Service Plays Tuesday 10/21/14

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World Series Cheat Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Game 1: San Francisco at Kansas City, Tuesday October 21
Game 2: San Francisco at Kansas City, Wednesday October 22
Game 3: Kansas City at San Francisco, Friday October 24
Game 4: Kansas City at San Francisco, Saturday October 25
*Game 5: Kansas City at San Francisco, Sunday October 26
*Game 6: San Francisco at Kansas City, Tuesday October 28
*Game 7: San Francisco at Kansas City, Wednesday October 29
*- If necessary --- All games televised on FOX

Overall records:
San Francisco: 96-76 overall, 49-37 home, 47-39 away
Kansas City: 97-73 overall, 46-39 home, 51-34 away

Playoff records:
San Francisco: 8-2 overall, 4-1 home, 4-1 away
Kansas City: 8-0 overall, 4-0 home, 4-0 away

How they got here:
The Giants continued their streak of advancing to the World Series in even years in this decade. San Francisco hoisted the World Series trophy in 2010 and 2012, losing just once in those two series against Texas and Detroit, respectively. Madison Bumgarner tossed a gem in the Wild Card victory at Pittsburgh, 8-0 to advance to the NLDS against Washington.

After stealing a pair of one-run wins in Washington, the Giants finished off Nationals in four games of the NLDS, as all four contests finished ‘under’ the total. In fact, San Francisco scored just nine runs in the entire series, but Bruce Bochy’s team extended its playoff winning streak to 10 before losing in Game 3 to Washington.

The Giants eliminated the Cardinals in the NLCS for the second time in three seasons, but San Francisco didn’t need to overcome a 3-1 deficit like it did in 2012. Bumgarner blanked the Cardinals as a road underdog in Game 1 at St. Louis, but the Redbirds used a walk-off homer in Game 2 to even the series at 1-1 heading back to San Francisco.

Back at AT&T Park, the Giants took all three home games from the Cardinals, including a dramatic three-run walk-off homer from Travis Ishikawa in Game 5 to stun St. Louis, 6-3. San Francisco owns an incredible 15-2 record in its past 17 playoff games, while winning 10 of its previous 13 postseason games on the highway.

The Royals were six outs away from elimination in the Wild Card game against the Athletics, as Kansas City trailed, 7-3. The rally began in the eighth inning with three runs, then the Royals tied things up in the ninth inning with a sacrifice fly. After several failed attempts to bring in the winning run from third base in extra innings, the Royals scored two runs in the 12th inning to stun the A’s, 9-8 and move to the ALDS.

The task wasn’t easy against the Angels, who owned the best record in baseball. However, Kansas City used the momentum from the Wild Card win to knock off Los Angeles twice on the road in extra innings as heavy underdogs. The Royals returned home and finished off the Angels in a three-game sweep, to improve to 10-2 since beating the Tigers in late September.

Detroit won the AL Central but was quickly knocked out by Baltimore in the ALDS, as the Royals had no fear against the AL East champions. Kansas City swept Baltimore in the ALCS, capped off by a pair of 2-1 victories at Kauffman Stadium to win the franchise’s first pennant since 1985. The Royals set a Major League Baseball record by winning their eighth straight game to begin the postseason.

Previous matchup:
The Royals swept the Giants in a three-game set at Kauffman Stadium in August, as no one would have ever expected these teams to meet in the Fall Classic. In the series opener, the Royals jumped on Bumgarner for two early runs before the Giants would even things up at 2-2. Kansas City plated two runs in the sixth inning to hold off San Francisco, 4-2 as -110 home favorites.

James Shields shut out the Giants in Game 2 by a 5-0 count, tossing a complete-game four-hitter. Tim Hudson allowed six hits and three earned runs for the Giants, as the Royals broke the game open with four runs in the seventh inning to cash as -145 home favorites.

Kansas City brought out the brooms in the series finale, 7-4, as the Royals jumped out to a 7-1 lead before the Giants plated three runs in the seventh inning. The Royals took home the money as -155 favorites thanks to 6.2 solid innings from southpaw Danny Duffy. Kansas City’s offense was lifted by Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon, who each drove in a pair of runs, as the Royals chased Tim Lincecum in the fourth inning with six runs on seven hits.

