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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF STAT/SHEETS
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
______________________________________


***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #8 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
__________________________________________________

Week #8 Top-25 Matchups
Systems Analyst James Vogel

#313 MARSHALL @ #314 FLA INTERNATIONAL - 6:00 PM

Florida International continues to surprise with a defense that is creating turnovers at a high rate. The Panthers lost by 38 points at home against Marshall last season as they will host the Conference USA favorites again this season. Marshall enters this confrontation coming off homecoming and the road history for the Thundering Herd is not overly promising despite the potential of this year’s team. It is hard to imagine a very limited Panthers offense keeping up in this matchup but this is not an ideal spot on the schedule for the favorite and a few big plays might keep Florida International in the mix.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MARSHALL is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL since 1992.
--MARSHALL is 2-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL since 1992.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--FLA INTERNATIONAL is 1-1 versus the first half line when playing against MARSHALL since 1992.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--MRSH is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--MRSH is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
--Over is 6-2 in MRSH last 8 road games.

--FIU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--FIU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
--Under is 12-3-1 in FIU last 16 games in October.
_____________________________________

#325 BAYLOR @ #326 W VIRGINIA - 12:00 PM

Both of these Big XII squads are coming off truly epic comeback wins last week. West Virginia trailed by 14 late at Texas Tech before a great comeback, winning on a 55-yard field goal. In a huge game with national implications Baylor delivered a comeback victory for the ages, down 21 with 11 minutes to go before an incredible rally on both sides of the ball. Baylor is the top scoring team in the nation this season but a defense that posted great early season numbers was certainly exposed last Saturday. West Virginia is capable of keeping pace in what could be a daunting emotional spot for both teams. Baylor has three road wins this season but the recent track record away from home is suspect and this is a third road encounter in four weeks for the Bears. Baylor lost at West Virginia two years ago and now with a clean path to the Big XII Conference title this is a dangerous spot. The Mountaineers held their own against Alabama and Oklahoma so they will be ready.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BAYLOR is 2-0 against the spread versus W VIRGINIA since 1992.
--W VIRGINIA is 1-1 straight up against BAYLOR since 1992.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--BAYLOR is 2-0 versus the first half line when playing against W VIRGINIA since 1992.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--BAY is 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games on fieldturf.
--BAY is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.
--Over is 12-4-2 in BAY last 18 games in October.

--WVU is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
--WVU is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
--Under is 5-2 in WVU last 7 games in October.
_____________________________________

#339 GEORGIA @ #340 ARKANSAS - 4:00 PM
This is a Little Rock home date for an Arkansas squad that is still without a Southeastern Conference win under Bret Bielema. The last two defeats have been demoralizing with blown late leads including just missing out on a huge marquee win opportunity against Alabama, a game the Razorbacks truly dominated. With the Todd Gurley suspension overshadowing last week’s test in Missouri, the Bulldogs stepped up on defense with a rare shutout win. Georgia is back in front of the SEC East but unlike many of their counterparts they will have to play Auburn in November. This will be a second straight road game against a still hungry Razorbacks team with Georgia overvalued.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ARKANSAS is 5-4 against the spread versus GEORGIA since 1992.
--GEORGIA is 7-2 straight up against ARKANSAS since 1992.
--5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--GEORGIA is 4-3 versus the first half line when playing against ARKANSAS since 1992.
--4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--UGA is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
--UGA is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
--Over is 16-5 in UGA last 21 games overall.

