[h=1]NBA's most overpaid, underpaid[/h][h=3]Believe it -- Kobe isn't the most overpaid; but a familiar name is[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Larry Coon[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
This is our fourth annual look at how players' #NBArank rankings compare to their salaries. This analysis shows which players and teams return the most bang for the buck, and which don't perform well enough to justify their high salaries.
By plotting every player's #NBArank score with his salary, a regression analysis finds the curve that best fits the data. This curve represents an "expected" salary for any given #NBARank score. Players whose plot points fall above the curve are overpaid; those below it are underpaid, and the vertical distance between the two shows by how much.
This chart shows every player, with the line indicating the leaguewide regression curve. The curve is exponential, so the higher the #NBArank score, the faster the expected salary climbs. Colors represent different contract types, and the older the player, the bigger his plot point.
No players gets paid exactly what we'd expect based on #NBArank alone. But performance clearly has a big influence -- statistical analysis tells us that #NBArank explains about 63 percent of the salary data. The remaining 37 percent comes from other factors, such as maximum salary rules, age, the type of contract signed, the effects of injuries, negotiating skill, and even being in the right place at the right time.
This season the most correctly paid player is Detroit's Hasheem Thabeet, whose actual and expected salaries differ by just 477 bucks.
Most overpaid and underpaid by amount
Lakers star<offer> Kobe Bryant said that "business is business," and that "you have to fight for what your market value is. ... I think people get that confused very easily in understanding that players should take substantially less than their market value in order to win championships," Bryant said.</offer>
But in a system with mechanisms like a salary cap and maximum salaries to level the playing field while distributing salaries equitably, that's exactly what happens. Few players are paid commensurate to their market value, and many star players end up making much less than they are worth. Here are the most underpaid players in the league, based on the amount by which they are underpaid:
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Davis is subject to the rookie salary rules, and won't be eligible to receive a lucrative extension until 2016-17.Many of the others are subject to the maximum salary rules. This list also includes Dirk Nowitzki, who took a substantial pay cut to re-sign with the Mavs.
This year Amar'e Stoudemire and Joe Johnson have overtaken Bryant as the most overpaid players in the league. This is mostly a result of Bryant taking a substantial pay cut this season. He still is the highest paid player in the league, but his salary is closer to his value than it was last season.
Here are the most overpaid players based on the amount by which they are overpaid:
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Here's the annual Kobe Bryant disclaimer: The value of players like Bryant transcend their on-court performances. While #NBArank considers only a player's predicted contribution as a basketball player, superstar players also put fans in seats, glue eyes to TV screens, and help sell lots of merchandise. It's fair to say that players like Bryant really are paid on a different scale -- factoring in the total value they bring to the league. It's not unique to the NBA, either. Just look at Derek Jeter. There's also something to be said for taking care of franchise players in their sunset years.
Most overpaid and underpaid by percentage
It is equally valid to look at the results by percentages. Here are the most underpaid players based on the percentage by which they are underpaid. For example, Patrick Beverley is paid just 18.4 percent of his expected salary.
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At the other end of the spectrum, here are the most overpaid players in the league, based on percentages:
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Stoudemire tops both "overpaid" lists. Any way you look at it, he's the most overpaid player in the NBA. An interesting inclusion in this list is Joel Embiid. Because he's injured and likely won't contribute much in 2014-15, the scale salary for the third overall pick makes him overpaid relative to his expected performance.
Overpaid and underpaid by contract type
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It's no surprise that the best contract values are draft picks. Second- and first-round picks are typically paid 61 and 72 percent of their value, respectively. But the worst value contracts go to late-signed rookies -- first-round picks who don't sign a contract for at least three years, and are no longer bound to regular rookie scale contracts. But there are only three such players in the league, so it's hard to draw any firm conclusions.
Extensions are a mixed bag. Extensions given to players coming off their rookie contracts typically return good value. But extensions to veteran (typically older) players are less cost effective -- teams typically overpay these players by 61 percent.
As expected, sign-and-trade and restricted free agency lead to overpaying players. In theory, the more a team offers a restricted free agent, the less likely the player's previous team will match. Therefore it's surprising that the gap isn't wider between matched and unmatched offer sheets. It looks like teams really can't scare other teams away with overinflated offer sheets, Chandler Parsons notwithstanding.
