Righty conservative says Repubs doomed in the Senate and in the White House in 2016

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http://blog.chron.com/goplifer/2014/11/the-missing-story-of-the-2014-election/

Wow, an objective Righty...thought I'd see a unicorn before I saw one of those...

[h=1]GOPlifer[/h] Which way is right? With Chris Ladd


[h=1]The missing story of the 2014 election[/h] Posted on November 10, 2014 | By chrisladd



Few things are as dangerous to a long term strategy as a short-term victory. Republicans this week scored the kind of win that sets one up for spectacular, catastrophic failure and no one is talking about it.
What emerges from the numbers is the continuation of a trend that has been in place for almost two decades. Once again, Republicans are disappearing from the competitive landscape at the national level across the most heavily populated sections of the country while intensifying their hold on a declining electoral bloc of aging, white, rural voters. The 2014 election not only continued that doomed pattern, it doubled down on it. As a result, it became apparent from the numbers last week that no Republican candidate has a credible shot at the White House in 2016, and the chance of the GOP holding the Senate for longer than two years is precisely zero.
For Republicans looking for ways that the party can once again take the lead in building a nationally relevant governing agenda, the 2014 election is a prelude to a disaster. Understanding this trend begins with a stark graphic.
Behold the Blue Wall:
http://www.270towin.com/

The Blue Wall is block of states that no Republican Presidential candidate can realistically hope to win. Tuesday that block finally extended to New Hampshire, meaning that at the outset of any Presidential campaign, a minimally effective Democratic candidate can expect to win 257 electoral votes without even trying. That’s 257 out of the 270 needed to win.
Arguably Virginia now sits behind that wall as well. Democrats won the Senate seat there without campaigning in a year when hardly anyone but Republicans showed up to vote and the GOP enjoyed its largest wave in modern history. Virginia would take that tally to 270. Again, that’s 270 out of 270.
This means that the next Presidential election, and all subsequent ones until a future party realignment, will be decided in the Democratic primary. Only by sweeping all nine of the states that remain in contention AND also flipping one impossibly Democratic state can a Republican candidate win the White House. What are the odds that a Republican candidate capable of passing muster with 2016 GOP primary voters can accomplish that feat? You do the math.
By contrast, Republicans control a far more modest Red Fortress, which currently amounts to 149 electoral votes. What happened to that fortress amid the glory of the 2014 “victory?” It shrunk yet again. Not only are New Hampshire and probably Virginia now off the competitive map, Georgia is now clearly in play at the Federal level. This trend did not start in 2014 and it will not end here. This is a long-term realignment that been in motion for more than a decade and continues to accelerate.
The biggest Republican victory in decades did not move the map. The Republican party’s geographic and demographic isolation from the rest of American actually got worse.
A few other items of interest from the 2014 election results:
- Republican Senate candidates lost every single race behind the Blue Wall. Every one.
- Behind the Blue Wall there were some new Republican Governors, but their success was very specific and did not translate down the ballot. None of these candidates ran on social issues, Obama, or opposition the ACA. Rauner stands out as a particular bright spot in Illinois, but Democrats in Illinois retained their supermajority in the State Assembly, similar to other northern states, without losing a single seat.
- Republicans in 2014 were the most popular girl at a party no one attended. Voter turnout was awful.
- Democrats have consolidated their power behind the sections of the country that generate the overwhelming bulk of America’s wealth outside the energy industry. That’s only ironic if you buy into far-right propaganda, but it’s interesting none the less.
- Vote suppression is working remarkably well, but that won’t last. Eventually Democrats will help people get the documentation they need to meet the ridiculous and confusing new requirements. The whole “voter integrity” sham may have given Republicans a one or maybe two-election boost in low-turnout races. Meanwhile we kissed off minority votes for the foreseeable future.
- Across the country, every major Democratic ballot initiative was successful, including every minimum wage increase, even in the red states.
- Every personhood amendment failed.
- For only the second time in fifty years Nebraska is sending a Democrat to Congress. Former Republican, Brad Ashford, defeated one of the GOP’s most stubborn climate deniers to take the seat.
- Almost half of the Republican Congressional delegation now comes from the former Confederacy. Total coincidence, just pointing that out.
- In Congress, there are no more white Democrats from the South. The long flight of the Dixiecrats has concluded.
- Democrats in 2014 were up against a particularly tough climate because they had to defend 13 Senate seats in red or purple states. In 2016 Republicans will be defending 24 Senate seats and at least 18 of them are likely to be competitive based on geography and demographics. Democrats will be defending precisely one seat that could possibly be competitive. One.
- And that “Republican wave?” In Congressional elections this year it amounted to a total of 52% of the vote. That’s it.
- Republican support grew deeper in 2014, not broader. For example, new Texas Governor Greg Abbott won a whopping victory in the Republic of Baptistan. That’s great, but that’s a race no one ever thought would be competitive and hardly anyone showed up to vote in. Texas not only had the lowest voter turnout in the country (less than 30%), a position it has consistently held across decades, but that electorate is more militantly out of step with every national trend then any other major Republican bloc. Texas now holds a tenth of the GOP majority in the House.
- Keep an eye on oil prices. Texas, which is at the core of GOP dysfunction, is a petro-state with an economy roughly as diverse and modern as Nigeria, Iran or Venezuela. It was been relatively untouched by the economic collapse because it is relatively dislocated from the US economy in general. Watch what happens if the decline in oil prices lasts more than a year.
- For all the talk about economic problems, for the past year the US economy has been running at ’90’s levels. Watch Republicans start touting a booming economy as the result of their 2014 “mandate.”
- McConnell’s conciliatory statements are encouraging, but he’s about to discover that he cannot persuade Republican Senators and Congressmen to cooperate on anything constructive. We’re about to get two years of intense, horrifying stupidity. If you thought Benghazi was a legitimate scandal that reveals Obama’s real plans for America then you’re an idiot, but these next two years will be a (briefly) happy period for you.
This is an age built for Republican solutions. The global economy is undergoing a massive, accelerating transformation that promises massive new wealth and staggering challenges. We need heads-up, intelligent adaptations to capitalize on those challenges. Republicans, with their traditional leadership on commercial issues should be at the leading edge of planning to capitalize on this emerging environment.
What are we getting from Republicans? Climate denial, theocracy, thinly veiled racism, paranoia, and Benghazi hearings. Lots and lots of hearings on Benghazi.
It is almost too late for Republicans to participate in shaping the next wave of our economic and political transformation. The opportunities we inherited coming out of the Reagan Era are blinking out of existence one by one while we chase so-called “issues” so stupid, so blindingly disconnected from our emerging needs that our grandchildren will look back on our performance in much the same way that we see the failures of the generation that fought desegregation.
Something, some force, some gathering of sane, rational, authentically concerned human beings generally at peace with reality must emerge in the next four to six years from the right, or our opportunity will be lost for a long generation. Needless to say, Greg Abbott and Jodi Ernst are not that force.
“Winning” this election did not help that force emerge. This was a dark week for Republicans, and for everyone who wants to see America remain the world’s most vibrant, most powerful nation.
 

