Sportswagers
NEW ORLEANS -5½ -110 over San Francisco
The 49ers offensive line is a complete mess. The projected line of LT Joe Staley, LG Mike Iupati, C Daniel Kilgore, RG Alex Boone and RT Anthony Davis got to play together for all of one quarter this season. Now a rookie, Marcus Martin, is at center after Kilgore's season-ending broken left ankle suffered in Denver two games back. This is becoming a bigger problem every week. Last week, Colin Kaepernick was sacked eight times by the Rams last week. San Fran has given up 14 sacks over the past two games. The 49ers 4-4 record is one of the most misleading marks in the NFL. San Fran could easily be 1-7 after they had no business defeating the Eagles and they also got extremely lucky in its win in St. Louis after an 80-yard pass to end the first half changed everything in that game with the 49ers down 14-3. Their other win was over K.C. at home by 5 points. Kaepernick is a pea brain. He makes so many bad decisions and it’s catching up to him. Now he’s been hit hard and knocked down repeatedly for two weeks running. Playing in this hostile environment, where it’s difficult for the opposition to run an offense, Kaepernick’s pea brain figures to be on full display here.
The Saints are also 4-4, which has them undervalued. Pay no attention to that record, as it’s a product of bad luck. In fact, the Saints' offense was playing better than people realized when they started 2-4. They rank first in the NFL in yards per play and offensive efficiency. Their biggest problem has been turnovers, as Drew Brees has thrown eight interceptions, and they've lost a whopping seven fumbles. Other than that, Brees has been sharp. He leads the NFL in completion percentage and he has finally started to hit on deep balls over the past three weeks. More importantly, the Saints are as balanced as they've ever been in the Brees-Sean Payton era, with the run game turning into a real strength. Mark Ingram ran for 172 yards two weeks ago against Green Bay and another 100 last week at Carolina. The Saints defense has improved also, which gives the Saints' offense even more opportunities. The Saints have won 20 straight home games with Sean Payton on the sideline. They have had three extra days to prepare and now they’ll play a sinking ship. Drew Brees at home against Colin Kaepernick is a mismatch of mammoth proportions and now we get to spot less than an unconverted TD? Man, are the 49ers overvalued here so now is the time to take advantage.
NOTE: No way is this line coming down but it could very well move up so bet ASAP if you’re on board with the Saints.
Our Pick
NEW ORLEANS -5½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
BALTIMORE -9½ -110 over Tennessee
Pssst. I’ve got a hot fantasy tip for you but keep it to yourself. We need to keep this on the down-low. Here it is: start any team defense you can against the Titans and you didn’t hear it from me. With all due respect to the Raiders, Jags and Jets, Tennessee is about the least relevant team in the league. At least those other three are interesting but there is nothing interesting about the Titans. Losers of six of their last seven games, the Titans hand the ball to rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger, who makes the first road start of his career. In his first game, Zach Mettenberger passed for 299 yards and two scores versus the Texans while losing a fumble and throwing one interception. Those are great numbers for a debut game but it came at home and most of it happened after the Titans were far behind (garbage time). The Titans have nothing. Their offense can’t move five yards and their defense is worse.
It’s now November and the Ravens current steak of nine victories in a row at home in November is not about to end. The Ravens are also in a foul mood after getting creamed by Pittsburgh in prime time last week. Joe Flacco's efficiency passing rating of 90.7 is the second-best of his career and he’s also seen a decrease in the number of sacks (13 in nine games). Gary Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme has made the Ravens the 10th-ranked rushing attack in the league. That's their highest ranking since 2011. The knock on Kubiak in Houston was that he was too predictable but this is the most balanced offense under Coach John Harbaugh. Even though the Ravens have struggled recently on offense, no one can argue with the results. The Ravens went from being the 29th-best offense last season to the ninth-best unit this year. The Ravens have played three teams with losing records (the Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons) and they've beaten them by a combined score of 115-34. The dreadful Titans are their next victim.
NOTE: This line is not coming down but it could very well move up so bet ASAP if you’re on board with the Ravens.
