STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF STAT/SHEETS
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 1st 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #10 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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College Football Week #9 Results
•Top 25 Notes
The dream isn't quite over for Mississippi, but their undefeated season is. They fell 10-7 at Louisiana State, and some will question Hugh Freeze's decision to bypass a game-tying field goal attempt, and go for a touchdown, especially after having managed seven points for the entire game. The non-cover ended Ole Miss' 6-0-1 ATS run against the spread. The biggest rivals of the Rebels, Mississippi State, found out just how improved Kentucky is. While a 45-31 road victory looks impressive, the win by the Bulldogs was a fight to the finish. The non-cover was the first for Mississippi State since September 6th, a span of four games.
Auburn had its hands full in an unexpected dogfight against South Carolina, 42-35. The Tigers are just 1-4 versus the spread over their past five games. Texas Christian scored a Big 12 record 82 points, as co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Sonny Cumbie and the Horned Frogs embarrassed Cumbie's alma mater and former employer, Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs improved to a perfect 7-0 against the spread on the season.
•Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
-- The ACC saw the Under cash in four of five games over the weekend, and the only favorite to connect was Miami-Florida in Thursday's visit to Virginia Tech, 30-6. The Hurricanes are still just 1-3 SU/ATS on the road.... Clemson was bailed out by its defense against Syracuse, winning 16-6. The Under has hit in four straight for the Tigers, and they have averaged 18.7 points per game over the past three while allowing just 9.0 points per game over the past four. Clemson is also 0-3 ATS over the past three.... Florida State was on a bye.
-- In Big 12 action, the favorite was 3-0 straight-up and against the spread, with Texas suffering its first shutout since October 9th, 2004 in their 23-0 loss at Kansas State. The Wildcats are now 4-0 versus the spread in four conference tilts.... West Virginia won 34-10 at Oklahoma State, as the Mountaineers continue their upward ascent. WVU has won six of the past seven, and covered back-to-back games for the first since August 30th-September 13th, when they opened 3-0 ATS.
-- It was a high-scoring weekend in the Big Ten Conference, as the Over connected in four of the five games.... Ohio State won the most exciting game of the day at Penn State, winning 31-24 in double-overtime. See bad beats (below) for more.... Michigan State hammered Michigan 35-11, as the Wolverines are now 2-5 straight-up and against the spread over their past seven outings.
-- In what is getting to be a regular occurrence, it was a wild day in the Pac-12. UCLA and Colorado locked horns in a double-overtime battle, with the Bruins outlasting the hard-luck Buffaloes, 40-37. The Buffs have lost four straight, but two games have required OT, and three of the games were lost by five points or less. The Buffaloes are 4-2 ATS over the past six, and the Over is 4-0 in the past four for Colorado.... Southern California was stunned in the waning moments against Utah, 24-21. See bad beats below.... Arizona State won 24-10 in soggy Seattle, as Washington managed just three points on offense.
-- It was all about the underdog in the Southeastern Conference, as the underdog cashed in five of six games. The only favorite to come through was Arkansas, stepping out of conference to throttle Alabama-Birmingham, 45-17. The Razorbacks are now 6-1 versus the spread over the past seven games, and the Over has hit in six of eight games for Bret Bielema's bunch.
•Mid-Major Report
-- In Conference USA action, the favorite cashed in four of the six outings. Marshall had its hands full until late in the third quarter before pulling away from Florida Atlantic, 35-16. FAU actually led 16-14 at half in Huntington, but the Thundering Herd stayed unbeaten by outscoring the Owls 21-0 in the second half.... Western Kentucky and Old Dominion combined for 117 points in the Hilltoppers' 66-51 win. The Over is 6-1 for WKU this season.
-- Massachusetts fell 42-35 at Toledo, as the Over hit again for the Minutemen. The Over is now 6-1-1 in the past eight for UMass, and they have covered in five straight, and seven of the past eight.... Northern Illinois won 28-17 on the road at Eastern Michigan. It was the fifth straight non-cover for the Huskies. Meanwhile, EMU has dropped six of seven, but they are 4-2 against the number over the past six.
-- In Sun Belt Conference action, Georgia Southern routed Georgia State 69-31. They have covered seven of their eight games, and the Over has hit in three straight, and five of the past seven. The Over has been a frequent play for Georgia State, too, going 3-0-1 Over the past four, and 6-1-1 in eight games overall.
