EXBOOKIE wants to help the players week 10

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EX BOOKIE
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Oct 20, 2003
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Bankroll $75k
investment 9-10 -$934.00
action 19-16 +$2207.00
Total 28-26 +$1273.00

sys 411 last 4 weeks 7-3 70%
more data the better a sys gets.

last year I was 27-31-1 -$23,755.00 and at the end I got it down to -$9200....for me it's was a good year 2nd half of the year...as I alway say...more data better picks....
so if I did what I did in the 2nd half We will be up $15,000 by the end of this season.

THATS MY GOAL

So what do you prefer: offense or defense?
Most casual bettors examining football like offense, which is why Monday Night Football often takes more action on the OVER.
There have been some terrific offensive football teams the last decade, such as Oregon and USC, along with pro passing attacks like the Broncos, the no-huddle Patriots and the Greatest Show on Turf Rams.
However, name the last few Super Bowl winners? The Seahawks, Ravens, Giants (twice), Packers, Saints, Steelers (twice), Colts, Pats (thrice) and Bucs. Everyone has been impressed with no-huddle Eagles and Patriots, but both have had bad defenses in recent years.
The Eagles were favored in the playoffs last January against the Saints but lost, and the Patriots got bounced from the AFC title game the last two years. Two years ago they were favored but the better defensive team (Baltimore) shut them down and went on to win the Super Bowl.
That Ravens team used their experienced defense to make a remarkable run through the postseason, upsetting the far better offensive teams (Broncos, Patriots), then came up with a goal line stand to win the Super Bowl. How appropriate.
Four years ago everyone was impressed with the high flying Green Bay offense, but the fact is their defense was very talented under Dom Capers in 2010, ranked fifth both in total defense and against the pass. The team they beat in the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh, was second in total defense, No. 1 against the run.
In 2008 the Arizona Cardinals had the flashy offense and were the big surprise, but the top defensive team in the league, Pittsburgh, topped them in the big game. In 2007 defense shut down offense as the Giants topped the record-setting Patriots’ offense.
Like last year, the 2002 season saw the Super Bowl become a fascinating matchup pitting the No. 1 offense, Oakland, against the No. 1 defense Tampa Bay. The Raiders averaged 28.1 points per game, while the Bucs ranked 18th in scoring with 21.6 ppg. This is partly why the Raiders were a 4-point favorite on Super Sunday, but the outcome was Tampa Bay, 48-21.
Defense, in all sports, doesn’t get the publicity a flashy, exciting offense does, but there is so much truth in that age-old adage: “Defense wins championships.” Pittsburgh won four Super Bowl titles in six years from 1975-80 with Hall-of-Famers Terry Bradshaw, Lynn Swann and Franco Harris on offense. But the cornerstone of that run was a defense for the ages led by L.C. Greenwood, Joe Greene, Mel Blount and Jack Ham.
Note that six of the last 12 Super Bowl champions had major deficiencies on offense, yet won with strong all-around defenses. Last season the Ravens were 16th in total offense, and in an age where passing is all the rage they ranked only 15th in passing.
Two years ago the Giants were dead last in rushing the football. Many laughed at the Baltimore Ravens in 2000 when they went five straight games without an offensive touchdown, but the Ravens laughed all the way to the Super Bowl, going 14-5-1 ATS dominating with a ferocious defense.
Last year’s Seahawks were a defensive powerhouse and dominated the favored Broncos in the Super Bowl, 43-8. Chalk up another victory for great defense against great offense! Offense may get all the TV highlights, but defense is still the more likely key to football success.
 

EX BOOKIE
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My other system. Myline is 6-8 on the year....after I did my homework ( you don't use all of them..it's just point to value in the line)
I did 4-3. It's a good start.
this week myline
CINN -1
BAL -11
KC -11
DET pk
DAL -7.5
NO -4.5
PIT -9
ATL -2.5
DEN -8.5
AZ -7.5
SEA -5.5
GB -4
PHI -4.5

you know its a good sys when 80% of the lines are within 6 points. This week it's 93%. Only one with value is KC


