EXBOOKIE wants to help the player week 9

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EX BOOKIE
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I POST THIS IN 2005


07-10-2005, 11:44 AM
I HAVE A BOOK....THAT HAVE A LOT OF WHAT I CALL FOOTNOTES TO LIVE BY.....IN MY MIND ...THIS IS NO.1

AS A EXBOOKIE I KNEW HOW THE LINE WAS MADE .....THIS IS WHY I MADE
A PROGRAM TO FIND THE LINE VS THE SPORTBOOK LINE TO FIND VALUE + OR -
I'M NOT SURE WHO DID THIS.....BUT HERE IT IS....

FOOTNOTE NUMBER (1)


Successful football handicapping starts with throwing out those old strategies and systems that, on the surface, seem like they should work, but in reality never do. When most sports gamblers set out to make pro football picks, they call upon all manners of statistics as well as their knowledge of the sport to try to determine which team has the best chance to cover the spread. Seems logical, right?

Wrong!

This is how most people go about handicapping games, and almost everyone loses. To make enough winning picks to beat the sportsbooks over the long run, you must begin by analyzing the NFL betting lines to match the perspective of the oddsmakers.

This can be accomplished by looking backwards to determine why the odds on a given game involving 2 teams has been set at a particular number, adjusted to a particular number, or maintained at a particular number. How did the line originate? Why is the line the way it is?

By analyzing NFL betting lines in reverse, you'll be able to do two important things for increasing the success of your pro football picks:

1) You'll be able to shift your focus away from using statistics, sports knowledge, and other unprofitable techniques to pick which team you think will cover the point spread.

2) You'll be able to redirect your focus towards using indications in the NFL betting line on a given game to identify which team oddsmakers & insiders think will cover.

Looking for indications in the sportsbooks' point spreads is your best bet for picking which team the oddsmakers and insiders think will cover the spread in a given game.

The key is to understand that the sportsbooks' point spreads are the oddsmakers' instrument for dividing the monetary betting action in half for a given game. In other words, the very existence of NFL betting lines and point spreads gives a sportsbook an element of control over how the population as a whole decides to bet in a given game.

To start, the odds on a game are not the oddsmakers' assessment of what the difference in final score will be. It is their assessment of what particular football odds line number will draw even action from the combination of sports bettors.

Oddsmakers are masters at using point spreads to keep betting action divided in half. By making adjustments in a given point spread oddsmakers can sway large numbers of sports bettors who have not yet made a decision on which team to bet on in a game to place their bet on the team that has "lesser action." Ask yourself, how often have you been undecided on a game with a 3 point spread only to make your decision after the line moved down to 2 1/2 or up to 3 1/2? The movement in the spread was the book's effort to balance the action, and often times it can have a direct result on your wagering decision.

Of course, when point spreads are moved, it can also sway sports bettors who have already placed a bet on a game to "put down" additional action on that game... Or to even reverse their direction and bet the other way to try to "sandwich the game" and hit both sides. But as far as the oddsmakers are concerned, keeping the action split at each odds line number (dollar number) or point spread is the key. Doing so allows the sportsbooks to make their juice.

By controlling the odds, the Bookmakers have an amazing amount of control over who bets what amount, and at what point in time they bet that amount, thus enabling them to keep the action divided in half. However, before oddsmakers can even begin to make adjustments to keep action divided in half, they must choose a starting point or "opening line" for the game.

When creating opening lines, the incentive for a sportsbook's oddsmaker is to choose football odds that will do a fast, efficient job of splitting action in half. Doing so guarantees that they can make the most juice.

If an opening line doesn't draw even action, the sooner the spread can be adjusted to draw even action, the more vig the sportsbook can guarantee for itself. Simply put, the more a line needs to be adjusted to keep betting action even, the more overall risk the sportsbook is exposed to, and the lower the profit they stand to make. This is because the sportsbook can get stuck with uneven betting action for any given point spread number, which cuts into profits.

Therefore, you can see that the oddsmakers would be very interested in knowing what specific point spread number would draw even action for a given game before having to release the opening line for that game to the public!

