[h=1]Early Week 8 NFL line moves[/h][h=3]Analyzing point-spread changes, plus biggest Week 7 NFL gambling takeaways[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Dave Tuley[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Sunday's early NFL games fell into two categories: blowouts or games that came down to the wire and were decided by 1 or 2 points.
We've seen a lot of games this year with big comebacks -- except, it seems, in games when the team I'm backing is trailing (but that's a column for another day).
Indianapolis thoroughly dominated Cincinnati 27-0 as a 3.5-point home favorite; Green Bay routed Carolina 38-17 as a 6.5-point home favorite; Baltimore blew out Atlanta 29-7 as a 6.5-point home favorite; Miami jumped out to 14-0 lead over Chicago and coasted to a 27-14 win as a 3-point road underdog; and even Jacksonville pulled away 24-6 over Cleveland as a 4.5-point home 'dog.
The big upset of the day was St. Louis -- with the help of special-teams trickery -- holding off defending champ Seattle 28-26 after closing as a consensus 7-point home underdog and plus-260 on the money line. Although the Seahawks' comeback came up short, Detroit, Buffalo and Washington all rallied for victories, but all three failed to cover as home favorites.
The late afternoon and night games followed the trend as Dallas and Arizona covered in relatively easy victories while Kansas City outlasted San Diego 23-20 as a 3-point road dog in the only barn burner the rest of the day. Denver routed San Francisco 42-17 as a 6.5-point favorite in the nightcap.
Let's see how all this affected the lines for next weekend, including how the blowouts tend to cause the oddsmakers to adjust their lines more but close games usually keep things closer to the status quo.
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</center>[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posts its NFL openers at 4:30 p.m. PT each Sunday. This is the section where we will note which games are off the board because of injuries (note: The SuperBook usually posts the games involving the teams involved in Sunday and Monday night games, although most books hold off on those), but this week they posted lines for all 15 games.
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</center>[h=3]Early Week 8 line moves[/h]Here are the openers from the Westgate SuperBook. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including a look at the advance lines for Week 8 that were put up Tuesday, Oct. 14, where the offshore openers might have differed and how the lines moved in early betting Sunday afternoon. Although the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wager to get the best number, so we'll try to point out which numbers are most likely to move during the week.
Thursday: Chargers at Broncos (-7): The Westgate advance line last week was Denver minus-6.5 and was reopened at minus-7 after San Diego lost 23-20 to Kansas City. With the Broncos blowing out the 49ers 42-17 on national TV Sunday night, that pretty much guarantees we won't see that 6.5 again. In fact, as more books were putting the line up Monday morning, 7.5 was looking more likely.<offer></offer>
[h=4]Week 8 SuperBook openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Chargers
Broncos -7
Lions -4
Falcons (at London)
Vikings
Buccaneers -2 (-2.5)
Bears
Patriots -7
Rams
Chiefs -6
Seahawks -3.5
Panthers
Bills
Jets -2.5 (-3 EV)
Dolphins -4.5
Jaguars
Texans -1
Titans
Ravens
Bengals -3 (-3 EV)
Eagles
Cardinals -2.5
Colts -2.5
Steelers
Raiders
Browns -7
Packers -1.5 (+1)
Saints
Redskins
Cowboys -8 (-9)
Note: Number in parentheses is what the line was bet to by the start of the Sunday night game (when the lines for the 49ers' and Broncos' next games were taken off the board)
Lions (-4) versus Falcons (at London): The advance line was Detroit minus-3.5 and offshore giant Pinnacle opened with that Sunday night, so it looks more likely to drop there than to go higher.Vikings at Buccaneers (-2): This was pick 'em last week, and even though Minnesota covered in its 17-16 loss at Buffalo, this reopened at Tampa minus-2 and was bet to 2.5 in the first hour of betting. That wasn't surprising, as William Hill opened it at Buffalo minus-3 (even). In fact, offshore books had a mix of what I call "2.5/3" which is where the books at 2.5 and 3 have added juice for those betting it toward the other number. It could be doing that all week.
