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NFL Trends to Watch - October
By Marc Lawrence

The first month of the 2014 NFL season is now in the history books and with it we turn the page to October as the teams now begin to evolve.

Thanks to our all-knowing, well-oiled sports database, listed below as some of the good, bad and flat out ugly team trends in five situational categories – home, away, favorite, dog and division, compiled by various teams in games played throughout the month of October.

Pay close attention as ghosts and goblins from the past are suddenly knocking at the door.

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is a notoriously slow starter, but once October comes, that is when the Steelers normally start making a move. This is especially true against the spread at home where they are 29-15. Pitt has a Monday night game with Houston on Oct. 20 followed by Indianapolis visiting the Steel City.

Keep an eye on (Bad): History is against Cincinnati in this role, but this year’s squad might be trying to rewrite the past. The Bengals are 16-27 ATS this month, thus, let’s see how they do against Carolina (10/12) and with Baltimore in a revenge spot (10/26).

AWAY TEAMS

Good: No matter where he’s coached, Tom Coughlin has seen his teams produce on the road and he has been a big part as to why the New York Giants are 28-14 ATS this month away. The G-Men will have back-to-back division road games at Philadelphia and Dallas starting Oct. 12th.

Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta is right behind the Giants are 27-14 ATS, but will need its defense to play better. The Falcons travel to New Jersey to face the G-Men (10/5), Baltimore (10/19), followed by a visit to London versus Detroit.

Carolina has been another solid away crew with a 23-14 ATS record. However, their mettle will be tested twice, at Cincinnati (10/12) and at Green Bay (10/19).

Bad: One of the surprise teams of the early season has been Arizona. When the calendar turns to the second month of the season, this has been where the Cardinals have faltered with a 12-25 ATS record. Will this year’s team be different at Denver (10/5) and at Oakland (10/19)?

Keep an eye on (Bad): The defending Super Bowl champions Seattle have been a sorry bunch away from the Northwest at 17-33 ATS and they have three road contests as the hunted team is at Washington, St. Louis and Carolina. Nothing easy picking up all those air miles.

Tampa Bay off their huge upset at Pittsburgh has their third straight roadie headed to New Orleans on Oct. 5, attempting to improve on 14-27 ATS figure.

Let’s call it what it has been, a rotten month for Cincinnati. The Bengals are also a miserable 19-31 ATS away from the Queen City and will see Tom Brady (10/5) and Andrew Luck (10/19) on the road.

The complexion of the Minnesota offense has changed dramatically in the last month, which is not a good thing with a trio of away outings to Green Bay, Buffalo and Tampa Bay. This is especially true carrying an 18-28 ATS record.

FAVORITES

Bad: Surprise! Here we find the Bengals again at 10-21 ATS with the Panthers and Ravens being underdogs.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Kansas City is a bankroll depleting 10-18 ATS and on the last Sunday of the month will be favored over cross-state rival St. Louis in the Show Me State showdown.

Despite playing three road games this month, Seattle should be favored four times and are 13-23 ATS in October in this spot. Besides the aforementioned trio of away outings, they host Dallas on Oct. 12th.

Tampa Bay is just 15-25 ATS giving points and they might be a favorite on the 26th when Minnesota is in town.

DOGS

Good: The New York Giants as we mentioned will be at the Eagles and Cowboys and undoubtedly will be underdogs, a role they have excelled, at 22-10 ATS.

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina will be catching points three times this month at Cincy, at Green Bay and hosting the Seahawks, trying to better a 26-14 ATS mark. This might not be easy unless they show improvement.

Chicago is an underdog at Carolina on Oct. 5th and certainly will be receiving oddsmakers points at Atlanta the following week and 14 days later at New England. Will the Bears better 24-16 ATS record or do more Jay Cutler mistakes bury them?

Keep an eye on (Bad): Minnesota has been a bad doggy at 13-24 ATS and will be catching points the first two contests of the month vs. the Packers and Detroit. Road games at Buffalo and Tampa Bay means just catching fewer digits.

San Francisco’s 11-21 ATS mark as dogs predates the Jim Harbaugh days. The Niners will however be underdogs in Denver on Oct. 19th.

The Buccaneers will be dogs in New Orleans (Oct.5) and home when Baltimore pays a visit, with a home game against Minnesota TBD. No matter what, Tampa Bay is 19-29 ATS in October.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is solid bet here at 25-13 ATS and will be at rival Cleveland the day after the real Columbus Day.

The Giants and Jets are both 24-13 ATS in division and each has two confrontations in division. NY/1 travels to Philly and Big D, while NY/2 has a Thursday in New England and returns home 10 days later with Buffalo paying a visit.

Bad: Cincinnati has the worst division spread record of any team in any month at 11-29 ATS. Does this place them in trouble when Baltimore is in town on Oct. 26th?

With how good New Orleans has been in the Drew Brees era, it is easy to forget he too has contributed to the Saints 11-23 ATS mark against the NFC South.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Seattle’s recent success under Pete Carroll cannot hide a 15-26 ATS record in division. Just one occurrence happens at St. Louis on Oct. 19th.

You would think Jacksonville would be all over every month for playing badly. In division they are 13-22 ATS and travel to Tennessee on the second Sunday of the month.

Quarterly Power Rankings
By The SportsBoss

This is our first installment of the 2014 NFL season discussing my performance ratings and additional metrics/statistics that help us form opinions on each NFL team.

Let’s jump right into the numbers!

Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated by grading game by game performance in 16 different stats on both sides of the ball:


Performance Ratings

Category Offense Defense Total Team Blended Turnover
Wins Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank SOS Margin

3 SEA 55.0 3 42.3 5 97.3 1 3 0
3 IND 52.0 4 39.7 10 91.7 2 27 1
3 SF 47.3 13 44.0 2 91.3 3 17 5
2 NO 59.0 1 32.0 24 91.0 4 31 (7)
3 DEN 48.1 12 42.0 6 90.1 5 2 (1)
4 SD 49.3 10 40.8 8 90.1 5 29 6
4 DAL 58.6 2 31.3 25 89.9 7 15 (1)
3 DET 36.8 25 51.6 1 88.4 8 26 (2)
3 NYG 46.9 14 41.2 7 88.1 9 28 0
2 MIA 44.8 16 43.0 4 87.8 10 18 0
3 BAL 51.0 7 36.2 14 87.2 11 11 2
3 PIT 50.8 8 36.1 15 86.9 12 32 (1)
3 CIN 51.4 5 35.1 18 86.5 13 9 3
2 KC 43.8 17 38.1 11 81.9 14 7 (3)
2 CHI 43.7 18 37.9 13 81.6 15 20 1
1 WAS 45.0 15 35.7 17 80.7 16 24 (5)
3 NE 42.5 20 38.1 11 80.6 17 30 6
2 ATL 51.3 6 28.4 28 79.7 18 25 (3)
3 BUF 35.9 28 43.7 3 79.6 19 8 6
1 STL 48.3 11 30.9 26 79.1 20 23 (3)
1 NYJ 36.1 26 40.8 8 76.9 21 19 (7)
3 GB 41.1 21 33.9 19 75.0 22 13 6
1 TEN 40.8 23 33.2 20 74.0 23 7 0
4 PHI 40.3 24 33.2 20 73.5 24 14 (4)
3 CAR 40.9 22 32.5 23 73.4 25 12 4
3 HOU 43.0 19 30.3 27 73.3 26 22 4
2 CLE 50.3 9 22.0 32 72.3 27 5 3
3 ARI 35.5 29 35.9 16 71.4 28 1 4
2 MIN 34.9 30 33.0 22 67.9 29 22 (2)
1 TB 36.1 26 25.1 31 61.2 30 16 (2)
0 OAK 28.8 31 26.3 30 55.0 31 10 (4)
0 JAC 26.9 32 27.1 29 54.0 32 4 (6)


At the top we see six playoff teams from last season with the Super Bowl combatants Seattle & Denver in the Top 5; let’s discuss these six teams briefly:

Seatle: No surprise seeing the defending Super Bowl champions at the top of the ratings after five weeks, four games for the Seahawks. Seattle was outplayed in their only loss of the season to San Diego in Week 2; in their other three outings they posted grades of 113, 100 & 109 – very strong. Not only are they performing well, seemingly avoiding the dreaded Super Bowl hangover, they have faced the 3rd toughest schedule (ARI #1, DEN #2), another strong indication this team is once again at the top of the NFL.

