NCAAB Rankings - 25-1
By The SportsBoss
While we still have weeks before the 2014-2015 college basketball season tips off there is always the craving for solid analytics in any sport – perhaps the most popular is college basketball since it has 330-plus teams, driving significant alumni interest & opportunities to profit wagering.
Last season I wrapped up development & released the SportsBoss Power Index (SBPI), a comprehensive model that measures how strong each team in the country performs by grading 10 statistics on both offense & defense followed by adjusting performance based on SOS.
Listed below are my Top 100 SBPI teams of the last 12 seasons:
#25: 2008 Duke 408.2 [28-6] – still in the ’08 season like the team above this Duke squad was SBPI #3 but was the only top 5 SBPI team to NOT reach the Final Four that season. Instead, as a #2 seed, they bowed out to #7 seed West Virginia in the 2nd round. Keep in mind though that WVU team was SBPI #6, suggesting they were woefully under seeded heading into the tournament, and thus this matchup should have never occurred that early.
#24: 2011 Purdue 408.5 [26-8] – the best Boilermakers club (along with #85 the only two in the Top 100) of the last 12 seasons was the 2011 version that had an SBPI of #2 yet only received a #3 seed and fell in the 2nd round to SBPI #46 VCU by a wide 18 point margin. Perhaps no shame in losing to VCU as they would go all the way to the Final Four before falling to Butler in the semifinals, but it was surely a disappointment for the Purdue faithful.
#23: 2009 North Carolina 409.1 [34-4] – the ultra-talented Tar Heels of 2009 were just SBPI #4 that season but were properly placed as a #1 seed and HAMMERED everyone on their way to another national title. Here are the margins of victory in each game, starting with the first round & ending with the championship game win over Michigan State in Detroit: 43, 14, 21, 12, 14, 17. Their performance in the 2009 NCAA Tournament was one of the all-time best.
#22: 2005 Villanova 410.8 [26-9] – this is the 2nd best Villanova team of the last 12 seasons & will be remembered by the “phantom” travelling call against Allan Ray during a Sweet 16 game vs. UNC in Syracuse. This was Nova’s first NCAA appearance under Jay Wright, and was the Jr. season for what some ranked as the #1 recruiting class of 2002 that included Randy Foye, Allan Ray, Curtis Sumpter & Jason Fraser. This team checked in at SBPI #2, only behind UNC whom they would face in the Sweet 16 – far too early for that matchup. Villanova lost F Curtis Sumpter in the 2nd round win over Florida & thus went down by 1 point to UNC. Those Tar Heels would go on to win their 4th national title that season.
#21: 2003 Kansas 410.8 [30-8] – KU of 2003 was SBPI #2 yet were passed over for a #1 seed settling on the #2 line. It did not matter to these Jayhawks who reached the national title game before falling to SBPI #14 Syracuse. As mentioned above that was Boeheim’s first & only national title as the Orange were led by freshman F Carmelo Anthony.
#20: 2009 Michigan State 411.5 [31-7] – these Spartans were SBPI #3 but just like the above Jayhawks they fell to the #2 line. And again similar to KU above Sparty went on a run to the national title game before falling to SBPI #4 North Carolina in blowout fashion in Detroit.
#19: 2013 Indiana 414.5 [29-7] – the only Hoosiers team on the list is this version whom checked in at SBPI #2. The Big Ten regular season champs earned a #1 seed and reached the Sweet 16 before falling in DC to Syracuse, who was well under seeded as a #4 with an SBPI of #6. Having a pair of SBPI Top 6 teams meeting in the Sweet 16 is far too early, and the Cuse took advantage with their zone defense to stifle the Hoosiers high powered offense. Syracuse would go on to destroy Big East rival Marquette in the Elite 8 before falling to Michigan in the national semifinals.
#18: 2005 North Carolina 415.2 [33-4] – perhaps only 2nd to the 2009 version (which can be debated) this UNC squad oozed NBA talent, had the #1 SBPI, earned the #1 overall seed & rumbled through the competition to win the national title. Perhaps the irony of UNC is their best SBPI team (see below) did not win the national championship while their 2nd & 3rd best teams did. Keep in mind since 2009 the Heels have not had an SBPI Top ten team – that is likely to change in 2015.
#17: 2004 Wisconsin 417.4 [25-7] – according to SBPI Bo Ryan’s best team was this version which checked in at SBPI #2 but only earned a #6 seed in the dance. Although they appeared to be given the cold shoulder on that low seed it seemed to play out accordingly as they were upended in the 2nd round vs. #3 seed / SBPI #23 Pitt by 4 points.
