I know the answer but...

TeeItUp22

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• Oct 29, 2014

• #1

Yesterday bet KC series +200. Tonight I get SF at +131. Take the sure thing and play SF? Have a 2k bet on the series so there's a 6k swing if KC loses. If I play SF for 2600 I will win around 1k regardless.

 

RussellPeters

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• Oct 29, 2014

• #2

TeeItUp22 said:

Yesterday bet KC series +200. Tonight I get SF at +131. Take the sure thing and play SF? Have a 2k bet on the series so there's a 6k swing if KC loses. If I play SF for 2600 I will win around 1k regardless.

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Yes I would definitely hedge and guarantee yourself $1400 regardless of who wins tonight. If KC wins 4000-2600. If SF wins 3406-2000. Congrats and good luck on whatever you decide.

 

reservoirdog

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• Oct 29, 2014

• #3

TeeItUp22 said:

Yesterday bet KC series +200. Tonight I get SF at +131. Take the sure thing and play SF? Have a 2k bet on the series so there's a 6k swing if KC loses. If I play SF for 2600 I will win around 1k regardless.

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so in effect you played KC $2000 to win $1400 or @ -143 in game 6

 

TeeItUp22

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• #4

reservoirdog said:

so in effect you played KC $2000 to win $1400 or @ -143 in game 6

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No I played KC before yesterday's game at +200 to win the series. 2000 to win 4000. Now I get SF at +131 for this game. I assure myself a profit depending on the amount of the wager. If I bet SF for 2600 tonight I come out about a grand ahead regardless But lose the chance at the big money.

 

varkeyboy

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• Oct 29, 2014

• #5

Who wouldn't want an extra $1,000 in your pocket? Hey, if you can afford to lose $6,000....then be ballsy. I wouldn't.

 

BoutMyMoney

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• #6

Hedge . Sit back . And enjoy the game

 

LexingtonBrass

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• Oct 29, 2014

• #7

Easy decision = hedge! Do it and walk away up a G!

 

volcom-pike

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• Oct 29, 2014

• #8

SF +1.5 (-150) $1500/$1000
and
SF +130 $1000/$1300

is what I would do if I were still decently comfortable with KC winning tonight.

 

RussellPeters

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• Oct 29, 2014

• #9

volcom-pike said:

SF +1.5 (-150) $1500/$1000
and
SF +130 $1000/$1300

is what I would do if I were still decently comfortable with KC winning tonight.

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If SF wins profit = $300
If KC wins by 1 run profit = $4000
If KC wins by 2 or more runs profit = $1500

Is that right?

 

volcom-pike

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• Oct 29, 2014

• #10

Russell Peters said:

If SF wins profit = $300
If KC wins by 1 run profit = $4000
If KC wins by 2 or more runs profit = $1500

Is that right?

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Yes. I think that if your initial read was that you expect KC to win the series, you should weigh it more to their winning and a short profit in consolation of a loss. Game 7s are always a stage for magic, so a walkoff or one run victory seems an appropriate end. Who knows though, KC has been home to all the blowouts (for both teams) of the series.

 

RussellPeters

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• Oct 29, 2014

• #11

volcom-pike said:

Yes. I think that if your initial read was that you expect KC to win the series, you should weigh it more to their winning and a short profit in consolation of a loss. Game 7s are always a stage for magic, so a walkoff or one run victory seems an appropriate end. Who knows though, KC has been home to all the blowouts (for both teams) of the series.

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Yes that's a good point. Good luck teeitup, let us know what you end up doing? Hopefully you hedged and made a profit.

 

TeeItUp22

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• #12

Russell Peters said:

Yes that's a good point. Good luck teeitup, let us know what you end up doing? Hopefully you hedged and made a profit.

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Thanks for the thoughts gents. Hedged at +130 for 2600. Gonna profit around 1k when all is said and done regardless. When I saw the +200, the big risk was getting through last night.