Indianapolis: The Colts have NOT graded out well the last two seasons despite posting 11 wins in each of Andrew Luck’s first two NFL seasons (#16 in 2013 & #24 in 2012). This year so far on aggregate has been different – but keep in mind two things: one, they were outplayed badly in their opening two games vs. fellow 2013 playoff teams Denver & Philadelphia; two, they increased their aggregate grade through five games with triple digit marks vs. Jacksonville, Tennessee & Baltimore. Let’s see where the Colts stand after their next five games before getting too excited they have turned the corner & are a true Super Bowl contender in the AFC.

San Francisco: The Niners are back in a very familiar spot inside the Top 5 checking in at #3 this week. Many in the media panicked after their first three games (I certainly did not because we saw the same story in the 2013 season), but SF got back to running the ball & took care of business in their last two vs. fellow 2013 playoff teams PhiladelphiaI & Kansas City (albeit both games were at home). They have outplayed four of five opponents thus far (only game they did not was at Arizona where they still managed a grade of 78, meaning they were narrowly outplayed) and still have the look of an NFC contender in the numbers.

New Orleans: Without question the biggest surprise to many will be the Saints, who check in at #4 in the performance ratings. It’s very easy to see what their main issue has been so far this season – turnovers. They are tied with New York Jets for worst TOM in the NFL – and if they do figure out a way to fix that issue they are playing solid football – albeit only on the offensive side where they rank #1. Their defense is a big issue & it only got worse losing S Byrd last week. With a remaining schedule that ranks 2nd toughest in the NFL according to opponent wins through the early part of this season it’s clearly going to be an uphill battle for the Saints in 2014.

Denver:The Broncos check in tied for the 5th spot with division rival San Diego, but have faced the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL to this point vs. SD’s 29th. Each of their first four opponents won 10+ games in 2013 & outside this week’s trip to NYJ they will see 2013 10+ win teams through Week 9 before facing Oakland, St. Louis & Miami in consecutive weeks. Although they were able to push the Seahawks to OT on a vintage Peyton Manning drive late in the 4th quarter they were badly outplayed in that game to the tune of 99-61: meaning the final score was not indicative of how dominant the Seahawks really were on that day (most of you probably realized that by watching the game). Denver will be near the top of the ratings all season long, but once again their season will come down to their success in January & perhaps February.

San Diego: The Chargers are tied with Denver at this point for 5th, and are a clear player for the AFC Super Bowl berth. Head Coach Mike McCoy has revitalized Philip Rivers’ career, but can they get over those Broncos in the AFC West remains a big question, especially with the injuries in their backfield to RBs Matthews & Woodhead. SD’s SOS to date checks in at 29th in the NFL and that INCLUDES a game vs. Seattle – showing just how weak their other 4 opponents have been. Expect the Chargers to be around 9-2 before their final 5 games of the regular season that feature @BAL, NE, DEN, @SF, @KC – those five are likely to tell the story of their regular season.

Next is my red flag/green light identification. Here I will ONLY use my performance ratings & TOM to identify teams that could be undervalued (green light) by Vegas because they are performing better than many believe versus red flag teams that have an inflated record and reputation in Vegas compared to their true on the field performance.

Red Flag: Arizona (w/o QB Carson Palmer), Houston, Carolina

Green Light: New Orleans, Dallas, Kansas City

Now let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape. Here are the figures – I simply take each team’s performance rating ranking from first matrix, sum up each division’s four teams and rank with the lowest rating being the toughest (because #1 is the best / #32 the worst):


Division Rankings

Division Rating Overall Rank
NFC West 52 1
AFC West 55 2
NFC East 56 3
AFC North 63 4
AFC East 67 5
NFC North 74 6
NFC South 77 7
AFC South 83 8


Here are the current playoff projections where I use my power ratings to play out the entire season.

AFC Playoffs
#1 Denver
#2 Cincinnati
#3 Indianapolis
#4 New England
#5 San Diego
#6 Baltimore

NFC Playoffs
#1 Seattle
#2 Dallas
#3 Detroit
#4 Carolina
#5 Arizona
#6 Philadelphia

Each team’s power rating, which can change week to week based on my performance ratings, provides a projected spread on each game (including a home field advantage/road disadvantage variable) which then correlates to a % chance at winning each game. I simply add up the sums for each team, adjust for actual results once those games are played, and it all comes to my projected standings listed above. One aspect of this analysis to note is the teams will be slightly more “bunched” compared to where team’s actual records will finish (especially early in the season) – meaning, using this analysis to project order of finish, playoff berths and seeds is very accurate, but using it to project actual wins and losses will not be as accurate since teams on the outer edges of wins (very high or very low) will typically win more/less than projected.

Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings.


Weekly Power Rankings

Rank Team
1 Denver
2 Seattle
3 Cincinnati
4 Indianapolis
4 San Diego
6 Dallas
7 Detroit
8 Arizona
8 N.Y. Giants
10 San Francisco
11 New Orleans
12 Philadelphia
13 Green Bay
13 Baltimore
15 Carolina
16 New England
17 Kansas City
17 Pittsburgh
19 Atlanta
19 Washington
21 Chicago
22 Buffalo
23 Miami
24 N.Y. Jets
25 Houston
26 Cleveland
27 Minnesota
28 Tampa Bay
29 Tennessee
30 St. Louis
31 Oakland
32 Jacksonville

DINERO
TALKS

NFL: Sharps vs. Public

"Sharps" and the public collided on Sunday. In many cases, both won.

If you got in on the Rams early, they bailed you out down the stretch with a miraculous late run. If you waited closer to kickoff, you could've gotten the Eagles laying as little as four points, then sweated out that final drive with those looking on in horror at the Linc. I got in at 5.5 and won, holding my breath as Austin Davis heaves repeatedly carved up the Philly secondary.

Even as a winner, it was one of those games where I felt I needed a shower afterward. The Eagles didn't play well and still led 34-7. "Sharps" everywhere were looking for anything sharp to poke their eyes out. That a Chip Kelly team covered for only some against a kid making his second career road start was striking considering they had him buried. DeMeco Ryans got hurt and Mychal Kendricks was out, but Philadelphia's defense struggling against a passing game that is still gaining traction screamed of a major mental letdown, not a physical one.

"Sharps" and the public collided on Monday. It was agonizing, but the lowly public won.

There were multiple schools of thought on it, from fading the team traveling cross-country, especially with as much as 7.5-to-8 points as an enticement, to simply going Legion of Boom against Kirk Cousins and hoping for carnage. After all, Cousins was reckless in his last outing and fed the Giants rout, so another primetime showcase could yield another implosion.