#16: 2010 Kansas State 420.9 [29-8] – Frank Martin’s best team according to SBPI & also the team he went deepest in the NCAA Tournament with was this squad who checked in at SBPI #3. They were slotted on the #2 line (not a huge injustice) & made a run all the way to the Elite 8 before losing to upstart Butler (SBPI #11). Butler would go on to lose to Duke in the national title game (their second straight appearance) while neither K-State nor Frank Martin (now at South Carolina) has reached the Sweet 16 since.
#15: 2003 Kentucky 421.0 [32-4] – this was Kentucky’s best team under Tubby Smith over his last five seasons checking in at SBPI #1 that year. They earned a #1 seed, advanced to the Elite 8 where they lost by 14 to #3 seed / SBPI #23 Marquette, led by Dwayne Wade. Wade was absolutely spectacular in that Elite 8 game posting one of the best performances in the history of the NCAA Tournament with 29 points (on 16 shots), 11 assists, 11 rebounds and 4 blocks (Triple-Double). Marquette of 2003 had the 3rd lowest SBPI ranking of any team that beat a Top 30 team of the last 12 seasons, and that perhaps caught up with them when they were destroyed in the national semifinal by 33 points to SBPI #2 Kansas.
#14: 2007 North Carolina 421.9 [31-7] – ironically the ’07 Heels, the best of the SIX teams that UNC has in the Top 100 of the last 12 seasons, did not win the national title. Almost as amazing this UNC team was not even the SBPI #1 in 2007 – that was the team discussed two spots down; they were however #2 & earned a #1 seed. They would reach the Elite 8 and face the Georgetown Hoyas, who despite being ranked just #23 according to SBPI were a #2 seed and had won both the regular season & Big East Tournament championships. At the IZOD Center in East Rutherford the Hoyas would take down mighty UNC in OT 96-84, earning the school’s first final four berth since 1985. Georgetown would go on to lose in the semifinals to SBPI #2 Ohio State while UNC would go on to reach the Final Four in each of the next two seasons, winning their 5th national title just 2 years later.
#13: 2008 Kansas 427.7 [37-3] – the 5th Kansas team on the list was the best of the Bill Self era, and not coincidentally they won the national title. What has some irony to it is they were SBPI #2 that season, just behind another team listed below (UCLA); keep in mind as mentioned above 4 of the top 5 SBPI teams reached the Final Four in 2008, and the entire Final Four was comprised of #1 seeds as well. In the national semifinal Kansas destroyed SBPI #5 UNC 84-66 while in the other matchup SBPI #4 Memphis beat SBPI #1 UCLA by 15. It led to an epic championship game which featured a pair of big name coaches in Bill Self & John Calipari both seeking their first national championship. Of course this game will be remembered for Memphis’ struggles from the FT line late in regulation allowing the Jayhawks to come back from a 9 point deficit with 2:12 remaining to win by 7 in OT. Not only was it Self’s first (and only) national title but it was the first time Kansas hoisted the trophy since Danny Manning’s 1988 team.
#12: 2007 UCLA 428.5 [30-6] – the first of two Bruins’ teams in the Top 12 is the ’07 version that was SBPI #1 (was also the 2nd year of a 4 year run where the Bruins never finished outside the Top 6 in SBPI ’06-’09) yet only earned a #2 seed (Kansas was #1) but stayed out West. Playing in Sacramento then San Jose was perfect for the Bruins despite being jobbed with the seeds as they were able to handle SBPI #10 Kansas easily in the regional final sending UCLA to their 2nd straight Final Four. It was there they met defending national champion Florida, who had an SBPI of just #9 but a ton of experience & NBA talent on their roster. They dropped a 10pt decision there as Florida would go on to win their 2nd straight national title. UCLA would be back the following season – see below.
#11: 2014 Florida 432.0 [36-3] – amazingly this is just the 2nd Billy Donovan team that has landed inside the Top 100 of the last 12 seasons despite the fact UF has won 2 national titles, albeit in back to back seasons – and the fact they were SBPI ranked #8 & #9 those two seasons. Last year’s Gators team battled Arizona for the top spot most of the season, and pulled away late mostly following the injury to Arizona’s Brandon Ashley. Following 3 straight Elite 8 season’s this Gators team was able to secure the school’s first Final Four appearance since 2007 but were upended by eventual champion UConn in the national semifinals.
