I do not expect many to agree with me this week but that is OK. Beating Oklahoma in Norman is always big regardless how good or how bad Oklahoma is, and regardless how much time the team had to rest and refocus after that win. The letdown in some way, shape or form is always possible after a win there. Everyone talks about "must win big" and "style points" this week in games involving top 6 teams. I hear that every year, and every year some teams fail in this situation. I am taking OKST +28 (buying half, because I will not be around much this week - and this is why I am posting all of my plays earlier than usual this week).
Here is how I see the game. Baylor is now the lowest ranking 1 loss team in the playoff picture. At #7, they must pass 3 teams to get into the playoffs. The easy way to do it is to win out and have three one loss teams lose, but that is probably not going to happen. If Baylor does NOT win big against throw-away's Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, they are finished. Notice how the Commitee placed Ohio State ahead of them? Miss. State is also ahead of TCU. What does that tell you about the Committee's overall general feeling about the Big 12?
Adding BIG play UAB +21 (-125). UAB normally $ as home dogs. Lost in this situation before their bye week. Here is another chance for their backers to make some money. Senior day and last home game of the season. These two teams met @ UAB 4 times since 2006 and every time the underdog won the game outright. Marshall could be a little bit anxious here today as they play their last game of the season Friday with a chance to finish the season unbeaten. The pressure is on them, not on UAB. UAB has nothing to lose and a lot to gain. The win against Marshall would be one of their biggest wins in school history and they would clinch their first bowl appearance in a decade. The bye week came at the best possible time and they have everyone healthy and ready to go. Last season they were a 2-8 team in their 2nd to last game of the season and they forced OT as 17 points home dogs against Rice. They have a great recent history when playing their last home dog game of the season. As I said they covered easily in this spot last season vs Rice, then a year earlier they beat Marshall in that spot, and in 2011 they upset S.Miss as +23 dog in their last home game as underdogs. In 2011 they were not a home dog in any of their late games but they won their last home game of the season against Memphis.
Interesting info for Indiana game: Ohio State has some bad results in the past before facing Michigan. Last season they were back-doored against Indiana, in 2012 they won in OT, then in 2011 they were upset at home by PSU, in 2010 they edged Iowa by 3, in 2009 they had to go to OT against Iowa as 16.5 pts favorites, in 2008 they survived a scare as 8 pts favorites against Illinois, in 2007 they were upset by Illinois as 13.5 pts favorites. It looks like they always struggle before facing Michigan regardless how bad or how good Michigan is.
Plays:
Big: Oklahoma State +28
Big: UAB +21
Small: Indiana +35
Good luck.
Interesting info for Indiana game: Ohio State has some bad results in the past before facing Michigan. Last season they were back-doored against Indiana, in 2012 they won in OT, then in 2011 they were upset at home by PSU, in 2010 they edged Iowa by 3, in 2009 they had to go to OT against Iowa as 16.5 pts favorites, in 2008 they survived a scare as 8 pts favorites against Illinois, in 2007 they were upset by Illinois as 13.5 pts favorites. It looks like they always struggle before facing Michigan regardless how bad or how good Michigan is.
Plays:
Big: Oklahoma State +28
Big: UAB +21
Small: Indiana +35
Good luck.
Love the UAB play!
Wouldnt touch Indiana w/ a 10 foot pole. This year is just a different ball of wax because the committee has already set the precedent that if you don't win comfortably you will drop in the rankings as seen with TCU last week. If anyone is acutely aware of such a thing it will be Urban Meyer.
Wouldnt touch Indiana w/ a 10 foot pole. This year is just a different ball of wax because the committee has already set the precedent that if you don't win comfortably you will drop in the rankings as seen with TCU last week. If anyone is acutely aware of such a thing it will be Urban Meyer.