-- UNLV might be 2-6 straight-up this season, but they have been showing signs of improvement lately. In fact, the Rebels are 3-1 versus the spread over the past four.... Hawaii entered Saturday's game 4-0 against the spread at home, but Nevada dropped them 26-18 in the islands. The Wolf Pack improved to 5-2 ATS over the past seven.
•Bad Beats
-- In the Alabama-Tennessee game, the Tide led 34-20 with about two minutes to go. Alabama looked to seal the game (and the cover), but they fumbled inside the Tennessee 5-yard line. It was a tough blow for bettors who appeared close to a cover.
-- Ohio State led 17-0 at halftime at Penn State, but the Nittany Lions flipped the score and outscored the Buckeyes 17-0 in the second half to force overtime. Under (53) bettors still has a chance, but the teams combined for 21 points to just push the total Over.
-- Moneyline bettors for Southern California looked to have a win in the bag. The Trojans were up 21-17, and driving. On fourth down in Utah territory, USC appeared to have a first down to seal the victory. However, WR Nelson Agholor stepped out of bounds before he was able to move the sticks. The Utes took over on downs, and moved down the field in short order for the game-winning touchdown with :08 left.
-- In Friday's action, California was getting 17 to 18 points, depending on your shop and when you placed your wager. The Golden Bears ended up scoring a late touchdown to pull within 18, making many Oregon bettors sweat. However, a failed two-point conversion hurt California side bettors, and made Oregon bettors ecstatic.
-- With a total of 56, Under bettors looked to have a win in the bag in Maryland-Wisconsin. The Badgers led 52-0 with less than a minute to go, but the Terrapins broke up the shutout with a touchdown with just :57 left to push the total Over.
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Week #10 Top-25 Matchups
Systems Analyst James Vogel
#311 NOTRE DAME vs. #312 NAVY - 8:00 PM
Navy has won just three times in this series since 1980 but they have covered in 20 of the last 31 meetings. Notre Dame has had two weeks to stew over what could have been after the narrow loss to Florida State. The Irish are still a legitimate national playoff contender but next week’s game at Arizona State looms heavier in that pursuit. Navy has struggled this season including ATS misses in four of the last five games but this will be a highly motivated underdog that is also the second most productive rushing team in the nation. Notre Dame has played to its competition all season and this may be a dangerous spot on the schedule.
#315 E CAROLINA @ #316 TEMPLE - 12:00 PM
Upset watch was on for East Carolina last week, caught in a tight game with Connecticut before escaping with a 10-point win. The Pirates have failed to cover in each of the last three wins as the early non-conference success has created steep pricing. It seems a given that ECU will play UCF for the league title at the end of the season and keeping focus through the November schedule as a heavy favorite will be challenging. Temple is now just 4-3 with three straight ATS losses and this is another team that has perhaps been overvalued for a great September. These teams have not met since 1995 and the Temple offense has struggled the last two weeks with just 24 combined points in back-to-back road losses. Temple has a strong home underdog track record but the Pirates need to impress.
#323 DUKE @ #324 PITTSBURGH - 12:00 PM
The Blue Devils are the only ACC Coastal team without two losses as repeating as division champions seems very possible. Duke was off last week heading into back-to-back road games, games Duke should win if they are to take the next step as a program. For Pittsburgh a big win over Virginia Tech soured with an embarrassing loss against Georgia Tech last week at home. Pittsburgh fell behind 28-0 in the first quarter and wound up with a turnover on each of its first five possessions. A third straight 6-6 season might be best case scenario for a Pittsburgh team that has respectable numbers with a strong rushing attack and a decent scoring defense but just can’t seem to consistently put it together. These teams played a wild 58-55 game early last season with Pittsburgh winning on the road while posting nearly 600 yards. Duke had four interceptions in that game but don’t expect Pittsburgh to be so sloppy again this week.
#339 PURDUE @ #340 NEBRASKA - 3:30 PM
This could be a dangerous game for Nebraska coming off a pair of convincing wins and sitting with a bye week and then a West division showdown with Wisconsin ahead. Purdue has covered in every away game this season and the offense has been transformed since sophomore Austin Appleby took over at quarterback. Purdue has scored at least 31 points in each of the last three games, beating Illinois on the road and playing respectably with Michigan State and Minnesota. The Boilermakers have had two weeks to get organized for this game and Nebraska has had some misleading finals in Big Ten play. That said the Nebraska running game can be overwhelming and the Huskers are still producing a great record in the home favorite role no matter the price.
