as a nine-point home chalk.

The Falcons are on ATS tears of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after a bye, 11-4 on grass, 7-3 as a non-division ‘dog and 5-2 against the NFC. The Eagles are 9-3 ATS the last 12 years after their bye and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven against NFC foes, but they have failed to cash in nine of their last 13 home starts.

The over for Atlanta is on a 10-3 spree overall, but the under is on runs of 33-13-1 on the highway and 9-1-1 coming off a bye. For Philadelphia, the under is on stretches of 5-0 at home, 15-2 after a bye and 14-6 on grass. Finally, the under is 4-0-1 in the last five head-to-head battles in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


St. Louis (2-4 SU and ATS) at New England (4-2, 3-3 ATS)

The Rams ride their two-game winning streak into Gillette Stadium for a meeting against the defending AFC champion Patriots.

St. Louis pummeled Dallas 34-14 as a heavy nine-point home underdog a week ago, winning and cashing for the second straight week and giving the SU winner a 16-1 ATS mark in the Rams’ last 17 games (6-0 ATS this season). QB Marc Bulger (13 of 18, 163 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) had modest stats, but that’s mostly because RB Steven Jackson blew up for 160 rushing yards and three TDs on 25 carries, including a 56-yard scoring jaunt. St. Louis also won the turnover battle, 4-0.

New England rumbled over Denver 41-7 on Monday night as a three-point home favorite, bouncing back from a 30-10 beatdown at San Diego. The Pats were bolstered by forcing five turnovers – including four in the first half – and kept Denver from scoring until a meaningless fourth-quarter TD. QB Matt Cassel (18 of 24, 185 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) was efficient and effective, and RB Sammy Morris racked up 138 yards, all in the first half before leaving with an injury.

In three meetings this decade, including the Super Bowl after the 2001 season, New England is 3-0 ATS against St. Louis (2-1 SU), though the two teams haven’t met since the Patriots’ 40-22 road win as a two-point road pup in 2004. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four clashes.

Despite the Rams’ recent success, they still carry negative ATS trends of 2-7 overall, 2-11 in the Eastern time zone, 2-10 against winning teams and 3-6 against AFC foes. Likewise, the Patriots are on ATS skids of 3-9 overall, 0-5 after a spread-cover, 0-5 against losing teams, 1-8 after a SU win and 1-7 at home.

For St. Louis, the over is on runs of 4-1 overall and 5-1 against winning teams, but the under is on 8-3 in its last 11 roadies. Meanwhile, the under for New England is on streaks of 8-3-2 overall, 6-1-2 at home and 4-1 after a SU win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


Arizona (4-2 SU and ATS) at Carolina (5-2, 4-2-1 ATS)

The Cardinals gun for their third straight victory when they make the lengthy trek to Charlotte to face the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.

Arizona, which had its bye last week, beat Dallas 30-24 in overtime two weeks ago as a 4½-point home ‘dog, winning on a short TD return of a blocked point on the only possession in the extra session. That made the SU winner 14-1 ATS in the Cards’ last 15 starts. Arizona finished with 276 total yards, while allowing 374, and they lost the turnover battle 3-1, but they had two special teams TDs – a 93-yard kickoff return to open the game, and the blocked-punt TD to end it.

Carolina ripped New Orleans 30-7 as a three-point home chalk last week, making the SU winner 21-1-1 ATS in the Panthers’ last 23 games (6-0-1 ATS this year) dating to the 2007 season opener. QB Jake Delhomme (14 of 22, 195 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) and WR Steve Smith (6 catches, 122 yards, 1 TD) lead the way, and the Panthers won the turnover battle 2-0 and shutout the Saints in the second half.

Carolina is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, following a 3-0 ATS stretch by Arizona. Last year, Carolina posted a 25-10 road victory catching six points.

The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and 5-1 ATS in their last six against winning teams, but they are on pointspread slides of 8-16 in the Eastern time zone and 1-4 in their last five on the highway. The Panthers, meanwhile, are on ATS runs of 8-3-1 overall, 6-0-1 at home, 4-1-1 against winning teams and 6-2-1 against NFC opponents.

The over for Arizona is on streaks of 35-17 overall, 38-15 on the road, 5-1 against winning teams, and 7-2 in NFC play. On the flip side, the under for Carolina is on a 6-0 tear and is on further stretches of 5-0 in conference play, 5-1 against winning teams and 22-8-1 at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA


Washington (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at Detroit (0-6, 2-4 ATS)

The Redskins hope to get their sluggish offense back on track with a trip to Ford Field to face the winless Lions.

Washington bounced back from a stunning 19-17 home loss to St. Louis by holding off Cleveland 14-11, but the Redskins failed cover again, this time as a seven-point favorite, marking the first time in 14 games that the winner failed to cash in a Washington game. QB Jason Campbell (14 of 23, 164 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) wasn’t particularly impressive against the Browns, but RB Clinton Portis was, ripping off 175 rushing yards and a TD on 27 carries, and the defense allowed just 236 total yards.

Detroit’s woes continued in last week’s 28-21 loss at Houston, but as an 11-point pup, the Lions cashed for the second straight week after an 0-4 ATS start to 2008. QB Dan Orlovsky completed just 12 of 25 passes, but he made the most of them, netting 265 yards and a TD -- on a 96-yard hookup with Calvin Johnson. The Lions had no turnovers, but they lost the time of possession battle, 40:04-19:56.

Washington has won and covered the last two in this series, including a 34-3 rout last year as a four-point home favorite. The Redskins are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, but the home team is on a 6-1 ATS streak.

The Redskins are on ATS runs of 4-1 against the NFC, 6-2 after a SU win and 5-2 as a road favorite, but they are on a 1-6 ATS slide against losing teams. Meanwhile, despite back-to-back spread-covers the last two weeks, Detroit still harbors nothing but negative ATS trends, including 3-11 overall, 9-19-1 in NFC play, 8-18 as a single-digit ‘dog, 1-5 at home, 3-8 after a SU loss and 5-11-1 after a spread-cover.

The under for Washington is on a 4-1 run, and the under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. But the over has cashed in nine of Detroit’s last 12 games overall and is on further runs for the Lions of 4-1 at home and 5-0 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON


Cleveland (2-4, 4-2 ATS) at Jacksonville (3-3, 2-4 ATS)

The rested Jaguars will attempt to get back above .500 when they take on the Browns at Alltel Stadium.

Jacksonville dumped Denver 24-17 two weeks ago as a 3½-point road ‘dog before taking last week off. QB David Garrard (25 of 34, 276 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) and RB Maurice Jones-Drew (22 carries, 125 yards, 2 TDs) led the way, but the Jags mostly benefited from forcing three first-half turnovers, which they converted into 10 points.

A week after a shocking blowout home win over the Giants, Cleveland had a dismal offensive effort in a 14-11 loss to Washington, but the Browns covered as a seven-point road pup for their third straight ATS win. QB Derek Anderson completed just 14 of 37 passes for 136 yards and a TD, and though Cleveland had no turnovers, it was still outgained 351-236.

Jacksonville is 6-2 SU in the last eight clashes with Cleveland dating to 1999, but the two teams have split the cash in those contests. In their last meeting in 2005, the Jags scored a 20-14 road win laying three points. In fact, the visitor is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry.

The Jaguars are 0-3 ATS at Alltel this season and are on additional pointspread skids of 1-6 on grass, 1-4 after a SU win and 2-5 against losing teams. The Browns, meanwhile, are on ATS tears of 16-5 overall, 8-2 after a SU loss, 14-4 on grass and 8-3 after a spread-cover.

For Jacksonville, the over is on streaks of 19-7-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 10-3-2 in AFC contests and 10-4 coming off the bye. On the flip side, the under for Cleveland is on a 10-2 overall streak, including 6-1 against AFC opponents, 5-1 on the highway and 9-2 on grass.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND


N.Y. Giants (5-1, 4-2 ATS) at Pittsburgh (5-1, 3-3 ATS)

The defending Super Bowl-champion Giants step outside the NFC for a non-conference clash against the Steelers at Heinz Field.

