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BALTIMORE (99 - 68) at KANSAS CITY (95 - 73) - 8:05 PM

WEI-YIN CHEN (L) vs. JEREMY GUTHRIE (R)

Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 95-73 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 20-7 (+11.9 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.
KANSAS CITY is 15-5 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
KANSAS CITY is 91-70 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 69-48 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 (+7.5 Units) against the money line in playoff games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 55-40 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
KANSAS CITY is 21-11 (+10.2 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
KANSAS CITY is 49-35 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KANSAS CITY is 22-15 (+8.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
GUTHRIE is 38-27 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GUTHRIE is 19-12 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
GUTHRIE is 39-29 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
GUTHRIE is 29-18 (+18.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
GUTHRIE is 17-11 (+10.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 100-68 (+37.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 48-35 (+23.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
BALTIMORE is 15-5 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday this season.
BALTIMORE is 39-21 (+21.0 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 89-61 (+31.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 73-38 (+40.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 77-49 (+32.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 43-25 (+20.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
BALTIMORE is 48-29 (+25.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BALTIMORE is 34-17 (+21.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
CHEN is 20-12 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHEN is 20-8 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CHEN is 18-9 (+10.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 6-3 (+2.8 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
4 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-1.1 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

WEI-YIN CHEN vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
CHEN is 1-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 4.17 and a WHIP of 1.418.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-1. (+3.9 units)

JEREMY GUTHRIE vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
GUTHRIE is 2-1 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 2.67 and a WHIP of 1.222.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-3. (-3.4 units)


BALTIMORE vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Baltimore is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games


StatFox Super Situations

BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (KANSAS CITY) with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities, good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season 96-72 over the last 5 seasons. ( 57.1% | 39.7 units ) 6-10 this year. ( 37.5% | -2.8 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY
BALTIMORE is 89-61 (+31.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.7)


Baltimore at Kansas City
Chen: 20-12 TSR in all games
Guthrie: KANSAS CITY 15-5 OVER after 4 or more consecutive wins

MLBlayoffs


Orioles - Royals

Chen is 0-2, 6.89 in his last three starts, 1-0, 5.40 in two playoff starts, 1-0, 2.19 in his two starts against the Royals this season.

Former Oriole Guthrie is making first postseason appearance after 11 years and 1,616 IP; he is 3-0, 1.33 in his last three starts, was 0-1, 3.60 in two starts vs Baltimore this year. Guthrie was an Oriole from 2007-11.

Orioles allowed 14 runs in losing first two series games; they've lost three of their last four road games.

Royals won seven games in row and 12 of last 14, with 11 of those 14 on road. KC won its last three home games.

Chen 20-12..........10-32 first inning
Guthrie 19-13......12-32 first inning

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic

Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals

Down 0-2 in the ALCS heading into Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City this is clearly a “MUST WIN” for Baltimore as they send left-hander Wei-Yin Chen to the mound. Baltimore will be in good hands, O's were 2-0 with the hurler vs Royals this season, 5-3 on the road with the southpaw following a team loss the previous effort. Baltimore 11-4 on the road following a loss, Royals 0-2 vs Baltimore with X-Oriole Jeremy Guthrie on the mound, roll the dice with Baltimore.

ALCS Betting Preview: Orioles at Royals


Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals (+102, 7.5)

The Kansas City Royals spent 28 years watching the postseason from home, and now that they’ve gotten back, they just can’t lose. The Royals go for their seventh straight win this postseason and a 3-0 lead in the American League Championship Series when they host the Baltimore Orioles in Game 3 on Monday. The Orioles have lost the battle of the bullpens in the first two games and will need to make some history in order to win the series.

No team ever has come back from a 2-0 deficit in the ALCS after losing the first two at home, a fact Baltimore has the talent to change. Adam Jones hit his first postseason homer in the Orioles’ 6-4 loss in Game 2 and insisted after the contest that the series was not over despite back-to-back late-inning meltdowns. If Baltimore hopes for a comeback, getting setup man Darren O’Day and closer Zach Britton on track would be one key, as the two have combined to allow four runs on four hits and three walks in the first two games.

LINE HISTORY: The Royals opened as slight -110 favorites, but the money has been coming in on the Orioles with the Kansas City moving all the way to +102. The total is set at 7.5.

