[h=1]Best NFL underdog value in Week 6[/h][h=3]Why there is significant betting value on big underdogs in divisional matchups[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]PJ Walsh[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
Contrarian NFL betting includes many individual strategies that we can use to analyze value each week, including betting against the public, fading winning streaks, backing losing streaks and playing the league's least popular teams. In short, we like to say that we buy on bad news and sell on good.
Focusing specifically on the idea of buying on bad news, nothing puts a team in a more negative light than those coming off blowout losses. While most bettors are reluctant to wager on teams that were embarrassed in their most recent game, we see this as an opportunity to pinpoint contrarian betting value.
Using this theme, I unearthed an NFL betting system with a 55 percent ATS win rate (over a 373-game sample) that has identified a handful of solid bets for NFL Week 6.
Sometimes finding value can be as simple as using archived data to answer real-world questions. For example, I discovered this system after watching a handful of teams get crushed on a random Sunday and wondering how they performed historically in the following game. By answering this question, I found a system that has proved to be useful and one we often consider at SportsInsights.com.
To perform the analysis, I used Bet Labs' "previous game margin" and "favorite/dog" filters to isolate the performance of underdogs coming off blowout losses. While the definition of a "blowout loss" is certainly arbitrary, I let the data do the talking and found a jump in ATS winning percentage when focusing on underdogs off losses of 20 points or more.
The table below organizes the results in more detail:<offer></offer>
[h=4]ATS record of NFL underdogs off loss, since 2003[/h]
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Anticipating one-sided betting action, oddsmakers shade lines toward favorites in these matchups, forcing bettors to pay a premium to lay the points. Whenever lines move simply based on the perception of a team or teams by the betting public, we'll happily buy-back the value created by these moves by taking the underdog.
In the most one-sided game so far this week, Denver has received 83 percent of all spread bets against the Jets.
The betting action isn't all that surprising considering the Jets looked completely incompetent in last week's 31-0 loss to the Chargers while the Broncos' offense rolled through the previously undefeated Cardinals. Our Week 6 analysis combined with last week's results indicate that there is value playing the Jets. Therefore, we'll take New York and the points.
Oakland Raiders (+7) vs. San Diego Chargers
While San Diego has established itself as a potential Super Bowl contender, Oakland continues to be the same old Oakland. Eighty-two percent of bettors are already laying the points with the road favorite, and I expect to see little buy-back throughout the week, in terms of public betting percentages.
When the market gets flooded with lopsided betting action, we focus on the underdog in these matchups in an attempt to find contrarian value. While it's undoubtedly an ugly play, we'll lean on the results of our analysis and take the Raiders as a touchdown underdog to keep this game close at home.
Minnesota Vikings (TBD) vs. Detroit Lions
Note: Our Bet Labs software relies on archived lines from Pinnacle to provide both historical results and current week matches. At the time of publication, Pinnacle has not yet opened a line for this game as the status of Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is still unclear. However, a handful of offshore books have opened early lines as well as the Westgate in Las Vegas, which is offering the Vikings at plus-2, putting this game as a potential Week 6 system match.
Check ESPN Chalk's NFL Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines from Pinnacle regarding this game and to determine whether it ultimately fits as a Week 6 system match.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]PJ Walsh[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
Contrarian NFL betting includes many individual strategies that we can use to analyze value each week, including betting against the public, fading winning streaks, backing losing streaks and playing the league's least popular teams. In short, we like to say that we buy on bad news and sell on good.
Focusing specifically on the idea of buying on bad news, nothing puts a team in a more negative light than those coming off blowout losses. While most bettors are reluctant to wager on teams that were embarrassed in their most recent game, we see this as an opportunity to pinpoint contrarian betting value.
Using this theme, I unearthed an NFL betting system with a 55 percent ATS win rate (over a 373-game sample) that has identified a handful of solid bets for NFL Week 6.
Sometimes finding value can be as simple as using archived data to answer real-world questions. For example, I discovered this system after watching a handful of teams get crushed on a random Sunday and wondering how they performed historically in the following game. By answering this question, I found a system that has proved to be useful and one we often consider at SportsInsights.com.
To perform the analysis, I used Bet Labs' "previous game margin" and "favorite/dog" filters to isolate the performance of underdogs coming off blowout losses. While the definition of a "blowout loss" is certainly arbitrary, I let the data do the talking and found a jump in ATS winning percentage when focusing on underdogs off losses of 20 points or more.
The table below organizes the results in more detail:<offer></offer>
[h=4]ATS record of NFL underdogs off loss, since 2003[/h]
| Teams | ATS Record | Units Won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 785-747 (51.2%) | -1.49 units | -0.1% |
| Off loss of 20 or more points | 205-168 (55.0%) | +25.37 units | +6.8% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine ATS records. ** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $2,537 ($100 x 25.37 units) following the system. *** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from the sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment. |
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[h=3]Why does this work?[/h]Recreational football bettors often overreact to recent results, especially blowout losses. As our analysis indicates, when point differentials reach 20 or greater, public bettors label these losers as "bad" teams and avoid them the following week.Anticipating one-sided betting action, oddsmakers shade lines toward favorites in these matchups, forcing bettors to pay a premium to lay the points. Whenever lines move simply based on the perception of a team or teams by the betting public, we'll happily buy-back the value created by these moves by taking the underdog.
[h=3]Week 6 system matches[/h]New York Jets (+8) vs. Denver BroncosIn the most one-sided game so far this week, Denver has received 83 percent of all spread bets against the Jets.
The betting action isn't all that surprising considering the Jets looked completely incompetent in last week's 31-0 loss to the Chargers while the Broncos' offense rolled through the previously undefeated Cardinals. Our Week 6 analysis combined with last week's results indicate that there is value playing the Jets. Therefore, we'll take New York and the points.
Oakland Raiders (+7) vs. San Diego Chargers
While San Diego has established itself as a potential Super Bowl contender, Oakland continues to be the same old Oakland. Eighty-two percent of bettors are already laying the points with the road favorite, and I expect to see little buy-back throughout the week, in terms of public betting percentages.
When the market gets flooded with lopsided betting action, we focus on the underdog in these matchups in an attempt to find contrarian value. While it's undoubtedly an ugly play, we'll lean on the results of our analysis and take the Raiders as a touchdown underdog to keep this game close at home.
Minnesota Vikings (TBD) vs. Detroit Lions
Note: Our Bet Labs software relies on archived lines from Pinnacle to provide both historical results and current week matches. At the time of publication, Pinnacle has not yet opened a line for this game as the status of Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is still unclear. However, a handful of offshore books have opened early lines as well as the Westgate in Las Vegas, which is offering the Vikings at plus-2, putting this game as a potential Week 6 system match.
Check ESPN Chalk's NFL Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines from Pinnacle regarding this game and to determine whether it ultimately fits as a Week 6 system match.
