[h=1]How Vegas experts view IND-HOU[/h][h=3]Line analysis and ATS picks from handicappers on Thursday night's game[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Evan Abrams[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
When it comes to playing against AFC South foes, Andrew Luck has been even more dominant than he is otherwise. During his short career, he has gone 12-2 straight up and an amazing 11-2-1 against the spread. Against Houston, however, his personal stats have taken a hit. Luck's Colts are 3-1 SU and ATS, but his completion percentage is inches above 50 percent, with a Total QBR below 60.
With the sixth-best Total QBR in the NFL, the most touchdown passes, most passing yards and second-most completions, Luck has been the class of the league through five weeks this season. Even though the Texans have the big name on defense in J.J. Watt, the numbers simply do not support their dominance. They are 20th or worse in major defensive categories this season, including yards per play, yards per rush and disrupted dropbacks (sacks, passes defended, interceptions and batted balls).
In the past three seasons, Houston is 0-5 SU as a home underdog, while Luck takes care of business as a road favorite with a record of 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS during his career.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is currently backing the Colts at a clip of 77 percent at the line of Indianapolis minus-3.
Let's get some analysis on the line from Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, and an ATS pick on the game from four wiseguys:
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</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">[h=3]Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans[/h]Spread: Opened Indianapolis -2.5; now Indianapolis -3
Total: Opened 46; now 46
</center>Jay Kornegay says: <offer></offer>"The Colts opened up as a road favorite by 2.5 points over the Texans. On Monday, we had some early money show up on Indianapolis, and the line moved to minus-2.5 (minus-120), but it wasn't enough to push the number to minus-3. Later that day, we had a sufficient amount of cash to push us to minus-3 (even) and we've held at this number since.
"We believe the number will stay at minus-3, but we'll see many variations (split lines) leading up to kickoff. Since Luck is more popular than ever, there is a slight chance the public could push this to minus-3.5. The total opened up at 46, and hasn't moved."
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</center>[h=3]ATS picks[/h]Wunderdog says: "After a disastrous 2013 campaign, the Texans have started out at 3-2 this season thanks in large part to a healthy and productive Arian Foster. He's second in the league in rushing, and coming off three straight 100-plus-yard performances; he also scored two TDs last week. The problem for Foster and the Texans is that Luck is coming to town. Luck leads the NFL in passing -- he's thrown for more than 1,600 yards -- along with 14 touchdowns. The Colts are scoring 31.2 points per game. Against two other familiar division foes, the Colts have put up 85 points. In their past 10 games against teams with a winning record, Indy is 8-2 to the over. I think there will be enough scoring in this one; take the over."
ATS Pick: Over (46)
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</center>Maddux Sports says: "For five straight weeks, sharp money has come in against Indianapolis, and I expect that trend to continue for this one. Luck and the Colts continue to cover point spreads, which has inflated this line up, as my numbers make this game Indy minus-1. Houston is no juggernaut, but the spot looks good on a short week for the Texans to cover. Houston at plus-3 or better is the side I would take."
ATS Pick: Texans (+3)
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</center>Erin Rynning says: "The Texans continue to play a conservative style of football, attempting to hang around on the scoreboard with an opportunity to win in the end. Obviously, this correlates to their personnel, as they rely on the run game for as long as possible, and keep the game out of the hands of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Meanwhile, the Colts' defense is playing much better than expected this season: They've held their past three opponents to an average of 15.7 points. Look for a conservative divisional game that goes under the total."
ATS Pick: Under (46)
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</center>Dave Tuley says: "Houston was expected by many experts to bounce back from its 2-14 season and challenge Indianapolis for the AFC South title. This game is a key part of them taking the lead back in the division, and they get an added break with the Colts having to travel on this short week. I'm in agreement with our NFL Vegas Rankings that think this line should be closer to pick 'em with the Texans at home. Foster should have a big night against an Indy run defense that hasn't been tested in recent weeks, and the Houston defense should be able to corral Luck and keep him from putting up the big numbers like he has all season. The plus-3 isn't available everywhere, and I think it's worth shopping for, but I might just take the money line on the Texans to win straight up at around plus-130 (note: it was as high as plus-140 at the South Point as of Wednesday morning)."
