Dr. Bob
Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
****West Virginia (-3 ½) 47 TEXAS TECH 30
Sat Oct-11-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 143 Over/Under 73.5
One positive about West Virginia not covering for me last week against Kansas is that the line on this game was lower than it should have been. West Virginia only beat the Jayhawks 33-14 as a 26 point favorite but the Mountaineers should have won by more than 35 points based on their dominating 557 yards to 176 yards advantage in that game but being -3 in turnovers kept them from covering. West Virginia should move the ball just as well this week and will mostly likely put a lot more points on the board with those yards. Excluding their 54-0 win over Towson, the Mountaineers have averaged 544 yards at 6.5 yards per play while facing a better than average schedule of FBS defenses that include Alabama, Maryland, and Oklahoma. Overall, West Virginia has put up those big offensive numbers against 4 defensive units that are 0.4 yppl better than average and today they’re facing a Texas Tech defense that is 0.3 yppl worse than average (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense). The Mountaineers will have a lot of possessions in what should be a high paced game with both teams running no huddle offenses and my model projects 6.8 yards per play and 641 total yards for West Virginia in this game, which should get them at least 45 points.
Texas Tech is going to have a lot of possessions too and the Red Raiders have a bit of an advantage with an attack that has been 0.7 yppl better than average overall (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl) going up against a West Virginia stop unit that’s been 0.4 yppl better than average (5.9 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would average 6.3 yppl against an average defense). The matchup is favorable to West Virginia, who has been susceptible to good running teams (allowed 591 yards at 6.3 yards per running play to Alabama and Oklahoma) but the Mounties are very good defending the pass, yielding only 54% completions for the season and limiting their 4 FBS foes to 6.3 yards per pass play – well below the 7.5 yppp that those teams would average against an average defense. With Texas Tech thrown the ball about two-thirds of the time, West Virginia’s defense will be relatively better since the Red Raiders aren’t going to fully exploit their bad run defense while playing into their strength. My math model projects 6.3 yards per running play and just 5.6 yards per pass play for Texas Tech but the Red Raiders are still likely to throw the ball way more than they run it (the model projects 60% pass plays, which is less than their norm of 66.4% passes). My model projects 448 total yards at 5.9 yppl for Texas Tech, which projects to around 30 points.
Texas Tech is a mediocre team at best and the Red Raiders’ only two wins were by just 7 points over Central Arkansas (as a 34 point favorite) and by only 4 points as a 21 point favorite against UTEP and the Red Raiders have lost by an average margin of 21 points to good teams Arkansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State and West Virginia is better than all 3 of those teams, which isn’t obvious because the Mountaineers have 2 losses. However, those two losses were competitive losses to elite teams Alabama and Oklahoma and the Mountaineers have outgained their 4 FBS opponents 544 yards to 418 yards per game despite facing 4 teams with an average rating that is 8.5 points tougher than average. In addition to the nearly 200 yards of projected yardage advantage the Mountaineers are likely to be positive in turnovers given that Clint Trickett has thrown just 4 interceptions in 5 games while turnover prone Davis Webb of Texas Tech has thrown10 interceptions in 5 games this season and has a 3.2% career interception percentage, which is a lot given how many passes the Red Raiders throw per game. I don’t see this game being competitive at all and I’ll take West Virginia in a 4-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less, for 3-Stars up to -7 and for 2-Stars if the line goes above 7 points.
***MINNESOTA (-3) 24 Northwestern 11
Sat Oct-11-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 116 Over/Under 42.0
Northwestern has rebounded from season opening home losses to Cal and Northern Illinois by posting 3 straight wins, including upsets at Penn State and against Wisconsin the last two weeks. However, the back to back upset wins set up the Wildcats in a very negative 24-90-3 ATS road letdown situation this week and Minnesota applies to a very good 102-38-3 ATS home momentum off a bye week angle. I would have played Minnesota in this game even without the support of the strong angles and I really considered making this game a 4-Star Best Bet since the record of games when the math model and the situations are both significantly on the same side has been very, very good over the years.
Northwestern was an underrated team after those first two losses but that is no longer the case after back-to-back upset wins. The Wildcats are basically an average team that is good defensively (5.0 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team) and bad offensively (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack). The problem for the Wildcats in this game is that they’re facing a Minnesota team that is actually a bit better defensively, rating at 0.8 yppl better than average (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl), but are much better than Northwestern on offense. Minnesota has been just average offensively with quarterback Mitch Leidner in the game (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl), but that’s 0.7 yppl better than the Northwestern offense and the Gophers’ defense has been a bit better too.
I don’t see either team having a lot of offensive success in this game but Minnesota is projected to average 5.0 yards per run and 5.0 yards per pass play, so the Gophers won’t be completely shut down. Northwestern, meanwhile, is projected to average less than 4 yards per run and per pass and Minnesota has dominated sub-par offensive teams – holding Eastern Illinois, San Jose State and Michigan (with Morris at QB) to an average of just 13.7 points on 286 yards and 4.1 yards per play. My math model gives Minnesota a 58.5% chance of covering at -3 points (based on the historical performance of my model) and the positive situation enhances that percentage. I’ll take Minnesota in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 or less, for 2-Stars up to -6 ½ and for 1-Star at -7. I also lean towards the Under.