--ARK is 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games.
--ARK is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
--Over is 16-7-1 in UGA last 24 conference games.
_____________________________________

#359 STANFORD @ #360 ARIZONA ST - 10:30 PM
The Cardinal possesses one of the truly elite defenses in the nation, something that is becoming increasingly rare. Stanford is allowing just 10 points per game against a credible schedule and while this is a 4-2 team both losses came by three points. The Stanford offense has consistently left points on the field as this will be a difficult team to back laying points. Arizona State is 4-1 as they hope to defend last season’s Pac-12 South title and star quarterback Taylor Kelly is expected back this week. Getting a split in two very tough games without Kelly was a big result for the Sun Devils who still have a great offensive team even with a lot of player turnover from last season. Stanford won 42-28 in 2013 at home in this matchup but Arizona State had more yards and the Cardinal are hard to trust right now.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ARIZONA ST is 10-10 against the spread versus STANFORD since 1992.
--ARIZONA ST is 10-10 straight up against STANFORD since 1992.
--10 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--STANFORD is 11-9 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA ST since 1992.
--12 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Cardinal are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--STAN is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in October.
--STAN is 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 conference games.
--Under is 35-16 in STAN last 51 games in October.

--ASU is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
--ASU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
--Over is 7-0 in ASU last 7 games following a bye week.
_____________________________________

#361 WASHINGTON @ #362 OREGON - 3:30 PM
The Ducks came through with a huge win over UCLA last week although the significance of that game may not be what it was initially expected to be. Every Pac-12 team has a loss now as both divisions are wide open and the Ducks can still work back into the national playoff picture as there will be several more big chips falling in the coming weeks. Oregon gave up over 550 yards last Saturday and the defense has been shaky in every Pac-12 game. This is also a rare year where Oregon is not a top 25 team in rushing yardage nationally as the offensive line has been an issue. Washington enters this game off a big win at California, a bit of misleading result as Cal turnovers set the stage for the runaway win. This is a second straight road contest for the Huskies who lost badly at home against then #2 Oregon last season. Oregon still has plenty of issues despite the convincing victory last Saturday and the Ducks should be a suspect heavy favorite coming off a huge game. Washington has been a steady team that will hang around.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OREGON is 13-8 against the spread versus WASHINGTON since 1992.
--OREGON is 15-6 straight up against WASHINGTON since 1992.
--10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--OREGON is 13-6 versus the first half line when playing against WASHINGTON since 1992.
--11 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Favorite is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
--Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Huskies are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
--Huskies are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Oregon.

•RECENT TRENDS
--WASH is 4-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
--WASH is 16-39-2 ATS in their last 57 games in October.
--Under is 5-1 in WASH L6 versus a team with a winning record.

--ORE is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
--ORE is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games in October.
--Over is 35-17-1 in ORE last 53 home games.
_____________________________________

#367 RUTGERS @ #368 OHIO ST - 3:30 PM
Both of these Big Ten squads were off last week and this is homecoming for the Buckeyes, playing just their second conference game of the season. Not much was expected for Rutgers this season in the move to the Big Ten Conference but the Knights are 5-1 rested after coming off a big win over Michigan and Rutgers is just three points away from still being undefeated. The Scarlet Knights slowed down Washington State earlier this season as the defense is capable but losing Paul James in the backfield certainly hurts moving forward. Ultimately the Rutgers schedule has not been that strong and a turnover prone quarterback could struggle in a tough venue against an underrated defense that has had to play extreme passing offenses in the past two games, allowing some point in the process. Despite facing some inflated numbers in recent years the Buckeyes have been a strong ATS performer in the home favorite role and this game won’t be overlooked.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--All games in this series since 1992. Note: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

•RECENT TRENDS
--RUTG is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--RUTG is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
--Under is 5-1 in RUTG last 6 road games.

--OSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
--OSU is 5-2 ATS in their L7 games following a bye week.
--Over is 5-0 in OSU last 5 games in October.
_____________________________________