ATS Pick: Texans (+3 spread or +130 money line)
[h=4]Evan Abrams[/h]ESPN Insider
Evan Abrams has been working in sports information and analytics for the past decade in New Jersey, New York, and Las Vegas. Born and raised in New York City, Abrams graduated from Indiana University.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Evan Abrams[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
When it comes to playing against AFC South foes, Andrew Luck has been even more dominant than he is otherwise. During his short career, he has gone 12-2 straight up and an amazing 11-2-1 against the spread. Against Houston, however, his personal stats have taken a hit. Luck's Colts are 3-1 SU and ATS, but his completion percentage is inches above 50 percent, with a Total QBR below 60.
With the sixth-best Total QBR in the NFL, the most touchdown passes, most passing yards and second-most completions, Luck has been the class of the league through five weeks this season. Even though the Texans have the big name on defense in J.J. Watt, the numbers simply do not support their dominance. They are 20th or worse in major defensive categories this season, including yards per play, yards per rush and disrupted dropbacks (sacks, passes defended, interceptions and batted balls).
In the past three seasons, Houston is 0-5 SU as a home underdog, while Luck takes care of business as a road favorite with a record of 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS during his career.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is currently backing the Colts at a clip of 77 percent at the line of Indianapolis minus-3.
Let's get some analysis on the line from Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, and an ATS pick on the game from four wiseguys:
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</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">[h=3]Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans[/h]Spread: Opened Indianapolis -2.5; now Indianapolis -3
Total: Opened 46; now 46
</center>Jay Kornegay says: <offer></offer>"The Colts opened up as a road favorite by 2.5 points over the Texans. On Monday, we had some early money show up on Indianapolis, and the line moved to minus-2.5 (minus-120), but it wasn't enough to push the number to minus-3. Later that day, we had a sufficient amount of cash to push us to minus-3 (even) and we've held at this number since.
"We believe the number will stay at minus-3, but we'll see many variations (split lines) leading up to kickoff. Since Luck is more popular than ever, there is a slight chance the public could push this to minus-3.5. The total opened up at 46, and hasn't moved."
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</center>[h=3]ATS picks[/h]Wunderdog says: "After a disastrous 2013 campaign, the Texans have started out at 3-2 this season thanks in large part to a healthy and productive Arian Foster. He's second in the league in rushing, and coming off three straight 100-plus-yard performances; he also scored two TDs last week. The problem for Foster and the Texans is that Luck is coming to town. Luck leads the NFL in passing -- he's thrown for more than 1,600 yards -- along with 14 touchdowns. The Colts are scoring 31.2 points per game. Against two other familiar division foes, the Colts have put up 85 points. In their past 10 games against teams with a winning record, Indy is 8-2 to the over. I think there will be enough scoring in this one; take the over."
ATS Pick: Over (46)
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</center>Maddux Sports says: "For five straight weeks, sharp money has come in against Indianapolis, and I expect that trend to continue for this one. Luck and the Colts continue to cover point spreads, which has inflated this line up, as my numbers make this game Indy minus-1. Houston is no juggernaut, but the spot looks good on a short week for the Texans to cover. Houston at plus-3 or better is the side I would take."
ATS Pick: Texans (+3)
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</center>Erin Rynning says: "The Texans continue to play a conservative style of football, attempting to hang around on the scoreboard with an opportunity to win in the end. Obviously, this correlates to their personnel, as they rely on the run game for as long as possible, and keep the game out of the hands of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Meanwhile, the Colts' defense is playing much better than expected this season: They've held their past three opponents to an average of 15.7 points. Look for a conservative divisional game that goes under the total."
ATS Pick: Under (46)
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</center>Dave Tuley says: "Houston was expected by many experts to bounce back from its 2-14 season and challenge Indianapolis for the AFC South title. This game is a key part of them taking the lead back in the division, and they get an added break with the Colts having to travel on this short week. I'm in agreement with our NFL Vegas Rankings that think this line should be closer to pick 'em with the Texans at home. Foster should have a big night against an Indy run defense that hasn't been tested in recent weeks, and the Houston defense should be able to corral Luck and keep him from putting up the big numbers like he has all season. The plus-3 isn't available everywhere, and I think it's worth shopping for, but I might just take the money line on the Texans to win straight up at around plus-130 (note: it was as high as plus-140 at the South Point as of Wednesday morning)."
ATS Pick: Texans (+3 spread or +130 money line)
[h=4]Evan Abrams[/h]ESPN Insider
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Evan Abrams has been working in sports information and analytics for the past decade in New Jersey, New York, and Las Vegas. Born and raised in New York City, Abrams graduated from Indiana University.