New York beat San Francisco 29-17 last Sunday, narrowly grabbing the cash on a late safety as a healthy 10-point home favorite to give the SU winner a 16-2 ATS mark in the Giants’ last 18 games (5-1 this season). QB Eli Manning (16 of 31, 161 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) had his second straight sub-par game as the Giants finished with just 273 total yards. But New York allowed only 253 yards and won the turnover battle, 3-0.

Pittsburgh pounded Cincinnati 38-10 laying nine points on the road to win and cover for the second straight week. QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 of 28, 216 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) played well, and backup RB Mewelde Moore (20 carries, 120 yards, 2 TDs) had a big rushing day and also had a TD catch. The Steelers defense allowed just 212 total yards.

These two teams haven’t met since 2004, when Pittsburgh won 33-30 but New York got the cash as a 10-point pup.

The Giants are on a 20-8 ATS spree and sport additional positive ATS streaks of 6-0 against winning teams, 8-2 on grass, 7-2 after a SU win, 7-2 after a spread-cover and 20-8 in roadies, though they get upset in their most recent road trip to Cleveland. The Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against the NFC, but they are on pointspread dips of 1-4 against winning teams and 1-4 after a spread-cover.

The over is 4-1 in New York’s last five overall, but the under is 9-4 in its last 13 road games. The over for the Steelers is on stretches of 8-2 overall, 5-1 against winning teams and 42-15-2 at Heinz Field.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Seattle (1-5, 2-4 ATS) at San Francisco (2-5 SU and ATS)

The woeful Seahawks, who reached the playoffs last year but have been besieged by QB injuries this season, travel down the Pacific Coast for an NFC West matchup with the 49ers at Monster Park.

Seattle lost to Tampa Bay 20-10, but its lone touchdown in the fourth quarter allowed the team to cover as a 10½-point road ‘dog. Despite that result, the SU winner is still 23-1 ATS in the Seahawks’ last 24 contests dating to the 2007 season opener. Against the Bucs, Seattle got outgained 402-176, and backup QB Seneca Wallace (12 of 23, 73 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) struggled in place of Matt Hasselbeck (back, knee), who remains out.

San Francisco lost to the New York Giants 29-17, failing to cover as a 10-point underdog by taking a safety late in the game, meaning the SU winner has now covered in each of the Niners’ last 22 games gave the SU winner a whopping 22-0 ATS record in the 49ers’ last 22 starts. QB J.T. O’Sullivan (16 of 28, 256 yards, 1 TD) continued to struggle, committing all three of his team’s turnovers (two INTs, 1 fumble), with the fumble booted out of the back of the end zone for the Giants’ spread-covering safety.

San Francisco posted a 33-30 overtime win last month at Seattle as a 6½-point road pup, after the Seahawks easily won and cashed in both of last year’s meetings.

The Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven division games, but otherwise are on ATS skids of 2-5 overall, 0-5 after a spread-cover, 1-5 on the highway and 5-21 in October. The 49ers haven’t been any better at the betting window, carrying negative ATS tends of 0-4 overall, 0-4-1 in home division games, 1-4 after a non-cover, 1-4 after a SU loss, 4-10 at Monster Park and 4-12 in NFC play.

The under is 4-1 in the last five clashes between these two, and it is 10-3 in San Fran’s last 13 division contests. But the over for Seattle is on runs of 7-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 against NFC foes, 4-1 on the road and 23-10-1 against losing teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


Cincinnati (0-7, 2-5 ATS) at Houston (2-4, 1-5 ATS)

The freefalling Bengals head to the Lone Star State in search of their first win when they face the Texans at Reliant Stadium.

Cincinnati is coming off a 38-10 loss to Pittsburgh as a nine-point home ‘dog, failing to cover for the second straight week. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, continuing to sub for the injured Carson Palmer (elbow), generated just 164 passing yards, and the Bengals finished with a meager 212 total yards while allowing 375.

Houston held off Detroit 28-21 for its second straight victory, but the Texans couldn’t cash as 11-point favorites, their third straight non-cover. QB Matt Schaub (26 of 31, 267 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs) had a solid game, but the huge key was time of possession, as Houston doubled Detroit by holding the ball for 40 minutes.

These teams have met just three times, with Cincy going 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS).

The Bengals are in ATS ruts of 0-5 against the AFC, 2-10-1 in October and 1-5 against losing teams. The Texans are also on a handful of pointspread slides, including 1-5 overall, 0-8 in October, 1-4 against the AFC, 1-4 after a non-cover and 10-22 after a SU win.

The under is 9-4 in Cincinnati’s last 13 games, but the over is 6-0 this season for Houston and is on additional runs for the Texans of 19-7-1 overall, 7-0 on grass, 7-0 against AFC opponents, 4-0 at home and 11-5-1 against losing teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Central Florida (2-4, 2-2-1 ATS) at (22) Tulsa (7-0, 5-1 ATS)

Central Florida is the latest team that will try to slow down the nation’s most prolific offense when it visits 22nd-ranked Tulsa in a rare Sunday night game between Conference USA rivals.

Tulsa ripped UTEP 77-35 last Saturday, piling up a ridiculous 791 total yards in easily covering as a 20½-point home chalk. The Golden Hurricane have won eight straight games (6-1 ATS) dating back to a 63-7 rout of Bowling Green in last year’s GMAC Bowl, outgaining all eight opponents by at least 100 yards, including a whopping 438-yard edge last week against UTEP.

Tulsa leads the nation in scoring offense (56.6 points per game) and total offense (624.7 total yards per game), and behind QB David Johnson (69 percent completion rate, 2,397 yards, 31 TDs, 8 INTs), the Golden Hurricane are fifth nationally in passing (357 ypg) and first in passing TDs.

Central Florida has been idle since Oct. 11, when it went to Miami and lost 20-14, but covered as a 17-point road underdog. The Golden Knights have lost four of their last five overall, and they’ve been outgained in all five contests. UCF averages just 17.7 points per game, and its 248.3 total ypg is worst in the nation, in contrast to Tulsa’s top-ranked offense.

Central Florida beat the Golden Hurricane twice last year by near identical scores, winning 44-23 as a 2½-point home favorite in October, then prevailing 44-25 as a 7½-point home chalk in the Conference USA championship game in December. The SU winner has cashed in all three series meetings between these schools.

The Golden Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five against winning teams, but they’re 11-23-1 ATS in their past 35 road games and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 on artificial turf. Conversely, Tulsa sports positive pointspread runs of 5-0 at home and 12-5 after a spread-cover, but the Hurricane are 2-6 ATS in their last eight October contests.

For Central Florida, the under is on runs of 9-4 overall, 4-1 in conference and 4-0 in October. But as expected, high-powered Tulsa is in the mist of over runs of 4-1 overall and 6-0-1 on turf. Lastly, despite combined totals of 67 and 69 points, last year’s two meetings between these schools stayed under the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TULSA


WORLD SERIES

Tampa Bay (8-6) at Philadelphia (9-3)

The Phillies look to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the World Series tonight when they send Joe Blanton (9-12, 4.69 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park for Game 5, while the Rays will counter with Andy Sonnanstine (15-9, 4.32 ERA).

The teams waited out a 90-minute rain delay prior to the start of Game 3 on Saturday, then played a classic, with Philadelphia pulling out a 5-4 victory on a bases-loaded infield single by Carlos Ruiz with no outs in the bottom of the ninth to take control of this best-of-7 series.

The Phillies are 23-6 in their last 29 at Citizen Bank Park (5-0 in the playoffs), and they’re on additional hot streaks of 37-16 overall, 13-3 on Sundays, 26-10 versus righty starters, 20-7 against winning teams, 6-0 with Blanton on the hill overall and 5-0 when Blanton starts at home. However, Charlie Manuel’s club is still only 19-37 in its last 55 interleague games.

The Rays are still on runs of 6-3 in interleague play, 8-3 against the N.L. East, 5-2 in National League ballparks and 35-17 versus right-handed starters. They’re also 22-12 with Sonnanstine on the hill this year and 5-0 in his last five starts against N.L. foes.