#341 KANSAS @ #342 BAYLOR - 4:00 PM
The Bears have a great track record as a home favorite, even with steeply priced lines. Laying five touchdowns in a conference game seems absurd and while this is homecoming, a huge game with Oklahoma is up next. The Bears also may still be wondering what happened to its perfect season after losing at West Virginia two weeks ago. Kansas has played tough since the coaching change, covering twice and deserving to cover in its last game at Texas Tech with respectable losses of 19, 7, and 13 points. Baylor did win by 45 last season but the Bears have bigger fish to fry.
#345 AUBURN @ #346 OLE MISS - 7:00 PM
The Ole Miss defense was burned last week by the LSU running game, taking its first loss of the season. There are no breaks in the SEC West and another big game is waiting with Auburn visiting. Auburn won 30-22 at home against Ole Miss last season in a game where the Rebels had a substantial yardage edge. Last week Auburn survived a tough fight from South Carolina and the Tigers are just 1-4 ATS in the last five games after being on an incredible ATS run of success. The statistics are stronger for Auburn with both teams battling through brutally tough schedules and the emotional hangover could be significant for an Ole Miss team that had everything lined up for a perfect season with its toughest games at home.
#349 ARKANSAS @ #350 MISSISSIPPI ST - 7:15 PM
The Bulldogs might think they will be on cruise control until heading to Tuscaloosa in two weeks but this could be a dangerous game. The Bulldogs passed big home tests with Texas A&M and Auburn but Arkansas is a hungry underdog still seeking the first SEC win of the Bret Bielema era. Last season Arkansas lost depressingly in overtime in this matchup and the Razorbacks have played commendably in several games this season including taking Alabama down to the wire. Arkansas can run the ball and play solid defense making for an attractive double-digit underdog and the Hogs have won S/U in 12 of the last 15 meetings in this series.
#359 FLORIDA vs. #360 GEORGIA - 3:30 PM
Georgia is going to have an opportunity to play Auburn in a game that could propel the Bulldogs into the national conversation and it seems likely that the Bulldogs will also be heading to the SEC title game with a playoff spot possibly on the line. After a shaky September, Georgia dominated three October conference games including two difficult road contests as this team may be hitting its stride. This was a three-point game last season but Georgia had a dominant yardage edge and while this is the biggest spread in this series in some time, the Florida program is in tough shape right now. Florida has had great historical results in this series and still has a formidable defense but it will be a challenge to keep up this week.
#363 STANFORD @ #364 OREGON - 7:30 PM
The Stanford offense has struggled this season but a defense that has given Oregon fits in recent meetings has played well. The Cardinal won convincingly last week at home but everyone knows this will be the game of the season for the team. Oregon might appear to be back on track with three straight wins and covers but the running game could stall in this matchup as the offensive line has been vulnerable. The Ducks have also allowed 91 points in the last three wins despite narrowly covering in all three games. Stanford has covered in four of the last six meetings in this series and the underdog is 5-1 in that span. Stanford is allowing just 2.6 yards per rush this season as the defense will make Oregon work.
#365 OKLAHOMA @ #366 IOWA ST - 12:00 PM
The Sooners have had two weeks to get back on track after losing two of three games and riding a 0-3 ATS run. Last season Oklahoma won 48-10 in this matchup and while Iowa State has been known to generate an upset or two each season this does not look like a great spot to catch Oklahoma, even though the Sooners face Baylor next week. Iowa State has allowed at least 30 points in six of seven games this season and the Cyclones have covered in just two of the last nine meetings in this series. Iowa State should have better opportunities in the coming weeks as this looks like a tall order even with a rested team. Iowa State has competed well in the last two games with a win over Toledo and a narrow loss at Texas but the average margin of defeat is 25 points in 15 straight losses in this series.
#367 OKLAHOMA ST @ #368 KANSAS ST - 8:00 PM
The Cowboys have had a great track record under Mike Gundy but the last two weeks have featured back-to-back ugly losses for Oklahoma State. This will be a third road game in four weeks for Oklahoma State and this is certainly a difficult venue. Kansas State is quietly undefeated in Big XII play and the Wildcats may be the only hope for the Big XII in the national playoff. Some very tough games remain and the Wildcats have had some good fortune in big wins over Oklahoma and Texas the past two weeks, the two most prominent programs in the conference. Oklahoma State took advantage of turnovers to win in this series last season but Kansas State has had a dramatic edge in this series, covering in 14 of the last 18 meetings going back to 1988. This line has flipped four touchdowns from last season but Kansas State survived the flat spot last week.