#369 TEXAS A&M @ #370 ALABAMA - 3:30 PM
After suffering its first loss of the season Alabama nearly doubled its trouble with a terrible performance at Arkansas, barely eclipsing 200 yards but escaping with a narrow (14-13) victory. It is possible that the Crimson Tide just have too many big shoes to replace from the great run of success in recent years but the last two encounters have also both been on the road. Texas A&M has given Alabama trouble in two tight games the last two seasons with the road team winning each time. The Aggies have their own slide to deal with however, losing to Mississippi State and Mississippi in back-to-back weeks and that was after barely surviving against Arkansas themselves. Ultimately the Aggies may have been overvalued with the big surprise win over South Carolina carrying too much weight. The offense for Texas A&M still has a lot of potential but the defense could allow Alabama to break out after low output in the last two games against tough defenses. Ultimately trusting Nick Saban’s track record makes sense in a game between two powerhouse programs that are in danger of becoming irrelevant in the SEC race.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TEXAS A&M is 2-0 against the spread versus ALABAMA since 1992.
--ALABAMA is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS A&M since 1992.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--ALABAMA is 1-1 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS A&M since 1992.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--TAM is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
--TAM is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in October.
--Over is 5-1 in TAM last 6 games in October.

--ALA is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--ALA is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
--Over is 9-4 in ALA last 13 conference games.
_____________________________________

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#371 COLORADO @ #372 USC - 6:00 PM
Southern Cal has featured no shortage of drama this season as a week after getting beat on a Hail Mary, the Trojans allowed a successful on-side kick that should have allowed Arizona to steal a game if not for a missed kick. Arizona was the last remaining undefeated Pac-12 team so that was a big game for USC and while this is homecoming, Colorado won’t be the same draw. The Buffaloes have consistently sat at the bottom of the conference since joining the league in 2011 but this year’s team has competed well in three losses in conference play. Colorado was off last week to boost the preparation for one of the biggest games on the schedule and with a heavy underdog price on an offense that can put up points the Buffaloes are worth a look.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--USC is 3-2 against the spread versus COLORADO since 1992.
--USC is 5-0 straight up against COLORADO since 1992.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--USC is 4-1 versus the first half line when playing against COLORADO since 1992.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--COLO is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
--COLO is 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games in October.
--Over is 8-2 in COLO last 10 road games.

--USC is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--USC is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
--Under is 38-18-2 in USC last 58 home games.
_____________________________________

#373 MICHIGAN ST @ #374 INDIANA - 3:30 PM
Things have gotten downright scary for Michigan State in the past two fourth quarters with the Spartans hanging on to start 2-0 in the Big Ten. In three games versus major conference teams Michigan State has been out-scored 47-7 in the 4th quarters, with the lone MSU touchdown coming on defense. This is a dangerous spot for the Spartans with a second straight road game and with rival Michigan up next week even if it is a down year for the Wolverines. Indiana has been all over the map this season, losing to Bowling Green but beating Missouri on the road. Last week at Iowa turnovers doomed the Hoosiers early though they managed to post significant yardage against a good Iowa defense. Indiana was a headache for Michigan State last season in a 42-28 game that was tight into the second half and this is an ambitious homecoming draw for a Hoosiers team that can run the ball and has a high ceiling on offense if turnovers are avoided.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MICHIGAN ST is 12-6 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1992.
--MICHIGAN ST is 15-3 straight up against INDIANA since 1992.
--9 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--MICHIGAN ST is 10-7 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1992.
--10 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings
--Home team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Indiana.
--Spartans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
--Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Indiana.

•RECENT TRENDS
--MSU is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.
--MSU is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
--Over is 7-1 in MSU last 8 games overall.

--IND is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 conference games.
--Over is 12-4 in IND last 16 home games.
--Over is 19-7-1 in IND last 27 games in October.
_____________________________________

#375 CLEMSON @ #376 BOSTON COLLEGE - 3:30 PM
The Tigers have two losses this season but the defeats came on the road against Georgia and Florida State as the schedule has been very demanding. Star freshmen quarterback Deshaun Watson was injured last week and the offense is not the same without him. This has rounded into an elite defensive team however with a few huge stops last Saturday to hold on in a big Atlantic game with Louisville. Boston College played Clemson tough last season and the Eagles are one of the top rushing teams in the nation, making for a very attractive home underdog. With a win over USC the Eagles have shown that they can overcome talent edges and last week Boston College picked up an impressive road win at NC State in convincing fashion. It looks like a more limited Clemson offense behind senior Cole Stoudt and the Tigers could be vulnerable this week.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
----BOSTON COLLEGE is 5-4 against the spread versus CLEMSON since 1992.
--CLEMSON is 5-4 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE since 1992.
--6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--BOSTON COLLEGE is 5-4 versus the first half line when playing against CLEMSON since 1992.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--CLEM is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
--CLEM is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
--Under is 19-7 in CLEM last 26 games in October.