Bears at Patriots (-7): The advance line was New England minus-6.5 and adjusted to 7 after Chicago's 27-14 loss to Miami but bet back down to 6.5 in early betting. This looks as if it could be 6.5/7.
Rams at Chiefs (-6): The advance line was KC minus-6.5 and adjusted to 6 after both teams pulled upsets Sunday. Most other books also opened at 6, although Wynn Las Vegas went with 6.5, and, as of late Sunday night, some of the other books were dealing minus-6 with added juice. It looks as if 6.5 might be where this is headed.
Seahawks (-3.5) at Panthers: This was 3.5 last week and was reposted there after both teams lost Sunday, but early betting saw it get to Seattle minus-4 at the Westgate and offshore books.
Bills at Jets (-2.5): The Westgate advance line was pick 'em but reopened at New York minus-2.5. William Hill went with minus-3 (even), and that's where the Westgate line was bet to early Sunday night. This looks as if it will remain 2.5/3, although minus-3 (even) looks as if it will be the more common number.
Dolphins (-4.5) at Jaguars: This was 4.5 last week and stayed there after both teams pulled upsets Sunday. William Hill and Wynn both went with 5, so it looks more likely to move there as opposed to dropping to 4.
Texans (-1) at Titans: The advance line was Houston minus-1.5 and dipped to 1 after Tennessee's spread-covering 19-17 loss at Washington on Sunday. This line will be adjusted depending on what happens in the Texans' Monday nighter at Pittsburgh.
Ravens at Bengals (-3): The advance line was Cincinnati minus-3.5, but it dropped to 3 with these two teams appearing to be headed in opposite directions. Early money showed on Baltimore, and the Westgate went to Bengals minus-3 (even), meaning added juice on the Ravens plus-3. William Hill went with minus-2.5 with Wynn at 3 (even), so it really looks like 2.5/3, with 2.5 looking more common.
Eagles at Cardinals (-2.5): The advance line was Arizona minus-2.5, and it reopened there, although the Wynn and some offshore opted for minus-3. This also looks like 2.5/3 with 2.5 more common.
Colts (-2.5) at Steelers: Indy was minus-1.5 on the advance line and reopened at 2.5 after its 27-0 rout of Cincinnati and bet to minus-3 (even). This will be affected by Pittsburgh's performance Monday night. A close game probably keeps it at 2.5/3. A big loss by Pittsburgh almost assuredly moves it to a solid 3. An impressive win probably moves it back toward the advance line.
Raiders at Browns (-7): The advance line was 7. After both teams lost Sunday, it reopened at 7, and that's where it opened across the board. A few books have added juice on the plus-7, so it's more likely to go to 6.5 instead of 7.5.
Packers (-1.5) at Saints: This is the most interesting line of the week (and the chart to the right might look confusing at first). The advance line was pick 'em. After Green Bay's 38-17 rout of Carolina and New Orleans' spread-covering 24-23 loss at Detroit, the Westgate reposted it at Packers minus-1.5, but the Wynn went with Saints minus-1 and William Hill opened Saints minus-1. It was also all over the map offshore, with the Greek opening Packers minus-1, CRIS at Saints minus-2 and Pinnacle at pick 'em. The Westgate went to Saints minus-1 later Sunday night, but, the way this is bouncing back and forth, it's the most likely game to close at pick 'em this week.
Monday: Redskins at Cowboys (-8): The advance line was Dallas minus-8 and reopened there after Sunday's action, but it was bet quickly to 9. CRIS and Pinnacle both opened with Cowboys minus-7.5, and those also were bet higher. By the end of Sunday night, this was looking as if it's headed for 9.5/10.
Last week, we wrote about how San Diego was the last team to lose against the spread (and that's why this segment was labeled "No one's perfect." This week, there's now no winless ATS team as the New York Jets covered for the first time as 9.5-point underdogs in their 27-25 loss at New England on Thursday night (note: Some people recall the Jets covering in Week 2 at Green Bay, but we graded their 31-24 loss as a push as the line closed as a consensus Packers minus-7).