Despite being down 2-1 in this series, Tampa Bay has still won nine of the last 13 meetings with Philadelphia.

Sonnanstine pitched the Rays 13-4 blowout win over the Red Sox in his most recent outing on Oct. 14, giving up four runs (three earned) on six hits in 7 1/3 innings. He’s 2-0 with 3.46 ERA in his first two career postseason starts, both of which came on the road. Including those two outings, Sonnanstine is 8-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 18 starts on the highway this year. Tonight marks his first career start against the Phillies.

Blanton last pitched 13 days ago at Dodger Stadium, getting a no-decision in his team’s come-from-behind 7-5 victory over Los Angeles in Game 4 of the NLCS. In that contest, the burly right-hander gave up three runs on seven hits and four walks in five innings. Including a 6-2 series-clinching victory over the Brewers in the divisional round, Blanton is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two October efforts.

Blanton, who was acquired from the A’s in July, is 5-0 with 4.08 ERA in 15 starts with Philadelphia, 11 of which the Phillies have won. At Citizens Bank Park, he’s 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA. Finally, Blanton faced the Rays eight times during his tenure in Oakland, going 2-3 with a hefty 6.05 ERA.

The under is 4-1 in Sonnanstine’s last five on Sunday, but the over is 5-2 in Blanton’s last seven trips to the mound overall.

The under is 7-3-3 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams, including 2-0-1 in this series. Additionally, the under is on runs of 4-0-1 for the Rays overall, 8-3-1 for the Phillies overall, 9-3-1 for the Phillies in the playoffs, 9-4-1 for the Phillies against right-handed starters and 9-2-1 for the Phillies in interleague play. Conversely, the over is 8-3-1 in Tampa’s last 12 road games and 25-8-2 in its last 35 in N.L. parks.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER

[lucid_dreamer]

Ted Sevransky

San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints Under 45.5

Last year, when the Giants and Dolphins met at Wembley Stadium in London, the field conditions could not have been worse. Wembley was built for soccer, not professional football. The description of last year’s game was “a mud-caked slog through the unfriendly pitch at torn-up Wembley Stadium.” Dolphins kicker Jay Feely: “The field was like ice.” Both teams were jet-lagged and inconvenienced travelling overseas. It was not pretty football. We should expect more of the same in 2008.

If you’ve ever been to London in the Fall, you know already that it rains almost every day. The lookahead forecast for London on Sunday shows a likelihood of rain falling throughout the game, leaving the field in ‘quagmire’ condition once again. Yes, the Saints and Chargers both have explosive, high powered offenses. But let’s not forget that these two offenses combined to produce just 21 points in good conditions this past weekend. And each team’s defense has exceeded expectations in recent weeks as well.

After a streak of five consecutive ‘Overs’ to open the season, the Saints have now gone Under the total in each of the last two weeks, with the Chargers riding a three game Under streak of their own. In a game where staying healthy in ugly conditions is likely to be every bit as important as winning, look for both coaches to utilize conservative gameplans, leading to another low scoring affair. Take the Under.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Erin Rynning

20*Miami
10*Detroit
10* Cincy

[lucid_dreamer]

John Fina

Selection: Baltimore Ravens -8

Reason: Put us down on the Baltimore Ravens -8 for our Free NFL Selection on Sunday. The Baltimore Ravens are the way to go in this matchup. The Raiders are not that great of a team but they do have some strengths, one of which is their ground game. Oakland has 3 very skilled running backs but their passing game leaves a lot to be desired. Baltimore allows an average of 66.8 ypg and they are ranked second in the NFL in total defense and ranked first in rush defense. In 24 consecutive games, the Ravens have not allowed a single 100 yard rush which is an NFL high. The Ravens are spectacular at M&T Bank Stadium. At home they allowed all of their three opponents, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Tennessee, to 33 points combined. Baltimore's defense is simply to much for Raiders' QB JaMarcus Russell and his substandard wideouts. Oakland will also be disadvantaged by game time, which is earlier than they are accustomed to. This season, teams traveling from the Pacific Time Zone to the East Coast are 1-9 ATS. Derrick Burgess, the Raiders Star Pass Rusher, has been out of the last few games and its questionable whether he'll be present this game. Oakland's pass rush as well as the team's strength relies heavily upon Burgess and so obviously his absence will be detrimental for Oakland. It is important for Baltimore to put up the points to cover the touchdown spread but RB Willis McGahee is coming off his best game of the year so far. Rookie QB Joe Flacco has shown a big boost in confidence, has been a lot more aggressive lately, and coach John Harbaugh has him running more option plays. Flacco should have optimal field position from start to finish with the solid Raven defense, and the team morale is high after getting their first road victory. Conversely the Raiders will be in a letdown state after their win vs. the Jets that came during overtime; a win that was a team record field goal executed by Sebastian Janikowski. We will lay the points with the much superior team! Take the Baltimore Ravens -8!

Matt Rivers

For Sunday take the Bucs in Big D.

I sound like every square and their mother here piling on the wounded Cowboys but I just do not see Dallas being able to muster up enough offense behind Brad Johnson to win this game.

The Cowboys have absolutely no momentum at all coming into this thing and have a Quarterback who can't throw more than 15 yards at a time. Johnson makes Miami's Chad Pennington look like a great deep ball thrower and after the brutal blowout loss in St. Louis last week and the whole Pacman controversy and the injuries including Roy Williams the defender and Terrence Newman and Sam Hurd and on and on and on things are not going to come easy here for the Pokes.

Tampa meanwhile just continue to do its thing. Monte Kiffin has his defense flying around like always and Jeff Garcia has continued to show he is a quality leader.and has the offense playing very well thanks to its usual stout ground game no matter who is healthy and running the rock.

Dallas has enough talent to always have a chance to win on its home field but the Bucs are the team that has everything going its way unlike the home boys who right now are terrible. I do not see a 180 all of a sudden happening and therefore I'll take my chances on the visiting Buccaneers.

Chris Jordan

Atlanta at PHILADELPHIA -9

I know both teams are coming in off their bye week, and I know everyone is very high on young Matt Ryan, but I am much more comfortable with the Eagles getting this one done by a huge number.

The city of Philadelphia will be alive this weekend thanks to the World Series, and the Eagles will feed off of that. The NFC East is not as tight as everyone might have thought, now that preseason favorite Dallas is 4-3 after losing three of its last four games.

Philadelphia needs this win, and it needs to win big to provide some momentum before a Nov. 9th home meeting with the defending champion Giants.

The Eagles have a road game in Seattle on deck, so looking ahead is not an issue. And since they’re 9-3 against the books under coach Andy Reid after a bye week, I’d have to believe this team will be ready for a blowout win over the young Dirty Birds.

Quarterback Donovon McNabb has looked tremendous in what many believed would be a down year, ranking in eighth in passing with 1,576 yards, eight touchdown strikes versus three interceptions.

Philly has covered three of its last four meetings with the Falcons. The Eagles are also 4-1 against the number when hosting off a bye week and playing a team coming off straight-up win as an underdog. Let’s lay the points with the Eagles in this one.

1♦ EAGLES

[Can'tPickaWinner]

gus marone nfc blowout game of the year

carolina -4

[Can'tPickaWinner]

LOGICAL APPROACH


NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: PHILADELPHIA - 9 over Atlanta - Both teams are off of Byes. Atlanta has been a major surprise thus far with rookie QB Ryan leading the Falcons to a 4-2 record. Philly is just 3-3 but has had to deal with injuries, most notably to RB Westbrook, expected back for this game. The Eagles' aggressive defense should create some problems for the Falcons who have played poorly in 2 of 3 road games when the ground game struggled. The Philly offense, with a healthy Westbrook, is well balanced and potent, especially with QB McNabb healthy. Atlanta may well be a team on the rise but the Eagles are a mature, experienced and well coached team. Their defense will set the tempo for this game and is likely to force mistakes upon which the Philly offense will capitalize. Philadelphia wins 27-13.



