[SOUTHPHILLYBUDDA6]

fezzik loves the
colts........

[Mosi]

SPORTS NETWORK OVERALL ANALYSIS

Apart from the two quarterbacks, much of what the Colts and Saints are about defies a simple evaluation of personnel. Are these the two most talented teams in the league? Probably not. But strong systems, good coaching, and a winning culture have equaled a combined record of 31-5 this season - these teams know how to win. But knowing that, this game will be won based on the subtlety of a few matchup advantages. The New Orleans defense has had success this season by forcing turnovers, and Manning is as careful a quarterback as you'll find in the NFL. The Colts are going to score some points here, and will show an ability to keep the ball out of Brees' hands, thus reducing his margin for error dramatically. When the Saints do control it, don't count on them matching the Colts score-for-score, or from staying mistake-free when it matters.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Colts 31, Saints 17

[Anthonyd4]

Dwayne Bryant


Under Colts/Saints

[jblonghorn]

Nevermind about Dr Bob; I bought it for us. Enjoy.

2 Star Selection
New Orleans (+5) 28 INDIANAPOLIS 27
Miami
07-Feb-10 03:25 PM Pacific Time
New Orleans Offense versus Indianapolis Defense
The Saints have the most complete offense in the NFL, as they are able to run the ball effectively with both Pierre Thomas (5.4 ypr) and Reggie Bush (5.6 ypr) while also being able to throw the ball short (Bush and Thomas combined for 86 catches) and long with wide receivers Colston, Henderson, and Meachem all averaging at least 15.3 yards per reception. At the controls is Drew Brees, who should have been the NFL's MVP over Peyton Manning this season. Brees completed 71% of his passes in the regular season and has thrown 40 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions in 17 games, including 6 TDs and 0 picks in the post season. The Saints have averaged 4.8 yards per rushing play (excluding quarterback kneel downs and also excluding their week 17 game when they used a lot of reserves) and Brees has averaged an impressive 7.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB). Overall the Saints' attack has averaged a very impressive 6.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team.

The Colts' defense was mostly very good this season and allowed just 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. However, Indy rates a bit better defensively if you exclude the games in the middle of the season when top cornerback Kelvin Hayden missed some time. Hayden actually missed 7 of 9 games from week 3 through week 12, and the Colts' pass defense was 0.7 yards per pass play better than average in the 11 games in which Hayden played (compared to 0.5 yppp better than average in all games excluding week 17 when the subs played a lot). Indy also has a solid run defense that allowed 4.2 ypr to teams that would combine to average 4.5 ypr against an average team. Overall the Colts are 0.4 yards per play better than average defensively, but that's assuming that top pass rusher DE Dwight Freeney is going to play at his normal level - which is highly unlikely. Freeney has a torn ligament in his right ankle that makes it tough for him to even stand up and it would be incredible if he plays anywhere close to his normal level.

With Freeney far less than 100% the Colts go from having a better than average pass rush to a worse than average pass rush, as Freeney's 13.5 sacks in 16 games is impossible to replace. With Freeney not likely to play much, or not able to play effectively the Saints can use more double-teams on Robert Mathis, who has 9.5 sacks in 16 games, and Drew Brees should have plenty of time to throw the ball, which will make it tough on a Colts' secondary that could be thinned by the absence of CB Jerraud Powers, who has started all 13 games that he has played this season but missed the AFC Championship game against the Jets. Powers is listed as questionable this week and the Colts' pass defense has been 0.4 yards per pass play worse than average in the 4 games that he has missed (excluding week 17). I suspect that Powers will try to play, but probably won't start, but the Saints have so many good receivers that Powers will be exposed if he's not 100%.

The Saints are coming off their worst offensive game of the season in the NFC Championship Game win over the Vikings with just 4.7 yppl, but the Colts' defense is also coming off a bad game in allowing the Jets to average 10.1 yards per pass play and 6.7 yppl. I have to assume both teams will play at their normal level and my math model projects 393 total yards for the Saints at 5.9 yards per play - and that assumes Freeney and Powers will both play at their normal level of play, which is highly unlikely (especially for Freeney).

Indianapolis Offense versus New Orleans Defense
The Colts' offense has been pretty one-dimensional this season, as the rushing attack has generated 100 yards or more just 4 times all season while averaging just 84 yards at 3.7 yards per rushing play (excluding week 17). Having a good rushing attack isn't extremely important when Peyton Manning is your quarterback, as Manning has led his team to 28 points per game (excluding week 16 and 17 when he played only a part of each game) without the benefit of a good rushing attack. Manning averaged 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback), but he's also thrown 17 interceptions and that could be a problem against a ball-hawking Saints' secondary that has picked off 1.7 passes per game (excluding a meaningless week 17 game). The Colts' offense rates at 0.9 yards per play better than average with Peyton Manning on the field, which isn't as good as the Saints' +1.1 yppl offensive rating.

I've heard a lot of so called "experts" question the Saints' defense after a second half of the season in which they didn't do a good job defending the pass, but few of them have pointed out the reason for that poor defensive performance over the second half of the season. New Orleans was a better than average defensive team through the first 9 weeks of the season, but top cornerback Jabari Greer was injured and missed the next 7 games while the other starting corner Tracy Porter was injured a week later and missed 4 games while also being limited for a few games late in the season after his return to active duty. New Orleans had pretty good depth at the cornerback position, but their #3 and #4 cornerbacks had to start a lot of games in the second half of the season and that really hurt them, especially against multiple receiver sets. The Saints got their reputation of being a sub-par defense because their depleted secondary allowed 7.0 yards per pass play from week 10 on (regular season) to quarterbacks that would average just 6.0 yppp against an average defensive team. However, Greer returned to play some in a meaningless week 17 game and was ready to start along with Tracy Porter in the playoffs two weeks later - the first time since week 8 that the Saints' starting cornerbacks were both playing. Arizona threw the ball at a decent level (mostly after the game was decided) and holding Brett Favre to 6.7 yppp in the NFC Championship game is a better than average effort (Favre would average 7.2 yppp on the road against an average team). In 10 games with Greer and Porter starting the Saints' pass defense rates at 0.3 yppp better than average, so the reputation of being easy to throw against is undeserved. The Saints are pretty easy to run against (4.6 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average team), but the Colts are not going to win this game by running the ball and a healthy Saints' secondary that picks off a lot of passes could be a challenge for Peyton Manning. Manning and the Colts still have a solid advantage over a healthy Saints' defense and my math model projects 393 yards at 6.1 yppl for Indianapolis in this game.