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It's amazing the idiot lefties in here that still welcome the current administration and it's practices and cheer for the failure of the right.

I just hope that if a Republican wins the 2016 election the first thing he does is order about a dozen executive orders or use deceit and lies to cause more division in this country.

Things like

1) No more welfare except for people with debilitating conditions.
2) Reverse Obamacare
3) No more corporate taxes
4) Re-open ghitmo
5) No more immigrants
6) Build a 90 foot wall all the way across our southern border
7) Kick the DREAMERS out
8) Prayer in every school required every morning

Then we will see if the left likes the bed they have made.

Then we will see the true left come out
 

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It's amazing the idiot lefties in here that still welcome the current administration and it's practices and cheer for the failure of the right.

I just hope that if a Republican wins the 2016 election the first thing he does is order about a dozen executive orders or use deceit and lies to cause more division in this country.

Things like

1) No more welfare except for people with debilitating conditions.
2) Reverse Obamacare
3) No more corporate taxes
4) Re-open ghitmo
5) No more immigrants
6) Build a 90 foot wall all the way across our southern border
7) Kick the DREAMERS out
8) Prayer in every school required every morning

Then we will see if the left likes the bed they have made.

Then we will see the true left come out


This makes too much sense. Usually the poor uneducated just can't grasp a common sense idea.
 

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I notice that neither of you two nitwits addressed the article, which was, once again, written by a Republican conservative.
 

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I notice that neither of you two nitwits addressed the article, which was, once again, written by a Republican conservative.


It's only credible if he picks the R's to lose in 2016?

