Service Plays Friday 11/7/14

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Dr. Bob :

***Utah State (-6) 32 WYOMING 17

Fri Nov-07-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 115 Over/Under 46.0

Utah State has a very good defense and the Aggies became an underrated team when Darell Garretson took over for an ineffective and injured Chuckie Keeton in the middle of their week 3 game against Wake Forest. I had a couple of Best Bet winners with Utah State with Garretson at quarterback (their upset win as a 21 point dog at BYU and an 18 point win over Air Force) but Garretson was injured against Colorado State and 3rd string quarterback Harrison played at the same low level that Keeton played at. Harrison suffered a knee injury late against UNLV in week 9 and it looks like the quarterback position may be back in good hands with freshman Kent Myers, who has completed 17 of 20 passes while averaging 9.8 yards per pass play. That’s obviously a small sample, but it’s doubtful that a bad quarterback would complete 17 of 20 passes and Myers was very accurate playing high school ball in Texas, where he completed 71% of his passes with 42 touchdown passes against just 5 interceptions. I realize that there is a big difference between high school and college but accuracy is accuracy and it translates well at the next level. Obviously, I don’t expect Myers to continue to complete 85% of his passes but he should be able to play at or close to the level that Garretson played at and I’d favor Utah State by 14 points in this game even if he played at the average level of the Utah State quarterbacks. I think he’ll be even better than that and it doesn’t even take a special quarterback to move the ball against a sub-par Wyoming defense that’s allowed 6.2 yards per play this season to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team. The unit is even worse lately with multiple injuries to key defensive players, including LB Mark Nzeocha, who is their best defensive player, and 2 starting defensive backs (and a 3rd, Jesse Sampson, is questionable). My math model had Utah State moving the ball well even before adjusting for Wyoming’s injury situation and the Aggies should score around 30 points barring an unforeseen breakout of turnovers.

Utah State’s defense continues to play consistently well, as the Aggies have allowed between 14 and 24 points in 8 consecutive games while yielding just 4.6 yards per play for the season (against teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Wyoming’s loss of star RB Shaun Wick (705 yards at 6.3 ypr) doesn’t seem as painful after Brian Hill’s big game last week at Fresno and Hill is now averaging 6.4 ypr – so Wyoming’s rushing attack still rates at 0.5 yards per rushing play better than average. However, Utah State is very good defending the run, allowing just 3.8 yprp this season (to teams that would average 4.7 yprp against an average team). The Aggies are also good against the pass and Wyoming’s mediocre pass attack is projected to be limited to a modest 5.7 yards per pass play in this game while the rushing attack projects at 4.7 yprp. Overall, the Cowboys’ attack is projected to slowed to 317 yards at 5.2 yppl, which will make it tough to keep up with a Utah State offense seemingly once again in capable hands.

The math model liked Utah State here before adjusting for an improved quarterback situation for Utah State and for Wyoming’s banged up defense and I’ll take Utah State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -8 and for 1-Star up to -9

Ben burns

main event - wyoming

FSOTB - Fat Side of the Bacon
WYOMING PLUS 6 1/2-7

Fezzik | CFB Side
double-dime bet 113 Memphis -7.0 (-115) Bookmaker.com vs 114 Temple
Analysis: Two Star Best Bet
Pick Made: Nov 3 2014 7:31AM PST

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | MEMPHIS at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points slow-down team averaging 76 or less shots/game on the season against opponent after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less
44-17 since 1997. ( 72.1% | 25.3 units )

NBA | CLEVELAND at DENVER
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game
106-26 since 1997. ( 80.3% | 50.3 units )

NBA | INDIANA at BOSTON
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points after 1 or more consecutive losses, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )

StatFox Super Situations

NHL | COLUMBUS at CAROLINA
Play On - Road underdogs of +100 to +200 against the money line (COLUMBUS) off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals, playing with 2 days rest
41-18 since 1997. ( 69.5% | 38.3 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.3 units )

StatFox Super Situations

CFL | EDMONTON at SASKATCHEWAN
Play Against - Any team (EDMONTON) good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 9+ games, after allowing 325 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games
24-4 since 1997. ( 85.7% | 19.6 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

CFL | CALGARY at BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play On - Underdogs vs. the money line (CALGARY) versus division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite
32-22 since 1997. ( 59.3% | 0.0 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

CFL | MONTREAL at HAMILTON
Play Against - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (MONTREAL) after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team
35-9 since 1997. ( 79.5% | 25.1 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 3.0 units )

[h=1]Today's CFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Calgary at BC[/h] The Lions (9-8 SU) host a Calgary team that is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games against a team with a winning SU record. Calgary is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

NHL

Hot teams
-- Hurricanes won last three games, allowing four goals.
-- Ducks won 10 of last 13 games, are 3-3 in last six. Arizona won its last two games but is 1-5 on the road this season.