INJURY REPORT: Royals - SP Yordano Ventura (day-to-day, shoulder).

WEATHER: It is expected to rain at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. The forecast is calling for a 100 percent chance of rain and a chance of thunderstorms. There will also be a strong 15 mile per hour wind blowing in from left field.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles LH Wei-Yin Chen (0-0, 12.27 ERA) vs. Royals RH Jeremy Guthrie (2014: 13-11, 4.13)

Chen was bailed out by the offense in Game 2 of the AL Division Series against Detroit after allowing five runs and seven hits in 3 2/3 innings. The Taiwan native surrendered two or fewer earned runs in each of his final five regular-season turns and held Kansas City to three runs over 12 1/3 frames in two starts earlier in 2014. Chen yielded a pair of home runs in his ALDS start and was reached for 29 blasts in 32 regular-season outings.

Guthrie missed out on the fun in the wild-card game and the ALDS but gets the nod against his former team in Game 3. The veteran spent five seasons at the top of Baltimore's staff without making the playoffs before leaving via free agency following the 2011 campaign. Guthrie finished the regular season strong, allowing a total of one earned run in 20 1/3 innings over his last three starts, but has not pitched since Sept. 26.

TRENDS:

* Orioles are 0-4 in their last four meetings with the Royals.
* Under is 4-0 in Chen's last four starts versus the Royals.
* Under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Kansas City.
* Orioles are 2-5 in their last seven meetings in Kansas City.

ALDS Game 3 - O's at Royals
By Sportsbook

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (99-68) at KANSAS CITY ROYALS (95-73)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Baltimore -110, Kansas City +100, Total: 7.5

The Royals look to take a demanding 3-0 series lead in the ALCS when they host the Orioles on Monday night.

Baltimore used its big bats to lead the majors in home runs (211) and dominated both the AL East, winning by 12 games over its closest contender, and the ALDS by sweeping the Tigers. Over the first two games of this series, the offense has pounded out 10 runs on 23 hits, but has hit just one home run. The Orioles have also not found any reliable pitching, giving up 14 runs over two losses at Camden Yards.

On Saturday, they took a tie game into the ninth inning before allowing two runs in the top half of the inning in a 6-4 loss as they tallied nine hits; including having their 2-3-4 hitters go 6-for-13 with 3 RBI and three runs. OF Adam Jones has the lone homer for the O's in the series, and brings a four-game hitting streak into this one.

Kansas City has had the dream postseason, going a perfect 6-0 while coming away victorious in four extra-inning games. They have already totaled 25 hits over their first two wins with four of them leaving the ballpark. In Saturday’s win, the Royals got a hit from eight of their nine starters while going 4-for-12 with runners in scoring position. One of the main keys to this historic playoff run has been ninth-place hitter 3B Mike Moustakas, who had a home run in Saturday’s win while going 7-for-22 with 4 HR, 5 RBI and six runs over the six postseason games thus far.

Attempting to get his team back in the win column will be starter LHP Wei-Yin Chen (0-0, 12.27 ERA in postseason) as he goes against Kansas City’s RHP Jeremy Guthrie (13-11, 4.13 ERA in regular season), who pitched five seasons with Baltimore. The Orioles have been outstanding on the road this year, going 47-35 (.573, 3rd in majors), while the Royals are a mediocre 44-39 (.530, 16th in MLB) at home.

Kansas City upped its record against Baltimore over the past three seasons to 14-11 (.560) after Saturday’s victory while the teams have split 10 games (5-5) at Kauffman Stadium in that time. Bettors should take notice that the Orioles are 73-38 (.658) in night games this year while the Royals are 26-8 (.765) after having won six or seven of their previous eight contests in 2014.

As far as injuries go, Baltimore left 1B Chris Davis (suspended until Game 5) off of the ALCS roster, while 3B Manny Machado (knee) is out for the rest of the year, On the other side of the diamond, Kansas City has no significant omissions from their offense.

