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Thread: The Sports Cruncher's Week #10 NCAA Football Thread

  1. #26  
    Chomping at the bits thecruncher's Avatar
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    1 Unit: USU pick @ HAW (-115) Even with their 3rd string QB I like USU to win here. Besides, HAW might be on their 3rd string QB as well, lol.
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  2. #27  
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    So far I've made quite a few plays today based on opening line discrepancies, filtered through 2 or 3 other metrics as well. More plays than I thought I'd be making, that's for sure. Last week was the first week in the 3 I've posted where side plays were an overall loser. I'd said a couple of times last week how it was a very odd market week where big chalk road teams were being pounded. Overall they didn't do very well, though I didn't come out too bad on the strength of getting good opening numbers with ORE -16 and MSST -13. ALA and UCLA were both covering after the 1st quarter, only to piss it away down the stretch. AUB was never covering as their pass defense had a slightly below average game where SCAR cashed for touchdowns almost every trip deep in AUB territory. AUB had an incredible offensive game (my #1 rated offense), but it ended up not being enough as the big favorite.

    I murdered the market last week, picking up 76.5 points on all plays made versus the closing #s, but it unfortunately didn't result in mass profits, up just 3.17 units for the week. Every now and then you're going to suffer more bad beats than give them, and yesterday was definitely that. I got a bit loose with 1/2 unit 2nd half plays later in the day, after an almost 2 hour power outage, lol, but it didn't cost me too much, as both 1 unit 2nd half plays hit. Still, I definitely got a bit spewy for 3 or 4 plays, I'd say, and stubborn on some others by betting the 2nd half the same as an original game bet that wasn't faring well, though honestly the stats were in favor of making those plays.

    It was a classic cruncher week, as it turned out (3 unit losses on sides, 6 unit winner on totals), as totals have by far and away been my bread and butter over the years. If I'd blindly bet all of last week's totals that qualified with one particular metric I use, totals would have hit for 75% on 29 total plays, which is sick. I was on a lot of those, but I'll be looking more closely now at some borderline value plays that qualify with the metric.

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  3. #28  
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    2nd half plays not listed on the graphic, though they are counted for in the wins/losses and totals, etc. They were -2.85 for the day, not very good. I'd started off playing them pretty tight during the day, but like I mentioned, got too loose later on. I'm going to try and stick to the best ones from now on.
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  4. #29  
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    Quote Originally Posted by thecruncher View Post
    2 Units: MTU +9 vs. BYU (-115)

    Upset special of the week, BYU 24 -- MTU 42
    Upset special ?
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  5. #30  
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    Since when is saying that a 9 point dog will win straight up not for an calling upset? Stop embarrassing yourself.
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  6. #31  
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    1/2 Unit: STAN +11.5 @ ORE
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  7. #32  
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    1 Unit: AUB +3 @ MISS
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  8. #33  
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    Quote Originally Posted by thecruncher View Post
    Since when is saying that a 9 point dog will win straight up not for an calling upset? Stop embarrassing yourself.
    Guy is an absolute moron. Just ignore the idiots. Best of luck this week, Cruncher!
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  9. #34  
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    Thx DW, it seemed pretty obvious, lol.

    Adding for 3/5th Unit: KU +35.5 @ BAY
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  10. #35  
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    Adding for 1/2 Unit: MICH -7.5 vs IND.

    Indiana still down to their 3rd string quarterback, facing a tough Michigan run defense that matches up well against them.
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  11. #36  
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    I have to say, I almost don't even care if your plays win or lose anymore because your ability to predict line movement is so fricking uncanny that it's been very fun to watch. It's great that it's football gambling blah blah blah but the fact that you can so routinely and near perfectly predict market movement is what's impressive here.
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  12. #37  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Dipper View Post
    I have to say, I almost don't even care if your plays win or lose anymore because your ability to predict line movement is so fricking uncanny that it's been very fun to watch. It's great that it's football gambling blah blah blah but the fact that you can so routinely and near perfectly predict market movement is what's impressive here.
    I did miss the ship on Navy this week, though, lol. Last week I liked Navy to cover against the market move, which they did. Hopefully they do it two weeks in a row. Maybe the fact that the Irish have an extra week to prepare for Navy's offense is a factor I'm not weighting enough. By the numbers these teams should put up fairly even numbers, in spite of ND's very good run defense.

    UCONN is another game where I'm showing near identical statistical match-ups. When it first opened the number got bet down, but then it went back up when all the other books posted.
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  13. #38  
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    But yes, beating the lines is what makes if fun. Winning bets is what makes it worthwhile.
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  14. #39  
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    Quote Originally Posted by thecruncher View Post
    I did miss the ship on Navy this week, though, lol. Last week I liked Navy to cover against the market move, which they did. Hopefully they do it two weeks in a row. Maybe the fact that the Irish have an extra week to prepare for Navy's offense is a factor I'm not weighting enough. By the numbers these teams should put up fairly even numbers, in spite of ND's very good run defense.