But before oddsmakers could know what an opening line on a given game would need to be set at to draw even action, oddsmakers would need to know which team sports bettors planned to put their money on in advance of that game! And for a variety of different odds line numbers. This brings us to the oddsmakers' greatest strength when it comes to using point spreads to divide betting action in half.

The oddsmakers' greatest strength for dividing betting action in half is based on the fact that most sports bettors make their decisions by relying on some level of information they have collected about the matchup. To cope, oddsmakers have developed techniques to allow them to measure the level of information that prospective sports bettors know about a given game, and oddsmakers can look at this information before having to release the opening line for that game.

One method oddsmakers use to measure the information level known to sports bettors about a game is to release an exclusive "unrefined" test line for select knowledgeable and well respected gamblers or "insiders" to bet into.

For inside gamblers who have access to these "unrefined" test lines, it's like having access to free money. Because if the odds end up being far off from the test line, the game can be sandwiched by insiders for a potential double hit.

But it's well worth it for the oddsmakers to give these insiders the sandwich opportunity. Because by allowing select insiders an exclusive opportunity to place bets against early test lines, oddsmakers get a chance to determine whether or not the insiders are playing the same side in a game, whether insiders are split, and how strongly insiders feel about their selection in terms of how much they are wagering.

Collecting this type of information about how insiders are evaluating their selection on a given game helps the oddsmakers make an assessment of what the opening line will need to be set at in order to generate even betting action from the combination of inside sports bettors and general public sports bettors on a given game.

Of course oddsmakers also study general public wagering patterns. But as a rule they are more concerned with measuring insider wagering interest because insiders place bigger bets (which are harder to balance), and because insiders can at any moment have access to more relevant information about a given game than anyone else.

For example, insiders may know:

What types of strategies the teams plan to use?

Whether or not the teams are emotionally ready to play?

Who is officiating the game and what affect it can have on the teams' playing styles?

Whether the starting quarterback has a blister on his thumb?

Insiders can be in possession of so much pertinent info (a.k.a. inside info/inside reads) that never gets disseminated to the public prior to the start of the game that most people simply wouldn't believe it. The level of information that insiders possess is obviously the driving point for their bets. And since oddsmakers are providing insiders with an early test line to bet into so that they can measure the level of insider interest in a game before creating the opening line for the sole purpose of balancing action, sportsbooks' football odds and point spreads very often reflect the level of information that is known to insiders about a given game. This is the golden egg of pro football handicapping.
 

EX BOOKIE
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Myline for week 9 on all games
NO -2.5
CIN -6.5
CLE -7
DAL -5
HOU -4.5
KC -16
SD -6
MIN -6
SF -4.5
DEN -1
SEA -10.5
BAL -1
IND -2

Only two with value of +6 or more
KC...SD...NOW DO YOUR HOME WORK....
 

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THIS IS WHAT THE LINE LOOK LIKE BEFORE WEEK 1...LINEMOVEMENT I LIKE TO SEE

Week 9


New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-2.5), Thursday


Tampa Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)


Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, (-11)


Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)


Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans (PK)


New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)


San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)


Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)


St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-11)


Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-1)


Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5)


Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)


Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (-1), Monday


LINE MOVE MORE THAN 3 CLE..KC....DEN...IND....NO
 

EX BOOKIE
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Myline for week 9 on all games
NO -2.5
CIN -6.5
CLE -7
DAL -5
HOU -4.5
KC -16
SD -6
MIN -6
SF -4.5
DEN -1
SEA -10.5
BAL -1
IND -2

Only two with value of +6 or more
KC...SD...NOW DO YOUR HOME WORK....


Forgot HOU
 

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Ace,

do you have the fav/dog and the points that matter stats?

ps. I am looking for the Giants to close it out tonight, and the NBA Tips off tonight


thanks
 

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STATS VS ATS

HOME 57
AWAY 63

DOGS 55
FAV 66.......54% fav. By the end of the season. It will be closer to 50%

UN 64
OV 67

POINTS THAT MATTER 21 games out of 121. 17%
 

EX BOOKIE
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Ace,

do you have the fav/dog and the points that matter stats?

ps. I am looking for the Giants to close it out tonight, and the NBA Tips off tonight

thanks


I agree on sf winning it tonight.. NBA ..long season 7 month....slow and easy on your plays

Ace
 

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hey ace... which sheet or link above shows "what the sharps are thinking"..?? thanks I like that read..
 

