STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 28th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 10/28/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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World Series - Best of 7 - Game #6
#911 SAN FRANCISCO @ #912 KANSAS CITY
TV: 8:07 PM EST, FOX Sports
Line: Royals -140, Total: 7, -120
The Kansas City Royals hope returning home will revitalize their title chances, while the San Francisco Giants aim to clinch their third crown in five seasons when the teams clash in Game #6 on Tuesday evening. San Francisco has scored the last 15 runs while winning two straight games to take a 3-2 lead and is looking to become the second National League team in history to win three titles in a five-year span. The St. Louis Cardinals – 1942, ’44, ’46 – are the lone team to do so.
The Royals and Giants split two games in Kansas City to begin the series, but the Royals believe they have an edge when playing at home. “We like our stadium and the way the dimensions of our field works,” first baseman Eric Hosmer told reporters. “We definitely enjoy going back home, and we’re just going to take it a game at a time and worry about Game #6.” San Francisco's Hunter Pence has gone 9-for-19 with a homer, six runs scored and five RBIs to put his name in the MVP conversation along with Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner.
PITCHING MATCHUP
•Giants RH Jake Peavy (8-14, 3.73 ERA, WHIP: 1.284) - Peavy was acquired midseason mainly for his experience and gave the Giants a solid second half in which he went 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA over 12 starts during the team’s playoff push. He also showed amazing control in that time with 1.9 walks per nine innings while giving up a mere three long balls over 78.2 frames (0.34 HR/9). Overall in his postseason career (8 starts), Peavy has gone 1-4 with a miserable 7.05 ERA and 1.70 WHIP, while pitching two games in the World Series, both of which his team has won, despite him allowing six runs in a total of nine innings.
Against the Royals in his career, he is 5-8 (6-9 team record) with a 5.09 ERA and 1.39 WHIP while giving up 10 runs on 16 hits over his past two starts (10 IP). Plenty of Kansas City hitters have had success against the veteran, with DH Billy Butler (.424 BA, 3 HR, 8 RBI in 33 AB), SS Alcides Escobar (.409 BA, 2 HR, 8 RBI in 22 AB) and OF Alex Gordon (.357 BA, 2 doubles, 1 HR, 5 RBI in 28 AB) all knocking him around. On the other hand, 1B Eric Hosmer, 3B Mike Moustakas, C Salvador Perez and OF Lorenzo Cain have combined to go a meager 11-for-57 (.193) with 1 HR, 4 RBI and 10 strikeouts in the matchup.
--PEAVY is 4-11 (-9.2 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was PEAVY 3.8, OPPONENT 4.6.
--PEAVY is 4-12 (-10.1 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was PEAVY 3.9, OPPONENT 4.7.
--PEAVY is 3-13 (-13.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PEAVY 3.4, OPPONENT 4.9.
•Royals RH Yordano Ventura (13-10, 3.25, WHIP: 1.294) - Ventura uses his explosive fastball, which averaged 96 MPH in the regular season, to baffle hitters to the tune of 7.8 K/9 in 2014. His control (3.4 BB/9) lacked somewhat though, but he did not allow too many homers (0.69 HR/9) in his time on the mound. So far over his first three postseason outings, Ventura has given up seven runs (2 HR) in 18 innings while recording 10 strikeouts. When he faced the Giants in Game #2 of this series, he allowed only two runs on eight hits to San Francisco, while he struck out two batters en route to a no-decision in which his team captured a 7-2 victory. OF Gregor Blanco got to Ventura early with a leadoff home run while both 1B Brandon Belt and 3B Pablo Sandoval hit doubles off the young righty. Meanwhile, C Buster Posey was 1-for-3 with a strikeout against him.
--VENTURA is 8-0 (+8.1 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was VENTURA 5.1, OPPONENT 2.6.
--VENTURA is 9-0 (+9.7 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was VENTURA 5.0, OPPONENT 2.4.
--VENTURA is 12-3 (+8.7 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was VENTURA 4.8, OPPONENT 3.0.
--VENTURA is 15-3 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was VENTURA 4.6, OPPONENT 2.8.
•PREGAME NOTES: Royals DH Billy Butler (3-for-7) will be back in the lineup with the contest in the American League ballpark.... San Francisco 3B Pablo Sandoval is 8-for-22 with three multi-hit performances in the series.... Kansas City LF Alex Gordon is 2-for-20 - two doubles - in the series and just 8-for-47 in the postseason.... In the 41 previous instances the World Series was 2-2 in the best-of-seven format, the Game #5 winner has taken the title 27 times. But eight of the last 10 teams to come home trailing 3-2 swept Games #6 and #7.... This is the first World Series in which four of the first five games were decided by five runs or more. The second all-wild card World Series has followed the pattern of the first in 2002.
•RESEARCH NOTES
--The Giants have avoided using fastballs to Eric Hosmer in the World Series, as he is 2-for-4 with a walk against the pitch. Against all other pitches, he is 3-for-15 with a walk and four strikeouts. Coming into the World Series, Hosmer was 10-of-19 with four walks against fastballs while only having 10 at-bats end with a different kind of pitch.