You do realize the same party rarely wins three straight presidential terms, don't you? The last time it happened was in 1988, and that was because the president who was finishing up his second term was so wildly popular that his VP won in a landslide by doing nothing more than riding the coattails. Don't think the same can be said for the popularity (or lack thereof) of your incumbent Stuttering Clusterfuck of a Miserable Failure.
 

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It's amazing the idiot lefties in here that still welcome the current administration and it's practices and cheer for the failure of the right.

I just hope that if a Republican wins the 2016 election the first thing he does is order about a dozen executive orders or use deceit and lies to cause more division in this country.

Things like

1) No more welfare except for people with debilitating conditions.
2) Reverse Obamacare
3) No more corporate taxes
4) Re-open ghitmo
5) No more immigrants
6) Build a 90 foot wall all the way across our southern border
7) Kick the DREAMERS out
8) Prayer in every school required every morning

Then we will see if the left likes the bed they have made.

Then we will see the true left come out

9) USA to grow a set and stand up to China. An American govt that cares about American interests, or at the very least, understand what such entails. How long have the quiet, ego-less Chinese been playing you boys? two decades?


-espionage (corporate, tech., ) , pegged currency (for how long was it? ), unlevel economic playing field (including China barring or charging HIGH tariffs on USA corporations on imports into China--build it there, :)...). ALL of this, of course, USA govt has been complicit.


anyone ever try going a month without buying a product with the 'made in China' stamp ? try it, fun exercise.



they are on pace to surpass USA as planet earth's NUMERO UNO GDP producer, the largest economy . Twenty five yrs ago were they even in the top 10? Fucking kudos. Equally impressive and worrisome (especially for neighboring countries) their military may become USA's equal. Think it's safe to say, USA's hegemony is done.


when will USA stand up?.................no tariffs? insulting.
 

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It's only credible if he picks the R's to lose in 2016?

You do realize the same party rarely wins three straight presidential terms, don't you? The last time it happened was in 1988, and that was because the president who was finishing up his second term was so wildly popular that his VP won in a landslide by doing nothing more than riding the coattails. Don't think the same can be said for the popularity (or lack thereof) of your incumbent Stuttering Clusterfuck of a Miserable Failure.

Given the worst is yet to come with this criminal regime, by 2016 the last thing Americans will want is more Democrats in office. Hanging them from lamp posts will be more like it.
 

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Given the worst is yet to come with this criminal regime, by 2016 the last thing Americans will want is more Democrats in office. Hanging them from lamp posts will be more like it.

Of course you’re correct, the worst is yet to come. Without a veto proof Senate there isn’t a hole hell of a lot of meaningful legislation that can be made law.

Conservatives are going to have to except reality and focus on stepping on Obama’s dick every chance they get.

We’ve manage to survive 6 years of draconian government, I think we can survive 2 more fairly easily.

I don’t know why any honest person would want to be president in 2016. This is one colossal cluster fuck of a country we currently live in.

It’s going to more than 10 men and a boy to right the ship.
 

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Given the worst is yet to come with this criminal regime, by 2016 the last thing Americans will want is more Democrats in office. Hanging them from lamp posts will be more like it.


You ever notice how the Stuttering Clusterfuck only wants immigrants to come from South America? It's not like he's pushing for Euro-amnesty or some kind of worldwide amnesty. There's a reason behind it, and where it could all head is extremely dangerous. Think race relations in this country are bad now? You ain't seen nothin' yet.

I'm starting to wonder if we might see a Civil War 2.0 erupt in this country if amnesty is passed via executive order, and I'm being dead serious. The Stuttering Clusterfuck is flirting with truly pissing off a lot of people, including a long list of lifelong dimocraps.

Lots of luck convincing unions and their bosses that flooding the labor market with unskilled workers won't affect them in any way. Have fun explaining to the minorities that you no longer give a shit about them because illegals became your top priority for future re-elections. And oh yeah, your dim constituents may have a thing or two to say about driving the party bus off the cliff and endangering their own places in the oasis. A lot of them are stupid, but not stupid enough to go down with the ship. Even the NY Times has editorials suggesting the Stuttering Clusterfuck rethink this very seriously. That's why I'm not so sure that all the blue states in dabitch's article will stay such a dark shade of blue.
 

Life's a bitch, then you die!
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Of course you’re correct, the worst is yet to come. Without a veto proof Senate there isn’t a hole hell of a lot of meaningful legislation that can be made law.

