[h=1]Best NFL underdog value in Week 5[/h][h=3]Why there is significant betting value on big underdogs in divisional matchups[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]PJ Walsh[/FONT] | Sports Insights
Our contrarian betting strategy had a slow Week 4, finishing 1-2 against the spread (ATS), dropping our overall season record to 9-7 ATS. However, including the bad week, we still sit at a profitable 56.3 percent ATS through four weeks, keeping us ahead of the 52.4 percent break-even point for spread betting.
As a whole, contrarian betting is off to a very solid start this season, with underdogs covering at a rate of 54.2 percent. Furthermore, NFL teams receiving 40 percent less of spread bets are 24-16 (60 percent) ATS, for a profit of more than six units.
Looking ahead to Week 5's slate of games, not much jumped out at me in terms of classic contrarian betting strategies. Existing systems already created inside Bet Labs are showing only a handful of matches for this week, while testing new theories and systems hasn't pointed to new angles, either. In these scenarios, it's important to not force plays just for "action."
Remember, our goal is to employ contrarian betting strategies in order to identify teams or plays offering value. If value doesn't appear to be available, we'll simply take what we can get and move on to the next week. With this in mind, I turned to a system that focuses on games between divisional opponents that has produced a 57.5 percent ATS win rate since 2003 and is offering two bets for NFL Week 5.
To get started, I used our Bet Labs software to isolate the ATS performance of underdogs playing opponents from the same division. While underdogs in division games alone don't offer much value, our ATS win rate steadily improves as we look at larger underdogs.
The table below summarizes these results:<offer></offer>
[h=4]ATS records between divisional opponents, since 2003[/h]
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Additionally, we can improve results even further by looking at teams that are currently underdogs for the second straight game. This final filter improves our ATS winning percentage to 57.5 percent and increases our ROI to 10.9 percent.
The general theory behind our system is that there is familiarity between teams within the same division because they face off twice each season. Knowing an opponent's trends and tendencies allows less talented teams to overperform and keep games more competitive.
As illustrated in our analysis above, the larger the underdog, the better they historically perform against the spread. Interestingly, the sweet spot of this system is playing underdogs of greater than 7 points. This not only backs our theory that familiarity between teams helps make up for a difference in the level of talent, but also makes sense because this point-spread range gets bettors off the key number of 7.
The final wrinkle of this system was separating teams that were underdogs in their previous game from those that were favored. At the very least, we can assume that the betting market has a negative perception of teams if they're underdogs in consecutive games. Whenever the market as a whole views a team or teams as "bad," oddmakers shade lines to account for these perceptions, adding even more value to our system matches.
Thursday: Minnesota Vikings (plus-9) at Green Bay Packers
After losing veteran starting quarterback Matt Cassel to a broken foot, rookie Teddy Bridgewater stepped in admirably, leading the Vikings to an impressive 41-28 victory over the Falcons in Week 4. Bridgewater was forced to leave the game after suffering a sprained ankle, but early reports indicate he is on track to play Thursday night.
At the time of publication, 62 percent of spread bets have taken Green Bay, yet we've seen the line drop from an opener of 10 to the current number of 9, a sign that early money has already come down on Minnesota. We think the Vikings can keep this game within single digits and will go ahead and take Minnesota and the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (plus-10.5) at New Orleans Saints
Behind backup quarterback Mike Glennon, the Buccaneers scored a touchdown with seven seconds remaining to not only cover the 7.5-point spread, but win their Week 4 game against Pittsburgh outright. On the other hand, New Orleans, a 3-point road favorite, got pounded by the Cowboys on "Sunday Night Football." Despite the ugly loss in front of a national audience, 52 percent of spread bettors have been willing to lay double-digit points with the Saints so far this week.
Based on this week's system results, we're confident that Glennon can score enough points against a leaky New Orleans defense to cover the spread, and we'll grab Tampa Bay as a double-digit underdog.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]PJ Walsh[/FONT] | Sports Insights
Our contrarian betting strategy had a slow Week 4, finishing 1-2 against the spread (ATS), dropping our overall season record to 9-7 ATS. However, including the bad week, we still sit at a profitable 56.3 percent ATS through four weeks, keeping us ahead of the 52.4 percent break-even point for spread betting.