Math Model Projection
Overall my math model projects the Colts with just a 1 yard edge in total yards and a narrow 6.1 yppl to 5.9 yppl advantage. That projection assumes that the Colts are at full strength defensively, which they clearly are not, so the Saints may actually have an advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game with Freeney and Powers not at 100% if they are able to play. The math model projects a 0.4 edge in turnovers in favor of the Saints, with special teams even and penalties favoring the Colts a bit. Overall, the math model favors New Orleans by 0.5 points in this game with a total of 53.7 points. That shouldn't be that surprising given that the Saints do have a better offense and the defenses are much closer after adjusting for New Orleans' pass defense with Greer and Porter manning the cornerback positions.

Side Summary
Going by last week's games, in which the Colts beat a good Jets team by 13 points and the Saints were lucky to beat a Vikings team that beat themselves with 5 turnovers, it appears as if the Colts are clearly the better team. However, that is simply not the case, as New Orleans has actually been a better team over the course of the season, especially when their starting defensive secondary was intact as it is now. While the Colts are 16-0 straight up in games that they've played to win (they rested starters in losses in week 16 and 17), 7 of those 16 victories were by 4 points or fewer and none of the teams that they beat by more than 4 points are as good as the Saints. New Orleans is 15-2 straight up in the 17 games in which Drew Brees played, losing by 7 points to the Cowboys and by 3 points at Carolina, but teams tend to play at a higher level in the Super Bowl and the Saints' higher level of play is better than the Colts' higher level of play. I give a game rating for each game based on the score, strength of opponent and site of the game and the Saints' top game rating is 10 points higher than the Colts' top game rating. The Saints' 2nd highest game rating is higher than the Colts 2nd highest game rating, their 3rd is higher than the Colts' 3rd. In fact, the Saints' game ratings are higher than the corresponding Colts' game ratings from best to worst until you get down to each team's 13th best game. The Saints worst games were certainly worse than the Colts' worst games, but it's hard to imagine teams playing at their worst in the Super Bowl and if each team is expected to play at their average level or higher, then the Saints are likely to win this game.

New Orleans also has an edge in compensated points differential, as the Saints' average score in their 17 games with Drew Brees playing was 33.9 to 21.2 and their schedule in those games was 0.1 points easier than average, which would make the Saints' compensated point differential +12.6 points. The Colts' average score in their 16 wins was 27.8 to 16.8 and their schedule in those 16 games was 0.1 point tougher than average, which gives the Colts a +11.1 compensated point differential. Part of New Orleans' 1.5 points advantage in compensated point differential is due to their +1.18 average turnover margin in those games, which a big portion of is random positive variance (i.e. luck). The Colts had a +0.56 average turnover margin in their 16 games in which they tried to win (and did win) and the projected turnover differential in this game is 0.44 in favor of the Saints (rather than the 0.62 actual difference between the two teams' turnover differential). The difference between the actual and projected turnover difference of the teams is worth 0.7 points in favor of the Colts, so adjusting the compensated point differentials for turnover variance would now predict the Saints by 0.8 points based purely on compensated and adjusted point differentials. That number would be Colts by just 0.8 points if the turnovers in this game are even. With my math model also slightly favoring the Saints (by 0.5 points) it appears as if the line on this game has been overly influenced by the Saints' late season failures and last week's unimpressive win. However, a lot of New Orleans' late season problems have been rectified with the return of cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter and last week's bad performance is most likely just a fluke. I know it's tough going against Peyton Manning, but Brees not only averaged a higher yards per pass play this season than Manning but he also threw fewer interceptions and has a better rushing attack to compliment his passing. The Colts also have their second best player, DE Dwight Freeney (and his 13.5 sacks), at far short of 100% with a torn ligament in his ankle and that could prove to be too much to overcome, as giving Brees time to throw the ball will likely be a problem for the Colts.

Many argue that the Saints' lack of Super Bowl experience will cause them to succumb to the pressure of the big game while Peyton Manning and the Colts, having won the Super Bowl a few years ago, will be more poised. That theory doesn't really hold water, as the last 5 teams without recent Super Bowl experience have covered the spread against a team that had recently been in (and won) the Super Bowl. New England started that trend with their upset over St. Louis (who had won the SB two years earlier) as a 14 point dog in SB 36. In Super Bowl's 38 and 39 the Super Bowl experienced Patriots failed to cover in 3 point wins over Carolina and Philadelphia. In Super Bowl 42 the New York Giants, who hadn't been to the big game in 7 years (and only a couple Giants had SB experience) upset the unbeaten Patriots as a 12 point dog. Last season the Arizona Cardinals, playing in their first Super Bowl, covered against a Pittsburgh team that has won the Championship just 3 years earlier with the same core of players. Teams that hadn't been to a Super Bowl in the previous 6 seasons are on a 9-2 ATS run against teams that had been to a Super Bowl within the last 5 years, so recent Super Bowl experience is not a plus for the Colts. There is just no way to justify the Colts being favored by 3 points or more in this game unless you're only going by last week's performances. While it's certainly possible that the Saints will play poorly again (and not be so lucky) it is likely that they'll play much closer to their normal high standards, and that will make it tough for the Colts to run away with this game. I'll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7.

Over/Under
My math model, using projected statistics, projects 53.7 total points in this game and my compensated points model predicts 56.7 points. The line is 56.5 points and my projections do not account for the strong possibility that the Colts' Dwight Freeney will be less than 100% if he plays, or for the questionable status of Colts' CB Powers. If Freeney doesn't play, or isn't effective, then those math projections would go up about a point or so, so I don't feel comfortable giving an opinion on the total in this game, although Super Bowls with totals of 50 points or higher have gone 5-2 Under, including 4 consecutive Unders with a total that high.