Other Featured NFL Selections :

DALLAS - 4 over Tampa Bay - The uncertain status of Dallas QB Romo could create volatility in the line during the week but Dallas should ultimately be favored by more than a FG, less than a TD. This is a critical game for the 'Boys as they return from a pair of upset road losses at Arizona and St Louis and have a pair of Divisional road trips on deck at the Giants and Washington. They were clearly unfocused and unprepared last week in St Louis and took a scolding from team owner Jones afterwards. Tampa is off 2 solid home wins but is in a tough spot against a more talented team playing with their season virtually on the line. Even with backup QB Johnson Dallas is poised for their best effort to date. Both teams are in very competitive Divisions and this game could play a part in Playoff tiebreakers. The expectation is that Romo won't go and the line will be closer to a FG. Either way, look for Dallas' defense to come up big and be the key. Dallas wins 26-13.



JACKSONVILLE - 7 over Cleveland - Jacksonville had started to play well prior to last week's Bye after a sluggish 0-2 start. They''ve won 3 of 4 and appear poised to again contend for the Playoffs. Cleveland was competitive in losing at Washington after their Monday night upset of the Giants. The Browns' defense has actually put up better than expected stats, allowing under 20 points per game. Most of their defensive success has been against the pass (#7) but their run defense has been below average (146 ypg, # 26). Unfortunately their offense has dropped off considerably from last season (256 ypg, #30). Jacksonville is the better overall team and they have a significant edge in the running game which should be decisive here. The Jags have yet to have a breakout game as all 3 wins have been by a TD or less. The Bye allowed them to make adjustments to allow their running game strength to exploit Cleveland's weakness. Jacksonville wins 31-13.



Cincinnati + 10 over HOUSTON - Both teams were scheduled for Byes this week before Hurricane Ike necessitated a schedule adjustment. Cincinnati is winless (0-7) although they were competitive for most of last week''s game against Pittsburgh, trailing 17-10 after 3 quarters. Houston has won 2 straight after starting 0-4. But the Texans have a poor defense, one that creates few turnovers (just 0.8 per game, # 30). Cincy's struggled on offense with starting QB Palmer sidelined. They are gaining a league low 232 ypg but that should improve as backup QB Fitzpatrick gets more work as starter. Given the success of double digit dogs and the fact that Houston should not be laying such large numbers with their lowly rated defense, the Bengals are ripe to pull the upset, and certainly stay close. Houston is the weakest foe faced to date by the Bengals as they and Cleveland are the only teams Cincy has faced that currently have losing records. Cincinnati wins 23-20.




Best of the NFL Totals

Oakland/Baltimore UNDER 35 ½
Kansas City/N Y Jets UNDER 38
St Louis/New England OVER 43
Washington/Detroit UNDER 43 ½
N Y Giants/Pittsburgh UNDER 43
Indianapolis/Tennessee UNDER 42 ½




Money Line Recommendations

New Orleans
DALLAS
N Y Giants
Cincinnati


NFL Home Dogs - An Endangered Species? - Or Maybe Just a Myth?



The NFL regular season approaches the midway point with 102 of 256 games having been played. 2008 is unfolding as a season in which favorites and underdogs have performed almost equally, as they did last season but unlike the two seasons before. In 2005 Favorites were dominant, covering nearly 58% of the time (142-104-9). Withing that group, Road Favorites were an astounding 47-29-4 (61.8%) meaning Home Underdogs covered just 38% of the time! In 2006 Favorites were just 106-140-5, 43.1% ATS (Against the Spread). Home Underdogs were a solid 46-32-1 ATS (59.0%). These disparate results have called into question the long held "belief" that the best "value" comes playing Underdogs, especially home underdogs.



Witness how Home Underdogs have done over the years. Over the past 26 seasons Home Underdogs are 965-889-54 ATS, or 52.05%. That's below the 52.4% needed to break even laying 11 to 10! Since 1982 the best season for Home Underdogs was 1996 when they went 39-25-0 for 60.9%, a profit of 11.5 net units (2002 & 2006 were close behind). The worst was 2005 as Home Pups went 29-47-4 for just 38.2% (previously 1984 had produced the poorest results). Of the past 26 seasons there have been only 7 seasons in which Home Underdogs hit at less than 50% although there have also been 4 seasons in which Home Dogs hit above 50% but below the 'break even' point of 52.4%. There have been 15 seasons in which Home Underdogs turned a profit, but in 8 of them the profit was less than 2.0 net units for the entire season!

Blindly betting Home Underdogs between 1982 and 2004 would have produced a net profit of just 7.7 units but that entire profit was more than offset by the loss in 2005 of 22.7 net units for a net loss, on a flat bet basis, of 15.0 units over more than 1,700 plays -- hardly the definition of long term success -- or success at all for that matter. 10.8 units were "recovered" in 2006 but most of that was given back in 2007 when Home Underdogs produced a net loss of 8.6 units. Thus there has been an overall NET LOSS of 12.9 units by blindly having bet NFL Home Underdogs over the past 26 seasons! Quite a surprise to nearly everyone.



As to the "value" of Home Underdogs? It's a matter of semantics or, more accurately, a matter of relativity. Home Underdogs are the best of four "evils" in that relative to Home Favorites, Road Favorites and Road Underdogs betting on Home Underdogs has produced the lowest level of losses over a quarter century. So the next time you hear a handicapper or commentator extol the virtues of the Home Underdog you will be aware that the "bark" is much louder than the "bite" and that while looking for Home Underdogs is indeed a solid approach to handicapping it's not the be all and end all many have proclaimed it to be.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Chris Rizzo

BEST BET
INDIANAPOLIS 4


BALTIMORE -7
MIAMI 1
DALLAS -2.5
PHILADELPHIA -9
NEW ENGLAND -7
CAROLINA -4
JACKSONVILLE -6.5
NY GIANTS 3
CINCINNATI 9.5

[EagleFan]

Joyce Sterling
Sunday NFL 10/26

Pittsburgh -3 (8-3 run)10 STAR Game of the Week
Eli Manning vs Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh, first in the league in total defense (228.3 yards per game) and pass defense (158.7), is coming off a 38-10 wen vs Cincinnati last week. The Steelers held an opponent to less than 100 yards rushing for the fifth time this season, surrendered a season-low 128 passing yards and forced a turnover for the fifth time in six games. Steelers' 89 points allowed is the second-lowest total in the NFL. Their offense also appears to be coming around with a second consecutive game of at least 375 yards.

Washington -9
They already played poorly vs a previous winless team, St. Louis, 2 weeks ago so they should be more focused here. After overcoming a bad first half to survive another close call last week, they'll try to return to form by taking advantage of another of the NFL's worst teams. Jason Campbell is yet to be picked off this season. Detroit is in total disarray. They are 2-11 ATS their last 13 games.

Cleveland +7
Cleveland needs this game. They are 13-0 ATS playing a nondivision game off a nondivision game. The Cleveland defense is underrated, they have held 4 of 6 opponents to 14 points or less. They are on a 13-4 ATS run.<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1>

[Can'tPickaWinner]

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

5*BEST BET

Philadelphia over Atlanta by 20
For multiple reasons, the Eagles picked an opportune time to even
their record for the season. For openers, head coach Andy Reid
sparkles in games when playing with rest, going 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS,
including 5-0 ATS versus a .666 or greater opponent. Better yet, when
Donovan McNabb is his starting QB and his team is rested, the Eagles
are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS. In addition, Reid is 6-1 ATS in games when his
record is dead-even .500 and he’s taking on a foe off a SU and ATS win.
And speaking of dead-even .500 clubs, teams in Game Seven that are
playing at home off one-win exact are 12-4 ATS since 1980. While the
Falcons are an improved unit from last season they have allowed three
of their last four foes 2nd high season yards. The Eagles, on the other
hand, have held four foes to season-low yardage. Andy looks dandy
in this spot today.

