Service Plays Monday 10/13/14

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 8, 2014

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Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 8, 2014

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Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 12, 2014

Mike O'Connor
(277) San Francisco -3 (-130)

The Rams defense has really missed defensive end Chris Long as so far this season as St. Louis has only 1 sack. With Long out, opposing offenses are focusing on containing Robert Quinn and others haven’t been able to step up. While the Rams pass defense looks great in allowing a league low 190 yards per game, they have actually given up 7.1 yps against teams that gain 6.2 yps on average. In addition, teams simply haven’t thrown the ball much against the Rams. In fact, the Rams have the fewest pass attempts against in the league mainly because they haven’t been able to stop the run. That makes for a difficult match-up in this game against a 49es offense that can pound the ball but also has the ability to stretch the field with a number of playmakers in the receiver and tight end groups.

The 49ers qualify in 664-495-40 and 215-103-4 situations while the Rams do qualify in a couple of weaker situations. My adjusted points model favors San Francisco by about 8 points in this game and with the match-up advantages favoring the superior team, who should also be motivated playing in primetime in a divisional game, I’ll take the 49ers -3 -130 for 2-Stars up to -4.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 12, 2014

Tiger

*NFL (278) ST. LOUIS +3.5-120

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 12, 2014

gilztips

• [277] 49ers -3 (-125) = [2U]

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 12, 2014

Fat Jack

#278 St louis OVER 43

cracy · Oct 13, 2014

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MNF REPORT
MONDAY OCTOBER, 13th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________

***** National Football League Information - Week #6 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
______________________________________________________________

#277 SAN FRANCISCO @ #278 ST LOUIS
TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: 49ers -3, Total: 43.5

The San Francisco 49ers have not been fazed by the soap opera involving their head coach and will go for their third consecutive victory when they visit the Edward Jones Dome to take on the St. Louis Rams on Monday Night Football in an NFC West matchup. Rumors of dissension permeating the locker room prompted 49ers team owner Jed York to publicly defend coach Jim Harbaugh prior to last Sunday's 22-17 home victory over Kansas City (reports surfaced about how Harbaugh has lost the trust of his players and questioned whether he would be back next season). "I love Coach Harbaugh," quarterback Colin Kaepernick said. "I'd go to war with him any day of the week."

San Francisco coughed up second-half leads in back-to-back losses to Chicago and Arizona but rebounded with a pair of stellar defensive performances in home wins over Philadelphia and the Chiefs. A bye week did little to rectify the defensive issues of the Rams, who have surrendered 34 points in each of their three setbacks. The 49ers, winners of six straight on Monday night, posted a pair of double-digit victories over St. Louis last season after going 0-2-1 in their three previous matchups against the Rams.

•ABOUT THE 49ERS (3-2 SU, 3-2-0 ATS): Ageless Frank Gore became the oldest running back in team history with consecutive 100-yard games since 1960, but he knows there's room for improvement after San Francisco settled for five field goals by Phil Dawson in their Week #5 victory. "We have to get better," Gore said of the team's struggles in the red zone. "Watch the tape and clean up whatever it is. We just have to get better." Kaepernick has yet to throw for more than 248 yards this season but should be helped by the expected return of tight end Vernon Davis, who has missed two games with ankle and back injuries. San Francisco's defense ranks second in the league with an average of 284.8 total yards allowed and is among the top five in rushing (77.2) and passing yards (205.6).

•ABOUT THE RAMS (1-3 SU, 1-3-0 ATS): St. Louis is coming off a pair of narrow losses, blowing a 21-point lead in a 34-31 setback to Dallas before a furious comeback came up short in last weekend's 34-28 loss to Philadelphia. "I think we’re a good football team," rookie quarterback Austin Davis said. "The record is what it is, but we’re a couple plays here and there from being where we want to be. We’ve got to stay the course. I think we’re headed in the right direction." Davis, who started the season as the third-string quarterback before injuries to Sam Bradford and Shaun Hill, threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns versus the Eagles. However, Davis could be without starting running back Zac Stacy, who missed Thursday's practice due to a calf injury sustained in last week's game.