Propositions
I didn't see any propositions worth playing, although I lean with Drew Brees not throwing an interception, which is +135 to +145 odds.

[moneyroll]

Root

mill- saints

[Can'tPickaWinner]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Saints
Over

[Can'tPickaWinner]

ASA

3* under

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Dave Blezow
6-4 sides in playoffs
6-4 totals in playoffs

Saints winoutright & The Over
Saints 30-27

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Sportsmemo’s NEWSLETTER Super Bowl Picks



Tim Trushel..... New Orleans +6 ....Under 56.5

Teddy Covers...Indianapolis -5.5 ...Under 56.5

Fairway Jay .....New Orleans +6.... Over 56.5

Erin Rynning.....New Orleans +6..... Under 56.5

Brent Crow..... New Orleans +6 ......Over 56.5

Rob Veno....... New Orleans +6....... Over 56.5

Marty Otto...... Indianapolis -5.5..... Under 56.5

Andrew Lange ...Indianapolis -5.5..... Under 56.5

Donnie Black..... New Orleans +6 ......Under 56.5

Helmut Sports.... Indianapolis -5.5 .....Under 56.5

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Root

mill- saints

Saints (4.5 or +5) over Colts
Prediction: Wayne Root`s Super Bowl Pick: New Orleans Saints +4½ or 5 over Indianapolis Colts It is a strong MILLIONAIRES CLUB play.
My reasoning: It would be even higher rated...but Peyton Manning is just too good...he worries me...he might be the greatest QB and field general EVER...so that`s the only thing standing in the way of a Saints upset. But I will say that Indy is the worst "PERFECT" team I`ve ever seen. They ended last season 9-0...and started this season 14-0. That`s 23-0 in games they cared about winning! But they did it with smoke, mirrors and one amazing future Hall of Famer. They are built around one strength- Manning- which masks a very average team... with a inferior running game...and a pedestrian defense. They are also led by an inferior rookie coach Jim Caldwell who before this season...had a record of 26-63 as a Head Coach (of Wake Forest). But with Manning calling the plays...who needs a Head Coach? Give credit for 14-0 under Caldwell...as well as 9-0 to end 2008 under Tony Dungy...to Manning. Now don`t get me wrong- the Saints "D" is even worse (in every category) than the Colts, but that doesn`t matter. Against Manning, no "D" is safe. So the fact that the Saints` "D" is bad is actually not a factor in my pick. Manning will score 4 to 5 (or more) touchdowns against ANY "D"...good or bad. No one can stop him. The fact that our Saints` "D" is bad got us an extra 4 1/2 points. I`ll take it!!! But the Saints statistically inferior "D" does 2 things well - cause turnovers and pressure the QB. So I give the Saints as my upset pick because I think that Drew Brees can match Peyton TD for TD. And if our Saints get even 1 turnover...we win the game. Stop Manning ONCE and go the other way... plus 4½ or 5 points...the odds are greatly in our favor of beating the spread. Whoever has the ball last probably wins this game. So bet with some caution. Because it could be tied with 2 minutes to go...and Manning could throw a 7 as the clock runs out...beating the spread. That`s our worry. We might have the correct side and still lose the game to the greatest QB ever. But our ace in the hole is that +4½ point spread. Manning might score a field goal on that last drive...cementing his place in history...but clinching the "W" for us! One other factor I`ve found...the team that has more come-from-behind wins during the season has won 8 of the last 9 Super Bowl OUTRIGHT since `2000...and even the one exception...covered the spread as a dog (Carolina vs. New England). New Orleans has 7 come from behind wins this season...vs. only 4 for Indy. That`s a big difference. The prior teams with that big a difference in this trend all won the Super Bowl. All this trend really means is that with Brees` firepower, we are never out of the game. Take the 4½ as a gift. Let`s hope it goes up to +5. Best Wishes, Wayne Wayne Allyn Root, Founder & CEO

[Can'tPickaWinner]

NORTHCOAST PROPS

single play -saints and colts will have under 2- combined sacks-take the under

double play -the saints will score a 1st quarter touchdown-yes

single play - the 4th quarter will be the highest scoring quarter-yes +210

single play -both teams will kick field goals longer than 33 yards-yes they will +180

[Can'tPickaWinner]

BANG THE BOOK

Super Bowl Sunday is finally here and the world is anticipating an exciting show featuring two of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL. The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints will partake in the fight for the Lombardi Trophy. The New Orleans Saints are making their first appearance in the Super Bowl while Peyton Manning and the Colts will be trying to win their 2nd Championship in 4 years. The Saints offense led the NFL in scoring this season averaging nearly 32 points per game and the Colts were not far behind averaging 26 points per game leading viewers to expect fireworks this Sunday night.

Last year’s Super Bowl broke the all-time viewing record at nearly 98.7 million viewers and this year nearly 10 billion dollars is expected to be wagered on the big game worldwide. Therefore, it is easy to understand why the Super Bowl is easily the single biggest sporting event on the planet. Under those circumstances, both teams will be under a huge amount of pressure. A lot of people think the Saints have momentum on their side, but Colts QB Peyton Manning is perhaps the best in the business and has been in this situation before. So who will win the biggest game in sports?

It is no secret that the Colts heavily favor the pass just like the Saints and have tons of success doing so, but their defense may not be getting the credit they deserve. The Colts defense has surrendered just 10 points on average in their two playoff wins. However, the secondary has been very questionable this season and that is the main concern when facing the Saints offense. Still, if the Colts defensive front can get pressure on QB Drew Brees they could really frustrate the Saints offense. Last week the Vikings held Brees to just a 55% completion percentage due to their relentless pass rush and that has to be the main focus for the Colts defensive front this Sunday.

