[h=1]How Vegas experts view NYJ-NE[/h][h=3]Line analysis and ATS picks from handicappers on Thursday night's game[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Evan Abrams[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
After four weeks this season, the New England Patriots were 2-2 with losses on the road to theKansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins and wins against the lowly Oakland Raiders andMinnesota Vikings. A 27-point road loss to Kansas City seemed like it could signal the end of the era of regular-season dominance for Bill Belichick & Co. Not exactly. New England has now won two straight games, against the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills, by a combined 41 points to regain control of the AFC East.
New England has won nine straight games at home against AFC East opponents, with its last loss coming in the playoffs in 2010 against Thursday's opponent, the New York Jets. In the past 10 years, Tom Brady is 20-2 straight up, but just 9-13 against the spread of seven or more as a home favorite against the AFC East. Brady's only two SU losses have come against the Jets.
If the Jets are going to stay in this game, Geno Smith will need to improve his performance on first down. Since the beginning of last season, Smith has the most turnovers of all NFL QBs (15) on first down and the worst completion percentage, at 54.7 percent. For a comparison,Philip Rivers has 15 total turnovers since the beginning of last season.
Since winning their first game of the season against the Raiders, the Jets are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS, having played against Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Rivers and Peyton Manning.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is currently backing the Patriots at a clip of 66 percent at the line of New England minus-10.
Let's get some analysis of the line from Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, and an ATS pick on the game from four wise guys:
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"The total opened 46 and has dropped to 45."
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</center>[h=3]ATS picks[/h]Wunderdog says: "Once the Patriots' offense gets in motion, it tends to stay in motion, as they are 70-31-2 ATS in their past 103 games when following a game in which they gained over 350 total yards. In the Belichick era, the Patriots are 62-41 ATS as a favorite in the 3.5- to 9.5-point range, 54-35 ATS in division games and 43-30 ATS against teams with losing records. With the Pats averaging 30 points per game at home, and the Jets averaging just 12 on the road, this big number is one that New England should be able to cover. Take the Patriots minus the points at minus-9.5 or less."
ATS Pick: New England (if you can get minus-9.5 or less)
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</center>Maddux Sports says: "The Jets are the classic hold-your-nose-and-play-it side this week. They have looked dreadful the past couple weeks, while the Patriots look to be back on track after blowout wins over Cincinnati and Buffalo. The Jets haven't covered a point spread this season -- Week 2 against Green Bay closed as a 7-point underdog, although early bettors won -- and Geno is throwing pick-sixes like they are going out of style. My numbers make this New England minus-8, and the Jets qualify in a number of good contrarian situations. I bet Jets at plus-10, and that is the side I would be looking to back in this one."
ATS Pick: Jets (if you can get 10 points or more)
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</center>Erin Rynning says: "Look for the Jets to try and rejuvenate the ground-and-pound attack head coach Rex Ryan clearly likes to employ. Of course, a ground game that can garner consistent yardage would take some pressure off the embattled quarterback Geno Smith. In addition, a game plan heavy on running would attack the Patriots' front seven after their loss of linebacker Jerod Mayo, while also keeping the ball away from a Patriots offense picking up steam. Finally, with a forecast of heavy rain in Foxborough Thursday night, both teams will keep a simple offensive game plan, so this one should go under the total."
ATS Pick: Under (44.5)
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</center>Dave Tuley says: "As this line climbs towards double digits, I would normally be tempted to take the big underdog, but I'm not going to make the same mistake that I did last weekend when I took New York against Denver after it went to plus-10. Yes, they should have covered, and it took the late pick-six for me to lose, but I can see that happening again. Besides, on the short week, I don't see Belichick taking his foot off the gas if New England gets ahead. As for the over/under, this has been getting bet down so far this week, but overs are 5-1 on Thursday nights so far this season and 15-4 in all NFL prime-time games, so I think it's best to ride that until it ends. The Jets will likely have to open it up to try and keep with the Patriots (and a pick-six actually helps us in this case!)."
ATS Pick: Over (44.5)
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Evan Abrams[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
After four weeks this season, the New England Patriots were 2-2 with losses on the road to theKansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins and wins against the lowly Oakland Raiders andMinnesota Vikings. A 27-point road loss to Kansas City seemed like it could signal the end of the era of regular-season dominance for Bill Belichick & Co. Not exactly. New England has now won two straight games, against the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills, by a combined 41 points to regain control of the AFC East.