Cold teams
-- Buffalo lost seven of last nine games. Oilers lost last four games, scoring six goals.
-- Columbus lost its last six games, allowing 25 goals.
-- Detroit lost its last three games, scoring six goals. Devils lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Chicago is 3-5 in its last eight games; they lost 1-0 in last two home games. Washington lost its last five games, allowing 22 goals.

Series records
-- Sabres won four of last five games with Edmonton.
-- Blue Jackets lost three of last four games with Carolina.
-- Devils lost five of their last eight games with Detroit.
-- Capitals won four of last six games with Chicago.
-- Coyotes lost six of last seven games with Anaheim.

Totals
-- Under is 8-0-2 in last ten Buffalo games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Carolina games.
-- Five of last seven New Jersey games stayed under.
-- Last five Washington games went over the total; under is 8-1-2 in last 11 Chicago games.
-- Last ten Anaheim games stayed under the total.

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Minnesota is 4-0 vs spread, splitting four games, all decided by seven or less points.
-- Bulls won last three games, by 1-8-9 points; they're 3-0 on road.
-- Washington won its last four games. Raptors won four of their first five games (2-0 as HF).
-- Memphis won its first five games, covered last four.
-- Sacramento won four of its first five games.
-- Utah won its last two home games, by 27-2 points. Mavericks won their last three games.

Cold Teams
-- Hornets lost three of their last four games. Atlanta lost first two road games, by 7-2 points.
-- Magic lost four of its first five games (0-2 as HU).
-- 76ers lost their first five games (2-3 vs spread).
-- Indiana lost last four games, but is 2-0 as a road dog. Celtics lost last three games, by 14-5-3 points.
-- Knicks lost last two games, by 15-3 points. Brooklyn split its first four games (1-1 at home).
-- Milwaukee is 2-3 in first five games; they're 2-1 as road dogs. Pistons lost three of first four games (0-4 vs spread).
-- Thunder lost four of their last five games.
-- Suns lost two of their last three games.
-- Denver lost last three games, by 11-5-22 points. Cavaliers lost three of their first four games.

Series Records
-- Hawks won 11 of last 12 games with Charlotte.
-- Minnesota lost last six visits to Orlando, all by 8+ points.
-- 76ers lost seven of their last eight games with Chicago.
-- Pacers won last four games with Boston, three by 11+ points.
-- Knicks won 11 of last 15 games with Nets; they're 4-1 in Brooklyn.
-- Pistons won six of last eight games with Milwaukee.
-- Raptors won four of last five games with Washington.
-- Thunder beat Memphis 4-3 in playoffs LY, after being down 3-2, in a series where Games 2-5 all went to OT.
-- Suns are 7-4 in their last eleven games with Sacramento.
-- Mavericks won last six games with Utah (4-2 vs spread).
-- Underdogs covered four of last five Cleveland-Denver games; Cavs won both meetings LY, by 10-8 points.

Totals
-- Over is 9-3 in last twelve Atlanta-Charlotte games.
-- Both Orlando home games went over total.
-- Three of last four Philly games stayed under total.
-- Three of four Boston games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-4 in last dozen New York-Brooklyn games.
-- Three of four Detroit games stayed under total.
-- Four of five Toronto games went over the total.
-- Last three Memphis games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Sacramento-Phoenix games went over.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in Utah's last four games.
-- Four of last five Cleveland-Denver games stayed under.