#10: 2010 West Virginia 434.0 [31-7] – the 2010 WVU team was SBPI #2 and leveraged a Big East Tournament championship into a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Mountaineers reached the Final Four for just the 2nd time in school history before bowing out to SBPI #1 Duke (see below for more on that team). This was also Bob Huggins’ first Final Four appearance since 1992 with Cincinnati & the Mountaineers have not been to the Sweet 16 since.
#9: 2008 UCLA 436.0 [35-4] – this was UCLA’s best team of the last 12 seasons & 9th best rating of any team during that time period. They were ranked SBPI #1 in 2008, earned a #1 seed but were upended vs. SBPI #4 Memphis (#26 of L12 years, see above). This Bruins team made its 3rd straight Final Four appearance (have not been back since), set the school record for wins, won the Pac 10 regular season & tournament championships and were led by F Kevin Love although he came up small in the Final Four scoring just 10 points in their loss to Memphis.
#8: 2011 Ohio State 438.9 [34-3] – OSU of 2011 is the first of just 3 teams in the Top 16 listed here that did not reach at least the Elite 8. This Buckeyes team was SBPI #1, earned a #1 seed & reached the Sweet 16 before falling to SBPI #4 Kentucky by just 2 points. Again, having a pair of Top 4 SBPI teams facing off in the Sweet 16 is far too early, and unfortunately for OSU that is how the cards fell in 2011. These Buckeyes started the season 24-0 before dropping their first game of the season at Wisconsin (SBPI #14) on February 12th. They bounced back beating Michigan State but lost their next road game, at Purdue (SBPI #2). They won the Big Ten regular season & tournament championships, and all 3 losses on the season came against SBPI Top 14 teams, with 2 of the 3 vs. Top 4 teams. This is the 2nd OSU team that is ranked inside the Top 8 of the L12 seasons, quite impressive; in addition although neither of those teams were able to win the title they both lost by just 2 points.
#7: 2009 West Virginia 445.2 [23-12] – WVU’s second Top 10 team was their ’09 squad which was SBPI #2 (see below for 2009’s #1 team) but only earned a #6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Despite being well under seeded WVU was not even able to escape the 1st round, falling to #11 seed Dayton who had an SBPI of #62, the lowest rated team to beat a Top 55 team from this list. What’s more they are also the only team inside that same Top 55 to lose in the 1st round – both points go back to #56 Villanova. These Mountaineers seem to be a clear outlier, mostly inflated by a Top 10 SOS however 6 of their 12 losses were by 6 points or less & their final one in the NCAA Tournament was by 8.
#6: 2006 Villanova 448.4 [28-5] – this is the top rated Jay Wright team AND the second best Big East team of the last 12 years – which was the Sr. season for the quad of recruits mentioned above. This Villanova team had the biggest margin between #1 & #2 in a single season as they would have been 6.5pt favorites over SBPI #2 Texas that season according to SBPI! 2006 Nova would tie UConn for the Big East regular season championship (both 3 full games ahead of the next team), reach the Elite 8 before falling to SBPI #8 Florida, who would go on to win the first of back to back championships that season.
#5: 2013 Louisville 453.3 [35-5] – starting our Top 5 of the last 12 seasons is ’13 Louisville, who was SBPI #1 that season and went on to win the national championship. Four of our top 5 teams here at least reached the Final Four, with two winning it all – see below for the other one! This was such a strong Cardinals team – they won both the Big East regular season & tournament titles (the final season of the true Big East) while winning their first four NCAA Tournament games by the following margins, starting with the 1st round: 31, 26, 8, 22 (blasting SBPI #3 Duke by 22 points in the regional final). In the Final Four the games got tighter, but this team was inspired by Kevin Ware, their guard who suffered the gruesome broken leg in the regional final the week before. They took down SBPI #12 Wichita State in the semifinals & SBPI #10 Michigan in the championship game, securing Rick Pitino’s first title since 1996 Kentucky, and Louisville’s first since Pervis Ellison’s 1986 team.
#4: 2004 Duke 454.0 [31-6] – amazingly (or maybe not so much considering it’s Duke AND they have a whopping 9 teams on our Top 100 list) Duke has 3 of the top 4 teams of the last 12 seasons – but only one (#1 below) actually won the national championship! This version won the ACC regular season, secured a #1 seed and reached the Final Four where they fell to #3 seed & SBPI #9 Georgia Tech by just 2 points. This was not an overly talented Duke team as they had just 2 draft picks (Deng 1st, Duhon 2nd) on the roster. Nevertheless they played well together as a team, and lost a tight one in the Final Four.