Overpaid and underpaid by age
The pattern based on age continues from last year. The older players get, the more they tend to be overpaid. The pattern breaks with players 35 and older, who more often than not have entered journeyman status.
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Overpaid and underpaid teams
An average team might overpay a few players and underpay a few players, but end up close to the "expected" line overall. But if a team consistently overpays or underpays its players, its total will skew positive or negative. Here are the most underpaid teams -- the teams that get the most bang for their buck:
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Teams with high-performing superstars on max contracts dominate this list, because the salaries of superstars are the most constrained. For example the Cavs should be paying its players nearly $30 million more, mainly because the team's three biggest stars -- James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving -- are underpaid by a total of about $28.3 million. It's no surprise that this list is filled with teams that are expected to contend for the championship.
Here's the other end of the scale -- the teams that are the most overpaid:
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This list is loaded with teams with players who don't earn the superstar dollars they are being paid. Leading the way is Brooklyn, which is led in the overpaid column by Joe Johnson (overpaid by $15.3 million), Deron Williams ($11.6 million) and Kevin Garnett ($7.4 million).
The most correctly paid team is the Phoenix Suns, which are underpaid by just $86,356. And there you have it.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Larry Coon[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
This is our fourth annual look at how players' #NBArank rankings compare to their salaries. This analysis shows which players and teams return the most bang for the buck, and which don't perform well enough to justify their high salaries.
By plotting every player's #NBArank score with his salary, a regression analysis finds the curve that best fits the data. This curve represents an "expected" salary for any given #NBARank score. Players whose plot points fall above the curve are overpaid; those below it are underpaid, and the vertical distance between the two shows by how much.
This chart shows every player, with the line indicating the leaguewide regression curve. The curve is exponential, so the higher the #NBArank score, the faster the expected salary climbs. Colors represent different contract types, and the older the player, the bigger his plot point.
No players gets paid exactly what we'd expect based on #NBArank alone. But performance clearly has a big influence -- statistical analysis tells us that #NBArank explains about 63 percent of the salary data. The remaining 37 percent comes from other factors, such as maximum salary rules, age, the type of contract signed, the effects of injuries, negotiating skill, and even being in the right place at the right time.
This season the most correctly paid player is Detroit's Hasheem Thabeet, whose actual and expected salaries differ by just 477 bucks.
Most overpaid and underpaid by amount
Lakers star<offer> Kobe Bryant said that "business is business," and that "you have to fight for what your market value is. ... I think people get that confused very easily in understanding that players should take substantially less than their market value in order to win championships," Bryant said.</offer>
But in a system with mechanisms like a salary cap and maximum salaries to level the playing field while distributing salaries equitably, that's exactly what happens. Few players are paid commensurate to their market value, and many star players end up making much less than they are worth. Here are the most underpaid players in the league, based on the amount by which they are underpaid:
| Player | #NBArank | Score | Expected salary | Actual salary | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 4 | 9.06 | $23,507,432 | $5,607,240 | $17,900,192 |
| LeBron James | 1 | 10.00 | $35,957,204 | $20,644,400 | $15,312,804 |
| Damian Lillard | 16 | 8.16 | $15,680,641 | $3,340,920 | $12,339,721 |
| Stephen Curry | 7 | 8.98 | $22,705,830 | $10,629,213 | $12,076,617 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 24 | 7.84 | $13,573,183 | $2,894,059 | $10,679,124 |
| Andre Drummond | 30 | 7.50 | $11,643,458 | $2,568,360 | $9,075,098 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 17 | 8.16 | $15,680,641 | $7,974,482 | $7,706,159 |
| Russell Westbrook | 5 | 9.02 | $23,111,172 | $15,719,062 | $7,392,110 |
| Kenneth Faried | 42 | 7.04 | $9,455,295 | $2,249,768 | $7,205,527 |
| Kyrie Irving | 23 | 7.88 | $13,849,084 | $7,070,730 | $6,778,354 |
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Davis is subject to the rookie salary rules, and won't be eligible to receive a lucrative extension until 2016-17.Many of the others are subject to the maximum salary rules. This list also includes Dirk Nowitzki, who took a substantial pay cut to re-sign with the Mavs.
