[h=1]Best NBA season win total bets[/h][h=3]How Kevin Durant's injury changes the market, plus best win total plays[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Dave Tuley[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- The NBA over/under win totals opened Sept. 30 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and most of the early moves were by a half-game here or there. Nothing to write home about.
But then Oklahoma City's Kevin Durant got hurt.
Durant, the NBA's reigning MVP and scoring champ, complained of an aching right foot after practice on Saturday, then came the diagnosis that he had a Jones fracture/stress fracture and is expected to miss six to eight weeks.
"After hearing the news, we lowered the Oklahoma City over/under win total from 58 to 54.5," said Westgate sportsbook boss Jay Kornegay. "Durant is expected to miss about 20 games, but Oklahoma City is still going to be favored in most of those games."
A lot of people will be eyeing if Durant will be able to return by Dec. 11, when Oklahoma City hosts LeBron James and the Cavaliers. Early projections would have him definitely back by OKC's trip to their main Western Conference rival San Antonio on Christmas Day.
In the Westgate openers, the Thunder's win total was projected at 57.5 and early bettors took the over and bet it to 58, second only to the Cleveland Cavaliers' 58.5. After the adjustment to 54.5, the first bets came in on the under, and it has since settled in at 54, which is still fifth in the league; the Thunder dropped below the San Antonio Spurs(57), Los Angeles Clippers (56) and Chicago Bulls(55.5).
As for its other odds, Oklahoma City<offer> went from minus-400 to win the Northwest Division to minus-350, its odds to win the West were raised from plus-180 to plus-225 (while the Spurs were lowered from plus-160 to plus-150) and its odds to win the NBA Finals were raised from 4-1 to 9-2. Cleveland remains the 5-2 favorite to win it all in James' first year back home, while San Antonio is now the clear second choice at 3-1 at the Westgate after being 7-2 last week.</offer>
Durant's injury wasn't the only one in the NBA this weekend. Washington's Bradley Beal left his team's Friday night exhibition game at Charlotte with what was believed to be a sprained left wrist, but the wrist ended up being fractured. He is also expected to be out six to eight weeks. The Wizards' over/under win total was lowered from 49.5 to 48 and has since been bet back up to 48.5. Their odds of 11-1 to win the Eastern Conference and 25-1 to win the NBA Finals remained unchanged.
As for whether or not either of these updates offer any betting value, I really don't think so.
If Oklahoma City's win total had been lowered drastically, I might have considered a play on the over -- but Kornegay and his staff know what they're doing. The Thunder do have a lot of depth (though obviously no one has a Durant on their bench) and barring any more serious injuries to their stars, they should still end up in the mid- to upper 50s in wins. If anything, maybe the bump up to plus-225 to win the West or 9-2 to win the NBA title makes them worth a look, though the lasting impact of Durant's injury could come if the few losses they suffer in his absence end up having them fall behind the Spurs and/or Clippers for home-court advantage if/when those teams meet in the playoffs.
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</center>Here's a look at the best over and under bets that I see on the board as the season approaches:
[h=3]New York Knicks over 40.5 wins[/h]With all this injury talk, it's important to point out that this recommendation is contingent on Amar'e Stoudemire's staying healthy. If he does, the Knicks should at least be a .500 team, which is only what it takes to cash this over. Carmelo Anthony is starting the season as a small forward, which should help him because he won't get worn out on the defensive end and should be able to concentrate more on what he does best: score. Jose Calderon, acquired in a trade with Dallas, should be an upgrade at the point overRaymond Felton. There are concerns about the lack of a dominant center, but general manager Phil Jackson has worked around that before and, although he's not the coach, his presence should be felt through hand-picked coach Derek Fisher.
[h=3]Minnesota Timberwolves under 27.5[/h]Minnesota wavered around .500 all last season, and that was with Kevin Lovestaying healthy and flashing his great offensive game that made him so coveted by Cleveland. The Wolves acquired potential superstar rookie Andrew Wiggins, but the short-term prospects aren't so bright. They weren't a very good defensive team last year (26th in points allowed at 104.3) and all their top players are more offensive-minded without a stopper in the mix (Love's departure also hurts them in the rebounding department). That doesn't help in facing the deep Western Conference, and they'll be hard-pressed to pull more than a few upsets against the top teams, which leaves them needing to win a much higher percentage against the other also-rans.
[h=4]NBA over/under win totals[/h]Courtesy: Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
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By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Dave Tuley[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- The NBA over/under win totals opened Sept. 30 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and most of the early moves were by a half-game here or there. Nothing to write home about.
But then Oklahoma City's Kevin Durant got hurt.
Durant, the NBA's reigning MVP and scoring champ, complained of an aching right foot after practice on Saturday, then came the diagnosis that he had a Jones fracture/stress fracture and is expected to miss six to eight weeks.
"After hearing the news, we lowered the Oklahoma City over/under win total from 58 to 54.5," said Westgate sportsbook boss Jay Kornegay. "Durant is expected to miss about 20 games, but Oklahoma City is still going to be favored in most of those games."