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]San Francisco at Kansas City[/h] The Royals host Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday night and come into the contest with a 5-0 record in the last 5 games versus the Giants at home. Kansas City is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

World Series Betting Preview: Giants at Royals

San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals (-101, 6.5)

The red-hot Kansas City Royals are in the World Series for the first time since 1985 and they open play Tuesday when they host the National League Champion San Francisco Giants. The American League Champion Royals are a perfect 8-0 this postseason and took the wild-card route to the pennant. San Francisco is in the World Series for the third time in five seasons and also began this postseason journey as a wild-card entrant.

National League Championship Series MVP Madison Bumgarner will be on the mound for the Giants in Game 1 and the standout left-hander lost to the Royals during the regular season. James Shields starts for Kansas City and the right-hander pitched a four-hit shutout against San Francisco in August. Both teams feature strong bullpens and have a knack for producing unlikely heroes – such as Giants’ left fielder Travis Ishikawa hitting a walk-off three-run homer to end the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, FOX

LINE HISTORY: The Royals opened as slight +100 home underdogs have been bet to -107 and are currently sitting at -101. The total is set at 6.5.

INJURY REPORT: Kansas City - P Yorando Ventura (day-to-day, shoulder).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for baseball with clear skies and temperatures in the low 60s at the start of Game 1. There will be a slight five mile per hour wind blowing in from right field.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We set the series price at -105 each, and we have a 4 Game sweep at +500, but can the Royals continue their unbeaten record in this year's playoffs? With Bumgarner on the mound for the Giants, they're favored by 1.5 runs and are currently getting 51 percent of the action, plus 63 percent of moneyline wagers. Even with both teams aces on the mound for Game 1, the Over 6.5 run total is getting 59 percent of the action so far." Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "I'm leaning under the total in the opener of this series. Both teams are more than comfortable playing small ball and with two elite starters on the mound I don't expect anything to come easy on Tuesday night. The oddsmakers are on point with a total of 6.5 and I hate playing a juiced out number - the only reason it's only a lean at this point. The side is a toss-up in Game 1 in my opinion, better opportunities lie ahead in the series in that regard." Covers Expert Sean Murphy

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (2-1, 1.42 ERA) vs. Royals RH James Shields (1-0, 5.63)

Bumgarner has pitched at least seven innings in each of his four postseason starts and is holding opposing batters to a .170 average. In the regular-season loss to the Royals, he gave up four runs (three earned) and seven hits in eight innings as Kansas City designated hitter Billy Butler had a homer and three RBIs. Bumgarner is 2-0 and hasn’t allowed a run in 15 World Series innings, blanking Texas on three hits in eight innings in 2010 and Detroit on two hits over seven innings in 2012.

Shields has struggled in the postseason, giving up 21 hits in 16 innings as opponents have touched him up for a .309 average. He was at the top of his game in the regular-season outing against San Francisco, striking out five and walking one while pitching his ninth career shutout. Shields won his lone career World Series start, beating Philadelphia in 2008 when he gave up seven hits in 5 2/3 shutout innings as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 6-0 in their last six World Series Games.
* Royals are 9-0 in their last nine games as an underdog.
* Over is 4-0 in the Giants last four playoff games.
* Over is 4-0 in Shields' last four starts overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Just under 61 percent of wagers are backing the Kansas City Royals at -101.

Tony George - Series Royals

Bottom line is this: Bullpen and defense. Kansas City has both, and both are better, and momentum galore, and I do not think the long layoff will completely take that out of the equation. It simplest terms if KC has a 1 or 2 run lead in any game past the 7th inning, and you have to go through Herrera, Davis and Holland as an opposing team to win, I would estimate your chances of winning at 20% or less in that scenario. I predicted the Royals against Oakland for the 1 game play-in, and series winners in both the LA and Baltimore series, catching them at +120 in their 4 game sweep of the O’s. Not rocking the boat here gents!

This is not to say San Fran is defenseless here and their experience is a plus, but let’s also bear in mind that KC is better at stealing bases, and manufacturing runs than any team in recent memory. They hold home field advantage which is huge in the post season, coupled with the fact they are a rock solid road team, and not to mention they swept San Fran 3-0 in their series this year. Kansas City, although I live here and am a long suffering fan, has put together a dominant post season and have destiny on their side. If 8-0 against the A’s, Angels and O’s did not convince you, then I do not know what would!


