Service Plays Saturday 10/18/14

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 14, 2014

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Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 14, 2014

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Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 14, 2014

Dr Bob

***MASSACHUSETTS (-14) 44 Eastern Michigan 24

Sat Oct-18-2014 at 12:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 334 Over/Under 0.0

Massachusetts proved once again that they’re good enough to score a lot of points against bad defensive teams, as the Minutemen won 41-17 at Kent State for their 3rd consecutive 40-plus point offensive performance. U Mass actually has scored 31 points or more in 5 of their 7 games with the exclusions being against Boston College and Penn State, and it’s likely that the Minutemen will put up 40 or more points on the scoreboard again this week against a horrible Eastern Michigan defense that’s allowed an average of 40.2 points on 520 total yards per game at 6.9 yards per play (against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). I realize that the Eagles’ defensive scoring average is skewed by the 65 points they gave up to Florida and the 73 they allowed to Michigan State, but giving up 65 points to Florida is an indication that mediocre offensive teams can rack up a lot of points against the Eagles, who have allowed 6.7 yards per play or more in all but one game this season (and that includes giving up 6.9 yppl to FCS team Morgan State). U Mass hasn’t faced a defense this bad and my math model projects 547 total yards at 6.9 yppl and 42.5 points for U Mass in this game.

Eastern Michigan is coming off a rare win, as freshman quarterback Reginald Bell Jr. came off the bench to spark the win over Buffalo with 144 yards on 13 pass plays and 202 yards on 17 runs, which included a 72 yard touchdown. All indications are that Bell will get the start this week but I don’t expect he’ll put up numbers that good again. Bell played in 3 other games previously and totaled just 49 yards on 25 pass plays and 70 yards on 16 runs in those games. Overall, Bell’s passing numbers (5.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.6 yppp to an average quarterback) are actually 0.9 yppp better than they team average and his rushing numbers would 0.6 yards per rushing play to the Eagles’ attack. Overall, if I assume Bell is indeed a major upgrade despite the limited sample size, then the Eagles’ offense goes from 2.0 yards per play worse than average (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) to 1.1 yppl worse than average. Of course, there is certainly a reasonable chance that Bell is no better than the rest of the Eagles’ quarterbacks, but I prefer to assume his superior numbers (relative to the other Eagles’ quarterbacks) are real rather than variance. The U Mass defense is 0.8 yppl worse than average and the math projects 389 yards at 5.0 yppl for the Eagles in this game, which equates to 22 points when projected turnovers (favors EMU a bit) and special teams (favors U Mass) are factored in.

Overall the math favors Massachusetts by 20 ½ points and the Eagles’ upset win last week sets them up in a negative 9-48-1 ATS subset of a 24-82-1 ATS road dog letdown situation today. Eastern Michigan is also not used to winning and the Eagles have always had a habit of letting down after a rare victory. The Eagles are just 29% ATS in their spread history after a victory, including 2-15 ATS since 2007 and 0-7 ATS recently. That trend has held up through numerous coaches and the Eagles lost 0-65 in week 2 this season after beating Morgan State in their opener. U Mass has covered 5 of their last 6 and I like their chances here given the line value (even with Bell upgrading EMU’s offense by 4 points) and the strong situation against the Eagles. I’ll take Massachusetts in a 3-Star Best Bet at -16 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -17 points.

Syracuse -4
UNDER 58 - Georgia at Arkansas
Stanford -3
UNDER 48 – Clemson at Boston College
UNDER 48 ½ – Missouri at Florida
Miami-Ohio +14

Virginia +3
UNDER 46 – Iowa State at Texas (If I had the ratings I would have posted them!)

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 14, 2014

Maddux Sports

Upgraded to 20* Miami Ohio+14
10* Pittsburgh+3
10* Massachusetts -13

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 16, 2014

Arlon Sports

1* North Texas -11
1* Oklahoma -8
1* New Mexico +11
1* Oregon -21
1* Oklahoma St +8.5
1* LSU -10

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 16, 2014

Chuck Edel

Best Bet California +7

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 16, 2014

Wunderdog Sports

Complimentary CFB Pick for October 18th, 2014

Game: Southern Miss Golden Eagles @ North Texas Mean Green
Time: Saturday 10/18 7:00 PM Eastern
Pick: Southern Miss +9.5 (-110) at Bookmaker

The glory days and a long consecutive Bowl streak went out the door when Coach Larry Fedora moved on. Southern Miss has endured some trying times to say the least. The better news is here we are through six games and the Golden Eagles have already won two games - more than they accomplished the previous two seasons. They have four losses, but Alabama and Miss State are excusable. They are certainly a much improved team, and came within 6 points in their last game at Middle Tennessee of getting to .500. North Texas has two wins as well, but one vs. Nichols State, and the other came vs. SMU who went scoreless for 11 quarters this season already. Their four losses have all been by 3 TDs or more, after being 1-23 the last two years, and Southern Miss is vastly improved, but no one wants to touch them. North Texas is right within their grasp, and taking 10 or so points on the road makes them an under-the-radar live dog here. Grab the points on Southern Miss in this one.