4* BEST BET

NY Giants over Pittsburgh by 10
As we approach the halfway mark of the 2008 NFL season, it’s apparent
there is no clear-cut favorite in either conference. The Chargers, Colts
and Patriots have struggled, thus vaulting the Steelers and Titans into
prominence in the AFC. The Cowboys, Eagles and Bucs have all had
their woes, making the G-Men and Redskins the teams to beat in the
NFC. Thus, this could be a possible Super Bowl preview. We all know
the Giants’ affi nity for playing away from home (12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS
last 13 games). What you don’t know is that defending Super Bowl
champions shine on the road if not favored when taking on a .833 or
greater opponent. That’s because these ring-winners are 12-1 ATS in
this role since 1980! Considering Steeler boss Mike Tomlin is 0-4 ATS
in games off back-to-back wins if the last game was against a division
foe, we’ll stand tall with Big Blue.


3* BEST BET

Arizona over Carolina by 7

Both of these teams missed out on the playoffs last season and both
appear to be in post-season contention as we near the halfway mark
of this 2008 campaign. The Cardinals were denied a winning record
last year when the Panthers upended them, 25-10, as 6-point home
favorites.If that isn’t incentive enough then perhaps Ken Whisenhunt’s
10-1 ATS career mark in games against opponents off a win of 7 or
more points should be. On the other side of the ledger, Carolina head
coach John Fox trots off to the fi nance company as a home favorite
in games against .666 or greater opposition, going 3-6 SU and 1-7-1
ATS. That being said, we fully expect the Panthers to drop to 3-15 ATS
at home against .500 or greater opponents with revenge here today.
We’re raising Arizona.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

THE GOLDSHEET EXTRA


TECHNICAL PLAY OF THE WEEK

CAROLINA
Taking advantage of emerging team trends is a key component
of technical-oriented handicapping. And the Carolina Panthers
are developing a doozy of an advantage at home this season,
undefeated straight up (4-0) and vs. the line (3-0-1) at Charlotte.
That’s potential trouble for the visiting Arizona Cardinals, who
have also failed to cover the last 3 series meetings vs. the
Panthers




TECHNICIAN'S CORNER...

OAKLAND at BALTIMORE...Ravens 1-0 as chalk TY, but remember
1-8 mark previous 9 in role. Ravens also “under” 2-0-1 at home
TY. Tech edge-slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.


SAN DIEGO vs. NEW ORLEANS (at Wembley Stadium,
London)...Saints “over” 17-9 last 26 on board; Bolts “over” 15-5 last
20 away from Qualcomm. Tech edge-“Over” and Saints, based on
“totals” and team trends.


KANSAS CITY at NY JETS...Herm “under” 10-4 last 14 away from
home, and just 5-10 vs. line last 15 games on board. Tech edgeslight
to “under” and Jets, based on “totals” and team trends.


BUFFALO at MIAMI...Bills have won 7 of last 8 meetings, and
covered all 8 of those vs. Dolphins! Bills “over” 4-2 first 6 TY, Dolphins
“over” 8-3 last 11. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Bills, based on
“totals” and series trends.


TAMPA BAY at DALLAS...Dallas just 2-10 vs. spread last 12 on
board, including no covers last 5 at Texas Stadium. Dallas also “over”
first 3 at home TY. Tech edge-Bucs and “over,” based on recent
team and “totals” trends.


ATLANTA at PHILADELPHIA...Eagles “under” first 3 at home TY
(as opposed to “over” first 3 on road). Andy Reid only 4-9 against
spread last 13 as host. Falcs 9-5 vs. line last 14 away (all as dog).
Tech edge-Falcons and “under,” based on team and “totals”
trends.


ST. LOUIS at NEW ENGLAND...Note that Belichick just 3-11 vs.
line last 14 on board, and no covers last 7 at Foxboro. Rams “under’
10-4 last 14 away. Tech edge-slight to Rams and “under,” based
on team and “totals” trends.


ARIZONA at CAROLINA...Panthers have covered in last 3 meetings
(‘04-05-07). Cards “over” last 3 TY and “over” 11-4 last 15 as
visitor. Tech edge-Panthers and slight to “over,” based on series
and Cards’“totals” trends.


WASHINGTON at DETROIT...Lions just 1-5 vs. line last 6 at home
and only 2-11 against number last 13 on board since mid ‘07. Detroit
also “over” 9-3 last 12 at Ford Field. Tech edge-“Over” and
Redskins, based on “totals” and team trends.


CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE...Note that Romeo a surprising
16-6 vs. number since LY. Jags surprising 0-3 vs. line at home TY.
JV also “over” 9-4 last 13 at home. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to
Browns, based on “totals” and team trends.


NY GIANTS at PITTSBURGH...Steel “over” first 2 at Heinz Field
TY, now “over” 43-14-1 last 58 at home! Giants “over” first 2 as visitor
TY and “over” last 4 overall. Giants 9-1 vs. line last 10 away from
home even after last week’s loss at Cleveland. Tech edge-“Over”
and Giants, based on “totals” and team trends.


SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO...Seattle 7-16-1 against number
last 24 away from Qwest Field. Holmgren “over” 4 of last 5 as visitor.
Niners “over” last 2 at Candlestick after “under” 8 of previous 10 at
home. Tech edge-“Over” and 49ers, based on recent team
and “totals” trends.


CINCINNATI at HOUSTON...Texas “over” 6-0 in '08, “over” 19-7-
1 last 27 on board. Tech edge-“Over,” based on "totals"
trends.


INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (Monday, October 27)...Titans
have covered last 4 in series, and last 6 “under” in this AFC South
rivalry. Titans 6-0 SU and vs. line out of gate TY. Tech edge-slight
to Titans and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends




SYSTEMS SPOTLIGHT

NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-BUFFALO* over Miami@, NEW
ORLEANS over San Diego, NY GIANTS* over Pittsburgh, INDIANAPOLIS
over Tennessee (10/27).


FAMILIARITY-MIAMI over Buffalo#@, SAN FRANCISCO over
Seattle#.

NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-DALLAS over Tampa Bay.

NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-NEW ENGLAND over St. Louis

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Cajun Sports

Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL)
Oct 26, 2008 1:00 PM EDT

Play: Total: 45 Under

The City of Brotherly Love will be the site of Sunday’s match up between the host Eagles and the visiting Atlanta Falcons. Both Teams enter Sunday’s contest off of their bye week and having won their last game prior to the open date.
Philadelphia has been very strong coming off their bye posting a record of 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS but the key for us in this contest is they have only allowed 8.8 points per game off their bye.

Both teams have strong “Under” tendencies coming off their bye week as Atlanta is 8-0-2 Under during the last decade and Philly has gone “Under” in nine straight games off their bye.

Philadelphia’s defensive front presents a huge problem for rookie QB Matt Ryan of the Falcons as they rank number 2 in the NFL on our defensive index rating with a rating of 4.3. They are second only to Pittsburgh who has a 2.94 YPA while the Eagles check in with a 3.54 YPA.

The Eagles defense is tied for the NFC lead with 21 sacks this season and they love to blitz which may be too much for Ryan’s first trip to Philly. Eagles Safety Brian Dawkins is one of five Defensive Backs in NFL history with 20 or more sacks in their career. A tough place and a tough “D” for young Ryan to contend with on Sunday in Philadelphia.

The Falcons offense averages 291 yards per game and only 15.8 points per game on the road. The Eagles defense is only allowing 10.7 points per game at home this season. The Eagles offense averages 345 yards per game and 23.3 points per game at home this year. The Falcons defense is allowing 24 points per game on the highway this season.

ATLANTA is 14-5 Under in road games over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 Under in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 18-8 Under as a favorite over the last 3 seasons, 13-3 Under as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 Under as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons.

The Falcons are 12-31 Under on the road. The Falcons are 0-8 Under on the road when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date. The Falcons are 3-13 Under on the road when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. The Falcons are 4-14 Under as a road dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.

The Eagles are 0-13 Under as a favorite the week after their bye. The Eagles are 1-16-1 Under as a 7+ favorite. The Eagles are 0-8-1 Under as a home favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent. The Eagles are 0-7-1 Under as a home 7+ favorite versus a non-divisional opponent.

