[h=1]Best NFL underdog value in Week 6[/h][h=3]Why there is significant betting value on big underdogs in divisional matchups[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]PJ Walsh[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
Contrarian NFL betting includes many individual strategies that we can use to analyze value each week, including betting against the public, fading winning streaks, backing losing streaks and playing the league's least popular teams. In short, we like to say that we buy on bad news and sell on good.
Focusing specifically on the idea of buying on bad news, nothing puts a team in a more negative light than those coming off blowout losses. While most bettors are reluctant to wager on teams that were embarrassed in their most recent game, we see this as an opportunity to pinpoint contrarian betting value.
Using this theme, I unearthed an NFL betting system with a 55 percent ATS win rate (over a 373-game sample) that has identified a handful of solid bets for NFL Week 6.
Sometimes finding value can be as simple as using archived data to answer real-world questions. For example, I discovered this system after watching a handful of teams get crushed on a random Sunday and wondering how they performed historically in the following game. By answering this question, I found a system that has proved to be useful and one we often consider at SportsInsights.com.
To perform the analysis, I used Bet Labs' "previous game margin" and "favorite/dog" filters to isolate the performance of underdogs coming off blowout losses. While the definition of a "blowout loss" is certainly arbitrary, I let the data do the talking and found a jump in ATS winning percentage when focusing on underdogs off losses of 20 points or more.
The table below organizes the results in more detail:<offer></offer>
[h=4]ATS record of NFL underdogs off loss, since 2003[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]PJ Walsh[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
Contrarian NFL betting includes many individual strategies that we can use to analyze value each week, including betting against the public, fading winning streaks, backing losing streaks and playing the league's least popular teams. In short, we like to say that we buy on bad news and sell on good.
Focusing specifically on the idea of buying on bad news, nothing puts a team in a more negative light than those coming off blowout losses. While most bettors are reluctant to wager on teams that were embarrassed in their most recent game, we see this as an opportunity to pinpoint contrarian betting value.
Using this theme, I unearthed an NFL betting system with a 55 percent ATS win rate (over a 373-game sample) that has identified a handful of solid bets for NFL Week 6.
Sometimes finding value can be as simple as using archived data to answer real-world questions. For example, I discovered this system after watching a handful of teams get crushed on a random Sunday and wondering how they performed historically in the following game. By answering this question, I found a system that has proved to be useful and one we often consider at SportsInsights.com.
To perform the analysis, I used Bet Labs' "previous game margin" and "favorite/dog" filters to isolate the performance of underdogs coming off blowout losses. While the definition of a "blowout loss" is certainly arbitrary, I let the data do the talking and found a jump in ATS winning percentage when focusing on underdogs off losses of 20 points or more.
The table below organizes the results in more detail:<offer></offer>
[h=4]ATS record of NFL underdogs off loss, since 2003[/h]
Teams | ATS Record | Units Won | ROI |
---|---|---|---|
All | 785-747 (51.2%) | -1.49 units | -0.1% |
Off loss of 20 or more points | 205-168 (55.0%) | +25.37 units | +6.8% |