This year Amar'e Stoudemire and Joe Johnson have overtaken Bryant as the most overpaid players in the league. This is mostly a result of Bryant taking a substantial pay cut this season. He still is the highest paid player in the league, but his salary is closer to his value than it was last season.
Here are the most overpaid players based on the amount by which they are overpaid:
| Player | #NBArank | Score | Expected salary | Actual salary | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amar'e Stoudemire | 190 | 4.40 | $2,876,399 | $23,410,988 | $20,534,589 |
| Joe Johnson | 59 | 6.63 | $7,880,777 | $23,180,790 | $15,300,013 |
| Kobe Bryant | 40 | 7.06 | $9,537,664 | $23,500,000 | $13,962,336 |
| Deron Williams | 55 | 6.72 | $8,190,197 | $19,754,465 | $11,564,268 |
| Rudy Gay | 51 | 6.85 | $8,669,730 | $19,317,326 | $10,647,596 |
| Eric Gordon | 110 | 5.48 | $4,683,299 | $14,898,938 | $10,215,639 |
| Andrea Bargnani | 227 | 4.00 | $2,401,577 | $11,500,000 | $9,098,423 |
| David Lee | 69 | 6.36 | $6,962,689 | $15,012,000 | $8,049,311 |
| Kendrick Perkins | 279 | 3.44 | $1,865,532 | $9,654,342 | $7,788,810 |
| Gerald Wallace | 229 | 4.00 | $2,401,577 | $10,105,855 | $7,704,278 |
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Here's the annual Kobe Bryant disclaimer: The value of players like Bryant transcend their on-court performances. While #NBArank considers only a player's predicted contribution as a basketball player, superstar players also put fans in seats, glue eyes to TV screens, and help sell lots of merchandise. It's fair to say that players like Bryant really are paid on a different scale -- factoring in the total value they bring to the league. It's not unique to the NBA, either. Just look at Derek Jeter. There's also something to be said for taking care of franchise players in their sunset years.
Most overpaid and underpaid by percentage
It is equally valid to look at the results by percentages. Here are the most underpaid players based on the percentage by which they are underpaid. For example, Patrick Beverley is paid just 18.4 percent of his expected salary.
| Player | #NBArank | Score | Expected salary | Actual salary | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Beverley | 103 | 5.62 | $4,976,460 | $915,243 | 18.4% |
| Draymond Green | 120 | 5.31 | $4,331,609 | $915,243 | 21.1% |
| Damian Lillard | 16 | 8.16 | $15,680,641 | $3,340,920 | 21.3% |
| Kawhi Leonard | 24 | 7.84 | $13,573,183 | $2,894,059 | 21.3% |
| Andre Drummond | 30 | 7.50 | $11,643,458 | $2,568,360 | 22.1% |
| Shawn Marion | 136 | 5.10 | $3,944,266 | $915,243 | 23.2% |
| Kenneth Faried | 42 | 7.04 | $9,455,295 | $2,249,768 | 23.8% |
| Anthony Davis | 4 | 9.06 | $23,507,432 | $5,607,240 | 23.9% |
| Mason Plumlee | 112 | 5.44 | $4,597,968 | $1,357,080 | 29.5% |
| Rodney Stuckey | 171 | 4.56 | $3,091,649 | $915,243 | 29.6% |
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At the other end of the spectrum, here are the most overpaid players in the league, based on percentages:
| Player | #NBArank | Score | Expected salary | Actual salary | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amar'e Stoudemire | 190 | 4.40 | $2,876,399 | $23,410,988 | 813.9% |
| Kendrick Perkins | 279 | 3.44 | $1,865,532 | $9,654,342 | 517.5% |
| Andrea Bargnani | 227 | 4.00 | $2,401,577 | $11,500,000 | 478.9% |
| Steve Nash | 246 | 3.76 | $2,155,187 | $9,701,000 | 450.1% |
| Jason Richardson | 345 | 2.92 | $1,475,517 | $6,601,125 | 447.4% |
| Gerald Wallace | 229 | 4.00 | $2,401,577 | $10,105,855 | 420.8% |
| Tayshaun Prince | 275 | 3.48 | $1,899,494 | $7,707,865 | 405.8% |
| Joel Embiid | 398 | 2.42 | $1,179,251 | $4,427,640 | 375.5% |
| Landry Fields | 293 | 3.33 | $1,772,773 | $6,250,000 | 352.6% |
| Joel Anthony | 405 | 2.38 | $1,158,970 | $3,800,000 | 327.9% |
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Stoudemire tops both "overpaid" lists. Any way you look at it, he's the most overpaid player in the NBA. An interesting inclusion in this list is Joel Embiid. Because he's injured and likely won't contribute much in 2014-15, the scale salary for the third overall pick makes him overpaid relative to his expected performance.