Both strategies had their merit, but "sharps" sat down and to feast on fading the public and getting points, only to be foiled when Russell Wilson's tremendous play down the stretch wrapped up what should've been a far more lopsided outcome if not for all the touchdowns called back on flags for inconsequential infractions that typically go unpunished.

If you're crying about Steven Hauschka's late field goal delivering the double-digit lead Seattle commanded with its play over 60 minutes, I wouldn't offer you a tissue.

Week 5 saw heavy sharp play on Kansas City knock the 49ers back from 7.5-to-4.5 point favorites, resulting in splits and an abundance of pushes when the 49ers settled for a field goal instead of getting into the end zone and Alex Smith's conquering hero drive ended with an interception.

Buffalo's win in Detroit ended with Jim Schwartz on the shoulders of Bills players, but you all know the kicker lost that game. Alex Henery going 0-for-3 not only resulted in a loss that could haunt the Lions in December, it killed the cover that closed at 4.5, too.

The Lions' injuries obviously played a huge role in blowing a 14-0 deficit, but I wonder how sharp bettors felt for most of the afternoon, watching Kyle Orton struggle on the road while getting blanked by an underrated defense.

The lesson here? It's okay to be on the public side if you're backing a winner. If you're chasing waterfalls for the sake of taking points or simply to go against the grain, that doesn't seem very astute at all. It's great to say that Vegas doesn't have all those pretty buildings up because they lose more than they win, but that's a dangerous game to play with your funds at stake.

Sharp? Public? Seems a little snobby to me. Right and wrong are the only sides that count. Looking at line moves and what percentage of bets are coming in on sides and totals is part of my routine when looking at games, but I wouldn't fade the public just because. Be careful with that.

NOTE: To be clear, I'll be making an attempt to get at you readers daily, often multiple times a day across all the major sports, college and pro. With a new baby and a nasty bug going around that broke through my defenses this past weekend, I've gotten off to a slow start with this new blog. By all means, please bookmark and check back often. There promises to be a lot of juicy goodies to snack on.

Tech Trends - Week 6
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Oct. 12

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

DENVER at NY JETS...Broncos "under" 7-2-1 last ten since late 2013, but "over" last week vs. Cards. Denver 9-4 as visiting chalk since Manning arrived in 2012. Broncos and "under," based on recent trends.

PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND...First rematch of season. Steelers had covered three straight in series before failing to do so in opener, and have covered only 2 of last 7 at Cleveland. Steel "over" 7-3 last ten since late 2013. Browns "over" 4-0 TY and 9-3-1 last 13 since mid 2013. "Over" based on "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE...Jags "over" 3-1-1 TY, 6-3-1 "over" last nine since late 2013. Jags no covers last four on road. Titans 1-7-1 vs. line last 8 at Nashville. "Over," based on recent Jag "totals" trends.

CHICAGO at ATLANTA...Chicago "over" 8-1 last 9 since late 2013. Home team has won and covered first five Falcon games TY. . "Over" and Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.

GREEN BAY at MIAMI...Pack has back-to-back wins and covers, also "over" 4-1 TY. Pack "over" 9-2 last 11 reg.-season games. Dolphins 6-1-1 as home dog since 2012. "Over" and Dolphins, based on "totals" and team trends.

DETROIT at MINNESOTA...Minn. "over" 8-2 last 10 as host, and Vikes 4-0-1 vs. line last five at home vs. Detroit. Lions still 7-15-1 last 23 vs. line away but did win and cover last as visitor at Jets. Lions "under" 7-1 last 8 since late 2013. Vikes, based on series trends.

CAROLINA at CINCINNATI...Panthers were 8-1 last nine as road dog prior to Ravens loss. Slight to Panthers, based on team trends.

NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO...Pats have only lost since vs. Bills since 2003 (20-1 SU last 21) but have dropped 2 of last 3 vs. number at Orchard Park. Bills were 6-1 as home dog LY. Slight to Bills, based on recent trends.

BALTIMORE at TAMPA BAY...Ravens "over" 8-5-1 last 14 since mid 2013. Baltimore 4-6-1 last 11 as visiting chalk. Bucs no covers last three as host. Slight to "over" and Ravens, based on "totals" and team trends.

SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND...Bolts 5-0 vs. line TY, 7-0 last 6 and 10-1 last 101since late 2013. But SD only 1-3 as road chalk since 2012 and lost at Oakland LY. Raiders 3-8 last 11 as home dog. Slight to Chargers, based on team trends.

DALLAS at SEATTLE...Pete Carroll 15-5 vs. line as host since 2012. Dallas 1-0 as road dog TY and 7-3 last 10 in role. Dallas also "over" 7-5 last 12 since late 2013. Seahawks and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

WASHINGTON at ARIZONA...Skins 2-3 vs. line TY, 4-8 last 12 on board since mid 2013 (prior to Sea.) Arians 6-3-1 vs. line as host since LY. Big Red also "under" 6-3 last 9. Cards and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA...G-Men have won and covered last 3. Coughlin 15-9 last 24 as dog and has covered last 3 at Linc. Birds only 4-7as home chalk for Chip and 4-11 in role since 2012. Giants, based on team trends.


Monday, Oct. 13

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SAN FRANCISCO at ST. LOUIS...Niners 7-1 as road chalk since LY, and Harbaugh 19-9-1 vs. line away from home since 2011. Fisher 0-2 vs. line at home TY, also "over' 7-4 last 11 at Edward Jones Dome. 49ers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Inside the Stats - Week 6
By Marc Lawrence

GOING INSIDE THE STATS

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles.

These are the teams playing this week who lost bogus ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game, meaning they lost the game lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:

NFL: St. Louis Rams (2nd straight game)

HOT TRENDS

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

The Minnesota Vikings are 11-1 ATS at home off a loss of 20 or more points, including 5-0 ATS in division games.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 8-0 SU and ATS away in games after facing the Jacksonville Jaguars.

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 8-0 SU and ATS in his last eight division games after winning SU as an underdog the previous game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Lovie Smith is 0-7 ATS in his NFL career as a non-division dog in games in which his team owns a losing record.

Defending Super Bowl losers (read: Denver Broncos) are 1-9 ATS versus non-division opponents that scored 3 or fewer points in its previous game.

Defending Super Bowl champions (read: Seattle Seahawks) are just 7-9 SU and 3-13 ATS home after a Monday Night game, including 0-5 SU and ATS the last five games.


STAT OF THE WEEK

The Cincinnati Bengals are 11-0 SU and ATS in their last eleven regular season home games.

[h=1]NFL System Picks Week 6[/h]
Seattle’s last-minute field goal did me in last week, lowering the record to 7-3 on the NFL season.
When you have a tendency to go against the betting public and take those ugly teams that nobody could possibly wager on, there are plenty of times you look extremely stupid when a game ends. Such is going to be the case this week when we go with the Oakland Raiders+7 at home against the San Diego Chargers.
The Chargers looked impressive last week in dismantling the New York Jets 31-0 in a game that they completely dominated from the very beginning. The Jets didn’t do anything until the game had long been decided and even then they didn’t do much.
But teams who are road favorites of seven or more points and coming off a game in which they scored 28 or more points are just 43-65-1 since 2002, which translates to 39.8%. Road favorites of a touchdown or more who won their last game by 30 or more points cover the spread at a 40% ratio and are just 2-6-1 in their last nine attempts.
The Chargers are undefeated against the point spread on the year, which is one reason more than 80% of the wagers have been coming in on San Diego, which is something you never want to see if you are backing the favorite in this spot.
While the Chargers are in several negative situations, the Raiders are in several positives, including one that situation that shows home underdogs of six or more points are 14-6 against the spread when they are coming off a bye week. Home underdogs of a touchdown or more coming off four consecutive straight-up losses are 26-18-0 (59.1%) when they are playing a team that has won its last three games, giving the Raiders another checkmark.
The Raiders have been embarrassed at home both games so far this season, losing 30-14 to Houston and getting pounded 38-14 by the Dolphins the week before their bye, so expect them to put forth a solid effort and keep this one closer than the oddsmakers expect.

by Alan Moody

Total Talk - Week 6
October 11, 2014
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 5 Recap

There was a nice balance in the totals market last weekend as the ‘under’ produced an 8-7record and most of the results were clear-cut winners. Of the 15 games, only two of them changed gears in the second-half and it wasn't exactly outrageous.