With strong fundamental support and overwhelming technical support we will make the Under in today’s contest our 2* NFL Total “Free” Selection of the Week.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Atlanta / Philadelphia Under 45

[lucid_dreamer]

Jim Feist

SEA Seahawks at SF 49ers
Take: SF 49ers

It's not a good time for the struggling and banged up Seahawks (1-5 SU/2-4 ATS). The only thing going right is the running game, which is 7th overall behind newcomer Julius Jones, averaging 131 yards per game. That's great if you're Navy, but won't cut it in the NFL. The offense is still 28th overall as QB Matt Hasselbeck (bruised knee) has sat out the last two games. The offense has scored 17 and 10 points the last two weeks. QB Seneca Wallace stepped in Sunday and threw for 73 yards and an interception in a 20-10 loss at Tampa Bay. Wallace was harried and hurried and forced to scramble, and made his share of errant throws. Their WRs have been depleted all season and Deion Branch missed another game Sunday (knee). That’s why Matt Hasselbeck (551 yds, 48%, 2 TDs, 4 INTs) is struggling even when he’s been playing. The knee injury is related to a bulging disk in Hasselbeck's back. The defense has been mauled, allowing 523 yards of total offense (254 yards on the ground) in a loss to the Giants, ranked 27th overall, plus allowing 28.5 ppg. Seattle 7-14 SU, 7-14 ATS its last 21 on the road and 1-5 ATS its last 6 on the road. They just had a road game at Tampa Bay (3,000 miles) and now have another road game. "Right now our confidence on offense isn't where it should be," Holmgren said, "and now we have to keep them going somehow, some way, and regain that confidence that we used to have." The 49ers have struggled too, ranked 23rd in defense and 23rd in offense, despite adding free wheeling OC Mike Martz. The 49ers figured that firing the head coach helped the Rams, so why not try it? San Fran fired head coach Mike Nolan this week. Assistant head coach Mike Singletary will take over as coach. Singletary has been coaching the 49ers linebackers since 2005. QB J.T. O’Sullivan (8 TDs, 10 INTs) has been mostly down, despite good targets in newcomer WR Isaac Bruce and power RB Frank Gore. There were hints that they might make a quarterback change this week. Shaun Hill has been the backup. Win one for the new coach? That could be just the ticket here on Sunday for the Niners!!

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Bob Akmens NFL

8 units New England Patriots -7.5

5 units Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5

5 units Cleveland Browns +7.0

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Cappers Access

Saints
Dolphins
49ers
C. Florida
<!-- / message -->

[brady1983]

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): OAKLAND RAIDERS vs BALTIMORE RAVENS


Play: BALTIMORE RAVENS -7

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): TAMPA BAY BUCS vs DALLAS COWBOYS


Play: TAMPA BAY BUCS +2

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): NEW YORK GIANTS vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS


Play: NEW YORK GIANTS +3

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Bob Balfe

Guys,
Horrible day yesterday. We were looking great at 3-0 coming into the weekend, but I dropped the ball. We will bounce back strong.


NFL Football
Raiders/Ravens Under 35.5
The Raiders held a great QB in check last week and will look to build on that momentum against a rookie in Joe Flacco. Oakland will have a tough time scoring on a solid as usual Ravens Defense. Russell looked OK last week, but I do not see Oakland generating much offense. Take the Under.

Buffalo/Miami Under 42
Both teams are having solid seasons, but Buffalo has exceeded everyone's expectations. I still think the Bills are overrated and will be going up against an experienced Dolphins Defense. Miami will also be going up against a more experienced defense and neither team has the type of offense to blow you away. We could see wind gust of 40mph. That is tough on the kickers and the QB's. Take the Under.

Giants +3 over Steelers
The Giants are on a roll and are lucky they wont be getting Pittsburgh's best punch on offense with so many injuries. New York has a huge offensive line and big receivers which should give the Steelers a lot of trouble. The Giants are last years Champs and are playing like them. Take the Gmen.

Cincinnati/Houston Over 45
Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the man for the rest of the season under center for the Bengals. Fitzpatrick is a smart QB that should do alright against a suspect Texans Defense. Both teams have huge size mismatches of offense and should move the ball well today. The Bengals are a team that has nothing to lose and are very capable of winning this game. Look for the Bengals offense to find a spark and for Houston to take advantage of a bad Cincinnati defense. Take the Over.

College Football
No plays today.

[ymmit2nd]

Pro Source

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baltimore - 7 AFC GOW
vs Oakland 1 pm ET
The Ravens have had an easy time with the Raiders, 4-1
SU/ATS S1992. We also rate Baltimore a dble digit fav in
this game. We're really looking at playing against Oakland.
They go on the road off a HUGE win at home for their new
Coach Cable. Oakland was dismantled in Cables lone road
try after their bye. Oakland has distractions with rumblings
from the remaining Raider Coaches & HC Kiffin fighting it
out thru the media, bad mouthing each other pretty much.
Oakland's defensive coordinator and the Ravens DC are twin
brothers. Oak's DC Ryan has been talking up his defense
in the media saying it's as good as his bro's.
The Ravens are # 2, Oakland is # 26. Baltimore is seventh
in the league with 134.3 rushing yds/gm, while the Raider
run defense has surrendered 136.2 rypg
Balt's rookie QB Joe Flacco went 17-for-23 for 232 yards
and a TD AT Miami, so is gaining confidence and should
play well at home. RB Willis McGahee ran 19 times for a
season-best 105 yards and a TD, so the Baltimore offense
is gaining momentum. The Ravens are proud of their defense,
& they were embarrassed last week at Miami. The defense
which had held opponents to a league-low 257 yds/gm got
pushed around, surrendering a season high 359 yds.
Oakland was badly out-gained last week and benefited from
turnovers and will have a hard time staying close here. Off
the emotional OT first home win of the season, and facing
long travel across the country vs a tough defensive home
team, this a rough spot for Oakland
system to:
Play Against road in this spread range off a SU home dog
win and rushed for 150 plus yds. .. ..64% for 8 yrs
Baltimore a solid 37-16-2 lst 10 yrs as a home fav, thats
our 70% stat thru 10 seasons, including 27-9, 75%, vs
losing teams & 18-2 when coming off a non-div gm. 90%
Oak 6-12 in ET gms, 7-18 vs NFC North, & played almost
a full extra qtr of FB last week.



New England - 7 Inter-Conference GOM
vs St Louis 1 pm et
The Pats are off the short week but stay at home. It's
the Rams in a the letdown spot.
Play Against any away underdog in this spread range who
won SU the previous week as an underdog of 7(+) pts and
they’re playing an opponent off a win.
.....27-8-2 77% thru 18 seasons.
Play Against road teams in this spread range off a SU home dog
win and rushed for 150 plus yds. .. ..67% for 8 yrs
This is a flat spot for NE who off BB primetime games vs
SD & Den with a road SNF game vs Ind on deck...BUT
The Rams are off 2 huge upsets of Washington & Dallas.
They also lost their best defensive player, DT Carriker &
will be without RB Jackson (had 160 yds, 3TD's last wk).
Tough break for STL as #2 RB Leonard landed on IR & #3
RB Pittman is coming off a broken leg. StL was literally
handed the win by the Skins at Washington 2 gms ago.
Sunday, it looked like Dallas didn't feel like playing any
defense. They allowed 21 pts to the Rams IN THE FIRST
QTR..cmon..the Bulger led Rams did that feat for the first
time since 2001 vs Dallas? The reeling Cowboys were in
their 2nd away in a row and rudderless with Romo going
down. StL has been outgained 432-202 on the road this
year. We're not sold that the Rams have righted the ship.
NE is 19-8-2 ATS vs the NFC, 11-1 lst 12 Oct gms
StL is 2-11 ATS away in the ET, 6-16 away S1992 as a
3.5 to 7 rd dog.