•PREGAME NOTES: Kaepernick is 3-0 with a 126.8 passer rating on Monday Night Football.... San Francisco has an all-time best 45 victories on Monday night's, which will celebrate its 700th game since its debut in 1970.... Rams wide-receiver Brian Quick had three touchdown catches in the past two weeks and leads the team with 21 receptions.... The 49ers are third in the NFL with 145.0 rushing yards per game with Gore fifth after gaining 226 of his 365 yards in the last two contests. Gore ran for a season-high 153 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries in a 35-11 win September 26th, 2013 at St. Louis.... With three touchdowns in two contests, Brian Quick has become a favorite target of Davis, totaling 21 receptions for 322 yards this season. Quick scored a TD in a 23-13 loss at San Francisco on December 1st.

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•KEY STATS
--SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 32.4, OPPONENT 18.0.

--SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 29.3, OPPONENT 15.0.

--SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 24.4, OPPONENT 15.3.

--SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 22.0, OPPONENT 18.3.

SAN FRANCISCO is 18-35 against the 1rst half line (-20.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 9.9, OPPONENT 14.9.

--SAN FRANCISCO is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 15.8, OPPONENT 5.6.

--SAN FRANCISCO is 12-3 against the 1rst half line (+8.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 13.7, OPPONENT 6.8.

--ST LOUIS is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 31.4, OPPONENT 18.6.

--ST LOUIS is 3-14 against the 1rst half line (-12.4 Units) in home games after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 13.0, OPPONENT 14.7.

--ST LOUIS is 16-4 against the 1rst half line (+11.6 Units) after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 18.8, OPPONENT 10.1.

--ST LOUIS is 27-12 OVER (+13.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better since 1992.
The average score was ST LOUIS 9.4, OPPONENT 16.2.

--ST LOUIS is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 15.6, OPPONENT 9.5.

--ST LOUIS is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 18.3, OPPONENT 9.6.

•COACHING TRENDS
--JIM HARBAUGH is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in October games as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 27.9, OPPONENT 12.3.

--JIM HARBAUGH is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 28.5, OPPONENT 17.0.

--JIM HARBAUGH is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 27.5, OPPONENT 20.1.

--JIM HARBAUGH is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 27.5, OPPONENT 11.4.

--JIM HARBAUGH is 13-1 against the 1rst half line (+11.9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 13.1, OPPONENT 5.9.

--JIM HARBAUGH is 11-2 against the 1rst half line (+8.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 15.9, OPPONENT 5.0.

--JEFF FISHER is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) in home games after 2 straight games with 40 or more pass attempts in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FISHER 26.9, OPPONENT 25.1.

--JEFF FISHER is 24-6 against the 1rst half line (+17.4 Units) as a home underdog of 1.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FISHER 12.9, OPPONENT 9.9.

--JEFF FISHER is 14-2 against the 1rst half line (+11.8 Units) after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FISHER 15.3, OPPONENT 8.4.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN FRANCISCO is 27-15 against the spread versus ST LOUIS since 1992.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 29-14 straight up against ST LOUIS since 1992.
--22 of 44 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--SAN FRANCISCO is 27-17 versus the first half line when playing against ST LOUIS since 1992.
--21 of 41 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--SF is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 Monday games.
--SF is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in October.
--Under is 4-1 in SF last 5 versus the NFC West.