A lot of people will be eyeing if Durant will be able to return by Dec. 11, when Oklahoma City hosts LeBron James and the Cavaliers. Early projections would have him definitely back by OKC's trip to their main Western Conference rival San Antonio on Christmas Day.
In the Westgate openers, the Thunder's win total was projected at 57.5 and early bettors took the over and bet it to 58, second only to the Cleveland Cavaliers' 58.5. After the adjustment to 54.5, the first bets came in on the under, and it has since settled in at 54, which is still fifth in the league; the Thunder dropped below the San Antonio Spurs(57), Los Angeles Clippers (56) and Chicago Bulls(55.5).
As for its other odds, Oklahoma City<offer> went from minus-400 to win the Northwest Division to minus-350, its odds to win the West were raised from plus-180 to plus-225 (while the Spurs were lowered from plus-160 to plus-150) and its odds to win the NBA Finals were raised from 4-1 to 9-2. Cleveland remains the 5-2 favorite to win it all in James' first year back home, while San Antonio is now the clear second choice at 3-1 at the Westgate after being 7-2 last week.</offer>
Durant's injury wasn't the only one in the NBA this weekend. Washington's Bradley Beal left his team's Friday night exhibition game at Charlotte with what was believed to be a sprained left wrist, but the wrist ended up being fractured. He is also expected to be out six to eight weeks. The Wizards' over/under win total was lowered from 49.5 to 48 and has since been bet back up to 48.5. Their odds of 11-1 to win the Eastern Conference and 25-1 to win the NBA Finals remained unchanged.
As for whether or not either of these updates offer any betting value, I really don't think so.
If Oklahoma City's win total had been lowered drastically, I might have considered a play on the over -- but Kornegay and his staff know what they're doing. The Thunder do have a lot of depth (though obviously no one has a Durant on their bench) and barring any more serious injuries to their stars, they should still end up in the mid- to upper 50s in wins. If anything, maybe the bump up to plus-225 to win the West or 9-2 to win the NBA title makes them worth a look, though the lasting impact of Durant's injury could come if the few losses they suffer in his absence end up having them fall behind the Spurs and/or Clippers for home-court advantage if/when those teams meet in the playoffs.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>Here's a look at the best over and under bets that I see on the board as the season approaches:
[h=3]New York Knicks over 40.5 wins[/h]With all this injury talk, it's important to point out that this recommendation is contingent on Amar'e Stoudemire's staying healthy. If he does, the Knicks should at least be a .500 team, which is only what it takes to cash this over. Carmelo Anthony is starting the season as a small forward, which should help him because he won't get worn out on the defensive end and should be able to concentrate more on what he does best: score. Jose Calderon, acquired in a trade with Dallas, should be an upgrade at the point overRaymond Felton. There are concerns about the lack of a dominant center, but general manager Phil Jackson has worked around that before and, although he's not the coach, his presence should be felt through hand-picked coach Derek Fisher.
[h=3]Minnesota Timberwolves under 27.5[/h]Minnesota wavered around .500 all last season, and that was with Kevin Lovestaying healthy and flashing his great offensive game that made him so coveted by Cleveland. The Wolves acquired potential superstar rookie Andrew Wiggins, but the short-term prospects aren't so bright. They weren't a very good defensive team last year (26th in points allowed at 104.3) and all their top players are more offensive-minded without a stopper in the mix (Love's departure also hurts them in the rebounding department). That doesn't help in facing the deep Western Conference, and they'll be hard-pressed to pull more than a few upsets against the top teams, which leaves them needing to win a much higher percentage against the other also-rans.
[h=4]NBA over/under win totals[/h]Courtesy: Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
| Team | Open (Sept. 30) | Current (Oct. 13) |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 58.5 | 58.5 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 56.5 | 57 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 55.5 | 56 |
| Chicago Bulls | 55.5 | 55.5 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 57.5 | 54 |
| Golden State Warriors | 50.5 | 51.5 |
| Houston Rockets | 49.5 | 49.5 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 49.5 | 49.5 |
| Toronto Raptors | 49.5 | 48.5 |
| Washington Wizards | 49.5 | 48.5 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 48.5 | 48.5 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 48.5 | 48 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 45.5 | 44.5 |
| Miami Heat | 43.5 | 44 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 41.5 | 43.5 |
| Phoenix Suns | 42.5 | 43 |
| Denver Nuggets | 40.5 | 42 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 41.5 | 42 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 40.5 | 41.5 |
| New York Knicks | 40.5 | 40.5 |
| Detroit Pistons | 36.5 | 37 |
| Indiana Pacers | 32.5 | 33 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 31.5 | 32 |
| Sacramento Kings | 30.5 | 31 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 25.5 | 27.5 |
| Orlando Magic | 28.5 | 27 |
| Boston Celtics | 26.5 | 27 |
| Utah Jazz | 25.5 | 25.5 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 24.5 | 24.5 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 15.5 | 15.5 |
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