New England has won nine straight games at home against AFC East opponents, with its last loss coming in the playoffs in 2010 against Thursday's opponent, the New York Jets. In the past 10 years, Tom Brady is 20-2 straight up, but just 9-13 against the spread of seven or more as a home favorite against the AFC East. Brady's only two SU losses have come against the Jets.
If the Jets are going to stay in this game, Geno Smith will need to improve his performance on first down. Since the beginning of last season, Smith has the most turnovers of all NFL QBs (15) on first down and the worst completion percentage, at 54.7 percent. For a comparison,Philip Rivers has 15 total turnovers since the beginning of last season.
Since winning their first game of the season against the Raiders, the Jets are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS, having played against Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Rivers and Peyton Manning.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is currently backing the Patriots at a clip of 66 percent at the line of New England minus-10.
Let's get some analysis of the line from Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, and an ATS pick on the game from four wise guys:
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[h=3]Matchup: New York Jets at New England Patriots[/h]Spread: Opened New England minus-8.5; now New England minus-9.5
Total: Opened 46; now 45
Jay Kornegay says: "We opened <offer>New England minus-8.5 last Sunday, and it was quickly bet up to 9. Monday morning, more Patriots money came in early, pushing the line up to 9.5. Since then, this line has steadied and hasn't moved since early Monday. The public will certainly support New England, and I'm not sure the sharps are that interested in New York unless it goes to the high side of 10. This line will probably close Patriots minus-10.</offer>Total: Opened 46; now 45
"The total opened 46 and has dropped to 45."
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</center>[h=3]ATS picks[/h]Wunderdog says: "Once the Patriots' offense gets in motion, it tends to stay in motion, as they are 70-31-2 ATS in their past 103 games when following a game in which they gained over 350 total yards. In the Belichick era, the Patriots are 62-41 ATS as a favorite in the 3.5- to 9.5-point range, 54-35 ATS in division games and 43-30 ATS against teams with losing records. With the Pats averaging 30 points per game at home, and the Jets averaging just 12 on the road, this big number is one that New England should be able to cover. Take the Patriots minus the points at minus-9.5 or less."
ATS Pick: New England (if you can get minus-9.5 or less)
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</center>Maddux Sports says: "The Jets are the classic hold-your-nose-and-play-it side this week. They have looked dreadful the past couple weeks, while the Patriots look to be back on track after blowout wins over Cincinnati and Buffalo. The Jets haven't covered a point spread this season -- Week 2 against Green Bay closed as a 7-point underdog, although early bettors won -- and Geno is throwing pick-sixes like they are going out of style. My numbers make this New England minus-8, and the Jets qualify in a number of good contrarian situations. I bet Jets at plus-10, and that is the side I would be looking to back in this one."
ATS Pick: Jets (if you can get 10 points or more)
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</center>Erin Rynning says: "Look for the Jets to try and rejuvenate the ground-and-pound attack head coach Rex Ryan clearly likes to employ. Of course, a ground game that can garner consistent yardage would take some pressure off the embattled quarterback Geno Smith. In addition, a game plan heavy on running would attack the Patriots' front seven after their loss of linebacker Jerod Mayo, while also keeping the ball away from a Patriots offense picking up steam. Finally, with a forecast of heavy rain in Foxborough Thursday night, both teams will keep a simple offensive game plan, so this one should go under the total."
ATS Pick: Under (44.5)
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</center>Dave Tuley says: "As this line climbs towards double digits, I would normally be tempted to take the big underdog, but I'm not going to make the same mistake that I did last weekend when I took New York against Denver after it went to plus-10. Yes, they should have covered, and it took the late pick-six for me to lose, but I can see that happening again. Besides, on the short week, I don't see Belichick taking his foot off the gas if New England gets ahead. As for the over/under, this has been getting bet down so far this week, but overs are 5-1 on Thursday nights so far this season and 15-4 in all NFL prime-time games, so I think it's best to ride that until it ends. The Jets will likely have to open it up to try and keep with the Patriots (and a pick-six actually helps us in this case!)."
ATS Pick: Over (44.5)