Wei-Yin Chen has been a solid yet unspectacular starter since joining the majors in 2012 and did well in 2014 by posting a career-best 3.54 ERA. He also showed a tremendous amount of control (1.7 BB/9) while striking out 6.6 batters per nine innings. Chen finished off the regular season with a great September (2-2, 2.05 ERA) but could not continue that success in his first postseason start as he earned a no-decision after giving up five runs on seven hits (2 HR) over 3.2 innings against Detroit in the ALDS. Overall in his career against the Royals, Chen is 1-1 (3-3 team record) with a 4.17 ERA (1.42 WHIP) while earning a win (5.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 Ks) in his last outing earlier this year. Both DH Billy Butler (8-for-18, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HR, 4 RBI) and 1B Eric Hosmer (7-for-17, 1 double, 2 HR, 5 RBI) have torched Chen over their careers, while C Salvador Perez is a poor 2-for-13 (.154) in the matchup.

The bullpen for Baltimore was sharp during the regular season, going 28-21 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, but so far in this series, O's relievers have a subpar combined pitching line of: 10.1 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 7 BB's and 11 K's, which equates to a 4.35 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Zach Britton (4.91 ERA, 2 saves in postseason), who forced batters into groundballs 75.3% of the time in the regular season, has allowed five base-runners in only 1.1 innings in the ALCS.

Jeremy Guthrie has had a long career (275 games, 248 starts) despite a mediocre 4.23 lifetime ERA and 5.4 K/9. This year, he upped his strikeout rate slightly (5.5 K/9) while walking just 2.2 batters per nine innings and allowing his lowest HR rate (1.02 HR/9) since becoming a full-time starter. He finished off the regular season on a positive note, with his team going 9-3 over his final 12 starts of the year while he had a 2.40 ERA in five September outings. Although he has pitched in nearly 300 games, Guthrie has yet to make a postseason start and is 2-1 (2-2 team record) with a 2.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP against his former team over his career.

The most productive bat in the lineup over his time against the veteran has been OF Nelson Cruz who is 6-for-24 (.250) with a double and 6 RBI while SS J.J. Hardy (3-for-14, 2 K's), OF Adam Jones (1-for-12, 2 K's) and OF Delmon Young (4-for-27) have all been poor in the matchup. Including the postseason, Kansas City relievers have combined to go 33-18 (.647) with a 3.24 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, while being 57-for-69 (83%) in save opportunities.

However, these numbers are far worse at home, where the bullpen carries a 4.08 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. After mowing down 13 batters per nine frames in the regular season, closer Greg Holland (1.50 ERA, 4 saves) has allowed just three hits while striking out nine in his six postseason innings.

College Betting Recap - Week 7
By Daniel Dobish

Overall Notes

College Football Week 7 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 42-12
Against the Spread 25-29

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 30-24
Against the Spread 25-29

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 27-25-1


The largest underdog to cash
Eastern Michigan (+14.5, ML +500) vs Buffalo, 37-27

The largest favorite to cash
Tennessee (-25) vs Chattanooga, 45-10

Top 25 Notes
-- The upset bug took the weekend off after a tumultuous week for high ranked teams in the previous Saturday. Top 10 teams went 9-1 straight-up (SU) and 3-7 against the spread (ATS). Only Auburn fell, and that's because they were matched up against Mississippi State.

-- Oregon fell out of the Top 10 with their setback against Arizona last weekend, but they got back on track with a 42-30 win at UCLA.

-- Alabama just narrowly averted its second straight loss, hanging onto a 14-13 win at Arkansas. The Hogs were able to score against the Tide for the first time since 2011.

-- Oklahoma State is well down the rankings, but their only loss of the season is to top-ranked Florida State in their opening game in Arlington. The Cowboys likely won't shoot up the rankings after looking rather sluggish at Kansas. The Cowboys won, but didn't come close to covering.

-- Notre Dame was in a defensive slugfest last weekend with Stanford, but this week was a track meet with North Carolina. The Irish were unable to cover for just the second time in six games. As a double-digit home favorite, the Irish are just 1-2 ATS.

-- Overall in the Top 25, ranked teams were 14-7 SU and 6-15 ATS, with five games featuring ranked teams facing each other.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- In the ACC, Florida State looked like a top-ranked team for the second straight game, having no trouble with an inferior opponent at Syracuse, 38-20. Of course, the Orange were able to score a touchdown with 10:37 left in regulation to grab a cover. ... UNC covered for the first time in six tries in South Bend Saturday. The Tar Heels have given up 27 or more points in each of their six games this season, and 50 or more points in three of their past four. ... Miami-Florida got back on track with a 55-34 win and cover over Cincinnati. The Hurricanes are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS, including three straight covers, at home.