On offense, the Colts fast paced and methodical approach is difficult to defend. Manning reads defenses better than any quarterback in the NFL and is averaging over 300 yards passing per game in the two postseason victories. The Saints have really struggled against the pass this season, but they have also forced a ton of interceptions, 26 during the regular season. Therefore, Manning can not afford to give the Saints secondary chances to bring down any interceptions. WR Reggie Wayne is the big play threat and TE Dallas Clark is perhaps the go to guy in key situations. However, young wide outs Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have inflicted most of the damage during the postseason as defenses have keyed in on Wayne and Clark. Collie and Garcon have combined for 360 yards and 3 touchdowns during the playoffs. The question is who will step up on the biggest stage? Still, if the Colts can just prevent turning the ball over and giving the Saints any additional opportunities with the football they will be hard to beat.

The Saints offense has done a tremendous job at spreading the ball around this year and they have a ton of guys that the Colts must keep an eye on in the passing game. Wide receivers Devery Henderson and Marques Colston are extremely dangerous targets combining for nearly 2,000 yards and 11 touchdowns during the regular season. Of course additions targets like Robert Meachem and Jeremy Shockey will also be in the mix of things as well. QB Drew Brees is having a sensational season throwing for 4,388 yards with 34 touchdowns while completing 70% of his passes. Those are very stellar numbers and Brees has performed well during the postseason as well. The key for the Saints offense will be “space.” They have to keep the Colts defense spread out giving their playmakers some 1 on 1 opportunities. When the Saints get space they can get some big plays and also work tailback Reggie Bush into the passing game. If that happens, the Colts secondary will have their hands full.

For the Saints defense, they have to use the electricity from the big game and turn that into a positive. Often times in big games, you will see defenses step up and that has to be the Saints defense on Sunday. Safety Darren Sharper led the NFL with 9 interceptions during the regular season and a few of those big plays would be extremely critical in helping their chances in scoring the win. Nobody expects the Saints to flat out stop the Colts offense considering that is highly unlikely. However, if they can prevent the 7 point scores and force a few turnovers they will have a great opportunity to score their first ever Lombardi Trophy.

Pick – I just do not see Manning losing this game and believe a late touchdown seals the deal for the Colts. Colts -4 ½

[Can'tPickaWinner]

SPORTS INSIGHTS

Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints

The Super Bowl is upon us -- and what do the sports marketplace indicators have to say? Early betting leaned towards the Colts, with about 65% of the bets taking Peyton Manning and his Colts. This pushed the line from the Colts -3.5 opener all the way to -5.5 at many sports books. Some books even hit -6. Recent betting has been more "even" -- and brought the overall betting percentage down to 57% on the Colts, and the line back down to -4.5. If you shop around, you can still grab the Saints +5 at Bodog, WSEX, and SIA.

In addition to contrarian value and associated line value on New Orleans, SportsInsights' proprietary analysis tool triggered two Smart Money Plays on New Orleans. Our readers know that we like contrarian value as well as Smart Money indicators. Over the years, this philosophy has proven to give our Members an edge in "sports investing."

Indianapolis Colt Dwight Freeney is listed as questionable. He will not practice all week due to a sprained ankle with possibly torn cartilage. Even if he does play on Sunday, he should be less than 100%. Freeney leads the Colts with 13.5 sacks. This will give Drew Brees the extra time necessary to pick apart the Colts' secondary.

The public often focuses on recent performance, and in this case, performance in the AFC and NFC Championship Games. In particular, the public remembers the Colts comeback and thrashing of the Jets, starting near the end of the first half. They also remember how the Saints nearly lost, even with the Vikings committing a crazy amount of turnovers. Data shows that performance in the Championship game is relatively uncorrelated to Super Bowl performance. This is a good opportunity to buy the Saints at a low and sell the Colts at a relative high -- with data to back things up.

New Orleans Saints +5 (Bet at Bodog +5 -110)

So, heres a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this weeks Games to Watch - Playoff Edition for the NFL.

Games to Watch - Super Bowl Edition (2-1 66.7%)
New Orleans Saints +5 (Bet at Bodog +5 -110)

[Can'tPickaWinner]

DOUBLE DRAGON NFL

SAINTS +7 (-150)

5-1 the last two rounds of playoffs
16-7 the last 6 weeks

The line at Caribsports is currently Saints +5.5 (-120).
They recommend buying 1.5 points to +7 (-150).

[Can'tPickaWinner]

NORTHCOAST

PROP ONE AND TWO

single play #20144 take the largest lead of the game will be under 16- points for even money

double play # 109 take new orleans plus a half point -130 for the 4th quarter ....