Philadelphia UNDER 46 Total of the Week
vs Atlanta 1 pm et
We expect a lot of running today. The Eagles had a great
ground game ignite vs SF before the bye, and we expect
them to run it today. Running is about all the Falcons can
do. With both teams off their bye week, the defenses will
be tough and rested.
The Eagles are an under team in October. They have gone
29- 45 UNDER, 61% for 18 seasons.
Phil UN 1-11 as 3.5 to 10 home favs, UN 0-9 off their BYE,
..here's the oddball rare stat..Phil 0-9 UNDER as favs of 7(+)
pts if they are coming off a SU road win their last game.
The Eagles have played UNDER THE TOTAL in 13 of 14
games with rest under head coach Andy Reid.
Atl is Under 2-16 their last 18 road games after a SU Win,
UN 1-10 off their BYE, UN 2-10 on grass
Simple angle that actually was an over system:
Play the UNDER when both teams scored 28+ last.
6 -20-2 Under since 2003 ...77 for a short 5 yrs

[ymmit2nd]

Action Sports Services

Best Bet Play 4-0 YTD

Detroit +7.5

[ymmit2nd]

Ethan law

5% dallas goy
1% arizona +4

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Sixth Sense

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Just 2-2 last week. The record on the year is now 25-11 +38.70%. All plays are delivered via email and will be sent by 10 p.m. central on Friday evenings. League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

Average Points Scored 22.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.1
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.0
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.2

Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.

BALTIMORE –7 BALTIMORE 23 OAKLAND 10

San Diego –3 SAN DIEGO 30 NEW ORLEANS 27

NY JETS –13.5 NY JETS 31 KANSAS CITY 17

Buffalo –1.5 MIAMI 23 BUFFALO 14

DALLAS –2 TAMPA BAY 23 DALLAS 20

PHILADELPHIA –9.5 PHILADELPHIA 27 ATLANTA 17

NEW ENGLAND –7.5 NEW ENGLAND 24 ST LOUIS 14

CAROLINA –4 CAROLINA 24 ARIZONA 15

Washington –7.5 WASHINGTON 21 DETROIT 14

JACKSONVILLE –7 JACKSONVILLE 17 CLEVELAND 14

PITTSBURGH –3 PITTSBURGH 26 NY GIANTS 17

SAN FRANCISCO –5.5 SAN FRANCISCO 27 SEATTLE 23

HOUSTON –9 HOUSTON 28 CINCINNATI 24

TENNESSEE –4 TENNESSEE 23 INDIANAPOLIS 13

BEST BETS YTD 25-11 +38.70% 3%

BALTIMORE –7 or less
3% MIAMI +1.5
3% CAROLINA –4
3% PITTSBURGH –3
3% TENNESSEE -4
3% SAN DIEGO/NEW ORLEANS OVER 45
<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

[ymmit2nd]

Brian Hansen's NFC GOY is on Arizona

[ymmit2nd]

big tom cavinder (from same group as gus marone)

underdog lock of the year detroit lions +7.5

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Ted Sevransky / TEDDY COVERS

6* Giants

Big Ticket: 6* Take the Giants.
<!-- / message -->

[jamarcus]

I have a dumb question, on his website it says NFC Game of the Year.
Dont the Jets and Chiefs play in the AFC???:nohead:

Come on.


Good point!

But I'm sure he's not giving away the NFC game of the year, the free picks often are labeled like this. Here is the text from his free pick page:

<o:p></o:p>

College Blowout Game<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<st1:city w:st="on">Troy</st1:city> (-23 ½) over <st1:place w:st="on">NORTH TEXAS</st1:place><o:p></o:p>
Prediction: <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Troy</st1:place></st1:city> by 35<o:p></o:p>
Starting Time: 7:00<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
NFL FOR SUNDAY<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
NFC Game of the Year<o:p></o:p>
<st1:city w:st="on">SAN FRANCISCO</st1:city> 49ERS (-5 ½) over <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Seattle</st1:place></st1:city> Seahawks<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Bonus Play<o:p></o:p>
MONDAY NIGHT<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:place></st1:city> Colts-TENNESSEE TITANS under 40 ½<o:p></o:p>
Prediction: 37 or less points

[ProPel]

John Fina

Football for October 26, 2008

NFL - 5 units on Miami Dolphins +3 (-110)

NFL - 2.5 units on Kansas City Chiefs +14.5 (-110)

NFL - 2.5 units on Philadelphia Eagles -9.5 (-110)

NFL - 2.5 units on Detroit Lions +8.5 (-110)

***

[brady1983]

They went 5-1 yesterday, my first day on board.

As of late:

GOING 13-4 THE LAST 6 DAYS

4-0 NCAAF YESTERDAY
5-1 LAST FOOTBALL WEEKEND
(3-0 NCAA, 2-1 NFL)

NOW 12-6 IN MLB

6-1 ON MONDAY NIGHT NFL
NFL: 20-11-1

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMKing Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet214 CAR / 213 ARI Over 42.0 Bodog
Analysis: 1:05pm ET / ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

1:05pm ET / WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DETROIT LIONS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

1:05pm ET / Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

1:05pm ET / Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

4:15pm ET / NEW YORK GIANTS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL


Game One:
The high-flying Cardinals travel east this week rested, relaxed, and confident (4-2 SU).Off 2 huge home wins against the Cowboys and Bills, Arizona now ?holds all the CARDS? in regards to the weak NFC West division. We already know that they qualify in high-scoring ?WEST to EAST? Over tendencies, which is a good start, But both they AND the Panthers are active in two great ?Pre and Post? REST situations:
6-1 O/U since 1999 for Game 7 teams with REST off a SUATS win (CARDS).... and 6-0 O/U for Game 8 FAVS of < 6 points BEFORE their Bye Week (PANTHERS).

Arizona?s offense is in high gear, scoring 30, 41, and 35 in their last 3 games.
Since 2002, NFL dogs of 2+ points are a PERFECT 5-0 O/U after scoring 30+ pts in their last 3 games.
And if you?re looking for a hot ultra-RECENT tendency: In the last 12 months, NFL underdogs playing off 3 straight ?OVERS? are 8-1 O/U.

The results of their last 2 games is a good sign for us, as revealed in a rare System: 3-0 O/U since 2002 for all NFL dogs of 6 < pts off a SU home win as a dog of +4 or more... and a SU home win before that. Meanwhile, the Panthers have reeled off 5 straight UNDERS in their last 5. This is the week we strike back: 10-2 O/U in the last 3 years for all NFL teams off 5 straight ?Unders? in a row... and 4-0 O/U if both tms are off a SU win. Carolina?s last 2 games have been a division roller coaster, as they creamed the Saints but lost big to the Bucs. 6-0 O/U since 1990: ALL home teams off a SU div win 17+ pts.. and a SU div loss of 17+ pts.


Game Two:
The winless Lions have allowed a whopping 31 PPG so far in the 2008 season, so this call is not much of a stretch. They?re the perfect opponent for the Redskins to get back in gear against. As we mention on page three of this week's TIPSHEET, Detroit is active in a pretty solid System as they seek their first win. 12-1 O/U since 1986 for Game 7 or greater non-division WINLESS teams against an opponent off a SU home win (like the Skins).
As a result of their early-season futility, the Lions are getting a ton of points at home this week. These ?long dogs? have been really hot so far this year for high-scoring potential.
ALL non-division home dogs of 7+ points are already a PERFECT 5-0 O/U this season... and 24-9 O/U in the last 3 years..

I also did some research in the set that I created in the database for the teams that play their home games indoors. The ?Dome Dog? aspect also reveals great OVER results for Detroit: 22-7 O/U for all DOME home dogs since 2001... 10-2 O/U as dogs of > 4 pts... and 7-0 O/U in the last 2 years.

On the Redskins side, we?ll be playing on another team that?s also on a UNDER streak (0-3 O/U last 3). This angle applies not just to the ?Skins, but to the Panthers (above) too: 8-1 O/U in the last 10 years for GAME 8 non-div FAVS playing off 3+ Straight ?Unders? in a row. Washington?s results in their last 2 homies (SU win ATS loss / SUATS loss) has them active in a nice one based on the site + spread. 5-0 O/U since 2002 ALL road favs of -4 > pts off a SU home win but ATS loss (vs Clev).. and a SUATS home loss before that. (vs Stl).