polishrebel · Oct 16, 2014

GMC CFB Selections
324 Maryland -4.5
328 duke -2.5
389 iowa state +12
392 Florida -5.5

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 16, 2014

EZWINNERS

5* (340) Arkansas Razorbacks +4

Georgia is coming off of a huge shutout win over Missouri last week in their first game without their suspended star running back Todd Gurley. The players dedicated the game to Gurley and as teams often do in their first game without their star they rose to the occasion in a big way. Freshmen running back Nick Chubb rushed for 143 yards and the Bulldogs defense forced Missouri into five turnovers. Now the Bulldogs must take to the road for the second straight week as a more then a field goal favorite against an ever improving Arkansas team. The Hogs are 0-3 in SEC play, but in their last two games lost in overtime against A&M and by one point to Alabama. The Arkansas defense held ‘Bama to just ten first downs. Hogs quarterback Brandon Allen is also playing well to compliment

5* (400) Northwestern Wildcats +7

This is a big revenge game for Northwestern who lost to these Huskers last season in Nebraska on a Hail Mary. If the Wildcat defense can do a decent job on Husker running back Ameer Abdullah, which I expect them to do, Northwestern will have a chance at the upset. Nebraska will want to try to establish the run, but their offensive line is still an area of concern. Last week the Wildcat defense held Minnesota running back David Cobb to under 100 yards for the game. Coming into that game Cobb was averaging over 144 yards per game and I expect Northwestern's defense to have another strong effort in this game. I like Northwestern to get it done in their homecoming game. Take the points.

5* (403) Notre Dame Fighting Irish +13.5

The Irish looked past an offensively talented North Carolina team last week with this game against #1 ranked Florida State on tap. I took the generous points last week with the Tar Heels as I faded the Irish in the look ahead spot, but I will back Notre Dame in this game. The Irish have been money in these games as they are 10-4 in their last fourteen games against top ten teams including 4-0 against the spread as a visiting dog since 2012. There are more Jameis Winston distractions this week as FSU investigates his autograph signings so I wanted to jump on this early just in case he sits for this game. Even with Winston in the game, the Irish offense can score enough points to win this game straight up. The FSU defense is allowing 21 points and 359 yards per game and this will be the best offense that they have faced all year. Take the points.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 16, 2014

Trev Rogers:

Western Kentucky/Florida Atlantic OVER 68½ over
New Mexico St/ Idaho OVER 66
Miami (OH)/ Northern Illinois OVER 57
Eastern Michigan/ UMASS OVER 62
Eastern Michigan +16.5

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 17, 2014

Dave Cokin:

317 Miami Ohio +11.5
327 Virginia +3.5
341 San Jose State -1.5
354 Troy -7
376 Boston College +5
377 Kansas State +8
393 Kansas +14.5
403 Notre Dame +12

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 17, 2014

Sheep

$1000:
368 Over 62 Rut-Osu open order*

ryangenero · Oct 17, 2014

Football Jesus : Ariz state + points

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 17, 2014

KEVIN'S PLAYS

Tough OT loss Thursday night with Oregon State.

2 UNIT = Tulane @ Central Florida - [397] TULANE +20 (-106)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.89 units)

2 UNIT = Baylor @ West Virginia - [325] OVER 80 POINTS (-108)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)

2 UNIT = Akron @ Ohio - [319] AKRON -3 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)

2 UNIT = UCLA @ California - [363] UCLA -7 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)

2 UNIT = Clemson @ Boston College - [376] BOSTON COLLEGE +5 (-108)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)

Cheers,
Kevin

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 17, 2014

wayne root

pinnacle arizona state
inner circle boston college

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 17, 2014

SPORTS BETTING PROF

12:00 PM
347. UTSA +12.5*

3:30 PM
352. SMU +13*

8:00 PM
389. Iowa St +12*

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 17, 2014

Topshelfpicks

Carson K

Arkansas +3.5
Northwestern +7

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 17, 2014

Bookiehunter

3* - Cent. Mich. -7.5
2* - W. Ky. @ FAU Over 67
2* - Ga. Tech ML
2* - Kansas + 13.5
2* - Cal. +7
1* - ND +12

AirTroop · Oct 17, 2014

2Halves2Win Week 8 CFB *COMP*:

1* 2-TEAM / TEASER: Baylor -1.5 & UCLA -1 - TBD

BOL if you play it $$$$ !!!

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 17, 2014

victor king aka the dawg pound fla atl

Service Plays Saturday 10/18/14

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