New Orleans and Tampa Bay combined for 68 points and 45 of those came in the final two quarters and overtime. This ‘over’ (48) winner was helped with a defensive touchdown and a safety.

Conversely, San Francisco led Kansas City 13-10 at the break and even though that’s not a shootout, the first-half ‘over’ (22.5) connected. In the final two quarters, only 16 points were produced and the ‘under’ (43) connected. The 49ers continue to settle for field goals, and those are killers if you own an ‘over’ ticket.

Make a note that San Francisco has more field goals (11-10) made this season than offensive touchdowns. Other teams that fit this role are the Bills (13-7), Cardinals (11-7), Patriots (13-10) and Vikings (10-9). The Jets (8-8) and Steelers (10-10) have also struggled to put up sixes instead of threes.

Through five weeks of the season, the ‘over’ is 39-37.

Systems Win & Lose

The Seahawks defeated the Redskins 27-17 last Monday and the ‘under’ (45.5) connected. That result ended an incredible run for the total system that we’ve been mentioning for the last three weeks.

For those of you reading “Total Talk” for the first time, we’ll bring you up to speed. All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Despite the loss on MNF in Week 5, this angle has produced a 17-3-1 record (85%) dating back to last season, which includes a 3-1 mark this season.

The system takes us to South Florida on Sunday with the Dolphins hosting the Packers, who defeated Minnesota 42-10 last Thursday. The total is hovering between 48 ½ and 49 points and I’m not strong on the ‘over’ or ‘under’ for this matchup.

Green Bay can put up points in bunches and it rarely settles for field goals (5) compared to touchdowns (15). However, Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin does know Packers QB Aaron Rodgers well and that makes me believe Miami will try to grind this game out, keep the Pack offense on the sidelines and use the head to their advantage.

Miami is off its bye (see below) and the offense did look sharp in its last game (38-14) albeit against Oakland. The Packers have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 this season and they’ve had a knack for scoring against the AFC. In their last nine non-conference affairs, Green Bay is averaging 32.2 points per game, which includes a 31-point effort versus the N.Y. Jets in Week 2.

Lastly, I hope you all played the ‘over’ in New Orleans-Tampa Bay last weekend. That total road system has been very solid and it’s now 1-0 this season. It comes back in play three more times in the second-half of the season and I’ll be sure to bring it to your attention!

Off the Bye

Last week was the first time this season that we had teams playing off their bye week, six of them in total.

Cleveland: The Browns rallied for a 29-28 win over the Titans.

St. Louis: The Rams came out flat and couldn’t secure a comeback win at the Eagles, losing 34-28.

Arizona at Denver: Both teams were off the by and the Broncos won 41-20.

Cincinnati: The Bengals didn’t come to play and were blasted 43-17 at New England.

Seattle: The Seahawks dropped the Redskins 27-17 in D.C. on MNF.

It’s still early but if you played the ‘over’ blindly, you would’ve went 4-1. Outside of Seattle, who was a healthy road favorite, the other four road teams all fell behind early and wound up going 2-3, Cleveland joining the ‘Hawks as the lone winners.

The two teams off the bye this week are Miami and Oakland, both playing at home.

Divisional Battles

Week 6 has eight divisional games on tap, six slated for Sunday and one Monday. On Thursday, the Colts held off the Texans for a 33-28 victory.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: It’s rare to see two teams playing for the second time this early in the season but that’s the case here. In Week 1, the Steelers dropped the Browns 30-27 and the ‘over’ (41) cashed in the third quarter. Prior to this shootout, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run in this series. Cleveland has watched the ‘over’ cash in all four of its games and those results are a product of a decent offense and weak defense. The oddsmakers have taken notice and this week’s total is up six points to 47 for the rematch in Ohio. Pittsburgh has seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 on the road and that SNF affair in Carolina which went 'over' was a tad misleading.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: Even though neither team is known as offensive juggernauts, they’re always good for one shootout a season when they square off. The last three seasons, the ‘over/under’ has produced a 1-1 result between the pair which could have me betting the opposite result when they meet again in Week 16.

Detroit at Minnesota: The ‘over’ is on a 4-2 run in this series and that includes a 2-1 run in Minnesota, who used to play indoors. Keep an eye on injuries for this matchup.

New England at Buffalo: This might be the toughest total to handicap this week. The ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings yet we’re starting at a total of 45, which is the lowest O/U during this span. The Bills have seen the ‘under’ go 5-0 this season while the Patriots have leaned to the ‘over’ (3-2). A lot of bettors are believers in Tom Brady and it’s hard to bet against him (I’ve been guilty too) but this Buffalo defense is legit. The unit is ranked fourth in points (17.8), eighth in yards allowed (324.8) and they’re tired for first in sacks (17). Winner takes over first place in the AFC East and I’m expecting a tightly contested game.

San Diego at Oakland: The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four encounters. This number opened 42 ½ and has been pushed up to 43 ½ points at most shops. The Raiders are off the bye and they do have a new coach so you might want to watch and learn more about this team.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: (See Below)

San Francisco at St. Louis: (See Below)

Under the Lights

Through 17 primetime games this season, the ‘over’ has produced a 14-3 record (82%) and that includes the Colts-Texans winning ticket on Thursday. As mentioned last week, this number will balance out and I believe a pair of divisional battles should help the cause this weekend.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: I don’t plan on having a horse in this race but I’d be careful betting the ‘over’ in this game. The number opened 51 and was dropped to 50 at some shops. I would’ve expected a higher total just based on pace as the Eagles (68.2) and Giants (67.8) are ranked in fifth and sixth in plays per game. Plus, the Giants offense is getting rave reviews the last three weeks (105 points), deservingly too. However, even though the Eagles have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 this season, the offense has scored two touchdowns the last two weeks while the defense and special teams have accounted for five touchdowns. One thing people aren’t talking about is New York’s defense, which has given up 17, 14 and 20 points the last three weeks. The ‘over/under’ is 2-2 in the last four meetings between the pair.

San Francisco at St. Louis: There aren’t many solid trends for this matchup with the total going 2-2 in the last four meetings. It’s hard to make a case for the ‘over’ in this spot just based on the inefficiencies of the 49ers offense (see above), which also has some key injuries (OT, TE). Still, it’s obvious that St. Louis has clearly dropped off defensively (29.8 PPG) through its first four games. To only have one sack in four game is embarrassing, especially after tallying 53 last season. What’s even funnier is that this group was considered to have great depth during training camp. You think Michael Sam is smiling?