--BC is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
--BC is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
--Over is 7-1-1 in BC last 9 home games.
_____________________________________

#377 KANSAS ST @ #378 OKLAHOMA - 12:00 PM
Last week’s Red River Rivalry game was not one to remember for the Oklahoma offense but despite limited production, the Sooners turned in big plays to hang on. Oklahoma is back at home for the first time in over a month and this will be a big game for Kansas State visiting Norman. Kansas State was off last week and the only loss for the Wildcats came narrowly against Auburn. Kansas State really does not have a quality win yet this season however but this is a forgotten team that sits undefeated in Big XII play along with Baylor and Oklahoma State. Last season Oklahoma pulled away from Kansas State in a big late season contest to halt a four-game winning streak for the Wildcats but this is a series that the Sooners have struggled in historically. Kansas State has covered in 13 of the last 15 trips to Memorial Stadium including straight-up wins in three of the last six.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KANSAS ST is 10-6 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA since 1992.
--OKLAHOMA is 10-7 straight up against KANSAS ST since 1992.
--7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--KANSAS ST is 10-6 versus the first half line when playing against OKLAHOMA since 1992.
--7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
--Wildcats are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Oklahoma.

•RECENT TRENDS
--KSU is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.
--KSU is 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 conference games.
--Under is 5-2 in KSU last 7 games in October.

--OKLA is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--OKLA is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
--Over is 5-0-1 in OKLA last 6 conference games.
_____________________________________

#387 TENNESSEE @ #388 OLE MISS - 7:00 PM
A lot of folks thought Ole Miss could not survive last Saturday’s letdown spot on the road after beating Alabama but the Rebels made some big plays on defense to lead early and hang on at Texas A&M. At this point one might need to question how good Alabama and Texas A&M really are this year given the huge player turnover for both offenses. This game could be a more dangerous spot for the Rebels after two huge wins and facing a Tennessee team that played a FCS foe in an easy win in Week #7. LSU and Auburn are next on the schedule for the Rebels in key SEC West dates as this contest will be less of draw for a team that is now getting very serious national attention. Tennessee has allowed just 19 points per game and the two conference losses have come by a total of four points. The loss at Oklahoma also featured a very deceptive final score as it was a close game. The Volunteers have a good veteran quarterback but Justin Worley will have a full plate this week as a limited Tennessee running game will not be able to rush against the elite Ole Miss rush defense. Tennessee has some big games ahead and they will be a threat for an upset at some point.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OLE MISS is 4-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 5-1 straight up against OLE MISS since 1992.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--TENNESSEE is 4-2 versus the first half line when playing against OLE MISS since 1992.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--TENN is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
--TENN is 7-18-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
--Over is 5-2 in TENN last 7 games in October.

--MISS is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--MISS is 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games in October.
--Under is 5-0 in MISS last 5 conference games.
_____________________________________

#395 OKLAHOMA ST @ #396 TCU - 4:00 PM
A perfect 5-0 start and control of the Big XII Conference seemed in hand for Texas Christian, leading Baylor by 21 points in the fourth quarter in last week’s huge game. Incredibly Baylor played flawlessly on both sides of the ball the rest of the way and they walked away with a stunning three-point win. Rebounding will be a challenge for the Horned Frogs and the homecoming festivities may not be well received this week facing a difficult matchup with an Oklahoma State team that is quietly still undefeated in Big XII play. The Cowboys won 24-10 in Stillwater last season with early turnovers digging a hole for TCU. After a the impressive close loss against Florida State to open the season, Oklahoma State has played a favorable schedule, facing probably the three weakest teams in the conference in the 3-0 Big XII start but the Horned Frogs could be in a fragile spot with the defense lit up last Saturday for nearly 800 yards.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA ST is 3-1 against the spread versus TCU since 1992.
--OKLAHOMA ST is 3-1 straight up against TCU since 1992.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--TCU is 2-1 versus the first half line when playing against OKLAHOMA ST since 1992.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--OKST is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
--OKST is 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games in October.
--Under is 5-1-1 in OKST last 7 conference games.