In fact, the bottom five teams in the NFL ATS Standings last week all covered this week. TheJacksonville Jaguars (who were the only winless SU team entering Week 7) beat Cleveland 24-6 as 4.5-point home underdogs, and the St. Louis Rams beat Seattle 28-26 as 7-point home 'dogs, and the New Orleans Saints and Tennessee Titans both covered despite losing their games to the Detroit Lions and Washington Redskins, respectively.
Who's hot, who's not
The Indianapolis Colts can continue to claim they're the hottest team in the league with five straight point-spread covers as they top the NFL ATS Standings at 6-1 ATS after their 27-0 shutout of Cincinnati. Kansas City isn't too far behind at 4-1-1 ATS, and Dallas and Baltimore are 5-2 ATS as the only other teams in the league over 70 percent. Other hot teams are Green Bay, which is 4-2-1 ATS after its fourth straight cover Sunday, and Denver is just 3-3 ATS but has covered three in a row.
On the other end of the spectrum, Atlanta and Washington have both failed to cover four straight games (and both drop to 2-5 ATS). The Bengals started the season 3-0 ATS, but haven't won in three straight games as they dropped to 3-3 ATS.
In totals wagering, the most popular teams with high-powered offenses have moved to the forefront with overs. The Packers are now the top team at 6-1 to the over after exceeding the betting total in their third straight game. The Saints are 5-1 with the over, and the Patriots, Panthers and Colts are 5-2 (the Broncos are 4-2 after three straight overs). The Bills are the top under team at 6-1, with the Lions, Vikings and Titans as the only other teams over 70 percent with the under, at 5-2.
Some teams can overcome injuries
Injuries are a big part of every NFL season. It's very often that teams that stay relatively healthy end up having successful seasons, while teams with losing seasons almost always use injuries as their first excuse. But teams have to go out there every week with the players who are available, and some end up doing better at adjusting than others. The Lions are off to a 5-2 SU start, and they're doing it without star receiver Calvin Johnson, mostly thanks to a defense that kept them in their game against New Orleans before they rallied with two fourth-quarter TDs to win 24-23 (although they didn't cover).
On the other hand, the Bengals have lost two straight and failed to cover three in a row while playing without their star receiver, A.J. Green. It would be easy to add San Francisco to the list of teams that didn't overcome injuries this week, as the 49ers were blown out 42-17 by Denver on Sunday night, but it was Peyton Manning's night, so I don't downgrade the 49ers too much as they were playing without suspended Aldon Smith and injured NaVorro Bowman, Patrick Willis and others. They will be better as they get those players back, and don't forget that their recent wins over Kansas City and St. Louis look better as the Chiefs and Rams upset the Chargers and Seahawks on Sunday.
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By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Dave Tuley[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Sunday's early NFL games fell into two categories: blowouts or games that came down to the wire and were decided by 1 or 2 points.
We've seen a lot of games this year with big comebacks -- except, it seems, in games when the team I'm backing is trailing (but that's a column for another day).
Indianapolis thoroughly dominated Cincinnati 27-0 as a 3.5-point home favorite; Green Bay routed Carolina 38-17 as a 6.5-point home favorite; Baltimore blew out Atlanta 29-7 as a 6.5-point home favorite; Miami jumped out to 14-0 lead over Chicago and coasted to a 27-14 win as a 3-point road underdog; and even Jacksonville pulled away 24-6 over Cleveland as a 4.5-point home 'dog.
The big upset of the day was St. Louis -- with the help of special-teams trickery -- holding off defending champ Seattle 28-26 after closing as a consensus 7-point home underdog and plus-260 on the money line. Although the Seahawks' comeback came up short, Detroit, Buffalo and Washington all rallied for victories, but all three failed to cover as home favorites.
The late afternoon and night games followed the trend as Dallas and Arizona covered in relatively easy victories while Kansas City outlasted San Diego 23-20 as a 3-point road dog in the only barn burner the rest of the day. Denver routed San Francisco 42-17 as a 6.5-point favorite in the nightcap.
Let's see how all this affected the lines for next weekend, including how the blowouts tend to cause the oddsmakers to adjust their lines more but close games usually keep things closer to the status quo.