#385 ARIZONA @ #386 UCLA - 7:00 PM
Both of these teams have had great drama this season with four of Arizona’s wins coming by seven or fewer points and five of UCLA’s wins coming by eight or fewer points. UCLA is 0-2 at home in Pac-12 play as this continues to be one of the more disappointing teams in the nation, still 6-2 but now 1-7 ATS. This is a second straight road game for Arizona after a win at Washington State last week and this was a tight game last season with UCLA winning 31-26 in Tucson. Two years ago Arizona lost 66-10 at the Rose Bowl and this might finally be the spot for the Bruins to come up with a complete performance this season.
#389 UTAH @ #390 ARIZONA ST - 11:00 PM
With three straight wins and starting quarterback Taylor Kelly back the Sun Devils look like the team to beat in the Pac-12 South. Utah has had a rabbit’s foot this season as they have won four of the last five games despite being out-gained in all of those contests. The three conference wins for the Utes have come by 11 points with one of those wins in overtime and the other two with scores in the final 30 seconds. Tempe has been a tough place to play and while the Utes lost just 20-19 last season they lost by 30 two years ago on the road in this series. ASU has Notre Dame up next but homecoming won’t be overlooked though the lucky Utes are tough to fade.
#391 TCU @ #392 W VIRGINIA - 3:30 PM
The Frogs have to still be hung up on blowing a big lead against Baylor but it has not shown the last two weeks with commanding wins for the nation’s top scoring team at over 50 points per game. All three conference wins have come at home for TCU however, as did the only meaningful non-conference win. West Virginia has won four straight games and with losses in tight games with Alabama and Oklahoma this is a Mountaineers team with a very credible resume. The winner of this game will be in position to take the conference title if they can also beat Kansas State. Last season West Virginia won 30-27 in overtime with turnovers setting up two late scores for the Mountaineers in a wild fourth quarter. Two years ago TCU won 39-38 in double-overtime and this should be an entertaining game. TCU has not been a profitable favorite in recent years, actually 0-5 ATS in the last five instances as a road favorite of fewer than 20 points. Oddly teams that have scored 80 or more points are just 6-9 S/U in the next game since 1988.
#403 ILLINOIS @ #404 OHIO ST - 8:00 PM
While Ohio State barely held on last week Illinois delivered a narrow win to snap a long conference losing streak. Illinois certainly caught some breaks but the team did not fold after surrendering its early lead. Bowl hopes are still alive for Illinois now at 4-4 but this might not be the best opportunity, though the Illini have a great ATS track record in this series, often as a heavy underdog. Ohio State has a season-making game with Michigan State up next so this certainly could be a flat spot after an emotional win where the team was tested at Penn State last week.
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Gridiron Trends - Week #10
Systems Analyst Erik Jeromin
•ARMY is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARMY 21.9, OPPONENT 39.5.
•NORTHWESTERN is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was NORTHWESTERN 20.7, OPPONENT 26.3.
•ILLINOIS is 4-25 (-36.5 Units) against the money line versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6.25 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was ILLINOIS 19.9, OPPONENT 36.4.
•BYU is 1-13 (-13.3 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992.
The average score was BYU 8.9, OPPONENT 17.1.
•OLE MISS is 12-0 UNDER (+12.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OLE MISS 9.5, OPPONENT 8.4.
•RUFFIN MCNEILL is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of EAST CAROLINA.
The average score was MCNEILL 28.7, OPPONENT 37.2.
•KEVIN WILSON is 14-1 OVER (+12.9 Units) off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival as the coach of INDIANA.
The average score was WILSON 28.2, OPPONENT 45.3.
•GARY PATTERSON is 19-1 (+21.9 Units) against the money line after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of TCU.
The average score was PATTERSON 38.0, OPPONENT 16.6.
•CHRIS PETERSEN is 12-1 (+10.9 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.75 rushing yards/carry in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was PETERSEN 29.4, OPPONENT 3.5.
•DANA HOLGORSEN is 15-2 OVER (+12.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season as the coach of WEST VIRGINIA.
The average score was HOLGORSEN 18.4, OPPONENT 25.0.
Situational Analysis Of The Week
•Play Against - A home team versus the money line (IOWA ST) - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28) after 7+ games, poor team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored.
(28-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (87.5%, +35.5 units. Rating = 7*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +140.9
The average score in these games was: Team 32.2, Opponent 23 (Average point differential = +9.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1, +21.6 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (52-22, +45.2 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (99-56, +64.2 units).
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