Conservatives are going to have to except reality and focus on stepping on Obama’s dick every chance they get.

We’ve manage to survive 6 years of draconian government, I think we can survive 2 more fairly easily.

I don’t know why any honest person would want to be president in 2016. This is one colossal cluster fuck of a country we currently live in.

It’s going to more than 10 men and a boy to right the ship.
Before the word Nazi’s show up…

Accept not except.

th
 

Life's a bitch, then you die!
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You ever notice how the Stuttering Clusterfuck only wants immigrants to come from South America? It's not like he's pushing for Euro-amnesty or some kind of worldwide amnesty. There's a reason behind it, and where it could all head is extremely dangerous. Think race relations in this country are bad now? You ain't seen nothin' yet.

I'm starting to wonder if we might see a Civil War 2.0 erupt in this country if amnesty is passed via executive order, and I'm being dead serious. The Stuttering Clusterfuck is flirting with truly pissing off a lot of people, including a long list of lifelong dimocraps.

Lots of luck convincing unions and their bosses that flooding the labor market with unskilled workers won't affect them in any way. Have fun explaining to the minorities that you no longer give a shit about them because illegals became your top priority for future re-elections. And oh yeah, your dim constituents may have a thing or two to say about driving the party bus off the cliff and endangering their own places in the oasis. A lot of them are stupid, but not stupid enough to go down with the ship. Even the NY Times has editorials suggesting the Stuttering Clusterfuck rethink this very seriously. That's why I'm not so sure that all the blue states in dabitch's article will stay such a dark shade of blue.

It’s not an endless trough. If immigration from South America soars, banana republic here we come.
 

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It’s not an endless trough. If immigration from South America soars, banana republic here we come.

That's right. Just go to any South American country and see how their people live - those are the cultural values the pro-illegal immigration crowd want to import to the United States.

Train2.jpg


illegal_immigrants.jpg


america-suicide-rf-cafe.jpg
 

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It's only credible if he picks the R's to lose in 2016?

You do realize the same party rarely wins three straight presidential terms, don't you? The last time it happened was in 1988, and that was because the president who was finishing up his second term was so wildly popular that his VP won in a landslide by doing nothing more than riding the coattails. Don't think the same can be said for the popularity (or lack thereof) of your incumbent Stuttering Clusterfuck of a Miserable Failure.

Yeah, I realize that, I also realize that "rarely" doesn't mean "never," and, even if it HAD been never, there was NEVER at MLB team that had won 4 straight playoff games that happened to go into extra innings-until they did. And we all remember how spot on your predictions were in the LAST presidential election, so, you'll pardon me if I take your opinion with a very large grain of salt. You and your scumbag party are butt fucked, DEAL with J-Doosh...
 

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Yep, he sure sounds like a "righty conservative" to me!

face)(*^%

Not sure if you're saying all conservatives are those things-and, if you were, you probably wouldn't be far off the mark-but if you actually read some of his other pieces instead of talking out your ass, you'd find that you haven't a clue what you're talking about...SHOCKING!
 

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Not sure if you're saying all conservatives are those things-and, if you were, you probably wouldn't be far off the mark-but if you actually read some of his other pieces instead of talking out your ass, you'd find that you haven't a clue what you're talking about...SHOCKING!

"climate denial"

Anyone who silently and meekly sits back watching your Fuhrer sink 3B into this liberal apocalypse Big Govt power grab without any legislative backing whatsoever, is no conservative.

"Righty Conservatives" don't use vacuous Rachel Madcow-like phrases like "climate denial" and "thinly veiled racism"...

What's next? Jon Gruber is really a Tea Partier???

face)(*^%
 

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"climate denial"

Anyone who silently and meekly sits back watching your Fuhrer sink 3B into this liberal apocalypse Big Govt power grab without any legislative backing whatsoever, is no conservative.

"Righty Conservatives" don't use vacuous Rachel Madcow-like phrases like "climate denial" and "thinly veiled racism"...

What's next? Jon Gruber is really a Tea Partier???

face)(*^%

Like I said, his earlier writing belies your moronic statements, and I notice you are focusing on the perceived "insults" and carefully avoid addressing the main crux-namely that you Repubs are gonna take it up the ass, again, in two years. But, feel free to rant and rave till then, lol...
 

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