    UCONN is another game where I'm showing near identical statistical match-ups. When it first opened the number got bet down, but then it went back up when all the other books posted.
    I dig your modesty! I live in Northern California and I've seen many San Jose State games this year because they're often televised locally due to proximity (SJSU is definitely not any of my alma maters, lol) and watching them last Saturday against Navy made me suddenly pay attention to the Midshipmen, especially their "QB" (forgive the sarcastic quotation marks) Keenan Reynolds whom I think holds the single season TD rushing mark for quarterbacks. Dude can scoot and the entire offense is built around making sure he gets the opportunity. Obviously ND rush D is great. It's also entirely unclear to me how Navy stops Golson. Yet, these seem to be the games that end up close in the end (cf., last year's matchup between these schools). Also, I think I'd take the over at anything less than 90! BTW, don't mistake me for thinking that individual game analysis is your bag, or even interesting to you. But I happen to look at this game after seeing Navy play and shit, my wife sure wasn't going to listen so I thought maybe the Internet might.
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  15. #40  
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    You said your totals plays are better than your sides,how about your 2 unit sides? They also seem good ? Or am I missing something ?
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  16. #41  
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    "BTW, don't mistake me for thinking that individual game analysis is your bag, or even interesting to you."

    Correct, I only look deeper into individual game match-ups when the numbers are on the fence of whether to make a bet or not. And I'm definitely not as knowledgeable on team histories, conference histories, coaching histories, recruiting histories etc. as your average school+conference fan. Football is the only major sport I actually enjoy watching, but I'm first and foremost a gambler/handicapper.

    BTW, my total for the game is 57, and it wouldn't surprise me if the posted total is lower, as usually seems to be the case with Navy games.

    "
    You said your totals plays are better than your sides,how about your 2 unit sides? They also seem good ? Or am I missing something ?"

    2 Unit sides are doing well this year, going 7-2. I haven't had any 2 unit totals yet, but last week both of the 1.5 unit totals won. Because my totals lines are always closer to the actual lines than my lines on sides are to the actual lines, my bets on totals tend to be flatter. Sometimes my lines on sides are 20+ points off the actual lines -- that will never happen on totals, where I've only be averaging one total more than 10 points off the actual total per week, I'd say.

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  17. #42  
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    Nothing like sitting down with your West coast morning coffee and seeing how much line value you've picked up from the early market action. Navy back down to +14.5 sure wish I would have waited and snagged a +17 on that one, lol. CONN back down to +12, too, so those two games I mentioned are correcting back down in the direction I'd thought they'd go.

    Only region where I didn't pick up any more value was, of course, my West coast, aka the region I'm having the hardest time with this year, lol. UCLA all the way back down to -3.5 -- I'll probably have to buy up some more on them, now. FRES lost the 1 point they'd gained, SDSU bumped back up to the original, but USU crept closer to -3, where I think that line wants to be, at a minimum.

    Off the top of my head (and smarting over lost wagers), I think that UCLA and Virginia are the two worst schools when it comes to converting the statistical advantages they possess in games into wins and covers. Maybe they are just the statistical outliers, or maybe they suffer from bad play-calling?
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  18. #43  
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    UCLA with a couple of injuries on the offensive line, looks like that single wager I put on them on a now-bad number is going to ride it out alone.
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  19. #44  
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    Adding for 3/5th Unit: TENN +8 @ SCAR

    The stats show a very even match up here, with SCAR's only read advantage being home field. TENN backup QB did fine against ALA last Saturday, and may start even if regular QB Worley is good to go.
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  20. #45  
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    been a while Crunch, great to see you are still crushing lines. I'm on a few of these games already, my numbers generally agree with almost all of your plays. BOL
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  21. #46  
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmyshivers View Post
    been a while Crunch, great to see you are still crushing lines. I'm on a few of these games already, my numbers generally agree with almost all of your plays. BOL
    Hey Jimmy, good to hear from you. I keep an eye out for your stuff at TSE. Did they do a Bowl contest again this past season? I was the inaugural champ, if you recall.
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  22. #47  
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    Tuesday morning and still picking up more line value, especially on the 2 unit plays (APP St. from -5.5 to -10.5, MTU +9 to +3.5, KSU -12.5 to -14). I'd said that MIA at -11 still had 2 units worth of value on them, and sure enough, the line is up to -17. Wisconsin is off the board because of the injury to RUTG QB Nova, but I bought two units at -11.

    The only line that's really surprising me right now is PITT up to -3.5. I favor Duke by 6 in that game. The line has bounced up and down since opening, and now it's crossed the strongest of all numbers up to 3.5. Are there some key injuries I'm not aware of (I just use Don Best)? Or is the sentiment that this a "must win" game for PITT after the fumble debacle loss of last week? Duke is nothing special, but somehow they've been finding ways to win, for the most part.
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  23. #48  
    Even DONKS win sometimes... Right? Donkwin47's Avatar
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    Great value, Crunch. Nice work. Been waiting on these totals, didn't they come out on Monday last week? What gives?
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  24. #49  
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    Because there was a Tuesday game last week they posted the week day totals on Monday, including some pretty soft lines. They got destroyed on the ARST/ULL Over. Might have made them gun shy, they should be releasing all of the week's totals sometime within the next 2 hours (usually).
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  25. #50  
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    It's go time.

    3/5th Unit: CIN @ TULN Over 54.5
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