Bryan Leonard

Memphis / Temple Under

[h=1]Today's NBA Picks[/h] [h=2]Milwaukee at Detroit[/h] The Bucks head to Detroit tonight to face a Pistons team that is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games. Milwaukee is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Pistons favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+4 1/2). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

[h=1]Today's NHL Picks[/h] [h=2]Columbus at Carolina[/h] The Blue Jackets travel to Carolina tonight and come into the contest with a 1-7 record in their last 8 Friday games. Carolina is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Hurricanes favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-145). Here are all of today's NHL picks.

Game of the Day: Memphis at Temple

Memphis Tigers at Temple Owls (+7.5, 50.5)

Temple threw the American Athletic Conference into a state of chaos with its win over East Carolina last weekend and can further muddy the waters Friday when it hosts Memphis. The Owls secured one of the biggest victories in school history with an upset of the then-No. 19 Pirates, marking their first win over a ranked foe since 1998 and first such triumph at home. Not only did Temple move within a half-game of the league lead, but created a five-team logjam at the top of the AAC.

One of the those five teams is the Tigers, who can match their highest win total since making their last bowl appearance in 2008 by improving to 3-0 on the road in the conference. Memphis, which won consecutive games for the first time this season following last weekend’s 40-20 home victory versus Tulsa, can double its win total from a season ago with a win in any of its last four contests. The Tigers’ sights should be set much higher than that, however, as their final three opponents after the Owls are a combined 7-18 and buried among the bottom five teams in the conference.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU.

LINE HISTORY: Memphis opened favored by a converted touchdown and have been bet to -7.5. The total opened at 52.5 and have been bet down to 50.5.

INJURY REPORT: Memphis - UT Sam Craft (questionable Friday, undisclosed). Temple - OL Brendan McGowan (questionable Friday, shoulder), OL Shahbaz Ahmed (questionable Friday, ankle), LB Jarred Alwan (questionable Friday, undisclosed).

WEATHER REPORT: Temperatures will be in the mid 40's with a 11 mile per hour wind gusting towards the south end zone at Lincoln Financial Field. There will also be a 14 percent chance of rain.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Last week's upset win at home over East Carolina was aided by a whopping five turnovers by the Pirates. The Owls can't count on such a fortunate run of luck when they host the Memphis Tigers on Friday night." - Jesse Schule.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Nice line was set on this game, as Memphis still remains -7.5. Just a small decision on game so far, as 53 percent of cash is backing Memphis. No sharp action on the side, but we got sharp bet on the under 52.5, so we now at 50 on the game. Sixty percent of cash is on the under." - Mike Jerome.

ABOUT MEMPHIS (5-3, 5-2-1 ATS, 5-3 O/U): The Tigers were held scoreless in the first quarter for the first time all season against Tulsa, but still managed to post more than 30 points for the sixth time after doing so only once in 2013. Brandon Hayes ran for a personal-best 199 yards – tied for the 16th-best mark in school history – including a career-long 51-yard gallop with 14 seconds remaining in the first half that gave Memphis the lead for good. "(That run) was unbelievable … he really bailed us out on that play. I mean, he was fantastic; he was huge for us," Tigers coach Justin Fuente told reporters after the game.

ABOUT TEMPLE (5-3, 4-4 ATS, 3-5 O/U): Despite being outgained 428-135, the Owls held what was the conference’s most explosive offense without a touchdown for the first 57:45 in part because they blocked a field goal and recovered a season-high five fumbles. Temple has allowed only 10 fourth-quarter points this season and East Carolina’s late touchdown was the first one the Owls have allowed in the final 15 minutes since the second-to-last game of the 2013 season. Temple is tied with Florida International for the FBS lead in fumble recoveries (16) and has forced nine more turnovers in 2014 (24) than it did all of last season during a 2-10 campaign (15).

TRENDS:

* Memphis is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games versus a team with a winning record.
* Temple is 5-1 ATS in its last six games versus a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-1 in Memphis' last six conference games.
* Over is 5-1-1 in Temple's last seven Friday games.

CONSENSUS: Just over 53 percent of wagers are backing Temple at +7.5.

Cappers Access

NCAAF

Temple +7.5

Wyoming +7


NBA

Orlando Magic +2.5

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play Mav's -3

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Friday

Utah/Dallas over 207

TWolves -2.5

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Clemson (+21-1/2) on Thursday and likes Memphis (college football) on Friday.

The deficit is 873 sirignanos.