ACE
 

EX BOOKIE
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STATS VS ATS

HOME 62
AWAY 71

DOG 63
FAV 71

OV 72
UN 72

POINTS THAT MATTER 24 out of 134 games 18%

Ace
 

EX BOOKIE
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My other system. Myline is 6-8 on the year....after I did my homework ( you don't use all of them..it's just point to value in the line)
I did 4-3. It's a good start.
this week myline
CINN -1
BAL -11
KC -11
DET pk
DAL -7.5
NO -4.5
PIT -9
ATL -2.5
DEN -8.5
AZ -7.5
SEA -5.5
GB -4
PHI -4.5

you know its a good sys when 80% of the lines are within 6 points. This week it's 93%. Only one with value is KC


ACE

MISTAKE. PIT IS -10.5 and a MYLINE pick
 

EX BOOKIE
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[h=1]HOW SHARPS ARE BETTING NFL WEEK 10[/h]DALLAS AT JACKSONVILLE (in London): Oddsmakers waited a few days to learn what they could about the status of Tony Romo. He’s been practicing in London, and is expected to play injured, which means estimating a point value for the “hobbled” version of Romo. The first numbers up were near a TD on the neutral field. As I write this report, many stores still have the game off the board. Early guesses at a total are around 45.
MIAMI AT DETROIT: Sharps have been in love with Miami in recent weeks, and hit the Dolphins fairly hard at the opener of +3. The game moved off the most important number in football down to +2.5, and didn’t move back. So, that’s a strong indicator for underdog support. Miami will also be a popular choice at +8.5 in two-team teasers if the line doesn’t move any more. If sharps loved the Dolphins at +3, they’ll really love them at +8 or +8.5. The total opened at 42.5 and has been bet up a point to 43.5. I’ll only mention totals when there’s been a move of at least a point.
KANSAS CITY AT BUFFALO: Kansas City has also been a popular sharp team in recent weeks, and also drew early support here. An opener of -1 has been bet up to -1.5 or -2 for the short road favorite. Note that the move puts Buffalo in the teaser window as a home dog of +7.5 or +8 in two teamers. Basic strategy for teasers is to cross both the 3 and the 7 at one time. Miami and Buffalo are both projected to be qualifiers for that approach. In this game, many sharps will be rooting for Kansas City -1 and Buffalo +8 because the middle of that range is such a high percentage strike point. Totals bettors hit Under 43 on the opener. I’m now seeing 42 in most stores.
SAN FRANCISCO AT NEW ORLEANS: New Orleans was a strong Wise Guy bet out of the gate. Oddsmakers put up an opener of -3.5, which is right above a critical number. Even though three is the most common final margin for NFL games, the line moved forcefully away from the three. New Orleans is now -5 or -5.5 across the board. And, some square stores are testing the six. Sharps were impressed with what the Saints did the last two weeks vs. Green Bay and Carolina, and think that SF’s dismal showing vs. St. Louis last week is another sign that the Harbaugh era is fading quickly. Always pay attention when a line moves aggressively awayfrom a key number.
TENNESSEE AT BALTIMORE: The Ravens opened at -10.5, but the big road underdog Tennessee has been bet through the key number of 10…and we’re now seeing a tug-of-war between Baltimore -9.5 and Tennessee +10. Old school money that likes any double digit dog is part of the story here. But, Baltimore has looked pretty shaky recently. And, that road loss at Cincinnati looks even worse now that Cleveland won so easily on that same field. This won’t be a heavily bet game by the public. Sharps would fade any square game day money coming in on the favorite.
PITTSBURGH AT NY JETS: One of the odd NFL betting stories of the year here in Las Vegas is that sharp money keeps coming in on the Jets every week, only to get embarrassed when the results are in the book. Even though the Jets keep struggling, an opener of red hot Pittsburgh -5.5 is now down to -4. Like clockwork…on a clock that might need to be fixed. Pittsburgh would take over sole possession of first place in the AFC North with a straight up win.
ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY: The Falcons opened at -1 and have been bet up to -2.5. Sharp money would definitely come in at the full three on the home dog against a non-contending road favorite. If the game stays here, Tampa Bay will be in the teaser window and will be a popular choice in two-teamers at +8.5. Syndicates liking Atlanta bet early figuring that would be the best line they’d see. Tampa Bay money is waiting for a three if public action makes it happen, but will settle for +8.5 in teasers if need be. The Over/Under opened at 47.5, and has been bet down to 46.
DENVER AT OAKLAND: Another game that moved away from a critical number at the open. Though, it’s a less common critical number and partly a position-taking move on a public favorite. Denver opened at -10.5 and was bet up to -11 or -11.5 depending on the store. Underdog money is waiting to see how high it goes before coming in, particularly the old school guys that like double digit dogs even better when it’s a divisional rivalry. The late card isn’t particularly strong this week…so it’s possible that Denver will get hit hard by squares just because there are so few appealing games to bet. Sharps might wait until 15 minutes before kickoff before investing their Raiders money.
ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: This one opened on the key number of seven. St. Louis was the sharp choice at that price…though a tug-of-war has developed between Arizona -6.5 and St. Louis +7. That may continue until kickoff because this isn’t a high appeal game for the public. If squares do take the home favorite because of its won-lost record, sharps would back the divisional dog at +7 or better. Big move on the total by this week’s standards. An opener of 45 has been bet down to 43. Most games have stayed on or near the opener because oddsmakers have largely cracked the algorithm code used in the NFL by quants. In that context, a move of two points seems huge.
NY GIANTS AT SEATTLE: Very little interest here on the openers of Seattle -9 and 45. Neither team is giving bettors much to have confidence in at this price. New York was overmatched by Indianapolis, and is short on weaponry. Seattle has lost several steps from last season, and had trouble getting distance from lowly Oakland on this field last week. The public has so few games to bet late that there may be a lot of square action right before kickoff. Sharps would fade any moves off the current numbers. (Note that the total is now 44.5 in most stores, just a very slight move Under).
CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY (Sunday Night): After a day lacking glamor, this classic rivalry may bring in a lot of bored money by default. We’re already seeing a tug-of-war between Green Bay -7 and Chicago +7.5. It’s harder to predict public money with 100% confidence when the Bears play because Chicago has been known to draw support as a public dog. Of course, squares like betting Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at affordable prices. So, this could be a heavily bet game tug-of-war with split sharp/square sentiment on both sides. Sportsbooks will root very hard for the game to NOT land on the seven. If it does, Green Bay money would push, and Chicago money would win. Disaster for a sportsbook. The total has been bet up from 52 to 53.5, probably on the memory that the first meeting between these teams a few weeks ago didn’t have a single punt!
CAROLINA AT PHILADELPHIA (Monday Night): Carolina has looked so bad in recent weeks that sharps have been betting on Mark Sanchez! An opener of Philadelphia -5.5 is now up to -6.5 at most stores…and the full seven might be tested soon. Sharp money will very likely come in if seven gets tested. Will the public bet on Sanchez during the day Monday? That’s going to be interesting to see. He did move the ball last week in Houston but threw two interceptions. For now, Philadelphia money isn’t afraid to hit the market, while Carolina money is waiting to see what it can get. The total hasn’t moved at all from the opener of 48. Any game day moves on the total would likely be weather related. Basically, if the total drops, that’s from sharps possibly getting word on game conditions that could hurt scoring. If the total goes up, that’s from the public wanting to root for points. Less likely in a QB matchup of banged up Cam Newton vs. untrustworthy Mark Sanchez.