Fearless Predictions

Two easy wins, two easy losers last week. After five weeks, the deficit sits at $60. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Chicago-Atlanta 54
Best Under: Pittsburgh-Cleveland 47
Best Team Total: Over Chicago 25.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 45 Chicago-Atlanta
Over 38 Seattle-Dallas
Under 52.5 Detroit-Minnesota

Chris David

NFL Week 6 line watch: Act fast if you like the Eagles
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

This is the week of the home dog. When the Week 6 lines first hit the books, no fewer than seven of the 11 games that had numbers available featured home teams getting points.

One that doesn’t has the Giants at Philly in a game that could make things even messier at the top of the NFC East. The Eagles have hardly been dominant at home over the past several years, and even last year when the Giants were going belly up, NY managed to come into Philly and beat the Eagles outright, 15-7.

The Eagles are a different team this time around, though, and while neither team has played against much A-level competition, the Eagles look like they are ready to start putting up decent numbers and New York might have been playing a little over its head.

If you’re on the Eagles, eat the points now before this becomes a field goal game.

Spread to wait on

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)

Early-week money is heavy on the Ravens in this one, figuring Baltimore will use the Buccaneers as retaliation after losing in Indianapolis. But scrape below the surface a bit and we can see that Tampa Bay’s 1-4 record is a bit misleading.

The Bucs were a possession away from beating Carolina and St. Louis in Weeks 1 and 2, knocked off the Steelers in Pittsburgh, then had the Saints pinned on the mat on Sunday, leading by 11 in the fourth period before running out of gas in overtime.

Tampa Bay may fall victim to injuries and a lack of depth as we get to November, but right now the Bucs are competing. And with heavy money already on the Ravens, it’s worthwhile swimming with the sharps on this one, seeing if the line nudges up a bit and then playing TB at 4 or 4.5.

Total to watch

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (46.5)

Life is miserable for the QB-less Jets right now, sitting at 1-4 and seeing Buffalo playing well and the Patriots back on track. Looks like another lost season in East Rutherford.

The NYJ really need a competitive game to keep their fan base from outright rebellion. The only way to do that against the Broncos is to run the ball, keep possession as much as possible and hope to move the chains well enough early to put a score on the board and prevent things from getting out of hand. If you think they can do that, an under play is worth a look. Besides, you can still cash on the under even if the final is 43-3 Denver.

Week 6 Look-Ahead
By Tony Mejia

Flash back to where you were two months ago and imagine your reaction if someone called Sunday's Week 6 showdown between the Seahawks and Cowboys a potential NFC Championship preview.

I'm still looking around for someone to come snatch up my laptop before one of these keystrokes. Even Jerry Jones spent August tempering the expectations of his often delusional fan base.

"You know we've got an uphill battle this year," Jones told those in attendance at the Cowboys annual kickoff luncheon. It almost seemed like an early white flag. Jones isn't known to make concessions, but probably felt he need to given how bleak things looked back then. Dallas has an uphill battle ahead in Seattle, too, but the mountain suddenly doesn't seem as steep.

In a week where a few resounding statements can be made, Dallas can make the loudest.

That said, they don't even have to win. Covering would mean the Cowboys had a productive day. Giving themselves a chance to steal the game entering the fourth quarter would be something to build on. Not getting blown out would be ideal.

The Seahawks have won 17 of their last 18 games at CenturyLink Field. They've got the best run defense in the league (2.6 ypc), poised to butt heads with DeMarco Murray and a standout offensive line anchoring a ground game that's ammassed an NFL-best 800 rushing yards.

A Cowboys win would mean the star would be everywhere you looked.

Jones would be on top of the world, if only temporarily, for the first time this decade. His team hasn't been four games over .500 in a season since last making the playoffs in 2009.

Teams that have won on Monday night are just 2-3 the following Sunday this season, while the Seahawks have won just of one of their last three games in this situation over the past two seasons. The win came last November at home against Tampa Bay in overtime. Seattle came out flat off the short week and fell behind 21-0. It can't afford a poor early effort against the Cowboys, but isn't as likely to overlook its opponent as it did last year's Bucs, which had then-rookie Mike Glennon making his second road start.

The NFC East's other top contenders meet in Philadelphia on Sunday night in another statement game. Any other week, you could expect Eagles linebackers DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks to certainly be out after failing to practice Wednesday and carrying lingering injuries into the weekend, but there's a genuine possibility exceptions are made given the magnitude of this one.

The Giants saw the light turn on for them roughly a quarter into Week 3. After being held scoreless for the first 22 minutes of action against a tough Texans defense, an offense that had scored just a pair of touchdowns in each of their opening two games against Houston and Arizona went on a season-altering drive fittingly culminated by Victor Cruz finding the end zone for the first time this season. New York has scored in every single quarter since, taking down Washington and Atlanta.

The Eagles have struggled offensively the past few weeks, but saw their own struggling big-play threat, Riley Cooper, break through to make the Rams game a full blowout, at least temporarily. A Chip Kelly offense won't look ordinary for long, but it is sputtering. Inconsistent passing, frequent drops and too much dancing east to west from an unproductive LeSean McCoy have been glaring issues. This is an important home game for Nick Foles, who still hasn't inspired confidence among the fan base despite often gaudy numbers and last year's emergence.

Few are calling for backup Mark Sanchez yet, but that's only because special teams and defensive scores have the Eagles 4-1 instead of sub-.500. Beating the Giants at home would take some pressure off Foles and McCoy, which sounds strange given the .800 winning percentage.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the 1-4 Jets haven't been able to adequately replace Sanchez with former first-round pick Geno Smith, which is even stranger to write. Brandon Weeden, Blaine Gabbert and JaMarcus Russell are the only starting QBs to make at least 15 starts and have had a worst QBR to start their careers since 2007. All are considered busts, with two currently backups and Russell out of football. Smith has a higher ceiling, but combined with last week's missed meeting on Saturday night and his lackluster start on Sunday, boos are sure to rain down on Smith if he plays poorly early and New York falls behind early at home against Denver.

Michael Vick, who first engaged Peyton Manning in a battle of former No. 1 picks way back in 2003, could see action despite looking no better than Smith in San Diego. Two of the more heralded quarterbacks of their era have taken the field on opposite sides a handful of times over their lengthy careers, with Vick winning once in Philadelphia. Manning has won the majority of their duels, including last year's Eagles-Broncos game by a count of 52-20. Following the loss, Vick would make only one more appearance as the Eagles starter and saw his first extensive action as New York's backup only last week.

Considering Rex Ryan hasn't shied away from the fact his days are numbered if he can't get things turned around, these next 10 days are critical to his future coming off a 31-0 loss in San Diego where he was openly defied, er, victimized by confusion over a time-zone change. With the Broncos in town and a trip to New England scheduled for next Thursday, there's a possibility we'll get a Friday dismissal of Ryan if the Jets effort the next two games is as ghastly as it was at Qualcomm.

Tony Sparano will make his debut as Raiders interim coach against San Diego, so the former Jets offensive coordinator will certainly be in touch with his son, Tony, Jr., who is still on staff as New York's offensive assistant. He'll probably want to try exactly the opposite of what the Jets set out to do, but does share similar obstacles against the Chargers that Ryan failed to overcome.

Rookie Derek Carr is still raw, his top receivers have struggled with injuries and subsequent rhythm issues and the defense is hindered by a banged-up vulnerable secondary. The Chargers will look to stay focused on executing at a high level in spite of their level of competition of late. This will mark the third consecutive week they'll have faced one of the current bottom three in VI's NFL power rankings. They've cruised, 65-14, through the first two.

There's a debate about whether the Chargers are truly elite or a product of their light schedule since their Week 2 upset of Seattle, but putting together another complete performance in a lopsided win would keep them right there with Denver atop the AFC.