Overpaid and underpaid by contract type
| Type | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Second-round contract | 61% |
| Rookie scale contract | 72% |
| Summer contract | 81% |
| Qualifying offer | 91% |
| Rookie extension | 93% |
| Free agent | 109% |
| Amnesty claim | 141% |
| Re-signed free agent | 143% |
| Matched offer sheet | 154% |
| Offer sheet | 156% |
| Veteran extension | 161% |
| Sign-and-trade | 177% |
| Late-signed rookie | 178% |
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It's no surprise that the best contract values are draft picks. Second- and first-round picks are typically paid 61 and 72 percent of their value, respectively. But the worst value contracts go to late-signed rookies -- first-round picks who don't sign a contract for at least three years, and are no longer bound to regular rookie scale contracts. But there are only three such players in the league, so it's hard to draw any firm conclusions.
Extensions are a mixed bag. Extensions given to players coming off their rookie contracts typically return good value. But extensions to veteran (typically older) players are less cost effective -- teams typically overpay these players by 61 percent.
As expected, sign-and-trade and restricted free agency lead to overpaying players. In theory, the more a team offers a restricted free agent, the less likely the player's previous team will match. Therefore it's surprising that the gap isn't wider between matched and unmatched offer sheets. It looks like teams really can't scare other teams away with overinflated offer sheets, Chandler Parsons notwithstanding.
Overpaid and underpaid by age
The pattern based on age continues from last year. The older players get, the more they tend to be overpaid. The pattern breaks with players 35 and older, who more often than not have entered journeyman status.
| Age range | Count | Pct. 2014-15 | Pct. 2013-14 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 25 | 188 | 81.0% | 84.0% |
| 25 - 29 | 178 | 114.8% | 138.8% |
| 30 - 34 | 83 | 148.0% | 174.4% |
| 35 and older | 10 | 126.2% | 122.7% |
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Overpaid and underpaid teams
An average team might overpay a few players and underpay a few players, but end up close to the "expected" line overall. But if a team consistently overpays or underpays its players, its total will skew positive or negative. Here are the most underpaid teams -- the teams that get the most bang for their buck:
| Team | Underpaid amount |
|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | $29,707,913 |
| San Antonio Spurs | $16,111,380 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | $13,825,822 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | $8,793,265 |
| Houston Rockets | $5,977,488 |
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Teams with high-performing superstars on max contracts dominate this list, because the salaries of superstars are the most constrained. For example the Cavs should be paying its players nearly $30 million more, mainly because the team's three biggest stars -- James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving -- are underpaid by a total of about $28.3 million. It's no surprise that this list is filled with teams that are expected to contend for the championship.
Here's the other end of the scale -- the teams that are the most overpaid:
| Team | Overpaid amount |
|---|---|
| Brooklyn Nets | $42,321,618 |
| New York Knicks | $36,146,425 |
| Boston Celtics | $26,970,650 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | $25,768,859 |
| Sacramento Kings | $20,730,938 |
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This list is loaded with teams with players who don't earn the superstar dollars they are being paid. Leading the way is Brooklyn, which is led in the overpaid column by Joe Johnson (overpaid by $15.3 million), Deron Williams ($11.6 million) and Kevin Garnett ($7.4 million).
The most correctly paid team is the Phoenix Suns, which are underpaid by just $86,356. And there you have it.
