[h=1]How to bet UFC 179: Aldo-Mendes II[/h][h=3]Featherweight rematch offers good odds on a shallow card[/h]
By Reed Kuhn | ESPN Insider
There's a lot on the line Saturday in Rio de Janeiro. It might not be the most stacked UFC pay-per-view card, but the title fight alone will be worth watching for a lot of reasons. In the rematch between [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Jose Aldo[/FONT] and [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Chad Mendes[/FONT], Aldo has a chance to maintain his position as the longest-reigning active UFC champion in his seventh title defense.Conversely, Mendes has a chance to take a second title for Team Alpha Male directly from the Nova União fight team and complete a clean sweep of Americans holding all current UFC titles.
<cite style="margin: 0px 0px 4px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; color: rgb(171, 171, 171); background: transparent;">Reed Kuhn</cite>
Before we get to the betting preview, consider for a moment that there are a lot of good grapplers competing this weekend. There will be a few wrestling mismatches, but interestingly in the main and co-main event, all four fighters are really good at staying off their backs. Who will get top control in these fights? Will it lead to striking duels?Or will two NCAA wrestlers pull off upsets over the Brazilians? We'll take a looks at these two fights in more detail, and also explore potentially attractive prop plays for the bettors out there.<offer></offer>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">[h=3]No. 4 Glover Teixeira (minus-325) vs. No. 6 Phil Davis (plus-265)[/h]</center>
The co-main event pits Teixeira, the division's most recent title challenger, against Davis, who in theory was one win away from a title shot. Both fought and lost one-sided decisions at UFC 172 in April, but only one can rebound to prevent dropping to gatekeeper status.Interestingly, Davis is a sizable underdog despite being the much bigger and younger fighter. He is a physical superfreak, and that counts for a lot in high-level competition. Davis' two career losses came against highly ranked, experienced wrestlers in Rashad Evans and Anthony Johnson. Teixeira doesn't really fit that profile. Teixeira is certainly the more dangerous finisher with power in his hands and also a second-degree BJJ black belt to his credit. But against a rangy and durableJon Jones, Teixeira was picked apart and absorbed a mighty beating. Davis is not one to score a knockout with his hands, but cardio, durability and a grinding wrestling game all make Davis a live dog. You could say he always has a "wrestler's chance" in a fight, and that is arguably better than a "puncher's chance."
Teixeira has defended nine of 12 takedowns to date, and that defensive metric will be the key to this fight. Davis has submitted inferior wrestlers, and has stolen rounds with his wrestling on more dangerous grapplers like Lyoto Machidaand Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. He's unlikely to submit Teixeira, but his wrestling at least gives him a path to victory against a striker in Teixeira who doesn't always control the cage or press the pace. Teixeira is clearly the better mixed martial artist here, but sometimes that's not enough when a dominant wrestler is in the cage.
Insider Recommends: The toughness of both fighters and the potential for each man to work hard to avoid the strengths of the other make the "over" of 2.5 rounds the best play here. You have to lay 2-to-1 juice for it, but the over here makes for good parlay material, and Teixeira at an even higher price is too risky. Given how steep the line is (Teixeira is the biggest favorite on the main card, third-biggest of the night), a small upset prop on Davis by decision at more than plus-350 is worth a small stab for the value.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">[h=3](c) Jose Aldo (minus-230) vs. No. 1 Chad Mendes (plus-190)[/h]</center>
Mendes 2.0 looks like a much more even matchup against Aldo than in their first fight. Being a "wrestler" first three years ago, Mendes forced the takedown attempts too much and went 0-for-7 in one round trying to get Aldo to the mat. Without the threat of striking (Mendes landed only one punch in that round), Aldo was content to strike and fade and defend the takedowns, something he has historically done very well. Plenty of opponents try to test Aldo on the ground, but very few ever get there.
However, this is a five-round fight, and the takedowns that have succeeded against Aldo in the past have generally come late in the game. Frankie Edgar andMark Hominick both managed to secure top control and steal late rounds against the champ in otherwise losing efforts. So the key to defeating Aldo is getting him down a round or two earlier and grinding him down.
Still, from statistical standpoint, Aldo's stats are even more impressive considering his six UFC opponents (and several WEC opponents before that) all were elite fighters, a far more difficult strength of schedule than Mendes has faced in his current winning streak. Aldo still will have the reach advantage and the same dangerous striking and elusive defense. Knowing that you need to take him down is much easier said than done. Champions normally defend their titles about three out of four times, so you can either say he's "due for an upset" or simply that he should win here more times than not. Aldo gets the edge on paper, just barely, but that doesn't factor in the betting line.