-- One of the best games of the day took place in Waco in Big 12 action, especially if you like offense. Texas Christian piled up 58 points in regulation - and lost. Baylor trailed 58-37 with 11:38 left, but the Bears hit a field goal at the buzzer to stun the Horned Frogs. ... Kansas has dropped three straight, but they are 3-1 ATS in the past four outings. The 'under' has also cashed in five straight for the Jayhawks. ... Texas slipped to 2-4 SU with a narrow 31-26 loss to Oklahoma in the Red River rivalry game, but they covered for the third time in four outings.

-- Minnesota won and covered against Northwestern in an early-afternoon game, winning 24-17. The Gophers have won and covered three straight, and their only setback this season came at TCU back on Sept. 13. ... Iowa posted a season-high 45 points in their win over Indiana. After starting out 0-3 ATS, the Hawkeyes have covered three in a row. ... Wisconsin won for the fourth time in five games, but the Badgers have failed to cover in three straight, and they're just 1-5 ATS on the season.

-- It was a light slate in the Pac-12, with Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon State and Utah getting the week off. ... Washington brought California down to Earth quite a bit with a 31-7 win in Berkeley. It was quite amazing since Cal had scored 60 points last week in a win at Washington State. ... Southern California outlasted Arizona 28-26 in an amazing game in Tucson (see Bad Beats below).

There were no hiccups from the Magnolia State teams in SEC play. After huge wins a week ago, Mississippi and Mississippi State were impressive again versus big-time SEC West foes. Ole Miss pounded A&M 35-20 in front of the 12th man, and the Bulldogs fileted the Tigers 38-23, likely staking claim to the No. 1 spot in the rankings for the first time in school history. The Bulldogs have covered four straight, and they're 5-1 ATS this season. The Rebels, also 6-0 SU, improved to 5-0-1 ATS on the season. ... Louisiana State won 30-27 at Florida on a 50-plus field goal in the waning seconds. LSU is 25-1 SU under Les Miles following a loss.

Mid-Major Report

It was a topsy-turvy day in the Mid-American Conference. Eastern Michigan scored the biggest upset of the week with a 37-27 win over Buffalo. The Eagles are just 2-4 SU, but they have covered three of the past four. ... Massachusetts snapped a 12-game losing streak with a 40-17 win at Kent State. While the Minutemen have struggled straight-up, they are 5-1 ATS over the past six games. ... Toledo lost on the road to Iowa State, and the Rockets are just 1-5 ATS over the past six.

--Georgia Southern was back to its covering ways, taking down Idaho as a 21.5-point favorite. The Eagles are now 6-1 ATS in seven games this season. ... For the sixth straight game, New Mexico State saw the cover hit. They travel to the Kibbie Dome in Idaho next week. The Vandals have seen the over go 4-1-1 in six games this season.

-- In Mountain West play, Colorado State won for the fourth straight games, and they are also 4-0 ATS during the span while the under has cashed in three in a row. ... Air Force was buried 34-16 at Utah State. The under hit for the third straight game for the Falcons, and the under is 5-1 in six games this season. ... New Mexico lost Friday to San Diego State, and the Lobos are just 1-5 ATS this season.

Bad Beats

If you had the 'over' (54.5) in the Boston College-North Carolina State game, you were loving the 14-14 score at the end of the first quarter. However, the rains came after halftime, and there was a lightning delay. That caused the scoring to grind to a halt, and there were just nine total points in the second half on the soggy turf.

-- If you had Arizona on the moneyline, it was a tough loss. The Wildcats scratched back from 15 down to close to 28-26. After a successful onside kick, Arizona drove down for a very makeable field goal. However, a successful kick didn't count because USC called timeout first to ice the kicker. It actually worked, as the attempt from 36 yards was well wide right, and the Trojans held on while Wildcats' moneyline bettors shook their head.

-- Also in the Pac-12 Friday, Washington State looked to be in line for a cover. However, some late offensive struggles gave Stanford the ball back. Rather than sitting on the lead, the Cardinal poked in a touchdown with 98 seconds left to kill Cougar side bettors.

-- Total bettors in UMass-Kent State were either happy or destroyed by a pick-six by the Minutemen with 2:03 left. Under bettors likely had to settle for a push.

Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 7
By Mike Rose

Week 7 of the 2014 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1) Florida State (W-L vs. Syracuse 38-20)
The Noles never broke a sweat against Syracuse, but they were never good enough to cover either.

2) Auburn (L-L vs. Mississippi State 38-23)
Home field advantage is really going to be key in the SEC West this year, and Auburn fell victim to all of the cowbells in Starkville.

3) Baylor (W-L vs. TCU 61-58)
The Bears rallied with 24 straight in the fourth to take down TCU and live to fight another day on Survival Saturday.

4) Ole Miss (W-W vs. Texas A&M 35-20)
All of the hype is around MSU, but Ole Miss legitimately has a claim to No. 1 as well after putting forth a dominating performance on the road in College Station a week after upsetting annual powerhouse Alabama.

5) Notre Dame (W-L vs. North Carolina 50-43)
Up Next) A date with the defending champs. Notre Dame's defense looked like it was already looking ahead to Jameis Winston and the gang in Tallahassee before dealing with UNC.

6) Mississippi State (W-W vs. Auburn 38-23)
Dan Mullen has brought the Bulldogs all the way up to the No. 1 team in the land.

7) Alabama (W-L vs. Arkansas 14-13)
The Tide look like anything but a legit playoff team right now. They were lucky to escape Fayetteville with their playoff hopes still intact.

8) Michigan State (W-L vs. Purdue 45-31)
A late pick six was all that made this game look more respectable than it really was for Sparty.

9) Oklahoma (W-L vs. Texas 31-26)
The Sooners went 1-for-11 on third downs and were outgained by 250 yards in the Red River Rivalry, but they lived to tell about it.

10) Georgia (W-W vs. Missouri 34-0)
No Todd Gurley? No problems for the Bulldogs. Likely the most impressive win of the Richt era.

11) Oregon (W-W vs. UCLA 42-30)
There are still really big problems along the offensive line for the Ducks, who are barely skating by.

12) TCU (L-L vs. Baylor 61-58)
The Horned Frogs will rue the day that they let one get away in Waco.

13) Arizona (L-L vs. USC 28-26)
We knew that the Wildcats were always fools' gold. There's a reason the oddsmakers opened them up as dogs against an unranked USC team at home.

14) Texas A&M (L-L vs. Ole Miss 35-20)
Kiss A&M's chances of playing in the first playoff goodbye after a second straight loss to a Mississippi school.

15) Ohio State (Bye)

16) Kansas State (Bye)

17) UCLA (L-L vs. UCLA 42-30)
The Bruins had fighting on their bench between coaches, and that's not something you see every day.

18) Oklahoma State (W-L vs. Kansas 27-20)
The Pokes were on high upset alert most of the day before squeaking out a win in Lawrence.

19) East Carolina (W-L vs. South Florida 28-17)
It took 30 minutes for the Pirates to wake up, but they finally downed a bad USF team.

20) Arizona State (Bye)

21) Nebraska (Bye)

22) Stanford (W-W vs. Washington State 34-17)
A week after Connor Halliday broke the NCAA record for passing yards in a game, he had zip going against the Cardinal.

23) Georgia Tech (L-L vs. Duke 31-25)
The Ramblin' Wreck lost to Duke for the first time in a decade and a half on Saturday.

24) Missouri (L-L vs. Georgia 34-0)
Maty Mauk and the Mizzou offense were just downright embarrassing on Saturday.


25) Clemson (W-L vs. Louisville 23-17)
The win meant nothing. Deshaun Watson's broken hand meant everything. The freshman phenom will now be out for at least a month with this injury.

NCAAF opening line report: Hard to trust Notre Dame vs. Florida State
By COLIN KELLY

Yes, we’re heading into Week 8 of the 2014 college football season. But this week, we’re gonna party like its 1993.

Notre Dame at Florida State (-12.5)

Back then, unbeaten and top-ranked Florida State faced unbeaten and second-ranked Notre Dame in a late-season battle that the host fighting Irish won, 31-24. Notre Dame faltered a week later, though, losing to Boston College, while the Seminoles rebounded and ultimately won the national title.