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Sunday don't come out until Saturday night

[h=1]HOW SHARPS ARE BETTING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOOTBALL[/h]

NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA (Thursday-NFL): A lot of early support from sharps and squares alike for the Saints here. An opener of New Orleans -1.5 has now been bet all the way up to the key number of -3 in most places. New Orleans impressed everyone with their big win over Green Bay on Sunday Night. There's really no way to justify that price based on full season results unless you’re giving a lot of weight to the Saints finally finding their form last week. Please monitor possible moves throughout the day to see if there’s any buyback on the underdog at +3. Complicating matters here is the fact that sharps who play teasers would love to see Carolina at the +2.5 so they can cross the 3 and 7 in one fell swoop on two-teamers. The public definitely liked the Saints at anything below a field goal. The sharps will make their sentiments around the key number more clear in the hours right before kickoff.
The Over/Under as nudged up a half a point from 49 to 49.5. Doesn’t look like weather is going to be a factor, so any big move the rest of the day would most likely be from public money. Sources tell us that sharps who are still skeptical about New Orleans on the road might come in on the Under at 50.
TROY at GEORGIA SOUTHERN (Thursday-College): This is a game only sharps would bet…and sharps were very active at the openers. Georgia Southern came on the board at -23. They’ve now been bet up to -26. The Over/Under came up at 66, and has been bet down to 63. That’s a very clear “Georgia Southern and Under” combo that was still in play at -24 and 55, and at -25 and 54. Troy is likely to have big troubles stopping the option attack of GS, which means the favorite controls the flow of the game and the clock. Note that sharp money did stop coming in at the 26 and 63.
FLORIDA STATE at LOUISVILLE (Thursday-College): Great to have such an important college game on a Thursday Night! There were multiple max bets that came on in home underdog Louisville earlier in the week. Florida State opened at -7…but the number has dropped down to either –3.5 of -4 depending on your store. Oddsmakers expect the public to bet Florida State as an affordable powerhouse in a TV game. But, squares backing the Seminoles this season have taken a bath! So, that sentiment isn’t as strong as usual…and is part of the reason sportsbooks dropped their number so quickly when sharps came in strong right away on Louisvile. No interest on the total yet…and weather isn’t going to be any sort of developing factor based on the forecast.
TULSA at MEMPHIS (Friday-College): Moving to Friday now. Sharps have fallen back in love with Memphis after the bounce back game at SMU. The Wise Guys had been doing well with the Tigers until that stunning home loss to Houston. Here, an opener of -21.5 has been bet up to -24. And, there’s even been some testing of -24.5. That’s telling because -24 is a minor key number in blowout scenarios. Money still seems to be coming in on the Tigers at -24. The total has risen from an opener of 60 up to 61 or 61.5.
CINCINNATI at TULANE (Friday-College): Support for the road favorite and the Over here, with Cincinnati opening at -3.5 and 54.5, before rising up to -4.5 and 56.5. You knew right away that sharps didn’t like Tulane because the opener moved away from the key number of three. Sharps preferring the home dog would have taken out the hook right away. We’re hearing there is some home dog money out there waiting to come into play. We would probably see that at +5 unless it looks like the public was going to drive it higher. Less likely in a low profile game like this.
 