--Yordano Ventura has thrown his curveball 38 times this postseason, resulting in seven outs, no hits, four strikeouts, and one walk. Pablo Sandoval is 7-for-12 in the postseason in at-bats ending in a curveball. In the regular season, Sandoval had a .200 batting average in at-bats ending with a curveball.
--Jake Peavy allowed a .231 batting average on pitches on the outer half of the plate or further away in the regular season, below league average. Billy Butler is 5-for-22 with four strikeouts against pitches on the outer half of the plate this postseason. Lorenzo Cain is 10-of-28 with two doubles against pitches on the outer half or further away in the postseason, with only a 19.7 percent miss rate.
--In Game Two, Ventura threw his fastball 62 times (87 total pitches). Against those pitches, the Giants were 7-for-19 with a home run and one strikeout. In the postseason, hitters are 3-for-16 with two strikeouts in at-bats to end in a fastball to Ventura's glove side; they are 8-for-28 with one strikeout in at-bats to end in a fastball to his arm side.
--Brandon Belt has a .233 batting average in at-bats ending with a fastball in the postseason. Belt is 2-for-12 with four strikeouts in at-bats ending in a fastball in the upper-half of the strike zone in the postseason.
--The Giants will take the ball from the guy with the best World Series ERA all-time (min. 20 IP), Madison Bumgarner, and hand it to a guy with the 6th-worst postseason ERA all-time, Jake Peavy in Game #6.
--In plate appearances ending in a cutter or curveball in the regular season, the Royals had a .566 OPS, second-lowest in the AL. In plate appearances ending with those pitches in the regular season, Jake Peavy allowed a .552 OPS, 60 points below league average among qualified starters. Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas are a combined 0-for-9 with four strikeouts in plate appearances ending in either a cutter or a curve this postseason. Opposing hitters are a combined 3-for-17 against the 84 cutters and curveballs Jake Peavy has thrown this postseason.
--Yordano Ventura has thrown his changeup 35 times this postseason, resulting in three hits, two of which went for extra bases. Brandon Belt is 5-for-10 this postseason in at-bats to end in a changeup, with four hard-hit balls.
--Alex Gordon is 2-for-20 in the World Series, largely due to his struggles with fastballs. Gordon has not reached base in 10 plate appearances to end in a fastball in the World Series.
--The Giants’ bullpen is a sparkling 38-15 (.717) this season with a tremendous 2.90 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while successfully saving 51-of-70 (73%) games. Closer Santiago Casilla (0.00 ERA, 4 saves) has allowed just two hits in his nine appearances (7.1 IP) this postseason while going a perfect 4-for-4 in save chances.
--The bullpen for Kansas City is much of the reason why it has made it this far, and overall on the year the relievers are a collective 35-19 (.648) with a 3.28 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while being an amazing 60-for-72 (83%) in save opportunities. Closer Greg Holland (0.90 ERA, 7 saves) has allowed just four hits with 13 strikeouts in his 10 postseason appearances (10 IP).
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•KEY STATS
--SAN FRANCISCO is 3-16 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in road games versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 2.5, OPPONENT 5.3.
--KANSAS CITY is 41-20 (+20.2 Units) against the money line versus a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 4.1, OPPONENT 3.4.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--Games Over The Last 3 Seasons: KANSAS CITY is 5-3 (+2.1 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons. 4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Over= +0.1 Units.
--Giants are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings.
--Giants are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Kansas City.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SF is 5-17 in their last 22 interleague road games.
--SF is 4-10 in their last 14 interleague games as an underdog.
--SF is 17-39 in their L56 interleague road games vs. a RH starter.
--KC is 12-2 in their last 14 games versus a RH starter.
--KC is 14-6 in their last 20 versus National League West.
--KC is 9-1 in their L10 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
•UMPIRE TRENDS - Jeff Kellogg
--Over is 5-0 in Kelloggs last 5 interleague games behind home plate.
--Under is 3-0-1 in Kelloggs last 4 Tuesday games behind home plate vs. Kansas City.
--Road team is 4-0 in Kelloggs last 4 Tuesday games behind home plate vs. San Francisco.
--Road team is 4-0 in Kelloggs last 4 games behind home plate vs. San Francisco.
--Home team is 5-1 in Kelloggs last 6 Tuesday games behind home plate vs. Kansas City.
--Road team is 4-1 in Kelloggs last 5 interleague games behind home plate.
--Under is 4-1 in Kelloggs last 5 games behind home plate vs. Kansas City.
--Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 Tuesday games with Kellogg behind home plate.
--Over is 4-1 in Kelloggs last 5 Tuesday games behind home plate vs. San Francisco.
--Giants are 7-2 in their last 9 games with Kellogg behind home plate.
--Road team is 5-2 in Kelloggs last 7 Tuesday games behind home plate.
--Road team is 11-5 in Kelloggs last 16 games behind home plate.
--Royals are 6-18 in their last 24 games with Kellogg behind home plate.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (SAN FRANCISCO) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL.
(131-43 since 1997.) (75.3%, +65.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -153.4
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 3.2 (Average run differential = +2)
The situation's record this season is: (21-6, +12 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (38-11, +21.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (69-21, +37.3 units).
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