--TCU is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--TCU is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
--Over is 6-1 in TCU last 7 games overall.
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#399 NEBRASKA @ #400 NORTHWESTERN - 7:30 PM
Last season Northwestern lost 27-24 in Lincoln to Nebraska on a Hail Mary pass as the Wildcats had one of many incredibly tough losses in a disappointing 5-7 season. Northwestern opened Big Ten play this season with two big wins and the Wildcats out-gained Minnesota soundly last Saturday but wound up with a seven-point defeat on the road. This is homecoming and a huge revenge spot after back-to-back narrow losses in this series. Nebraska was off last week but this contest follows the huge Michigan State game and overall the Cornhuskers don’t have much in terms of quality wins this season. Nebraska is rated as the top team in the Big Ten Conference West but it is not clear why as this team looked headed for another 5-3 Big Ten season.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NORTHWESTERN is 3-1 against the spread versus NEBRASKA since 1992.
--NEBRASKA is 3-1 straight up against NORTHWESTERN since 1992.
--3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--NORTHWESTERN is 3-1 versus the first half line when playing against NEBRASKA since 1992.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--NEB is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--NEB is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
--Under is 23-8 in NEB last 31 games in October.

--NW is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games.
--NW is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
--Under is 9-1 in NW last 10 conference games.
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#403 NOTRE DAME @ #404 FLORIDA ST - 8:00 PM
Notre Dame has become fairly predictable under Brian Kelly, the Irish will play up to the best competition with strong competitive efforts but they will have some tough games against lesser foes along the way, like last Saturday’s game with North Carolina in which a strong Notre Dame defense disappeared. Looking ahead to this matchup certainly seems like a possibility and it is a season-making game for both teams in the mix for national playoff slots but with the loser likely bounced out of contention. Florida State is 1-5 ATS and the Seminoles have struggled defensively this season.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NOTRE DAME is 4-2 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST since 1992.
--FLORIDA ST is 4-2 straight up against NOTRE DAME since 1992.
--4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--NOTRE DAME is 5-1 versus the first half line when playing against FLORIDA ST since 1992.
--4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--ND is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
--ND is 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
--Under is 17-5 in ND last 22 versus the ACC.

--FSU is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
--FSU is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Under is 15-6 in FSU last 21 non-conference games.
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[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h][h=2]NY Jets at New England[/h]The Patriots host the Jets on Thursday night and come into the contest with an 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 home games. New England is the pick (-9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New England (-9 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (10/16)
Game 303-304: NY Jets at New England (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 123.454; New England 141.770
Dunkel Line: New England by 18 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: New England by 9 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: New England (-9 1/2); Over
 
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Game of the Day: Utah at Oregon State

Utah Utes at Oregon State Beavers (+2.5, 52.5)

Utah quarterback Kendal Thompson is expected to make his first start Thursday when the Utes visit Oregon State, which won last season’s meeting 51-48 in overtime. Thompson, who transferred in the offseason from Oklahoma, replaced an inefficient Travis Wilson and rushed for 83 yards to spark No. 23 Utah’s 30-28 upset of UCLA on Oct. 4. Utes coach Kyle Whittingham hasn’t named a starter for Thursday, but all signs point to Thompson getting the nod.

After opening Pac-12 play with a 35-10 loss at USC, Oregon State bounced back from a with a 36-31 victory at Colorado on Oct. 4. Beavers senior quarterback Sean Mannion threw five touchdowns in last year’s win over Utah, but brings a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio into this season’s matchup. While Mannion and his young receiving corps has struggled throughout the first half of the season, Oregon State ranks second in the Pac-12 in total defense at 331.4 yards allowed per game.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.