Other teams capable of taking a major step forward include the Colts and Texans, who battle for AFC South supremacy on Thursday night, and the Patriots and Bills, who will vie for first in the AFC East on Sunday.

Buffalo has a new owner, a new quarterback and momentum thanks to the brilliance of its kicker Dan Carpenter, who capitalized on the ineptitude of now-dismissed counterpart Alex Henery in Detroit by helping to steal a result.

New England went out and quieted critics by humbling Cincinnati, but remains just 1-2 on the road. The Patriots have won the last five meetings between the long-time rivals, but Doug Marrone had some success against Bill Belichick in his first season, leading his NFL coaching debut until the final five seconds and hanging within a touchdown at Foxboro until the final minutes.

Given that Cincinnati and Baltimore both appear superior, Steelers-Browns has the feel of an AFC North elimination game. No, the loser won't have to leave the division, but they will probably be a safe bet to bring up the rear in 2014 based on what we've seen to date.

Following Monday night's meeting between the 49ers and Rams, every team will be just under or over one-third of the way through their schedule. The season is flying by.

Flash forward to where we'll be two months and expect a few things to be drastically different. Can't help but wonder what my reaction will be when reminded it was acceptable to call Sunday's Week 6 showdown between the Seahawks and Cowboys a potential NFC Championship preview.

Gridiron Angles - Week 6
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Redskins are 11-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since October 5, 2003 as a road dog after playing at home in each of the previous two weeks.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Eagles are 0-13 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since November 28, 2010 as a favorite when the total is under 53 after playing as a home favorite last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Russell Wilson is 10-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) in his career coming off a game where he completed at least 72% of his passes.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS as a dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.8 yards per carry season-to-date.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Falcons are 0-11 OU (-7.05 ppg) since November 22, 1998 as a home favorite when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that won last game despite allowing at least 175 rushing yards are 122-98-5 ATS. Active on Dallas.

Total Talk - Week 6
By Chris David

Week 5 Recap

There was a nice balance in the totals market last weekend as the ‘under’ produced an 8-7 record and most of the results were clear-cut winners. Of the 15 games, only two of them changed gears in the second-half and it wasn't exactly outrageous.

New Orleans and Tampa Bay combined for 68 points and 45 of those came in the final two quarters and overtime. This ‘over’ (48) winner was helped with a defensive touchdown and a safety.

Conversely, San Francisco led Kansas City 13-10 at the break and even though that’s not a shootout, the first-half ‘over’ (22.5) connected. In the final two quarters, only 16 points were produced and the ‘under’ (43) connected. The 49ers continue to settle for field goals, and those are killers if you own an ‘over’ ticket.

Make a note that San Francisco has more field goals (11-10) made this season than offensive touchdowns. Other teams that fit this role are the Bills (13-7), Cardinals (11-7), Patriots (13-10) and Vikings (10-9). The Jets (8-8) and Steelers (10-10) have also struggled to put up sixes instead of threes.

Through five weeks of the season, the ‘over’ is 39-37.

Systems Win & Lose

The Seahawks defeated the Redskins 27-17 last Monday and the ‘under’ (45.5) connected. That result ended an incredible run for the total system that we’ve been mentioning for the last three weeks.

For those of you reading “Total Talk” for the first time, we’ll bring you up to speed. All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Despite the loss on MNF in Week 5, this angle has produced a 17-3-1 record (85%) dating back to last season, which includes a 3-1 mark this season.

The system takes us to South Florida on Sunday with the Dolphins hosting the Packers, who defeated Minnesota 42-10 last Thursday. The total is hovering between 48 ½ and 49 points and I’m not strong on the ‘over’ or ‘under’ for this matchup.

Green Bay can put up points in bunches and it rarely settles for field goals (5) compared to touchdowns (15). However, Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin does know Packers QB Aaron Rodgers well and that makes me believe Miami will try to grind this game out, keep the Pack offense on the sidelines and use the head to their advantage.

Miami is off its bye (see below) and the offense did look sharp in its last game (38-14) albeit against Oakland. The Packers have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 this season and they’ve had a knack for scoring against the AFC. In their last nine non-conference affairs, Green Bay is averaging 32.2 points per game, which includes a 31-point effort versus the N.Y. Jets in Week 2.

Lastly, I hope you all played the ‘over’ in New Orleans-Tampa Bay last weekend. That total road system has been very solid and it’s now 1-0 this season. It comes back in play three more times in the second-half of the season and I’ll be sure to bring it to your attention!

Off the Bye

Last week was the first time this season that we had teams playing off their bye week, six of them in total.

Cleveland: The Browns rallied for a 29-28 win over the Titans.

St. Louis: The Rams came out flat and couldn’t secure a comeback win at the Eagles, losing 34-28.

Arizona at Denver: Both teams were off the by and the Broncos won 41-20.

Cincinnati: The Bengals didn’t come to play and were blasted 43-17 at New England.

Seattle: The Seahawks dropped the Redskins 27-17 in D.C. on MNF.

It’s still early but if you played the ‘over’ blindly, you would’ve went 4-1. Outside of Seattle, who was a healthy road favorite, the other four road teams all fell behind early and wound up going 2-3, Cleveland joining the ‘Hawks as the lone winners.

The two teams off the bye this week are Miami and Oakland, both playing at home.

Divisional Battles

Week 6 has eight divisional games on tap, six slated for Sunday and one Monday. On Thursday, the Colts held off the Texans for a 33-28 victory.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: It’s rare to see two teams playing for the second time this early in the season but that’s the case here. In Week 1, the Steelers dropped the Browns 30-27 and the ‘over’ (41) cashed in the third quarter. Prior to this shootout, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run in this series. Cleveland has watched the ‘over’ cash in all four of its games and those results are a product of a decent offense and weak defense. The oddsmakers have taken notice and this week’s total is up six points to 47 for the rematch in Ohio. Pittsburgh has seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 on the road and that SNF affair in Carolina which went 'over' was a tad misleading.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: Even though neither team is known as offensive juggernauts, they’re always good for one shootout a season when they square off. The last three seasons, the ‘over/under’ has produced a 1-1 result between the pair which could have me betting the opposite result when they meet again in Week 16.

Detroit at Minnesota: The ‘over’ is on a 4-2 run in this series and that includes a 2-1 run in Minnesota, who used to play indoors. Keep an eye on injuries for this matchup.

New England at Buffalo: This might be the toughest total to handicap this week. The ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings yet we’re starting at a total of 45, which is the lowest O/U during this span. The Bills have seen the ‘under’ go 5-0 this season while the Patriots have leaned to the ‘over’ (3-2). A lot of bettors are believers in Tom Brady and it’s hard to bet against him (I’ve been guilty too) but this Buffalo defense is legit. The unit is ranked fourth in points (17.8), eighth in yards allowed (324.8) and they’re tired for first in sacks (17). Winner takes over first place in the AFC East and I’m expecting a tightly contested game.

San Diego at Oakland: The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four encounters. This number opened 42 ½ and has been pushed up to 43 ½ points at most shops. The Raiders are off the bye and they do have a new coach so you might want to watch and learn more about this team.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: (See Below)

San Francisco at St. Louis: (See Below)

Under the Lights

Through 17 primetime games this season, the ‘over’ has produced a 14-3 record (82%) and that includes the Colts-Texans winning ticket on Thursday. As mentioned last week, this number will balance out and I believe a pair of divisional battles should help the cause this weekend.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: I don’t plan on having a horse in this race but I’d be careful betting the ‘over’ in this game. The number opened 51 and was dropped to 50 at some shops. I would’ve expected a higher total just based on pace as the Eagles (68.2) and Giants (67.8) are ranked in fifth and sixth in plays per game. Plus, the Giants offense is getting rave reviews the last three weeks (105 points), deservingly too. However, even though the Eagles have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 this season, the offense has scored two touchdowns the last two weeks while the defense and special teams have accounted for five touchdowns. One thing people aren’t talking about is New York’s defense, which has given up 17, 14 and 20 points the last three weeks. The ‘over/under’ is 2-2 in the last four meetings between the pair.