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</center>[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posts its NFL openers at 4:30 p.m. PT each Sunday. This is the section where we will note which games are off the board because of injuries (note: The SuperBook usually posts the games involving the teams involved in Sunday and Monday night games, although most books hold off on those), but this week they posted lines for all 15 games.
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</center>[h=3]Early Week 8 line moves[/h]Here are the openers from the Westgate SuperBook. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including a look at the advance lines for Week 8 that were put up Tuesday, Oct. 14, where the offshore openers might have differed and how the lines moved in early betting Sunday afternoon. Although the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wager to get the best number, so we'll try to point out which numbers are most likely to move during the week.
Thursday: Chargers at Broncos (-7): The Westgate advance line last week was Denver minus-6.5 and was reopened at minus-7 after San Diego lost 23-20 to Kansas City. With the Broncos blowing out the 49ers 42-17 on national TV Sunday night, that pretty much guarantees we won't see that 6.5 again. In fact, as more books were putting the line up Monday morning, 7.5 was looking more likely.<offer></offer>
[h=4]Week 8 SuperBook openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Chargers
Broncos -7
Lions -4
Falcons (at London)
Vikings
Buccaneers -2 (-2.5)
Bears
Patriots -7
Rams
Chiefs -6
Seahawks -3.5
Panthers
Bills
Jets -2.5 (-3 EV)
Dolphins -4.5
Jaguars
Texans -1
Titans
Ravens
Bengals -3 (-3 EV)
Eagles
Cardinals -2.5
Colts -2.5
Steelers
Raiders
Browns -7
Packers -1.5 (+1)
Saints
Redskins
Cowboys -8 (-9)
Note: Number in parentheses is what the line was bet to by the start of the Sunday night game (when the lines for the 49ers' and Broncos' next games were taken off the board)
Lions (-4) versus Falcons (at London): The advance line was Detroit minus-3.5 and offshore giant Pinnacle opened with that Sunday night, so it looks more likely to drop there than to go higher.Vikings at Buccaneers (-2): This was pick 'em last week, and even though Minnesota covered in its 17-16 loss at Buffalo, this reopened at Tampa minus-2 and was bet to 2.5 in the first hour of betting. That wasn't surprising, as William Hill opened it at Buffalo minus-3 (even). In fact, offshore books had a mix of what I call "2.5/3" which is where the books at 2.5 and 3 have added juice for those betting it toward the other number. It could be doing that all week.
Bears at Patriots (-7): The advance line was New England minus-6.5 and adjusted to 7 after Chicago's 27-14 loss to Miami but bet back down to 6.5 in early betting. This looks as if it could be 6.5/7.
Rams at Chiefs (-6): The advance line was KC minus-6.5 and adjusted to 6 after both teams pulled upsets Sunday. Most other books also opened at 6, although Wynn Las Vegas went with 6.5, and, as of late Sunday night, some of the other books were dealing minus-6 with added juice. It looks as if 6.5 might be where this is headed.
Seahawks (-3.5) at Panthers: This was 3.5 last week and was reposted there after both teams lost Sunday, but early betting saw it get to Seattle minus-4 at the Westgate and offshore books.
Bills at Jets (-2.5): The Westgate advance line was pick 'em but reopened at New York minus-2.5. William Hill went with minus-3 (even), and that's where the Westgate line was bet to early Sunday night. This looks as if it will remain 2.5/3, although minus-3 (even) looks as if it will be the more common number.
Dolphins (-4.5) at Jaguars: This was 4.5 last week and stayed there after both teams pulled upsets Sunday. William Hill and Wynn both went with 5, so it looks more likely to move there as opposed to dropping to 4.
Texans (-1) at Titans: The advance line was Houston minus-1.5 and dipped to 1 after Tennessee's spread-covering 19-17 loss at Washington on Sunday. This line will be adjusted depending on what happens in the Texans' Monday nighter at Pittsburgh.
Ravens at Bengals (-3): The advance line was Cincinnati minus-3.5, but it dropped to 3 with these two teams appearing to be headed in opposite directions. Early money showed on Baltimore, and the Westgate went to Bengals minus-3 (even), meaning added juice on the Ravens plus-3. William Hill went with minus-2.5 with Wynn at 3 (even), so it really looks like 2.5/3, with 2.5 looking more common.