Twenty-one years later, both are unbeaten again, and defending national champion Florida State will get to host Notre Dame this Saturday. The winner keeps alive hopes to reach the four-team playoff, and the loser is on the outside looking in. The No. 2 ‘Noles (6-0 SU) have been awful against the number, at 1-5 ATS, failing to cover as 23-point chalks in a 38-20 win at Syracuse last weekend. The fifth-ranked Irish (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) struggled Saturday, holding on for a 50-43 win over North Carolina as a 16.5-point favorite.

John Lester, is wary of both sides – but more so Notre Dame.

“We still haven’t seen that convincing, marquee win from Florida State. Perhaps they’ve just been going through the motions,” Lester said. “This could be the week, as Notre Dame isn’t nearly as deep from a talent perspective. The Irish always have their supporters, but they’re tough to trust right now, from a sharp standpoint.”

Texas A&M Aggies at Alabama Crimson Tide (-12.5)

Another week, another key clash in the Southeastern Conference, which continues to eat its own – with the exception of Mississippi State and Mississippi, whom A&M has lost to over the past two weekends to soil its season. On Saturday, the Aggies got drubbed at home by Ole Miss 35-20 as a 2.5-point fave.

Alabama bounced back from its loss at Mississippi by narrowly outlasting Arkansas 14-13, falling well short as a 9-point road chalk.

“Going back to last week, I called for the Aggies to get upset at home (by Mississippi,)” Lester said. “The Johnny Manziel hype is over; this is a bad defense with a decent offense. The Tide is poised for a breakout game, and this should be it. The Alabama offense will find its footing here.”

Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma Sooners (-9.5)

Oklahoma (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) has proven vulnerable the past two weekends, losing outright 37-33 at Texas Christian laying 3.5 points, then struggling to hold off overmatched Texas in a 31-26 win as a 16.5-point fave in the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl. Kansas State (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, coming off a bye, suffered its only loss against Auburn (20-14 catching 7 points at home last month). The Wildcats have cashed their last three in a row, most recently a 45-13 beatdown of Texas Tech giving 14 points at home.

“Is the blueprint out on Oklahoma?” Lester said. “Granted, it’s seen two very sound defenses recently, but Kansas State brings another one to the table, and Bill Snyder does a fine job getting his kids ready with extra preparation. The Wildcats aren’t the sexy team in this matchup, but I bet they keep it very close.”

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-9.5)

TCU (4-1 SU) is the only team in the nation with a perfect ATS mark, cashing in all five of its games – though Mississippi and Virginia are both 5-0-1. After upending Oklahoma 37-33 getting 3.5 points two weekends ago, the Horned Frogs blew a big lead and lost a shootout at No. 3 Baylor 61-58, but covered as a 7-point underdog.

Since losing its season opener at home to Florida State, Oklahoma State (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) has peeled off five consecutive SU wins. But the Cowboys have alternated ATS wins and losses all season, winning 27-20 at Kansas on Saturday, well short of covering as 19.5-point chalks.

“You always know what you’re going to get with Gary Patterson’s (TCU) squads – sound defense and sound special teams,” Lester said. “But the offense goes as the quarterback goes, and Trevone Boykin is erratic. This is the Cowboys’ first test since their opener against Florida State, so we will certainly see what they’re made of.”

NFL Betting Recap - Week 6

Overall Notes

NFL Week 6 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 9-3-1
Against the Spread 7-6

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 3-9-1
Against the Spread 3-10

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 9-4


NFL Overall Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 60-28-1
Against the Spread 46-40-3

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 49-39-1
Against the Spread 37-49-3

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 48-41


Biggest Favorite to Cash

Denver (-9.5) defeated the Jets, 31-17, as the Broncos cashed with a late interception return for a touchdown.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Dallas (+9.5) stunned Seattle, 30-23 to pick up its fifth consecutive win to own the best record in the NFC at 5-1. The Cowboys cashed on the money-line at +350 (Bet $100 to win $350).

Highway to Hell

Home teams were flat out awful in Week 6. How bad was it for the hosts? Only three home squads won as the Titans, Browns, and Cardinals each came out with victories, but Tennessee didn't cover as four-point favorites in a 16-14 win over Jacksonville. Overall, road teams put together a fantastic 9-3-1 SU and 10-3 ATS record in Week 6.