San Francisco at St. Louis: There aren’t many solid trends for this matchup with the total going 2-2 in the last four meetings. It’s hard to make a case for the ‘over’ in this spot just based on the inefficiencies of the 49ers offense (see above), which also has some key injuries (OT, TE). Still, it’s obvious that St. Louis has clearly dropped off defensively (29.8 PPG) through its first four games. To only have one sack in four game is embarrassing, especially after tallying 53 last season. What’s even funnier is that this group was considered to have great depth during training camp. You think Michael Sam is smiling?

Fearless Predictions

Two easy wins, two easy losers last week. After five weeks, the deficit sits at $60. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Chicago-Atlanta 54
Best Under: Pittsburgh-Cleveland 47
Best Team Total: Over Chicago 25.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 45 Chicago-Atlanta
Over 38 Seattle-Dallas
Under 52.5 Detroit-Minnesota

Sunday's Top Action

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-2) at BUFFALO BILLS (3-2)
Line & Total: New England -3, Total: 45
Opening Line & Total: New England -3, Total: 45

The Patriots hit the road on Sunday when they travel to face the Bills with first place in the AFC East on the line.
New England responded to its Week 4 blowout loss in K.C. with a 43-17 crushing of undefeated Cincinnati last Sunday. Buffalo stopped a two-game losing skid by defeating the Lions 17-14 behind QB Kyle Orton’s 308 passing yards in his season debut as the Bills starter.

The Patriots are plenty familiar with QB Tom Brady, who is 22-2 SU (14-9-1 ATS) with 54 TD and 19 INT in his career versus Buffalo. New England has won five straight meetings (3-2 ATS) between these division foes, and has enjoyed its visits to upstate New York, winning nine of the past 10 trips (7-2-1 ATS) to Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Patriots are 24-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in their previous game since 1992. The Bills, however, are 13-4 ATS after playing their previous game on the road over the past three seasons.

The Patriots are also just 1-8 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the past two years. Two key New England defenders -- LB Dont’a Hightower (knee) and S Devin McCourty (ribs) -- are questionable for this matchup, but CB Darrelle Revis (hamstring) has been upgraded to probable. For Buffalo, LB Nigel Bradham (knee) and CB Ron Brooks (neck) are both questionable, but RB Fred Jackson (ankle) and DT Kyle Williams (knee) have both been upgraded to probable.

After forcing only one turnover in the previous two games, the Patriots recorded three takeaways in the blowout win over the Bengals. CB Darrelle Revis was able to completely lock down top WR A.J. Green until Revis left the game with a hamstring injury, but his probable tag shows that Revis will play on Sunday, and will see plenty of time covering Sammy Watkins. This is one of the top passing defenses in the NFL, allowing just 196.6 yards per game through the air (3rd in NFL), and hope to make life on Kyle Orton extremely difficult. New England also looked like the Patriots of old on offense, with QB Tom Brady (1,083 pass yards, 6 TD, 2 INT) often lining up TE Tim Wright (9 rec, 120 yards, 1 TD) in two-tight-end packages with TE Rob Gronkowski (19 rec, 247 yards, 4 TD).

Wright delivered in the game with five catches for 85 yards and a touchdown, while Gronkowski was even better with six catches for 100 yards and a score. The Patriots also rushed for 220 yards on 4.8 YPC against a Bengals run defense that had allowed only 112.3 rushing YPG in their first three contests. Brady has been dominant against the Bills in his career, and the momentum from last game should carry over. They’ll need to be equally as creative with their offensive weapons as they were a week ago.

The Bills surprised a lot of people with a road victory over the Lions last week, as QB Kyle Orton was excellent down the stretch, finishing with 308 passing yards with a touchdown and an interception. Orton led a clutch 9-play, 74-yard drive to start the fourth quarter. It ended with a 2-yard touchdown pass and a two-point conversion to tie the game at 14.

Orton is much better in the pocket than EJ Manuel is, and worked well with top WR Sammy Watkins (24 rec, 284 yards, 2 TD) who caught seven passes for 87 yards in the win. RB Fred Jackson (201 rush yards, 0 TD), who sprained his ankle in this game, rushed 10 times for 49 yards and caught seven passes for 58 yards. Jackson and Orton had good timing with one another, and if Jackson can play on Sunday, the Bills will give him plenty of touches against a Patriots defense that is much worse against the rush than it is the pass this season.

Defensively, the Bills will make the Patriots beat them through the air. They’re allowing just 71.0 rushing yards per game (2nd in NFL) and will likely dominate what is a pretty bad offensive line for New England.

DALLAS COWBOYS (4-1) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-1)
Line & Total: Seattle -8.5, Total: 47
Opening Line & Total: Seattle -8.5, Total: 48

The red-hot Cowboys look to make a big statement with a road win over the Seahawks on Sunday.

Dallas has been one of the surprises of the season, recording its fourth straight victory last week (3-1 ATS) with a 20-17 overtime win over the Texans. The Seahawks have won two straight games after its lone loss of the season, and will now be faced with the difficult task of stopping current NFL rushing leader RB DeMarco Murray (670 rushing yards). The Dallas defense, on the other hand, faces its biggest test of the season against a Seahawks offense that moves the ball efficiently and rarely turns it over.

The last time these teams met was in 2012, when Seattle won 27-7 at home as three-point ‘dogs. The Seahawks are 4-1 SU and 2-2-1 ATS at home versus Dallas since 2001. Seattle is also 11-1 ATS versus teams that average 7+ passing yards per attempt over the past three years and 12-4 ATS against conference opponents in the past two years. The Cowboys, however, are 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards since 1992.

Dallas could be without LBs Bruce Carter (quad) and Rolando McClain (groin), who are both questionable. Seattle is in pretty good shape, but TE Zach Miller (ankle) is out indefinitely, CB Tharold Simon (knee) is questionable and C Max Unger (foot) is probable for this matchup.

Dallas is off to an excellent start and most of that is due to the excellent running of RB DeMarco Murray (670 rush yards, 5.2 YPC, 5 TD). Murray has now rushed for 100 or more yards in every single game this season, but will have a tougher time on Sunday as he faces one of the best defensive teams in football. But the Cowboys will reportedly start lessening Murray's workload, as he leads the NFL in both carries (130) and fumbles (four) this season. That means QB Tony Romo (1,260 pass yards, 9 TD, 5 INT) will get to throw the ball more and more. He started off the season rocky with two touchdowns and three interceptions in his first two games, but since then he’s improved, throwing seven touchdowns and just two picks over the past three contests. He’ll need to make quick, high-percentage throws against a ball-hawking Seahawks’ secondary.

WR Dez Bryant (32 rec, 376 yards, 4 TD) has now caught a touchdown in all four consecutive wins. He’ll be a player to watch, as he’ll likely see some time against Seattle's shutdown CB Richard Sherman. The Cowboys defense is far from elite, but they’re much improved from last year when they allowed an NFL-worst 415 total YPG. Dallas is allowing 247.8 yards per game through the air (18th in NFL) and 122.0 on the ground (20th in NFL). They will need to key in on the run in order to stop Marshawn Lynch.