Eagles at Cardinals (-2.5): The advance line was Arizona minus-2.5, and it reopened there, although the Wynn and some offshore opted for minus-3. This also looks like 2.5/3 with 2.5 more common.
Colts (-2.5) at Steelers: Indy was minus-1.5 on the advance line and reopened at 2.5 after its 27-0 rout of Cincinnati and bet to minus-3 (even). This will be affected by Pittsburgh's performance Monday night. A close game probably keeps it at 2.5/3. A big loss by Pittsburgh almost assuredly moves it to a solid 3. An impressive win probably moves it back toward the advance line.
Raiders at Browns (-7): The advance line was 7. After both teams lost Sunday, it reopened at 7, and that's where it opened across the board. A few books have added juice on the plus-7, so it's more likely to go to 6.5 instead of 7.5.
Packers (-1.5) at Saints: This is the most interesting line of the week (and the chart to the right might look confusing at first). The advance line was pick 'em. After Green Bay's 38-17 rout of Carolina and New Orleans' spread-covering 24-23 loss at Detroit, the Westgate reposted it at Packers minus-1.5, but the Wynn went with Saints minus-1 and William Hill opened Saints minus-1. It was also all over the map offshore, with the Greek opening Packers minus-1, CRIS at Saints minus-2 and Pinnacle at pick 'em. The Westgate went to Saints minus-1 later Sunday night, but, the way this is bouncing back and forth, it's the most likely game to close at pick 'em this week.
Monday: Redskins at Cowboys (-8): The advance line was Dallas minus-8 and reopened there after Sunday's action, but it was bet quickly to 9. CRIS and Pinnacle both opened with Cowboys minus-7.5, and those also were bet higher. By the end of Sunday night, this was looking as if it's headed for 9.5/10.
[h=3]Tuley's Takeaways from Week 7[/h]No one's un-perfectLast week, we wrote about how San Diego was the last team to lose against the spread (and that's why this segment was labeled "No one's perfect." This week, there's now no winless ATS team as the New York Jets covered for the first time as 9.5-point underdogs in their 27-25 loss at New England on Thursday night (note: Some people recall the Jets covering in Week 2 at Green Bay, but we graded their 31-24 loss as a push as the line closed as a consensus Packers minus-7).
In fact, the bottom five teams in the NFL ATS Standings last week all covered this week. TheJacksonville Jaguars (who were the only winless SU team entering Week 7) beat Cleveland 24-6 as 4.5-point home underdogs, and the St. Louis Rams beat Seattle 28-26 as 7-point home 'dogs, and the New Orleans Saints and Tennessee Titans both covered despite losing their games to the Detroit Lions and Washington Redskins, respectively.
Who's hot, who's not
The Indianapolis Colts can continue to claim they're the hottest team in the league with five straight point-spread covers as they top the NFL ATS Standings at 6-1 ATS after their 27-0 shutout of Cincinnati. Kansas City isn't too far behind at 4-1-1 ATS, and Dallas and Baltimore are 5-2 ATS as the only other teams in the league over 70 percent. Other hot teams are Green Bay, which is 4-2-1 ATS after its fourth straight cover Sunday, and Denver is just 3-3 ATS but has covered three in a row.
On the other end of the spectrum, Atlanta and Washington have both failed to cover four straight games (and both drop to 2-5 ATS). The Bengals started the season 3-0 ATS, but haven't won in three straight games as they dropped to 3-3 ATS.
In totals wagering, the most popular teams with high-powered offenses have moved to the forefront with overs. The Packers are now the top team at 6-1 to the over after exceeding the betting total in their third straight game. The Saints are 5-1 with the over, and the Patriots, Panthers and Colts are 5-2 (the Broncos are 4-2 after three straight overs). The Bills are the top under team at 6-1, with the Lions, Vikings and Titans as the only other teams over 70 percent with the under, at 5-2.
