CFB Week 6

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10* 19-15 +34.5 units
1* ML 8-11 +13.05 units


Saturday

10* Stanford -2 This game comes down to defense and the competition these teams have faced thus far.........Stanford defense gives up 3.1 yds per rush and 3.7 yds per pass while ND's defense gives up 3.3 yds per rush and 6.9 yds per pass......both teams have a good defense but I believe ND's numbers are skewed because of their terrible schedule so far this year.......They have played Rice, Michigan, Purdue and Syracuse.......Looking at those teams you would think that Michigan was their toughest opponent but we all know they are not a good team right now and they have some internal problems as well.......Stanford has played USC and Washington and I don't think either of these teams are great they are better than anyone ND has faced so far this year and they went 1-1 in these games.......losing to USC 13-10 and beating Washington 20-13......I was on the Huskies last weekend vs Stanford because I was thinking they might be looking ahead to this matchup with the #8 Irish.......anyway, I think Stanford will control this game with their running game and hit some big plays off of play action.......plus I think they will get at least two turnovers from the Irish which will set them up for some easy scores.......Lastly, we have the angle of the lowered ranked team being favored over the higher ranked team on THE ROAD......very important because I could see Stanford at home being favored but on the road I think the bookmakers are trying to get some heavy action on the Irish and as I post the public is favoring the ND side at 60%.....I do believe the line is going to go to 3 before game time and that is why I am already playing this one....Stanford wins 27-13!!!!!!


back with more on Thursday

GL

lewis
 
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Saturday

10* Stanford -2 This game comes down to defense and the competition these teams have faced thus far.........Stanford defense gives up 3.1 yds per rush and 3.7 yds per pass while ND's defense gives up 3.3 yds per rush and 6.9 yds per pass......both teams have a good defense but I believe ND's numbers are skewed because of their terrible schedule so far this year.......They have played Rice, Michigan, Purdue and Syracuse.......Looking at those teams you would think that Michigan was their toughest opponent but we all know they are not a good team right now and they have some internal problems as well.......Stanford has played USC and Washington and I don't think either of these teams are great they are better than anyone ND has faced so far this year and they went 1-1 in these games.......losing to USC 13-10 and beating Washington 20-13......I was on the Huskies last weekend vs Stanford because I was thinking they might be looking ahead to this matchup with the #8 Irish.......anyway, I think Stanford will control this game with their running game and hit some big plays off of play action.......plus I think they will get at least two turnovers from the Irish which will set them up for some easy scores.......Lastly, we have the angle of the lowered ranked team being favored over the higher ranked team on THE ROAD......very important because I could see Stanford at home being favored but on the road I think the bookmakers are trying to get some heavy action on the Irish and as I post the public is favoring the ND side at 60%.....I do believe the line is going to go to 3 before game time and that is why I am already playing this one....Stanford wins 27-13!!!!!!


back with more on Thursday

GL

lewis

I totally agree on this one. Stanford Defense is for real...if they establish the run game, no way Notre Dame can win. Stats prove it...
 

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Here are some other games I am looking at:

Syracuse +2.5 they are facing Lou this week after facing ND last week........this line opened up at Lou -3.5 and has dropped to -2.5....it could be do to the loss of the starting QB for LOU this week......the perception of these two are totally opposite though.......everyone thinks Lou is still a good team and that Syr is a bad team who just lost to ND in a primetime game.......neither team in my opinion has a very good offense and I really think this game could go either way and Syracuse will be back in the Carrier Dome this week so they will have a true home field advantage......anyway, I am not sure on this one because of the injury but the UNDER might be a possibility in this one

Oklahoma -5 This line seems fishy to me but I just don't think TCU will be able to hang with OU for 4 quarters.......this is not the same TCU team from 4-5 years ago......this is a mediocre Big 12 team and they have recruited that way since they came into the conference......how do they hang around OU???? My contrarian ways make me want to play the Horned Frogs in this one but the reality is that OU has the better players and coaches............this might be one to just lay off of on Saturday

Florida +3 Tenn just played a tough game vs Georgia so I wonder how much they have left in the tank coming into this game while Florida had an off week after getting crushed by Alabama.........That week should have helped Coach Roper and the Gator offense get on track and ready for the Tenn defense which just gave up over 200 yards to Gurley.......I look for Florida to put up plenty of points and their defense to hold Tenn in check......This should be a play for sure but I am waiting to see if this line will go over 3........Tenn is getting too much credit here because of how close they played Georgia who has a really bad defense.....I am really close to pulling the trigger now.....Gators 35-17!!!!!!

Texas A&M +2.5 The Aggies come off of an emotional win vs Arkansas......I was on the Aggies last Saturday and I still feel like it was the right play because I believed the defense would show that they could slow down the ARK offense and I think they did that only giving up 21 points (fake punt for a TD I am not counting toward the defense) but the A&M offense was not clicking like they should have been which kept Ark in the game and allowed them to continue to run the ball and control the time of possession.......I will admit that I feel Miss St has their best team this year but I think A&M has their number and is in their heads somewhat after crushing them in Starkvegas and winning last year in Kyle Field......I think both teams will score plenty but I think the advantage the Aggies have on the outside vs one of the worst secondaries in the SEC will be exploited.......I think MSU will try the exact thing that worked for Ark (corner-press coverage) for 3 quarters on D but A&M figured it out and started making big plays.......if they play cover 2 you will see A&M go to the screen game and inside WR's will come more into play than they did against ARK and the way they were playing against A&M.....Everyone that watched the game last Saturday already knows they will be on MSU this week because their perception is that A&M got lucky and should have lost, A&M wont be able to stop the Bulldogs and their offense, and MSU at home vs an overrated team is easy money.......Prescott will get his numbers but until I see them beat A&M on the field I will continue to play the Aggies over the Bulldogs......I look for A&M to come out sharp after the scare in Jerry's World and the defense will do enough to give A&M the win in Starkvegas..........Texas Aggies 45-34!!!!!!!!

Michigan +3

Clemson -14

Utah +13


back tomorrow with a possible play

GL

lewis
 

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totally agree on Stanford and Florida but I like TCU,BOL brother,, stay hot
 

Your Bookies Worest Enemy
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Thanks for posting and good luck this week my friend!!!!
 

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I guess I should have listened to myself and just played the Under...........Syracuse is horrible and the main reason why is their coaching is bad.....anyway on to Saturday

already have:

10* Stanford -2

adding:

10* Texas A&M +3 -105
1* Texas A&M ML +135

10* Florida +3 -105
1* Florida ML +130

10* Navy -3 -115


back with more later

GL

lewis

GL

lewis
 

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all of my Saturday plays in one spot:

10* Stanford -2

10* Texas A&M +3 -105
1* Texas A&M ML +135

10* Florida +3 -105
1* Florida ML +130

10* Navy -3 -115

10* Nebraska +7
1* Nebraska ML +245

back later

GL

lewis
 

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Lotta love for Middies today...not sure I could bet against Irish today...under might be play there..gl..love your posts/piks..
 

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