Seattle is now 4-1, and QB Russell Wilson (852 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT) had one of his best games as a pro in Monday's 27-17 win over the Redskins. Wilson was 18-of-24 for 201 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also rushed 11 times for 122 yards and a touchdown. Wilson was unstoppable in that game, throwing all over the Redskins and shredding them with his feet if he couldn’t find any open receivers. He’ll now face a secondary that is prone to making mistakes, so he should be in for yet another big day.

This offensive attack still relies on RB Marshawn Lynch (306 rush yards, 3 TD) though. Lynch is a workhorse and he’ll have every opportunity to run against Dallas. If he’s running effectively, it’s that much easier for Wilson to do his thing. The Seahawks defense now has to stop a powerful offense, but they should be up for the task.

Seattle is allowing just 62.3 rushing yards per game (1st in NFL), so if there’s a team in the league that can stop DeMarco Murray then it would be them. They are, however, allowing 255.5 yards per game through the air (22nd in NFL), and have forced only three turnovers all season, which is a far cry from the 39 takeaways they recorded last season.

Week 6 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Steelers at Browns (-1, 47) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 5 Recap:
-- Pittsburgh has alternated wins and losses in each of the first five games, coming off a 17-9 victory at winless Jacksonville as six-point favorites. The Steelers limited the Jaguars to three field goals, while the pointspread cover came from a fourth quarter interception return for a touchdown, as Pittsburgh improved to 2-1 away from Heinz Field.
-- Cleveland dug themselves another big hole, but the Browns erased a 28-3 deficit to complete the largest road comeback in NFL history to stun the Titans, 29-28. The Browns blanked Tennessee in the second half, 16-0, while Brian Hoyer connected with Travis Benjamin on a pair of fourth quarter touchdown strikes.

Previous meeting: This is the first rematch of the young NFL season, as the Steelers built a 27-3 halftime advantage over the Browns in Week 1. However, the new “Cardiac Kids” rallied back to tie Pittsburgh at 27-27 early in the fourth quarter, but the Steelers kicked the game-winning field goal in the final seconds to win 30-27 as 5 ½-point favorites. Pittsburgh has owned Cleveland since 2004, grabbing 19 of the past 21 meetings.

What to watch for: The Browns own a perfect 4-0 mark to the ‘over’ this season, while all four of their games have been decided by three points or less. The Steelers covered five of six games last season against AFC North foes, but have failed to cash in both division contests in 2014.

Lions at Vikings (-2, 43 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 5 Recap:
-- Detroit suffered a devastating loss last week at home to Buffalo, blowing a 14-0 lead to the Bills in a 17-14 defeat as 4 ½-point favorites. The defeat snapped a two-game winning streak for the Lions, while they lost their first game at Ford Field in three tries this season. Star receiver Calvin Johnson exited the game with only one catch and a sprained ankle and is doubtful for Sunday’s game at Minnesota.
-- The Vikings were blown out from the opening kickoff at Green Bay, falling to the Packers, 42-10. Christian Ponder took over for the injured Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, as Ponder threw a pair of interceptions while digging the Vikings into a 28-0 hole at the half. In three losses this season, Minnesota has put up a total of 26 points.

Previous meeting: The home team won each matchup last season, as the Vikings edged the Lions in the season finale, 14-13 at the Metrodome as 2 ½-point underdogs. The Lions have lost four of the past five visits to Minnesota, but this will be their first outdoor matchup at TCF Bank Stadium.

What to watch for: Minnesota is listed as a home favorite for the first time this season, as the Vikings own a 3-8-1 ATS record since 2011 in this role. The Lions have lost nine of their last 13 games away from Ford Field, but have compiled a 5-2 SU/ATS record in their past seven contests against division opponents.

Packers (-3, 49) at Dolphins – 1:00 PM EST

Week 5 Recap:
-- Green Bay ripped apart Minnesota last Thursday night, 42-10 to easily cash as 8 ½-point home favorites. The Packers have scored 70 points the last two games after getting held to seven points at Detroit in Week 3. Aaron Rodgers tossed three touchdown passes and took the foot off the pedal by throwing for just 156 yards in the win over the Vikings.
-- The Dolphins were off in Week 5, but dominated the Raiders in London two weeks ago, 38-14 to cover as four-point favorites and even their record at 2-2. Miami created four turnovers, while scoring the most points in a game since back in 2009 against Buffalo.

Previous meeting: Miami knocked off Green Bay in overtime at Lambeau Field, 23-20 in 2010 as three-point road underdogs. The Packers tied the game late in regulation with a Rodgers touchdown run, but the Dolphins kicked the winning field goal in overtime to win on the road in this series for the first time since 1994.

What to watch for: The Dolphins have compiled a terrific 7-1 ATS record as a home underdog under Joe Philbin, facing the Packers for the first time since working with them as an assistant coach from 2003-2011. Green Bay has thrived in the role of a road favorite since the start of last season, posting a 4-1 SU/ATS mark, including a Week 4 blowout of Chicago.

Panthers at Bengals (-6 ½, 43 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 5 Recap:
-- Carolina bounced back from a pair of lousy performances against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, as the Panthers erased a 21-7 deficit to stun the Bears, 31-24 as 1 ½-point home favorites. The Panthers took advantage of four turnovers, while limiting Chicago to just three points in the second half.
-- The Bengals suffered their first loss of the season, a 43-17 beatdown at the hands of the Patriots. Cincinnati fell behind 14-0 out of the gate and played behind the entire night, while falling to 1-5 ATS in the past six opportunities as a road favorite.

Previous meeting: Cincinnati cruised past Carolina in September 2010 by a 20-7 count as three-point road favorites. The Panthers finished that season at 2-14, as Carolina gained just 267 yards to suffer its third straight loss to begin that campaign. Carolina is making its first visit to Cincinnati since losing to the Bengals, 17-14 in 2006.

What to watch for: The Panthers have fared well when receiving points on the road, cashing in eight of the past 10 chances in this role since 2012. Carolina has lost six straight games to AFC North foes, but four of those losses did occur in the dreadful season of 2010. The Bengals will likely be without top receiver A.J. Green due to a toe injury, but they are back in their comfort zone at home, where Cincinnati has won 11 straight regular season contests at Paul Brown Stadium (11-0 ATS).

Bears at Falcons (-3, 54 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 5 Recap:
-- Chicago squandered a two-touchdown advantage in a 31-24 loss at Carolina, the second straight loss for the Bears since starting the season at 2-1. The Bears are winless at home, but have won two of three games away from Soldier Field, while scoring at least 24 points in all three road contests (3-0 to ‘over’).
-- The Falcons return home following consecutive road losses to the Vikings and Giants, while blowing a 20-10 lead in last Sunday’s 30-20 setback at New York. Atlanta fell to 0-3 away from the Georgia Dome, while giving up 71 points in the past two weeks.

Previous meeting: The Bears crushed the Falcons to kick off the 2011 season, 30-12 as one-point home underdogs. The home team has won each of the past four matchups since 2005, while each of the past two contests in Atlanta have finished ‘under’ the total.

What to watch for: The Falcons put up 93 points in their first two home victories over the Saints and Buccaneers. This is the lone home game in a five-week stretch for Atlanta, who doesn’t return to the Georgia Dome until November 23 against Cleveland. The Bears have covered just four of their 12 underdog opportunities under Marc Trestman, while going 2-2 ATS this season in that role.