[Can'tPickaWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET


SUPER BOWL XLIV
It’s not often that what seems like an inevitable Super Bowl matchup actually
materializes. Indeed, this is the first time since the 1993 season that the
respective top seeds have emerged unscathed from their conference playoff
gauntlets to meet in the final showdown. Although it’s not the unprecedented
battle for the ages between unbeatens that this matchup teased at becoming as
late as mid-December, it is nonetheless one of the more compelling
championship collisions in recent memory, enhanced in part simply because
each avoided the sort of playoff banana peels that have caused numerous top
seeds to slip (including both the Titans and Giants a year ago at their first
postseason hurdles).
Though we are not convinced of greatness in either side, the oddsmakers
and wagering public seem to believe the billing more closely fits the Colts. We
also suspect that perceptions from the respective conference championship
games have something to do with the not-so-insignificant impost that saddles
Indy in the finale. That the Saints found some rather unconventional ways to
subdue the Vikings in the NFC title clash is probably why their chances appear
to have been slightly discounted in Miami.
Forgive us, however, for not being ready to bestow the “great” tag on this
particular Indy team...at least not yet. That’s not to say that we don’t consider
Peyton Manning as such, as his credentials for Canton are clearly set. But there
are enough things that this Colts team doesn’t do particularly well that make us
wonder about their ultimate championship credentials. Indy does not run the
football particularly well, or well at all, really, ranking 32nd and last in the league
during the regular season. Of course, a team with Manning at the controls
doesn’t necessarily need a chop-busting infantry to survive (as the Colts proved
in their title run three years ago), and Indy did generate a serviceable overland
component (101 YR) vs. the Jets in the AFC title game. But at a puny 3.5 ypc,
it’s not a diversion Manning can normally rely upon. Meanwhile, although the
rush defense somewhat contained the one-dimensional Jets two weeks ago, it
couldn’t consistently stop the run (ranking 24th while allowing 4.3 ypc) this
season. That same shortcoming didn’t stop the ‘06 Colts (who ranked last in
rush “D”) from winning it all, but it should be noted that particular Indy stop unit
got healthier toward the end of that campaign and had stemmed some of those
rush “D” leaks by playoff time. And it hasn’t prevented this Indy edition from
advancing to another Super Bowl, although we would suggest that after facing
the somewhat flawed offenses of the Ravens and Jets (and their very young
QBs) in the first two playoff rounds, the Colt “D” has yet to take on a truly
balanced and potent offensive force this postseason.
And the Saints appear capable of doing some things against this Indy
defense. Drew Brees has been at his best when complemented by his ground
game, something New Orleans should have confidence in establishing for the
finale. The Saints’ stout OL features All-Pros on the right side (G Jahri Evans
& T Jon Stinchcomb), and RBs Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, and Mike Bell
should all be relatively healthy after a week off. Although Jim Caldwell can
deploy lots of cornerbacks (including a previous Super Bowl hero, Kelvin
Hayden) to match up against New Orleans’ squadron of dangerous wideouts,
it’s Bush, in particular, who is often a make-or-break proposition for the Saints’
offense, especially in the passing game, and the Colts are going to be gambling
that one of their safeties (Antoine Bethea or Melvin Bullitt) can handle Reggie
in one-on-one situations. Indeed, Bush’s homerun capabilities (also as a
returner) are a dimension unique to this matchup. And despite the presence of
the menacing Dwight Freeney at DE, the Saints’ pass protection wasn’t a
problem this season when ranking a solid 4th best in sacks allowed, with Brees’
mobility (especially his uncanniness while throwing on the run) a dimension that
could further confound Caldwell’s defense.
Of course, dealing with Manning, who has been hot (623 YP & 5 TDP) in the
playoffs, is another matter for the Saints, although many respected sources
believe Gregg Williams’ stop unit is constructed as well as any to slow down the
Colts attack. With his quick release and sterling protection (Indy allowed the
league’s fewest sacks), Manning is not easy to disrupt. But Manning is human
and is still relying on some relatively-green, albeit impressive, receiving targets
in rookie Austin Collie and 2nd-year Pierre Garcon, and is likely to get hit by New
Orleans’ aggressive pass rushers, who eventually made Brett Favre pay in the
NFC title game. And the Saints have plenty of difference-makers in their ballhawking
secondary, including big-play FS Darren Sharper, with 3 interception
TDs TY and a potential elixir for one of Manning’s favorite targets, TE Dallas
Clark. Those seven forced TOs (against seasoned vets like Kurt Warner and
Favre) in the playoffs also suggest that Williams’ now-healthy D” has
rediscovered the mojo that made it so effective the first half of the season.
Although New Orleans was considered fortunate by many to escape the
Viking threat in the NFC title game, we thought the resourcefulness the Saints
exhibited in overcoming such a stout opponent spoke volumes about their
chemistry and fortitude, something Indy hasn’t had to similarly demonstrate in
the postseason. We suspect that New Orleans might have already beaten a
better team (Minnesota) than the Colts to reach the finale. Getting a bonus from
the oddsmakers is nice, but we don’t think it will be necessary for Saints
backers to cash their tickets.


TGS SCORE FORECAST:

NEW ORLEANS 34 - Indianapolis 27

“TOTALS” note...Although the posted “total” is sitting rather high at 56½ at
our press time, we foresee a likelihood of the defenses and special teams
getting involved in the scoring act, which can serve to inflate the ultimate
scoreline. And given the potent offenses involved, there seem to be more ways
this game can go “over” than “under.”

[Can'tPickaWinner]

POINTWISE


SUPER BOWL PROPHECY

INDIANAPOLIS 34 - New Orleans 24 RATING: 3

[Can'tPickaWinner]

FRIENDS OF MIKE LEE


The 2010 Super Bowl sets up as a championship fight between the two highest ranked contenders, a
rather rare occurrence. In keeping with the prizefighting analogy I thought long and hard to come up
with the appropriate comparison and have settled on the classic and now almost mythical
confrontation between George Foreman and Muhammad Ali in Zaire, Africa. Lest there be any
confusion concerning my point of view, I feel that New Orleans will play the Foreman role, the Colts
Ali.
Like many Colt games I start out thinking that the other side represents tremendous value here. The
Saints offense appears unstoppable with Drew Brees throwing to a deep, big and talented group of
receivers, all of whom are capable of making big plays and a running game that complements things
perfectly with a bruising inside runner like Pierre Thomas and the game breaking speed of Reggie
Bush who can score every time he touches the football. New Orleans, in addition, rates a huge edge
in the kicking game with Bush returning kicks and a field goal kicker who probably has 7-10 yards
greater range than the Colts’ ancient Matt Stover. On defense, the Who Dats are healthier than
they’ve been in a long while and will do everything possible to put pressure on Peyton Manning while
relying on Darren Sharper and Co. to rein in (somewhat) the Colt receivers and force turnovers as is
their customary style. They aren’t above taking a cheap shot or two either and I expect The Colt QB to
take a couple of nasty hits during the game. It’s simply too tough to defend this offensive juggernaut
and with Dwight Freeny out or significantly impaired it is hard to understand why the Saints are taking
5-5 ½ here when the likely should be favored. Easy choice, right?
While the Saints were tearing things up the Colts seemed to be life and death most weeks to pull out
victories. Funny thing, whenever they cared, they won. Peyton Manning seemed more like Houdini at
times pulling one escape after another until Indy, at 14-0, decided to shut things down and prepare for
the playoffs. They left most with the impression that they are still a (fine-tuned) finesse team that
needs everything to go right to win games, a team built for regular season glory but not tough enough
to go all the way. Aside from Freeny (and the absent Bob Sanders) the defense is anonymous (or
“average” as someone from CBS Sportline wrote in a very negative piece the other day), they have no
running game, can’t return a kick and have a social security recipient kicking field goals. How can this
team be favored?
Well, let’s look a little bit deeper. The Saints started their offensive circus against Detroit and their
rookie QB, then crushed Philly (McNabb got hurt). The defense put in their best efforts at Buffalo and
then at home against the Jets (rookie QB with the training wheels still on). They hung beatings on the
Giants (no defense), Miami and Atlanta (no defense). After that things slowed a bit (or more) with the
takedown of New England representing the high point and a 17-24 loss to the Cowboys the low (They
WERE trying in that one, just got beat). Looking back on the body of work they played quite a few
stiffs (especially in retrospect) with the New England win standing out and the Dallas loss leaving a
question mark. Aside from Dallas they played two playoff teams (Jets, Philly)……in short, the going was
pretty easy. They faced an Arizona team that was completely out on its’ feet in round two of the
playoffs and beat the Viks in a game better described as the Viks beating themselves. The Colts only
faced two playoff teams “in earnest” (Arizona and Baltimore), beating one soundly and squeaking past
the other. They did, however, face the prolific Texans (a LOT like the Saints) twice, the Jags twice
and the Titans twice, along with Denver (when they were good) and New England, winning them all.
They played a (surprisingly) dominant DEFENSIVE game against the powerful Raven rushing attack
in playoff round two and then hung 30 on the Jets top rated defense. In both playoff games taking the
points seemed like the obvious way to go and in both cases it was the wrong way to go.