--STL is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week #6.
--STL is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus the NFC West.
--Over is 6-1 in STL last 7 games in October.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 50 times, while the favorite covered the spread 32 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 48 times, while the underdog won straight up 34 times. 38 games went under the total, while 37 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 71 times, while the underdog covered first half line 62 times. *No EDGE. 84 games went over first half total, while 76 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ST LOUIS) - an average rushing team (95-125 RY/game) against a good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game), after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games.
(45-19 since 1983.) (70.3%, +24.1 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (52-15)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.4
The average score in these games was: Team 30.3, Opponent 20.5 (Average point differential = +9.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 29 (43.3% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-11).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (22-12).
_________________________________________________

Typhoon · Oct 13, 2014

Root
N.L. Rams

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 13, 2014

CFL Betting Notes - Week 16
By David Schwab

The plot continues to thicken in this season’s race to the CFL Grey Cup Playoffs with eight of the nine teams still very much in contention for one of the six spots.

Last week in CFL action, Ottawa got things started by stunning Winnipeg 42-20 as a 3 ½-point home underdog. The total easily went OVER the 44 ½-point closing line. Calgary padded its lead in the West Division race with a 31-24 victory against Saskatchewan as a six-point road favorite in last Friday’s other game. The total went OVER the 46-point line in that contest.

Monday, Oct. 13

Saskatchewan (9-5 SU, 6-8 ATS) at Montreal (5-8 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Point-spread: Montreal -3 ½
Total: 47 ½

Game Overview

There is little doubt that Saskatchewan is in serious trouble at quarterback with the loss of Darian Durant a few weeks back. Tino Sunseri continues to get the call as his replacement, but the result has been just one SU win in the last four games with a costly 0-4 record ATS. The defense also has to share some of the blame after allowing an average of 28.8 PPG during this four-game stretch.

Montreal went into last week’s bye with four SU wins in its last five games to remain just a game back in the East Division race. It also covered ATS in four of those games and the total stayed UNDER in three of the contests. The Alouettes’ offense has finally shown some signs of life with quarterback Jonathan Crompton at the helm to average 24 PPG during this recent five-game run.

Betting Trends

The Roughriders have failed to cover in their last five games against Montreal and they are 4-10 SU in the last 14 meetings. The total has stayed UNDER in their last five road games against the Alouettes.

Winnipeg (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS) at Edmonton (9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS)

Point-spread: Edmonton -7 ½
Total: 50 ½

Game Overview

The Blue Bombers have returned to the form that led to just three SU wins in 2013. They will bring a SU five-game losing streak into this matchup and they have failed to cover in their last four outings. They have averaged 13.3 PPG in their last three contests, while allowing 28 PPG on defense.

Edmonton is another team that has had its issues winning games lately with a SU 2-4 record in its last six tries, but the Eskimos have been friendly to bettors with a 4-0 mark ATS in their last four games. Mike Reilly was largely responsible for keeping last week’s game close with 272 yards passing and two scores while completing 75 percent of his 32 attempts.

Betting Trends

Winnipeg has posted a costly 1-5 record both SU and ATS in its last six games against the Eskimos and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five games that were played in Edmonton.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 13, 2014

CFL Week 16 Betting Preview and Trends
By Mike Pickett

Week 16 of the Canadian Football League season stretches from Friday to Monday this week, with the slate getting underway at the Rogers Centre in Toronto on Friday night as the Argonauts take on the Tiger-Cats in a battle for top spot in the East division.

Saskatchewan at Montreal

Last 10 Meetings: Montreal 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS | OU 3-7

The Montreal Alouettes have covered the posted spread in each of their last five games against the Saskatchewan Roughriders as those teams hit the gridiron together on Monday afternoon. The Roughriders topped the Alouettes 16-11 in their first meeting of the season back on August 16 but failed to cover the 13-point spread at home in that contest. The UNDER is 5-1 in their last six matchups.