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Thanks ace
 

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THE SPORTS MONITOR 2014 COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 9
"CONTEST RULES" YEAR TO DATE RECORDS FROM AUGUST 27, 2014. THROUGH OCTOBER 25, 2014 10/21 - 10/25
(3 GMS WEEKLY) WITH FULL SCHEDULE SIDES AND TOTALS COMBINED SIDES TOTALS O/U SIDES/TOTALS
40 PICKS FOR SEASON FOR FINAL RANK STRANDING W/L WON ROR NET NET TOP WON NET WON NET WON NET
SEASON TO DATE MINIMUM (27) RK % LOSS RK % RK WINS RK PROFIT PLAY LOSS PROFIT LOSS PROFIT LOSS PROFIT
THE TROPHY CLUB (FORMERLY HEISMAN TROPHY)176.00%19/6155.16%512.403$8,3901/014/5$6,1405/1$2,2502/1$660
WAYNE ROOT'S PERSONAL BEST270.37%19/8336.69%810.202$10,2000/019/8$10,2000/0$04/2$1,800
WILDCAT SPORTS DIR & 900368.00%17/8532.39%8.20$4,1100/017/8$4,1100/0$02/1$560
RAPHAEL ESPARZA (VSI) - docsports.com465.52%19/10243.77%8.0010$5,4809/018/8$5,6501/2-$1701/2-$170
STRIKE POINT SPORTS - docsports.com565.38%17/9435.40%7.10$4,3409/217/9$4,3400/0$01/2$30
MIKE DAVIS - docsports.com665.22%15/8630.08%6.20$4,07012/615/8$4,0700/0$02/1$550
ALLEN ******* - docsports.com762.71%37/22724.79%412.807$5,8008/336/22$5,6001/0$2007/0$2,900
4 of us at docsports in the top 7 in CFB.
 

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Hi Ace,

where can I get the consensus closing lines for Sides and Totals I want to run some logistic regression on NFL data.

TNK U
 

EX BOOKIE
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Hi Ace,

where can I get the consensus closing lines for Sides and Totals I want to run some logistic regression on NFL data.

TNK U

donbest.com. I use them years ago.....think you have to sign up to get them.
 

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[h=1]HOW SHARPS ARE BETTING NFL WEEK 9[/h]