Make no mistake: while New Orleans’ defense is far from perfect the Saints sport an extremely
impressive offense and a superior return game. Drew Brees is both a fiery leader and a great
quarterback... I DO have some concern about his arm strength however as a number of his throws
were not particularly sharp in the Minnesota game (I am certain he relished and needed the two weeks
off). I can not see this team being “stopped” when they have the ball. Very well coached team, should
be well-prepared here. Very tough to beat. And yet…
As we have written countless times Peyton Manning is the supreme hustler. He dares you to fade
him, he beats you and you come back for more. I have to laugh about some of my “analysis” when it
comes to handicapping his games but I’ve made a lot of money going with this guy whenever I feel the
deck is stacked against him. Indy’s defense is better than rated (faster and somewhat more physical)
AND better coached than recent additions (less predictable) The O-line is solid, the receivers
disciplined and sure-handed. In short, the Colts have enough of a supporting cast to help Manning
grab his second Super Bowl and, in so doing, add to the evidence that he is the best to ever play his
position.
Foreman/Ali. The Saints will pound, they will throw bombs, they will score with heavy blows. The
Colts will duck; they will stick and move, they might even get pinned on the ropes. Peyton will jab, jab,
jab, scoring here, scoring there. In the end the Saints defense will wilt while Indy absorbs the early
beating and eventually perseveres. Should be a great game.

COLTS 38 SAINTS 31






Although playing over in the Super Bowl is generally considered the “dummy’s way” (and the number
is juiced up) it is hard to fathom either team scoring less than 24 here. Since one team has to win I’d
say the “minimum” final score would be in the area of 27-24, several points south of the number. In
my local “box pool” I actually took 73 and 74 (41-33, something like that) which I have tempered just a
bit here. I actually think a couple of the kickoff props are pretty good if you like the over, especially the
OVER NINE TOTAL KICKOFFS which seems quite appealing. Since you’ve got two in the bag to
start (if I have to explain you don’t watch football!) you need only a combined eight scores (TD’s or
field goals) to get the money. You could reach that mark with 24 total points (8 field goals)!! A 27-24
game would have ELEVEN kickoffs which seems highly probable to me.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Scott Delaney

80 Dime New Orleans

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Sixth Sense
NFL SUPERBOWL XLIV

3% NEW ORLEANS +5

Escaped with the over in the Saints-Vikings game two weeks ago. That brings the playoff record to 2-2 -0.6%.

BEST BETS
REG SEASON YTD 48-41 +8.40%
PLAYOFFS YTD 2-2 0.60%

3% NEW ORLEANS +5

INDIANAPOLIS -5 NEW ORLEANS 56.5

NEW ORLEANS 33 INDIANAPOLIS 30

[Can'tPickaWinner]

NC Executive Club SB Props

These are all the props we are releasing:
game #20144 Marquee SINGLE play: Largest lead of the game UNDER 16.5 (even)
game #109 Marquee DOUBLE play: New Orleans + .5 pt in the 4Q (-130)
game #15018 Marquee SINGLE play: Saints/Colts UNDER 2.5 sacks (+120)
game #20163 Marquee DOUBLE play: The Saints WILL score a 1Q TD (+110)
game #169 Marquee DOUBLE play: Marques Colston OVER 4.5 receptions (-140)
game #197 Marquee TRIPLE play: Reggie Bush OVER 53.5 combined rush/rec yds (-130)
game #20121 Marquee SINGLE play: Will 4Q be highest scoring Q - YES (+210)
game #20129 Marquee SINGLE play: Will both teams make FG’s of 33 yds or longer - YES (+200)
game #20193 Marquee Double play: Drew Brees longest completion OVER 38.5 yds (-125)
game #20211 Marquee DOUBLE play: Pierre Thomas WILL score a TD (+140)
game #20310 Marquee Triple play: Manning more gross passing yds in 2H (even)
game #131 Marquee Double play: YES there will be a DEF / ST TD (+145)
game #181 Marquee TRIPLE play: Reggie Wayne OVER 5.5 receptions (-115)
game #20257 Marquee SINGLE play: Jeremy Shockey WILL score a TD (+330)
game #20361 Marquee DOUBLE play: Reggie Wayne WILL score a TD (even)
game #20293 Marquee DOUBLE play: Jonathan Vilma OVER 6.5 total tackles (+105)
SUPER BOWL RELEASE ON SUNDAY 2/7/10 AFTER 11:00 AM ET

[Can'tPickaWinner]

ESPN "EXPERTS"


ACCU SCORE COMPUTER: 28-27 INDY


Chris Berman: Colts,31-21
Both quarterbacks will have big games. I don't think it's quite the pinball-wizard,
high-scoring affair we think it's going to be, but there will still be plenty of points.
Peyton Manning may be playing the best football of his career, which is saying a
mouthful.