Our Pick
BALTIMORE -9½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
DETROIT -2½ -109 over Miami
If we’re sticking with our buy-low/sell-high theory then the Lions have to be the play because Miami’s stock is soaring after they pounded San Diego last week by a score of 37-0. The Fish have now won three in a row and four of its past five. They have also averaged 30 points a game over their past five. Miami looked as sharp as a whip last week and that makes them tough to bet against. However, Miami has also run into some teams at precisely the right time in that they ran into them when they were going bad. Miami’s four wins occurred Oakland, Jacksonville, the reeling Bears and the suddenly reeling Chargers. The Dolphins win over Jacksonville was unimpressive and prior to their hot streak, Miami was rocked by Buffalo by 19 points and by Kansas City by 19 points. Furthermore, the Dolphins now travel to an NFC city to play indoors on artificial turf and that just does not mix with Miami. Finally, the Dolphins have a huge game on deck next week against Buffalo and that game just happens to be in prime time on Thursday night. With their stock soaring, this is a hugely vulnerable spot for the Dolphins.
Detroit is coming off that last second win over Atlanta early on a Sunday morning two weeks ago. They’ve had two weeks to prepare and they’ve been rock solid at home with a 21-point win over the Giants, a 12-point win over Green Bay and a 1-point victory over the Saints. When the Lions lost at home to Buffalo by three, they were without several key players but they responded the following week with a 14-point win in Minnesota. The Lions are allowing 15.8 points a game and they’re the only team in the NFL giving up fewer than 17 points a game. Calvin Johnson is expected to return from his ankle injury and when you talk about difference makers, this guy is near the top. Reports are that Megatron looked crisp in practice and seems to be as close to 100 percent this far into a season as he has been in a long time. Miami is right in the middle of the NFL at allowing sacks (on 5.9 percent of the Dolphins’ drop-backs) so it could be a tough day for Ryan Tannehill. The Lions have faced quarterbacks with at least some mobility this season in a still-recovering Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater and Geno Smith and have done a good job keeping them pretty hemmed in the pocket. Miami still has plenty to prove before they can be trusted as a legit team that plays consistently good football from week to week. Detroit has been playing consistently well at home for years and while these two both have a history of second half collapses, Miami is likely the first to crumble in this horrible scheduling spot.
NOTE: We doubt this line hits -3 and we doubt it moves much at all so the recommendation would be to play it now.
Our Pick
DETROIT -2½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)
TAMPA BAY +129 over Atlanta
56-14. That was the score in the Falcons favor when these two met in Atlanta on a Thursday night back in Week 3. 56-0. That was the score after three quarters. One has to figure a response is in order by the Buccaneers but this is more about fading the Dirty Birds as road chalk. Since the start of 2013, Atlanta's record on the road is 1-11, including 0-4 this season. Losing five in a row is wearing on the Falcons and losing by a single point to the Lions made it even worse since they had to stew about it over the bye. The Falcons virtually have no defense and no running game. The only consistency in the Falcons backfield is that they are using four different running backs every week and ensuring that not one of them is productive. The Falcons have lost every road game by 10 or more, which includes a 10-point loss to the Giants and a 13-point loss in Minnesota. Furthermore, Mike Smith is the worst coach in the NFL that seems to be surviving on the fumes of who knows what. And from the looks of him, those fumes probably smell like tanning bed funk and cedar chips. This is a bad football team that has demonstrated repeatedly that they have no business laying weight on the road.
Tampa Bay's defense ranks No. 31 overall, which is shocking and disappointing when you're talking about a team coached by Lovie Smith. This week is the best shot for a Bucs victory on the remaining schedule. It it doesn't happen here, it may very well not happen this year. This is the only remaining home game against a team with a losing record and this is the game the Bucs want more than any other. At least the Bucs are competing these days. They went into New Orleans and were a fraction away from defeating the Saints, ultimately losing it in OT. The week prior, they went into Pittsburgh and won as an 8-point pooch. The past two weeks, the Bucs have lost by a combined 11 points and one of those was a 6-point OT loss against Minnesota. The other was a five-point loss against Cleveland last week in Cleveland. The Bucs also lost their first two games by a combined 8 points. Tampa has been in a strong position to win six games this year but has just one win. The Bucs are a lot closer to respectability than the Falcons and they’ve also been more competitive against better teams. The Falcons are favored here because of that 56-14 loss but games like that happen from time to time and we put zero weight on it. This has nothing to do with revenge. Instead it’s about fading a team that can’t be favored on the road against anyone and certainly not against this competitive bunch.
NOTE: We’re going to wait until Sunday because this line has a great chance of going to +3 and if that happens, we’ll take the points. If it remains 2½ or drops, we’ll play the Bucs on the money line. If you like Atlanta, play them now because it’s likely to go to three but we wouldn’t play Atlanta on the road laying points with counterfeit money.
NFL Historical - Totals
| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 9 | 12 | 0.00 | -6.50 |
| Season to Date | 33 | 32 | 0.00 | +1.34 |