Series 2 Prop Wagers

Kansas City OVER 6 Stolen bases in the series at -110

Kansas City Bullpen LOWEST ERA in the series -110

Topshelfpicks

Raiderman - World Series - Game 1 - Royals +102

This was a tough call as Shields is typically not at his best at home while Bumgarner is absolutely terrific outside the state of California. Neither team has exceptionally strong offenses, both play good D. But how can you go against the home dog in KC? This is a team that has continually found ways to win tough games, with the bats, with the D, and with the bullpen. They took down the two best teams in the AL. SF's margin for error is very small here. So my play for Game 1 is on KC.

Topshelfpicks

Carson K - Series Royals

NCAAF

Tuesday's game

UL-Lafayette (-11) beat Texas State 48-24 LY; they were 21-26/360 passing, outgained Bobcats 572-196 in game that was 28-3 at halftime. ULL is 1-3 vs I-A teams, allowing 34+ points in all three losses- 48-20 loss to La Tech is a red flag. Texas State won its last two games by total of 8 points despite allowing 30+ points in each game- they're 0-4 in last four games as a home favorite. Ragin' Cajuns are 2-5 in last seven games as a road underdog, after being 15-2 in seventeen games before that. Sun Belt home favorites are 4-6 vs spread in conference games this year.

[h=1]NCAA Football Game Picks[/h] [h=2]Arkansas State at UL-Lafayette[/h] The Red Wolves head to UL-Lafayette tonight and come into the contest with a 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 road games. Arkansas State is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wolves favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

StatFox Super Situations

CFB | FLA ATLANTIC at MARSHALL
Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (MARSHALL) dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more in 3 straight games
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

CFB | AKRON at BALL ST
Play Against - A home team vs. the money line (BALL ST) average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games
64-43 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.8% | 0.0 units )

CFB | BOSTON COLLEGE at WAKE FOREST
Play Against - Underdogs of 6 to 11.5 points vs. the first half line (WAKE FOREST) outrushed by their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining <=2 and allowing >=6 rushing yards/attempt
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | SAN FRANCISCO at KANSAS CITY
Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (KANSAS CITY) very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), on a good fielding streak, 15 straight games with one or less errors
108-45 since 1997. ( 70.6% | 46.1 units )
20-12 this year. ( 62.5% | 3.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | SAN FRANCISCO at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 72-39 (+32.6 Units) against the money line vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.2) , OPPONENT (3.2)

StatFox Super Situations

NHL | TORONTO at NY ISLANDERS
Play On - Road underdogs of +100 to +200 against the money line (TORONTO) off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals, playing with 2 days rest
40-18 since 1997. ( 69.0% | 37.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

NHL | DETROIT at MONTREAL
Play On - Any team against the money line (DETROIT) off a home win where they shut out their opponent, with a winning record in the first half of the season
78-23 over the last 5 seasons. ( 77.2% | 48.3 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 3.0 units )

NHL | DETROIT at MONTREAL
Play On - Road teams against the money line (DETROIT) off a home win where they shut out their opponent, with a winning record in the first half of the season
35-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 77.8% | 26.4 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Texans (+3) on Monday and likes the Royals (game 1 and series) on Tuesday.

The deficit 1007 sirignanos.

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Tuesday

Islanders -160

Predators -160

Baseball Crusher
San Francisco Giants -108 over KC Royals
(System Record: 109-3, lost last 5 games)
Overall Record: 109-81

Rest of the Plays
San Francisco Giants + KC Royals UNDER 6.5

Football Crusher
Louisiana Lafayette +2.5 over Arkansas State
(System Record: 16-4, lost last 5 games)
Overall Record: 16-21-1

Rest of the Plays
Arkansas State + Louisiana Lafayette OVER 54

Hockey Crusher
Nashville Predators -150 over Arizona Coyotes
(System Record: 5-1, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 5-6

Rest of the Plays
Calgary Flames +111 over Tampa Bay Lightning
Montreal Canadiens -132 over Detroit
San Jose Sharks +123 over Boston Bruins