NHL Statistics Thread: Testing something Out

akphidelt · Oct 15, 2014

Alright, been scooping up 5 years of NHL data the past 2 days. And I'm going to use this thread to just list off different statistics. At the end of the day I hope to combine a large amount of statistical analysis to try to get better at betting hockey. Right now, I have all player statistics for the past 5 years, schedules, and days between games.

The one statistic I'm using today is...

Teams on back to back road games where they lost by 5 or more are 8-5-4.

I have -4 because I haven't added OT and shootout information so this is just regulation.

This to me is surprising. So I'm going to take a stab at...

Oilers (+170) $100 to win $170

If you guys have some statistics in mind or some thoughts that you've been looking for, let me know.

indiana · Oct 15, 2014

AKP..........good luck tonight..........indy

akphidelt · Oct 15, 2014

indiana said:
AKP..........good luck tonight..........indy

Thanks Indy!!

akphidelt · Oct 16, 2014

Away teams 12-3 in the last 15 games! Crazy. Has nothing to do with my stats, just an observation.

BoutMyMoney · Oct 16, 2014

Appreciate the effort AK. ...

NHL is a damn coin flip for me

VegasVic · Oct 16, 2014

How about the long term consistent stat for the NHL?

West are 8-3 vs. the east this year.

VegasVic · Oct 17, 2014

Away favs hitting at 80%, (12-3)

tripleh · Oct 17, 2014

So far this season (extremely small sample size, I know):
Road Favorites >120 - 6-1 to the puck line which equates to 9.83 units assuming 1 unit bet on each
Road Favorites of 120 or less - 5 of 7 games have gone into OT/SO (actually played Draw on 3 way in NYI/SJ game last night and won at +280)
Not saying this means anything but interesting anyway

tripleh · Oct 17, 2014

One other 2014 stat:
Home favorites of 161-180 are 1-6 so far this season

akphidelt · Oct 17, 2014

triple h said:
One other 2014 stat:
Home favorites of 161-180 are 1-6 so far this season

Do you know of any place that has past hockey spreads?

akphidelt · Oct 17, 2014

Capping hockey is pretty much the most brutal sport on the heart. Like last nights Blues and Penguins game.

I had the Penguins, they jump up 2-0 in the first 8 minutes then give up 2 goals in the last 3 minutes including one with 3 seconds left.

Then the Blues just absolutely dominated the Kings, had pressure on Quick the entire game, even overtime. But Quick was just amazing. Only 1 goal in the shootout. Pretty much both goalies played great, but damn, I watched the game and the Blues looked like the much better team on the ice.

Just tough to cap.

akphidelt · Oct 18, 2014

Did the painstaking job of loading in all the travel distances and days/time between games. If you have any queries you want me to run let me know.

akphidelt · Oct 20, 2014

Alright, wish I had my laptop yesterday. Sharks and Blues were perfect examples of how travel schedules can affect a team. Both the Sharks and Blues look pathetic last night. Very slow and sluggish. So my stat of the day is...

I don't really know what to do with shoot outs because they simply completely random and based on goalie/player matchups and luck rather than a real statistical reason for a team getting a W or L. Any suggestions would be great.

This is W/L records based on days rest between games. It definitely does show the obvious, that teams after 0 days of rest do struggle. The money spot is the 2-3 rest. Keep in mind some of these can include two results from the same game which I'll have to figure out how to show it based on days rest against opponent days rest. So if both teams are coming off 0 days rest, 1 gets a W, the other gets a L, or there are 2 shootouts.

Days Rest	W-L-SO
0	857-1004-308
1	2683-2599-845
2	905-828-314
3	256-246-74
4	64-85-19
5	23-19-10
6	15-16-12

akphidelt · Oct 20, 2014

Here's the away team record on back to back games.

Days Rest	W-L-SO
0	513-730-209
1	1087-1381-385
2	364-427-144
3	104-110-31
4	24-35-12
5	12-8-5
6	7-9-6

akphidelt · Oct 20, 2014

Looking at the lineups, this Edmonton team is a combined -304 +/- on the ice when playing for Edmonton. TB definitely has the edge in skill. 2nd game of a 5 game Canada road trip. If anything, tomorrow should be the let down game against Calgary. Think TB is fresh and ready to rumble.

Tampa Bay 3-Way (-120) $240 to win $200

GL!!!

rowdyroddy · Oct 20, 2014

GL with your data gathering - betting against Oilers, Sabres and Jets may be good simple formula this year

NHL Statistics Thread: Testing something Out

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