Game Three:
This NYJ / KC series is already 1-4-1 O/U in the last 5 meetings. There were four upsets last week in the NFL as the Dolphins, Cowboys, Jets, and Colts all lost as favorites (against the Ravens, Rams, Raiders, and Packers respectively). The Playbook database tells us to look for low-scoring results when these pissed-off losers return to the comforts of home in the month of October. 3-13 O/U in the last 3 years for ALL October home teams playing off a SU favorite loss. we note that NON-DIVISION teams (JETS and COWBOYS) are 2-10 O/U.... and have already gone 1-6 O/U so far in the 2008 season.

A review of this week's point spread and OU line also points us in the right direction: In the last 3 years, NFL teams are a PERFECT 0-4 O/U as non-div home favs of > 10 points with an OU line of 38 < points (Jets).

The Chiefs got bounced at home last week against the Titans 38-10. Another good sign for UNDER players:
1-6 o/U in the last 4 years for NFL road teams off a SU non-div home dog loss of 21 or more points (Chiefs).


Game Four:
Miami is another one of those teams that we just mentioned that lost at home last week as a FAVORITE. So they apply in the same OU System as the Jets: 3-13 O/U in the last 3 years for ALL October home teams playing off a SU favorite loss. As a team, this System fits right in as MIAMI is a PERFECT 0-7 O/U at home when playing off a SU favorite loss.

Buffalo comes in with tied with the 2nd best record in the NFL at 5-1 (tied with NY GIANTS and PITT STEELERS). In some cases, we will indeed play OVER for these 5-1 teams (see below). But in some situations, the database tells us to go the other way (UNDER).
3-13 O/U for all GAME SEVEN road favorites of 9 < points when their current W/L record is 5-1 on the year (Bills). When these 5-1 teams are laying points in the road against fellow DIVISION opponents (like the Bills), the results are 1-10 O/U.

The Bills looked very good last week against the Chargers in their first game after their Bye week.
3-13 o/U in the last 4 years for ALL NFL teams who won SU and ATS in the week AFTER Their Bye... and lost SU and ATS in the week before their Bye (Bills). ROAD teams in this situation are 1-8 O/U.


Game Five:
If we're talking about a HOME game in the 'STEEL CITY', we always look to the Over FIRST... instead of the Under. Steeler home ?OVERS? have been the way to go lately (23-5-1 O/U last 29 home games / 12-1 O/U as home favs < 7 pts). There?s no other way to go!

Our previous write-up mentioned Buffalo's 5-1 record entering their game against the Dolphins. Well, this game features not one but TWO teams who come in with a 5-1 SU record so far in the 2008 season.
This situation is rare, but the database tells us that When a 5-1 team takes on another 5-1 team, the results are a PERFECT 3-0 O/U since 1993.

Both teams come in off B-I-G wins:
6-1 O/U since 1995 for all teams off a road win of 28 > pts (PITT) vs an opp off a home win of 10 > pts (NYG).

Here?s an Inter-conference query that also fits the bill:
17-4 O/U since 2004 for AFC home favs vs an NFC opp when both are off a SU win.

The Giants rebounded nicely off their Monday loss 2 weeks ago.
6-0 O/U since 2000 for all teams off a SU DD home fav win... and a SU road loss as favs of -7 > pts.

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMBob Majors | NFL Side
double-dime bet200 BAL -7.5 (-110) BetUS vs 199 OAK
Analysis:
Both Oakland Raiders (2-4) and Baltimore Ravens (3-3) ended their three game losing streak last weekend.

The Raiders will challenge the Raven defense this weekend as they amassed 344 total yards against the Jets in a 16-13 victory. QB JaMarcus Russell went 17-30 for 203 yards a 1 touchdown. The defense allowed the Jets 418 yards which was the 3rd time this season this has occurred.

The Ravens offense averages 17.5 ppg and 313.7 ypg which ranks 26th in the league. QB Joe Flacco went 17-23 for 232 yards and 1 touchdown against Miami and RB Willie McGahee ran 19 times for 105 yards and 1 touchdown. The defense surrendered a season high 359 yards last week against Miami, but still manage a 27-13 victory.

The Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more that 350 total yards in their previous game. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

The defense is solid at home with the Ravens and we are going with giving the small number as the Ravens will shut down the Raiders.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

10/26

PSYCHIC

2 units Arizona +3.5
2 units Oakland +9
3 units Detroit +9
3 units Buffalo -1
5 units San Diego -3
WISEGUY

DA STICK

5 units San Diego -3
10 units Jacksonville -7
10 units Pittsburgh -3
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[Can'tPickaWinner]

Inside Sports Report-Jeff Matthews Went 3-2 Unit 7 Units Yesterday

Premier Picks® For 10/26/08

4* Washington -7.5 over Detroit (NFL)
Range: -5.5 to -9

3* Carolina -4 over Arizona (NFL)
Range: -2.5 to -6

3* Philadelphia -9 over Atlanta (NFL)
Range: -7 to -10.5

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Ethan Law

5% KANSAS CITY +$14
2% JACKSONVILLE -7
2% SEATTLE +5.5
2% KANSAS CITY +$600

[GrumpyBear]

Vegas Sports Experts

VSE NFL Plays for Sunday are:

10* Take Philadelphia (-9) over Atlanta (Power Play)
1:00 PM EST

Atlanta
• 1-4 SU & ATS vs. NFC East Division Opponents
• 2-18 SU as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points
• 3-11 ATS coming off an upset win as a home underdog

[GrumpyBear]

BeatYourBookie.com

Daily Premium Football Winners for Sunday

Sunday NFL Football

100* Play New England (-7.5) over St. Louis
(1:00 P.M. EST Kick-Off) (Top NO LIMIT Guaranteed Winner)

New England is 11-1 ATS when playing in the month of October
New England is 20-1 SU coming off a win by 10 points or more
St. Louis is 6-20 SU as an underdog over the last 3 season

[ymmit2nd]

Beat your Bookie

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

100-tulsa

NFL-100-new england

50-houston and phil

[philaztx]

I just saw from another site Kelso's 50 unit play is on the Jets and it is confirmed. Not sure how that is possible if hsi play is on an NFC game

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Kelso

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->The posts are correct. 50 units on San Fran and 50 units on Jets.

5 units Oak/Balt UNDER 35.5
4 units Tampa Bay +2
3 units Giants +3
<!-- / message -->

[Can'tPickaWinner]

ATS Lock Club

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->6 units Bills (pk)
5 units Eagles -9
4 units Ariz +4
4 units Wash -7.5
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[mj23]

Frank Patron

30,000 Units

Carolina -4

[ymmit2nd]

Myedge 6-0 L 2 Weeks

3* Kansas City at NY Jets - Sunday, October 26
3* Carolina vs Arizona - Sunday, October 26
3* Jacksonville vs Cleveland - Sunday, October 26

[Can'tPickaWinner]

BRASS BALLS PICKS

Today's $15 early play is Seattle + 5 1/2

Free pick daily
9-0-1 RUN ON FREE PICKS

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Doc's Sports

4 Unit Play. #112 Take Over 43 in St. Louis Rams @ New England Patriots (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) New England 31, St. Louis 24.


3 Unit Play. #118 Take Philadelphia Eagles -8 ½ over Atlanta Flacons (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) Philadelphia 31, Atlanta 17.


3 Unit Play. #126 Take Tennessee Titans -4 over Indianapolis Colts (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Titans take control of the AFC and we collect big the process as well.

[ymmit2nd]

ErockMoney's picks for Sunday:

Carolina (-4.5)
Buffalo (-1.5)
Dallas (PK)
Buffalo/Miami (OVER 42)
Seattle/San Francisco (UNDER 42.5)
Indianapolis (+4.5)

Erock is now 22-19 for the NFL season.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

ATSLOCKSCOM

17-5 ATS THE LAST 6 DAYS

Falcons @ Eagles Under 45 (15 Units)

Steelers -3 (10 Units)

49ers -5.5 (10 Units)

Eagles -9 (5 Units)
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