Insider Recommends: Here's yet another instance where a fantastic mixed martial artist is at risk against a dominant wrestler. The betting line has been quite volatile, with Mendes going as low as plus-150, and as high as plus-325. There's definitely value in Mendes for the upset if you can get him at a good price (more than plus-200). A prop on Mendes by split decision is a juicy plus-800 and should be used if you end up playing the champion in parlays or straight up.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">[h=3]Closing Lines: Interesting Totals and Props[/h]</center>
There's some decent upset potential at the end of the UFC 179 card. Elsewhere, the lines are mostly pretty tight. In fact, the card overall has slightly tighter lines than historical event averages due to some close matchups and probably a lot of uncertainty on the undercard. That makes playing a fighter you know well a little less risky overall.
The prevalence of solid wrestlers on the card and the overall small average size of the fighters competing support more plays on the over. Just two fights are taking place above welterweight, so overall expect at least half of the fights to go the distance. The most likely exception is probably Fabio Maldonado vs. Hans Stringer, which is at light heavyweight (more than half of light heavyweight fights end inside the distance), so getting plus-170 for an under here is decent value.
In the biggest odds mismatch of the night, Yan Cabral is a plus-650 favorite over Naoyuki Kotani. It's a matchup of two submission specialists, except the Brazilian from the Nova União team should have the upper hand. Japanese fighters have performed very poorly in the UFC to date, but the more important trend is that fights with extreme betting odds are much more likely to end early. So instead of taking Cabral at such low value, take an inside-the-distance play here at nearly even money, as the over/under limit of 1.5 rounds is a tight one.
Also look for fights where a fighter has a good chance to win but tends to win via a particular method. Darren Elkins falls into this category as another experienced wrestler facing a striker he won't want to trade with. If you favor Elkins, consider taking the over instead, or a prop on Elkins by decision for even better value.
In moneyline odds presented here, favorites are negative values, e.g., a moneyline of minus-300 for a favorite means you must risk $300 to win $100. Underdogs are positive values, e.g., a moneyline of plus-250 means you win $250 by risking only $100. Prop bets follow the same rules. The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations or account for final closing lines. Raw data is provided by Fight Metric, with analysis by Reed Kuhn, author of "Fightnomics: the Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."
By Reed Kuhn | ESPN Insider
There's a lot on the line Saturday in Rio de Janeiro. It might not be the most stacked UFC pay-per-view card, but the title fight alone will be worth watching for a lot of reasons. In the rematch between [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Jose Aldo[/FONT] and [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Chad Mendes[/FONT], Aldo has a chance to maintain his position as the longest-reigning active UFC champion in his seventh title defense.Conversely, Mendes has a chance to take a second title for Team Alpha Male directly from the Nova União fight team and complete a clean sweep of Americans holding all current UFC titles.
Before we get to the betting preview, consider for a moment that there are a lot of good grapplers competing this weekend. There will be a few wrestling mismatches, but interestingly in the main and co-main event, all four fighters are really good at staying off their backs. Who will get top control in these fights? Will it lead to striking duels?Or will two NCAA wrestlers pull off upsets over the Brazilians? We'll take a looks at these two fights in more detail, and also explore potentially attractive prop plays for the bettors out there.<offer></offer>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">[h=3]No. 4 Glover Teixeira (minus-325) vs. No. 6 Phil Davis (plus-265)[/h]</center>
The co-main event pits Teixeira, the division's most recent title challenger, against Davis, who in theory was one win away from a title shot. Both fought and lost one-sided decisions at UFC 172 in April, but only one can rebound to prevent dropping to gatekeeper status.Interestingly, Davis is a sizable underdog despite being the much bigger and younger fighter. He is a physical superfreak, and that counts for a lot in high-level competition. Davis' two career losses came against highly ranked, experienced wrestlers in Rashad Evans and Anthony Johnson. Teixeira doesn't really fit that profile. Teixeira is certainly the more dangerous finisher with power in his hands and also a second-degree BJJ black belt to his credit. But against a rangy and durableJon Jones, Teixeira was picked apart and absorbed a mighty beating. Davis is not one to score a knockout with his hands, but cardio, durability and a grinding wrestling game all make Davis a live dog. You could say he always has a "wrestler's chance" in a fight, and that is arguably better than a "puncher's chance."