Some teams can overcome injuries
Injuries are a big part of every NFL season. It's very often that teams that stay relatively healthy end up having successful seasons, while teams with losing seasons almost always use injuries as their first excuse. But teams have to go out there every week with the players who are available, and some end up doing better at adjusting than others. The Lions are off to a 5-2 SU start, and they're doing it without star receiver Calvin Johnson, mostly thanks to a defense that kept them in their game against New Orleans before they rallied with two fourth-quarter TDs to win 24-23 (although they didn't cover).
On the other hand, the Bengals have lost two straight and failed to cover three in a row while playing without their star receiver, A.J. Green. It would be easy to add San Francisco to the list of teams that didn't overcome injuries this week, as the 49ers were blown out 42-17 by Denver on Sunday night, but it was Peyton Manning's night, so I don't downgrade the 49ers too much as they were playing without suspended Aldon Smith and injured NaVorro Bowman, Patrick Willis and others. They will be better as they get those players back, and don't forget that their recent wins over Kansas City and St. Louis look better as the Chiefs and Rams upset the Chargers and Seahawks on Sunday.
[h=3]NFL ATS Standings[/h][h=4]2014 NFL ATS Standings[/h]| Team (SU record) | ATS | Streak | O/U | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtesy ViewFromVegas.com. All records based on VFV consensus closing lines. Teams listed by ATS winning percentage, with first tiebreaker being straight-up record, then ATS streak. O=over, U=under, P=push | ||||
| Indianapolis Colts (5-2) | 6-1 | W5 | 5-2 | U1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) | 4-1-1 | W1 | 2-4 | U2 |
| Dallas Cowboys (6-1) | 5-2 | W2 | 4-3 | O2 |
| Baltimore Ravens (5-2) | 5-2 | W2 | 3-4 | U1 |
| San Diego Chargers (5-2) | 5-2 | L2 | 3-4 | U1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) | 4-2 | W2 | 4-2 | U1 |
| Arizona Cardinals (5-1) | 4-2 | W2 | 2-4 | U1 |
| Green Bay Packers (5-2) | 4-2-1 | W4 | 6-1 | O3 |
| Houston Texans (3-3) | 4-2 | L1 | 3-3 | O1 |
| Cleveland Browns (3-3) | 3-2-1 | L1 | 4-2 | U2 |
| Detroit Lions (5-2) | 4-3 | L1 | 2-5 | O1 |
| Carolina Panthers (3-3-1) | 4-3 | L1 | 5-2 | O5 |
| Denver Broncos (5-1) | 3-3 | W1 | 4-2 | O3 |
| Cincinnati Bengals (3-2-1) | 3-3 | L3 | 2-4 | U1 |
| San Francisco 49ers (4-3) | 3-3-1 | L1 | 4-3 | O2 |
| Miami Dolphins (3-3) | 3-3 | W1 | 4-2 | U1 |
| Seattle Seahawks (3-3) | 3-3 | L2 | 4-2 | O2 |
| Oakland Raiders (0-6) | 3-3 | L1 | 3-3 | U1 |
| New England Patriots (5-2) | 3-4 | L1 | 5-2 | O4 |
| Buffalo Bills (4-3) | 3-4 | L2 | 1-6 | U1 |
| Chicago Bears (3-4) | 3-4 | L1 | 4-3 | U2 |
| New York Giants (3-4) | 3-4 | L2 | 4-3 | O1 |
| Minnesota Vikings (2-5) | 3-4 | W1 | 2-5 | U2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) | 2-4 | L1 | 3-3 | U2 |
| New Orleans Saints (2-4) | 2-4 | W1 | 5-1 | O3 |
| St. Louis Rams (2-4) | 2-4 | W1 | 4-2 | O4 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5) | 2-4 | L1 | 4-2 | O4 |
| Tennessee Titans (2-5) | 2-5 | W1 | 2-5 | U2 |
| Atlanta Falcons (2-5) | 2-5 | L4 | 3-4 | U3 |
| Washington Redskins (2-5) | 2-5 | L4 | 4-3 | U1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) | 2-5 | W2 | 4-3 | U3 |
| New York Jets (1-6) | 1-5-1 | W1 | 4-3 | O2 |
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