Winnipeg at Edmonton

Last 10 Meetings: Edmonton 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS | OU 4-6

The Edmonton Eskimos are 3-0 both SU and ATS in their last three games against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers as the Western clubs meet for the second time this season on Monday afternoon. Edmonton topped Winnipeg 26-3 as a 1.5-point road underdog in the first meeting of the season between the teams on July 17, in an UNDER result for totals bettors on the CFL odds at the sportsbooks.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 13, 2014

StatFox Super Situations

CFL | WINNIPEG at EDMONTON
Play On - Underdogs or pick (WINNIPEG) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team in the second half of the season
39-11 since 1997. ( 78.0% | 26.9 units )

CFL | WINNIPEG at EDMONTON
Play On - Underdogs vs. the money line (WINNIPEG) versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a favorite
64-54 since 1997. ( 54.2% | 0.0 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 0.0 units )

CFL | WINNIPEG at EDMONTON
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (WINNIPEG) off a road loss, team with a losing record in the second half of the season
29-7 over the last 5 seasons. ( 80.6% | 21.3 units )
4-1 this year. ( 80.0% | 2.9 units )

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 13, 2014

Tech Trends - Week 6
By Bruce Marshall

Monday, Oct. 13

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SAN FRANCISCO at ST. LOUIS...Niners 7-1 as road chalk since LY, and Harbaugh 19-9-1 vs. line away from home since 2011. Fisher 0-2 vs. line at home TY, also "over' 7-4 last 11 at Edward Jones Dome. 49ers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 13, 2014

NFL

Week 6

49ers (3-2) @ Rams (1-3)—Home team is honoring ’99 Super Bowl champs tonite, current Rams are 4-13-1 in last 18 games vs their rival, losing 35-11/23-13 in two meetings LY, when backup QB Clemens was playing. This year’s backup QB Davis has proven to be more capable starter; Rams scored seven TDs on 22 drives in losing last two games, when they led Dallas 21-0 and finished on 21-0 run at Philly, but in between those two runs they were outscored 68-17—young Rams make too many mistakes. Thru four games, St Louis was penalized 305 yards, their opponents 105. 49ers split last four visits here; they’ve scored only two TDs, six FGs on last eight red zone drives, winning last two games by five points each, after losses to Bears, Cards.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 13, 2014

Monday Night Football: 49ers at Rams

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (+3, 43.5)

The San Francisco 49ers have not been fazed by the soap opera involving their head coach and will go for their third consecutive victory when they visit the St. Louis Rams on Monday night in an NFC West matchup. Rumors of dissension permeating the locker room prompted 49ers team owner Jed York to publicly defend coach Jim Harbaugh prior to last week's 22-17 home victory over Kansas City. "I love Coach Harbaugh," quarterback Colin Kaepernick said. "I'd go to war with him any day of the week."

San Francisco coughed up second-half leads in back-to-back losses to Chicago and Arizona but rebounded with a pair of stellar defensive performances in home wins over Philadelphia and the Chiefs. A bye week did little to rectify the defensive issues of the Rams, who have surrendered 34 points in each of their three setbacks. The 49ers, winners of six straight on Monday night, posted a pair of double-digit victories over St. Louis last season after going 0-2-1 in their three previous matchups against the Rams.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened as 3.5-point home dogs, but that is presently +3. The total has held at 43.5.

INJUR REPORT: 49ers - T Anthony Davis (Questionable, knee), TE Vernon Davis (Questionable, back), CB Tramaine Brock (Questionable, toe). Rams - LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar (Questionable, groin), WR Kenny Britt (Questionable, knee), CB Trumaine Johnson (Questionable, knee), RB Zac Stacy (Questionable, calf).

POWER RANKINGS: 49ers (-3.75) - Rams (+2.75) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -3.5

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "San Francisco travels to St. Louis on Monday night following two straight home wins. The 49ers have covered eight of last nine Monday night games. Denver on deck. St. Louis has back-to-back home games against San Francisco and Seattle before a three-game roadtrip. 0-6 ATS L6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards." Matt Fargo.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 1-4 O/U): Ageless Frank Gore became the oldest running back in team history with consecutive 100-yard games since 1960, but he knows there's room for improvement after San Francisco settled for five field goals by Phil Dawson in last week's win. "We have to get better," Gore said of the team's struggles in the red zone. "Watch the tape and clean up whatever it is. We just have to get better." Kaepernick has yet to throw for more than 248 yards this season but should be helped by the expected return of tight end Vernon Davis, who has missed two games with ankle and back injuries. San Francisco's defense ranks second in the league with an average of 284.8 total yards allowed and is among the top five in rushing (77.2) and passing yards (205.6).