John Clayton: Colts, 27-24
In what should be the close game, Peyton Manning's experience playing in a Super Bowl should be the
difference. With seven fourth-quarter comebacks this season and two weeks to prepare for the Saints'
defense, Manning will slip past Drew Brees and New Orleans with one or two crucial fourth-quarter scoring
drives.




Sal Paolantonio:Colts,28-17
Indianapolis won't turn it over five times, and Peyton Manning kills the blitz.



Gene Wojciechowski: Colts, 28-21
The Colts can stick it to all the people who thought they shouldn't have sat their
starters against the Jets in Week 16.


DITKA : NEW ORLEANS

KESHAWN JOHNSON : NEW ORLEANS

CHRIS CARTER: INDY

TOM JACKSON: INDY



Rick Reilly: Saints,27-24
Because I am sick to death of being happy for the Mannings. rofl


Len Pasquarelli: Colts, 27-17
Too much Peyton for Payton.


Herm Edwards: Colts,31-27
The winningest play-caller of the decade, Peyton Manning, will have the biggest
impact in this game. Manning's ability to keep his poise under pressure will allow him
to focus on the job at hand.


Scott Van Pelt: Saints,28-24
Not one human thinks this can happen, so I will take the Saints (and I'm not happy about it).


Jon Gruden:Saints,30-27
It's the Saints' year. Who Dat!


Matt Millen:Colts,35-31
The Saints' defense is similar to the Jets' in what they try to do and how they give you
different looks. They play great as a unit, but it will take Peyton about a half to figure
it out



Trent Dilfer: Saints,35-31
The Saints' offense dominates the game, not only finishes drives with touchdowns but
gives Peyton limited opportunities.


Marcellus Wiley:Colts,38-23
The NFL's Most Valuable Player will prove his worth once again. Too much Peyton-- Colts win.



Trey Wingo:Colts,37-24
Peyton at the peak of his powers.


Mike Tirico:Colts, 34-26
A day for the offenses and the masters of the quarterback craft. I feel a strong
emotional pull toward the Saints but can't go against the best on the biggest stage.
Peyton is the gold standard.





TedyBruschi:Colts,35-31
No team has beaten the Colts all year



Jeffri Chadiha: Colts, 31-21
Indianapolis has the edge in offense, defense and Super Bowl experience. In other words, this could get ugly.


Tim Graham: Colts, 38-31
Two quarterbacks who know how to exploit a defense's weakness will make Super Bowl XLIV a humdinger.
The difference will be the greatest quarterback of this generation shredding the NFL's 25th-ranked defense.



Paul Kuharsky: Colts, 33-20
In the end, Peyton Manning's precision is more than the Saints' defense can handle over 60 minutes. He lifts
the Lombardi Trophy again, and his critics have to get more creative. The Colts' D gets some notice too.



Mike Sando: Colts, 34-27
Peyton Manning was much more impressive dismantling the Jets than Drew Brees was attacking the Vikings.
The Saints have shown plenty capable, but I'm more inclined to trust Manning over the course of four
quarters. He can make every possession count.


Kevin Seifert: Colts, 31-21
The Saints' defense is smart and quick. Peyton Manning is smarter and quicker.


Pat Yasinskas: Saints, 31-24
The only difference between Peyton Manning and Drew Brees is that Manning has a Super Bowl ring and
Brees doesn't. That's about to change.


Matt Mosley:Saints,28-24
New Orleans had no business beating the Vikings in the NFC title game, and
that's why this feels like one of those destiny situations to me. The Colts have the
edge at QB, but I think Sean Payton will put together a masterful game plan.


James Walker:Colts,30-20
In a game filled with offense, I'm going with the better defense. I'm shocked the
Colts are not getting credit for posting second-half shutouts in back-to-back
playoff games.


Bill Williamson: Saints,37-34
Be prepared for a game you'll remember forever: Mix two great quarterbacks
who always answer the bell with two defenses that can be vulnerable to the big
play and you have the makings of a festival of points. Drew Brees will deliver the
final dagger and send Bourbon Street into instant Mardi Gras mode.



Greg Garber: Colts,27-21
Indy has been here -- literally, in Miami -- and done that. Experience takes down first-time Saints.


Elizabeth Merrill: Colts,31-21
You got the sense, right after that wild November comeback win over the
Patriots, that nothing fazes these Colts. And they're so comfortable in Miami.
Some of them are sleeping in the same hotel rooms they did three years ago,
when they won Super Bowl XLI


Gregg Easterbrook: Colts,20-17
I pick 20-17 not because I have any reason to think that score will happen; 20-17
is simply the most common NFL outcome, happened 11 times this season.


David Fleming: Saints,37-34
The bigger the game the more likely finesse yields to physical.


DJ Gallo:Saints,30-24
New Orleans and Indianapolis have similar defenses. But the Saints' offense is
more explosive. That's why I am picking them. Of course, if the Colts win, I was
just joking with my pick.


Seth Wickersham: Saints,34-28
The NFC is simply stronger than the AFC this year. The Saints' road to the Super
Bowl was tougher than the Colts', whose defense won't look as good against
Drew Brees as it did against Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez.



Scouts Inc.

Jeremy Green: Saints,34-31
With so much hype surrounding the prolific passing offenses in this game the run
games have been overlooked. The Saints will run the ball and stop the run, and that
will be the difference.


Gary Horton: Colts,31-21
Peyton Manning can carve up even elite defenses. The Saints do not fit in that
category, but at least they are opportunistic. Manning will make the necessary
adjustments, and the Saints will be shocked at the speed of the Colts' defense.