Teixeira has defended nine of 12 takedowns to date, and that defensive metric will be the key to this fight. Davis has submitted inferior wrestlers, and has stolen rounds with his wrestling on more dangerous grapplers like Lyoto Machidaand Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. He's unlikely to submit Teixeira, but his wrestling at least gives him a path to victory against a striker in Teixeira who doesn't always control the cage or press the pace. Teixeira is clearly the better mixed martial artist here, but sometimes that's not enough when a dominant wrestler is in the cage.
Insider Recommends: The toughness of both fighters and the potential for each man to work hard to avoid the strengths of the other make the "over" of 2.5 rounds the best play here. You have to lay 2-to-1 juice for it, but the over here makes for good parlay material, and Teixeira at an even higher price is too risky. Given how steep the line is (Teixeira is the biggest favorite on the main card, third-biggest of the night), a small upset prop on Davis by decision at more than plus-350 is worth a small stab for the value.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">[h=3](c) Jose Aldo (minus-230) vs. No. 1 Chad Mendes (plus-190)[/h]</center>
Mendes 2.0 looks like a much more even matchup against Aldo than in their first fight. Being a "wrestler" first three years ago, Mendes forced the takedown attempts too much and went 0-for-7 in one round trying to get Aldo to the mat. Without the threat of striking (Mendes landed only one punch in that round), Aldo was content to strike and fade and defend the takedowns, something he has historically done very well. Plenty of opponents try to test Aldo on the ground, but very few ever get there.
However, this is a five-round fight, and the takedowns that have succeeded against Aldo in the past have generally come late in the game. Frankie Edgar andMark Hominick both managed to secure top control and steal late rounds against the champ in otherwise losing efforts. So the key to defeating Aldo is getting him down a round or two earlier and grinding him down.
Still, from statistical standpoint, Aldo's stats are even more impressive considering his six UFC opponents (and several WEC opponents before that) all were elite fighters, a far more difficult strength of schedule than Mendes has faced in his current winning streak. Aldo still will have the reach advantage and the same dangerous striking and elusive defense. Knowing that you need to take him down is much easier said than done. Champions normally defend their titles about three out of four times, so you can either say he's "due for an upset" or simply that he should win here more times than not. Aldo gets the edge on paper, just barely, but that doesn't factor in the betting line.
Insider Recommends: Here's yet another instance where a fantastic mixed martial artist is at risk against a dominant wrestler. The betting line has been quite volatile, with Mendes going as low as plus-150, and as high as plus-325. There's definitely value in Mendes for the upset if you can get him at a good price (more than plus-200). A prop on Mendes by split decision is a juicy plus-800 and should be used if you end up playing the champion in parlays or straight up.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">[h=3]Closing Lines: Interesting Totals and Props[/h]</center>
There's some decent upset potential at the end of the UFC 179 card. Elsewhere, the lines are mostly pretty tight. In fact, the card overall has slightly tighter lines than historical event averages due to some close matchups and probably a lot of uncertainty on the undercard. That makes playing a fighter you know well a little less risky overall.
The prevalence of solid wrestlers on the card and the overall small average size of the fighters competing support more plays on the over. Just two fights are taking place above welterweight, so overall expect at least half of the fights to go the distance. The most likely exception is probably Fabio Maldonado vs. Hans Stringer, which is at light heavyweight (more than half of light heavyweight fights end inside the distance), so getting plus-170 for an under here is decent value.
In the biggest odds mismatch of the night, Yan Cabral is a plus-650 favorite over Naoyuki Kotani. It's a matchup of two submission specialists, except the Brazilian from the Nova União team should have the upper hand. Japanese fighters have performed very poorly in the UFC to date, but the more important trend is that fights with extreme betting odds are much more likely to end early. So instead of taking Cabral at such low value, take an inside-the-distance play here at nearly even money, as the over/under limit of 1.5 rounds is a tight one.
Also look for fights where a fighter has a good chance to win but tends to win via a particular method. Darren Elkins falls into this category as another experienced wrestler facing a striker he won't want to trade with. If you favor Elkins, consider taking the over instead, or a prop on Elkins by decision for even better value.
In moneyline odds presented here, favorites are negative values, e.g., a moneyline of minus-300 for a favorite means you must risk $300 to win $100. Underdogs are positive values, e.g., a moneyline of plus-250 means you win $250 by risking only $100. Prop bets follow the same rules. The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations or account for final closing lines. Raw data is provided by Fight Metric, with analysis by Reed Kuhn, author of "Fightnomics: the Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."