ABOUT THE RAMS (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): St. Louis is coming off a pair of narrow losses, blowing a 21-point lead in a 34-31 setback to Dallas before a furious comeback came up short in last week's 34-28 loss to Philadelphia. "I think we’re a good football team," rookie quarterback Austin Davis said. "The record is what it is, but we’re a couple plays here and there from being where we want to be. We’ve got to stay the course. I think we’re headed in the right direction." Davis, who started the season as the third-string quarterback before injuries to Sam Bradford and Shaun Hill, threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns versus the Eagles. However, Davis could be without starting running back Zac Stacy, who missed Thursday's practice due to a calf injury sustained in last week's game.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Rams last four vs. NFC West.
* Under is 7-2 in Rams last nine games overall.

CONSENSUS: 75 percent of wagers are backing the 49ers.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 13, 2014

Rams causing headaches for their spread bettors
Stephen Campbell

The St. Louis Rams have been a poor spread play lately, covering in only one out of their last five games.

They'll try and buck that trend when they host their division rival San Francisco 49ers in Monday Night Football action.

The Rams are currently 3-point home dogs with a total of 43.5.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 13, 2014

Kaepernick shines on Monday stage
Andrew Avery

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick arguably plays his best football on the primetime stage on Monday Night Football, posting a straight up record of 3-0 and a QB rating of 126.8 in his young career.

Kaepernick has gone 2-1 against the spread in his three Monday starts and get's his first shot of the 2014 campaign versus the Rams in Week 6.

His only failure ATS was Week 16 last season. The 49ers were 14-point home favorites against the Atlanta Falcons and won 34-24, coming up just shy for their backers.

Oddsmakers opened the 49ers as 3.5-point road faves against the Rams, and that has moved to -3.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 13, 2014

MLB Preview: Orioles (96-66) at Royals (89-72)

Game: 3
Venue: Kauffman Stadium
Date: October 13, 2014 8:07 PM EDT

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) - Resilience and perseverance are two traits that have come to epitomize the Kansas City Royals, who've turned into a playoff force with their run of late-inning wins.

They're two qualities that the Baltimore Orioles had better embrace.

After taking the first two games of the AL Championship Series at the bandbox known as Camden Yards, the Royals return to spacious Kauffman Stadium needing two more wins to reach the World Series in their first playoff appearance since winning it all in 1985.

Game 3 is Monday night, with two more games on deck in Kansas City - the second only if needed. And make no mistake the Orioles are desperate to play all of them.

'You've got to win four games,' Baltimore manager Buck Showalter said. 'You've got to keep from losing three. And that's obviously oversimplifying it. But you look at teams that compete during the course of the season, they compete on the road, too.'

The Orioles were 46-35 on the road this season, a decent mark but by no means the same level of dominance that they exhibited at home. And now their power-hitting lineup has to try to punch balls over the outfield fence at one of the least homer-friendly ballparks in the game, a stadium that lends itself to the Royals' strong suits: pitching and defense.

The Orioles will also have to overcome a daunting bit of history. Since the best-of-seven format was adopted 29 years ago, none of the previous 11 teams that dropped the first two games of a league championship series at home rallied to reach the World Series.

'We're grown men. We're not little kids who need to sit in a circle and play `Duck, Duck, Goose,'' Orioles outfielder Adam Jones said, when asked whether there would be any special pep talks before the game. 'We're just going to approach it as we've approached every game all season, and do what we do best.'

Wei-Yin Chen starts for the Orioles against former Baltimore pitcher Jeremy Guthrie.