Doug Kretz :Colts,31-26
Even if Dwight Freeney is unable to play, the Colts will put too much pressure on
Drew Brees as well as on the back end with their cover corners. Both teams will
score plenty, but Peyton Manning will end up with the ball at the end and punch it in.
Ken Moll Colts,30-20
Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have been held at bay (zero sacks) in the
postseason, but will get to Drew Brees in this game coming off the edge. If Peyton
Manning had had this year's Colts' defense in previous seasons, he would have won
at least one more Super Bowl.



Matt Williamson: Colts,30-21
This is the score I picked when I wrote my scouting report and I will stick with it,
although the more I dig into it, the more I feel like the Colts will win by double digits.
Because of nerves and being on such a huge stage, expect the Saints to start slowly.
That won't happen to Peyton Manning.



ESPN.com NFL editors



John Banks:Colts,35-24
The only question will be where this Indianapolis team will rank in NFL history. Better
than three-time winner New England? Better than the Steelers of the 2000s? Anybody
think anyone else but Peyton Manning will be this game's MVP?


Jamar Hudson :Colts,31-27
In what will go down as one of the best Super Bowls ever, Peyton Manning will
engineer a late fourth-quarter drive to give the Colts the win and solidify his spot among
the all-time greats.


Alex Kimball :Colts,31-27
The Saints have a shot after scoring a late touchdown, but they fall short of the end zone
in the final seconds.


Sheldon Spencer:Saints,38-24
Beano Cook says this is going to happen. Who are we to argue?



Patrick Stiegman: Colts,35-24
Three reasons the winningest franchise of the decade will add another Super Bowl title:
(1) The Colts will boast eight of the top 10 players on the field, and they are all at
explosive, play-making positions -- QB, WR, TE and DE; (2) The Colts converted
nearly 50 percent of their third-down opportunities in 2009; (3) Toss out the two
meaningless games after clinching home field, and the Colts were plus-6 in turnover
margin. The Saints will score, but the Colts will soar.



Scott Symmes :Colts,32-24
In 2009 (and 2010), we haven't seen the Colts fall short when their sole focus was
winning. We won't see it on Sunday, either. Peyton Manning will be a step ahead of the
Saints' defense and will guide Indy to a semi-comfortable victory.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Gamblers Data (Fletcher)

Colts-3 1st half 5*

saints/colts un 28.5 1st half 4*

colts-3 1st half 4*

longest run from bush ov 9 yards -140

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Billy Walters 2 Million On Colts


MATT YOUMANS: Sharp money avoids Saints

As far as coach-quarterback combinations go, only a couple in the NFL inspire belief in bettors more than Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Who imagined the New Orleans Saints would be considered cutting edge and hip?
Payton recruited Brees as a free agent in 2006, and they created a high-powered offense the Saints are riding to the Super Bowl. Along the way, they embarrassed New England's Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.


But next up is Peyton Manning, the league's best quarterback. If the Indianapolis Colts were coached by a beer vendor, they would have a great coach-quarterback combination. Manning alone is that good.
So if you've been watching ESPN, reading the newspaper, listening to talk radio and soaking in the overkill of Super Bowl analysis, you're aware that most experts prefer the Colts as 5-point favorites and Sunday's game should be Manning's showcase.
Manning is making many bettors cynical about the Saints.
Even the sharpest professionals, including Las Vegas' Billy Walters and Steve Fezzik, are lining up on Indianapolis. Fezzik said he plans to bet the Colts straight up on the money line, at a price of about minus-200, and sources say Walters has done the same in a big way.
One story circulating among gambling insiders is that Walters collaborated in some way with poker pro Phil Ivey to place a $2 million money-line bet on Indianapolis at a Strip sports book.
MGM Mirage sports book director Jay Rood did not get into specifics but said, "We took a seven-figure bet on the Colts money line."
Sources also report Adam Meyer, a sports gambler from South Florida, has been approved for a $1 million bet at M Resort. Meyer did not confirm the amount.
"I'm going to be making a substantial wager," Meyer said. "I've only done one-third of the amount so far on the Colts on the money line."
Be aware that many of the Colts money-line bettors are playing it both ways by maneuvering to also take the Saints and the points.
Ken White, a veteran oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, said he made the line minus-61/2 and the total 61, so he sees small edges to Indianapolis and over the total, which is now about 57.
White just spent a week in Miami, and he said league insiders talked about how the Saints were a bundle of nerves in their 31-28 overtime victory over the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. Brees appeared overly cautious with some throws, and his offense went three-and-out seven times.
"If the Saints were nervous in that spotlight," White said, "what's going to happen to them this Sunday?"
White said he leans to the Colts because of "experience." But he's also concerned about the right ankle injury to defensive end Dwight Freeney, a bulldozer as a pass rusher.
"Freeney is an important part of that team," White said. "If he comes back and they say he's going to play 85 percent of the plays, I feel the line will go back up to 6. But without Freeney, I'm making it 41/2."
The 6-foot Brees can stand toe to toe with the 6-foot-5-inch Manning in a passing numbers game.
Brees posted an NFL-high rating of 109.6 in the regular season, compared with Manning's 99.9 rating. Brees had 34 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions, compared with Manning's 33 and 16. Since the 2006 season, Brees and Manning each have 122 touchdown passes. In his past eight games, including the playoffs, Brees has passed for 21 touchdowns with two interceptions.
The critics are picking on the weaknesses of the New Orleans defense, and Manning surely will, too. But it's not a no-win situation for the Saints. A no-win dilemma is a height contest between Tom Cruise, Al Pacino and Ryan Seacrest.
Knocking off Manning is a tall order -- and I have the Colts winning, too -- but Brees and Payton give the Saints a shot.
Despite the crush of Colts bettors swarming Las Vegas books, White said, "There's going to be a lot of Saints money, as well."
There are hundreds of ways to bet the Super Bowl, including propositions. Two weeks ago, "in-progress" wagering was a hit at books such as the Las Vegas Hilton, M Resort and Lucky's. At each commercial break, the point spread for the game is adjusted and posted for continual wagering.
"It's the wave of the future," said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky's books, based at the Plaza downtown. "People just like to keep betting."
And many of them will be betting big on Manning.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

HANDICAPPER'S CORNER
JUST WIN BABY

New Orleans Saints +5
OVER 55