Saved by the Pick-Six

It was mentioned earlier about the Broncos taking back a late interception for a touchdown to cash against the Jets, but that wasn't the only front-door cover in the final minute. The Cardinals couldn't convert a first down against the Redskins in the last minute, leading Washington 23-20 as five-point favorites. Following a punt, Kirk Cousins threw a pick-six that gave Arizona a 30-20 victory to improve to 4-1 and give Cardinal backers a miracle cover.

Back in Business

The Lions, Patriots, Ravens, and Packers all won on the road to improve to 4-2. Detroit bounced back from last week's last-second loss to Buffalo by cruising past Minnesota, 17-3 as one-point road underdogs. New England doesn't look like the same team that got destroyed at Kansas City two weeks ago, as the Patriots' offense has woken up in wins over the Bengals and Bills. Sunday's 37-22 victory at Buffalo improved New England to 2-2 SU/ATS on the road and 1-1 inside the AFC East.

Baltimore pulled off the biggest rout in Week 6, manhandling Tampa Bay, 48-17 as three-point road favorites. Joe Flacco threw four touchdown passes...in the first quarter to give Baltimore a commanding 28-0 lead after 15 minutes. Green Bay needed a late rally to knock off Miami, 27-24 as 1.5-point road favorites, as the money came in on the Dolphins late in the week.

Sunday Line Moves

Prior to the 1:00 p.m. ET kickoffs, there were a handful of line moves on Sunday, which was reported to be sharp action. Make a note that even the professionals or so-called wise guys lose too.

Denver -6.5 to Denver -9.5 (WIN)
Miami +3.5 to Miami +1.5 (LOSS)
Minnesota +1 to Minnesota -1 (LOSS)
Buffalo +3 to Buffalo +1 (LOSS)
Seattle -8 to Seattle -9.5 (LOSS)
Arizona -3 to Arizona -5 (WIN)
N.Y. Giants +3 to N.Y. Giants +1.5(LOSS)

All Knotted Up

It's fair to say we all hate ties in sports. Carolina and Cincinnati played an epic game at Paul Brown Stadium, but there was no winner as the two teams finished in a 34-34 tie. The Bengals had a chance to win the game with a field goal at the end of overtime, but missed it. Cincinnati's 11-game home regular season winning streak was snapped, while Carolina covered as seven-point road underdogs.

Committment to Awfulness

The Raiders were that close to winning their first game of the season, but couldn't hold onto a 28-21 fourth quarter lead as the Chargers rallied for 10 late points in a 31-28 victory at the Black Hole. Oakland managed to cover as 7.5-point home underdogs, but the Raiders fell to 0-5 on the season.

Let's not get Jacksonville off the hook when mentioning winless clubs, as the Jaguars still haven't won this season. The good news for the Jags is that they finally covered a game after going 0-5 ATS the first five weeks, but Jacksonville dropped a 16-14 decision at Tennessee as four-point 'dogs.

Totals

The 'over' cashed in nine of 13 games, including eight contests in which the winning team scored at least 30 points. Cleveland was the lone team to score over 30 points and not produce an 'over,' as the Browns drilled the 'under' for the first time this season.

The late interception returns in both the Broncos-Jets game and Redskins-Cardinals contest each clinched the 'over.'

The game with the highest total (56) never came close to being threatened, as the Bears beat the Falcons, 27-13. At halftime, the two teams combined for 16 points.

After seeing the 'under' cash in their first two road games, the Chargers exploded for 31 points and their first away 'over' on the season.

The Bucs started the season with consecutive 'unders,' but Tampa Bay has hit the 'over' in four straight games, while allowing at least 37 points three times in the past four weeks.

NFL Opening Line Report: Cowboys' betting bandwagon as full as ever
By COLIN KELLY

Week 7 of the NFL season is highlighted by the rekindling of a traditional rivalry, with one team on the rise – the Dallas Cowboys – and the other mired in a mediocre fog -- the New York Giants.

Dallas (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) is undergoing a completely unexpected resurgence, having won five in a row SU. On Sunday, the Cowboys were 10-point underdogs at Seattle, but pulled out a stunning 30-23 victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks.

New York (3-3 SU and ATS) looked as if it had gotten its season back on track, winning three in a row SU and ATS, but the Giants got completely shut down Sunday night at Philadelphia, losing 27-0 as a 1-point underdog.