While the Orioles are trying to buck history, the Royals have been making some.

The same club that languished below .500 in late July has seemingly become invincible when the game is on the line. The Royals became the first team in major league history to win four playoff games in extra innings with their 8-6, 10-inning triumph in Game 1 on Friday night, and then added another chapter to their memorable postseason in Game 2 on Saturday.

After the Orioles kept rallying to tie the game, Alcides Escobar delivered a go-ahead double in the ninth inning that propelled Kansas City to a 6-4 victory.

'Over the past few years we've played a lot of close games,' Royals closer Greg Holland said. 'The reason we're here now is we've learned how to win those games. When you learn how to win those games, it kind of builds on itself and you know you can.'

The Royals have certainly embraced a flair for the dramatic.

Beginning with their rally from a four-run deficit in the eighth inning of their wild-card game against Oakland, and right through a pair of extra-inning wins over the Angels in the divisional round, the Royals have thrived when the game is in the balance.

It helps that they have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Holland have been just as dynamic in the playoffs as they were in the regular season. And considering that neither the Royals nor Orioles have had a starter go deep in a game yet, the play of both bullpens already has proven pivotal.

'We just want to get the ball to our bullpen with the lead,' Royals outfielder Jarrod Dyson said. 'If we can do that, we know we got it.'

Getting the ball to the bullpen will be the job of Guthrie. He'll be starting Monday night for the first time since Sept. 26, though he's thrown simulated games and bullpen sessions to keep sharp.

'I've never had this much time between starts aside from being on the DL,' Guthrie said, 'so I don't view it one way or another. I was able to throw a simulated game, which at least gave me the opportunity to go out there and face hitters.

The Orioles will counter with Chen, who pitched well in two games against the Royals earlier this season.

'It doesn't matter to me if we're ahead or behind,' the left-hander said through interpreter Louis Chao, when asked about the Orioles' two-game deficit. 'For me, my job is to go out and pitch a good game. It doesn't change whether it's 0-2 or 2-0. I just want to pitch a good game.'

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 13, 2014

O's producing high totals on grass
Stephen Campbell

Game 3 of the ALCS goes Monday, and after jumping out to a 2-0 lead, the Kansas City Royals will look to keep the momentum going as the series shifts to Missouri.

The Royals have now won six straight playoff games. Despite their recent struggles, the O's have had no problem producing high totals on grass surfaces, as the Over is 7-1 in Baltimore's last eight games on grass. Over bettors will hope that trend continues when the two teams face off at Kauffman Stadium - a natural surface.

Wei-Yen Chen will get the ball for Baltimore, while Jeremy Guthrie counters on the bump for K.C.

The Royals are currently -110 faves on the moneyline with a total of 7.5.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 13, 2014

Royals name Vargas as Game 4 starter
The Sports Xchange

Left-hander Jason Vargas will start Game 4 for the Kansas City Royals in Game 4 of the American League championship series on Tuesday.

It could be the series clincher as the Royals lead the best-of-seven series 2-0. Game 3 is Monday in Kansas City.

In one American League Division Series start, Vargas held the Los Angeles Angels to two runs over six innings in a 3-2 victory for the Royals.

Vargas, 31, went 11-10 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 187 innings in the regular season.

Baltimore has not named a starter for Game 4.

Left-hander Wei-Yin Chen will start Game 3 for the Orioles against Royals right-hander Jeremy Guthrie.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 13, 2014

Baseball Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals October 13, 07:00 EST

Down 0-2 in the ALCS heading into Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City this is clearly a “MUST WIN” for Baltimore as they send left-hander Wei-Yin Chen to the mound. Baltimore will be in good hands, O's were 2-0 with the hurler vs Royals this season, 5-3 on the road with the southpaw following a team loss the previous effort. Baltimore 11-4 on the road following a loss, Royals 0-2 vs Baltimore with X-Oriole Jeremy Guthrie on the mound, roll the dice with Baltimore.

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