**Mississippi (+3) 34 TEXAS A&M 28
Sat Oct-11-2014 at 06:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 187 Over/Under 63.0
Mississippi just knocked off Alabama and while you might expect some sort of letdown following that big win there is no evidence of that being the case. None of my general letdown angles applied and I looked up how teams perform the week after winning as an underdog to stay unbeaten with at least a 5-0 record and those teams are 45-27 ATS against conference foes that also played the previous week, including 19-7 ATS since 2008. I also looked up how teams perform after beating Alabama and found that teams that beat the Crimson Tide are 13-6 ATS in their next game, including 11-2 ATS if not favored by 17 points or more. So, there is no reason to expect a letdown from the Rebels in this game and there is no doubt based on my numbers that they are better than Texas A&M.
Mississippi has the nation’s 2nd best defense, allowing just 10.2 points and 4.1 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Today the Rebels will be taking on my 2nd rated offense, as A&M has averaged 7.5 yppl with QB Kenny Hill in the game while facing teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack. That’s a pretty even matchup and Ole’ Miss just held Alabama, my #4 rated offense, to a modest 17 points and 5.3 yppl. Texas A&M, meanwhile, was just limited to a mediocre 5.7 yppl by Mississippi State, the first better than average defense that they’ve faced. Now they face a much better defense. My model projects 415 yards at 5.5 yppl for Texas A&M in this game but it will be lower than that if they play at the level they played last week against the Bulldogs.
While the battle between the Aggies’ offense and the Rebels’ defense is a wash, the battle between the Ole’ Miss offense and the A&M defense is significantly in favor of the Rebels. Mississippi has averaged 6.5 yards per play with quarterback Bo Wallace on the field this season and have done so against teams that would combine to allow just 5.4 yppl to an average team. I don’t see that attack having much trouble moving the ball at their normal rate given that the Aggies’ defense has been just average through their first 5 games, allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average offensive team. Texas A&M has faced three good offensive teams in South Carolina, Arkansas and Mississippi State last week and the Aggies allowed an average of 35 points on 476 yards at 6.8 yppl in those 3 games. My math model projects 507 yards at 6.5 yppl for Ole’ Miss in this game.
Mississippi should be favored by 6 points in this game based on how each team has played so far this season and I’m happy to take a few points with the Rebels here. Last week’s win over Alabama was no fluke and the Rebels are a legitimate National Championship contender while I rate Texas A&M as the 14th best team in the nation. I’ll take Mississippi in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 1-Star at pick or -1.
*Alabama (-9 ½) 38 ARKANSAS 22
Sat Oct-11-2014 at 03:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 159 Over/Under 54.5
In past years teams with National Championship expectations would often suffer what I call the “bubble is burst” letdown the next week but I don’t see that being the case with a 4 team playoff this year since 1 loss does not completely ruin a good team’s chances of being involved, especially in the SEC, where even 2 losses could get a team in the 4 team playoff. I expect Alabama to rebound this week against a good Arkansas team that has too many holes on defense to contain Alabama’s potent offense. Obviously, Alabama’s offense was held in check last week in a 17-23 loss at Ole’ Miss but the Rebels have my 2nd rated defense in the nation and averaging 5.3 yards per play against that unit on the road is still 1.6 yppl better than what an average team would gain in Oxford. Alabama’s offense has been 1.8 yppl better than average for the season (7.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack) and an even better +2.1 yppl with starting quarterback Blake Sims in the game. However, I do rate the Bama offense at +1.8 yppl better than average for this game after adjusting for the injury to RB Kenyan Drake. Drake’s 5.1 ypr on 22 runs is not going to be missed but he caught 5 of 6 passes thrown to him for a total of 159 yards and two touchdowns and taking out those numbers lowers the Tide offensive rating by 0.3 yppl.
While Bama’s offense was kept in check last week by an equally good Mississippi defense the Tide have averaged 42 points on 595 yards at 7.6 yppl against the other 4 teams they’ve played (West Virginia, FAU, S. Miss, and Florida), who would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Arkansas, meanwhile, would allow 5.7 yppl at home to an average offensive team so the 566 yards at 7.6 yppl that my model forecasts for Alabama in this game (after adjusting for Drake being out) is certainly in line with what the Tide has done to a collection of similarly rated defenses. That projection could be an underestimation given that Arkansas has faced two elite offensive teams in Auburn and Texas A&M and allowed 8.5 yppl to Auburn and 7.7 yppl to A&M. I have Alabama’s compensated offense rated 4th while Auburn is rated 6th and A&M is rated 2nd, so I see no reason why Arkansas can be expected to stop Alabama after giving up an average of 40 points and 8.1 yppl to Auburn and Texas A&M.
The line and total on this game indicate that the odds makers expect Arkansas to score about 22 or 23 points. I think that will also be the case, as my model 21.5 points for a Razorbacks’ offense that is 0.7 yppl better than average (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) going up against an Alabama defense that has been 0.9 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl). In recent seasons Alabama has performed much better against pro style offenses than they have against teams that run a spread offense so I can see Bama’s defense playing better than expected in this game. I certainly won’t assume that, however, and my model projects 302 yards at 5.6 yppl for Arkansas.
Overall the math model shows solid line value in favor of Alabama and the Tide apply to a 23-3 ATS game 6 situation that plays on teams that started the season with 4 wins and are coming off their first loss of the season. My model isn’t as good historically playing on double-digit road favorites so I’m going to be cautious and set a tight line constraint here at 10 points. I’ll take Alabama in a 1-Star Best Bet at -10 point or less