LINE HISTORY: Utah opened as 2-point road favorites and were bet as high as -3, before settling at -2.5. The total opened at 52 and is now up to 52.5.

INJURY REPORT: Oregon State - OL Garrett Weinreich (questionable Thursday, knee). Utah - N/A.

WEATHER REPORT: It will be mostly cloudy at kickoff with seven mile per hour wind blowing towards the northwest endzone. There will be a slight nine percent chance of rain.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Utah (-10.5) - Oregon State (-4) + home field (-3) = Oregon State +3.5

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Utah as a 1.5 point favorite on the road on Sunday and quickly went to -2 as we took a sharp bet at the 1.5 number. On Monday we went up to Utah -3 but by the end of the day we settled on Utah -2.5 were we currently sit with 64 percent of the action. We opened the total 54.5 yesterday and saw a flood of public money come in on the under pushing us to 53.5 this morning we adjusted to 53 then to 51.5 where we had some sharp money come in on the over at that number forcing us back up to 53 with 59% of the action now on the over." - Michael Stewart of Carbonsports.ag

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Pac-12 rivals Utah and Oregon State will meet in Corvallis on Thursday night. Both teams are 4-1, and both are well rested coming off a bye. The Utes though have climbed into the rankings after upsetting UCLA in Pasadena. The Beavers will likely have their hands full trying to stop Utah's power running game." - Covers Expert Jesse Schule.

ABOUT UTAH (4-1, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Running back Devontae Booker had 156 yards on 33 carries against UCLA and could post similar numbers against an Oregon State front seven that is missing two injured starters. The Utes’ defense leads the nation in sacks (5.6 per game) and tackles for loss (10.2 per game), and defensive end Nate Orchard ranks first in the country with 8.5 sacks. The Utes boast one of the top special teams units in the country, led by kicker Andy Phillips and kick returner Kaelin Clay, who leads the Pac-12 in punt return average (23.1).

ABOUT OREGON STATE (4-1, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Terron Ward provided a boost for the Beavers’ offense with 102 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Colorado, but Mannion has struggled at times while waiting for receivers such as Victor Bolden and Richard Mullaney to become consistent downfield threats. The Beavers rank second in the league in passing efficiency defense, led by linebackers Michael Doctor, D.J. Alexander and Jabral Johnson. Kicker Trevor Romaine has been on a tear since missing the first two games, going 8-for-8 on extra points and 4-for-4 on field goals, including a 47-yarder.

TRENDS:

* Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Utah is 4-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 7-1 in Utah's last eight games versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Oregon State's last six home games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Just under 52 percent of wagers are backing Utah at -2.5.
 
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Thursday Night Football: Jets at Patriots

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10, 44)

Looking like a team whose time had passed just a couple of weeks ago, the New England Patriots are back atop the AFC East and preparing to face an opponent they have dominated in recent years. The Patriots aim to pad their division lead when they host the New York Jets on Thursday. New England has won six of the past seven meetings, but New York claimed a 30-27 overtime win in last season's second showdown.

The Patriots were all but counted out after a 41-14 drubbing by the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night in Week 4, but they've claimed two straight impressive victories, including a 37-22 win at Buffalo on Sunday to move to the top of the standings. While the Jets have lost five straight since a 19-14 win over Oakland in Week 1, they gave defending AFC champion Denver a scare before falling 31-17 on Sunday. The Patriots have won 32 straight home games against AFC opponents, the longest streak since the NFL merger in 1970.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: After opening at Patriots -9.5, the line has since shifted to -10 where it sits currently. The toal opened as 45, but has sinced dropped a point to 44.