#3: 2012 Ohio State 456.2 [31-8] – the best of the 5 Ohio State teams in the Top 100 was the 2012 version (SBPI #1), who like #6 Villanova had a huge edge on the 2nd best team that season Kentucky, as much as a 6.5 point edge when talking ATS. But as we know games do not always play out to what a line projects to be – as teams can play better or worse on any given night – and unfortunately for the Buckeyes they reached the Final Four where they fell to SBPI #3 Kansas by just 2 points. This team was ranked in the Top 10 every week of the season, but left Buckeye nation looking for their first championship since 1960. OSU has finished 1, 1, 4, 7 in SBPI ranking the last four years (#7 last season) so there is plenty of hope that national title may be right around the corner.
#2: 2009 Duke 457.8 [30-7] – Coach K’s second best team in SBPI from the last 12 seasons was the 2009 version, who secured a #3 seed despite being SBPI #1 but took a 23 point beat down in Beantown during the Sweet 16 vs. SBPI #8 Villanova – the only team in the Top 5 to not reach the Final Four. These Blue Devils won the ACC Tournament & were led by Kyle Singler & Gerald Henderson among others. Duke was ranked inside the Top 9 all season but getting swept by North Carolina likely kept them off the top line – that UNC team would go on to win the national title. Duke would bounce back angry the following season – see below.
#1: 2010 Duke 466.3 [36-5] – the TOP TEAM OF THE LAST 12 SEASONS of college basketball is the 2010 Duke Blue Devils who rebounded from the disappointment of the 2009 season to hoist their only national championship during this time period. In the 2010 NCAA Tournament Duke faced some stiff competition too: 2nd round vs. SBPI #14 California, Sweet 16 vs. SBPI #6 Purdue, Elite 8 vs. SBPI #22 Baylor, Final Four vs. SBPI #2 West Virginia & Championship game vs. #11 Butler. That is four of their six games vs. Top 11 SBPI teams from 2010. This team also won the Preseason NIT, co-champions of the ACC regular season & winner of the ACC Tournament & were never ranked outside the Top 10 all season with much of the same roster as the 2009 team that is ranked #2 overall just above.
Now that we have counted these teams down let’s take a look at appearances by team in the Top 100, listed in parenthesis:
DUKE: (9) '04, '05, '07, '08, '09, '10, '11, '13, '14
NORTH CAROLINA (6) '04, '05, '07, '08, '09, '11
PITTSBURGH: (6) '03, '07, '08, '09, '11, '14
VILLANOVA: (6) '05, '06, '07, '09, '10, '14
KANSAS: (5) '03, '08, '10, '11, '12
KENTUCKY: (5) '03, '05, '11, '12, '14
OHIO STATE: (5) '07, '11, '12, '13, '14
WISCONSIN: (5) '04, '05, '08, '13, '14
ARIZONA: (4) '03, '06, '13, '14
LOUISVILLE: (4) '08, '09, '13, '14
MICHIGAN STATE: (4) '05, '09, '12, '13
TEXAS: (4) '03, '04, '06, '11
WEST VIRGINIA: (4) '08, '09, '10, '11
UCLA: (3) '07, '08, '09
CONNECTICUT: (2) '09, '11
FLORIDA: (2) '05, '14
MARQUETTE: (2) '08, '09
MEMPHIS: (2) '08, '09
OKLAHOMA STATE: (2 '04, '05
PURDUE: (2) '10, '11
SYRACUSE: (2) '12, '13
TENNESSEE: (2) '08, '14
CLEMSON: (1) '07
ILLINOIS: (1) '05
INDIANA: (1) '13
KANSAS STATE: (1 '10
LSU: (1) '06
MISSOURI: (1) '09
OKLAHOMA: (1) '03
SAN DIEGO STATE: (1) '11
STANFORD: (1) '08
TEXAS A&M: (1) '10
VIRGINIA: (1) '14
WAKE FOREST: (1) '04
WASHINGTON: (1) '09
XAVIER: (1) '10
In addition here is a breakdown by year of the Top 100 teams:
2003 - 6
2004 - 6
2005 - 9
2006 - 4
2007 - 7
2008 - 12
2009 - 13
2010 - 8
2011 - 11
2012 - 5
2013 - 8
2014 - 11
That covers the countdown of College Basketball’s Top 100 SBPI teams of the last dozen years. As mentioned above these rankings are adjusted for SOS & also calibrated across seasons so I could provide estimated betting lines on a hypothetical game between any teams over the last 12 seasons including all teams listed above.