As a whole, contrarian betting is off to a very solid start this season, with underdogs covering at a rate of 54.2 percent. Furthermore, NFL teams receiving 40 percent less of spread bets are 24-16 (60 percent) ATS, for a profit of more than six units.
Looking ahead to Week 5's slate of games, not much jumped out at me in terms of classic contrarian betting strategies. Existing systems already created inside Bet Labs are showing only a handful of matches for this week, while testing new theories and systems hasn't pointed to new angles, either. In these scenarios, it's important to not force plays just for "action."
Remember, our goal is to employ contrarian betting strategies in order to identify teams or plays offering value. If value doesn't appear to be available, we'll simply take what we can get and move on to the next week. With this in mind, I turned to a system that focuses on games between divisional opponents that has produced a 57.5 percent ATS win rate since 2003 and is offering two bets for NFL Week 5.
To get started, I used our Bet Labs software to isolate the ATS performance of underdogs playing opponents from the same division. While underdogs in division games alone don't offer much value, our ATS win rate steadily improves as we look at larger underdogs.
The table below summarizes these results:<offer></offer>
[h=4]ATS records between divisional opponents, since 2003[/h]
| Underdogs | ATS Record | Units Won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 527-509 (50.9%) | -6.94 units | -0.7% |
| 6+ points | 238-214 (52.7%) | +7.64 units | +1.7% |
| 7.5+ points | 152-117 (56.5%) | +23.97 units | +8.9% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine ATS records ** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $2,397 ($100 x 23.97 units) following the system. *** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from the sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment. |
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Additionally, we can improve results even further by looking at teams that are currently underdogs for the second straight game. This final filter improves our ATS winning percentage to 57.5 percent and increases our ROI to 10.9 percent.
[h=3]Why does this work?[/h]The general theory behind our system is that there is familiarity between teams within the same division because they face off twice each season. Knowing an opponent's trends and tendencies allows less talented teams to overperform and keep games more competitive.
As illustrated in our analysis above, the larger the underdog, the better they historically perform against the spread. Interestingly, the sweet spot of this system is playing underdogs of greater than 7 points. This not only backs our theory that familiarity between teams helps make up for a difference in the level of talent, but also makes sense because this point-spread range gets bettors off the key number of 7.
The final wrinkle of this system was separating teams that were underdogs in their previous game from those that were favored. At the very least, we can assume that the betting market has a negative perception of teams if they're underdogs in consecutive games. Whenever the market as a whole views a team or teams as "bad," oddmakers shade lines to account for these perceptions, adding even more value to our system matches.
[h=3]Week 5 system matches[/h]Thursday: Minnesota Vikings (plus-9) at Green Bay Packers
After losing veteran starting quarterback Matt Cassel to a broken foot, rookie Teddy Bridgewater stepped in admirably, leading the Vikings to an impressive 41-28 victory over the Falcons in Week 4. Bridgewater was forced to leave the game after suffering a sprained ankle, but early reports indicate he is on track to play Thursday night.
At the time of publication, 62 percent of spread bets have taken Green Bay, yet we've seen the line drop from an opener of 10 to the current number of 9, a sign that early money has already come down on Minnesota. We think the Vikings can keep this game within single digits and will go ahead and take Minnesota and the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (plus-10.5) at New Orleans Saints
Behind backup quarterback Mike Glennon, the Buccaneers scored a touchdown with seven seconds remaining to not only cover the 7.5-point spread, but win their Week 4 game against Pittsburgh outright. On the other hand, New Orleans, a 3-point road favorite, got pounded by the Cowboys on "Sunday Night Football." Despite the ugly loss in front of a national audience, 52 percent of spread bettors have been willing to lay double-digit points with the Saints so far this week.
Based on this week's system results, we're confident that Glennon can score enough points against a leaky New Orleans defense to cover the spread, and we'll grab Tampa Bay as a double-digit underdog.