INJURY REPORT: Jets - WR David Nelson (Ques-Ankle) Patriots - DL Dominique Easley (Ques-Shoulder), CB Brandon Browner (Ques-Ankle), LB Dont'a Hightower (Ques-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: Rain is suppose to be hitting Gillette Stadium hard from Wednesday night straight through till kickoff. Rain is supposed to open up right around kickoff and dropping 15 mm of rain. Winds are expected to be blowing between five and six mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: The Patriots made it two straight wins to take over first place in the AFC East and now start a three-game homestand. The Pats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points. New York has failed to cover a single game this season after getting frontdoored last Sunday. The road team has covered 4 of last 5 in the series with New England.

ABOUT THE JETS (1-5 SU, 0-5-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U): New York ranks 30th in the league in total offense (303.3 yards per game) and last in passing (182.2) but coach Rex Ryan insists he is committed to second-year quarterback Geno Smith. Smith has thrown seven interceptions — at least one in every game — and has completed only 57.1 percent of his passes, so the Jets have leaned heavily on running backs Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson to power the offense. The Jets rank sixth in the league in total defense but 25th in scoring defense, largely because of unfavorable field position thanks to 12 giveaways.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U): After a disastrous game against the Chiefs, Tom Brady and the Patriots' offense have come back to life the past two games, though the loss of running back Stevan Ridley is a big one. Shane Vereen becomes the featured back with Ridley out, but Brady might have to go to the air more often. The Patriots lead the NFL with a plus-9 turnover margin in large part because of an AFC-best seven interceptions and will try to force Smith into the type of poor decisions he is prone to make.

TRENDS:

*Jets are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
*Over is 14-3 in Patriots last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
*Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in New England.
*Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 57.48 percent of Covers users are backing the Patriots -10, with 64.14 percent taking the over.
 

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Football Crusher
Virginia Tech +1.5 over Pittsburgh
(System Record: 16-3, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 16-16-1

Rest of the Plays
Virginia Tech + Pittsburgh OVER 44.5
Utah + Oregon State UNDER 53
NY Jets +10 over New England Patriots
 

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Hockey Crusher
Montreal Canadiens -120 over Boston Bruins
(System Record: 2-1, lost last 4 games)
Overall Record: 2-4

Rest of the Plays
New York Islanders -102 over San Jose Sharks
Ottawa Senators + Colorado Avalanche OVER 5.5
New Jersey Devils +111 over Washington Capitals
 

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Soccer Crusher
Libertad + River Plate UNDER 2
This match is happening in Conmebol

(System Record: 649-22, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 649-538-97
 
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[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]St. Louis at San Francisco[/h] The Giants look to clinch the NLCS following yesterday's 6-4 win and come into tonight's contest with a 10-2 record in Madison Bumgarner's last 12 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in the previous game. San Francisco is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140). Here are all of today's MLB picks.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 969-970: St. Louis at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.303; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.897
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); Under
 
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StatFox Super Situations

CFB | MARSHALL at FLA INTERNATIONAL
Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (MARSHALL) dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more in 3 straight games
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

CFB | CLEMSON at BOSTON COLLEGE
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (CLEMSON) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season
86-56 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.6% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

CFB | UTAH at OREGON ST
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 25 and 28 after a win by 6 or less points
89-45 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
4-4 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.4 units )
 
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StatFox Super Situations

NFL | CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE
Play On - Home underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record
118-64 since 1997. ( 64.8% | 47.6 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

NFL | NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND
Play Against - Road underdogs of +155 to +325 vs. the money line (NY JETS) with a poor scoring defense - allowing 24 or more points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games
158-36 since 1997. ( 81.4% | 0.0 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

NFL | KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO
Play On - Favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (SAN DIEGO) off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off a road loss
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
 
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StatFox Super Situations

NHL | COLORADO at OTTAWA
Play On - Road Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (COLORADO) poor team - outscored by their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game, after scoring 2 goals or less in 3 straight games
29-7 over the last 5 seasons. ( 80.6% | 21.3 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

NHL | SAN JOSE at NY ISLANDERS
Play Against - Road Favorites against the money line (SAN JOSE) after a close win by 1 goal in their previous game against opponent after scoring 6 goals or more in their previous game
34-18 since 1997. ( 65.4% | 26.6 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
 

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