John Lester, expects the game to attract a lot of betting attention, with two very public teams. He held off setting a firm line, to evaluate New York after its blowout loss Sunday, in which the Giants likely lost star wideout Victor Cruz for the rest of the season with a knee injury.
“We always have loads of action on this matchup,” Lester said. “The Cowboys are obviously coming off a big win, and their betting bandwagon is as full as ever. I’m envisioning at least a 4-point spread here.”

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos

The Niners still have unfinished Week 6 business, playing in the Monday night game at St. Louis. San Fran (3-2 SU and ATS) bounced back from two consecutive SU and ATS losses to win and cover at home against Philadelphia and Kansas City.

The Broncos (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) have covered two in a row, getting a late interception for a TD on Sunday to claim a 31-17 win laying 10 points against the host New York Jets.

“The Broncos didn’t peek ahead to this one, playing a complete game against the Jets,” Lester said. “If the Niners take care of business Monday night, we’ll probably make Denver around a 6-point favorite. This should be a good litmus test for both teams.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Two of the league’s rising young quarterbacks square off in a matchup of division leaders. Andrew Luck and Indy (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) will come in with a little extra rest, after traveling to Houston last Thursday and winning 33-28 as a 2.5-point road fave – the Colts’ fourth consecutive win and cover.

Meanwhile, Andy Dalton and Cincy (3-1-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)have cooled off after a 3-0 SU and ATS start, getting walloped on the road at New England, then settling for a 37-37 home tie Sunday against Carolina as a 7-point favorite.

“A lot of perceptions about these teams have changed over the last few weeks,” Lester said. “The Colts appear to be hitting their stride offensively, and Cincy’s defense has sprung some leaks. With extra time to prepare and being a great team in the dome, I wanted Indy a bit higher, but we settled at the key number (-3).”

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

It’s on the Monday night marquee, but these two middling franchises aren’t living up to that billing. Houston (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) has lost two in a row SU, including last Thursday’s 33-28 home setback as a 2.5-point ‘dog against Indianapolis.

The Steelers (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) are much harder to explain. They lost at home earlier this season to hapless Tampa Bay, and they got smoked Sunday at Cleveland 31-10 catching 2.5 points.

“The casual bettor will be eager to side with the Steelers in this matchup. But that defense has certainly looked suspect the last couple of weeks,” Lester said. “The Texans can win this game if they run the ball well.”

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 13 - Post: 10:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 79 - Purse:$3500 - NON WINNERS $250 PER START IN 2014. AE: N/W $1500 IN LAST 5 STARTS THAT ARE N/W $25,000 IN 2014. NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER NORTHFIELD TRACKMAN SELECTIONS: 2-1-3-4-5 TRAINER CHANGE HN 7 K.ANDERSON TO C.FLYNN


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 LITTLE AMOS 9/2


# 7 KING CAT ANVIL N 8/1


# 3 FOREVER HAPPY 4/1

All signs point to LITTLE AMOS for the pick. Worth considering in this one if only for the really strong TrackMaster Speed Rating earned in the last affair. Take a good look at making this horse your win bet based on high win percent alone. KING CAT ANVIL N - This competition may be controlled by this gelding. One look at the avgerage TrackMaster Speed Rating will verify that. It's a bit risky to consider on class alone, but this gelding has among the top class figures of the bunch. FOREVER HAPPY - If performance in the last competition is representative, this standardbred will have a very really strong shot in this contest. High last race speed rating.

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Post: 7:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 85 - Purse:$8500 - NON-WINNERS OF $5,000 IN LAST 6 STARTS WINNERS OVER $35,000 IN 2014 NOT ELIGIBLE. HORSES WITH LESS THAN $3,000 IN LAST 6 STARTS NE.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 DVCFLYINGFRENCHMAN 3/1


# 5 DASHPEDIA 6/1


# 7 SIX GUN 5/2

The contender in this one is DVCFLYINGFRENCHMAN. Many horse players know speed is of the utmost importance. This contender has credentials with a 87 average figure. A really good class horse should not be be passed over. With an average class number of 87 all signs point to yes. The brain trust noted a formidable event out of this race horse last time. Hoping for a repeat effort of that to dominate. DASHPEDIA - With Bartlett in the cart, watch out for this entrant to get the top prize. SIX GUN - Has a huge shot in here, if he can race to his back class. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the sulky one of the top drivers in win percentage the past month.