 

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Ace is that tout talk, still plus money? Feel for those who jumped aboard yesterday for the first time and was let down. Good luck today on your 2 public plays.
 

EX BOOKIE
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All plays today will be early games ....two 411 plays ,3 investment . Two action play..one dog

Best to all

Ace
 

EX BOOKIE
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Ace is that tout talk, still plus money? Feel for those who jumped aboard yesterday for the first time and was let down. Good luck today on your 2 public plays.


Most know it's about the long run ...not the short run

but
it did sound like a tout. Trying to make a point....LOL...sorry about that....
 

EX BOOKIE
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NO -5.....................$2500.00 -108 411 play
Pit -4.5.........................$2000.00 -107 411 play
KC -1.5.........................$2000.00 -105
Mia +3...........................$800.00 -108
ATL -2...........................$600.00 -108
 

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Saints going to OT but Buffalo not kicking the FG and going on 4th down was a gift

GL in OT
 

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25 down at doc. Me it was -2236...worst week of the season...still plus money.
extra juice for your clients since they probably bought to get 7 in memphis and 14 in ga southern that were not even close to being widely available, so 27.8 sorry I was off. Not plus money for any of your clients
 

EX BOOKIE
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extra juice for your clients since they probably bought to get 7 in memphis and 14 in ga southern that were not even close to being widely available, so 27.8 sorry I was off. Not plus money for any of your clients

Why do you only show up when I lose. Talking about the whole season I'm up....
last 3 week ....last 4 week. Up 3 ..even one......
 

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