SAN DIEGO AT MIAMI: Miami has been bet up from an opener of -1.5 to -2.5…but it’s not likely to go to the full three because San Diego money will come in very heavily at the key number. The Chargers are perceived as the superior team, which is why the number opened below the field goal. And, oddsmakers know San Diego +8.5 will already be popular in two-team teasers because the 6-point move crosses both the 3 and the 7. The total has moved from 44 up to 45. As always, I’ll only mention Over/Unders in games where the line has moved at least a point.
JACKSONVILLE AT CINCINNATI: Strong interest on big underdog Jacksonville, as an opener of +13 has been bet down to just +11. Several factors in play here. The Jaguars have been playing good defense, which triggers a lot of old school action at double digit pricing. Cincinnati is in a letdown spot off a very physical divisional win over Baltimore last week. Also, the Bengals have been dealing with injuries, and are still have some lingering fatigue from that tough schedule stretch that included a 5-quarter tie. Sharps stepped in fairly hard at +13 figuring this wasn’t a favorite the public was likely to love with any passion, and kept betting at +12.
TAMPA BAY AT CLEVELAND: Some position-taking on Cleveland on the opener of -6. We’re seeing -6.5 in most places now. It’s not likely to hit the key number of seven though because sportsbooks know sharps would come in hard on the visiting Bucs at that number. Cleveland hasn’t impressed the last two weeks vs. Jacksonville and Oakland. They haven’t earned the right to lay a TD vs. a mediocrity like Tampa Bay. Those early position-takers are still hoping that the public pushes the game higher before kickoff. I wouldn’t expect 7’s to be available long if they’re tested. The total has been bet down from 44.5 to 43.5 based on the recent form of the two teams.
WASHINGTON AT MINNESOTA: Not much interest here. The game has alternated between pick-em and Minnesota -1. Sharps have lost their enthusiasm for Teddy Bridgewater. And, they don’t want to take any shots on RGIII until they see that he’s performing at a decent level. He was sluggish at the start of the season even when the team was labelling him as healthy. Not likely to be a heavily bet game by sharps or squares.
PHILADELPHIA AT HOUSTON: The Eagles opened at -2.5 on the road. Most stores are now at Philly -2. That keeps the game in the teaser window because you can push Houston up to +8 and cross two key numbers. You can tell immediately that sharps didn’t like the Eagles or they would have taken out the -2.5 and moved the game to three. Movement away from the key number suggests many sharps like the hosts, and will try to maximize value with the teaser approach. The total is down from an opener of 50 to 48.5. That speaks to the respect sharps have for Houston’s defense. It’s fair to say that Wise Guys liking the Texans here expressed that with bets on Under 50 and Under 49 rather than Houston +2.5.
NY JETS AT KANSAS CITY: The game has been hopping between Kansas City -9.5 and NY Jets +10. Calling it a tug-of-war is a bit strong because there’s not a lot of energy on either side. But, value bettors and position takers preferring the Chiefs will hit the -9.5. Some Jets money does come in at the key number of +10. A “tug-of-value.” Sharps soured on new Jets starting quarterback Michael Vick long ago. They don’t yet trust Kansas City as big favorites…but the Chiefs have been rising in respected Power Ratings.
ARIZONA AT DALLAS: No early line because the market is waiting to see if Tony Romo will play. This is an important game in the NFC race…and could be bet heavily by squares once a number goes up. Sharps have a number in mind for both Romo and Orton. They’ll fade any differences from that opinion. And, they’ll definitely fade any public sentiment toward an injured Romo if he does try to play with a bad back against this respected Arizona defense.
ST. LOUIS AT SAN FRANCISCO: Another game hopping between 9.5 and 10 without much passion. The “tug of value” is on San Francisco -9.5 and St. Louis +10. Sharps do prefer the Rams side of that more emphatically at the key number of +10 because it’s a divisional rivalry game for a team that doesn’t have much to play for this season except divisional rivalries. You saw St. Louis lose badly to Kansas City last week, and fall way behind Philadelphia on the road not too long ago. Between those was a home upset of Seattle. Sharps will take +10 now when they see it, and are hoping the public may drive the line even higher on game day. There aren’t a lot of magnet games for squares beyond the one that’s up next on the schedule. So, it’s possible that we have a more aggressive tug-of-war in Rams/Niners on Sunday.
DENVER AT NEW ENGLAND: This is the game everyone’s waiting for…and a game that everyone will be betting on. The late TV window guarantees a huge handle because locals will have time to re-invest after the early kicks. The game has been a solid Denver -3 and 54 all week. That team side number will likely split the action fairly well. Sharps will fade any move off the key number in what’s expected to be a competitive game. Squares will probably bet the Over on game day because that would allow them to root for both popular betting quarterbacks. Sharps would consider the Under at 55, particularly if there are any weather issues involved.
OAKLAND AT SEATTLE: Low interest game so far. Seattle opened at -15. Some stores have tested -14.5 to see if that inspires any action. Old school guys who take every double digit dog are in at +15. The quants bet Over 41 and 42 because Oakland’s likely to throw passes all day playing from behind (56 last week in the loss at Cleveland). That will lengthen the game and increase scoring opportunities. That opener of 41 is now up to 43 in most places, with a few testing 43.5.
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH (Sunday Night): The game opened at pick-em, Then, Baltimore was bet up to -1 or -1.5. That has surprised some observers because Pittsburgh looked so great last week vs. Indianapolis while Baltimore was losing a hardfought battle at Cincinnati. The Ravens are still respected by sharps because the offense seems to be responding to Gary Kubiack’s work as coordinator. Pittsburgh has been inconsistent this year (losing badly to this same Ravens team several weeks ago), and isn’t yet trusted to deliver every week. Though, if the line does stick at Baltimore -1.5 or -2, then teaser players will be all over Pittsburgh +7.5 or +8. Huge move here on the total, as an opener of 44 has been bet all the way up to 48. That’s a MONSTER move by this year’s standards. Oddsmakers had fairly well cracked the algorithm code for how sharps make their totals. Sources tell us this was a case of “recent form” trumping the full season numbers. Last week’s Steelers/Colts game had 85 total points and 1,087 total yards.
INDIANAPOLIS AT NY GIANTS (Monday Night): Speaking of the Colts, we’re seeing a market replay of Steelers/Colts in the Monday Night game. Indianapolis has opened -3…and has been getting enough action to encourage many stores to test -3.5. It takes a lot of money to move off the three in the NFL. And, that money is coming in this week when it just got burned last week! Note that the Giants had a bye last week, but will still be missing star receiver Victor Cruz for the rest of the season. It’s a testament to how highly Andrew Luck has pushed the Colts in sharp Power Ratings that this road favorite is getting so much market respect.


 

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Good Luck today Ace this extra hour is killing me lets play ball they should just start at noon today
 

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